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- jowelljowell
  ·2021-06-15
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- jowelljowell
  ·2021-06-15
  sweet
  Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support
  WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised
  Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support
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- jowelljowell
  ·2021-06-15
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- jowelljowell
  ·2021-06-15
  sweet!
  What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting
  As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again a
  What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting
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- jowelljowell
  ·2021-06-15
  nice!!
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14:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136326531","media":"Associated Press","summary":"WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised ","content":"<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.</p>\n<p>It will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.</p>\n<p>The Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned&nbsp;at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.</p>\n<p>Powell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.</p>\n<p>With the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.</p>\n<p>But the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.</p>\n<p>That occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.</p>\n<p>Having learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.</p>\n<p>Last week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Other inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.</p>\n<p>“I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.</p>\n<p>Another key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.</p>\n<p>So far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.</p>\n<p>“The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.</p>\n<p>As a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.</p>\n<p>“We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.</p>\n<p>At the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.</p>\n<p>Another challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.</p>\n<p>That’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.</p>\n<p>Fed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.</p>","source":"lsy1603278176698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Delicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDelicate task for Fed: When to pull back on low-rate support\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 14:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-c96d2b9c8a6a4e6320340dbc8bab449c><strong>Associated Press</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-c96d2b9c8a6a4e6320340dbc8bab449c\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-c96d2b9c8a6a4e6320340dbc8bab449c","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136326531","content_text":"WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation rising in a fast-rebounding economy, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to discuss when it will take its first steps toward dialing back its ultra-low interest rate policies.\nIt will be a fraught discussion, one likely to occur over several months. Yet the escalating inflation that has forced consumers and businesses to pay more has intensified pressure on the Fed to ensure that rising prices don’t become entrenched in consumers’ outlooks. If Americans start to anticipate higher prices, they might take actions — such as accelerating their purchases before prices rise further — that could send inflation even higher.\nThe Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation is rising much faster than it had projected earlier this year, though the Fed has characterized the price pressures as “transitory,” a consequence of supply shortages and a fast recovery. On the other hand, hiring has been slower than the benchmark that Chair Jerome Powell mentioned at a news conference after the Fed’s most recent meeting in late April.\nPowell said at the time that he would want to see a “string” of hiring reports showing about 1 million added jobs each month. The job market has yet to reach that total in any month this year, though employers have posted a record-high number of open jobs.\nWith the economic picture still clouded by the chaos of reopening from the recession, no major decisions are expected Wednesday when the Fed’s latest policy meeting ends and Powell holds a news conference. The Fed is set to keep its key short-term rate near zero and to continue buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those purchases are intended to keep longer-term rates low to encourage borrowing and spending.\nBut the Fed’s policymaking committee appears likely to start discussing the timing and mechanics of gradually reducing its bond purchases. Communicating that decision to the public will be a sensitive task. If the Fed indicates that it will taper its purchases earlier than markets expect, it risks a repeat of the “taper tantrum” in 2013.\nThat occurred when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets by suggesting that the Fed could taper its bond purchases “in the next few meetings” — sooner than traders had expected. Bernanke’s remarks sent longer-term bond yields surging.\nHaving learned from that incident, Powell will likely have any tapering action follow the Fed’s 2017 decision to slowly reduce the bond holdings it had accumulated after the Great Recession. The first hint of that plan emerged six months before a final decision was made. Economists expect a similar timeline now, which suggests that any tapering won’t occur before year’s end.\nLast week, the government reported that inflationjumped to 5% in Maycompared with a year earlier — the largest 12-month spike since 2008. The increase was driven partly by a huge rise in used car prices, which have soared as shortages of semiconductors have slowed vehicle production. Auto rental companies have had to buy up used cars to rebuild their fleets, much of which were sold off in the pandemic.\nOther inflation drivers have included services, like airline tickets, car rentals and hotel rooms, for which prices had tumbled at the outset of COVID-19 outbreak and are now regaining pre-pandemic levels. The reopening of the U.S. economy has also forced up prices for clothing, as more people return to work in person. Such price increases may not last.\n“I think they still feel pretty strongly that what we’re seeing is transitory,” said Steve Friedman, an economist at investment firm Mackay Shields and a former senior staffer at the New York Federal Reserve Bank.\nAnother key consideration is whether inflation persists long enough to affect the public’s behavior. If Americans start expecting price increases, those expectations can become self-fulfilling.\nSo far, bond yields and consumer surveys suggest that while higher inflation is expected in the short term, investors and most of the public expect only modest price gains in the long run. Powell has long maintained that the public’s perceptions of future inflation evolve only slowly.\n“The sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior,” Lael Brainard, one of six governors on the Fed’s board, said earlier this month.\nAs a result, the policymakers may begin discussing a tapering of their bond purchases this week. But several more months will likely elapse before a decision is made.\n“We have to be thinking ahead, planning ahead, and so I do think it makes sense for us to be thinking through the various options that we may have in the future,” John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance early this month.\nAt the same time, Williams, who is seen as close to Powell, said that “to my mind, we’re still quite a ways off from reaching the substantial further progress that we’re really looking for” to start slowing the bond purchases.\nAnother challenge is that the Fed officials have never defined what “substantial further progress” toward its dual goals of full employment and inflation at or slightly above 2% would look like.\nThat’s one issue that policymakers will need to discuss, Friedman said, along with how quickly they will reduce their bond purchases once the tapering begins. Another is whether they should reduce their purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds at the same pace. Some economists favor sharper reductions to purchases of mortgage bonds, which, they argue, now provide an unnecessary boost to the housing market.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed will also update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. Many economists expect the officials to signal that they expect to start raising their benchmark rate in late 2023. That would mark a shift: The policymakers’ previous forecast in March had shown no rate hike through 2023.\nFed officials will also likely sharply increase their forecast for inflation this year, but only slightly for the following two years, to show that they expect price increases to wane.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187387498,"gmtCreate":1623741670314,"gmtModify":1634029276295,"author":{"id":"3570418864419786","authorId":"3570418864419786","name":"jowell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570418864419786","idStr":"3570418864419786"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"sick","listText":"sick","text":"sick","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187387498","repostId":"2143973689","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187387644,"gmtCreate":1623741654988,"gmtModify":1634029276660,"author":{"id":"3570418864419786","authorId":"3570418864419786","name":"jowell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570418864419786","idStr":"3570418864419786"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"sweet!","listText":"sweet!","text":"sweet!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187387644","repostId":"1138219989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138219989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623650085,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138219989?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138219989","media":"Barrons","summary":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again a","content":"<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.</p>\n<p>We all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).</p>\n<p>We’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted&nbsp;on the Fed’s website&nbsp;at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.</p>\n<p>The “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.</p>\n<p>The markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for&nbsp;Natixis.</p>\n<p>Long before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.</p>\n<p>The key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.</p>\n<p>But the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed&nbsp;a record 9.3 million unfilled openings&nbsp;in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.</p>\n<p>Anecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.</p>\n<p>Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.</p>\n<p>At that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 13:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138219989","content_text":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.\nWe all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).\nWe’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted on the Fed’s website at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.\nThe “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.\nThe markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for Natixis.\nLong before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.\nThe key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.\nBut the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed a record 9.3 million unfilled openings in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.\nAnecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.\nJefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.\nAt that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187387322,"gmtCreate":1623741618466,"gmtModify":1634029276906,"author":{"id":"3570418864419786","authorId":"3570418864419786","name":"jowell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570418864419786","idStr":"3570418864419786"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice!!","listText":"nice!!","text":"nice!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187387322","repostId":"2143178756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}