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Ziling
2021-06-28

Waiting for the right time

Tesla: Recent Weakness Is An Opportunity<blockquote>特斯拉：近期的疲软是一个机会</blockquote>

Summary Tesla has been declining during the recent months, creating opportunities for patient inves

Tesla: Recent Weakness Is An Opportunity<blockquote>特斯拉：近期的疲软是一个机会</blockquote>

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This could be seen as normal since the stock saw a massive bull run in 2020 and some noticeable risks started arising. One of these risks was inflationary pressure leading to investors speculating that the FED will taper and raise rates earlier than expected. This fear caused the overall tech and growth sector to decline. However, the inflationary fears dragging the tech and growth sector have been weakening over the past few months. Although the actual inflation seen in the CPI data worsened year-over-year, investors are reacting less negatively to the news, lessening the pressure on overall tech and growth stocks. Also, the 10-year treasury yield is declining finally setting up a potential for a rotation back into tech and growth. Thus, as the overall market is turning favorable for tech and growth stocks, I would like to discuss one of the most famous growth stocks, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).<blockquote>过去几个月，特斯拉股价一直在努力上涨。这可以被视为正常，因为该股在2020年经历了大规模牛市，一些明显的风险开始出现。其中一个风险是通胀压力，导致投资者猜测美联储将比预期更早缩减和加息。这种担忧导致整个科技和增长行业下滑。然而，过去几个月，拖累科技和增长行业的通胀担忧一直在减弱。尽管CPI数据中的实际通胀同比恶化，但投资者对这一消息的负面反应较少，减轻了整体科技股和成长股的压力。此外，10年期国债收益率正在下降，最终为回归科技和增长领域奠定了基础。因此，随着整体市场转向有利于科技股和成长股，我想讨论一下最著名的成长股之一，特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）。</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Tesla recently has been under attack as investors started questioning valuations and competitive risks. Some bearish arguments pointed out that the competition was intensifying in the BEV (battery electric vehicle) industry, and that Tesla is still unprofitable without selling Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and carbon emissions credit. While I agree that these risks are legitimate and should be considered, I believe that these risks are insignificant to Tesla’s future opportunities. In fact, I think this short-term turmoil is only causing buying opportunities. Here’s why:<blockquote>随着投资者开始质疑估值和竞争风险，特斯拉最近受到了攻击。一些看跌观点指出，BEV（电池电动汽车）行业的竞争正在加剧，如果不出售比特币（BTC-USD）和碳排放额度，特斯拉仍然无法盈利。虽然我同意这些风险是合理的，应该考虑，但我认为这些风险对特斯拉未来的机会来说微不足道。事实上，我认为这种短期动荡只是造成了买入机会。原因如下：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Tesla is creating its own ecosystem that no other automakers can replicate.<blockquote><ol><li>特斯拉正在创建自己的生态系统，这是其他汽车制造商无法复制的。</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>In the age where data is the new oil, Tesla is the only automaker utilizing the valuable data.<blockquote><li>在数据就是新石油的时代，特斯拉是唯一一家利用宝贵数据的汽车制造商。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> Bears Say: Tesla Is Still Unprofitable<blockquote>看空者称：特斯拉仍未盈利</blockquote> By now, it is well known that Tesla’s profitability does not come from selling cars. Tesla, despite improvements over the years, still relies heavily on regulatory credits to generate income. I believe that this does not pose any problem. Tesla simply does not need to make money today; this may continue to be a threat in the short term, but I think the current profitability structure is fine from a long-term investor perspective. Tesla has been treading along the profitability breakeven point; I think Tesla is leveraging its ability to generate cash from selling regulatory credits to invest back into its growth. The BEV market is just getting started and as bears have pointed out, the competition is starting to roll in; thus, there is no reason for Tesla to sacrifice growth for profits today.<blockquote>到目前为止，众所周知，特斯拉的盈利能力并不来自于销售汽车。尽管多年来有所改善，但特斯拉仍然严重依赖监管信贷来创收。我相信这不会造成任何问题。特斯拉今天根本不需要赚钱；这在短期内可能会继续构成威胁，但我认为从长期投资者的角度来看，目前的盈利结构是好的。特斯拉一直在盈利盈亏平衡点上徘徊；我认为特斯拉正在利用其通过出售监管信贷产生现金的能力来重新投资于其增长。纯电动汽车市场才刚刚起步，正如看空者指出的那样，竞争已经开始滚滚而来；因此，特斯拉今天没有理由为了利润而牺牲增长。