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  ·2021-06-24
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  The Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues<blockquote>美联储通胀豪赌仍在继续</blockquote>
  The fed's inflation gamble continues... Are central banks trapped? Last week’s Fed statement and the
  The Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues<blockquote>美联储通胀豪赌仍在继续</blockquote>
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Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128569004","repostId":"1159732624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159732624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624523072,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159732624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 16:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues<blockquote>美联储通胀豪赌仍在继续</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159732624","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The fed's inflation gamble continues...\nAre central banks trapped?\nLast week’s Fed statement and the","content":"<p>The fed's inflation gamble continues...</p><p><blockquote>美联储的通胀豪赌仍在继续……</blockquote></p><p> Are central banks trapped?</p><p><blockquote>央行被困住了吗？</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.</p><p><blockquote>上周美联储的声明和随后的新闻发布会被证明是金价下跌90美元（4.8%）的开始。</blockquote></p><p> The fed's inflation gamble continues...</p><p><blockquote>美联储的通胀豪赌仍在继续……</blockquote></p><p> Are central banks trapped?</p><p><blockquote>央行被困住了吗？</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.</p><p><blockquote>上周美联储的声明和随后的新闻发布会被证明是金价下跌90美元（4.8%）的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f6f4d07713bdee7bee47adab746e65\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"576\"><i>Gold Price Daily Chart</i></p><p><blockquote><i>金价日线图</i></blockquote></p><p> Fed on Economic Recovery</p><p><blockquote>美联储谈经济复苏</blockquote></p><p> The Summary of Economic Projections (known as the dot-plots) released with the statement showed that committee members changed their median projection for the Fed Funds rate from its current rate of 0.1% to 0.6% by 2023 year-end – an increase of 0.5% or two rate increases more than two years from now.</p><p><blockquote>与声明一起发布的经济预测摘要（称为点阵图）显示，委员会成员将联邦基金利率的预测中值从目前的0.1%更改为2023年底的0.6%，增幅为0.5%或两年多后两次加息。</blockquote></p><p> And these forecasted rate increases will only happen if inflation is well anchored above the 2% target and the Fed feels it has met its maximum employment part of the mandate. In response to a question in the press conference Chair Powell said:</p><p><blockquote>只有当通胀稳定在2%的目标之上并且美联储认为它已经达到了最大就业部分的任务时，这些预测的加息才会发生。鲍威尔主席在记者招待会上回答提问时说：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… the main message I would take away from the SEP is that many [FOMC] participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions in the Committee's forward guidance will be met somewhat sooner than previously anticipated [i.e., labor market conditions consistent with maximum employment, inflation at 2 percent and on track to exceed 2 percent]. And that [is] a welcome development. If such outcomes materialize, it means the economy will have made faster progress toward our goals.</i>    <i> …… the other thing I'll say is</i>  <i><b>rate increases are really not at all the focus of the Committee.</b></i>  <i>The focus of the Committee is the current state of the economy. …</i>  <i><b>we're [still] very far from maximum employment,</b></i>  <i>for example. …</i>  <i><b>the near-term discussion that will begin is about the path of asset purchases</b></i>  <i>… we [discussed] that today, and expect to continue in future meetings to think about our progress … Lift-off [a hike in the FF-rate] is well into the future …</i>  The Fed has reason to be optimistic about the economy, as economic data, both anecdotal and official data releases have been stronger than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>……我从SEP中得到的主要信息是，许多[FOMC]参与者更放心地认为，委员会前瞻性指引中的经济状况将比之前预期的更快得到满足[即劳动力市场状况与最大就业一致，通胀率为2%，并有望超过2%]。这是一个受欢迎的发展。如果这样的结果成为现实，这意味着经济将朝着我们的目标取得更快的进展。</i><i>……我要说的另一件事是</i><i><b>加息实际上根本不是委员会的重点。</b></i><i>委员会的重点是当前的经济状况……</i><i><b>我们离就业最大化还很远，</b></i><i>比如……</i><i><b>近期将开始的讨论是关于资产购买的路径</b></i><i>……我们今天讨论过这一点，并期待着在今后的会议上继续考虑我们的进展……升迁【FF利率的上升】很早就进入了未来……</i>美联储有理由对经济持乐观态度，因为经济数据，无论是传闻数据还是官方数据发布都强于预期。</blockquote></p><p> The housing market in many parts of the country is red hot, employers are scrambling to find workers, retail sales have been strong, and inflation, even taking out the drop from last year has been somewhat elevated.</p><p><blockquote>美国许多地区的房地产市场非常火爆，雇主们都在争先恐后地寻找工人，零售销售强劲，通货膨胀率，即使扣除去年的下降，也有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> And remember the Fed is adding US$80 billion in US Treasuries, and US$40 billion in mortgage-backed securities to its balance sheet each month – that’s $120 billion in extra liquidity flowing straight into already drunk markets.