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- Medini13Medini13
  ·2021-11-26
  Nice
  Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'
  Summary Qualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industria
  Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'
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- Medini13Medini13
  ·2021-10-04
  Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,281 评论
  5
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- Medini13Medini13
  ·2021-10-02
  Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  932 评论
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- Medini13Medini13
  ·2021-10-01
  Nice
  Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction
  Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business,
  Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction
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- Medini13Medini13
  ·2021-09-30
  Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,029 评论
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- Medini13Medini13
  ·2021-09-29
  Nice
  Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"
  Summary Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect
  Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"
  1,046 1
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- Medini13Medini13
  ·2021-09-28
  Nice
  Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's "Strong Rebound", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment
  For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumb
  Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's "Strong Rebound", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment
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- Medini13Medini13
  ·2021-09-24
  Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  493 1
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- Medini13Medini13
  ·2021-09-22
  Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Medini13Medini13
  ·2021-09-21
  Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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,"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877117231","repostId":"1174337163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174337163","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637897193,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1174337163?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174337163","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industria","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Qualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.</li>\n <li>Its recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.</li>\n <li>After a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa6af8989c0e13371421d6fed2fac8e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>QUALCOMM</b>(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.</p>\n<p><b>Background</b></p>\n<p>About two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from&nbsp;<b>MediaTek</b>(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing&nbsp;<b>Apple’s</b>(AAPL) modem business.</p>\n<p>Since my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b777c551db65315946aa3d0e67786e9\" tg-width=\"258\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>After a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.</p>\n<p><b>Recent Earnings</b></p>\n<p>Qualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.</p>\n<p>For the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.</p>\n<p>In FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ba047cfae2944b81902cd46d4028cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p>\n<p>Qualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab453c09529203bf11d1d892cf4bb51\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"182\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p>\n<p>Despite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.</p>\n<p>I see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.</p>\n<p>This clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.</p>\n<p>Regarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.</p>\n<p>Qualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.</p>\n<p>This is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently that<b>Apple</b>(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Day</b></p>\n<p>As I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.</p>\n<p>Its growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.</p>\n<p>The company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9b8a9143bcaf8706b35feb39aac5ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p>\n<p>Qualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe04cb81f8fa2aba439f6f5309780c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p>\n<p>In the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/552a1a716059d719fc6e64b861f09a8d\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p>\n<p>Regarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.</p>\n<p>However, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.</p>\n<p><b>Estimates &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Regarding medium-term&nbsp;estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.</p>\n<p>For the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.</p>\n<p>Its bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.</p>\n<p>Regarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.</p>\n<p>Based on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.</p>\n<p>This means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.</p>\n<p>Note that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb82ba4ac66c3ed8128484453fc4730c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg.</span></p>\n<p><b>Bottom Line</b></p>\n<p>Qualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.</p>\n<p>However, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-26 11:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471977-qualcomm-stock-strong-rally-now-hold><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nQualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.\nIts recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471977-qualcomm-stock-strong-rally-now-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471977-qualcomm-stock-strong-rally-now-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174337163","content_text":"Summary\n\nQualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.\nIts recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.\nAfter a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.\n\nG0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nQUALCOMM(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.\nBackground\nAbout two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing Apple’s(AAPL) modem business.\nSince my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.\nSource: Seeking Alpha.\nAfter a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.\nRecent Earnings\nQualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.\nFor the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.\nIn FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).\nSource: Qualcomm.\nQualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nDespite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.\nI see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.\nThis clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.\nRegarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.\nQualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.\nThis is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.\nOn the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently thatApple(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.\nNevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.\nInvestor Day\nAs I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.\nIts growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.\nThe company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nQualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nIn the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nRegarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.\nHowever, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.\nEstimates & Valuation\nRegarding medium-term estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.\nFor the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.\nIts bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.\nRegarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.\nBased on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.\nThis means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.\nNote that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.\nSource: Bloomberg.\nBottom Line\nQualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.\nHowever, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867441202,"gmtCreate":1633310732421,"gmtModify":1633310732856,"author":{"id":"3574934794715748","authorId":"3574934794715748","name":"Medini13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c405cab753c37ca8069a09a8847ddc1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574934794715748","authorIdStr":"3574934794715748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867441202","repostId":"2172896395","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864799853,"gmtCreate":1633145014111,"gmtModify":1633145014402,"author":{"id":"3574934794715748","authorId":"3574934794715748","name":"Medini13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c405cab753c37ca8069a09a8847ddc1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574934794715748","authorIdStr":"3574934794715748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864799853","repostId":"2172963995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864968029,"gmtCreate":1633049760083,"gmtModify":1633049760361,"author":{"id":"3574934794715748","authorId":"3574934794715748","name":"Medini13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c405cab753c37ca8069a09a8847ddc1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574934794715748","authorIdStr":"3574934794715748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864968029","repostId":"1124647688","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124647688","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633048079,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124647688?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124647688","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, ","content":"<p>Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.</p>\n<p>The Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000&nbsp;in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”</p>\n<p>The academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.</p>\n<p>Parts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.</p>\n<p><b>Read:</b>Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years</p>\n<p><b>Also:</b>Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022</p>\n<p>“It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”</p>\n<p>The rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.</p>\n<p>Powell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”</p>\n<p>However, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.</p>\n<p>Siegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>A correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProfessor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-01 08:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/professor-who-called-dow-20-000-says-hes-nervous-about-trends-in-inflation-that-could-spark-a-stock-market-correction-11632949212?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/professor-who-called-dow-20-000-says-hes-nervous-about-trends-in-inflation-that-could-spark-a-stock-market-correction-11632949212?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/professor-who-called-dow-20-000-says-hes-nervous-about-trends-in-inflation-that-could-spark-a-stock-market-correction-11632949212?