</blockquote> An example of Tesla focusing on growth instead of profits is Tesla’s commitment to making a&nbsp;25,000$ vehicle.This cheap vehicle will not be good for Tesla’s margins or net income; however, the vehicle will further strengthen Tesla’s ecosystem, which will be discussed later, and expand the overall BEV market. As the overall BEV market expands, the volume will soon follow, allowing Tesla to be more efficient with scale as the most expensive component in the vehicle, lithium-ion battery price decreases over time. Tesla’s strategy has been clear since the beginning: focus on growth. Nothing has changed but investors' expectations; profits will naturally follow as the market matures. Now is simply not the time to focus on profits.<blockquote>特斯拉关注增长而不是利润的一个例子是特斯拉承诺制造一辆25,000美元的汽车。这种廉价汽车对特斯拉的利润率或净利润没有好处；然而，该车将进一步加强特斯拉的生态系统（稍后将讨论），并扩大整体BEV市场。随着整个纯电动汽车市场的扩大，销量很快就会随之而来，使特斯拉能够通过规模化提高效率作为车辆中最昂贵的部件，锂离子电池的价格会随着时间的推移而下降。特斯拉的战略从一开始就很明确：专注于增长。除了投资者的预期，什么都没有改变；随着市场的成熟，利润自然会随之而来。现在根本不是关注利润的时候。</blockquote> Bloomberg: Quoting GM CEO Mary<blockquote>彭博社：引用通用汽车首席执行官玛丽</blockquote> EV margins will match what they are today for combustion-engine cars by the “mid or later part of the decade.” Furthermore, as the quote shows, EV profitability is not only Tesla’s problem. No automaker is making significant positive net income selling BEV vehicles today. Thus, Tesla's focus on growth and the economies of scale should not be criticized.<blockquote>到“本世纪中期或后期”，电动汽车的利润率将与目前内燃机汽车的利润率相当。此外，正如报价所示，电动汽车盈利能力不仅仅是特斯拉的问题。如今，没有一家汽车制造商通过销售纯电动汽车获得显着的正净利润。因此，特斯拉对增长和规模经济的关注不应受到批评。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27aa28f3efd41460dca185274ea936eb\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> As the picture above shows, Lithium-ion battery pack costs are continuing to decrease significantly, and as this trend accelerates, Tesla’s margin will naturally go up. Thus, Tesla’s best interest is still in growth and expansion rather than achieving limited profitability today.<blockquote>如上图所示，锂离子电池组成本正在持续大幅降低，而随着这一趋势的加速，特斯拉的利润率自然也就上去了。因此，特斯拉的最大利益仍然是增长和扩张，而不是今天实现有限的盈利。</blockquote> Unique Ecosystem<blockquote>独特的生态系统</blockquote> Moving on to my bullish argument, Tesla has a unique ecosystem that can not be replicated by any other legacy automobile manufacturers. To know the importance of an ecosystem, we need to look at Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). What makes Apple so different? Samsung (OTC:SSNLF)&nbsp;sells more phones than Apple, yet Apple makes more money, by far. Furthermore, iPhone does not have the highest specs. iPhones do not have the best camera (in terms of megapixels), biggest RAM, biggest storage, or best screen refresh rate. Then, why is Apple making so much money and why can't other manufacturers with similar technology replicate Apple’s success? The answer to this question, in my opinion, is that Apple has an ecosystem that can not be replicated by Samsung or any other phone maker. Consumers love Apple’s ecosystem that offers every service in a simple, immersive, and frictionless manner. Once a consumer enters this ecosystem, it is almost impossible to leave. Apple makes its own chips, operating system, music services, tablets, laptops, app stores, and many more services locking in loyal customers and selling products at higher margins. Then, what is Tesla’s ecosystem? It is still in the early stages, but Tesla is the only automaker that operates its own charging station allowing consumers to experience the frictionless ecosystem or connectivity. Tesla cars preheat the battery and get the battery ready for supercharging while the car locates the chargers and leads the driver to the superchargers. The ecosystem does not stop here, Tesla, like Apple, designs its own chips, own operating system, and autonomous driving technology, which creates an immersive and frictionless ecosystem like Apple. The software and charging experience is unmatched, and it is only getting better with the eventual rise of autonomous technology and rumored&nbsp;Tesla restaurants.<blockquote>继续我的看涨论点，特斯拉拥有独特的生态系统，任何其他传统汽车制造商都无法复制。要了解生态系统的重要性，我们需要看看苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）。是什么让苹果如此不同？到目前为止，三星（场外交易代码：SSNLF）的手机销量比苹果多，但苹果赚的钱更多。此外，iPhone没有最高的规格。iPhones没有最好的摄像头（就百万像素而言）、最大的内存、最大的存储空间或最好的屏幕刷新率。