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，美联储每月在其资产负债表上增加800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券——这意味着1200亿美元的额外流动性直接流入已经喝醉的市场。</blockquote></p><p> Assets on the Fed’s balance sheet hit over US$8 trillion last week – that is 36% of US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表上的资产上周超过8万亿美元，占美国GDP的36%。</blockquote></p><p> So here is the trap – not only did gold prices decline by almost 5% last week, but interest rates shot up and the US dollar gained strength – all on the Fed<i>talking about tapering</i>and a forecast of a possible increase more than two years from now. Back to Powell’s press conference for his comments on tapering:</p><p><blockquote>所以陷阱就在这里——上周不仅金价下跌了近5%，而且利率飙升，美元走强——这一切都归咎于美联储<i>谈渐缩</i>并预测两年多后可能会增加。回到鲍威尔在新闻发布会上对tapering的评论：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… [As to when we might consider starting to reduce our asset purchases] you can think of this meeting that we had as</i>  <i><b>the talking about [tapering] meeting</b></i>  <i>…</i>    <i>… We don't think that we're in a situation [where we need to raise rates to control inflation]. We think that</i>  <i><b>the economy is recovering from a deep hole</b></i>  <i>, an unusual hole actually, because it's to do with shutting down the economy. It turns out it's a heck of a lot easier to create demand than it is to bring supply back up to snuff …</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec4fa685f7c5899a9b342d3532c07720\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"574\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e18dc5c6c4033c23e38c134098332cb\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"578\"></p><p><blockquote><i>……[关于我们何时可能考虑开始减少资产购买]你可以把我们召开的这次会议看作</i><i><b>谈论[缩减]会议</b></i><i>…</i><i>……我们不认为我们处于[需要加息来控制通胀]的境地。我们认为</i><i><b>经济正在从深渊中复苏</b></i><i>事实上，这是一个不寻常的漏洞，因为它与关闭经济有关。事实证明，创造需求比让供应恢复正常要容易得多……</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart</i></p><p><blockquote><i>美元指数(DXY)图表</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Threat of soaring debts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务飙升的威胁</b></blockquote></p><p> If the market reaction is this strong when the Fed only starts mentioning that it is talking about a plan to cut back on asset purchases. Moreover, that there might be an eventual interest rate increase more than two years from now. How do they actually get a plan implemented that doesn’t send the US economy into a downturn?</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储刚开始提及正在讨论削减资产购买计划时，市场反应就如此强烈。此外，两年多后最终可能会加息。他们如何真正实施一项不会让美国经济陷入衰退的计划？</blockquote></p><p> The US government added more than US$5 trillion in debt since the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic in March of 2020. Also, the baseline projection from the Congressional Budget Office is that the US federal budget deficit will average US$1.2 trillion per year over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来，美国政府增加了超过5万亿美元的债务。此外，国会预算办公室的基线预测是，未来十年美国联邦预算赤字平均每年将达到1.2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That’s right this is the baseline projection! It does not include any extra spending that the Biden Administration and Congress may pass (such as the currently debated infrastructure bill). US debt is now more than 100% of GDP. For every 1 percent increase in interest rates, more of the US government revenues are sucked up servicing its debt, which leaves less for other programs, which no politicians want!</p><p><blockquote>没错，这是基线投影！它不包括拜登政府和国会可能通过的任何额外支出（如目前正在争论的基建法案）。美国债务现在超过GDP的100%。利率每上升1%，就有更多的美国政府收入被用来偿还债务，留给其他项目的收入更少，这是任何政治家都不想要的！</blockquote></p><p> And if the US leads the way with interest rate increases this puts more upward pressure on the US dollar. Which is good for US consumers of imported goods, but not good for US exporting companies or their employees.</p><p><blockquote>如果美国率先加息，这将给美元带来更大的上行压力。这对进口商品的美国消费者有利，但对美国出口公司或其员工不利。</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line is that the Fed is going to stay behind the inflation curve and lower for longer is still the motto of the day. Higher inflation, low real-rates, and a lower dollar are all good for gold in the long-run!</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，美联储将落后于通胀曲线，并且在更长时间内保持较低水平仍然是当今的座右铭。从长远来看，通胀上升、实际利率下降和美元走低都对黄金有利！</blockquote></p><p> We turn back to Chair Powell’s comments in the press conference for the last word:</p><p><blockquote>我们回到鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上的评论，了解最后一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… the last thing to say is, the</i>  <i><b>dots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves.