个人中心 - 老虎社区

Philip67

IP属地：未知

帖子 · 39帖子 · 39
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- Philip67Philip67
  ·2021-12-24
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,453 评论
  4
  分享
  举报
- Philip67Philip67
  ·2021-12-22
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,332 1
  1
  分享
  举报
- Philip67Philip67
  ·2021-12-21
  👍
  Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>
  Summary Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good
  Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>
  2,897 评论
  3
  分享
  举报
- Philip67Philip67
  ·2021-12-04
  👍
  Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3%<blockquote>Sea Ltd股价下跌6%，Grab上涨近3%</blockquote>
  Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3% in morning trading.
  Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3%<blockquote>Sea Ltd股价下跌6%，Grab上涨近3%</blockquote>
  3,288 评论
  3
  分享
  举报
- Philip67Philip67
  ·2021-11-30
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,043 评论
  3
  分享
  举报
- Philip67Philip67
  ·2021-11-23
  👍
  Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>
  Summary Rivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap. Howev
  Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>
  2,952 评论
  4
  分享
  举报
- Philip67Philip67
  ·2021-11-21
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,743 2
  5
  分享
  举报
- Philip67Philip67
  ·2021-11-18
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,728 评论
  2
  分享
  举报
- Philip67Philip67
  ·2021-11-18
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,438 评论
  4
  分享
  举报
- Philip67Philip67
  ·2021-11-18
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,561 评论
  4
  分享
  举报

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"4091157554167160","uuid":"4091157554167160","gmtCreate":1628054490254,"gmtModify":1634292553841,"name":"Philip67","pinyin":"philip67","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":22,"headSize":194,"tweetSize":39,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.09.25","exceedPercentage":"80.62%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.12.19","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.11.12","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":698350433,"gmtCreate":1640308884742,"gmtModify":1640308888174,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698350433","repostId":"2193078140","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691137693,"gmtCreate":1640146453373,"gmtModify":1640146453635,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691137693","repostId":"1175963832","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693780402,"gmtCreate":1640079686238,"gmtModify":1640079686619,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693780402","repostId":"1117226796","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117226796","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640057164,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117226796?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117226796","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li>  <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li>  <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies是一只战场股票。听空头的论点对多头来说是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但PLTR对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资，这要归功于强大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信Palantir Technologies是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年带来巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一只成长型股票，可以带来高度确信的多头和高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨阵营，但看看看跌的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东稀释</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司的增长很重要，但每股的增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或破坏大量股东价值。例如，苹果(AAPL)的净利润在过去十年中增长了约190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量下降，其每股收益增长了更具吸引力的350%——回购创造了大量股东价值。也有股票数量增加破坏了大量股东价值的例子，例如花旗集团（C）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>自2007年以来，大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致每股收益下降75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，关注公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为从长远来看，这些变化可能会产生很大的影响。在Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。最近一个季度，Palantir的股票数量如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was&nbsp;1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir的平均股票数量为18.95亿股，季度增长3.5%，年增长率在十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不可忽视，当他们说股东以有意义的速度被稀释时，就值得争论。另一方面，Palantir的业务增长率远高于每季度3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为40%，而且Palantir也应该在未来几年实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释度将会下降。这不仅适用于许多其他成长型公司，例如亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB），但从期权回报的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司成熟，随着公司风险的下降，员工会变得更加舒适，他们不再要求大笔期权套餐。