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Juvie

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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-26
  can't wait
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,331 评论
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-23
  bullish
  Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection
  Summary Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size.
  Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection
  1,109 评论
  6
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-20
  soon
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  963 评论
  4
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-19
  always a good time
  Is Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?
  Summary Earlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record
  Is Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?
  719 评论
  2
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-18
  $Apple(AAPL)$ bullish
  741 评论
  2
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-14
  good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  764 评论
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-12
  about time
  Chevron Adopts Operational Net Zero ‘Aspiration’ by 2050
  (Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. committed to an “aspiration” of net zero emissions from its operations
  Chevron Adopts Operational Net Zero ‘Aspiration’ by 2050
  786 评论
  2
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-10-02
  nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  656 评论
  4
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-09-12
  fud
  AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment
  AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX. I’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m sk
  AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment
  461 评论
  1
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- JuvieJuvie
  ·2021-09-12
  nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  419 评论
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09:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177255738","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li>\n <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li>\n <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir &amp; US Army Contract</b></p>\n<p>In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth&nbsp;$823 million&nbsp;that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the&nbsp;<i>Capability Drop 2</i>&nbsp;(CD-2) program.</p>\n<p>For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p>\n<p>Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p>\n<p>The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p>\n<p>Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p>\n<p>This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p>\n<p>The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&amp;D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US&nbsp;Space Force.</p>\n<p><b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p>\n<p>Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p>\n<p>Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with&nbsp;analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p>\n<p>One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p>\n<p><b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p>\n<p>Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p>\n<p>Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p><b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The primary goal of the&nbsp;Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio&nbsp;is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-23 09:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.\nPLTR is one of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177255738","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.\nPLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.\nThe company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images News\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.\nPalantir & US Army Contract\nIn early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth $823 million that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the Capability Drop 2 (CD-2) program.\nFor a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst noted that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.\nStill, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.\nThe contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.\nPalantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:\nSource: Palantir\nThis alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:\nSource: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)\nThe National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.\nPalantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US Space Force.\nPLTR Stock Forecast\nPalantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.\nManagement believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?\nData by YCharts\nMajor software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.\nOne can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario thatmightbe on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.\nPLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?\nPalantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.\nPalantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.\nNevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.\nIs This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?\n\nThe primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859695550,"gmtCreate":1634690917573,"gmtModify":1634690920928,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578559022708914","authorIdStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"soon","listText":"soon","text":"soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859695550","repostId":"1112266293","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850573504,"gmtCreate":1634611779656,"gmtModify":1634611784454,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578559022708914","authorIdStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"always a good time&nbsp;","listText":"always a good time&nbsp;","text":"always a good time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850573504","repostId":"1122978319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122978319","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634611485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122978319?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 10:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122978319","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Earlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record for the electric vehicle titan.</li>\n <li>The figures set stage for better-than-expected Q3 earnings results, which is slated for release in a couple of days.</li>\n <li>Investors have responded positively to the news, catapulting the stock past the $800 mark over the past week.</li>\n <li>The stock price will likely remain elevated ahead of Tesla's upcoming release of Q3 financial results. However, the sentiment-driven uptick is expected to dial back towards the high-$700 to $800 level shortly after to reflect Tesla's renewed intrinsic value on improved fundamentals.