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- keatwongkeatwong
  ·2021-10-11
  like like
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- keatwongkeatwong
  ·2021-10-10
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  Morgan Stanley is still calling for a 10%-20% crash — protect yourself this way<blockquote>摩根士丹利仍在呼吁10%-20%的崩盘——这样保护自己</blockquote>
  Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions. That makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief i
  Morgan Stanley is still calling for a 10%-20% crash — protect yourself this way<blockquote>摩根士丹利仍在呼吁10%-20%的崩盘——这样保护自己</blockquote>
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- keatwongkeatwong
  ·2021-10-08
  $ChemoCentryx(CCXI)$全部人瞄准50就卖。我看大家还是做好心里准备。空军要来了。。。
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- keatwongkeatwong
  ·2021-10-05
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- keatwongkeatwong
  ·2021-10-05
  cry cry
  @keatwong：
  [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]
  [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]
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- keatwongkeatwong
  ·2021-10-05
  [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]
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- keatwongkeatwong
  ·2021-10-05
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  Udemy files for U.S. IPO as remote learning shift drives revenue surge<blockquote>远程学习转变推动收入激增，Udemy申请美国IPO</blockquote>
  Oct 5 (Reuters) - Online learning platform Udemy Inc on Tuesday filed regulatory paperwork for an in
  Udemy files for U.S. IPO as remote learning shift drives revenue surge<blockquote>远程学习转变推动收入激增，Udemy申请美国IPO</blockquote>
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- keatwongkeatwong
  ·2021-10-01
  nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- keatwongkeatwong
  ·2021-10-01
  [开心]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- keatwongkeatwong
  ·2021-09-29
  [微笑]
  QQQ: Market-Implied Outlook To Early 2022<blockquote>QQQ：2022年初市场隐含展望</blockquote>
  Summary Options prices can be used to calculate the consensus outlook for QQQ, referred to as the m
  QQQ: Market-Implied Outlook To Early 2022<blockquote>QQQ：2022年初市场隐含展望</blockquote>
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like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826038021","repostId":"2174502904","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828037233,"gmtCreate":1633821155322,"gmtModify":1633821155457,"author":{"id":"3575785607031015","authorId":"3575785607031015","name":"keatwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b440c303dc2a35e0a2c45f896a7d779f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575785607031015","idStr":"3575785607031015"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828037233","repostId":"1190298937","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190298937","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633787347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190298937?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 21:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley is still calling for a 10%-20% crash — protect yourself this way<blockquote>摩根士丹利仍在呼吁10%-20%的崩盘——这样保护自己</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190298937","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.\nThat makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief i","content":"<p>Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.</p><p><blockquote>增长放缓和金融状况收紧。</blockquote></p><p> That makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, nervous.</p><p><blockquote>这让摩根士丹利首席投资官迈克·威尔逊感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> “In short, higher real rates should mean lower equity prices,\" Wilson wrote last week in a note to clients. \"Secondarily, they may also mean value over growth even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，更高的实际利率应该意味着更低的股价，”威尔逊上周在给客户的一份报告中写道。“其次，它们也可能意味着价值超过增长，即使整体股市走低。”</blockquote></p><p> Wilson also said in a recent interview that the firm's call for a 10%-20% correction would be led by tech stocks as earnings estimates are too high.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson在最近的一次采访中还表示，由于盈利预期过高，该公司10%-20%调整的看涨期权将由科技股引领。</blockquote></p><p> Within that context, Wilson advised investors to favor defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and financials.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，威尔逊建议投资者青睐医疗保健、必需消费品和金融等防御性板块。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a quick look at a few possible plays from those areas — one of them could be worth buying withyour spare change.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速浏览一下这些领域的一些可能的游戏——其中一个可能值得用你的零钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Financials: Bank of America (BAC)</p><p><blockquote>1.金融：美国银行（BAC）</blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Bank of America has streamlined and refined its business practices and operations to rise from one of the lowest rated banks in the country to the second-largest bank by assets (roughly $2.3 trillion in total assets). With assets of $3 trillion, JPMorgan Chase is the biggest.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，美国银行精简和完善了其业务实践和运营，从美国评级最低的银行之一跃升为资产第二大银行（总资产约2.3万亿美元）。摩根大通拥有3万亿美元的资产，是最大的。</blockquote></p><p> As the economy continues to recover from the pandemic and inflation continues to surge, interest rates are likely to rise, putting the bank is in a good position to continue its success. Banks benefit from higher rates through a wider \"spread\" — the difference in interest that they pay to customers and what they earn by investing.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从疫情中复苏，通胀继续飙升，利率可能会上升，这使该银行处于继续取得成功的有利位置。银行通过更大的“利差”（他们支付给客户的利息与他们通过投资赚取的利息之间的差额）从更高的利率中受益。</blockquote></p><p> And despite not quite hitting its earning mark last quarter, Bank of America delivered shareholders a dividend hike — upping its yield 17% from 18 cents to 21 cents per share. Currently, the shares offer a dividend yield of 1.9%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上个季度没有完全达到盈利水平，但美国银行还是向股东提高了股息，将其收益率从每股18美分提高到21美分，增加了17%。目前，该股的股息率为1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Consumer Staples: PepsiCo (PEP)</p><p><blockquote>2.必需消费品：百事可乐（PEP）</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico is so much more than a major cola and soda brand. Most consumers will be aware that Mountain Dew and Gatorade fall under the Pepsico umbrella.</p><p><blockquote>百事可乐不仅仅是一个主要的可乐和苏打水品牌。大多数消费者都会意识到激浪和佳得乐属于百事可乐旗下。</blockquote></p><p> But this food and beverage juggernaut also owns Frito-Lay, Quaker Foods, Tropicana, SodaStream and dozens of other brands across the world.</p><p><blockquote>但这家食品和饮料巨头还在全球拥有菲多利、桂格食品、纯果乐、SodaStream和数十个其他品牌。</blockquote></p><p> With everyone spending so much time at home, snack food consumption went way up during the pandemic — which was great news for Pepsi. In July, the company reported that net sales rose more than 20% year over year to $19.22 billion — nicely above expectations of $18 billion.</p><p><blockquote>由于每个人都花这么多时间在家，疫情期间零食消费量大幅上升——这对百事可乐来说是个好消息。7月份，该公司报告净销售额同比增长超过20%，达到192.2亿美元，远高于180亿美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> And the company is passing on some of those sweet (or salty, depending on your taste) dollars to shareholders through healthy dividends, which have been steadily increasing over the years. Over the past ten years, Pepsico's dividend has grown at a compounded rate of 7.7% versus 6.1% from its main rival Coca-Cola.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过健康的股息将一些甜的（或咸的，取决于你的口味）美元传递给股东，这些年来股息一直在稳步增加。过去十年，百事可乐的股息复合增长率为7.7%，而其主要竞争对手可口可乐的股息复合增长率为6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico shares offer a dividend yield of 2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>百事公司股票的股息率为2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Health care: Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)</p><p><blockquote>3.