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Strider88
Strider88
·
2021-09-11
What a dumb article
AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment
AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX. I’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m sk
AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment
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Strider88
Strider88
·
2021-06-18
Funny how you guys keep posting the same shiz this week
AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators
Summary I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC. For investors, the gravitational pul
AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators
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Strider88
Strider88
·
2021-03-18
Agreed
7 Reasons to Avoid the Reddit Stocks Like the Plague
GameStop, AMC, Sundial, and many more Reddit stocks are bad news for investors.No matter how long yo
7 Reasons to Avoid the Reddit Stocks Like the Plague
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Strider88
Strider88
·
2021-03-18
Nice
2 Tech Stocks That Could Make You Rich
These tech companies are disrupting the status quo -- that could mean big gains for investors. As t
2 Tech Stocks That Could Make You Rich
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a dumb article","listText":"What a dumb article","text":"What a dumb article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881327742","repostId":"1105230157","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105230157","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631284349,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105230157?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105230157","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.\n\nI’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m sk","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>I’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m skepticalof investing in the movie theater business. But even if you assume movie theaters are a sound long-term investment,<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:<b><u>AMC</u></b>) stock isn’t the best stock to buy.</p>\n<p>If you want to gamble on meme stocks, AMC stock will certainly be a fun time. The AMC “ape army” is large, very funny and extremely active on social media.</p>\n<p>But if you want to make a smart, long-term investment in a movie theater recovery,<b>IMAX</b>(NYSE:<b><u>IMAX</u></b>) is your best bet.</p>\n<p><b>Movie Theater Numbers</b></p>\n<p>It doesn’t take much time to make the case that the movie theater business is a bad investment. Forget the pandemic. U.S. total domestic box office sales in 2019 were $11.32 billion. In 2016, total U.S. domestic box office sales were$11.37 billion. From 2016 through 2019, AMC averaged an annual net loss of $103.6 million.</p>\n<p>Movie theaters will not be disappearing. Going to the movies is a fun experience from time to time. The problem is that people have increasingly impressive HD smart TVs at home. There are more streaming platforms releasing original content than ever before.</p>\n<p>AMC stock bulls believe in a comeback of movie theaters. I’m certain movie theaters have and will continue to rebound from pandemic-level numbers. The million-dollar question is will they continue to grow over time? What they ever make it back to 2016 levels?</p>\n<p>Sure, people will continue to go out to the movies. People who went to see four movie theater movies per month may see two or three per month by 2023 or 2024. I’m not predicting an end to the movie theater industry. But a 25% to 50% drop in revenue is a major problem for AMC stock investors.</p>\n<p><b>IMAX Over AMC Stock</b></p>\n<p>Let’s assume for a minute that you ignore<b>Netflix</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NFLX</u></b>),<b>Disney</b>(NYSE:<b><u>DIS</u></b>) and all the other streaming services. Let’s assume you want to bet on movie theaters. To me, that’s akin to ignoring Netflix in 2016 and betting on Blockbuster Video. But let’s assume that you believe the future of the entertainment industry is movie theaters.</p>\n<p>Macquarie Research analystChad Beynonrecently released a note that included a deep dive into the entire movie theater industry.</p>\n<p>In the note, Beynon downgraded AMC stock and had some harsh words about its valuation. He pointed out that AMC shares are up more than 500% in the past 12 months, while the movie theater group as a whole is up just 11%.</p>\n<p>Beynon also said AMC will not be free cash flow positive until 2023.</p>\n<p>“Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn; normalized maintenance capex is ~$140m, and annual interest is ~$420m,” Beynon says.</p>\n<p>Macquarie has an “underperform” rating and $6 price target for AMC stock.</p>\n<p>Instead, Baynon named IMAX as his top movie theater stock pick. IMAX is growing, it has a much healthier balance sheet than AMC and it is a much better value. In the past seven years, IMAX has grown its total number of screens from 863 to 1,654, Beynon said.</p>\n<p>“Additionally, we believe the company’s leading margins and well-capitalized balance sheet support our positive view,” he says.</p>\n<p>Macquarie has an “outperform” rating and $26 price target for IMAX stock.</p>\n<p><b>Don’t Pair Trade</b></p>\n<p>AMC stock apes won’t care about anything Macquarie has to say. They certainly don’t care what I haveto say. They like the stock.</p>\n<p>But for people that want to make sound long-term investments, AMC stock is not the way to play a movie theater recovery. AMC stock trades at 28.2x sales. IMAX trades at 5.2x sales. AMC stock has $3.7 billion in net debt. IMAX has $11.8 million in net debt.