最后但并非最不重要的是，Palantir还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这应该使该公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也应该有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.对政府合同的依赖</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish&nbsp;article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近的一篇看跌文章中，The Pulse的Seeking Alpha撰稿人认为Palantir被高估，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。Palantir Technologies如今确实在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于商业业务的大幅增长，Palantir最近实现了多元化，摆脱了政府合同：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir技术演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各个行业的商业客户显然看到了Palantir技术的巨大价值——否则，他们不会购买Palantir技术。速度很快。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，Palantir将在多年后成为一家越来越不依赖政府合同的公司，并最终成为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使Palantir永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这也不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳定地增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域非常需要进一步投资。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据Palantir最新的季度报告（上面链接），2020年第三季度至2021年第三季度期间，其运营费用增加了900万美元，而同期收入增加了1.03亿美元。这抵消了股权激励的变化。如果将这些SBC费用包括在内，Palantir的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>而该公司的收入同比增长了近40%。因此，我认为Palantir多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明Palantir将能够大幅提高其利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长9000万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长900万美元——从而实现出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在2022年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长较低或没有增长且在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润在遥远未来的公司更容易面临贴现率上升的风险。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股优于成长股。Palantir尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我认为，这里没有真正的反驳——确实，在其他条件相同的情况下，利率上升对Palantir的影响将比艾伯维(ABBV)等价值股更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对Palantir来说是一个增量负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免股票。事实上，即使利率上升带来了一些潜在的阻力，如果其他论点具有更大的权重，Palantir仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我认为PLTR巨大的增长潜力和巨大的护城河超过了近期的一些阻力来自利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么Palantir仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>看空者提出了一系列反对Palantir的论点，如上所示，这些论点可能有其优点。我相信在某些情况下他们可能被夸大了，但看看空头的论点并没有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是太大的阻力，因为PLTR的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在几年内放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将会随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased&nbsp;Foundry&nbsp;for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an&nbsp;excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些论点，我相信Palantir仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且Palantir似乎拥有非常宽的护城河。这种合并最终可能会将Palantir变成最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况会在短期内发生。相反，我相信Palantir很有可能在整个2020年代及以后以相当大的速度增长，因为我们的世界变得越来越需要数据——政府和企业都将努力获得最大的价值从所有这些数据中获得，Palantir将凭借其量身定制的解决方案，为其客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的Foundry for Crypto等新工具，Palantir处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于Palantir能够接触到顶尖人才——SBC的结果和良好的工作环境——我相信Palantir很有可能能够在未来的各种市场中具有高度竞争力。大数据/人工智能领域可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir在我的投资组合中有点异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的组合，Palantir对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信Palantir很有可能在未来10多年成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。PLTR明年收入的19倍并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说一点也不奇怪。听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li>  <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li>  <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies是一只战场股票。听空头的论点对多头来说是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但PLTR对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资，这要归功于强大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信Palantir Technologies是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年带来巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一只成长型股票，可以带来高度确信的多头和高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨阵营，但看看看跌的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东稀释</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司的增长很重要，但每股的增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或破坏大量股东价值。例如，苹果(AAPL)的净利润在过去十年中增长了约190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量下降，其每股收益增长了更具吸引力的350%——回购创造了大量股东价值。也有股票数量增加破坏了大量股东价值的例子，例如花旗集团（C）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>自2007年以来，大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致每股收益下降75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，关注公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为从长远来看，这些变化可能会产生很大的影响。在Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。