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- JoaoSJoaoS
  ·2021-06-18
  To the moon or not? [Miser]
  Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>
  Summary Palantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base an
  Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>
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- JoaoSJoaoS
  ·2021-06-18
  [Shy]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- JoaoSJoaoS
  ·2021-06-18
  [Spurting]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- JoaoSJoaoS
  ·2021-06-18
  Ok noted
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- JoaoSJoaoS
  ·2021-06-18
  [Smug]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- JoaoSJoaoS
  ·2021-06-16
  When will they conclude?
  The Fed Should Talk About Tapering. Here’s What Could Happen to the Stock Market.<blockquote>美联储应该讨论缩减规模。以下是股市可能发生的情况。</blockquote>
  Investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain supportive of the economy and financial markets. But
  The Fed Should Talk About Tapering. Here’s What Could Happen to the Stock Market.<blockquote>美联储应该讨论缩减规模。以下是股市可能发生的情况。</blockquote>
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,"htmlText":"To the moon or not? [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"To the moon or not? [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"To the moon or not? [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166973292","repostId":"1180977741","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180977741","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623981539,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180977741?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180977741","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base an","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.</li>  <li>But the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.</li>  <li>Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abc7f93f4c7e615f66dca20523d1c16\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1077\"><span>C Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir经常因其高估值倍数、停滞的客户群和黯淡的利润率而受到批评。</li><li>但该公司实际上在客户增长、利润率扩张和赢得政府订单方面表现良好。</li><li>具有长期视野的投资者可能希望在潜在的价格调整时增持其股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>C·弗拉尼根/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)最近在各种投资论坛上因投机原因而受到严厉批评，例如其增长势头可能很快就会消失、其利润率状况如何拖累公司以及该股没有证明其溢价是合理的。但这家公司并没有那么糟糕。相反，这家数据分析公司在客户增长、政府订单赢得和利润率扩张等多个参数上表现良好，这对其多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，并消除此类投机性看跌叙事。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapid Customer Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.</p><p><blockquote>自Palantir上市以来，看空者一直批评其定制功能。其平台涉及针对各种工作流程和客户需求的定制，因此看空者认为该公司在同时吸引多个客户方面面临困难，因此，它遇到了瓶颈，其增长势头可能会消失。虽然我尊重不同的意见，但事实是Palantir似乎并没有在客户添加方面遇到困难。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，该公司的客户数量环比增长超过7%。我们在Business Quant的数据库显示，这一增长速度实际上高于软件应用和基础设施行业的其他一些知名公司报告的增长速度。这立即消除了Palantir因其定制功能而在扩大客户关系方面面临困难的说法，尽管它在这方面的表现优于同行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37577e60466b8a980efd8bee77b02711\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly&nbsp;payment model, ramping up its&nbsp;sales function&nbsp;and introducing&nbsp;free trials&nbsp;for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.</p><p><blockquote>我的读者不应该对该公司增加客户的速度感到惊讶。我在之前的文章中解释了该公司如何采取一系列措施来扩大客户群，例如采用客户友好的支付模式、增强销售功能以及为主要企业引入免费试用。这些举措是几个月前才宣布的，并将持续到2021财年的剩余时间，因此我预计Palantir在不久的将来也会继续快速增加客户。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，不可否认的是，Palantir的客户群不如一些同行那么大，但这也是其增长机会所在。这表明Palantir尚未大规模渗透其目标市场，其较低的基数效应使该公司更容易继续高速扩大其客户群。</blockquote></p><p> There are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:</p><p><blockquote>这里大致有四个要点，顺便说一句，空头似乎一次又一次地打折。这些是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,</li>  <li>These new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,</li>  <li>If these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,</li>  <li>If these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.