</p>\n<p>In 2019, AMC generated a net loss of $149 million. IMAX generated a net profit of $46.8 million.</p>\n<p>To be clear, I wouldn’t and haven’t invested in either of these stocks. I believe movie theater ticket sales were likely insecular declineeven before the pandemic. But IMAX is clearly more appealing as a movie theater rebound investment in virtually every way compared to AMC stock.</p>\n<p>Before I wrap up, I want to add one warning. Normally, I’d recommend a pair trade in which investors go long IMAX stock and short AMC stock. In this case, I would never short AMC stock under any circumstances. AMC stock price disconnected from reality a long time ago. It is now the ultimate cult stock.</p>\n<p>AMC stock trading at a $24.5 billion market cap is just as insane as it trading at a $245 billion market cap. Once a stock is disconnected from fundamentals, it can go anywhere in the near term. Do not short AMC stock unless you are prepared to endure very heavy losses.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-10 22:32 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/09/amc-stock-isnt-the-best-movie-theater-recovery-investment/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.\n\nI’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m skepticalof investing in the movie theater business. But even if you assume movie theaters are a sound...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/amc-stock-isnt-the-best-movie-theater-recovery-investment/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/amc-stock-isnt-the-best-movie-theater-recovery-investment/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105230157","content_text":"AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.\n\nI’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m skepticalof investing in the movie theater business. But even if you assume movie theaters are a sound long-term investment,AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) stock isn’t the best stock to buy.\nIf you want to gamble on meme stocks, AMC stock will certainly be a fun time. The AMC “ape army” is large, very funny and extremely active on social media.\nBut if you want to make a smart, long-term investment in a movie theater recovery,IMAX(NYSE:IMAX) is your best bet.\nMovie Theater Numbers\nIt doesn’t take much time to make the case that the movie theater business is a bad investment. Forget the pandemic. U.S. total domestic box office sales in 2019 were $11.32 billion. In 2016, total U.S. domestic box office sales were$11.37 billion. From 2016 through 2019, AMC averaged an annual net loss of $103.6 million.\nMovie theaters will not be disappearing. Going to the movies is a fun experience from time to time. The problem is that people have increasingly impressive HD smart TVs at home. There are more streaming platforms releasing original content than ever before.\nAMC stock bulls believe in a comeback of movie theaters. I’m certain movie theaters have and will continue to rebound from pandemic-level numbers. The million-dollar question is will they continue to grow over time? What they ever make it back to 2016 levels?\nSure, people will continue to go out to the movies. People who went to see four movie theater movies per month may see two or three per month by 2023 or 2024. I’m not predicting an end to the movie theater industry. But a 25% to 50% drop in revenue is a major problem for AMC stock investors.\nIMAX Over AMC Stock\nLet’s assume for a minute that you ignoreNetflix(NASDAQ:NFLX),Disney(NYSE:DIS) and all the other streaming services. Let’s assume you want to bet on movie theaters. To me, that’s akin to ignoring Netflix in 2016 and betting on Blockbuster Video. But let’s assume that you believe the future of the entertainment industry is movie theaters.\nMacquarie Research analystChad Beynonrecently released a note that included a deep dive into the entire movie theater industry.\nIn the note, Beynon downgraded AMC stock and had some harsh words about its valuation. He pointed out that AMC shares are up more than 500% in the past 12 months, while the movie theater group as a whole is up just 11%.\nBeynon also said AMC will not be free cash flow positive until 2023.\n“Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn; normalized maintenance capex is ~$140m, and annual interest is ~$420m,” Beynon says.\nMacquarie has an “underperform” rating and $6 price target for AMC stock.\nInstead, Baynon named IMAX as his top movie theater stock pick. IMAX is growing, it has a much healthier balance sheet than AMC and it is a much better value. In the past seven years, IMAX has grown its total number of screens from 863 to 1,654, Beynon said.\n“Additionally, we believe the company’s leading margins and well-capitalized balance sheet support our positive view,” he says.\nMacquarie has an “outperform” rating and $26 price target for IMAX stock.\nDon’t Pair Trade\nAMC stock apes won’t care about anything Macquarie has to say. They certainly don’t care what I haveto say. They like the stock.\nBut for people that want to make sound long-term investments, AMC stock is not the way to play a movie theater recovery. AMC stock trades at 28.2x sales. IMAX trades at 5.2x sales. AMC stock has $3.7 billion in net debt. IMAX has $11.8 million in net debt.\nIn 2019, AMC generated a net loss of $149 million. IMAX generated a net profit of $46.8 million.\nTo be clear, I wouldn’t and haven’t invested in either of these stocks. I believe movie theater ticket sales were likely insecular declineeven before the pandemic. But IMAX is clearly more appealing as a movie theater rebound investment in virtually every way compared to AMC stock.