</b></i>  <i>And that's because it's so highly uncertain …</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>……最后要说的是，</i><i><b>dots并不能很好地预测未来利率变动。</b></i><i>这是因为它非常不确定……</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues<blockquote>美联储通胀豪赌仍在继续</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues<blockquote>美联储通胀豪赌仍在继续</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 16:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The fed's inflation gamble continues...</p><p><blockquote>美联储的通胀豪赌仍在继续……</blockquote></p><p> Are central banks trapped?</p><p><blockquote>央行被困住了吗？</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.</p><p><blockquote>上周美联储的声明和随后的新闻发布会被证明是金价下跌90美元（4.8%）的开始。</blockquote></p><p> The fed's inflation gamble continues...</p><p><blockquote>美联储的通胀豪赌仍在继续……</blockquote></p><p> Are central banks trapped?</p><p><blockquote>央行被困住了吗？</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.</p><p><blockquote>上周美联储的声明和随后的新闻发布会被证明是金价下跌90美元（4.8%）的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f6f4d07713bdee7bee47adab746e65\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"576\"><i>Gold Price Daily Chart</i></p><p><blockquote><i>金价日线图</i></blockquote></p><p> Fed on Economic Recovery</p><p><blockquote>美联储谈经济复苏</blockquote></p><p> The Summary of Economic Projections (known as the dot-plots) released with the statement showed that committee members changed their median projection for the Fed Funds rate from its current rate of 0.1% to 0.6% by 2023 year-end – an increase of 0.5% or two rate increases more than two years from now.</p><p><blockquote>与声明一起发布的经济预测摘要（称为点阵图）显示，委员会成员将联邦基金利率的预测中值从目前的0.1%更改为2023年底的0.6%，增幅为0.5%或两年多后两次加息。</blockquote></p><p> And these forecasted rate increases will only happen if inflation is well anchored above the 2% target and the Fed feels it has met its maximum employment part of the mandate. In response to a question in the press conference Chair Powell said:</p><p><blockquote>只有当通胀稳定在2%的目标之上并且美联储认为它已经达到了最大就业部分的任务时，这些预测的加息才会发生。鲍威尔主席在记者招待会上回答提问时说：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… the main message I would take away from the SEP is that many [FOMC] participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions in the Committee's forward guidance will be met somewhat sooner than previously anticipated [i.e., labor market conditions consistent with maximum employment, inflation at 2 percent and on track to exceed 2 percent]. And that [is] a welcome development. If such outcomes materialize, it means the economy will have made faster progress toward our goals.</i>    <i> …… the other thing I'll say is</i>  <i><b>rate increases are really not at all the focus of the Committee.</b></i>  <i>The focus of the Committee is the current state of the economy. …</i>  <i><b>we're [still] very far from maximum employment,</b></i>  <i>for example. …</i>  <i><b>the near-term discussion that will begin is about the path of asset purchases</b></i>  <i>… we [discussed] that today, and expect to continue in future meetings to think about our progress … Lift-off [a hike in the FF-rate] is well into the future …</i>  The Fed has reason to be optimistic about the economy, as economic data, both anecdotal and official data releases have been stronger than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>……我从SEP中得到的主要信息是，许多[FOMC]参与者更放心地认为，委员会前瞻性指引中的经济状况将比之前预期的更快得到满足[即劳动力市场状况与最大就业一致，通胀率为2%，并有望超过2%]。这是一个受欢迎的发展。如果这样的结果成为现实，这意味着经济将朝着我们的目标取得更快的进展。</i><i>……我要说的另一件事是</i><i><b>加息实际上根本不是委员会的重点。</b></i><i>委员会的重点是当前的经济状况……</i><i><b>我们离就业最大化还很远，</b></i><i>比如……</i><i><b>近期将开始的讨论是关于资产购买的路径</b></i><i>……我们今天讨论过这一点，并期待着在今后的会议上继续考虑我们的进展……升迁【FF利率的上升】很早就进入了未来……</i>美联储有理由对经济持乐观态度，因为经济数据，无论是传闻数据还是官方数据发布都强于预期。</blockquote></p><p> The housing market in many parts of the country is red hot, employers are scrambling to find workers, retail sales have been strong, and inflation, even taking out the drop from last year has been somewhat elevated.</p><p><blockquote>美国许多地区的房地产市场非常火爆，雇主们都在争先恐后地寻找工人，零售销售强劲，通货膨胀率，即使扣除去年的下降，也有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> And remember the Fed is adding US$80 billion in US Treasuries, and US$40 billion in mortgage-backed securities to its balance sheet each month – that’s $120 billion in extra liquidity flowing straight into already drunk markets.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，美联储每月在其资产负债表上增加800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券——这意味着1200亿美元的额外流动性直接流入已经喝醉的市场。</blockquote></p><p> Assets on the Fed’s balance sheet hit over US$8 trillion last week – that is 36% of US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表上的资产上周超过8万亿美元，占美国GDP的36%。</blockquote></p><p> So here is the trap – not only did gold prices decline by almost 5% last week, but interest rates shot up and the US dollar gained strength – all on the Fed<i>talking about tapering</i>and a forecast of a possible increase more than two years from now. Back to Powell’s press conference for his comments on tapering:</p><p><blockquote>所以陷阱就在这里——上周不仅金价下跌了近5%，而且利率飙升，美元走强——这一切都归咎于美联储<i>谈渐缩</i>并预测两年多后可能会增加。