医疗保健：强生（JNJ）</blockquote></p><p> Between its business in medical devices, pharmaceuticals and consumer packaged goods, Johnson &amp; Johnson has become a household name.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司的医疗器械、药品和消费品业务已成为家喻户晓的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> And more than that, its numerous subsidiaries including Band-Aid, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine and Clean &amp; Clear could stand on their own as successful brands.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，其众多子公司，包括Band-Aid、Tylenol、Neutrogena、Listerine和Clean&amp;Clear都可以独立成为成功的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ’s diverse holdings in the health care segment ensures it’s able to ride out any economic slumps. And with a handful of industry-leading drugs for immunology and cancer treatment under its Janssen Pharamceutica arm, there’s a good deal of growth opportunity for JNJ.</p><p><blockquote>强生在医疗保健领域的多元化持股确保其能够度过任何经济衰退。JNJ旗下的Janssen Pharamceutica部门拥有一些行业领先的免疫学和癌症治疗药物，因此JNJ拥有大量的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s Q2 results were buoyed by $12.59 billion in revenue from its COVID-19 shot over the year — with global sales of $164 million in the second quarter alone.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第二季度的业绩受到全年COVID-19注射收入125.9亿美元的提振，仅第二季度全球销售额就达到1.64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ shared its success with shareholders through a dividend of $1.06 in the third quarter, up from $1.01 six months before.</p><p><blockquote>强生通过第三季度1.06美元的股息与股东分享了其成功，高于六个月前的1.01美元。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently has a dividend yield of 2.7%.</p><p><blockquote>该股目前的股息率为2.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley is still calling for a 10%-20% crash — protect yourself this way<blockquote>摩根士丹利仍在呼吁10%-20%的崩盘——这样保护自己</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 21:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.</p><p><blockquote>增长放缓和金融状况收紧。</blockquote></p><p> That makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, nervous.</p><p><blockquote>这让摩根士丹利首席投资官迈克·威尔逊感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> “In short, higher real rates should mean lower equity prices,\" Wilson wrote last week in a note to clients. \"Secondarily, they may also mean value over growth even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，更高的实际利率应该意味着更低的股价，”威尔逊上周在给客户的一份报告中写道。“其次，它们也可能意味着价值超过增长，即使整体股市走低。”</blockquote></p><p> Wilson also said in a recent interview that the firm's call for a 10%-20% correction would be led by tech stocks as earnings estimates are too high.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson在最近的一次采访中还表示，由于盈利预期过高，该公司10%-20%调整的看涨期权将由科技股引领。</blockquote></p><p> Within that context, Wilson advised investors to favor defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and financials.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，威尔逊建议投资者青睐医疗保健、必需消费品和金融等防御性板块。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a quick look at a few possible plays from those areas — one of them could be worth buying withyour spare change.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速浏览一下这些领域的一些可能的游戏——其中一个可能值得用你的零钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Financials: Bank of America (BAC)</p><p><blockquote>1.金融：美国银行（BAC）</blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Bank of America has streamlined and refined its business practices and operations to rise from one of the lowest rated banks in the country to the second-largest bank by assets (roughly $2.3 trillion in total assets). With assets of $3 trillion, JPMorgan Chase is the biggest.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，美国银行精简和完善了其业务实践和运营，从美国评级最低的银行之一跃升为资产第二大银行（总资产约2.3万亿美元）。摩根大通拥有3万亿美元的资产，是最大的。</blockquote></p><p> As the economy continues to recover from the pandemic and inflation continues to surge, interest rates are likely to rise, putting the bank is in a good position to continue its success. Banks benefit from higher rates through a wider \"spread\" — the difference in interest that they pay to customers and what they earn by investing.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从疫情中复苏，通胀继续飙升，利率可能会上升，这使该银行处于继续取得成功的有利位置。银行通过更大的“利差”（他们支付给客户的利息与他们通过投资赚取的利息之间的差额）从更高的利率中受益。</blockquote></p><p> And despite not quite hitting its earning mark last quarter, Bank of America delivered shareholders a dividend hike — upping its yield 17% from 18 cents to 21 cents per share. Currently, the shares offer a dividend yield of 1.9%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上个季度没有完全达到盈利水平，但美国银行还是向股东提高了股息，将其收益率从每股18美分提高到21美分，增加了17%。目前，该股的股息率为1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Consumer Staples: PepsiCo (PEP)</p><p><blockquote>2.必需消费品：百事可乐（PEP）</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico is so much more than a major cola and soda brand. Most consumers will be aware that Mountain Dew and Gatorade fall under the Pepsico umbrella.</p><p><blockquote>百事可乐不仅仅是一个主要的可乐和苏打水品牌。大多数消费者都会意识到激浪和佳得乐属于百事可乐旗下。</blockquote></p><p> But this food and beverage juggernaut also owns Frito-Lay, Quaker Foods, Tropicana, SodaStream and dozens of other brands across the world.</p><p><blockquote>但这家食品和饮料巨头还在全球拥有菲多利、桂格食品、纯果乐、SodaStream和数十个其他品牌。</blockquote></p><p> With everyone spending so much time at home, snack food consumption went way up during the pandemic — which was great news for Pepsi. In July, the company reported that net sales rose more than 20% year over year to $19.22 billion — nicely above expectations of $18 billion.</p><p><blockquote>由于每个人都花这么多时间在家，疫情期间零食消费量大幅上升——这对百事可乐来说是个好消息。7月份，该公司报告净销售额同比增长超过20%，达到192.2亿美元，远高于180亿美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> And the company is passing on some of those sweet (or salty, depending on your taste) dollars to shareholders through healthy dividends, which have been steadily increasing over the years. Over the past ten years, Pepsico's dividend has grown at a compounded rate of 7.7% versus 6.1% from its main rival Coca-Cola.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过健康的股息将一些甜的（或咸的，取决于你的口味）美元传递给股东，这些年来股息一直在稳步增加。过去十年，百事可乐的股息复合增长率为7.7%，而其主要竞争对手可口可乐的股息复合增长率为6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Pepsico shares offer a dividend yield of 2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>百事公司股票的股息率为2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Health care: Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)</p><p><blockquote>3.医疗保健：强生（JNJ）</blockquote></p><p> Between its business in medical devices, pharmaceuticals and consumer packaged goods, Johnson &amp; Johnson has become a household name.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司的医疗器械、药品和消费品业务已成为家喻户晓的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> And more than that, its numerous subsidiaries including Band-Aid, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine and Clean &amp; Clear could stand on their own as successful brands.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，其众多子公司，包括Band-Aid、Tylenol、Neutrogena、Listerine和Clean&amp;Clear都可以独立成为成功的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ’s diverse holdings in the health care segment ensures it’s able to ride out any economic slumps. And with a handful of industry-leading drugs for immunology and cancer treatment under its Janssen Pharamceutica arm, there’s a good deal of growth opportunity for JNJ.</p><p><blockquote>强生在医疗保健领域的多元化持股确保其能够度过任何经济衰退。JNJ旗下的Janssen Pharamceutica部门拥有一些行业领先的免疫学和癌症治疗药物，因此JNJ拥有大量的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s Q2 results were buoyed by $12.59 billion in revenue from its COVID-19 shot over the year — with global sales of $164 million in the second quarter alone.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第二季度的业绩受到全年COVID-19注射收入125.9亿美元的提振，仅第二季度全球销售额就达到1.64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> JNJ shared its success with shareholders through a dividend of $1.06 in the third quarter, up from $1.01 six months before.