</li> </ul> Regarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的目标市场尚未饱和，仍然可以轻松找到新客户，</li><li>这些新客户势必会在2021年以不同幅度提升公司的收入，具体取决于其合同价值，</li><li>如果这些是经常性合同，那么这将提高Palantir未来的收入预测和指导，</li><li>如果这些新客户最终增加支出，那么这也将增加Palantir未来的现金流。</li></ul>关于最后一个要点，值得注意的是，Palantir的前20名客户总体上在过去10年中每年都大幅增加了在该公司数据分析平台上的支出。这批新客户以及任何未来新增的客户也可能在随后几年经历这一支出扩张阶段，并在此过程中逐渐增加Palantir的收入。因此，我们必须对其快速的客户增长给予应有的重视，而不是掉以轻心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4923a1dd5cc6af812c6dd7b8335f878\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Margin Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利润扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> Another issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>评估Palantir增长前景的另一个问题是该公司尚未盈利。虽然一些人认为该股由于利润率疲弱而将保持低迷，但另一些人则认为该股可能会跌至个位数。鉴于该公司最近一个季度每股净亏损0.07美元，这种沮丧是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facd3a7bf5326c841c6f0e79d392d160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.</p><p><blockquote>但我想亲眼看看Palantir的利润率是否真的像许多人认为的那样无望。因此，我编制了大约90只在美国证券交易所上市的软件基础设施股票的保证金概况。不可否认，该公司的净利润率是亏损的。但令人惊讶的是，Palantir实际上是同行中第一季度净利润增长率最高的公司之一。据我所知，Palantir业务的这一方面尚未在任何投资论坛上讨论过。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25614333f421bbcdaf90b43a6ed8e011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.</p><p><blockquote>该公司到目前为止可能尚未盈利，但这并不意味着它未来也将保持无利可图。如果其最近的利润率扩张步伐在未来几个季度继续下去，该公司可能会在未来2到3年内实现盈利，而不会牺牲其增长势头。所以，让我们给予应有的信任。专业分析师社区也认同这一想法，并预计Palantir的利润率状况未来将大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0017c547d56295730e8f7f4124935d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>(Source:MarketScreener)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：MarketScreener）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于现在涉及公众持股，其管理层可能会面临持续的压力，以实现惊人的收入增长率，和/或在不久的将来实现盈利，否则将面临被投票罢免的风险。这种压力可能没有直接上市前那么大，当时参与的股东较少。因此，总体而言，我不认为Palantir的利润率状况像许多人认为的那样毫无希望，我预计该公司将在2024年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Government Contract Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>赢得政府合同</b></blockquote></p><p> Moving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，Palantir在获得政府合同方面做得非常好。考虑到广泛的资格标准、较长的周转时间和激烈的竞争，B2G合同通常很难赢得，但Palantir似乎已经找到了在政府业务方面取得成功的秘诀。对于外行人来说，第一季度其政府合同收入同比增长76%，约占公司总收入的61%。</blockquote></p><p> Unless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>除非公司在某个地方搞砸了，否则这些政府机构很可能会在内部推荐它用于各种应用。他们不必一次又一次地对Palantir进行资格认证，这些标准可能会快速推动这些内部跨机构推荐，这些机构甚至可能会增加在现有合同上的支出。因此，Palantir只需要冲洗并重复其B2G（企业对政府）战略，其政府收入就可以继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Palantir在第二季度的政府业务方面也取得了稳步进展。其第二季度仍在进行中，但在撰写本文时，该公司从政府交易、协议和合同中承担了价值超过3600万美元的新当前行动义务，其中大部分尚未成为头条新闻。对于门外汉来说，新交易可能是对现有交易的补充，扩大了先前商定的可交付成果的范围，它可能是全新的，具有从几个月到几年的不同执行期和/或还具有附加的经常性收入流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091203d7b476076ff008ca0c3b0f6ad2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然有几个变量阻止我们可靠地估计这些交易的近期收入影响，但Palantir的长期股东应该感到放心，他们的公司在发展政府业务方面继续取得稳步进展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的股价目前约为过去12个月销售额的43倍，不可否认，按照传统标准，这一数字很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40584e7d2ca5458e8609338887f80e2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其丰厚的估值本身不应成为熊市论点的基础。Palantir的估值倍数可能很高，但从上图中可以看出，其第一季度的收入增长率也高于大多数同行。</blockquote></p><p> So, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.</p><p><blockquote>所以，我相信价格溢价的合理性在于公司的快速收入增长速度（如上图所示）、本文讨论的质的增长催化剂以及政府收入流相对稳定。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Keeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些因素，具有多年时间范围的投资者可能希望在潜在价格调整时增加对Palantir的投资。随着其增长催化剂最终实现以及公司接近盈利，该股可能会在未来2到3年内创下新高。祝你好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.</li>  <li>But the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.</li>  <li>Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abc7f93f4c7e615f66dca20523d1c16\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1077\"><span>C Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir经常因其高估值倍数、停滞的客户群和黯淡的利润率而受到批评。</li><li>但该公司实际上在客户增长、利润率扩张和赢得政府订单方面表现良好。</li><li>具有长期视野的投资者可能希望在潜在的价格调整时增持其股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>C·弗拉尼根/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)最近在各种投资论坛上因投机原因而受到严厉批评，例如其增长势头可能很快就会消失、其利润率状况如何拖累公司以及该股没有证明其溢价是合理的。