回到鲍威尔在新闻发布会上对tapering的评论：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… [As to when we might consider starting to reduce our asset purchases] you can think of this meeting that we had as</i>  <i><b>the talking about [tapering] meeting</b></i>  <i>…</i>    <i>… We don't think that we're in a situation [where we need to raise rates to control inflation]. We think that</i>  <i><b>the economy is recovering from a deep hole</b></i>  <i>, an unusual hole actually, because it's to do with shutting down the economy. It turns out it's a heck of a lot easier to create demand than it is to bring supply back up to snuff …</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec4fa685f7c5899a9b342d3532c07720\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"574\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e18dc5c6c4033c23e38c134098332cb\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"578\"></p><p><blockquote><i>……[关于我们何时可能考虑开始减少资产购买]你可以把我们召开的这次会议看作</i><i><b>谈论[缩减]会议</b></i><i>…</i><i>……我们不认为我们处于[需要加息来控制通胀]的境地。我们认为</i><i><b>经济正在从深渊中复苏</b></i><i>事实上，这是一个不寻常的漏洞，因为它与关闭经济有关。事实证明，创造需求比让供应恢复正常要容易得多……</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart</i></p><p><blockquote><i>美元指数(DXY)图表</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Threat of soaring debts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务飙升的威胁</b></blockquote></p><p> If the market reaction is this strong when the Fed only starts mentioning that it is talking about a plan to cut back on asset purchases. Moreover, that there might be an eventual interest rate increase more than two years from now. How do they actually get a plan implemented that doesn’t send the US economy into a downturn?</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储刚开始提及正在讨论削减资产购买计划时，市场反应就如此强烈。此外，两年多后最终可能会加息。他们如何真正实施一项不会让美国经济陷入衰退的计划？</blockquote></p><p> The US government added more than US$5 trillion in debt since the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic in March of 2020. Also, the baseline projection from the Congressional Budget Office is that the US federal budget deficit will average US$1.2 trillion per year over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来，美国政府增加了超过5万亿美元的债务。此外，国会预算办公室的基线预测是，未来十年美国联邦预算赤字平均每年将达到1.2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That’s right this is the baseline projection! It does not include any extra spending that the Biden Administration and Congress may pass (such as the currently debated infrastructure bill). US debt is now more than 100% of GDP. For every 1 percent increase in interest rates, more of the US government revenues are sucked up servicing its debt, which leaves less for other programs, which no politicians want!</p><p><blockquote>没错，这是基线投影！它不包括拜登政府和国会可能通过的任何额外支出（如目前正在争论的基建法案）。美国债务现在超过GDP的100%。利率每上升1%，就有更多的美国政府收入被用来偿还债务，留给其他项目的收入更少，这是任何政治家都不想要的！</blockquote></p><p> And if the US leads the way with interest rate increases this puts more upward pressure on the US dollar. Which is good for US consumers of imported goods, but not good for US exporting companies or their employees.</p><p><blockquote>如果美国率先加息，这将给美元带来更大的上行压力。这对进口商品的美国消费者有利，但对美国出口公司或其员工不利。</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line is that the Fed is going to stay behind the inflation curve and lower for longer is still the motto of the day. Higher inflation, low real-rates, and a lower dollar are all good for gold in the long-run!</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，美联储将落后于通胀曲线，并且在更长时间内保持较低水平仍然是当今的座右铭。从长远来看，通胀上升、实际利率下降和美元走低都对黄金有利！</blockquote></p><p> We turn back to Chair Powell’s comments in the press conference for the last word:</p><p><blockquote>我们回到鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上的评论，了解最后一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… the last thing to say is, the</i>  <i><b>dots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves.</b></i>  <i>And that's because it's so highly uncertain …</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>……最后要说的是，</i><i><b>dots并不能很好地预测未来利率变动。</b></i><i>这是因为它非常不确定……</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-06-23/feds-inflation-gamble-continues\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-06-23/feds-inflation-gamble-continues","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159732624","content_text":"The fed's inflation gamble continues...\nAre central banks trapped?\nLast week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.\nThe fed's inflation gamble continues...\nAre central banks trapped?\nLast week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.