</p><p><blockquote>强生通过第三季度1.06美元的股息与股东分享了其成功，高于六个月前的1.01美元。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently has a dividend yield of 2.7%.</p><p><blockquote>该股目前的股息率为2.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-still-calling-10-120000250.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行","JNJ":"强生","PEP":"百事可乐"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-still-calling-10-120000250.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190298937","content_text":"Slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.\nThat makes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, nervous.\n“In short, higher real rates should mean lower equity prices,\" Wilson wrote last week in a note to clients. \"Secondarily, they may also mean value over growth even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"\nWilson also said in a recent interview that the firm's call for a 10%-20% correction would be led by tech stocks as earnings estimates are too high.\nWithin that context, Wilson advised investors to favor defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and financials.\nLet's take a quick look at a few possible plays from those areas — one of them could be worth buying withyour spare change.\n1. Financials: Bank of America (BAC)\nOver the last decade, Bank of America has streamlined and refined its business practices and operations to rise from one of the lowest rated banks in the country to the second-largest bank by assets (roughly $2.3 trillion in total assets). With assets of $3 trillion, JPMorgan Chase is the biggest.\nAs the economy continues to recover from the pandemic and inflation continues to surge, interest rates are likely to rise, putting the bank is in a good position to continue its success. Banks benefit from higher rates through a wider \"spread\" — the difference in interest that they pay to customers and what they earn by investing.\nAnd despite not quite hitting its earning mark last quarter, Bank of America delivered shareholders a dividend hike — upping its yield 17% from 18 cents to 21 cents per share. Currently, the shares offer a dividend yield of 1.9%.\n2. Consumer Staples: PepsiCo (PEP)\nPepsico is so much more than a major cola and soda brand. Most consumers will be aware that Mountain Dew and Gatorade fall under the Pepsico umbrella.\nBut this food and beverage juggernaut also owns Frito-Lay, Quaker Foods, Tropicana, SodaStream and dozens of other brands across the world.\nWith everyone spending so much time at home, snack food consumption went way up during the pandemic — which was great news for Pepsi. In July, the company reported that net sales rose more than 20% year over year to $19.22 billion — nicely above expectations of $18 billion.\nAnd the company is passing on some of those sweet (or salty, depending on your taste) dollars to shareholders through healthy dividends, which have been steadily increasing over the years. Over the past ten years, Pepsico's dividend has grown at a compounded rate of 7.7% versus 6.1% from its main rival Coca-Cola.\nPepsico shares offer a dividend yield of 2.8%.\n3. 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And with a handful of industry-leading drugs for immunology and cancer treatment under its Janssen Pharamceutica arm, there’s a good deal of growth opportunity for JNJ.\nThe company’s Q2 results were buoyed by $12.59 billion in revenue from its COVID-19 shot over the year — with global sales of $164 million in the second quarter alone.\nJNJ shared its success with shareholders through a dividend of $1.06 in the third quarter, up from $1.01 six months before.\nThe stock currently has a dividend yield of 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cry","listText":"cry cry","text":"cry cry","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820768157","repostId":"820761229","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":820761229,"gmtCreate":1633435028164,"gmtModify":1633435028450,"author":{"id":"3575785607031015","authorId":"3575785607031015","name":"keatwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b440c303dc2a35e0a2c45f896a7d779f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575785607031015","idStr":"3575785607031015"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪] [流泪] 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19:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Udemy files for U.S. IPO as remote learning shift drives revenue surge<blockquote>远程学习转变推动收入激增，Udemy申请美国IPO</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151029217","media":"Reuters","summary":"Oct 5 (Reuters) - Online learning platform Udemy Inc on Tuesday filed regulatory paperwork for an in","content":"<p>Oct 5 (Reuters) - Online learning platform Udemy Inc on Tuesday filed regulatory paperwork for an initial public offering (IPO) in the United States, revealing a surge in revenue last year driven by the pandemic-led accelerated shift toward remote learning.</p><p><blockquote>路透10月5日-在线学习平台Udemy Inc周二提交了在美国首次公开募股(IPO)的监管文件，显示在大流行引领的远程学习加速转变的推动下，去年收入激增。</blockquote></p><p> The San Francisco-based company's revenue grew 55.6% to $429.9 million in 2020 from a year earlier, its filing showed. Udemy incurred a net loss of $77.6 million over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，这家总部位于旧金山的公司2020年收入同比增长55.6%，达到4.299亿美元。Udemy同期净亏损7760万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company, which did not share the terms for its offering, was valued at $3.3 billion during a financing round in November last year. It is expected to go public at a much higher valuation.</p><p><blockquote>该公司没有透露其发行条款，但在去年11月的一轮融资中估值为33亿美元。预计它将以更高的估值上市。</blockquote></p><p> Udemy is the latest in a string of online education companies looking to list their shares in New York, after Coursera Inc and Nerdy Inc went public earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>继Coursera Inc和Nerdy Inc今年早些时候上市后，Udemy是一系列寻求在纽约上市的在线教育公司中最新一家。</blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, about 42% of Fortune 100 companies used Udemy Business (UB), the company's corporate learning service, according to its filing. UB revenue more than doubled last year as global business leaders increasingly require employees to pick up new skills.</p><p><blockquote>根据其文件，截至6月30日，约42%的财富100强公司使用该公司的企业学习服务Udemy Business(UB)。随着全球商业领袖越来越多地要求员工学习新技能，UB的收入去年增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Udemy, which provides over 183,000 courses in 75 languages across more than 180 countries, launched a direct-to-consumer subscription earlier this year, an offering that is still in beta testing mode.</p><p><blockquote>Udemy在180多个国家/地区提供75种语言的183,000多门课程，今年早些时候推出了直接面向消费者的订阅服务，该服务仍处于beta测试模式。</blockquote></p><p> With a roughly $200 billion market opportunity, Udemy, which has more than 44 million learners on its platform, expects its estimated addressable market to grow in multiples due to the transition to online learning.</p><p><blockquote>Udemy拥有约2000亿美元的市场机会，其平台上拥有超过4400万学习者，预计由于向在线学习的过渡，其估计的潜在市场将成倍增长。</blockquote></p><p> It competes with the likes of Pluralsight, Skillsoft Corp and LinkedIn Learning in its corporate training offering and with Coursera and edX in its consumer-facing marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>它在企业培训产品方面与Pluralsight、Skillsoft Corp和LinkedIn Learning等公司竞争，在面向消费者的市场方面与Coursera和edX竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are the lead underwriters for the IPO, after which the company plans to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol \"UDMY.\"</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利和摩根大通是此次IPO的主承销商，之后该公司计划在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为“UDMY”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Udemy files for U.S. IPO as remote learning shift drives revenue surge<blockquote>远程学习转变推动收入激增，Udemy申请美国IPO</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUdemy files for U.S. IPO as remote learning shift drives revenue surge<blockquote>远程学习转变推动收入激增，Udemy申请美国IPO</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-05 19:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Oct 5 (Reuters) - Online learning platform Udemy Inc on Tuesday filed regulatory paperwork for an initial public offering (IPO) in the United States, revealing a surge in revenue last year driven by the pandemic-led accelerated shift toward remote learning.