但这家公司并没有那么糟糕。相反，这家数据分析公司在客户增长、政府订单赢得和利润率扩张等多个参数上表现良好，这对其多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，并消除此类投机性看跌叙事。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapid Customer Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.</p><p><blockquote>自Palantir上市以来，看空者一直批评其定制功能。其平台涉及针对各种工作流程和客户需求的定制，因此看空者认为该公司在同时吸引多个客户方面面临困难，因此，它遇到了瓶颈，其增长势头可能会消失。虽然我尊重不同的意见，但事实是Palantir似乎并没有在客户添加方面遇到困难。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，该公司的客户数量环比增长超过7%。我们在Business Quant的数据库显示，这一增长速度实际上高于软件应用和基础设施行业的其他一些知名公司报告的增长速度。这立即消除了Palantir因其定制功能而在扩大客户关系方面面临困难的说法，尽管它在这方面的表现优于同行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37577e60466b8a980efd8bee77b02711\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly&nbsp;payment model, ramping up its&nbsp;sales function&nbsp;and introducing&nbsp;free trials&nbsp;for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.</p><p><blockquote>我的读者不应该对该公司增加客户的速度感到惊讶。我在之前的文章中解释了该公司如何采取一系列措施来扩大客户群，例如采用客户友好的支付模式、增强销售功能以及为主要企业引入免费试用。这些举措是几个月前才宣布的，并将持续到2021财年的剩余时间，因此我预计Palantir在不久的将来也会继续快速增加客户。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，不可否认的是，Palantir的客户群不如一些同行那么大，但这也是其增长机会所在。这表明Palantir尚未大规模渗透其目标市场，其较低的基数效应使该公司更容易继续高速扩大其客户群。</blockquote></p><p> There are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:</p><p><blockquote>这里大致有四个要点，顺便说一句，空头似乎一次又一次地打折。这些是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,</li>  <li>These new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,</li>  <li>If these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,</li>  <li>If these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.</li> </ul> Regarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的目标市场尚未饱和，仍然可以轻松找到新客户，</li><li>这些新客户势必会在2021年以不同幅度提升公司的收入，具体取决于其合同价值，</li><li>如果这些是经常性合同，那么这将提高Palantir未来的收入预测和指导，</li><li>如果这些新客户最终增加支出，那么这也将增加Palantir未来的现金流。</li></ul>关于最后一个要点，值得注意的是，Palantir的前20名客户总体上在过去10年中每年都大幅增加了在该公司数据分析平台上的支出。这批新客户以及任何未来新增的客户也可能在随后几年经历这一支出扩张阶段，并在此过程中逐渐增加Palantir的收入。因此，我们必须对其快速的客户增长给予应有的重视，而不是掉以轻心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4923a1dd5cc6af812c6dd7b8335f878\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Margin Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利润扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> Another issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>评估Palantir增长前景的另一个问题是该公司尚未盈利。虽然一些人认为该股由于利润率疲弱而将保持低迷，但另一些人则认为该股可能会跌至个位数。鉴于该公司最近一个季度每股净亏损0.07美元，这种沮丧是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facd3a7bf5326c841c6f0e79d392d160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.</p><p><blockquote>但我想亲眼看看Palantir的利润率是否真的像许多人认为的那样无望。因此，我编制了大约90只在美国证券交易所上市的软件基础设施股票的保证金概况。不可否认，该公司的净利润率是亏损的。但令人惊讶的是，Palantir实际上是同行中第一季度净利润增长率最高的公司之一。据我所知，Palantir业务的这一方面尚未在任何投资论坛上讨论过。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25614333f421bbcdaf90b43a6ed8e011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.</p><p><blockquote>该公司到目前为止可能尚未盈利，但这并不意味着它未来也将保持无利可图。如果其最近的利润率扩张步伐在未来几个季度继续下去，该公司可能会在未来2到3年内实现盈利，而不会牺牲其增长势头。所以，让我们给予应有的信任。专业分析师社区也认同这一想法，并预计Palantir的利润率状况未来将大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0017c547d56295730e8f7f4124935d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>(Source:MarketScreener)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：MarketScreener）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于现在涉及公众持股，其管理层可能会面临持续的压力，以实现惊人的收入增长率，和/或在不久的将来实现盈利，否则将面临被投票罢免的风险。这种压力可能没有直接上市前那么大，当时参与的股东较少。因此，总体而言，我不认为Palantir的利润率状况像许多人认为的那样毫无希望，我预计该公司将在2024年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Government Contract Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>赢得政府合同</b></blockquote></p><p> Moving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，Palantir在获得政府合同方面做得非常好。考虑到广泛的资格标准、较长的周转时间和激烈的竞争，B2G合同通常很难赢得，但Palantir似乎已经找到了在政府业务方面取得成功的秘诀。对于外行人来说，第一季度其政府合同收入同比增长76%，约占公司总收入的61%。</blockquote></p><p> Unless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>除非公司在某个地方搞砸了，否则这些政府机构很可能会在内部推荐它用于各种应用。他们不必一次又一次地对Palantir进行资格认证，这些标准可能会快速推动这些内部跨机构推荐，这些机构甚至可能会增加在现有合同上的支出。因此，Palantir只需要冲洗并重复其B2G（企业对政府）战略，其政府收入就可以继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Palantir在第二季度的政府业务方面也取得了稳步进展。