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ae7d88ff7a98961733633ea30e5503\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1101\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)stockhas been on a steady uptrend since May, gaining almost 50% as rising global electric vehicle (“EV”) demand continues to underpin record-setting sales growth for the automaker. Tesla’s recent release of record-setting deliveries of 241,300 vehicles worldwide for the third quarter has gotten investors eyeing better-than-expected results at the upcoming earnings call. Paired with an overall improvement in market sentiment following&nbsp;recent reports&nbsp;of bottoming initial unemployment benefit claims and slowing producer price increases, which have assuaged fears of inflation eroding economic recovery, the stock has been further catapulted past the $800 mark with strong upward momentum over the past week.</p>\n<p>The stock will likely continue to benefit from an immediate boost considering improved investor sentiment stemming from expectations for upbeat results at the upcoming earnings call. But despite a strong quarter that points to a continued competitive advantage in managing ongoing operational pressures from supply chain constraints and accelerating global EV demand, the stock’s current price levels are already reflective of the company’s projected intrinsic value. While Tesla continues to improve from a fundamental point of view with continued outperforming sales across the board, new material catalysts would be required to sustain further expansion from a valuation standpoint. On this basis, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of Tesla’s upcoming earnings release, with a revised 12-month price target of $806.</p>\n<p><b>Better-Than-Expected Q3 Delivery Volumes and What It Implies</b></p>\n<p>Despite a severely constrained supply of semiconductors and other supply chain chaos like congested ports, Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the third quarter. The quarter marks Tesla’s&nbsp;best one yet, while also surpassing the average consensus estimate and Tesla guide for global deliveries of 223,677 vehicles and 221,952 vehicles, respectively. The results were a testament to Tesla’s exceptional handling of the ongoing chip supply crisis and logistical constraints, which continue to be a major overhang on the automotive sector. Even Volkswagen, one of Tesla’s strongest competitors, has openly complimented on the EV maker’s ability in leveraging proprietary software it had developed to enable compatibility with different suppliers’ chips as an “impressive” mean in navigating swiftly through the crisis.</p>\n<p><b>Improved China Sales</b></p>\n<p>Of the 241,300 vehicles delivered, more than 73,000 vehicles were attributable to local sales in China. Tesla delivered&nbsp;56,006 vehicles&nbsp;produced from its Shanghai manufacturing plant in the month of September alone, with only 3,853 of which were exported to Europe. The results are a turnaround from depressed second quarter and July sales in the largest and fastest-growing EV market in the world, following a slew of negative press ranging from the&nbsp;April protest&nbsp;at the Shanghai Auto Show to the&nbsp;June recall&nbsp;of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China due to a flaw in the vehicles’ active cruise control feature. It is also a sign that Tesla has been and continues to be doing just fine, if not even better, in satisfying robust demand from the Chinese market, despite rising competition from domestic peers like&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO),Li Auto&nbsp;(NASDAQ:LI)&nbsp;and XPeng&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV).</p>\n<p>With China’s new car sales&nbsp;down 17% in September&nbsp;and 13% in the entire third quarter due to a prolonged lack of chips, Tesla’s record-setting deliveries in the region further corroborates its strength in keeping related impacts at bay and under control. Although Elon Musk has continued to blame the “global shortage of chips and ships” as the biggest roadblock to maintaining sales growth of more than 50%, Tesla has fared the best amongst its peers, which will likely continue to reel from supply bottlenecks through to the end of 2022. The China Machinery Industry Federation has recently estimated&nbsp;two million fewer vehicles&nbsp;produced in China this year. The same narrative applies on the global sale, with a recently revised estimate on the quantified impact of ongoing chip supply shortages for the global automotive sector jumping to&nbsp;$210 billion, equivalent to 7.7 million fewer vehicles produced compared to a previous forecast of 3.9 million vehicles.</p>\n<p><b>High-Margin Model 3/Y Sales Leading the Way</b></p>\n<p>As a pioneer and leader of the industry, Tesla remains a closely watched gauge for global EV adoption rates. Model 3 and Model Y sales accounted for more than 96% of third quarter deliveries. As the lower priced, higher-margin models, the Model 3 and Model Y were made to better appeal to mass market demand. The China-made Model Y boasts a competitive price tag of under $53,000, but earns a profit margin of&nbsp;close to 30%&nbsp;for Tesla, while the industry average hovers at only 8% to 10%. And now, with Model 3 and Model Y sales leading the way, not only do Tesla’s fundamentals benefit from better margins, but the trend also underpins rapid global EV adoption and robust demand for new energy vehicles around the world. This further corroborates the promising growth trajectory of Tesla’s core vehicle sales unit from a fundamental standpoint.</p>\n<p><b>Revised Revenue Projections on an Improved Vehicle Sales Outlook</b></p>\n<p>Adjusting our&nbsp;previous forecast&nbsp;for Tesla’s better-than-expected vehicle sales outlook for the rest of the year, considering milder impacts from global supply chain constraints and improved global EV demand, our base case projections estimate total automotive revenues of $44.5 billion by the end of the year. Meanwhile, we have maintained the long-term growth assumption for Tesla’s automotive sales at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 20.1% towards $170.4 billion in revenues by 2030, which is consistent with&nbsp;current market expectations&nbsp;on global EV demand going into the next decade. The growth assumption also takes into consideration Tesla’s expanded production capacity with the new Berlin and Texas manufacturing plants coming online later this year to satisfy the continued surge of demand for EVs. The Berlin plant, in particular, is expected to be gamechanger for the EV maker’s presence in Europe. Tesla’s Shanghai manufacturing facility currently supplies some of the highly demanded Model 3/Y vehicles sold in Europe. But as demand from both the Chinese and European markets continue to surge, the Berlin plant will play a critical role in alleviating any supply bottlenecks and/or logistics challenges pertaining to China exports considering expensive shipping costs and lengthened delivery times from increasingly&nbsp;congested ports. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Berlin is expected to come online as soon as next month, and aims to ramp production capacity up to anywhere between&nbsp;5,000 and 10,000 vehicles per week&nbsp;by the end of next year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eadc84e6814f5684c9241c1cc0cd380d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts</span></p>\n<p>On the other hand, service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, considering they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services. Our base case forecast projects $4.