那么，为什么苹果赚了这么多钱，为什么其他拥有类似技术的厂商无法复制苹果的成功呢？在我看来，这个问题的答案是，苹果拥有三星或任何其他手机制造商都无法复制的生态系统。消费者喜欢苹果的生态系统，它以简单、身临其境和无摩擦的方式提供每一项服务。消费者一旦进入这个生态系统，几乎不可能离开。苹果生产自己的芯片、操作系统、音乐服务、平板电脑、笔记本电脑、应用商店以及更多锁定忠诚客户并以更高利润销售产品的服务。那么，特斯拉的生态系统是什么？目前仍处于早期阶段，但特斯拉是唯一一家运营自己的充电站的汽车制造商，让消费者体验无摩擦的生态系统或连接。特斯拉汽车预热电池并为超级充电做好准备，同时汽车找到充电器并引导驾驶员前往超级充电站。生态系统并不止于此，特斯拉和苹果一样，设计自己的芯片、自己的操作系统和自动驾驶技术，这就像苹果一样创造了一个沉浸式、无摩擦的生态系统。软件和充电体验是无与伦比的，随着自动驾驶技术和传闻中的特斯拉餐厅的最终崛起，这种体验只会变得更好。</blockquote> This ecosystem will not only make Tesla unique, but it will also prevent consumers from moving over to its competitors because for consumers, it's all about modernized simplistic design with a frictionless experience that feels luxurious. I can't imagine any other automaker that can replicate Tesla’s brand and ecosystem. No automaker today is even close to providing its own superchargers, autonomous driving technologies, and unique software. Plus, no legacy automakers are or can sell FSD software for additional ten thousand dollars. The brand power, in my opinion, is strong enough to minimize the threat from the competition.<blockquote>这个生态系统不仅会使特斯拉独一无二，还会防止消费者转向其竞争对手，因为对于消费者来说，这一切都是关于现代化的简单设计和无摩擦的奢华体验。我无法想象任何其他汽车制造商能够复制特斯拉的品牌和生态系统。如今，没有一家汽车制造商能够提供自己的超级充电站、自动驾驶技术和独特的软件。此外，没有一家传统汽车制造商愿意或能够以额外一万美元的价格出售FSD软件。在我看来，品牌力量足够强大，可以将竞争的威胁降至最低。</blockquote> Thus, I believe investors do not need to worry too much about net income as long as the operational efficiencies do not get significantly worse. Tesla, in my opinion, is creating an ecosystem that will generate significant profitability through higher margins and more loyal customers in the future. Tesla is simply in its growth phases.<blockquote>因此，我认为只要运营效率没有明显恶化，投资者就不需要太担心净利润。在我看来，特斯拉正在创建一个生态系统，未来将通过更高的利润率和更忠诚的客户来产生可观的盈利能力。特斯拉正处于成长阶段。</blockquote> Rising Competition<blockquote>竞争加剧</blockquote> Rising competition is a serious threat despite Tesla's unique ecosystem. I think it is true that the legacy automakers are posing some risks to Tesla; however, I believe that the risk is not great enough to hinder Tesla’s growth. I do agree that more prominent competitors like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) do pose an immense threat, but I do not see this as the end of Tesla. In fact, I think both companies will thrive at the end of the day.<blockquote>尽管特斯拉拥有独特的生态系统，但日益加剧的竞争仍是一个严重威胁。我认为传统汽车制造商确实给特斯拉带来了一些风险；不过，我相信风险还没有大到阻碍特斯拉增长的程度。我确实同意大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等更突出的竞争对手确实构成了巨大的威胁，但我并不认为这是特斯拉的终结。事实上，我认为两家公司最终都会蓬勃发展。</blockquote> I will not go into details on why I believe that both Volkswagen and Tesla will succeed in the BEV market today because I will be focusing on why I think Tesla’s growth will not be affected by Volkswagen.<blockquote>我不会详细说明为什么我相信大众和特斯拉今天都会在纯电动汽车市场取得成功，因为我将重点关注为什么我认为特斯拉的增长不会受到大众的影响。</blockquote> First,the sheer size of the electric vehicle market&nbsp;is big enough to support multiple major players. In the age of ICE vehicles, Volkswagen was not the only major company. Similarly, I believe that the size of the EV market will support both Tesla, Volkswagen, and a few more companies. By 2025, the EV sales in the U.S. alone are expected to reach 6.9 million, far above 500,000 Tesla vehicle sales in 2020.<blockquote>首先，电动汽车市场的庞大规模足以支持多个主要参与者。在ICE汽车时代，大众并不是唯一的大公司。同样，我相信电动汽车市场的规模将支持特斯拉、大众和其他一些公司。到2025年，仅美国的电动汽车销量预计就将达到690万辆，远高于2020年50万辆的特斯拉汽车销量。</blockquote> Second, I believe Tesla has unique advantages like selling its FSD software for 10,000 dollars. We all know that selling EVs is not profitable yet, which makes Tesla selling its software extremely important. The Tesla brand is strong enough to sell an FSD software for 10,000 dollars. I believe that this advantage can not easily be implemented by other companies because it is the result of brand power and loyalty that comes from its ecosystem. By selling its software, Tesla can decrease the price of its vehicles, like in Japan and South Korea, while maintaining some levels of margin for growth Detering some threats from the competition.<blockquote>第二，我相信特斯拉有独特的优势，比如以10,000美元的价格出售其FSD软件。我们都知道销售电动汽车还没有盈利，这使得特斯拉销售其软件变得极其重要。特斯拉品牌强大到可以卖1万美元一个FSD软件。我相信这种优势不容易被其他公司实现，因为这是来自其生态系统的品牌力量和忠诚度的结果。通过出售其软件，特斯拉可以降低其汽车的价格，就像在日韩一样，同时保持一定水平的增长空间，阻止来自竞争的一些威胁。