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Dendenislit

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- DendenislitDendenislit
  ·2021-05-26
  $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Thanks Aunty Cathy
  516 评论
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- DendenislitDendenislit
  ·2021-02-23
  Diamond hands
  Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up
  Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indica
  Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up
  434 评论
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- DendenislitDendenislit
  ·2021-02-12
  Moon!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  374 评论
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- DendenislitDendenislit
  ·2021-02-10
  Please like
  Baidu in talks to raise money for a standalone A.I. chip company
  KEY POINTS Chinese search giant Baidu is in talks to raise money for a standalone artificial intell
  Baidu in talks to raise money for a standalone A.I. chip company
  614 评论
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- DendenislitDendenislit
  ·2021-02-09
  Please like!
  Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us
  This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers
  Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us
  417 评论
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- DendenislitDendenislit
  ·2021-02-08
  Damn
  Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?
  Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial mark
  Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?
  383 评论
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- DendenislitDendenislit
  ·2021-02-08
  Okay!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  756 评论
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- DendenislitDendenislit
  ·2021-02-07
  The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  522 评论
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- DendenislitDendenislit
  ·2021-02-07
  Stop the $rope
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  673 评论
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- DendenislitDendenislit
  ·2021-02-06
  Rip
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  509 评论
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hands","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363060322","repostId":"1116870824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116870824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614051228,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116870824?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116870824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indica","content":"<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’</p>\n<p>The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.</p>\n<p>“In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"></p>\n<p>RAY DALIO</p>\n<p>Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.</p>\n<p>The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li>\n <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li>\n <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li>\n <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li>\n <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li>\n <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li>\n</ol>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>VIA RAY DALIO</span></p>\n<p>Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.</p>\n<p>Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>\n<p>Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-23 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’\nThe stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116870824","content_text":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’\nThe stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.\n“In brief, the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall. In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.\n\nRAY DALIO\nDalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.\nThe hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:\n\nHow high are prices relative to traditional measures?\nAre prices discounting unsustainable conditions?\nHow many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?\nHow broadly bullish is sentiment?\nAre purchases being financed by high leverage?\nHave buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?\n\nVIA RAY DALIO\nBased on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.\nDalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.\nFiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388745482,"gmtCreate":1613102639646,"gmtModify":1634554514076,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moon!&nbsp;","listText":"Moon!&nbsp;","text":"Moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388745482","repostId":"2110549049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381615037,"gmtCreate":1612961607629,"gmtModify":1703767508998,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381615037","repostId":"1186964240","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186964240","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612954337,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186964240?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-10 18:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Baidu in talks to raise money for a standalone A.I. chip company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186964240","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nChinese search giant Baidu is in talks to raise money for a standalone artificial intell","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nChinese search giant Baidu is in talks to raise money for a standalone artificial intelligence semiconductor company, a person with knowledge of the matter told CNBC.\nVenture capital firms...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/baidu-in-talks-to-raise-money-for-a-standalone-ai-chip-company-.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Baidu in talks to raise money for a standalone A.I. chip company</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBaidu in talks to raise money for a standalone A.I. chip company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 18:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/baidu-in-talks-to-raise-money-for-a-standalone-ai-chip-company-.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nChinese search giant Baidu is in talks to raise money for a standalone artificial intelligence semiconductor company, a person with knowledge of the matter told CNBC.\nVenture capital firms...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/baidu-in-talks-to-raise-money-for-a-standalone-ai-chip-company-.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/baidu-in-talks-to-raise-money-for-a-standalone-ai-chip-company-.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1186964240","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nChinese search giant Baidu is in talks to raise money for a standalone artificial intelligence semiconductor company, a person with knowledge of the matter told CNBC.