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $15.0 billion by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242db85aead4054611f1bbcbc00d6c04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p>Our previous forecast for energy generation and storage revenues remains unchanged, considering Tesla’s continued strategy in prioritizing vehicle productions over energy generation and storage productions in the event of constrained resources:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Well, by the same token, if we're prioritizing vehicle production, if there's a shortage of cell upward from some reason then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So that it could be something's got to give, basically.”Elon Musk,Q2 Earnings Call\n</blockquote>\n<p>Energy generation and storage revenues are expected to total $3.1 billion by the end of the year, and further advance at a CAGR of 8.9% towards $4.7 billion by 2030. The growth assumption applied reflects continued pent-up demand for the Megapack, which has already sold out until next year, and the Powerwall, which continues to accumulate a backlog of orders.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8bffd547eb5b70da9a3346e474cd264\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p>Lastly, by maintaining the projected cost structure unchanged from our previous coverage, our revised forecast on Tesla’s total earnings come to $4.0 billion by the end of the year, which represents close to a four-fold increase from 2020. The bottom line is expected to further advance towards $15.3 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up across Tesla’s core vehicle sales business, and energy generation and storage systems sales unit.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d5d9e6c27ac07963cba69d733c04ac2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p><i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79112498dff0283b72ce0abbd583e41a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p><b>TSLA Stock Valuation</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e61463f7f99b1028ae14f666a0a40a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p>\n<p>Consistent with recent developments regarding Tesla’s improved fundamentals from softer supply chain impacts and recovering China sales, we have upped our 12-month price target for the stock to $805.20. Considering our price target approximates Tesla’s current share price levels, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of its upcoming earnings release.</p>\n<p>The price target is derived from a discounted cash flow analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the forecasted financial information analyzed in earlier sections. The key valuation assumptions applied in the analysis, which includes the exit multiple and WACC used to discount projected future earnings, remain unchanged from our previous coverage. An exit multiple of 73.2x is applied to reflect Tesla’s continued leadership within the industry, as well as its growth prospects compared to industry peers. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in the valuation analysis, which takes into consideration the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations.</p>\n<p><i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31d7c6ee0f8aa921cdb246f73fd5197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p>\n<p><i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94665f6f0d97a11544d25abc5a893de6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p>\n<p>Despite a big quarter for the EV maker, nothing material has changed from a valuation perspective. Tesla is already one of the largest automakers by market cap, which inches close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the&nbsp;U.S. and Europe combined. Yet, Tesla’s ranking by vehicle sales volume sits at&nbsp;18th&nbsp;place, which indicates that any improvements to its fundamentals from existing operations, ranging from car sales and related add-on services, to energy generation and storage solutions including its Supercharging network, have already been priced into its current valuation. On this basis, new material catalysts would be required to catapult Tesla’s already sky-high valuation to newer heights. And one of these material changing catalysts would likely include the ultimate rollout of level 4 and level 5 full autonomous driving technology and robotaxis, which continues to be delayed and hampered with increasing regulatory scrutiny.</p>\n<p>Musk had originally committed to the commercial deployment of Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2020. Yet, only an advanced “Autopilot” driver-assistance system and a beta version of its “full self-driving” (“FSD”) have been released so far, with the latter being limited to a selective group of users that have metspecific driving behaviour requirements. Meanwhile, others in the race to autonomous mobility, including Alphabet’s Waymo, GM’s Cruise, and Intel’s Mobileye, have already launched, or slated to launch within the next 12 months, pilot programs across the U.S., Europe and Israel. The delays have been further exacerbated by increasing regulatory scrutiny over the safety and effectiveness of Tesla’s self-driving technology. In the latest turn of events regarding the NHTSA’s ongoing probe on whether Tesla’s Autopilot is defective following reports of multiple crashes involving emergency vehicles, the regulatory agency has demanded a&nbsp;legal and technical explanation&nbsp;from the EV maker on how and why an over-the-air update is sufficient to patch the fix as opposed to a recall. The NHTSA currently requires an official recall notice be filed to the agency by automakers looking to patch over-the-air updates as a mean to mitigate software defects that could pose a risk to vehicle safety. Tesla has also been requested by the regulatory body to provide details on its timeline for the commercial roll out of FSD, as well as the list of buyers of the $10,000 add-on service. Considering the series of high profile regulatory scrutiny over Tesla’s full self-driving technology, it remains unclear on how soon the EV maker can achieve its robotaxi aspirations, which makes the extension of even higher valuation prospects a difficult decision to justify at the moment.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s stock price is likely to remain elevated in the immediate term as the company’s earnings release for Q3 draws near. Better-than-expected delivery volumes amidst a dire situation across the broader automotive sector due to overhanging supply chain constraints have boosted investors’ expectations for another round of record-setting earnings from Tesla this quarter. Yet, the sentiment is expected to moderate as soon as the actual financial results are out, driving the stock price back towards the high-$700 to $800 level considering it is already being traded at levels as if strong fundamentals have been priced in. As such, our stance remains neutral on the stock ahead of its upcoming release of third quarter results.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-19 10:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460453-tesla-stock-buy-sell-upcoming-earnings><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nEarlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record for the electric vehicle titan.