\nGold Price Daily Chart\nFed on Economic Recovery\nThe Summary of Economic Projections (known as the dot-plots) released with the statement showed that committee members changed their median projection for the Fed Funds rate from its current rate of 0.1% to 0.6% by 2023 year-end – an increase of 0.5% or two rate increases more than two years from now.\nAnd these forecasted rate increases will only happen if inflation is well anchored above the 2% target and the Fed feels it has met its maximum employment part of the mandate. In response to a question in the press conference Chair Powell said:\n\n… the main message I would take away from the SEP is that many [FOMC] participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions in the Committee's forward guidance will be met somewhat sooner than previously anticipated [i.e., labor market conditions consistent with maximum employment, inflation at 2 percent and on track to exceed 2 percent]. And that [is] a welcome development. If such outcomes materialize, it means the economy will have made faster progress toward our goals.\n\n\n …… the other thing I'll say is\nrate increases are really not at all the focus of the Committee.\nThe focus of the Committee is the current state of the economy. …\nwe're [still] very far from maximum employment,\nfor example. …\nthe near-term discussion that will begin is about the path of asset purchases\n… we [discussed] that today, and expect to continue in future meetings to think about our progress … Lift-off [a hike in the FF-rate] is well into the future …\n\nThe Fed has reason to be optimistic about the economy, as economic data, both anecdotal and official data releases have been stronger than expected.\nThe housing market in many parts of the country is red hot, employers are scrambling to find workers, retail sales have been strong, and inflation, even taking out the drop from last year has been somewhat elevated.\nAnd remember the Fed is adding US$80 billion in US Treasuries, and US$40 billion in mortgage-backed securities to its balance sheet each month – that’s $120 billion in extra liquidity flowing straight into already drunk markets.\nAssets on the Fed’s balance sheet hit over US$8 trillion last week – that is 36% of US GDP.\nSo here is the trap – not only did gold prices decline by almost 5% last week, but interest rates shot up and the US dollar gained strength – all on the Fedtalking about taperingand a forecast of a possible increase more than two years from now. Back to Powell’s press conference for his comments on tapering:\n\n… [As to when we might consider starting to reduce our asset purchases] you can think of this meeting that we had as\nthe talking about [tapering] meeting\n…\n\n\n… We don't think that we're in a situation [where we need to raise rates to control inflation]. We think that\nthe economy is recovering from a deep hole\n, an unusual hole actually, because it's to do with shutting down the economy. It turns out it's a heck of a lot easier to create demand than it is to bring supply back up to snuff …\n\n\nUS Dollar Index (DXY) Chart\nThreat of soaring debts\nIf the market reaction is this strong when the Fed only starts mentioning that it is talking about a plan to cut back on asset purchases. Moreover, that there might be an eventual interest rate increase more than two years from now. How do they actually get a plan implemented that doesn’t send the US economy into a downturn?\nThe US government added more than US$5 trillion in debt since the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic in March of 2020. Also, the baseline projection from the Congressional Budget Office is that the US federal budget deficit will average US$1.2 trillion per year over the next decade.\nThat’s right this is the baseline projection! It does not include any extra spending that the Biden Administration and Congress may pass (such as the currently debated infrastructure bill). US debt is now more than 100% of GDP. For every 1 percent increase in interest rates, more of the US government revenues are sucked up servicing its debt, which leaves less for other programs, which no politicians want!\nAnd if the US leads the way with interest rate increases this puts more upward pressure on the US dollar. Which is good for US consumers of imported goods, but not good for US exporting companies or their employees.\nBottom line is that the Fed is going to stay behind the inflation curve and lower for longer is still the motto of the day. Higher inflation, low real-rates, and a lower dollar are all good for gold in the long-run!\nWe turn back to Chair Powell’s comments in the press conference for the last word:\n\n… the last thing to say is, the\ndots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves.\nAnd that's because it's so highly uncertain …","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}