As 2024 draws to an end with Christmas bells ringing, I finished adjusting most of the positions for the year. Looking back, I started 2024 with backlog from 2023. I did 2 major mistakes then in 2023. 1. Overconcentrated positions in Alibaba, which resulted in big swings against my portfolio. Margin requirements went up significantly also, as at peak, up to 80% of my margin requirement was used up by Alibaba. I resolved to reduce my Alibaba sizes in 2024 and diversified away. This is also the reason why many experienced investors advocated portfolio and risk management. Over concentration does bring fast money, but disproportionate risks as well. 2. Earnings play. During 2023, I dabbled in earnings play by selling short strangles. Most of the time, I made money, but
First time I heard about left and right side trading. [LOL] Usually the terms I am aware of is momentum trading and value investing. Trend following or contrarian investing. In order not to mix up the directions, I will just comment in terms of momentum trading and contrarian trading. Momentum trading focuses on identifying new trends early and ride the trend for as long as possible until hit set targets or before reversal of trends. Contrarian trading focus is on identifying Reversal patterns, usually after bull runs or bearish plunges. Then trying to plan early start to new trend or have additional buffer. Personally, over the years I realised that trend following doesn't suit my style. Trend following can't start early without clear signals
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Robo taxi could end up being a sell the news event. If the recent rally is really due to robo taxi optimism, it's actually A scary reason to buy in at current prices. Robotaxi has already been scheduled a while back and kept on pushing back. This rally could just end up being a relief rally instead of a rally with legs. Investors/traders are relieved that finally there's more concrete news on robotaxi. However, the bar for disappointment is very high. If the event is merely to say that robotaxi is ready, but no concrete details on when will authorities allow it, it's just saying that tesla now has FSD, but government doesn't allow the usage of FSD. Hands still n
Bonta is a cute mecha from full metal panic anime series, which is piloted by Sagara souske who grew up in war torn country and lives his life fighting battles. The pilot reminds me that investing is a war zone, and every battle should be fought seriously. Fight to win, if conditions are unfavourable, retreat, regroup, replan and fight again. Bonta being the cute version of mecha, reminds me that money is important, however, I should balance with other aspects of life, and do not get swept away by financial pursuits. It marks my approach towards investing. Invest to make money. Investing needs to have strategy and plan. Won’t win all battles, retreat, regroup and continue fighting. Meanwhile, dun forget that life is more than just about money. [Cool]
Back in 2022, I wrote an article about my visit to Tesla's Singapore's showroom and how unimpressed I am by Tesla cars. It's overhyped and expensive for what they provide. During that time, there were significant tesla cars on Singapore's roads. Fast forward 2 years later, the EVs on the road are dominated by BYD. BYD managed to produce cars that are high quality, functional and yet cheaper than tesla. BYD cars are winning awards in 2023 With tesla no where in sight. To make things worse, other car companies like Hyundai are improving their ev quality, such as Ioniq 5 which won car of year award. Tesla has been losing its edge as a car maker as other companies start to close on to their lead. In BYD's case, they simply walkEd over tesla and claimed their lead. Elon musk h
Being a contrarian investor/trader, markets at all time highs are not music that I will want to hear. Toppish markets makes it difficult to accumulate undervalued stocks or identify undervalue opportunity. There's lots of talks and advise on how this stock market rally still have legs as earnings is still expanding and we should be evaluating based on future earnings growth. Sounds good and sounds factual. stocks are forward looking, earnings forecast is forward looking, however, when everyone is an optimist, funny things happen. Just look at the fall during august 5th. Compare that against volatility chart $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Recent volatility are at lows, which means that there isn't much fear in the markets. What
I believe in spending as a portion of income instead of asset. For dividend investors, when we look at dividend returns, do we look at it from angle of cash assets from company cash or is it from Free cash flow? I believe that in order for dividend returns to be substainable, it should be from what is recurring. When we spend a portion of recurring income while Leaving capital untouched, we can use the capital to invest and in return even higher cash flow. Hence, I believe in spending as a portion of recurring income instead of vs assets. Similar to how we evaluate dividend companies. With regards to 1:100 or 1:1000. Using the same approach, but vs income. When income is $4000, spending $4 won’t be painful. But spending $40 builds up rapidly. Hence, before income is high enough to spe