\nThe figures set stage for better-than-expected Q3 earnings results,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460453-tesla-stock-buy-sell-upcoming-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460453-tesla-stock-buy-sell-upcoming-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122978319","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record for the electric vehicle titan.\nThe figures set stage for better-than-expected Q3 earnings results, which is slated for release in a couple of days.\nInvestors have responded positively to the news, catapulting the stock past the $800 mark over the past week.\nThe stock price will likely remain elevated ahead of Tesla's upcoming release of Q3 financial results. However, the sentiment-driven uptick is expected to dial back towards the high-$700 to $800 level shortly after to reflect Tesla's renewed intrinsic value on improved fundamentals.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nTesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)stockhas been on a steady uptrend since May, gaining almost 50% as rising global electric vehicle (“EV”) demand continues to underpin record-setting sales growth for the automaker. Tesla’s recent release of record-setting deliveries of 241,300 vehicles worldwide for the third quarter has gotten investors eyeing better-than-expected results at the upcoming earnings call. Paired with an overall improvement in market sentiment following recent reports of bottoming initial unemployment benefit claims and slowing producer price increases, which have assuaged fears of inflation eroding economic recovery, the stock has been further catapulted past the $800 mark with strong upward momentum over the past week.\nThe stock will likely continue to benefit from an immediate boost considering improved investor sentiment stemming from expectations for upbeat results at the upcoming earnings call. But despite a strong quarter that points to a continued competitive advantage in managing ongoing operational pressures from supply chain constraints and accelerating global EV demand, the stock’s current price levels are already reflective of the company’s projected intrinsic value. While Tesla continues to improve from a fundamental point of view with continued outperforming sales across the board, new material catalysts would be required to sustain further expansion from a valuation standpoint. On this basis, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of Tesla’s upcoming earnings release, with a revised 12-month price target of $806.\nBetter-Than-Expected Q3 Delivery Volumes and What It Implies\nDespite a severely constrained supply of semiconductors and other supply chain chaos like congested ports, Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the third quarter. The quarter marks Tesla’s best one yet, while also surpassing the average consensus estimate and Tesla guide for global deliveries of 223,677 vehicles and 221,952 vehicles, respectively. The results were a testament to Tesla’s exceptional handling of the ongoing chip supply crisis and logistical constraints, which continue to be a major overhang on the automotive sector. Even Volkswagen, one of Tesla’s strongest competitors, has openly complimented on the EV maker’s ability in leveraging proprietary software it had developed to enable compatibility with different suppliers’ chips as an “impressive” mean in navigating swiftly through the crisis.\nImproved China Sales\nOf the 241,300 vehicles delivered, more than 73,000 vehicles were attributable to local sales in China. Tesla delivered 56,006 vehicles produced from its Shanghai manufacturing plant in the month of September alone, with only 3,853 of which were exported to Europe. The results are a turnaround from depressed second quarter and July sales in the largest and fastest-growing EV market in the world, following a slew of negative press ranging from the April protest at the Shanghai Auto Show to the June recall of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China due to a flaw in the vehicles’ active cruise control feature. It is also a sign that Tesla has been and continues to be doing just fine, if not even better, in satisfying robust demand from the Chinese market, despite rising competition from domestic peers like NIO (NYSE:NIO),Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV).\nWith China’s new car sales down 17% in September and 13% in the entire third quarter due to a prolonged lack of chips, Tesla’s record-setting deliveries in the region further corroborates its strength in keeping related impacts at bay and under control. Although Elon Musk has continued to blame the “global shortage of chips and ships” as the biggest roadblock to maintaining sales growth of more than 50%, Tesla has fared the best amongst its peers, which will likely continue to reel from supply bottlenecks through to the end of 2022. The China Machinery Industry Federation has recently estimated two million fewer vehicles produced in China this year. The same narrative applies on the global sale, with a recently revised estimate on the quantified impact of ongoing chip supply shortages for the global automotive sector jumping to $210 billion, equivalent to 7.7 million fewer vehicles produced compared to a previous forecast of 3.9 million vehicles.\nHigh-Margin Model 3/Y Sales Leading the Way\nAs a pioneer and leader of the industry, Tesla remains a closely watched gauge for global EV adoption rates. Model 3 and Model Y sales accounted for more than 96% of third quarter deliveries. As the lower priced, higher-margin models, the Model 3 and Model Y were made to better appeal to mass market demand. The China-made Model Y boasts a competitive price tag of under $53,000, but earns a profit margin of close to 30% for Tesla, while the industry average hovers at only 8% to 10%. And now, with Model 3 and Model Y sales leading the way, not only do Tesla’s fundamentals benefit from better margins, but the trend also underpins rapid global EV adoption and robust demand for new energy vehicles around the world. This further corroborates the promising growth trajectory of Tesla’s core vehicle sales unit from a fundamental standpoint.\nRevised Revenue Projections on an Improved Vehicle Sales Outlook\nAdjusting our previous forecast for Tesla’s better-than-expected vehicle sales outlook for the rest of the year, considering milder impacts from global supply chain constraints and improved global EV demand, our base case projections estimate total automotive revenues of $44.5 billion by the end of the year. Meanwhile, we have maintained the long-term growth assumption for Tesla’s automotive sales at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 20.1% towards $170.4 billion in revenues by 2030, which is consistent with current market expectations on global EV demand going into the next decade. The growth assumption also takes into consideration Tesla’s expanded production capacity with the new Berlin and Texas manufacturing plants coming online later this year to satisfy the continued surge of demand for EVs. The Berlin plant, in particular, is expected to be gamechanger for the EV maker’s presence in Europe. Tesla’s Shanghai manufacturing facility currently supplies some of the highly demanded Model 3/Y vehicles sold in Europe. But as demand from both the Chinese and European markets continue to surge, the Berlin plant will play a critical role in alleviating any supply bottlenecks and/or logistics challenges pertaining to China exports considering expensive shipping costs and lengthened delivery times from increasingly congested ports. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Berlin is expected to come online as soon as next month, and aims to ramp production capacity up to anywhere between 5,000 and 10,000 vehicles per week by the end of next year.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts\nOn the other hand, service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, considering they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services. Our base case forecast projects $4.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $15.0 billion by the end of the decade.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nOur previous forecast for energy generation and storage revenues remains unchanged, considering Tesla’s continued strategy in prioritizing vehicle productions over energy generation and storage productions in the event of constrained resources:\n\n “Well, by the same token, if we're prioritizing vehicle production, if there's a shortage of cell upward from some reason then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So that it could be something's got to give, basically.”Elon Musk,Q2 Earnings Call\n\nEnergy generation and storage revenues are expected to total $3.1 billion by the end of the year, and further advance at a CAGR of 8.9% towards $4.7 billion by 2030. The growth assumption applied reflects continued pent-up demand for the Megapack, which has already sold out until next year, and the Powerwall, which continues to accumulate a backlog of orders.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nLastly, by maintaining the projected cost structure unchanged from our previous coverage, our revised forecast on Tesla’s total earnings come to $4.0 billion by the end of the year, which represents close to a four-fold increase from 2020. The bottom line is expected to further advance towards $15.3 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up across Tesla’s core vehicle sales business, and energy generation and storage systems sales unit.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nTSLA Stock Valuation\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConsistent with recent developments regarding Tesla’s improved fundamentals from softer supply chain impacts and recovering China sales, we have upped our 12-month price target for the stock to $805.20. Considering our price target approximates Tesla’s current share price levels, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of its upcoming earnings release.\nThe price target is derived from a discounted cash flow analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the forecasted financial information analyzed in earlier sections. The key valuation assumptions applied in the analysis, which includes the exit multiple and WACC used to discount projected future earnings, remain unchanged from our previous coverage. An exit multiple of 73.2x is applied to reflect Tesla’s continued leadership within the industry, as well as its growth prospects compared to industry peers. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in the valuation analysis, which takes into consideration the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nDespite a big quarter for the EV maker, nothing material has changed from a valuation perspective. Tesla is already one of the largest automakers by market cap, which inches close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined. Yet, Tesla’s ranking by vehicle sales volume sits at 18th place, which indicates that any improvements to its fundamentals from existing operations, ranging from car sales and related add-on services, to energy generation and storage solutions including its Supercharging network, have already been priced into its current valuation. On this basis, new material catalysts would be required to catapult Tesla’s already sky-high valuation to newer heights. And one of these material changing catalysts would likely include the ultimate rollout of level 4 and level 5 full autonomous driving technology and robotaxis, which continues to be delayed and hampered with increasing regulatory scrutiny.\nMusk had originally committed to the commercial deployment of Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2020. Yet, only an advanced “Autopilot” driver-assistance system and a beta version of its “full self-driving” (“FSD”) have been released so far, with the latter being limited to a selective group of users that have metspecific driving behaviour requirements. Meanwhile, others in the race to autonomous mobility, including Alphabet’s Waymo, GM’s Cruise, and Intel’s Mobileye, have already launched, or slated to launch within the next 12 months, pilot programs across the U.S., Europe and Israel. The delays have been further exacerbated by increasing regulatory scrutiny over the safety and effectiveness of Tesla’s self-driving technology. In the latest turn of events regarding the NHTSA’s ongoing probe on whether Tesla’s Autopilot is defective following reports of multiple crashes involving emergency vehicles, the regulatory agency has demanded a legal and technical explanation from the EV maker on how and why an over-the-air update is sufficient to patch the fix as opposed to a recall. The NHTSA currently requires an official recall notice be filed to the agency by automakers looking to patch over-the-air updates as a mean to mitigate software defects that could pose a risk to vehicle safety. Tesla has also been requested by the regulatory body to provide details on its timeline for the commercial roll out of FSD, as well as the list of buyers of the $10,000 add-on service. Considering the series of high profile regulatory scrutiny over Tesla’s full self-driving technology, it remains unclear on how soon the EV maker can achieve its robotaxi aspirations, which makes the extension of even higher valuation prospects a difficult decision to justify at the moment.\nConclusion\nTesla’s stock price is likely to remain elevated in the immediate term as the company’s earnings release for Q3 draws near. Better-than-expected delivery volumes amidst a dire situation across the broader automotive sector due to overhanging supply chain constraints have boosted investors’ expectations for another round of record-setting earnings from Tesla this quarter. Yet, the sentiment is expected to moderate as soon as the actual financial results are out, driving the stock price back towards the high-$700 to $800 level considering it is already being traded at levels as if strong fundamentals have been priced in. As such, our stance remains neutral on the stock ahead of its upcoming release of third quarter results.