</blockquote> Data Advantage<blockquote>数据优势</blockquote> Data, without any doubt, is becoming the new oil, getting more valuable by the seconds. The company that can correctly control and utilize data will be the winner going forward, and the very company utilizing massive amounts of user data is Tesla. Unlike any other autonomous driving technology developers, users pay Tesla to provide the company with the necessary data to improve the autonomous driving system. Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Waymo uses specialized cars in heavily mapped areas to operate regional taxi networks, which costs money. However, Tesla’s customer, upon purchasing the vehicle, provides Tesla with valuable data for the company to process turning it into an autonomous vehicle technology. Also, the volume of the data Tesla can collect from its customers is simply unmatched. I think the advantage over the long term is obvious because the amount of data Tesla accumulates and utilizes will continue to far outpace any of its competitors potentially allowing Tesla to become one of the first companies to fully launch level 4 or above FSD.<blockquote>毫无疑问，数据正在成为新的石油，越来越有价值。能够正确控制和利用数据的公司将是未来的赢家，而利用海量用户数据的公司就是特斯拉。与其他任何自动驾驶技术开发商不同，用户向特斯拉付费，为该公司提供完善自动驾驶系统所需的数据。谷歌（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）的Waymo在地图密集的地区使用专门的汽车来运营区域出租车网络，这需要花钱。然而，特斯拉的客户在购买车辆后，向特斯拉提供了有价值的数据，供该公司处理将其转化为自动驾驶汽车技术。此外，特斯拉可以从客户那里收集的数据量是无与伦比的。我认为长期优势是显而易见的，因为特斯拉积累和利用的数据量将继续远远超过任何竞争对手，这可能使特斯拉成为首批全面推出4级或以上FSD的公司之一。</blockquote> Risk<blockquote>风险</blockquote> I think the most obvious risk to my investment thesis is bias. Although I do not own any Tesla shares today, I have a very positive view of this company and plan to purchase shares in the coming weeks as I reallocate a portion of my portfolio to growth and tech stocks; thus, I may have introduced significant bias in my article by downplaying the competitive risk that Tesla faces. Also, because of my bias, I may have overstated the brand power that Tesla has.<blockquote>我认为我的投资论文最明显的风险是偏见。尽管我目前没有持有任何特斯拉股票，但我对这家公司持非常积极的看法，并计划在未来几周内购买股票，因为我将部分投资组合重新分配到成长型和科技股；因此，我可能在文章中淡化了特斯拉面临的竞争风险，从而引入了重大偏见。另外，由于我的偏见，我可能夸大了特斯拉的品牌影响力。</blockquote> Other than my bias, I believe political risk concerning China is one of Tesla's greatest threats. Political tensions between the countries led by the United States and China, are growing. During the past weekend,the G7 meeting further solidified this tension&nbsp;as the group of 7 nations targeted China’s human rights and coronavirus problems. The politics may change consumer sentiment in China or lead to Chinese government risk. For example, the&nbsp;Chinese government accused Tesla of spying on China using its cameras.It is clear that tensions are worsening and geopolitical threats will not be easing any time soon causing immense risk to Tesla.<blockquote>除了我的偏见，我认为涉华政治风险是特斯拉最大的威胁之一。以美国和中国为首的国家之间的政治紧张局势正在加剧。在过去的周末，七国集团会议进一步巩固了这种紧张局势，因为七国集团将目标对准了中国的人权和冠状病毒问题。政治可能会改变中国的消费者情绪或导致中国政府风险。例如，中国政府指责特斯拉利用其摄像头对中国进行间谍活动。很明显，紧张局势正在恶化，地缘政治威胁不会很快缓解，给特斯拉带来巨大风险。</blockquote> Valuation and Financials<blockquote>估值和财务</blockquote> Multiple bearish arguments target that Tesla has an extremely high valuation at about 130 times the forward price to earnings. I believe that one must pay high prices for high-growth companies. Tesla is expected to grow its delivery volume by about 50% in 2021. I believe that his goal is achievable because Tesla is still selling less than 1 million vehicles a year, which is very small compared to competitors in the automobile industry. Also, the completion of Gigafactory Berlin and Austin later this year will contribute to the growth forecast. Finally, investors must take into account that Tesla is in its growth phases not growing profitability. As building EVs becomes profitable and Tesla enjoys the extra margin from its FSD software sale, profits have the potential to exponentially rise. Thus, I believe that the current argument on high valuation is not a huge concern. Investors need to look at Tesla as a high-growth company in its early stages.<blockquote>多个看跌论点的目标是特斯拉的估值极高，约为预期市盈率的130倍。我认为，高增长的公司必须付出高昂的代价。特斯拉预计2021年交付量将增长约50%。我相信他的目标是可以实现的，因为特斯拉一年的销量还不到100万辆，与汽车行业的竞争对手相比是非常小的。