最近一个季度，Palantir的股票数量如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was&nbsp;1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir的平均股票数量为18.95亿股，季度增长3.5%，年增长率在十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不可忽视，当他们说股东以有意义的速度被稀释时，就值得争论。另一方面，Palantir的业务增长率远高于每季度3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为40%，而且Palantir也应该在未来几年实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释度将会下降。这不仅适用于许多其他成长型公司，例如亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB），但从期权回报的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司成熟，随着公司风险的下降，员工会变得更加舒适，他们不再要求大笔期权套餐。最后但并非最不重要的是，Palantir还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这应该使该公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也应该有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.对政府合同的依赖</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish&nbsp;article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近的一篇看跌文章中，The Pulse的Seeking Alpha撰稿人认为Palantir被高估，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。Palantir Technologies如今确实在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于商业业务的大幅增长，Palantir最近实现了多元化，摆脱了政府合同：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir技术演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各个行业的商业客户显然看到了Palantir技术的巨大价值——否则，他们不会购买Palantir技术。速度很快。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，Palantir将在多年后成为一家越来越不依赖政府合同的公司，并最终成为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使Palantir永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这也不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳定地增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域非常需要进一步投资。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据Palantir最新的季度报告（上面链接），2020年第三季度至2021年第三季度期间，其运营费用增加了900万美元，而同期收入增加了1.03亿美元。这抵消了股权激励的变化。如果将这些SBC费用包括在内，Palantir的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>而该公司的收入同比增长了近40%。因此，我认为Palantir多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明Palantir将能够大幅提高其利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长9000万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长900万美元——从而实现出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在2022年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长较低或没有增长且在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润在遥远未来的公司更容易面临贴现率上升的风险。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股优于成长股。Palantir尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我认为，这里没有真正的反驳——确实，在其他条件相同的情况下，利率上升对Palantir的影响将比艾伯维(ABBV)等价值股更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对Palantir来说是一个增量负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免股票。事实上，即使利率上升带来了一些潜在的阻力，如果其他论点具有更大的权重，Palantir仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我认为PLTR巨大的增长潜力和巨大的护城河超过了近期的一些阻力来自利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么Palantir仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>看空者提出了一系列反对Palantir的论点，如上所示，这些论点可能有其优点。我相信在某些情况下他们可能被夸大了，但看看空头的论点并没有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是太大的阻力，因为PLTR的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在几年内放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将会随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased&nbsp;Foundry&nbsp;for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an&nbsp;excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些论点，我相信Palantir仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且Palantir似乎拥有非常宽的护城河。这种合并最终可能会将Palantir变成最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况会在短期内发生。相反，我相信Palantir很有可能在整个2020年代及以后以相当大的速度增长，因为我们的世界变得越来越需要数据——政府和企业都将努力获得最大的价值从所有这些数据中获得，Palantir将凭借其量身定制的解决方案，为其客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的Foundry for Crypto等新工具，Palantir处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于Palantir能够接触到顶尖人才——SBC的结果和良好的工作环境——我相信Palantir很有可能能够在未来的各种市场中具有高度竞争力。大数据/人工智能领域可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir在我的投资组合中有点异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的组合，Palantir对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信Palantir很有可能在未来10多年成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。PLTR明年收入的19倍并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说一点也不奇怪。听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117226796","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.\nPLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.\nDespite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.\n\nspxChrome/E+ via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.\n3 Issues Brought Up By Bears\nPalantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:\n1. Shareholder Dilution\nGrowth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:\nData by YCharts\nThanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):\nData by YCharts\nMassive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:\nSource: Palantir Press Release\nCompared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.