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850816422,"gmtCreate":1634570417989,"gmtModify":1634570421270,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578559022708914","authorIdStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> bullish","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> bullish","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ bullish","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd5bcbd230f4e4f410ba23875f8f0a6","width":"1125","height":"3314"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850816422","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822511588,"gmtCreate":1634141251292,"gmtModify":1634141252127,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578559022708914","authorIdStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822511588","repostId":"2175516391","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826146321,"gmtCreate":1633999446729,"gmtModify":1633999447513,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578559022708914","authorIdStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"about time","listText":"about time","text":"about time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826146321","repostId":"1198890424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198890424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633996308,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198890424?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 07:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chevron Adopts Operational Net Zero ‘Aspiration’ by 2050","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198890424","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. committed to an “aspiration” of net zero emissions from its operations ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. committed to an “aspiration” of net zero emissions from its operations by 2050 as the company responds to rising investor and societal pressure to play a bigger role in a transition to a low-carbon future.</p>\n<p>Chevron also set a target of reducing carbon intensity by 5% from 2016 levels by 2028 for the full lifecycle of its products, the San Ramon, California-based company said Monday in a report. The target includes Scope 3 emissions, or those of its customers, which make up the majority of fossil fuel pollution.</p>\n<p>While the pledge falls short of those made by European peers such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, it’s the first time Chevron has outlined a multi-decade strategic commitment to reduce emissions. U.S. majors have been more reticent in adopting bold, long-term targets due to uncertainty over how to actually achieve them, an unwillingness to make large moves outside their core competency areas, and a desire to produce more oil and gas.</p>\n<p>“In transition, companies that are delivering any unit of energy in at a more efficient carbon intensity are beneficial to our overall progress,” Bruce Niemeyer, Chevron’s vice president for sustainability and strategy, said in an interview. “That’s the most important thing.”</p>\n<p>Whether or not it’s enough to appease shareholders remains to be seen. In May investors defied Chevron’s board and voted to reduce Scope 3 emissions on an absolute basis, not just intensity, which is a measure tied to the amount of energy produced.</p>\n<p>Follow This, the Dutch campaigner that filed the investor proposal, said Chevron’s new goal is “disappointing tokenism.” Rather than a 5% reduction in Scope 3 intensity, absolute emissions need to come down by 40% by 2030 to have any chance of achieving the 2016 Paris Agreement, the group said in a statement.</p>\n<p>Niemeyer said today’s climate report “reflects a lot of investor feedback.”</p>\n<p>Chevron isn’t the first U.S. oil company to adopt looser language around the definition “net zero” than when the term was first introduced a few years ago. ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Corp. have also set 2050 net zero as an ambition or an aspiration rather than a hard target.</p>\n<p>But semantics aside, even those oil companies with seemingly stringent targets are light on detail with how to eliminate carbon emissions from their fossil fuels, especially in the outer decades of their plans. Exxon Mobil Corp. executives expressed skepticism over net zero targets earlier this year in a meeting with Citigroup Inc. banker Stephen Trauber because they had no concrete plans of how get there.</p>\n<p>“I assured them most companies today who have committed to net zero don’t have a plan on how to get there, but they’re working to get there,” Trauber said last month.</p>\n<p>Exxon is routinely evaluating its climate pledges “to reflect the changing landscape,” it said in a statement at the time. The company was forced to replace three of its directors earlier this year after an activist campaign that claimed the oil giant was ill-equipped for the energy transition.</p>\n<p>Chevron’s announcement is “positive,” but “these are small steps when what investors asked for is a giant leap,” said Andrew Logan of Ceres, a nonprofit coalition of companies and investors who manage more than $47 trillion.</p>\n<p>“What investors called for in casting their support for a shareholder proposal on Scope 3 targets this spring was a bold move to address product risk, one that was commensurate with the scale and scope of the climate challenge,” Logan said.</p>\n<p>Chevron Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth last month emphasized what he sees as the importance of having an credible carbon strategy that balances the world’s need for reliable energy with the lowering of emissions. The current global shortage of natural gas, along with the run-up in oil and coal prices over the past few weeks, emphasizes how the world is still highly dependent upon fossil fuels.</p>\n<p>The energy crunch in Asia and Europe show that “we must be very thoughtful in how we go about the transition,” Chevron’s Niemeyer said. “Prematurely cutting of one form of energy before the transition is really effected can be really problematic for us as a society.”</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chevron Adopts Operational Net Zero ‘Aspiration’ by 2050</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChevron Adopts Operational Net Zero ‘Aspiration’ by 2050\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-12 07:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-targets-net-zero-emissions-105738194.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. committed to an “aspiration” of net zero emissions from its operations by 2050 as the company responds to rising investor and societal pressure to play a bigger role in a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-targets-net-zero-emissions-105738194.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CVX":"雪佛龙"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-targets-net-zero-emissions-105738194.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198890424","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. committed to an “aspiration” of net zero emissions from its operations by 2050 as the company responds to rising investor and societal pressure to play a bigger role in a transition to a low-carbon future.\nChevron also set a target of reducing carbon intensity by 5% from 2016 levels by 2028 for the full lifecycle of its products, the San Ramon, California-based company said Monday in a report. The target includes Scope 3 emissions, or those of its customers, which make up the majority of fossil fuel pollution.\nWhile the pledge falls short of those made by European peers such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc, it’s the first time Chevron has outlined a multi-decade strategic commitment to reduce emissions. U.S. majors have been more reticent in adopting bold, long-term targets due to uncertainty over how to actually achieve them, an unwillingness to make large moves outside their core competency areas, and a desire to produce more oil and gas.