\nBefore I wrap up, I want to add one warning. Normally, I’d recommend a pair trade in which investors go long IMAX stock and short AMC stock. In this case, I would never short AMC stock under any circumstances. AMC stock price disconnected from reality a long time ago. It is now the ultimate cult stock.\nAMC stock trading at a $24.5 billion market cap is just as insane as it trading at a $245 billion market cap. Once a stock is disconnected from fundamentals, it can go anywhere in the near term. Do not short AMC stock unless you are prepared to endure very heavy losses.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166679425,"gmtCreate":1624008672967,"gmtModify":1631892153608,"author":{"id":"3579088932518063","authorId":"3579088932518063","name":"Strider88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579088932518063","authorIdStr":"3579088932518063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Funny how you guys keep posting the same shiz this week","listText":"Funny how you guys keep posting the same shiz this week","text":"Funny how you guys keep posting the same shiz this week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166679425","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>\n <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>\n <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>\n <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p>\n<p><b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p>\n<p>Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p>\n<p>Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p>\n<p><b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p>\n<p>I start with the key assumptions:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>My time frame for reference</i> is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p>\n<p><i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p>\n<p><b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p>\n<p><b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p>\n<p><b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p>\n<p><b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p>\n<p><b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p>\n<p>We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>\n <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p>\n<p>We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p>\n<p><i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p>\n<p><b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p>\n<p>Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p>\n<p>Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p>\n<blockquote>\n “[\n <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Pretty clever, no? No:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Uh oh. What now?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Ouch.</p>\n<p><b>Buyers beware</b></p>\n<p>As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p>\n<p>AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327170566,"gmtCreate":1616074199055,"gmtModify":1631892153611,"author":{"id":"3579088932518063","authorId":"3579088932518063","name":"Strider88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579088932518063","authorIdStr":"3579088932518063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agreed","listText":"Agreed","text":"Agreed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327170566","repostId":"1126528554","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126528554","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616070017,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126528554?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 20:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Reasons to Avoid the Reddit Stocks Like the Plague","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126528554","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"GameStop, AMC, Sundial, and many more Reddit stocks are bad news for investors.No matter how long yo","content":"<blockquote><b>GameStop, AMC, Sundial, and many more Reddit stocks are bad news for investors.</b></blockquote><p>No matter how long you've been investing, there's always something new to see. Last year, investors witnessed the fastest bear market decline of at least 30% in the<b>S&P 500</b>'s history, as well as West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plunging deeply (but briefly) into negative territory. This year, it's beenall about the Reddit frenzy.</p><p>Without getting too far into the weeds, retail investors -- many of whom are young or novice investors -- on Reddit's WallStreetBets (WSB) community chatroom have effectively banded together to purchase shares and out-of-the-money call options on stocks with high levels of short interest. The goal of these WSB traders is to effect a short squeeze, which only fuels the upside in a momentum stock. Since most big short-sellers are institutional investors or hedge funds, the Reddit frenzy is being viewed as a battle between retail investors and the \"big money.\"</p><p>While a number of Reddit stocks have skyrocketed, the vast majority are extremely dangerous investments. Here are seven sound reasons to avoid the Reddit stocks like the plague.</p><p><b>1. They've detached from their underlying fundamentals</b></p><p>Arguably the biggest problem with the Reddit-stock rally is that there's no way to justify the underlying fundamentals for these companies.