此外，今年晚些时候柏林和奥斯汀超级工厂的竣工将有助于增长预测。最后，投资者必须考虑到特斯拉正处于增长阶段，而不是盈利能力的增长。随着制造电动汽车变得有利可图，并且特斯拉从其FSD软件销售中获得额外利润，利润有可能呈指数级增长。因此，我认为目前关于高估值的争论并不是一个大问题。投资者需要将特斯拉视为一家处于早期阶段的高增长公司。</blockquote> Tesla's financials&nbsp;are fairly good suggesting that risks regarding financial health are limited. The company had about 17 billion dollars in cash and equivalents, which accounted for about 2.8% of the market cap. Tesla had a total asset of about 53 billion dollars and a total liability of about 28.5 billion dollars equating to a shareholder equity value of about 23 billion dollars and a liability to asset ratio (L/A) of about 53.7. The overall balance sheet poses no threat, and the immense cash pile is enough to support Tesla's growth; thus, I believe that Tesla's financials do not pose any threat to the company's future.<blockquote>特斯拉的财务状况相当良好，表明财务健康风险有限。该公司拥有约170亿美元现金及等价物，约占市值的2.8%。特斯拉的总资产约为530亿美元，总负债约为285亿美元，相当于股东权益价值约为230亿美元，资产负债率（L/A）约为53.7。整体资产负债表不构成威胁，庞大的现金储备足以支持特斯拉的增长；因此，我认为特斯拉的财务状况不会对公司的未来构成任何威胁。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> I believe that recent consolidation and weakness in Tesla is creating opportunities for long-term investors. Tesla is indeed unprofitable without regulatory credits and that competition is starting to heat up in the market. However, because Tesla is and was a growth company from the beginning, I believe that the profit levels today are acceptable. The company is simply choosing future growth over today's profits. Also, along with an EV market that can support multiple players, Tesla's unique ecosystem, brand loyalty, and data utilization will shield the company from experience any slow down. Rising competition is natural and should not be feared. Finally, the valuation and risk regarding China may be a concern; however, I believe, for reasons that I have discussed, Tesla is a buy today.<blockquote>我相信特斯拉最近的盘整和疲软正在为长期投资者创造机会。如果没有监管信用，特斯拉确实无法盈利，而且市场竞争开始升温。然而，由于特斯拉从一开始就是一家成长型公司，我相信今天的利润水平是可以接受的。该公司只是选择未来的增长而不是今天的利润。此外，除了可以支持多个参与者的电动汽车市场之外，特斯拉独特的生态系统、品牌忠诚度和数据利用率将使该公司免受任何放缓的影响。竞争加剧是自然的，不应该害怕。最后，中国的估值和风险可能令人担忧；然而，我相信，出于我已经讨论过的原因，特斯拉今天值得买入。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Recent Weakness Is An Opportunity<blockquote>特斯拉：近期的疲软是一个机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Recent Weakness Is An Opportunity<blockquote>特斯拉：近期的疲软是一个机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-28 14:53\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tesla has been declining during the recent months, creating opportunities for patient investors.</li> <li>Rising competition and profit concerns are not a problem for Tesla due to its key advantages.</li> <li>Tesla's unique ecosystem and the size of the market will allow Tesla to continue its growth despite rising competition.</li> <li>Although risks remain, I believe that Tesla is a long-term buy because the company is still in its growth phases.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707bb99dcaa93d75f576a78ef1ecd11c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>近几个月来，特斯拉一直在下跌，为耐心的投资者创造了机会。</li><li>由于特斯拉的关键优势，竞争加剧和利润担忧对其来说不是问题。</li><li>特斯拉独特的生态系统和市场规模将使特斯拉在竞争加剧的情况下继续增长。</li><li>尽管风险依然存在，但我相信特斯拉是长期买入的股票，因为该公司仍处于增长阶段。</li></ul>jetcityimage/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> Over the past few months, Tesla stock has been struggling to move upwards. This could be seen as normal since the stock saw a massive bull run in 2020 and some noticeable risks started arising. One of these risks was inflationary pressure leading to investors speculating that the FED will taper and raise rates earlier than expected. This fear caused the overall tech and growth sector to decline. However, the inflationary fears dragging the tech and growth sector have been weakening over the past few months. Although the actual inflation seen in the CPI data worsened year-over-year, investors are reacting less negatively to the news, lessening the pressure on overall tech and growth stocks. Also, the 10-year treasury yield is declining finally setting up a potential for a rotation back into tech and growth. Thus, as the overall market is turning favorable for tech and growth stocks, I would like to discuss one of the most famous growth stocks, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).