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1124647688","content_text":"Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.\nThe Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000 in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”\nThe academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.\nParts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.\nRead:Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years\nAlso:Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022\n“It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”\nThe rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.\nPowell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”\nHowever, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.\nSiegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.\nOn Wednesday, the S&P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.\nA correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.\nMeanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865185499,"gmtCreate":1632961276663,"gmtModify":1632961276977,"author":{"id":"3574934794715748","authorId":"3574934794715748","name":"Medini13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c405cab753c37ca8069a09a8847ddc1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574934794715748","authorIdStr":"3574934794715748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865185499","repostId":"2171300933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862583658,"gmtCreate":1632890212229,"gmtModify":1632890212498,"author":{"id":"3574934794715748","authorId":"3574934794715748","name":"Medini13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c405cab753c37ca8069a09a8847ddc1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574934794715748","authorIdStr":"3574934794715748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862583658","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>\n <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>\n <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p>\n<p>Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>\n <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>\n <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–\n <i>Investopedia</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>\n</blockquote>\n<ul>\n <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p>\n<p><b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p>\n<p>It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p>\n<p><b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p>\n<p>A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p>\n<p>Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li>\n</ol>\n<p>It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p>\n<p><b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p>\n<p>As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p>\n<p>As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p>\n<p>There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p>\n<p>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p>\n<p>It likely isn’t.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-29 10:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866278477,"gmtCreate":1632787887799,"gmtModify":1632797590986,"author":{"id":"3574934794715748","authorId":"3574934794715748","name":"Medini13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c405cab753c37ca8069a09a8847ddc1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574934794715748","authorIdStr":"3574934794715748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866278477","repostId":"1166571782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166571782","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632787589,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166571782?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166571782","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumb","content":"<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&amp;P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"<b>the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction</b>\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87b7fac22f1a1f5db68fec641fc7528\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&amp;P.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45afcf0068538b4f56bc85f42af9e52f\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Well, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion,&nbsp;the S&amp;P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.</p>\n<p>So has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?</p>\n<p>Today we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly.&nbsp;<b>With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.</b>\"</p>\n<p>We'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Our equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.</b>The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The final component we spend a lot of time on is price.</b>While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short, \n <b>we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>This year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.</b>In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.\n</blockquote>\n<p>With that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks<b>\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"</b>and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"</p>\n<p>The other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.<b>The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.</b>This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"</p>\n<p>Curiously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f0bb937e8d564694c06b7e1362bd81\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&amp;P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&amp;P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namely<b>why did stocks rally so much into the end of the week</b>on what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?</p>\n<p>Here Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.</p>\n<p>The other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.<b>In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.</b>Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.</p>\n<p>Whatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&amp;P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"</p>\n<p>His conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fc56e35f140c96104f8d8aa0826fd3\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Getting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.</p>\n<p>It will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"<b>don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"</b>which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"<b>that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"</b>and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.</p>\n<p>* * *</p>\n<p>With all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Since the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts</b>. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e643723cfa540ad52a1dcebcba24f3\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<blockquote>\n We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation. \n <b>Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&amp;P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5496394c7a42ab136f68ba74c64cf83\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6beae58fd458a45024d160d45b4684\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>No surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:</p>\n<p><b>2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...</b>we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates<b>, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects</b>.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e80ec048b5856ebf2159d1d9d0151334\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Further, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c8fcfa4bb23d953d8c2079bc1a0ec5\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—<b>in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216bbe5eae73445b35a9152e741dccef\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Translation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-28 08:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166571782","content_text":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.\nWilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&P.\n\nWell, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion, the S&P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.\nSo has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?\nToday we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly. With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.\"\nWe'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:\n\nOur equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.\n\n\nThe final component we spend a lot of time on is price.While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short, \n we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.\n\n\nThis year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.\n\nWith that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"\nThe other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"\nCuriously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).\n\nIn short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"\nWhich brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namelywhy did stocks rally so much into the end of the weekon what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?\nHere Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.\nThe other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.\nWhatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"\nHis conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"\n\nGetting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.\nIt will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.\n* * *\nWith all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:\n\nSince the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.\n\n\n\n We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation. \n Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.\n\n\nNo surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:\n2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects.\n\nFurther, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.\n\nWilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"\n\nTranslation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861024249,"gmtCreate":1632444063081,"gmtModify":1632724684847,"author":{"id":"3574934794715748","authorId":"3574934794715748","name":"Medini13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c405cab753c37ca8069a09a8847ddc1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574934794715748","authorIdStr":"3574934794715748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861024249","repostId":"2169240695","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869860517,"gmtCreate":1632272835639,"gmtModify":1632801593576,"author":{"id":"3574934794715748","authorId":"3574934794715748","name":"Medini13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c405cab753c37ca8069a09a8847ddc1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574934794715748","authorIdStr":"3574934794715748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869860517","repostId":"2169324976","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860403410,"gmtCreate":1632193428530,"gmtModify":1632802149587,"author":{"id":"3574934794715748","authorId":"3574934794715748","name":"Medini13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c405cab753c37ca8069a09a8847ddc1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574934794715748","authorIdStr":"3574934794715748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860403410","repostId":"2169681424","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}