\n2. Reliance on government contracts\nIn a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:\nSource: Palantir Technologies presentation\nIn fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With\nWith the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.\nThe claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actuallydeclinedyear-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.\n3. Exposure to rising rates\nMassive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.\nThis being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.\nWhy Palantir Is Still Attractive\nBears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.\nPalantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.\nTakeaway\nIn general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608048711,"gmtCreate":1638585938822,"gmtModify":1638585939086,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608048711","repostId":"1135581145","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135581145","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638544438,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135581145?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3%<blockquote>Sea Ltd股价下跌6%，Grab上涨近3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135581145","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3% in morning trading.","content":"<p>Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Ltd股价在早盘交易中下跌6%，而Grab则上涨近3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6e1cc599c71ab4b3f021f3f08854e7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad938b19362172c4e42e41557bb259b3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3%<blockquote>Sea Ltd股价下跌6%，Grab上涨近3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3%<blockquote>Sea Ltd股价下跌6%，Grab上涨近3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-03 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Ltd股价在早盘交易中下跌6%，而Grab则上涨近3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6e1cc599c71ab4b3f021f3f08854e7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad938b19362172c4e42e41557bb259b3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings","SE":"Sea Ltd"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135581145","content_text":"Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3% in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9,"GRAB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609155917,"gmtCreate":1638256408699,"gmtModify":1638256408806,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609155917","repostId":"2187306343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875606148,"gmtCreate":1637637985309,"gmtModify":1637637985399,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875606148","repostId":"1144695405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144695405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637637065,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144695405?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144695405","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nRivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.\nHowev","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Rivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.</li>  <li>However, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.</li>  <li>Thanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d065787049af8b17ea35806fbb51971\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian的首次公开募股取得了巨大成功，之后市值达到了1090亿美元。</li><li>然而，该公司受到了一系列负面报道的打击，包括福特退出与其合作伙伴关系。</li><li>由于其高估值，Rivian开始看起来像Pets.com——2000年互联网泡沫破裂的典型代表。</li><li>在本文中，我将对Rivian提出看跌论点，认为其目前的价格水平仍然过高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Rivian</b>(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>(F) announced that it had&nbsp;scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture&nbsp;with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(AMZN) had less range than advertised.</p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian</b>(RIVN)股东上周收到了一些坏消息，当时<b>福特</b>(F)宣布取消与该公司成立合资企业的计划。这一消息是在一份报告称Rivian的电动货车专为<b>亚马逊</b>（AMZN）的范围比宣传的要小。</blockquote></p><p> Following the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.</p><p><blockquote>公告发布后，福特保留了RIVN 12%的股权。但它的行为让人对未来的任何合作产生了怀疑。从现在开始，福特将只是一家拥有RIVN股票的公司。未来不会有有利可图的合作。</blockquote></p><p> With last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.</p><p><blockquote>随着上周的消息，Rivian最大的两个投资者Amazon和Ford给该公司带来了双重打击。甚至在福特消息下跌之前，投资者就已经在抛售Rivian了。在IPO后上涨后，RIVN下跌25%，从172美元跌至128.60美元。有关该公司没有收入的报道可能是导致上市几天后遭遇抛售的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the&nbsp;NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>在许多方面，Rivian已经成为一些人所说的“新科技泡沫”的典型代表。随着纳斯达克股市似乎每天都创下新高，我们开始看到价格走势让人想起2000年初，当时纳斯达克的市盈率达到175。