</p><p>Take video game and accessories retailer<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME)as the perfect example. Though its e-commerce sales during the 2020 holiday season catapulted 309%,total sales still declined by 3%as a result of the company shuttering 11% of its stores. After waiting far too long to focus on digital gaming, GameStop's game plan is pretty much to close physical locations in an effort to cut costs and backpedal its way into profitability.</p><p>Then there's headphone, headset, and Bluetooth speaker-manufacturer<b>Koss</b>(NASDAQ:KOSS). After consistently trading at 0.5 to 1.1 times sales over the last decade, Koss is now valued at an estimated 11 to 12 times sales. Mind you, this is a company operating in a highly commoditized and generally low-margin industry that's lost money in three of the past four years. There'sno way to justify its valuation.</p><p><b>2. They're often serial diluters</b></p><p>When questionable stocks take off, you can usually count on the management teams behind these companies to use this gift as an opportunity to raise capital. In layman's terms, this means shareholders are forced to deal with dilution.</p><p>Canadianmarijuana stock<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)has raised more than $600 million in cash in a very short time frame. However, the numerous registered direct offerings, at-the-market offerings, and debt-to-equity swaps it undertookincreased its outstanding share countby approximately 1.15 billion shares in five months. Sundial's board also recently OK'd another mixed-shelf offering that would allow it to sell up to $1 billion in securities over time.</p><p>Even if Sundial were to somehow become profitable and effectively put its cash to work, it'll be almost impossible for the company to generate a meaningful per-share profit with 1.66 billion shares outstanding. Without a reverse split, Sundial could regularly flirt with delisting.</p><p><b>3. They usually lose money</b></p><p>A common theme among the Reddit stocks is that most aren't anywhere close to profitability. For instance, intimate apparel and swimwear retailer<b>Naked Brand Group</b>(NASDAQ:NAKD)has been popular both for its high level of short interest and its penny stock share price.</p><p>However, one thing you're not going to find with this company is profits.Sales have been on the decline since 2018, and the company hasn't produced a full-year profit in at least a half-decade. While it's possible Naked Brands' shift to an e-commerce-focused model could help lower its overhead enough to make it profitable, it's far from a guarantee. The retail space is highly competitive, and even successful retailers sport only modest operating margins, at best.</p><p>It's worth pointing out that GameStop and Sundial are losing quite a bit of money, too -- as are most of the other Reddit stocks I'll be mentioning below.</p><p><b>4. Some lack innovation</b></p><p>Another issue with some of the Reddit stocks is that they lack true innovation. This can be seen in cryptocurrency miners<b>Riot Blockchain</b>(NASDAQ:RIOT)and<b>Marathon Digital Holdings</b>(NASDAQ:MARA), which have both been popular stocks within the WSB community.</p><p>Thesecryptocurrency miningcompanies use high-powered computers to solve complex mathematical equations to validate groups of transactions (known as a block) on<b>Bitcoin</b>'s(CRYPTO:BTC)network. For doing so, they're given a block reward of 6.25 Bitcoin. That's worth close to $350,000. As the price of Bitcoin has risen, so have the share prices of Riot and Marathon Digital.</p><p>The problem with these stocks is they're completely tethered to the performance of Bitcoin. Over the last decade, the world's largest digital token plunged by 80% on three separate occasions. If that were to happen again, it's not even clear if the crypto mining operating model would survive.Devoid of innovation, Riot and Marathon are essentially crossing their proverbial fingers and hoping Bitcoin goes up.</p><p><b>5. Quite a few are penny stocks</b></p><p>Retail investors in the WSB community have also been piling intopenny stocks, some of which are heavily sold short. Though penny stocks aren't inherently bad news, the vast majority of companies with share prices below $5 are \"cheap\" for a good reason.</p><p>Veterinary healthcare company<b>Zomedica</b>(NYSEMKT:ZOM)has been an especially popular penny stock with the Reddit crowd. Zomedica first received a boost in January after<i>Tiger King</i>star Carole Baskin mentioned the stock -- a mention Baskin was compensated for -- in a video posted to YouTube. Zomedica's shares gained further traction after the company announced plans to launch its Truforma point-of-care diagnostics system at the end of March.</p><p>But up to this point, Zomedica has been a developmental-stage company with no revenue. Even after Truforma officially hits the market, Wall Street is only counting on a little north of $20 million in sales by 2023. That'speanuts compared to Zomedica's $2.4 billion valuation.</p><p><b>6. Some may not survive</b></p><p>There's also the very real possibility that some of the Reddit stocks being pumped by retail investors may not even survive.</p><p>Movie-theater chain<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC), arguably the most-popular WSB stock next to GameStop, came perilously close to filing for bankruptcy earlier this year. All that saved AMC was the issuance of nearly 165 million shares of AMC stock and more than $400 million in debt capital.</p><p>But even with this capital,it's not certain that AMC will be around in a few years. Coronavirus variants threaten to upend a return to societal norms, and select streaming services are encroaching on theaters' once-sacred space.<b>AT&T</b> subsidiary WarnerMedia is releasing all of its movies on HBO Max this year the same day they'll hit theaters. With movie exclusivity now being called into question, AMC's best days look to be long gone.