<blockquote>过去几个月，特斯拉股价一直在努力上涨。这可以被视为正常，因为该股在2020年经历了大规模牛市，一些明显的风险开始出现。其中一个风险是通胀压力，导致投资者猜测美联储将比预期更早缩减和加息。这种担忧导致整个科技和增长行业下滑。然而，过去几个月，拖累科技和增长行业的通胀担忧一直在减弱。尽管CPI数据中的实际通胀同比恶化，但投资者对这一消息的负面反应较少，减轻了整体科技股和成长股的压力。此外，10年期国债收益率正在下降，最终为回归科技和增长领域奠定了基础。因此，随着整体市场转向有利于科技股和成长股，我想讨论一下最著名的成长股之一，特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）。</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Tesla recently has been under attack as investors started questioning valuations and competitive risks. Some bearish arguments pointed out that the competition was intensifying in the BEV (battery electric vehicle) industry, and that Tesla is still unprofitable without selling Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and carbon emissions credit. While I agree that these risks are legitimate and should be considered, I believe that these risks are insignificant to Tesla’s future opportunities. In fact, I think this short-term turmoil is only causing buying opportunities. Here’s why:<blockquote>随着投资者开始质疑估值和竞争风险，特斯拉最近受到了攻击。一些看跌观点指出，BEV（电池电动汽车）行业的竞争正在加剧，如果不出售比特币（BTC-USD）和碳排放额度，特斯拉仍然无法盈利。虽然我同意这些风险是合理的，应该考虑，但我认为这些风险对特斯拉未来的机会来说微不足道。事实上，我认为这种短期动荡只是造成了买入机会。原因如下：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Tesla is creating its own ecosystem that no other automakers can replicate.<blockquote><ol><li>特斯拉正在创建自己的生态系统，这是其他汽车制造商无法复制的。</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>In the age where data is the new oil, Tesla is the only automaker utilizing the valuable data.<blockquote><li>在数据就是新石油的时代，特斯拉是唯一一家利用宝贵数据的汽车制造商。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> Bears Say: Tesla Is Still Unprofitable<blockquote>看空者称：特斯拉仍未盈利</blockquote> By now, it is well known that Tesla’s profitability does not come from selling cars. Tesla, despite improvements over the years, still relies heavily on regulatory credits to generate income. I believe that this does not pose any problem. Tesla simply does not need to make money today; this may continue to be a threat in the short term, but I think the current profitability structure is fine from a long-term investor perspective. Tesla has been treading along the profitability breakeven point; I think Tesla is leveraging its ability to generate cash from selling regulatory credits to invest back into its growth. The BEV market is just getting started and as bears have pointed out, the competition is starting to roll in; thus, there is no reason for Tesla to sacrifice growth for profits today.<blockquote>到目前为止，众所周知，特斯拉的盈利能力并不来自于销售汽车。尽管多年来有所改善，但特斯拉仍然严重依赖监管信贷来创收。我相信这不会造成任何问题。特斯拉今天根本不需要赚钱；这在短期内可能会继续构成威胁，但我认为从长期投资者的角度来看，目前的盈利结构是好的。特斯拉一直在盈利盈亏平衡点上徘徊；我认为特斯拉正在利用其通过出售监管信贷产生现金的能力来重新投资于其增长。纯电动汽车市场才刚刚起步，正如看空者指出的那样，竞争已经开始滚滚而来；因此，特斯拉今天没有理由为了利润而牺牲增长。</blockquote> An example of Tesla focusing on growth instead of profits is Tesla’s commitment to making a&nbsp;25,000$ vehicle.This cheap vehicle will not be good for Tesla’s margins or net income; however, the vehicle will further strengthen Tesla’s ecosystem, which will be discussed later, and expand the overall BEV market. As the overall BEV market expands, the volume will soon follow, allowing Tesla to be more efficient with scale as the most expensive component in the vehicle, lithium-ion battery price decreases over time. Tesla’s strategy has been clear since the beginning: focus on growth. Nothing has changed but investors' expectations; profits will naturally follow as the market matures. Now is simply not the time to focus on profits.<blockquote>特斯拉关注增长而不是利润的一个例子是特斯拉承诺制造一辆25,000美元的汽车。这种廉价汽车对特斯拉的利润率或净利润没有好处；然而，该车将进一步加强特斯拉的生态系统（稍后将讨论），并扩大整体BEV市场。随着整个纯电动汽车市场的扩大，销量很快就会随之而来，使特斯拉能够通过规模化提高效率作为车辆中最昂贵的部件，锂离子电池的价格会随着时间的推移而下降。特斯拉的战略从一开始就很明确：专注于增长。除了投资者的预期，什么都没有改变；随着市场的成熟，利润自然会随之而来。现在根本不是关注利润的时候。</blockquote> Bloomberg: Quoting GM CEO Mary<blockquote>彭博社：引用通用汽车首席执行官玛丽</blockquote> EV margins will match what they are today for combustion-engine cars by the “mid or later part of the decade.” Furthermore, as the quote shows, EV profitability is not only Tesla’s problem. No automaker is making significant positive net income selling BEV vehicles today. Thus, Tesla's focus on growth and the economies of scale should not be criticized.