当泡沫最终破裂时，科技股下跌了80%。纳斯达克花了15年时间才恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> The most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2000年代所有泡沫股票中最臭名昭著的是Pets.com。与Rivian一样，它吸引了亚马逊等大型科技公司的投资。IPET 1998年首次公开募股筹集了8250万美元，其股价首次亮相时为11美元。在它最强大的时候，它在梅西节游行中放了一个气球。但由于商业模式无利可图，该公司迅速亏损。该公司最终破产，到2000年底，股价为每股0.06美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find&nbsp;semi stocks,social media stocks, and even&nbsp;blue chip SaaS stocks&nbsp;above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space&nbsp;sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!</p><p><blockquote>虽然纳斯达克远未接近2000年的高估水平，但一些个股正在接近这一水平。我们可以找到销售额超过20倍的semi股票、社交媒体股票，甚至蓝筹SaaS股票。电动汽车是其中最膨胀的，即使是该领域最成熟的参与者也拥有23.5的市销率。这个市场上有一些昂贵的名字，有些甚至没有销售额——更不用说盈利了！</blockquote></p><p> Rivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”</p><p><blockquote>Rivian就是一个很好的例子。就像Pets.com一样，它有很大的市值，但没有利润。该公司在招股说明书中声称，它有48,390份预购订单，每份订单已收取1,000美元。如果是这样的话，那么它从这些订单中获得了4830万美元的现金。在车辆交付之前，该公司无法将其中任何一项确认为收入。如果我们将4830万美元现金视为一种“出售”，那么Rivian的市销率达到了惊人的2270。这个数字非常高，但根据美国公认会计准则，这些不被视为“销售额”。相反，在车辆开始交付之前，它们都是一种负债。也就是说，直到收入“赚到”为止。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to&nbsp;<b>Telsa</b>(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之：Rivian的估值非常高，即使我们对它很慷慨。与之前的Pets.com一样，它的交易估值并非基于现实世界的表现。炒作，与<b>特尔萨</b>（特斯拉）和对电动汽车的普遍乐观情绪推动了价格上涨，而不是基本面。泡沫的所有迹象都在那里。有鉴于此，投资者谨慎对待该股是明智的，因为它开始看起来像90年代末上涨但在2000年痛苦崩溃的纳斯达克泡沫股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Pets.com：泡沫解剖</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.</p><p><blockquote>谈论2000年的崩溃不可能不提到Pets.com。它是互联网泡沫破灭中最臭名昭著的股票，在很多方面都是那个时期纳斯达克的缩影。</blockquote></p><p> Early on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its&nbsp;first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a&nbsp;$1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>早些时候，Pets.com的情况看起来很好。亚马逊在第一次风险投资中购买了该公司的大量股份。后来，一个投资者财团注入了1050万美元。该公司投放了价值120万美元的超级碗广告。最终，它成为一个家喻户晓的名字。2000年2月，它以每股11美元的价格上市，筹集了8250万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Things were going well.</p><p><blockquote>事情进展得很顺利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it&nbsp;went bankrupt and was delisted.</p><p><blockquote>但人们开始对IPET的商业模式提出尖锐的问题。它很难通过邮寄大袋狗粮来产生正的毛利率。它以低于成本的价格出售，试图获得市场份额。它花了400美元来获得每个新客户。最后，它面临着来自许多公司的激烈竞争，所有公司都提供相同的基本服务。2000年11月破产退市。</blockquote></p><p> IPET’s&nbsp;final annual report&nbsp;contained the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>IPET的最终年度报告包含以下指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>现金：460万美元，比上年下降52%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total assets: $4.7 million, down 62%</p><p><blockquote><li>总资产：470万美元，下降62%</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.</p><p><blockquote><li>总负债：418万美元，下降56%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash raised in liquidation: $438,000.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算中筹集的现金：43.8万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算花费的现金：630万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> No revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.</p><p><blockquote>没有报告收入或收益，因为报告发布时该公司尚未开展业务。相反，它是一家清算公司，专注于偿还投资者。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.</p><p><blockquote>在这里很难看不到与Rivian的相似之处。我们经历了亚马逊的早期投资、轰动一时的IPO、缺乏利润以及IPO后的抛售。Rivian的案例中缺少的一个因素是真正破碎的商业模式。RIVN似乎没有做任何让利润变得不可能的事情。但该公司在拥有任何真正价值之前还有很长的路要走。与此同时，投资者只能阅读有关预购和货车范围的模糊信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:</p><p><blockquote>了解Rivian价值的一种方法是查看其运营所在的市场。电动汽车行业竞争激烈，有明确的市场领导者：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>特斯拉.</i></blockquote></p><p> TSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is&nbsp;<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it&nbsp;delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在市值和收入方面都主导着电动汽车行业，尽管其市值主导地位远强于其销量领先地位。其他公司在交付方面正在追赶特斯拉。其中之一是<b>大众汽车</b>（OTCPK：VWAGY）。第三季度，其交付了12.21万辆全电动汽车。根据Statista的数据，它在全球电动汽车领域拥有12.5%的市场份额，仅次于特斯拉。不过，在大众汽车之后，这一数字急剧下降。这个空间里有十几个玩家。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to&nbsp;Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian在电动汽车领域的市场份额无法计算，因为我们不知道它将销售多少辆汽车。如果48,000份预购订单加上亚马逊订购的100,000辆汽车最终实现，那么未来的交付量将达到148,000辆。然而，这些交付量不能计入特定的季度或年份。亚马逊货车将在四年内交付，预购可能会失败。因此，我们无法将Rivian第三季度的148,000辆潜在销量与特斯拉的237,000辆或大众的122,000辆进行比较。时间框架不一致。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which&nbsp;TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们知道Rivian的份额可能相当小。如果亚马逊的交易持续到2024年底，那么每年的交付量为25,000次，即每季度6,250次。这是假设交付将于2021年开始，TechCrunch称情况确实如此。由于大多数购车者订购的是当年的车型，48,000份预购订单可能会在一年内交付。因此，假设每年向亚马逊发送25,000份，有一年——也许是2022年——将在12个月内向客户发送48,000份。这使我们一年达到73,000人，即每季度24,333人。与特斯拉和大众相差甚远。而且我们甚至不知道48000的预购会不会通过！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Another set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以衡量Rivian价值的另一组项目是它的倍数。总的来说，它没有任何。但我们可以根据未来的情景得出一种假设的市销率。