</p><p><b>7. Margin use is a concern</b></p><p>A seventh and final reason to avoid the Reddit stocks like the plague is thehigh amount of leverage being used by retail investors.</p><p>According to a Harris Poll of retail investors conducted back in September 2020, 23% had purchased options, 10% were using margin to buy equities, and another 10% were both buying equities on margin and purchasing options. In other words, 43% of all retail investors were speculating with market timing and/or using leverage in an attempt to pump up their gains.</p><p>The problem is that market timing doesn't work with any degree of accuracy over the long run, and stock prices can (and do) move in both directions. If equities get moving in the wrong direction with retail investors highly levered, it's possible we could see a number of Reddit stocks get absolutely throttled due to margin calls.</p><p>There's simply no reason for fundamentally focused, long-term investors to chase any of the Reddit stocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Reasons to Avoid the Reddit Stocks Like the Plague</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Reasons to Avoid the Reddit Stocks Like the Plague\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-18 20:20 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/7-reasons-to-avoid-reddit-stocks-like-the-plague/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GameStop, AMC, Sundial, and many more Reddit stocks are bad news for investors.No matter how long you've been investing, there's always something new to see. Last year, investors witnessed the fastest...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/7-reasons-to-avoid-reddit-stocks-like-the-plague/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/7-reasons-to-avoid-reddit-stocks-like-the-plague/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126528554","content_text":"GameStop, AMC, Sundial, and many more Reddit stocks are bad news for investors.No matter how long you've been investing, there's always something new to see. Last year, investors witnessed the fastest bear market decline of at least 30% in theS&P 500's history, as well as West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plunging deeply (but briefly) into negative territory. This year, it's beenall about the Reddit frenzy.Without getting too far into the weeds, retail investors -- many of whom are young or novice investors -- on Reddit's WallStreetBets (WSB) community chatroom have effectively banded together to purchase shares and out-of-the-money call options on stocks with high levels of short interest. The goal of these WSB traders is to effect a short squeeze, which only fuels the upside in a momentum stock. Since most big short-sellers are institutional investors or hedge funds, the Reddit frenzy is being viewed as a battle between retail investors and the \"big money.\"While a number of Reddit stocks have skyrocketed, the vast majority are extremely dangerous investments. Here are seven sound reasons to avoid the Reddit stocks like the plague.1. They've detached from their underlying fundamentalsArguably the biggest problem with the Reddit-stock rally is that there's no way to justify the underlying fundamentals for these companies.Take video game and accessories retailerGameStop(NYSE:GME)as the perfect example. Though its e-commerce sales during the 2020 holiday season catapulted 309%,total sales still declined by 3%as a result of the company shuttering 11% of its stores. After waiting far too long to focus on digital gaming, GameStop's game plan is pretty much to close physical locations in an effort to cut costs and backpedal its way into profitability.Then there's headphone, headset, and Bluetooth speaker-manufacturerKoss(NASDAQ:KOSS). After consistently trading at 0.5 to 1.1 times sales over the last decade, Koss is now valued at an estimated 11 to 12 times sales. Mind you, this is a company operating in a highly commoditized and generally low-margin industry that's lost money in three of the past four years. There'sno way to justify its valuation.2. They're often serial dilutersWhen questionable stocks take off, you can usually count on the management teams behind these companies to use this gift as an opportunity to raise capital. In layman's terms, this means shareholders are forced to deal with dilution.Canadianmarijuana stockSundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)has raised more than $600 million in cash in a very short time frame. However, the numerous registered direct offerings, at-the-market offerings, and debt-to-equity swaps it undertookincreased its outstanding share countby approximately 1.15 billion shares in five months. Sundial's board also recently OK'd another mixed-shelf offering that would allow it to sell up to $1 billion in securities over time.Even if Sundial were to somehow become profitable and effectively put its cash to work, it'll be almost impossible for the company to generate a meaningful per-share profit with 1.66 billion shares outstanding. Without a reverse split, Sundial could regularly flirt with delisting.3. They usually lose moneyA common theme among the Reddit stocks is that most aren't anywhere close to profitability. For instance, intimate apparel and swimwear retailerNaked Brand Group(NASDAQ:NAKD)has been popular both for its high level of short interest and its penny stock share price.However, one thing you're not going to find with this company is profits.Sales have been on the decline since 2018, and the company hasn't produced a full-year profit in at least a half-decade. While