</p><p><blockquote>路透10月5日-在线学习平台Udemy Inc周二提交了在美国首次公开募股(IPO)的监管文件，显示在大流行引领的远程学习加速转变的推动下，去年收入激增。</blockquote></p><p> The San Francisco-based company's revenue grew 55.6% to $429.9 million in 2020 from a year earlier, its filing showed. Udemy incurred a net loss of $77.6 million over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，这家总部位于旧金山的公司2020年收入同比增长55.6%，达到4.299亿美元。Udemy同期净亏损7760万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company, which did not share the terms for its offering, was valued at $3.3 billion during a financing round in November last year. It is expected to go public at a much higher valuation.</p><p><blockquote>该公司没有透露其发行条款，但在去年11月的一轮融资中估值为33亿美元。预计它将以更高的估值上市。</blockquote></p><p> Udemy is the latest in a string of online education companies looking to list their shares in New York, after Coursera Inc and Nerdy Inc went public earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>继Coursera Inc和Nerdy Inc今年早些时候上市后，Udemy是一系列寻求在纽约上市的在线教育公司中最新一家。</blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, about 42% of Fortune 100 companies used Udemy Business (UB), the company's corporate learning service, according to its filing. UB revenue more than doubled last year as global business leaders increasingly require employees to pick up new skills.</p><p><blockquote>根据其文件，截至6月30日，约42%的财富100强公司使用该公司的企业学习服务Udemy Business(UB)。随着全球商业领袖越来越多地要求员工学习新技能，UB的收入去年增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Udemy, which provides over 183,000 courses in 75 languages across more than 180 countries, launched a direct-to-consumer subscription earlier this year, an offering that is still in beta testing mode.</p><p><blockquote>Udemy在180多个国家/地区提供75种语言的183,000多门课程，今年早些时候推出了直接面向消费者的订阅服务，该服务仍处于beta测试模式。</blockquote></p><p> With a roughly $200 billion market opportunity, Udemy, which has more than 44 million learners on its platform, expects its estimated addressable market to grow in multiples due to the transition to online learning.</p><p><blockquote>Udemy拥有约2000亿美元的市场机会，其平台上拥有超过4400万学习者，预计由于向在线学习的过渡，其估计的潜在市场将成倍增长。</blockquote></p><p> It competes with the likes of Pluralsight, Skillsoft Corp and LinkedIn Learning in its corporate training offering and with Coursera and edX in its consumer-facing marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>它在企业培训产品方面与Pluralsight、Skillsoft Corp和LinkedIn Learning等公司竞争，在面向消费者的市场方面与Coursera和edX竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are the lead underwriters for the IPO, after which the company plans to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol \"UDMY.\"</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利和摩根大通是此次IPO的主承销商，之后该公司计划在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为“UDMY”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-online-learning-platform-udemy-103740377.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-online-learning-platform-udemy-103740377.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151029217","content_text":"Oct 5 (Reuters) - Online learning platform Udemy Inc on Tuesday filed regulatory paperwork for an initial public offering (IPO) in the United States, revealing a surge in revenue last year driven by the pandemic-led accelerated shift toward remote learning.\nThe San Francisco-based company's revenue grew 55.6% to $429.9 million in 2020 from a year earlier, its filing showed. Udemy incurred a net loss of $77.6 million over the same period.\nThe company, which did not share the terms for its offering, was valued at $3.3 billion during a financing round in November last year. It is expected to go public at a much higher valuation.\nUdemy is the latest in a string of online education companies looking to list their shares in New York, after Coursera Inc and Nerdy Inc went public earlier this year.\nAs of June 30, about 42% of Fortune 100 companies used Udemy Business (UB), the company's corporate learning service, according to its filing. UB revenue more than doubled last year as global business leaders increasingly require employees to pick up new skills.\nUdemy, which provides over 183,000 courses in 75 languages across more than 180 countries, launched a direct-to-consumer subscription earlier this year, an offering that is still in beta testing mode.\nWith a roughly $200 billion market opportunity, Udemy, which has more than 44 million learners on its platform, expects its estimated addressable market to grow in multiples due to the transition to online learning.\nIt competes with the likes of Pluralsight, Skillsoft Corp and LinkedIn Learning in its corporate training offering and with Coursera and edX in its consumer-facing marketplace.\nMorgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are the lead underwriters for the IPO, after which the company plans to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol \"UDMY.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864682206,"gmtCreate":1633097840798,"gmtModify":1633097841029,"author":{"id":"3575785607031015","authorId":"3575785607031015","name":"keatwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b440c303dc2a35e0a2c45f896a7d779f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575785607031015","idStr":"3575785607031015"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864682206","repostId":"2172968717","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864686616,"gmtCreate":1633097784218,"gmtModify":1633097787861,"author":{"id":"3575785607031015","authorId":"3575785607031015","name":"keatwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b440c303dc2a35e0a2c45f896a7d779f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575785607031015","idStr":"3575785607031015"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864686616","repostId":"1118501905","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862704615,"gmtCreate":1632909318651,"gmtModify":1632909318847,"author":{"id":"3575785607031015","authorId":"3575785607031015","name":"keatwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b440c303dc2a35e0a2c45f896a7d779f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575785607031015","idStr":"3575785607031015"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862704615","repostId":"1150995392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150995392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632909198,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150995392?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 17:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QQQ: Market-Implied Outlook To Early 2022<blockquote>QQQ：2022年初市场隐含展望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150995392","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOptions prices can be used to calculate the consensus outlook for QQQ, referred to as the m","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Options prices can be used to calculate the consensus outlook for QQQ, referred to as the market-implied outlook.</li>  <li>The market-implied outlook for QQQ was bullish at the start of 2021, but suggested that SPY offered a superior risk-return tradeoff.</li>  <li>The updated market-implied outlook for QQQ into early 2022 is bullish, with moderate volatility.</li>  <li>These results suggest the current elevated volatility, largely driven by fear of rising interest rates, is likely to be temporary.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432ed786a1c4dfdf56017543577ebc72\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1026\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Massimo Giachetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权价格可用于计算QQQ的共识前景，称为市场隐含前景。