其第二季度仍在进行中，但在撰写本文时，该公司从政府交易、协议和合同中承担了价值超过3600万美元的新当前行动义务，其中大部分尚未成为头条新闻。对于门外汉来说，新交易可能是对现有交易的补充，扩大了先前商定的可交付成果的范围，它可能是全新的，具有从几个月到几年的不同执行期和/或还具有附加的经常性收入流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091203d7b476076ff008ca0c3b0f6ad2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然有几个变量阻止我们可靠地估计这些交易的近期收入影响，但Palantir的长期股东应该感到放心，他们的公司在发展政府业务方面继续取得稳步进展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的股价目前约为过去12个月销售额的43倍，不可否认，按照传统标准，这一数字很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40584e7d2ca5458e8609338887f80e2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其丰厚的估值本身不应成为熊市论点的基础。Palantir的估值倍数可能很高，但从上图中可以看出，其第一季度的收入增长率也高于大多数同行。</blockquote></p><p> So, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.</p><p><blockquote>所以，我相信价格溢价的合理性在于公司的快速收入增长速度（如上图所示）、本文讨论的质的增长催化剂以及政府收入流相对稳定。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Keeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些因素，具有多年时间范围的投资者可能希望在潜在价格调整时增加对Palantir的投资。随着其增长催化剂最终实现以及公司接近盈利，该股可能会在未来2到3年内创下新高。祝你好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435125-palantir-the-untold-truth\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435125-palantir-the-untold-truth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180977741","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.\nBut the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.\nInvestors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.\n\nC Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment\nPalantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.\nRapid Customer Growth\nBears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.\nThe company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.\n\nThe company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly payment model, ramping up its sales function and introducing free trials for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.\nHaving said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.\nThere are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:\n\nPalantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,\nThese new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,\nIf these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,\nIf these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.\n\nRegarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nMargin Expansion\nAnother issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nBut I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nThe company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.\n(Source:MarketScreener)\nBesides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.\nGovernment Contract Wins\nMoving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.\nUnless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.\nPalantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nSo, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.\nFinal Thoughts\nPalantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nHowever, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.\nSo, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.\nKeeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166970874,"gmtCreate":1623989866598,"gmtModify":1634024500760,"author":{"id":"3581916211599706","authorId":"3581916211599706","name":"JoaoS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d61599c91b834c5c6a16594e008450","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581916211599706","idStr":"3581916211599706"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Shy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Shy]&nbsp;","text":"[Shy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166970874","repostId":"2144946726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166945051,"gmtCreate":1623989771773,"gmtModify":1634024503921,"author":{"id":"3581916211599706","authorId":"3581916211599706","name":"JoaoS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d61599c91b834c5c6a16594e008450","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