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2021-06-23

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Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong<blockquote>为什么即使企业收入强劲，美国股市仍将面临艰难的十年</blockquote>

Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy. Might there be hope, after al

Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong<blockquote>为什么即使企业收入强劲，美国股市仍将面临艰难的十年</blockquote>

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Might there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.<blockquote>股市的回报将与美国经济的增长速度相同。毕竟，美国股市在未来十年的回归还有希望吗？我在本月早些时候的专栏中提出了这个问题，我在该专栏中得出的结论是，即使在乐观的假设下，未来10年标准普尔500SPX指数+0.51%也不太可能产生高于低个位数的年化总实际回报率。</blockquote> My argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).<blockquote>我的论点是，股市将无法依靠过去十年支撑它的三大支柱——估值、利润率和比新股发行更多的回购（净回购）。</blockquote> Some readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.<blockquote>一些读者回应说，我忽略了一个可以让市场产生可观回报的出口：企业收入的增长速度可以快于美国整体经济。如果是这样的话，那么股市就不需要这三大支柱中的任何一个就能表现良好。</blockquote> This escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&amp;P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”<blockquote>这个逃生舱门背后似乎有确凿的证据。考虑一下瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师兼量化研究主管乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)最近给客户的一份报告。他报告说，根据他基于2000年以来标普500销售额和GDP构建的计量经济学模型，“名义GDP每上涨1%，收入就会增加2.5-3%。”</blockquote> If so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.<blockquote>如果是这样，这对股票投资者来说肯定是件好事。这意味着，即使没有提高估值、利润率或净回购，股市也可能大幅跑赢整体经济。</blockquote> Unfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&amp;P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.<blockquote>不幸的是，这个论点好得令人难以置信。我分析了20世纪70年代初的标普500销售额（由Ned Davis Research提供的数据），发现销售额增长和GDP增长之间几乎是1：1的相关性。</blockquote> This is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”<blockquote>Research Affiliates董事长兼创始人罗伯特·阿诺特(Robert Arnott)表示，这完全是我们应该期待的。他在一封电子邮件中表示，“总销售额与GDP应该呈现出相当干净的1：1关系。任何其他比率在持续的基础上都没有意义。”</blockquote> How then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)<blockquote>那么，戈卢布是如何得出如此不同的答案的呢？我的直觉是，这可以追溯到他如何衡量销售额。在一封电子邮件中，Golub的同事、瑞士信贷股票策略师Manish Bangard解释说，他们关注的是每股销售额。但是，正如阿诺特指出的那样，这个每股数字反映了净回购的影响。因此，Golub报告的高销售额与GDP之比并不是销售增长与GDP关系的纯粹衡量标准。（我没有收到对我的补充评论请求的回应。）</blockquote> Investment implication<blockquote>投资影响</blockquote> The implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).<blockquote>这意味着我们不应该期望未来十年美国股市的增长速度快于经济。事实上，如果市盈率或利润率倒退到历史平均水平的一部分，或者如果净回购结果为负（就像美国历史上的大部分时间一样），它的增长可能会慢得多。</blockquote> But even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.<blockquote>但即使从现在到2031年，市盈率和利润率保持不变，并且没有净回购，历史的教训是，美国市场的增长速度也不会快于经济。</blockquote> Consider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.<blockquote>想想这意味着什么。国会预算办公室预计，2022年至2031年实际GDP将以1.8%的年化增长率增长。即使这样也可能是乐观的，因为CBO预计从现在到那时不会出现衰退。</blockquote> The bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.<blockquote>底线是：股市还有很多工作要做，即使是过去十年惊人回报的一小部分。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong<blockquote>为什么即使企业收入强劲，美国股市仍将面临艰难的十年</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong<blockquote>为什么即使企业收入强劲，美国股市仍将面临艰难的十年</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-23 19:39\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy. Might there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.<blockquote>股市的回报将与美国经济的增长速度相同。毕竟，美国股市在未来十年的回归还有希望吗？我在本月早些时候的专栏中提出了这个问题，我在该专栏中得出的结论是，即使在乐观的假设下，未来10年标准普尔500SPX指数+0.51%也不太可能产生高于低个位数的年化总实际回报率。</blockquote> My argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).<blockquote>我的论点是，股市将无法依靠过去十年支撑它的三大支柱——估值、利润率和比新股发行更多的回购（净回购）。</blockquote> Some readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.<blockquote>一些读者回应说，我忽略了一个可以让市场产生可观回报的出口：企业收入的增长速度可以快于美国整体经济。如果是这样的话，那么股市就不需要这三大支柱中的任何一个就能表现良好。</blockquote> This escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&amp;P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”<blockquote>这个逃生舱门背后似乎有确凿的证据。考虑一下瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师兼量化研究主管乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)最近给客户的一份报告。他报告说，根据他基于2000年以来标普500销售额和GDP构建的计量经济学模型，“名义GDP每上涨1%，收入就会增加2.5-3%。”</blockquote> If so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.<blockquote>如果是这样，这对股票投资者来说肯定是件好事。这意味着，即使没有提高估值、利润率或净回购，股市也可能大幅跑赢整体经济。</blockquote> Unfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&amp;P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.<blockquote>不幸的是，这个论点好得令人难以置信。我分析了20世纪70年代初的标普500销售额（由Ned Davis Research提供的数据），发现销售额增长和GDP增长之间几乎是1：1的相关性。</blockquote> This is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”<blockquote>Research Affiliates董事长兼创始人罗伯特·阿诺特(Robert Arnott)表示，这完全是我们应该期待的。他在一封电子邮件中表示，“总销售额与GDP应该呈现出相当干净的1：1关系。任何其他比率在持续的基础上都没有意义。”</blockquote> How then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)<blockquote>那么，戈卢布是如何得出如此不同的答案的呢？我的直觉是，这可以追溯到他如何衡量销售额。在一封电子邮件中，Golub的同事、瑞士信贷股票策略师Manish Bangard解释说，他们关注的是每股销售额。但是，正如阿诺特指出的那样，这个每股数字反映了净回购的影响。因此，Golub报告的高销售额与GDP之比并不是销售增长与GDP关系的纯粹衡量标准。（我没有收到对我的补充评论请求的回应。）</blockquote> Investment implication<blockquote>投资影响</blockquote> The implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).<blockquote>这意味着我们不应该期望未来十年美国股市的增长速度快于经济。事实上，如果市盈率或利润率倒退到历史平均水平的一部分，或者如果净回购结果为负（就像美国历史上的大部分时间一样），它的增长可能会慢得多。</blockquote> But even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.<blockquote>但即使从现在到2031年，市盈率和利润率保持不变，并且没有净回购，历史的教训是，美国市场的增长速度也不会快于经济。</blockquote> Consider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.<blockquote>想想这意味着什么。国会预算办公室预计，2022年至2031年实际GDP将以1.8%的年化增长率增长。即使这样也可能是乐观的，因为CBO预计从现在到那时不会出现衰退。</blockquote> The bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.<blockquote>底线是：股市还有很多工作要做，即使是过去十年惊人回报的一小部分。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198462718","content_text":"Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.\n\nMight there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.\nMy argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).\nSome readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.\nThis escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”\nIf so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.\nUnfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.\nThis is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”\nHow then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)\nInvestment implication\nThe implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).\nBut even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.\nConsider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.\nThe bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}