it's possible Naked Brands' shift to an e-commerce-focused model could help lower its overhead enough to make it profitable, it's far from a guarantee. The retail space is highly competitive, and even successful retailers sport only modest operating margins, at best.It's worth pointing out that GameStop and Sundial are losing quite a bit of money, too -- as are most of the other Reddit stocks I'll be mentioning below.4. Some lack innovationAnother issue with some of the Reddit stocks is that they lack true innovation. This can be seen in cryptocurrency minersRiot Blockchain(NASDAQ:RIOT)andMarathon Digital Holdings(NASDAQ:MARA), which have both been popular stocks within the WSB community.Thesecryptocurrency miningcompanies use high-powered computers to solve complex mathematical equations to validate groups of transactions (known as a block) onBitcoin's(CRYPTO:BTC)network. For doing so, they're given a block reward of 6.25 Bitcoin. That's worth close to $350,000. As the price of Bitcoin has risen, so have the share prices of Riot and Marathon Digital.The problem with these stocks is they're completely tethered to the performance of Bitcoin. Over the last decade, the world's largest digital token plunged by 80% on three separate occasions. If that were to happen again, it's not even clear if the crypto mining operating model would survive.Devoid of innovation, Riot and Marathon are essentially crossing their proverbial fingers and hoping Bitcoin goes up.5. Quite a few are penny stocksRetail investors in the WSB community have also been piling intopenny stocks, some of which are heavily sold short. Though penny stocks aren't inherently bad news, the vast majority of companies with share prices below $5 are \"cheap\" for a good reason.Veterinary healthcare companyZomedica(NYSEMKT:ZOM)has been an especially popular penny stock with the Reddit crowd. Zomedica first received a boost in January afterTiger Kingstar Carole Baskin mentioned the stock -- a mention Baskin was compensated for -- in a video posted to YouTube. Zomedica's shares gained further traction after the company announced plans to launch its Truforma point-of-care diagnostics system at the end of March.But up to this point, Zomedica has been a developmental-stage company with no revenue. Even after Truforma officially hits the market, Wall Street is only counting on a little north of $20 million in sales by 2023. That'speanuts compared to Zomedica's $2.4 billion valuation.6. Some may not surviveThere's also the very real possibility that some of the Reddit stocks being pumped by retail investors may not even survive.Movie-theater chainAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC), arguably the most-popular WSB stock next to GameStop, came perilously close to filing for bankruptcy earlier this year. All that saved AMC was the issuance of nearly 165 million shares of AMC stock and more than $400 million in debt capital.But even with this capital,it's not certain that AMC will be around in a few years. Coronavirus variants threaten to upend a return to societal norms, and select streaming services are encroaching on theaters' once-sacred space.AT&T subsidiary WarnerMedia is releasing all of its movies on HBO Max this year the same day they'll hit theaters. With movie exclusivity now being called into question, AMC's best days look to be long gone.7. Margin use is a concernA seventh and final reason to avoid the Reddit stocks like the plague is thehigh amount of leverage being used by retail investors.According to a Harris Poll of retail investors conducted back in September 2020, 23% had purchased options, 10% were using margin to buy equities, and another 10% were both buying equities on margin and purchasing options. In other words, 43% of all retail investors were speculating with market timing and/or using leverage in an attempt to pump up their gains.The problem is that market timing doesn't work with any degree of accuracy over the long run, and stock prices can (and do) move in both directions. If equities get moving in the wrong direction with retail investors highly levered, it's possible we could see a number of Reddit stocks get absolutely throttled due to margin calls.There's simply no reason for fundamentally focused, long-term investors to chase any of the Reddit stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327170170,"gmtCreate":1616074148390,"gmtModify":1631892153612,"author":{"id":"3579088932518063","authorId":"3579088932518063","name":"Strider88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579088932518063","authorIdStr":"3579088932518063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327170170","repostId":"1162260876","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162260876","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616070584,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162260876?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 20:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Tech Stocks That Could Make You Rich","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162260876","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These tech companies are disrupting the status quo -- that could mean big gains for investors.\n\nAs t","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>These tech companies are disrupting the status quo -- that could mean big gains for investors.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>As time passes and technology changes, some well-established enterprises will fade from relevance as lesser-known start-ups rise in their place. The tricky part is finding those potentially life-changing investments early on.