581916211599706","idStr":"3581916211599706"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Spurting]&nbsp;","listText":"[Spurting]&nbsp;","text":"[Spurting]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166945051","repostId":"1123762950","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166948424,"gmtCreate":1623989718068,"gmtModify":1634024505843,"author":{"id":"3581916211599706","authorId":"3581916211599706","name":"JoaoS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d61599c91b834c5c6a16594e008450","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581916211599706","idStr":"3581916211599706"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok noted","listText":"Ok noted","text":"Ok noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166948424","repostId":"2144742925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168964765,"gmtCreate":1623947221257,"gmtModify":1634025386733,"author":{"id":"3581916211599706","authorId":"3581916211599706","name":"JoaoS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d61599c91b834c5c6a16594e008450","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581916211599706","idStr":"3581916211599706"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smug]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smug]&nbsp;","text":"[Smug]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168964765","repostId":"2144742672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169575784,"gmtCreate":1623845698348,"gmtModify":1634027214612,"author":{"id":"3581916211599706","authorId":"3581916211599706","name":"JoaoS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d61599c91b834c5c6a16594e008450","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581916211599706","idStr":"3581916211599706"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When will they conclude?","listText":"When will they conclude?","text":"When will they conclude?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169575784","repostId":"1185142374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185142374","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623811255,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185142374?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 10:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Should Talk About Tapering. Here’s What Could Happen to the Stock Market.<blockquote>美联储应该讨论缩减规模。以下是股市可能发生的情况。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185142374","media":"Barrons","summary":"Investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain supportive of the economy and financial markets. But ","content":"<p>Investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain supportive of the economy and financial markets. But the central bank has limited margin for error, and any miscues on messaging could be costly to the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>投资者预计美联储将继续支持经济和金融市场。但央行犯错的余地有限，任何信息传递失误都可能给股市带来高昂的代价。</blockquote></p><p> Markets do not expect the Fed to make any sudden or drastic changes to its current easy-money policy. The 10-year Treasury bond’s yield has fallen to 1.51% from 1.64% a month ago, even as inflation has run hotter than expected. The Nasdaq 100, an index of large capitalization and fast-growing technology companies,is up more than 5% in the past month. Growth stocks see a significant valuation booster when long-dated bond yields remain low, as growth companies expect growing profits on a particularly long-term basis. But while&nbsp;investors expect the Fed to soon reduce the size of its bond-buying program, which would raise bond prices and lower their yields, most don’t think the Fed will do so immediately or drastically.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储不会对当前的宽松货币政策做出任何突然或剧烈的改变。尽管通胀高于预期，但10年期国债收益率已从一个月前的1.64%降至1.51%。纳斯达克100指数是大型市值和快速增长的科技公司指数，过去一个月上涨了5%以上。当长期债券收益率保持在低位时，成长型股票的估值会显着提升，因为成长型公司预计利润会在特别长期的基础上增长。不过，尽管投资者预计美联储将很快缩减债券购买计划的规模，这将提高债券价格并降低其收益率，但大多数人认为美联储不会立即或大幅这样做。