</li><li>2021年初，QQQ的市场隐含前景看涨，但表明SPDR标普500指数ETF提供了卓越的风险回报权衡。</li><li>QQQ到2022年初的最新市场隐含前景看涨，波动适中。</li><li>这些结果表明，当前的波动性上升（主要是由对利率上升的担忧驱动的）可能是暂时的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Massimo Giachetti/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Invesco QQQ ETF&nbsp;(NASDAQ:QQQ)&nbsp;is in an interesting place. The all-time high close for QQQ was $382.11 on September 7, 2021. At the current price of $360.81, QQQ is 54% above the pre-COVID 2020 high close of $234.64 on February 14, 2020. The trailing total returns for QQQ over longer periods are very high. The 3- and 5-year annualized total returns are 26.76% per year and 26.59% per year, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>景顺QQQ ETF（纳斯达克：QQQ）处于一个有趣的位置。2021年9月7日，QQQ的历史最高收盘价为382.11美元。QQQ目前的价格为360.81美元，较2020年2月14日新冠疫情爆发前2020年收盘价234.64美元高出54%。QQQ在较长时期内的跟踪总回报率非常高。3年和5年年化总回报率分别为每年26.76%和每年26.59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5866620d906e1fdbbbb095b7d343a3fa\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"139\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Trailing total returns for QQQ (Source: Morningstar)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>QQQ的追踪总回报（来源：晨星）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> QQQ, a growth-oriented index, has benefitted from several major trends over the past decade. First,growth stocks have absolutely dominated value stocks. Second, technological innovation is changing the world in dramatic ways, making the prospects for many names in the QQQ look like long-term winners. Third,low and falling interest rates and bond yields&nbsp;over the past decade (and longer) have provided a major tailwind for growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>QQQ是一个以增长为导向的指数，过去十年受益于几个主要趋势。第一，成长股已经绝对主导了价值股。其次，技术创新正在以巨大的方式改变世界，使QQQ中许多名字的前景看起来像是长期赢家。第三，过去十年（及更长时间）的低利率和债券收益率和不断下降为成长型股票提供了主要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> The value of a stock represents the net present value (NPV) of projected future earnings. The NPV is sensitive to the discount rate applied to those future earnings and the discount rate is determined by interest rates (low interest rates equate to low discount rates and vice versa). The further earnings are expected to occur in the future, the more sensitive a stock’s valuation is to interest rates. In effect, growth stocks have longer duration than value stocks, so growth stocks are more sensitive to interest rates. Higher P/E ratios can be justified when interest rates are low, for the same reasons.</p><p><blockquote>股票的价值代表预计未来收益的净现值（NPV）。净现值对应用于该等未来盈利的贴现率敏感，而贴现率由利率厘定（低利率等同于低贴现率，反之亦然）。预期未来出现的收益越多，股票的估值对利率就越敏感。实际上，成长型股票的久期比价值型股票更长，因此成长型股票对利率更敏感。出于同样的原因，当利率较低时，较高的市盈率是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> The market is currently struggling with expectations on rates and bond yields. The Fed is signaling increasing concern about inflation, which is driving up bond yields. QQQ has been declining, as expected.</p><p><blockquote>市场目前正在努力应对利率和债券收益率的预期。美联储表示对通胀的担忧日益加剧，通胀正在推高债券收益率。正如预期的那样，QQQ一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> I closely monitor the prices of options on indexes in managing my portfolio. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying index (QQQ, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is the market-implied outlook. For those who are unfamiliar with the concept, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.</p><p><blockquote>在管理我的投资组合时，我密切关注指数期权的价格。期权的价格代表市场对标的指数（在本例中为QQQ）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这是市场隐含的前景。对于那些不熟悉这个概念的人，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote></p><p> When I calculated the&nbsp;12-month market-implied outlook in January 2021, the results indicated a bullish view for QQQ. The probabilities of positive returns were consistently higher than for negative returns. In early March 2021, I&nbsp;compared the market-implied outlooks&nbsp;for major equity asset classes, and I got a bullish outlook for QQQ, but I also found that the S&amp;P 500 offered a more favorable risk-return outlook to early 2022 than QQQ.</p><p><blockquote>当我在2021年1月计算12个月市场隐含前景时，结果表明对QQQ持看涨观点。正回报的概率始终高于负回报。2021年3月初，我比较了主要股票资产类别的市场隐含前景，我对QQQ的前景看好，但我也发现标普500对2022年初的风险回报前景比QQQ更有利。</blockquote></p><p> For the YTD, QQQ has a total return of&nbsp;18.46%&nbsp;and SPY has returned&nbsp;19.56%. The market-implied outlooks for developed international stocks (calculated using options on EFA), emerging markets (using options on EEM), and small cap stocks (using options on IWM) were less favorable than those for QQQ and SPY. EFA, EEM, and IWM have YTD total returns of&nbsp;11.5%,-0.65%, and&nbsp;16.24%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>年初至今，QQQ的总回报率为18.46%，SPDR标普500指数ETF的回报率为19.56%。发达国际股票（使用EFA期权计算）、新兴市场（使用EEM期权计算）和小盘股（使用IWM期权计算）的市场隐含前景不如QQQ和SPDR标普500指数ETF。EFA、EEM和IWM年初至今的总回报率分别为11.5%、-0.65%和16.24%。</blockquote></p><p> With the increasing concerns about interest rates, and the QQQ having lost some momentum since reaching its all-time high, I have recalculated the market-implied outlook for QQQ.</p><p><blockquote>随着对利率的担忧日益加剧，以及QQQ自达到历史高点以来失去了一些动力，我重新计算了QQQ的市场隐含前景。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market-Implied Outlook for QQQ</b></p><p><blockquote><b>QQQ的市场隐含前景</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I have analyzed call and put options on QQQ at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022, to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.76 months (from now until that expiration date). I have also analyzed options expiring on March 18, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 5.6 months. I have chosen these two expiration dates to give a view into early 2022 and to get a sense of whether the outlook gets more or less favorable as we move through the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>我分析了QQQ上一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权，所有期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.76个月（从现在到到期日）的市场隐含前景。我还分析了2022年3月18日到期的期权，以生成未来5.6个月的市场隐含前景。我选择这两个到期日是为了展望2022年初，并了解随着我们进入第一季度，前景是更有利还是更不利。</blockquote></p><p> A key metric for the market-implied outlook is to see how closely the theoretical prices of options, as calculated from the market-implied outlook, matches the market prices of those options. The goal in calculating the market-implied outlook is to minimize the differences. For both expiration dates, the average difference between the theoretical and market prices of the options is within 0.2% of the market prices of the options. This is a very good agreement and adds confidence in the market-implied outlook.</p><p><blockquote>市场隐含前景的一个关键指标是查看根据市场隐含前景计算的期权理论价格与这些期权的市场价格的匹配程度。计算市场隐含前景的目标是最小化差异。对于两个到期日，期权的理论价格和市场价格之间的平均差异在期权市场价格的0.2%以内。这是一个非常好的协议，增加了对市场隐含前景的信心。</blockquote></p><p> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is in the form of a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and price return on the horizontal.</p><p><blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示形式是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴上，价格回报在横轴上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7973b66311844822a875f58a6f3230bd\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Market-implied price return probabilities for QQQ for the 3.76-month period from now until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>从即日起至2022年1月21日的3.76个月期间QQQ的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The market-implied outlook from now until January 21, 2022 is consistent with what we expect to see for a stock index. The probability distribution is negatively skewed, meaning that the probability of large negative returns is higher than for large positive returns of the same magnitude. There is an 8.5% chance of having a return of -20% or worse between now and January 21, 2022, as compared to a 1.7% chance of having a return of +20% or greater.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的市场隐含前景与我们对股指的预期一致。概率分布是负偏斜的，这意味着大的负回报的概率高于相同幅度的大的正回报的概率。