</p>\n<p>Fortunately, companies that achieve great success tend to havecertain traits in common. For instance, they are often first movers in emerging industries. That could mean developing a new product or tackling an old problem with a novel solution.</p>\n<p>Enterprises like<b>Lemonade</b>(NYSE:LMND)and<b>Arista Networks</b>(NYSE:ANET)check that box. Here's why investing in these two tech companies could make you rich.</p>\n<p><b>1. Lemonade: AI-powered insurance</b></p>\n<p>Lemonade is atech companythat sells insurance. Though its initial focus was on renters and homeowners policies, it entered the pet insurance andterm life insurancemarkets in 2020, and it plans to expand its portfolio again in 2021.</p>\n<p>Lemonade's digital approach to insurance differs dramatically from its rivals. While traditional insurers have agents who sell policies and handle claims, Lemonade automates these processes with AI-powered chatbots. In fact, the company uses artificial intelligence to improve virtually every aspect of its business: Marketing, underwriting, fraud detection, and the customer experience.</p>\n<p>So far, the results are encouraging. Lemonade's loss ratio dropped to 71% in 2020, meaning the company paid out $0.71 in claims for every $1 in earned premiums. That's a big improvement from its 161% loss ratio in 2017. More importantly, it puts Lemonade roughly in line with the top 20 property and casualty (P&C) insurance companies, which have an average loss ratio of roughly 72% in recent years.</p>\n<p>Likewise, Lemonade's sales and marketing expenses actually decreased 9% in 2020, but its customer base grew 56% and its premium per customer grew 20% during the same time period. In other words, Lemonade's AI-powered marketing is becoming more efficient.</p>\n<p>Moreover, the addition of new customers (and the rising premium per customer) have powered impressive growth in gross profit.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe9c0bb388bfcabfac1abcc4df7859f\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"130\">But Lemonade has one more trick up its sleeve. The company also purchases reinsurance (insurance for insurance companies) to make its business less volatile. While this strategy cuts into Lemonade's top line, it also stabilizes its gross margin -- in fact, management estimates that Lemonade's gross margin will vary by no more than 3% in 95 out of every 100 years. That type of consistency is impressive in an industry that can literally depend on the weather.</p>\n<p>Investors should be aware that Lemonade is much smaller than market-leading rivals like<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>'s group of insurance brands and<b>Allstate</b>. But the insurance industry is enormous, generating over $5 trillion in annual premiums worldwide. That means Lemonade has a massive opportunity, and capturing even a few percentage points of that market would translate into tens of billions of dollars on the top line. Moreover, the company's AI-powered business should give it a long-term advantage over its rivals.</p>\n<p><b>2. Arista Networks: Software-driven networking</b></p>\n<p>Arista provides networking solutions (switches and software) for data centers and enterprise campus environments. Since its inception, the company's software-driven approach to networking has differentiated it from<b>Cisco</b>and<b>Juniper Networks</b>. For example, rather than selling discrete routers like its rivals, Arista's software allows its R-Series switches to double as advanced routing platforms. This reduces cost and complexity for Arista's clients.</p>\n<p>As part of its enterprise portfolio, Arista launched its 750 series campus switch last November. This new product line offers 400 Gbps (gigabits per second) of total bandwidth -- five times more than the closest competitor -- and helps clients create fast, secure WiFi networks. Like all Arista hardware, these new switches are powered by merchant silicon rather than costly proprietary chips used by rivals.</p>\n<p>Arista's decision to use merchant silicon has been a big advantage for two reasons. First, it allows the company to launch new products quickly while still incorporating the latest chip technology. Second, it makes Arista more efficient than its rivals, because the company doesn't spend money to develop chips in-house. Ultimately, Arista can pass those savings on to customers, meaning its products come at a better price-to-performance ratio.</p>\n<p>Over the last decade, these advantages have helped Arista take significant market share in the high-speed data center switching market (10 Gbps and above). Meanwhile, Cisco's market share has trended downward, though the company is still the leader.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8a65fe6051b194a534671172a1615d\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"171\">In the coming years, the proliferation of connected devices (thinkInternet of Things) and computer-intensive applications (thinkartificial intelligence) will place more demand on data centers. That will create a need for more powerful networking solutions. As theleading providerof 100 Gbps and 400 Gbps switches, Arista is well-positioned to grow its top line quickly and continue taking market share.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Tech Stocks That Could Make You Rich</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Tech Stocks That Could Make You Rich\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-18 20:29 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/2-tech-stocks-that-could-make-you-rich/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These tech companies are disrupting the status quo -- that could mean big gains for investors.