<blockquote>到“本世纪中期或后期”，电动汽车的利润率将与目前内燃机汽车的利润率相当。此外，正如报价所示，电动汽车盈利能力不仅仅是特斯拉的问题。如今，没有一家汽车制造商通过销售纯电动汽车获得显着的正净利润。因此，特斯拉对增长和规模经济的关注不应受到批评。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27aa28f3efd41460dca185274ea936eb\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> As the picture above shows, Lithium-ion battery pack costs are continuing to decrease significantly, and as this trend accelerates, Tesla’s margin will naturally go up. Thus, Tesla’s best interest is still in growth and expansion rather than achieving limited profitability today.<blockquote>如上图所示，锂离子电池组成本正在持续大幅降低，而随着这一趋势的加速，特斯拉的利润率自然也就上去了。因此，特斯拉的最大利益仍然是增长和扩张，而不是今天实现有限的盈利。</blockquote> Unique Ecosystem<blockquote>独特的生态系统</blockquote> Moving on to my bullish argument, Tesla has a unique ecosystem that can not be replicated by any other legacy automobile manufacturers. To know the importance of an ecosystem, we need to look at Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). What makes Apple so different? Samsung (OTC:SSNLF)&nbsp;sells more phones than Apple, yet Apple makes more money, by far. Furthermore, iPhone does not have the highest specs. iPhones do not have the best camera (in terms of megapixels), biggest RAM, biggest storage, or best screen refresh rate. Then, why is Apple making so much money and why can't other manufacturers with similar technology replicate Apple’s success? The answer to this question, in my opinion, is that Apple has an ecosystem that can not be replicated by Samsung or any other phone maker. Consumers love Apple’s ecosystem that offers every service in a simple, immersive, and frictionless manner. Once a consumer enters this ecosystem, it is almost impossible to leave. Apple makes its own chips, operating system, music services, tablets, laptops, app stores, and many more services locking in loyal customers and selling products at higher margins. Then, what is Tesla’s ecosystem? It is still in the early stages, but Tesla is the only automaker that operates its own charging station allowing consumers to experience the frictionless ecosystem or connectivity. Tesla cars preheat the battery and get the battery ready for supercharging while the car locates the chargers and leads the driver to the superchargers. The ecosystem does not stop here, Tesla, like Apple, designs its own chips, own operating system, and autonomous driving technology, which creates an immersive and frictionless ecosystem like Apple. The software and charging experience is unmatched, and it is only getting better with the eventual rise of autonomous technology and rumored&nbsp;Tesla restaurants.<blockquote>继续我的看涨论点，特斯拉拥有独特的生态系统，任何其他传统汽车制造商都无法复制。要了解生态系统的重要性，我们需要看看苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）。是什么让苹果如此不同？到目前为止，三星（场外交易代码：SSNLF）的手机销量比苹果多，但苹果赚的钱更多。此外，iPhone没有最高的规格。iPhones没有最好的摄像头（就百万像素而言）、最大的内存、最大的存储空间或最好的屏幕刷新率。那么，为什么苹果赚了这么多钱，为什么其他拥有类似技术的厂商无法复制苹果的成功呢？在我看来，这个问题的答案是，苹果拥有三星或任何其他手机制造商都无法复制的生态系统。消费者喜欢苹果的生态系统，它以简单、身临其境和无摩擦的方式提供每一项服务。消费者一旦进入这个生态系统，几乎不可能离开。苹果生产自己的芯片、操作系统、音乐服务、平板电脑、笔记本电脑、应用商店以及更多锁定忠诚客户并以更高利润销售产品的服务。那么，特斯拉的生态系统是什么？目前仍处于早期阶段，但特斯拉是唯一一家运营自己的充电站的汽车制造商，让消费者体验无摩擦的生态系统或连接。特斯拉汽车预热电池并为超级充电做好准备，同时汽车找到充电器并引导驾驶员前往超级充电站。生态系统并不止于此，特斯拉和苹果一样，设计自己的芯片、自己的操作系统和自动驾驶技术，这就像苹果一样创造了一个沉浸式、无摩擦的生态系统。软件和充电体验是无与伦比的，随着自动驾驶技术和传闻中的特斯拉餐厅的最终崛起，这种体验只会变得更好。</blockquote> This ecosystem will not only make Tesla unique, but it will also prevent consumers from moving over to its competitors because for consumers, it's all about modernized simplistic design with a frictionless experience that feels luxurious. I can't imagine any other automaker that can replicate Tesla’s brand and ecosystem. No automaker today is even close to providing its own superchargers, autonomous driving technologies, and unique software. Plus, no legacy automakers are or can sell FSD software for additional ten thousand dollars. The brand power, in my opinion, is strong enough to minimize the threat from the competition.<blockquote>这个生态系统不仅会使特斯拉独一无二，还会防止消费者转向其竞争对手，因为对于消费者来说，这一切都是关于现代化的简单设计和无摩擦的奢华体验。我无法想象任何其他汽车制造商能够复制特斯拉的品牌和生态系统。如今，没有一家汽车制造商能够提供自己的超级充电站、自动驾驶技术和独特的软件。此外，没有一家传统汽车制造商愿意或能够以额外一万美元的价格出售FSD软件。在我看来，品牌力量足够强大，可以将竞争的威胁降至最低。