\n“In transition, companies that are delivering any unit of energy in at a more efficient carbon intensity are beneficial to our overall progress,” Bruce Niemeyer, Chevron’s vice president for sustainability and strategy, said in an interview. “That’s the most important thing.”\nWhether or not it’s enough to appease shareholders remains to be seen. In May investors defied Chevron’s board and voted to reduce Scope 3 emissions on an absolute basis, not just intensity, which is a measure tied to the amount of energy produced.\nFollow This, the Dutch campaigner that filed the investor proposal, said Chevron’s new goal is “disappointing tokenism.” Rather than a 5% reduction in Scope 3 intensity, absolute emissions need to come down by 40% by 2030 to have any chance of achieving the 2016 Paris Agreement, the group said in a statement.\nNiemeyer said today’s climate report “reflects a lot of investor feedback.”\nChevron isn’t the first U.S. oil company to adopt looser language around the definition “net zero” than when the term was first introduced a few years ago. ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Corp. have also set 2050 net zero as an ambition or an aspiration rather than a hard target.\nBut semantics aside, even those oil companies with seemingly stringent targets are light on detail with how to eliminate carbon emissions from their fossil fuels, especially in the outer decades of their plans. Exxon Mobil Corp. executives expressed skepticism over net zero targets earlier this year in a meeting with Citigroup Inc. banker Stephen Trauber because they had no concrete plans of how get there.\n“I assured them most companies today who have committed to net zero don’t have a plan on how to get there, but they’re working to get there,” Trauber said last month.\nExxon is routinely evaluating its climate pledges “to reflect the changing landscape,” it said in a statement at the time. The company was forced to replace three of its directors earlier this year after an activist campaign that claimed the oil giant was ill-equipped for the energy transition.\nChevron’s announcement is “positive,” but “these are small steps when what investors asked for is a giant leap,” said Andrew Logan of Ceres, a nonprofit coalition of companies and investors who manage more than $47 trillion.\n“What investors called for in casting their support for a shareholder proposal on Scope 3 targets this spring was a bold move to address product risk, one that was commensurate with the scale and scope of the climate challenge,” Logan said.\nChevron Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth last month emphasized what he sees as the importance of having an credible carbon strategy that balances the world’s need for reliable energy with the lowering of emissions. The current global shortage of natural gas, along with the run-up in oil and coal prices over the past few weeks, emphasizes how the world is still highly dependent upon fossil fuels.\nThe energy crunch in Asia and Europe show that “we must be very thoughtful in how we go about the transition,” Chevron’s Niemeyer said. “Prematurely cutting of one form of energy before the transition is really effected can be really problematic for us as a society.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864727692,"gmtCreate":1633151916750,"gmtModify":1633151919882,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578559022708914","authorIdStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864727692","repostId":"2172396138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881427156,"gmtCreate":1631381688775,"gmtModify":1631891041681,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578559022708914","authorIdStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fud","listText":"fud","text":"fud","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881427156","repostId":"1105230157","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105230157","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631284349,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105230157?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105230157","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.\n\nI’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m sk","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>I’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m skepticalof investing in the movie theater business. But even if you assume movie theaters are a sound long-term investment,<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:<b><u>AMC</u></b>) stock isn’t the best stock to buy.</p>\n<p>If you want to gamble on meme stocks, AMC stock will certainly be a fun time. The AMC “ape army” is large, very funny and extremely active on social media.</p>\n<p>But if you want to make a smart, long-term investment in a movie theater recovery,<b>IMAX</b>(NYSE:<b><u>IMAX</u></b>) is your best bet.</p>\n<p><b>Movie Theater Numbers</b></p>\n<p>It doesn’t take much time to make the case that the movie theater business is a bad investment. Forget the pandemic. U.S. total domestic box office sales in 2019 were $11.32 billion. In 2016, total U.S. domestic box office sales were$11.37 billion.&nbsp;From 2016 through 2019, AMC averaged an annual net loss of $103.6 million.</p>\n<p>Movie theaters will not be disappearing. Going to the movies is a fun experience from time to time. The problem is that people have increasingly impressive HD smart TVs at home. There are more streaming platforms releasing original content than ever before.</p>\n<p>AMC stock bulls believe in a comeback of movie theaters. I’m certain movie theaters have and will continue to rebound from pandemic-level numbers. The million-dollar question is will they continue to grow over time? What they ever make it back to 2016 levels?</p>\n<p>Sure, people will continue to go out to the movies. People who went to see four movie theater movies per month may see two or three per month by 2023 or 2024.&nbsp; I’m not predicting an end to the movie theater industry. But a 25% to 50% drop in revenue is a major problem for AMC stock investors.</p>\n<p><b>IMAX Over AMC Stock</b></p>\n<p>Let’s assume for a minute that you ignore<b>Netflix</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NFLX</u></b>),<b>Disney</b>(NYSE:<b><u>DIS</u></b>) and all the other streaming services. Let’s assume you want to bet on movie theaters. To me, that’s akin to ignoring Netflix in 2016 and betting on Blockbuster Video. But let’s assume that you believe the future of the entertainment industry is movie theaters.</p>\n<p>Macquarie Research analystChad Beynonrecently released a note that included a deep dive into the entire movie theater industry.</p>\n<p>In the note, Beynon downgraded AMC stock and had some harsh words about its valuation. He pointed out that AMC shares are up more than 500% in the past 12 months, while the movie theater group as a whole is up just 11%.</p>\n<p>Beynon also said AMC will not be free cash flow positive until 2023.</p>\n<p>“Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn; normalized maintenance capex is ~$140m, and annual interest is ~$420m,” Beynon says.</p>\n<p>Macquarie has an “underperform” rating and $6 price target for AMC stock.</p>\n<p>Instead, Baynon named IMAX as his top movie theater stock pick. IMAX is growing, it has a much healthier balance sheet than AMC and it is a much better value. In the past seven years, IMAX has grown its total number of screens from 863 to 1,654, Beynon said.