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s pretty clear that the market expects Fed Chair Powell to strongly reiterate his stances,” writes Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>Wolfe Research首席投资策略师Chris Senyek写道：“很明显，市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将强烈重申他的立场。”</blockquote></p><p> Now, the Fed could stoke a harsh move downwards in tech stocks if it doesn’t choose its words wisely. With the Nasdaq 100 hovering just below a new all-time high set on June 14—accompanied with a 10-year Treasury bond yield that’s well below its 2021 peak of 1.75%—tech stocks are vulnerable to a downward jolt if the Fed misspeaks. Senyek notes that the Fed may indeed be more ready to taper—or reduce the size of its bond-buying program—than some appreciate. He cites the&nbsp;recently hot inflation. To be sure, most market participants see&nbsp;inflation as transitory, a result of a natural year-over-year bounce from low prices during last year’s lockdown. Even so, if the Fed speaks in a way that indicates it will begin tapering before the end of the year—which is the expected timing—stocks could fall sharply.</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果美联储不明智地选择措辞，它可能会引发科技股大幅下跌。由于纳斯达克100指数徘徊在6月14日创下的历史新高以下，加上10年期国债收益率远低于2021年1.75%的峰值，如果美联储说错了，科技股很容易受到下行冲击。森耶克指出，美联储可能确实比一些人想象的更愿意缩减或缩小债券购买计划的规模。他引用了最近火爆的通货膨胀。可以肯定的是，大多数市场参与者认为通胀是暂时的，这是从去年封锁期间的低价自然同比反弹的结果。即便如此，如果美联储的讲话表明将在年底前开始缩减规模——这是预期的时间——股市可能会大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “With both stocks and bonds currently ‘priced for perfection,’ the slightest miscommunication could spark a sharp selloff,” says Senyek, who cites the Nasdsaq 100’s recent rise.</p><p><blockquote>“由于股票和债券目前都‘定价完美’，最轻微的沟通失误都可能引发大幅抛售，”Senyek表示，他引用了Nasdsaq 100指数最近的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Watch to see if the Fed is about to begin tapering, or is merely considering the move in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>观察美联储是否即将开始缩减规模，或者只是考虑在未来几个季度采取行动。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Should Talk About Tapering. Here’s What Could Happen to the Stock Market.<blockquote>美联储应该讨论缩减规模。以下是股市可能发生的情况。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Should Talk About Tapering. Here’s What Could Happen to the Stock Market.<blockquote>美联储应该讨论缩减规模。以下是股市可能发生的情况。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 10:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain supportive of the economy and financial markets. But the central bank has limited margin for error, and any miscues on messaging could be costly to the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>投资者预计美联储将继续支持经济和金融市场。但央行犯错的余地有限，任何信息传递失误都可能给股市带来高昂的代价。</blockquote></p><p> Markets do not expect the Fed to make any sudden or drastic changes to its current easy-money policy. The 10-year Treasury bond’s yield has fallen to 1.51% from 1.64% a month ago, even as inflation has run hotter than expected. The Nasdaq 100, an index of large capitalization and fast-growing technology companies,is up more than 5% in the past month. Growth stocks see a significant valuation booster when long-dated bond yields remain low, as growth companies expect growing profits on a particularly long-term basis. But while&nbsp;investors expect the Fed to soon reduce the size of its bond-buying program, which would raise bond prices and lower their yields, most don’t think the Fed will do so immediately or drastically.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储不会对当前的宽松货币政策做出任何突然或剧烈的改变。尽管通胀高于预期，但10年期国债收益率已从一个月前的1.64%降至1.51%。纳斯达克100指数是大型市值和快速增长的科技公司指数，过去一个月上涨了5%以上。当长期债券收益率保持在低位时，成长型股票的估值会显着提升，因为成长型公司预计利润会在特别长期的基础上增长。不过，尽管投资者预计美联储将很快缩减债券购买计划的规模，这将提高债券价格并降低其收益率，但大多数人认为美联储不会立即或大幅这样做。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s pretty clear that the market expects Fed Chair Powell to strongly reiterate his stances,” writes Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>Wolfe Research首席投资策略师Chris Senyek写道：“很明显，市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将强烈重申他的立场。”