</blockquote></p><p> If you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.</p><p><blockquote>如果你将Rivian 1000美元的预购定金视为“销售额”，那么你的销售额约为4800万美元。这将产生2,270的市销率，尽管根据美国公认会计准则，这些存款不被视为收入。我们还可以为亚马逊订单投入一些不确定的金额，但没有确认已经开始产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:</p><p><blockquote>也许更好的倍数是使用未来的收入。Rivian卡车起价69,000美元。我们知道有48,000个消费者预购，四年内有100,000个亚马逊订单（平均每年25,000个）。这可能会使我们未来一年的销量达到73,000辆。如果平均每辆车69,000美元，那么我们的收入将达到50.37亿美元。周五的市值为1090亿美元，我们的远期市销率为22。这并不完全疯狂，但请记住，我们在这里假设：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The 48,000 pre-orders will come through.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>48,000份预购订单将会完成。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>They’ll all be delivered in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><li>它们都将在2022年交付。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Amazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.</p><p><blockquote><li>即使在丑闻范围报告之后，亚马逊也不会退出订单。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> That’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.</p><p><blockquote>这需要做很多假设。很有可能，这个拼图中至少有一个移动的部分不合适。因此，我们在这里得到的是一个“最佳情况”的市销率，Rivian宣布的所有销售额实际上都很接近。2022年也不少！我试图尽可能地仁慈地对待我的预测，然而倍数最终仍然非常高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Rivian is this:</p><p><blockquote>Rivian的底线是：</blockquote></p><p> If any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.</p><p><blockquote>如果说2021年有哪家公司可以成为另一家Pets.com，那就是Rivian。</blockquote></p><p> It has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.</p><p><blockquote>它没有公认会计准则认可的销售额。它的IPO在达到令人难以置信的估值后破产了。它被炒作所包围，但几乎没有什么支持。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，它是那个时代的产物，是一只在炒作已成为常态的时代被炒作的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Does that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着Rivian股票肯定会下跌？几乎不。正如RIVN多头存在风险一样，其空头也存在风险。社交媒体的持续炒作、交付量的意外增长，或者亚马逊完成订单，所有这些情况都使RIVN成为空头风险非常大的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> But just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>但就像之前的Pets.com一样，RIVN看起来不太可能兑现其IPO的承诺。出于这个原因，我将传递股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-23 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Rivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.</li>  <li>However, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.</li>  <li>Thanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d065787049af8b17ea35806fbb51971\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian的首次公开募股取得了巨大成功，之后市值达到了1090亿美元。</li><li>然而，该公司受到了一系列负面报道的打击，包括福特退出与其合作伙伴关系。</li><li>由于其高估值，Rivian开始看起来像Pets.com——2000年互联网泡沫破裂的典型代表。</li><li>在本文中，我将对Rivian提出看跌论点，认为其目前的价格水平仍然过高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Rivian</b>(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>(F) announced that it had&nbsp;scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture&nbsp;with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(AMZN) had less range than advertised.</p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian</b>(RIVN)股东上周收到了一些坏消息，当时<b>福特</b>(F)宣布取消与该公司成立合资企业的计划。这一消息是在一份报告称Rivian的电动货车专为<b>亚马逊</b>（AMZN）的范围比宣传的要小。</blockquote></p><p> Following the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.</p><p><blockquote>公告发布后，福特保留了RIVN 12%的股权。但它的行为让人对未来的任何合作产生了怀疑。从现在开始，福特将只是一家拥有RIVN股票的公司。未来不会有有利可图的合作。</blockquote></p><p> With last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.</p><p><blockquote>随着上周的消息，Rivian最大的两个投资者Amazon和Ford给该公司带来了双重打击。甚至在福特消息下跌之前，投资者就已经在抛售Rivian了。在IPO后上涨后，RIVN下跌25%，从172美元跌至128.60美元。有关该公司没有收入的报道可能是导致上市几天后遭遇抛售的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the&nbsp;NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>在许多方面，Rivian已经成为一些人所说的“新科技泡沫”的典型代表。随着纳斯达克股市似乎每天都创下新高，我们开始看到价格走势让人想起2000年初，当时纳斯达克的市盈率达到175。当泡沫最终破裂时，科技股下跌了80%。纳斯达克花了15年时间才恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> The most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2000年代所有泡沫股票中最臭名昭著的是Pets.com。与Rivian一样，它吸引了亚马逊等大型科技公司的投资。IPET 1998年首次公开募股筹集了8250万美元，其股价首次亮相时为11美元。在它最强大的时候，它在梅西节游行中放了一个气球。但由于商业模式无利可图，该公司迅速亏损。该公司最终破产，到2000年底，股价为每股0.06美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find&nbsp;semi stocks,social media stocks, and even&nbsp;blue chip SaaS stocks&nbsp;above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space&nbsp;sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!</p><p><blockquote>虽然纳斯达克远未接近2000年的高估水平，但一些个股正在接近这一水平。我们可以找到销售额超过20倍的semi股票、社交媒体股票，甚至蓝筹SaaS股票。电动汽车是其中最膨胀的，即使是该领域最成熟的参与者也拥有23.5的市销率。这个市场上有一些昂贵的名字，有些甚至没有销售额——更不用说盈利了！</blockquote></p><p> Rivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”</p><p><blockquote>Rivian就是一个很好的例子。就像Pets.com一样，它有很大的市值，但没有利润。该公司在招股说明书中声称，它有48,390份预购订单，每份订单已收取1,000美元。如果是这样的话，那么它从这些订单中获得了4830万美元的现金。在车辆交付之前，该公司无法将其中任何一项确认为收入。如果我们将4830万美元现金视为一种“出售”，那么Rivian的市销率达到了惊人的2270。这个数字非常高，但根据美国公认会计准则，这些不被视为“销售额”。相反，在车辆开始交付之前，它们都是一种负债。也就是说，直到收入“赚到”为止。