从现在到2022年1月21日，回报率为-20%或更低的可能性为8.5%，而回报率为+20%或更高的可能性为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> There is a 61.5% probability of having a price return that is greater than zero, however. The peak probability corresponds to a price return of +6.25% over the next 3.76 months. The estimated volatility of QQQ for the 3.76-month period is 13.6%, or 24.3% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>然而，价格回报大于零的概率为61.5%。峰值概率对应于未来3.76个月+6.25%的价格回报。QQQ在3.76个月期间的预计波动率为13.6%，年化波动率为24.3%。</blockquote></p><p> This is a bullish outlook from now until January 21, 2022. With a peak-probability return of +6.25% and volatility (standard deviation of return) of 13.6%, this is a decent risk-return tradeoff.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日，这是一个看涨的前景。峰值概率回报率为+6.25%，波动率（回报标准差）为13.6%，这是一个不错的风险回报权衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/303255af18c88f690ba822dc8b72f81b\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Market-implied price return probabilities for QQQ for the 5.6-month period from now until March 18, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>从即日起至2022年3月18日的5.6个月期间QQQ的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking out to March 18, 2022, calculating the market-implied outlook using options that expire on that date, the view is consistent with the results to January 21, 2022. The distribution is negatively skewed, with annualized volatility of 24.8% (16.9% for the 5.6-month period). The peak probability corresponds to a price return of +8.7%. There is an estimated 60% probability of having a price return that is greater than zero for this period.</p><p><blockquote>展望2022年3月18日，使用该日到期的期权计算市场隐含前景，该观点与截至2022年1月21日的结果一致。分布呈负偏态，年化波动率为24.8%（5.6个月期间为16.9%）。峰值概率对应的价格回报为+8.7%。据估计，在此期间，价格回报大于零的概率为60%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> The market-implied outlook for QQQ to early 2022 offers a favorable risk-return proposition. The maximum-probability price return from now until January 21, 2022 is +6.25%, with annualized volatility of 24.3%. For context, these results may be compared to the equivalent values I calculated for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 (SPY) on September 12th: maximum-probability price return of +5% and annualized volatility of 20%. These values were calculated using options expiring on January 21, 2022. The options prices suggest that QQQ offers a higher projected return at higher risk, as expected. The market-implied outlook for QQQ to March has a maximum probability corresponding to a price return of +8.7%, with 24.8% annualized volatility.</p><p><blockquote>QQQ到2022年初的市场隐含前景提供了有利的风险回报主张。从现在到2022年1月21日的最大概率价格回报为+6.25%，年化波动率为24.3%。作为背景，这些结果可以与我在9月12日为标准普尔500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）计算的等效值进行比较：最大概率价格回报为+5%，年化波动率为20%。这些值是使用2022年1月21日到期的期权计算的。期权价格表明，正如预期的那样，QQQ在较高的风险下提供了较高的预期回报。QQQ至3月份的市场隐含展望最大概率对应价格回报为+8.7%，年化波动率为24.8%。</blockquote></p><p> While the outlook for QQQ derived from options prices is bullish, it is important to remember the difference between a probabilistic outlook (which predicts the probabilities of a wide range of outcomes) and a point outlook (one which predicts a single value). While the market-implied outlook for QQQ is favorable, there is a projected 40% chance of losing money between now and early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>虽然从期权价格得出的QQQ前景是看涨的，但重要的是要记住概率前景（预测各种结果的概率）和点前景（预测单个值）之间的区别。虽然QQQ的市场隐含前景良好，但从现在到2022年初，预计亏损的可能性为40%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: Market-Implied Outlook To Early 2022<blockquote>QQQ：2022年初市场隐含展望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: Market-Implied Outlook To Early 2022<blockquote>QQQ：2022年初市场隐含展望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 17:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Options prices can be used to calculate the consensus outlook for QQQ, referred to as the market-implied outlook.</li>  <li>The market-implied outlook for QQQ was bullish at the start of 2021, but suggested that SPY offered a superior risk-return tradeoff.</li>  <li>The updated market-implied outlook for QQQ into early 2022 is bullish, with moderate volatility.</li>  <li>These results suggest the current elevated volatility, largely driven by fear of rising interest rates, is likely to be temporary.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432ed786a1c4dfdf56017543577ebc72\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1026\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Massimo Giachetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权价格可用于计算QQQ的共识前景，称为市场隐含前景。</li><li>2021年初，QQQ的市场隐含前景看涨，但表明SPDR标普500指数ETF提供了卓越的风险回报权衡。</li><li>QQQ到2022年初的最新市场隐含前景看涨，波动适中。</li><li>这些结果表明，当前的波动性上升（主要是由对利率上升的担忧驱动的）可能是暂时的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Massimo Giachetti/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Invesco QQQ ETF&nbsp;(NASDAQ:QQQ)&nbsp;is in an interesting place. The all-time high close for QQQ was $382.11 on September 7, 2021. At the current price of $360.81, QQQ is 54% above the pre-COVID 2020 high close of $234.64 on February 14, 2020. The trailing total returns for QQQ over longer periods are very high. The 3- and 5-year annualized total returns are 26.76% per year and 26.59% per year, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>景顺QQQ ETF（纳斯达克：QQQ）处于一个有趣的位置。2021年9月7日，QQQ的历史最高收盘价为382.11美元。QQQ目前的价格为360.81美元，较2020年2月14日新冠疫情爆发前2020年收盘价234.64美元高出54%。QQQ在较长时期内的跟踪总回报率非常高。3年和5年年化总回报率分别为每年26.76%和每年26.59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5866620d906e1fdbbbb095b7d343a3fa\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"139\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Trailing total returns for QQQ (Source: Morningstar)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>QQQ的追踪总回报（来源：晨星）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> QQQ, a growth-oriented index, has benefitted from several major trends over the past decade. First,growth stocks have absolutely dominated value stocks. Second, technological innovation is changing the world in dramatic ways, making the prospects for many names in the QQQ look like long-term winners. Third,low and falling interest rates and bond yields&nbsp;over the past decade (and longer) have provided a major tailwind for growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>QQQ是一个以增长为导向的指数，过去十年受益于几个主要趋势。第一，成长股已经绝对主导了价值股。其次，技术创新正在以巨大的方式改变世界，使QQQ中许多名字的前景看起来像是长期赢家。第三，过去十年（及更长时间）的低利率和债券收益率和不断下降为成长型股票提供了主要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> The value of a stock represents the net present value (NPV) of projected future earnings. The NPV is sensitive to the discount rate applied to those future earnings and the discount rate is determined by interest rates (low interest rates equate to low discount rates and vice versa). The further earnings are expected to occur in the future, the more sensitive a stock’s valuation is to interest rates. In effect, growth stocks have longer duration than value stocks, so growth stocks are more sensitive to interest rates. Higher P/E ratios can be justified when interest rates are low, for the same reasons.</p><p><blockquote>股票的价值代表预计未来收益的净现值（NPV）。净现值对应用于该等未来盈利的贴现率敏感，而贴现率由利率厘定（低利率等同于低贴现率，反之亦然）。预期未来出现的收益越多，股票的估值对利率就越敏感。实际上，成长型股票的久期比价值型股票更长，因此成长型股票对利率更敏感。出于同样的原因，当利率较低时，较高的市盈率是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> The market is currently struggling with expectations on rates and bond yields. The Fed is signaling increasing concern about inflation, which is driving up bond yields. QQQ has been declining, as expected.</p><p><blockquote>市场目前正在努力应对利率和债券收益率的预期。美联储表示对通胀的担忧日益加剧，通胀正在推高债券收益率。正如预期的那样，QQQ一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> I closely monitor the prices of options on indexes in managing my portfolio. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying index (QQQ, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is the market-implied outlook. For those who are unfamiliar with the concept, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.