</blockquote></p><p> Now, the Fed could stoke a harsh move downwards in tech stocks if it doesn’t choose its words wisely. With the Nasdaq 100 hovering just below a new all-time high set on June 14—accompanied with a 10-year Treasury bond yield that’s well below its 2021 peak of 1.75%—tech stocks are vulnerable to a downward jolt if the Fed misspeaks. Senyek notes that the Fed may indeed be more ready to taper—or reduce the size of its bond-buying program—than some appreciate. He cites the&nbsp;recently hot inflation. To be sure, most market participants see&nbsp;inflation as transitory, a result of a natural year-over-year bounce from low prices during last year’s lockdown. Even so, if the Fed speaks in a way that indicates it will begin tapering before the end of the year—which is the expected timing—stocks could fall sharply.</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果美联储不明智地选择措辞，它可能会引发科技股大幅下跌。由于纳斯达克100指数徘徊在6月14日创下的历史新高以下，加上10年期国债收益率远低于2021年1.75%的峰值，如果美联储说错了，科技股很容易受到下行冲击。森耶克指出，美联储可能确实比一些人想象的更愿意缩减或缩小债券购买计划的规模。他引用了最近火爆的通货膨胀。可以肯定的是，大多数市场参与者认为通胀是暂时的，这是从去年封锁期间的低价自然同比反弹的结果。即便如此，如果美联储的讲话表明将在年底前开始缩减规模——这是预期的时间——股市可能会大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “With both stocks and bonds currently ‘priced for perfection,’ the slightest miscommunication could spark a sharp selloff,” says Senyek, who cites the Nasdsaq 100’s recent rise.</p><p><blockquote>“由于股票和债券目前都‘定价完美’，最轻微的沟通失误都可能引发大幅抛售，”Senyek表示，他引用了Nasdsaq 100指数最近的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Watch to see if the Fed is about to begin tapering, or is merely considering the move in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>观察美联储是否即将开始缩减规模，或者只是考虑在未来几个季度采取行动。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-tapering-stock-market-51623777984?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-tapering-stock-market-51623777984?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185142374","content_text":"Investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain supportive of the economy and financial markets. But the central bank has limited margin for error, and any miscues on messaging could be costly to the stock market.\nMarkets do not expect the Fed to make any sudden or drastic changes to its current easy-money policy. The 10-year Treasury bond’s yield has fallen to 1.51% from 1.64% a month ago, even as inflation has run hotter than expected. The Nasdaq 100, an index of large capitalization and fast-growing technology companies,is up more than 5% in the past month. Growth stocks see a significant valuation booster when long-dated bond yields remain low, as growth companies expect growing profits on a particularly long-term basis. But while investors expect the Fed to soon reduce the size of its bond-buying program, which would raise bond prices and lower their yields, most don’t think the Fed will do so immediately or drastically.\n“It’s pretty clear that the market expects Fed Chair Powell to strongly reiterate his stances,” writes Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research.\nNow, the Fed could stoke a harsh move downwards in tech stocks if it doesn’t choose its words wisely. With the Nasdaq 100 hovering just below a new all-time high set on June 14—accompanied with a 10-year Treasury bond yield that’s well below its 2021 peak of 1.75%—tech stocks are vulnerable to a downward jolt if the Fed misspeaks. Senyek notes that the Fed may indeed be more ready to taper—or reduce the size of its bond-buying program—than some appreciate. He cites the recently hot inflation. To be sure, most market participants see inflation as transitory, a result of a natural year-over-year bounce from low prices during last year’s lockdown. Even so, if the Fed speaks in a way that indicates it will begin tapering before the end of the year—which is the expected timing—stocks could fall sharply.\n“With both stocks and bonds currently ‘priced for perfection,’ the slightest miscommunication could spark a sharp selloff,” says Senyek, who cites the Nasdsaq 100’s recent rise.\nWatch to see if the Fed is about to begin tapering, or is merely considering the move in the coming quarters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}