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to&nbsp;<b>Telsa</b>(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之：Rivian的估值非常高，即使我们对它很慷慨。与之前的Pets.com一样，它的交易估值并非基于现实世界的表现。炒作，与<b>特尔萨</b>（特斯拉）和对电动汽车的普遍乐观情绪推动了价格上涨，而不是基本面。泡沫的所有迹象都在那里。有鉴于此，投资者谨慎对待该股是明智的，因为它开始看起来像90年代末上涨但在2000年痛苦崩溃的纳斯达克泡沫股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Pets.com：泡沫解剖</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.</p><p><blockquote>谈论2000年的崩溃不可能不提到Pets.com。它是互联网泡沫破灭中最臭名昭著的股票，在很多方面都是那个时期纳斯达克的缩影。</blockquote></p><p> Early on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its&nbsp;first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a&nbsp;$1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>早些时候，Pets.com的情况看起来很好。亚马逊在第一次风险投资中购买了该公司的大量股份。后来，一个投资者财团注入了1050万美元。该公司投放了价值120万美元的超级碗广告。最终，它成为一个家喻户晓的名字。2000年2月，它以每股11美元的价格上市，筹集了8250万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Things were going well.</p><p><blockquote>事情进展得很顺利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it&nbsp;went bankrupt and was delisted.</p><p><blockquote>但人们开始对IPET的商业模式提出尖锐的问题。它很难通过邮寄大袋狗粮来产生正的毛利率。它以低于成本的价格出售，试图获得市场份额。它花了400美元来获得每个新客户。最后，它面临着来自许多公司的激烈竞争，所有公司都提供相同的基本服务。2000年11月破产退市。</blockquote></p><p> IPET’s&nbsp;final annual report&nbsp;contained the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>IPET的最终年度报告包含以下指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>现金：460万美元，比上年下降52%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total assets: $4.7 million, down 62%</p><p><blockquote><li>总资产：470万美元，下降62%</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.</p><p><blockquote><li>总负债：418万美元，下降56%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash raised in liquidation: $438,000.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算中筹集的现金：43.8万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算花费的现金：630万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> No revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.</p><p><blockquote>没有报告收入或收益，因为报告发布时该公司尚未开展业务。相反，它是一家清算公司，专注于偿还投资者。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.</p><p><blockquote>在这里很难看不到与Rivian的相似之处。我们经历了亚马逊的早期投资、轰动一时的IPO、缺乏利润以及IPO后的抛售。Rivian的案例中缺少的一个因素是真正破碎的商业模式。RIVN似乎没有做任何让利润变得不可能的事情。但该公司在拥有任何真正价值之前还有很长的路要走。与此同时，投资者只能阅读有关预购和货车范围的模糊信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:</p><p><blockquote>了解Rivian价值的一种方法是查看其运营所在的市场。电动汽车行业竞争激烈，有明确的市场领导者：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>特斯拉.</i></blockquote></p><p> TSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is&nbsp;<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it&nbsp;delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在市值和收入方面都主导着电动汽车行业，尽管其市值主导地位远强于其销量领先地位。其他公司在交付方面正在追赶特斯拉。其中之一是<b>大众汽车</b>（OTCPK：VWAGY）。第三季度，其交付了12.21万辆全电动汽车。根据Statista的数据，它在全球电动汽车领域拥有12.5%的市场份额，仅次于特斯拉。不过，在大众汽车之后，这一数字急剧下降。这个空间里有十几个玩家。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to&nbsp;Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian在电动汽车领域的市场份额无法计算，因为我们不知道它将销售多少辆汽车。如果48,000份预购订单加上亚马逊订购的100,000辆汽车最终实现，那么未来的交付量将达到148,000辆。然而，这些交付量不能计入特定的季度或年份。亚马逊货车将在四年内交付，预购可能会失败。因此，我们无法将Rivian第三季度的148,000辆潜在销量与特斯拉的237,000辆或大众的122,000辆进行比较。时间框架不一致。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which&nbsp;TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们知道Rivian的份额可能相当小。如果亚马逊的交易持续到2024年底，那么每年的交付量为25,000次，即每季度6,250次。这是假设交付将于2021年开始，TechCrunch称情况确实如此。由于大多数购车者订购的是当年的车型，48,000份预购订单可能会在一年内交付。因此，假设每年向亚马逊发送25,000份，有一年——也许是2022年——将在12个月内向客户发送48,000份。这使我们一年达到73,000人，即每季度24,333人。与特斯拉和大众相差甚远。而且我们甚至不知道48000的预购会不会通过！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Another set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以衡量Rivian价值的另一组项目是它的倍数。总的来说，它没有任何。但我们可以根据未来的情景得出一种假设的市销率。</blockquote></p><p> If you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.</p><p><blockquote>如果你将Rivian 1000美元的预购定金视为“销售额”，那么你的销售额约为4800万美元。这将产生2,270的市销率，尽管根据美国公认会计准则，这些存款不被视为收入。我们还可以为亚马逊订单投入一些不确定的金额，但没有确认已经开始产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:</p><p><blockquote>也许更好的倍数是使用未来的收入。Rivian卡车起价69,000美元。我们知道有48,000个消费者预购，四年内有100,000个亚马逊订单（平均每年25,000个）。这可能会使我们未来一年的销量达到73,000辆。如果平均每辆车69,000美元，那么我们的收入将达到50.37亿美元。周五的市值为1090亿美元，我们的远期市销率为22。这并不完全疯狂，但请记住，我们在这里假设：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The 48,000 pre-orders will come through.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>48,000份预购订单将会完成。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>They’ll all be delivered in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><li>它们都将在2022年交付。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Amazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.</p><p><blockquote><li>即使在丑闻范围报告之后，亚马逊也不会退出订单。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> That’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.</p><p><blockquote>这需要做很多假设。很有可能，这个拼图中至少有一个移动的部分不合适。因此，我们在这里得到的是一个“最佳情况”的市销率，Rivian宣布的所有销售额实际上都很接近。