\nVenture capital firms GGV and IDG Capital are involved discussions to pour money into Baidu’s chip firm.\nThe semiconductor business would aim to sell to chips to customers in various industries including automakers.\n\nGUANGZHOU, China — Chinese search giant Baidu is in talks to raise money for a standalone artificial intelligence semiconductor company, a person with knowledge of the matter told CNBC.\nThe move is emblematic of an ongoing push among China’s biggest technology firms to boost their prowess in the chip sector. And for Baidu, it marks a further effort to diversify its business well beyond advertising.\nBaidu’s Nasdaq-traded shares jumped more than 3.5% after hours. They climbed 6.67% on Tuesday.\nBaidu’s chip company would be a subsidiary, with the search giant likely to be the majority shareholder, the person said. Venture capital firms GGV and IDG Capital are involved in early stage discussions to invest in Baidu’s chip firm, the source added. Both firms have extensive investments in China.\nBaidu declined to comment when contacted by CNBC. IDG Capital was not immediately available for comment.Calls to GGV’s offices in Singapore, Shanghai and Beijing went unanswered.\nCurrently, Baidu has an in-house chip unit that has helped to develop its Kunlun semiconductors, designed to process huge amounts of data for artificial intelligence applications. But a standalone chip company is seen helping Baidu to better commercialize its technology, the source said.\nThe semiconductor business would aim to sell chips to customers in several industries including automakers, which are currently facing a global chip shortage.\nA standalone chip maker could also tie into other parts of Baidu’s businesses, such as its driverless car software.\nDiversification flurry\nBaidu’s move is part of push by the company to diversify its broader business — an effort which since September alone has seen the Chinese technology giant raise money for a biotech firm and a standalone electric vehicle company.\nAdvertising accounts for most of Baidu’s revenue currently, but other operations are contributing a growing percentage of sales. Ad-related revenue, which the company refers to in its earnings statements as online marketing services, accounted for around 80% of total revenue in 2018. That proportion fell to 71% in the third quarter of 2020, the most recent published results.\nBaidu’s semiconductor focus comes as the Chinese government tries to boost domestic independence around that critical technology — a trend that has accelerated during China’s trade war with the United States.\nChinese internet giant Tencent, the owner of messaging app WeChat,recently invested in an AI chip start-up.\nIn 2019, e-commerce company Alibaba launched its first chip to power artificial intelligence processes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383977346,"gmtCreate":1612834280585,"gmtModify":1703765620980,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like!","listText":"Please like!","text":"Please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383977346","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p>\n<p>What GameStop Taught Us</p>\n<p><i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p>\n<p><i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p>\n<p>marketfield.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p>\n<p>What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p>\n<p>That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p>\n<p>—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p>\n<p>Heigh-Ho Silver!</p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast</i></p>\n<p>adenforecast.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p>\n<p>—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p>\n<p>How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p>\n<p><i>Daily Insights</i></p>\n<p><i>BCA Research</i></p>\n<p><i>bcaresearch.com</i></p>\n<p>Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p>\n<p>A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p>\n<p>A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p>\n<p>—Mathieu Savary and Team</p>\n<p>High-Yield Opportunities</p>\n<p><i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p>\n<p><i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p>\n<p>carret.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p>\n<p>We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p>\n<p>—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p>\n<p>Emerging Markets Blast Off</p>\n<p><i>PCM Report</i></p>\n<p><i>Peak Capital Management</i></p>\n<p>pcmstrategies.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p>\n<p>What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p>\n<p>In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p>\n<p>—Clint Pekrul</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 18:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389690519,"gmtCreate":1612759657531,"gmtModify":1703764676090,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Damn","listText":"Damn","text":"Damn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389690519","repostId":"1180268693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180268693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612755259,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180268693?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180268693","media":"Barrons","summary":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial mark","content":"<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.</p>\n<p>I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.</p>\n<p>At that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.</p>\n<p>These contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.</p>\n<p>The Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.</p>\n<p>It is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us in<i>This Time is Different</i>that throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”</p>\n<p>Prices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.</p>\n<p>Rising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.</p>\n<p>Where can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.</p>\n<p>Watch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.</p>\n<p>We need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.</p>\n<p>This is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Can Investors Hide as a Bubble Inflates?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 11:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.\nI started ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-bubble-is-inflating-where-can-investors-hide-51612540675?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180268693","content_text":"Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears.\nI started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.