</p>\n<p>“Additionally, we believe the company’s leading margins and well-capitalized balance sheet support our positive view,” he says.</p>\n<p>Macquarie has an “outperform” rating and $26 price target for IMAX stock.</p>\n<p><b>Don’t Pair Trade</b></p>\n<p>AMC stock apes won’t care about anything Macquarie has to say. They certainly don’t care what I haveto say. They like the stock.</p>\n<p>But for people that want to make sound long-term investments, AMC stock is not the way to play a movie theater recovery. AMC stock trades at 28.2x sales. IMAX trades at 5.2x sales. AMC stock has $3.7 billion in net debt. IMAX has $11.8 million in net debt.</p>\n<p>In 2019, AMC generated a net loss of $149 million. IMAX generated a net profit of $46.8 million.</p>\n<p>To be clear, I wouldn’t and haven’t invested in either of these stocks. I believe movie theater ticket sales were likely insecular declineeven before the pandemic. But IMAX is clearly more appealing as a movie theater rebound investment in virtually every way compared to AMC stock.</p>\n<p>Before I wrap up, I want to add one warning. Normally, I’d recommend a pair trade in which investors go long IMAX stock and short AMC stock. In this case, I would never short AMC stock under any circumstances. AMC stock price disconnected from reality a long time ago. It is now the ultimate cult stock.</p>\n<p>AMC stock trading at a $24.5 billion market cap is just as insane as it trading at a $245 billion market cap. Once a stock is disconnected from fundamentals, it can go anywhere in the near term. Do not short AMC stock unless you are prepared to endure very heavy losses.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-10 22:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/09/amc-stock-isnt-the-best-movie-theater-recovery-investment/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.\n\nI’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m skepticalof investing in the movie theater business. But even if you assume movie theaters are a sound...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/amc-stock-isnt-the-best-movie-theater-recovery-investment/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/amc-stock-isnt-the-best-movie-theater-recovery-investment/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105230157","content_text":"AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.\n\nI’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m skepticalof investing in the movie theater business. But even if you assume movie theaters are a sound long-term investment,AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) stock isn’t the best stock to buy.\nIf you want to gamble on meme stocks, AMC stock will certainly be a fun time. The AMC “ape army” is large, very funny and extremely active on social media.\nBut if you want to make a smart, long-term investment in a movie theater recovery,IMAX(NYSE:IMAX) is your best bet.\nMovie Theater Numbers\nIt doesn’t take much time to make the case that the movie theater business is a bad investment. Forget the pandemic. U.S. total domestic box office sales in 2019 were $11.32 billion. In 2016, total U.S. domestic box office sales were$11.37 billion. From 2016 through 2019, AMC averaged an annual net loss of $103.6 million.\nMovie theaters will not be disappearing. Going to the movies is a fun experience from time to time. The problem is that people have increasingly impressive HD smart TVs at home. There are more streaming platforms releasing original content than ever before.\nAMC stock bulls believe in a comeback of movie theaters. I’m certain movie theaters have and will continue to rebound from pandemic-level numbers. The million-dollar question is will they continue to grow over time? What they ever make it back to 2016 levels?\nSure, people will continue to go out to the movies. People who went to see four movie theater movies per month may see two or three per month by 2023 or 2024.  I’m not predicting an end to the movie theater industry. But a 25% to 50% drop in revenue is a major problem for AMC stock investors.\nIMAX Over AMC Stock\nLet’s assume for a minute that you ignoreNetflix(NASDAQ:NFLX),Disney(NYSE:DIS) and all the other streaming services. Let’s assume you want to bet on movie theaters. To me, that’s akin to ignoring Netflix in 2016 and betting on Blockbuster Video. But let’s assume that you believe the future of the entertainment industry is movie theaters.\nMacquarie Research analystChad Beynonrecently released a note that included a deep dive into the entire movie theater industry.\nIn the note, Beynon downgraded AMC stock and had some harsh words about its valuation. He pointed out that AMC shares are up more than 500% in the past 12 months, while the movie theater group as a whole is up just 11%.\nBeynon also said AMC will not be free cash flow positive until 2023.\n“Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn; normalized maintenance capex is ~$140m, and annual interest is ~$420m,” Beynon says.\nMacquarie has an “underperform” rating and $6 price target for AMC stock.\nInstead, Baynon named IMAX as his top movie theater stock pick. IMAX is growing, it has a much healthier balance sheet than AMC and it is a much better value. In the past seven years, IMAX has grown its total number of screens from 863 to 1,654, Beynon said.\n“Additionally, we believe the company’s leading margins and well-capitalized balance sheet support our positive view,” he says.\nMacquarie has an “outperform” rating and $26 price target for IMAX stock.\nDon’t Pair Trade\nAMC stock apes won’t care about anything Macquarie has to say. They certainly don’t care what I haveto say. They like the stock.\nBut for people that want to make sound long-term investments, AMC stock is not the way to play a movie theater recovery. AMC stock trades at 28.2x sales. IMAX trades at 5.2x sales. AMC stock has $3.7 billion in net debt. IMAX has $11.8 million in net debt.\nIn 2019, AMC generated a net loss of $149 million. IMAX generated a net profit of $46.8 million.\nTo be clear, I wouldn’t and haven’t invested in either of these stocks. I believe movie theater ticket sales were likely insecular declineeven before the pandemic. But IMAX is clearly more appealing as a movie theater rebound investment in virtually every way compared to AMC stock.\nBefore I wrap up, I want to add one warning. Normally, I’d recommend a pair trade in which investors go long IMAX stock and short AMC stock. In this case, I would never short AMC stock under any circumstances. AMC stock price disconnected from reality a long time ago. It is now the ultimate cult stock.\nAMC stock trading at a $24.5 billion market cap is just as insane as it trading at a $245 billion market cap. Once a stock is disconnected from fundamentals, it can go anywhere in the near term. Do not short AMC stock unless you are prepared to endure very heavy losses.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881424784,"gmtCreate":1631381635448,"gmtModify":1631891041695,"author":{"id":"3578559022708914","authorId":"3578559022708914","name":"Juvie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9174cf1baa02042e82114235e72d7246","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578559022708914","authorIdStr":"3578559022708914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881424784","repostId":"2166375610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}