</p><p><blockquote>在管理我的投资组合时，我密切关注指数期权的价格。期权的价格代表市场对标的指数（在本例中为QQQ）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这是市场隐含的前景。对于那些不熟悉这个概念的人，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote></p><p> When I calculated the&nbsp;12-month market-implied outlook in January 2021, the results indicated a bullish view for QQQ. The probabilities of positive returns were consistently higher than for negative returns. In early March 2021, I&nbsp;compared the market-implied outlooks&nbsp;for major equity asset classes, and I got a bullish outlook for QQQ, but I also found that the S&amp;P 500 offered a more favorable risk-return outlook to early 2022 than QQQ.</p><p><blockquote>当我在2021年1月计算12个月市场隐含前景时，结果表明对QQQ持看涨观点。正回报的概率始终高于负回报。2021年3月初，我比较了主要股票资产类别的市场隐含前景，我对QQQ的前景看好，但我也发现标普500对2022年初的风险回报前景比QQQ更有利。</blockquote></p><p> For the YTD, QQQ has a total return of&nbsp;18.46%&nbsp;and SPY has returned&nbsp;19.56%. The market-implied outlooks for developed international stocks (calculated using options on EFA), emerging markets (using options on EEM), and small cap stocks (using options on IWM) were less favorable than those for QQQ and SPY. EFA, EEM, and IWM have YTD total returns of&nbsp;11.5%,-0.65%, and&nbsp;16.24%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>年初至今，QQQ的总回报率为18.46%，SPDR标普500指数ETF的回报率为19.56%。发达国际股票（使用EFA期权计算）、新兴市场（使用EEM期权计算）和小盘股（使用IWM期权计算）的市场隐含前景不如QQQ和SPDR标普500指数ETF。EFA、EEM和IWM年初至今的总回报率分别为11.5%、-0.65%和16.24%。</blockquote></p><p> With the increasing concerns about interest rates, and the QQQ having lost some momentum since reaching its all-time high, I have recalculated the market-implied outlook for QQQ.</p><p><blockquote>随着对利率的担忧日益加剧，以及QQQ自达到历史高点以来失去了一些动力，我重新计算了QQQ的市场隐含前景。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market-Implied Outlook for QQQ</b></p><p><blockquote><b>QQQ的市场隐含前景</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I have analyzed call and put options on QQQ at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022, to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.76 months (from now until that expiration date). I have also analyzed options expiring on March 18, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 5.6 months. I have chosen these two expiration dates to give a view into early 2022 and to get a sense of whether the outlook gets more or less favorable as we move through the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>我分析了QQQ上一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权，所有期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.76个月（从现在到到期日）的市场隐含前景。我还分析了2022年3月18日到期的期权，以生成未来5.6个月的市场隐含前景。我选择这两个到期日是为了展望2022年初，并了解随着我们进入第一季度，前景是更有利还是更不利。</blockquote></p><p> A key metric for the market-implied outlook is to see how closely the theoretical prices of options, as calculated from the market-implied outlook, matches the market prices of those options. The goal in calculating the market-implied outlook is to minimize the differences. For both expiration dates, the average difference between the theoretical and market prices of the options is within 0.2% of the market prices of the options. This is a very good agreement and adds confidence in the market-implied outlook.</p><p><blockquote>市场隐含前景的一个关键指标是查看根据市场隐含前景计算的期权理论价格与这些期权的市场价格的匹配程度。计算市场隐含前景的目标是最小化差异。对于两个到期日，期权的理论价格和市场价格之间的平均差异在期权市场价格的0.2%以内。这是一个非常好的协议，增加了对市场隐含前景的信心。</blockquote></p><p> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is in the form of a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and price return on the horizontal.</p><p><blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示形式是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴上，价格回报在横轴上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7973b66311844822a875f58a6f3230bd\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Market-implied price return probabilities for QQQ for the 3.76-month period from now until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>从即日起至2022年1月21日的3.76个月期间QQQ的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The market-implied outlook from now until January 21, 2022 is consistent with what we expect to see for a stock index. The probability distribution is negatively skewed, meaning that the probability of large negative returns is higher than for large positive returns of the same magnitude. There is an 8.5% chance of having a return of -20% or worse between now and January 21, 2022, as compared to a 1.7% chance of having a return of +20% or greater.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的市场隐含前景与我们对股指的预期一致。概率分布是负偏斜的，这意味着大的负回报的概率高于相同幅度的大的正回报的概率。从现在到2022年1月21日，回报率为-20%或更低的可能性为8.5%，而回报率为+20%或更高的可能性为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> There is a 61.5% probability of having a price return that is greater than zero, however. The peak probability corresponds to a price return of +6.25% over the next 3.76 months. The estimated volatility of QQQ for the 3.76-month period is 13.6%, or 24.3% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>然而，价格回报大于零的概率为61.5%。峰值概率对应于未来3.76个月+6.25%的价格回报。QQQ在3.76个月期间的预计波动率为13.6%，年化波动率为24.3%。</blockquote></p><p> This is a bullish outlook from now until January 21, 2022. With a peak-probability return of +6.25% and volatility (standard deviation of return) of 13.6%, this is a decent risk-return tradeoff.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日，这是一个看涨的前景。峰值概率回报率为+6.25%，波动率（回报标准差）为13.6%，这是一个不错的风险回报权衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/303255af18c88f690ba822dc8b72f81b\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Market-implied price return probabilities for QQQ for the 5.6-month period from now until March 18, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>从即日起至2022年3月18日的5.6个月期间QQQ的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking out to March 18, 2022, calculating the market-implied outlook using options that expire on that date, the view is consistent with the results to January 21, 2022. The distribution is negatively skewed, with annualized volatility of 24.8% (16.9% for the 5.6-month period). The peak probability corresponds to a price return of +8.7%. There is an estimated 60% probability of having a price return that is greater than zero for this period.</p><p><blockquote>展望2022年3月18日，使用该日到期的期权计算市场隐含前景，该观点与截至2022年1月21日的结果一致。分布呈负偏态，年化波动率为24.8%（5.6个月期间为16.9%）。峰值概率对应的价格回报为+8.7%。据估计，在此期间，价格回报大于零的概率为60%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> The market-implied outlook for QQQ to early 2022 offers a favorable risk-return proposition. The maximum-probability price return from now until January 21, 2022 is +6.25%, with annualized volatility of 24.3%. For context, these results may be compared to the equivalent values I calculated for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 (SPY) on September 12th: maximum-probability price return of +5% and annualized volatility of 20%. These values were calculated using options expiring on January 21, 2022. The options prices suggest that QQQ offers a higher projected return at higher risk, as expected. The market-implied outlook for QQQ to March has a maximum probability corresponding to a price return of +8.7%, with 24.8% annualized volatility.</p><p><blockquote>QQQ到2022年初的市场隐含前景提供了有利的风险回报主张。从现在到2022年1月21日的最大概率价格回报为+6.25%，年化波动率为24.3%。作为背景，这些结果可以与我在9月12日为标准普尔500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）计算的等效值进行比较：最大概率价格回报为+5%，年化波动率为20%。这些值是使用2022年1月21日到期的期权计算的。期权价格表明，正如预期的那样，QQQ在较高的风险下提供了较高的预期回报。QQQ至3月份的市场隐含展望最大概率对应价格回报为+8.7%，年化波动率为24.8%。</blockquote></p><p> While the outlook for QQQ derived from options prices is bullish, it is important to remember the difference between a probabilistic outlook (which predicts the probabilities of a wide range of outcomes) and a point outlook (one which predicts a single value). While the market-implied outlook for QQQ is favorable, there is a projected 40% chance of losing money between now and early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>虽然从期权价格得出的QQQ前景是看涨的，但重要的是要记住概率前景（预测各种结果的概率）和点前景（预测单个值）之间的区别。