\nAt that time, this viewpoint was greeted with a heavy dose of skepticism. Inflationary views were considered fringe. Respected economists were quick to point out the lack of demand for money relative to rapidly expanding supply, slack in the lockdown economy, and prevailing expectations for deflation based on recent history. Wall Street has little incentive to call a market bubble. Fees are made and bonuses paid when optimism, activity and volatility are high, not by predictions of impending doom. The euphorias of bubbles are like the best narcotics—stimulative and somewhat hypnotic. But the bigger the high, the worse the comedown.\nThese contrarian views of inflation and market correction have now become mainstream. The warning signs of market mania are evident inBitcoin(up 300% in a year), the deluge ofSPAC IPOs(always a signal of a top), exorbitantP/E ratios, and rapidly rising real estateprices. These, along with retail-driven short squeezes and mini-bubbles, are symptoms of underlying conditions set in motion long ago by a flood of liquidity unleashed by the Federal Reserve. This time is different, however, in one important way. When this bubble bursts, the Fed can no longer prop up the market by lowering interest rates. Real rates, which were about 4% before the global financial crisis, are now below zero almost everywhere.\nThe Biden administration is expected to unleash a blue wave of stimulus and other spending. This comes at a time when the revenue base is eroding, and the U.S. is no longer in a sound fiscal position. It is only a matter of time until government struggles to efficiently borrow against a gaping deficit and compounding debt. In 2020 alone, the U.S. government spent $3 trillion on pandemic relief while suffering a $2.1 trilliondecline in national incomefrom crippling lockdowns in our most economically important states, many of which continue today. By the end of fiscal 2020, total U.S. governmentdebtwas $27 trillion, up 20% from 2019 and triple the amount prior to the financial crisis. The Fed has absorbed a lot of this increase. Bond investors are rightly nervous.\nIt is no surprise that the Fed has since adopted apro-inflation stance. An unspoken objective is to erode the topsoil from the mountain of U.S. debt at the expense of Americans. Inflation is a hidden tax that will eat away our purchasing power. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff remind us inThis Time is Differentthat throughout history, “the main device for defaulting on government obligations was… debasing the content of coinage. Modern currency presses are just a technologically advanced and more efficient approach to achieving the same end.” They note, “government debt is… often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises.”\nPrices are now rising in inflation bellwethers such as industrial metals, energy, and food commodities. The dollar haslost85% of its purchasing power since 1970. While a majority of this can be attributed to high inflation in the 1970s, even the supposedly deflationary 21st century has witnessed the erosion of one-third of the value of the dollar since 2000.\nRising inflation expectations go a long way in explaining the vertiginous ascent of the equity markets in the face of a partially closed economy with muted growth. As lockdowns and travel restrictions ease, pent-up demand will pressure global supply chains and thus prices. We can expect to see a further acceleration of inflation as early as this spring as economies reopen.\nWhere can one thrive, or at least hide, in this environment? U.S. equity markets are vastly overvalued by any historic measure, but bonds and cash are both danger zones in inflation. While conventional wisdom says to stay invested, it may be a good time to take some chips off of the table. Resist “FOMO,” the fear of missing out. If one has to stay invested, avoid the temptation of high-flying tech and growth equities, which are the most overvalued, in favor of diversifying among recently abandoned dividend-paying value stocks and emerging markets. Inflation-sensitive commodity (food, metals, and energy) producers should perform going forward. Gold has a millennia-long history of serving as a store of value and inflationary hedge, but pays no dividends along the way.\nBitcoin similarly earns no yield. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, and, like fiat currencies, are worth whatever the market happens to believe. When the euphoria wears off, they may be hit hard. Besides, Bitcoin is a stacked game easily manipulated given the high concentration ofownershipby whales.\nWatch out for gearing in investments, whether in securities or real estate. If markets collapse, leverage will rapidly eat into the remaining value. Look for hidden exposure to risk (including inflation) in retirement accounts. Invest in hard assets not correlated to the markets. Stay liquid to exploit the inevitable correction.\nWe need to increase the pressure on our elected officials to cut the pork and reopen our economies. Americans want to get back to work. So-called stimulus funding is not getting into the hands of those who need it most. Ultimately, it’s the real economy, not financial markets, that drive growth and prosperity. That requires local businesses open, workers re-engaged, and productive capital investments made.\nThis is not doom and gloom. Since the problem is not a banking-sector credit crisis, and the underlying economy remains healthy (albeit weakened), postcorrection recovery may come more quickly and easily than following the financial crisis. While persistent inflation can create a host of problems, it usually supports fuller employment, and both producers and consumers will adapt to a changing price environment. In the meantime, it may be best to stay liquid and wait this one out. As spring follows even the darkest winter, the opportune time will come again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389874728,"gmtCreate":1612757352464,"gmtModify":1703764660361,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay!","listText":"Okay!","text":"Okay!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389874728","repostId":"2108336760","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389952801,"gmtCreate":1612670664503,"gmtModify":1703764212376,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones&nbsp;","listText":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones&nbsp;","text":"The only Sti I love is the Subaru ones","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389952801","repostId":"2109727286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389956401,"gmtCreate":1612670586603,"gmtModify":1703764211687,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stop the $rope","listText":"Stop the $rope","text":"Stop the $rope","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389956401","repostId":"2109670511","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380700010,"gmtCreate":1612582264230,"gmtModify":1703763832969,"author":{"id":"3574943968736312","authorId":"3574943968736312","name":"Dendenislit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8650796e48e17621c226e2bfd4ca39a4","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943968736312","authorIdStr":"3574943968736312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rip","listText":"Rip","text":"Rip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380700010","repostId":"2109722637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}