\n\nAs time passes and technology changes, some well-established enterprises will fade from relevance as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/2-tech-stocks-that-could-make-you-rich/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ANET":"Arista Networks, Inc.","LMND":"Lemonade, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/2-tech-stocks-that-could-make-you-rich/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162260876","content_text":"These tech companies are disrupting the status quo -- that could mean big gains for investors.\n\nAs time passes and technology changes, some well-established enterprises will fade from relevance as lesser-known start-ups rise in their place. The tricky part is finding those potentially life-changing investments early on.\nFortunately, companies that achieve great success tend to havecertain traits in common. For instance, they are often first movers in emerging industries. That could mean developing a new product or tackling an old problem with a novel solution.\nEnterprises likeLemonade(NYSE:LMND)andArista Networks(NYSE:ANET)check that box. Here's why investing in these two tech companies could make you rich.\n1. Lemonade: AI-powered insurance\nLemonade is atech companythat sells insurance. Though its initial focus was on renters and homeowners policies, it entered the pet insurance andterm life insurancemarkets in 2020, and it plans to expand its portfolio again in 2021.\nLemonade's digital approach to insurance differs dramatically from its rivals. While traditional insurers have agents who sell policies and handle claims, Lemonade automates these processes with AI-powered chatbots. In fact, the company uses artificial intelligence to improve virtually every aspect of its business: Marketing, underwriting, fraud detection, and the customer experience.\nSo far, the results are encouraging. Lemonade's loss ratio dropped to 71% in 2020, meaning the company paid out $0.71 in claims for every $1 in earned premiums. That's a big improvement from its 161% loss ratio in 2017. More importantly, it puts Lemonade roughly in line with the top 20 property and casualty (P&C) insurance companies, which have an average loss ratio of roughly 72% in recent years.\nLikewise, Lemonade's sales and marketing expenses actually decreased 9% in 2020, but its customer base grew 56% and its premium per customer grew 20% during the same time period. In other words, Lemonade's AI-powered marketing is becoming more efficient.\nMoreover, the addition of new customers (and the rising premium per customer) have powered impressive growth in gross profit.\nBut Lemonade has one more trick up its sleeve. The company also purchases reinsurance (insurance for insurance companies) to make its business less volatile. While this strategy cuts into Lemonade's top line, it also stabilizes its gross margin -- in fact, management estimates that Lemonade's gross margin will vary by no more than 3% in 95 out of every 100 years. That type of consistency is impressive in an industry that can literally depend on the weather.\nInvestors should be aware that Lemonade is much smaller than market-leading rivals likeBerkshire Hathaway's group of insurance brands andAllstate. But the insurance industry is enormous, generating over $5 trillion in annual premiums worldwide. That means Lemonade has a massive opportunity, and capturing even a few percentage points of that market would translate into tens of billions of dollars on the top line. Moreover, the company's AI-powered business should give it a long-term advantage over its rivals.\n2. Arista Networks: Software-driven networking\nArista provides networking solutions (switches and software) for data centers and enterprise campus environments. Since its inception, the company's software-driven approach to networking has differentiated it fromCiscoandJuniper Networks. For example, rather than selling discrete routers like its rivals, Arista's software allows its R-Series switches to double as advanced routing platforms. This reduces cost and complexity for Arista's clients.\nAs part of its enterprise portfolio, Arista launched its 750 series campus switch last November. This new product line offers 400 Gbps (gigabits per second) of total bandwidth -- five times more than the closest competitor -- and helps clients create fast, secure WiFi networks. Like all Arista hardware, these new switches are powered by merchant silicon rather than costly proprietary chips used by rivals.\nArista's decision to use merchant silicon has been a big advantage for two reasons. First, it allows the company to launch new products quickly while still incorporating the latest chip technology. Second, it makes Arista more efficient than its rivals, because the company doesn't spend money to develop chips in-house. Ultimately, Arista can pass those savings on to customers, meaning its products come at a better price-to-performance ratio.\nOver the last decade, these advantages have helped Arista take significant market share in the high-speed data center switching market (10 Gbps and above). Meanwhile, Cisco's market share has trended downward, though the company is still the leader.\nIn the coming years, the proliferation of connected devices (thinkInternet of Things) and computer-intensive applications (thinkartificial intelligence) will place more demand on data centers. That will create a need for more powerful networking solutions. As theleading providerof 100 Gbps and 400 Gbps switches, Arista is well-positioned to grow its top line quickly and continue taking market share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}