2022年也不少！我试图尽可能地仁慈地对待我的预测，然而倍数最终仍然非常高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Rivian is this:</p><p><blockquote>Rivian的底线是：</blockquote></p><p> If any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.</p><p><blockquote>如果说2021年有哪家公司可以成为另一家Pets.com，那就是Rivian。</blockquote></p><p> It has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.</p><p><blockquote>它没有公认会计准则认可的销售额。它的IPO在达到令人难以置信的估值后破产了。它被炒作所包围，但几乎没有什么支持。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，它是那个时代的产物，是一只在炒作已成为常态的时代被炒作的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Does that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着Rivian股票肯定会下跌？几乎不。正如RIVN多头存在风险一样，其空头也存在风险。社交媒体的持续炒作、交付量的意外增长，或者亚马逊完成订单，所有这些情况都使RIVN成为空头风险非常大的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> But just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>但就像之前的Pets.com一样，RIVN看起来不太可能兑现其IPO的承诺。出于这个原因，我将传递股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471317-rivian-2021-petscom\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471317-rivian-2021-petscom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695405","content_text":"Summary\n\nRivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.\nHowever, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.\nThanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.\nIn this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images News\nRivian(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when Ford(F) announced that it had scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for Amazon(AMZN) had less range than advertised.\nFollowing the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.\nWith last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.\nIn many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.\nThe most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.\nWhile the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find semi stocks,social media stocks, and even blue chip SaaS stocks above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!\nRivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”\nPut simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to Telsa(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.\nPets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble\nIt’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.\nEarly on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a $1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.\nThings were going well.\nBut people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it went bankrupt and was delisted.\nIPET’s final annual report contained the following metrics:\n\nCash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.\nTotal assets: $4.7 million, down 62%\nTotal liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.\nCash raised in liquidation: $438,000.\nCash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.\n\nNo revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.\nIt’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:\nTesla.\nTSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.\nRivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.\nNevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!\nValuation\nAnother set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.\nIf you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.\nPerhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:\n\nThe 48,000 pre-orders will come through.\nThey’ll all be delivered in 2022.\nAmazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.\n\nThat’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.\nThe Bottom Line\nThe bottom line on Rivian is this:\nIf any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.\nIt has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.\nPut simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.\nDoes that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.\nBut just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872183108,"gmtCreate":1637458279236,"gmtModify":1637458279328,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872183108","repostId":"2184828468","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878586298,"gmtCreate":1637207172110,"gmtModify":1637207172223,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878586298","repostId":"2184859473","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878586832,"gmtCreate":1637207146207,"gmtModify":1637207146324,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878586832","repostId":"2184853339","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878588157,"gmtCreate":1637207019710,"gmtModify":1637207019789,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878588157","repostId":"2184885073","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}