虽然QQQ的市场隐含前景良好，但从现在到2022年初，预计亏损的可能性为40%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457585-qqq-market-implied-outlook-to-early-2022\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457585-qqq-market-implied-outlook-to-early-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150995392","content_text":"Summary\n\nOptions prices can be used to calculate the consensus outlook for QQQ, referred to as the market-implied outlook.\nThe market-implied outlook for QQQ was bullish at the start of 2021, but suggested that SPY offered a superior risk-return tradeoff.\nThe updated market-implied outlook for QQQ into early 2022 is bullish, with moderate volatility.\nThese results suggest the current elevated volatility, largely driven by fear of rising interest rates, is likely to be temporary.\n\nMassimo Giachetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) is in an interesting place. The all-time high close for QQQ was $382.11 on September 7, 2021. At the current price of $360.81, QQQ is 54% above the pre-COVID 2020 high close of $234.64 on February 14, 2020. The trailing total returns for QQQ over longer periods are very high. The 3- and 5-year annualized total returns are 26.76% per year and 26.59% per year, respectively.\nTrailing total returns for QQQ (Source: Morningstar)\nQQQ, a growth-oriented index, has benefitted from several major trends over the past decade. First,growth stocks have absolutely dominated value stocks. Second, technological innovation is changing the world in dramatic ways, making the prospects for many names in the QQQ look like long-term winners. Third,low and falling interest rates and bond yields over the past decade (and longer) have provided a major tailwind for growth stocks.\nThe value of a stock represents the net present value (NPV) of projected future earnings. The NPV is sensitive to the discount rate applied to those future earnings and the discount rate is determined by interest rates (low interest rates equate to low discount rates and vice versa). The further earnings are expected to occur in the future, the more sensitive a stock’s valuation is to interest rates. In effect, growth stocks have longer duration than value stocks, so growth stocks are more sensitive to interest rates. Higher P/E ratios can be justified when interest rates are low, for the same reasons.\nThe market is currently struggling with expectations on rates and bond yields. The Fed is signaling increasing concern about inflation, which is driving up bond yields. QQQ has been declining, as expected.\nI closely monitor the prices of options on indexes in managing my portfolio. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying index (QQQ, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is the market-implied outlook. For those who are unfamiliar with the concept, I have written an overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nWhen I calculated the 12-month market-implied outlook in January 2021, the results indicated a bullish view for QQQ. The probabilities of positive returns were consistently higher than for negative returns. In early March 2021, I compared the market-implied outlooks for major equity asset classes, and I got a bullish outlook for QQQ, but I also found that the S&P 500 offered a more favorable risk-return outlook to early 2022 than QQQ.\nFor the YTD, QQQ has a total return of 18.46% and SPY has returned 19.56%. The market-implied outlooks for developed international stocks (calculated using options on EFA), emerging markets (using options on EEM), and small cap stocks (using options on IWM) were less favorable than those for QQQ and SPY. EFA, EEM, and IWM have YTD total returns of 11.5%,-0.65%, and 16.24%, respectively.\nWith the increasing concerns about interest rates, and the QQQ having lost some momentum since reaching its all-time high, I have recalculated the market-implied outlook for QQQ.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for QQQ\nI have analyzed call and put options on QQQ at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022, to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.76 months (from now until that expiration date). I have also analyzed options expiring on March 18, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 5.6 months. I have chosen these two expiration dates to give a view into early 2022 and to get a sense of whether the outlook gets more or less favorable as we move through the first quarter.\nA key metric for the market-implied outlook is to see how closely the theoretical prices of options, as calculated from the market-implied outlook, matches the market prices of those options. The goal in calculating the market-implied outlook is to minimize the differences. For both expiration dates, the average difference between the theoretical and market prices of the options is within 0.2% of the market prices of the options. This is a very good agreement and adds confidence in the market-implied outlook.\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is in the form of a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and price return on the horizontal.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for QQQ for the 3.76-month period from now until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThe market-implied outlook from now until January 21, 2022 is consistent with what we expect to see for a stock index. The probability distribution is negatively skewed, meaning that the probability of large negative returns is higher than for large positive returns of the same magnitude. There is an 8.5% chance of having a return of -20% or worse between now and January 21, 2022, as compared to a 1.7% chance of having a return of +20% or greater.\nThere is a 61.5% probability of having a price return that is greater than zero, however. The peak probability corresponds to a price return of +6.25% over the next 3.76 months. The estimated volatility of QQQ for the 3.76-month period is 13.6%, or 24.3% annualized.\nThis is a bullish outlook from now until January 21, 2022. With a peak-probability return of +6.25% and volatility (standard deviation of return) of 13.6%, this is a decent risk-return tradeoff.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for QQQ for the 5.6-month period from now until March 18, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nLooking out to March 18, 2022, calculating the market-implied outlook using options that expire on that date, the view is consistent with the results to January 21, 2022. The distribution is negatively skewed, with annualized volatility of 24.8% (16.9% for the 5.6-month period). The peak probability corresponds to a price return of +8.7%. There is an estimated 60% probability of having a price return that is greater than zero for this period.\nSummary\nThe market-implied outlook for QQQ to early 2022 offers a favorable risk-return proposition. The maximum-probability price return from now until January 21, 2022 is +6.25%, with annualized volatility of 24.3%. For context, these results may be compared to the equivalent values I calculated for the S&P 500 (SPY) on September 12th: maximum-probability price return of +5% and annualized volatility of 20%. These values were calculated using options expiring on January 21, 2022. The options prices suggest that QQQ offers a higher projected return at higher risk, as expected. The market-implied outlook for QQQ to March has a maximum probability corresponding to a price return of +8.7%, with 24.8% annualized volatility.\nWhile the outlook for QQQ derived from options prices is bullish, it is important to remember the difference between a probabilistic outlook (which predicts the probabilities of a wide range of outcomes) and a point outlook (one which predicts a single value). While the market-implied outlook for QQQ is favorable, there is a projected 40% chance of losing money between now and early 2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}