</blockquote> Thus, I believe investors do not need to worry too much about net income as long as the operational efficiencies do not get significantly worse. Tesla, in my opinion, is creating an ecosystem that will generate significant profitability through higher margins and more loyal customers in the future. Tesla is simply in its growth phases.<blockquote>因此，我认为只要运营效率没有明显恶化，投资者就不需要太担心净利润。在我看来，特斯拉正在创建一个生态系统，未来将通过更高的利润率和更忠诚的客户来产生可观的盈利能力。特斯拉正处于成长阶段。</blockquote> Rising Competition<blockquote>竞争加剧</blockquote> Rising competition is a serious threat despite Tesla's unique ecosystem. I think it is true that the legacy automakers are posing some risks to Tesla; however, I believe that the risk is not great enough to hinder Tesla’s growth. I do agree that more prominent competitors like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) do pose an immense threat, but I do not see this as the end of Tesla. In fact, I think both companies will thrive at the end of the day.<blockquote>尽管特斯拉拥有独特的生态系统，但日益加剧的竞争仍是一个严重威胁。我认为传统汽车制造商确实给特斯拉带来了一些风险；不过，我相信风险还没有大到阻碍特斯拉增长的程度。我确实同意大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等更突出的竞争对手确实构成了巨大的威胁，但我并不认为这是特斯拉的终结。事实上，我认为两家公司最终都会蓬勃发展。</blockquote> I will not go into details on why I believe that both Volkswagen and Tesla will succeed in the BEV market today because I will be focusing on why I think Tesla’s growth will not be affected by Volkswagen.<blockquote>我不会详细说明为什么我相信大众和特斯拉今天都会在纯电动汽车市场取得成功，因为我将重点关注为什么我认为特斯拉的增长不会受到大众的影响。</blockquote> First,the sheer size of the electric vehicle market&nbsp;is big enough to support multiple major players. In the age of ICE vehicles, Volkswagen was not the only major company. Similarly, I believe that the size of the EV market will support both Tesla, Volkswagen, and a few more companies. By 2025, the EV sales in the U.S. alone are expected to reach 6.9 million, far above 500,000 Tesla vehicle sales in 2020.<blockquote>首先，电动汽车市场的庞大规模足以支持多个主要参与者。在ICE汽车时代，大众并不是唯一的大公司。同样，我相信电动汽车市场的规模将支持特斯拉、大众和其他一些公司。到2025年，仅美国的电动汽车销量预计就将达到690万辆，远高于2020年50万辆的特斯拉汽车销量。</blockquote> Second, I believe Tesla has unique advantages like selling its FSD software for 10,000 dollars. We all know that selling EVs is not profitable yet, which makes Tesla selling its software extremely important. The Tesla brand is strong enough to sell an FSD software for 10,000 dollars. I believe that this advantage can not easily be implemented by other companies because it is the result of brand power and loyalty that comes from its ecosystem. By selling its software, Tesla can decrease the price of its vehicles, like in Japan and South Korea, while maintaining some levels of margin for growth Detering some threats from the competition.<blockquote>第二，我相信特斯拉有独特的优势，比如以10,000美元的价格出售其FSD软件。我们都知道销售电动汽车还没有盈利，这使得特斯拉销售其软件变得极其重要。特斯拉品牌强大到可以卖1万美元一个FSD软件。我相信这种优势不容易被其他公司实现，因为这是来自其生态系统的品牌力量和忠诚度的结果。通过出售其软件，特斯拉可以降低其汽车的价格，就像在日韩一样，同时保持一定水平的增长空间，阻止来自竞争的一些威胁。</blockquote> Data Advantage<blockquote>数据优势</blockquote> Data, without any doubt, is becoming the new oil, getting more valuable by the seconds. The company that can correctly control and utilize data will be the winner going forward, and the very company utilizing massive amounts of user data is Tesla. Unlike any other autonomous driving technology developers, users pay Tesla to provide the company with the necessary data to improve the autonomous driving system. Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Waymo uses specialized cars in heavily mapped areas to operate regional taxi networks, which costs money. However, Tesla’s customer, upon purchasing the vehicle, provides Tesla with valuable data for the company to process turning it into an autonomous vehicle technology. Also, the volume of the data Tesla can collect from its customers is simply unmatched. I think the advantage over the long term is obvious because the amount of data Tesla accumulates and utilizes will continue to far outpace any of its competitors potentially allowing Tesla to become one of the first companies to fully launch level 4 or above FSD.<blockquote>毫无疑问，数据正在成为新的石油，越来越有价值。能够正确控制和利用数据的公司将是未来的赢家，而利用海量用户数据的公司就是特斯拉。与其他任何自动驾驶技术开发商不同，用户向特斯拉付费，为该公司提供完善自动驾驶系统所需的数据。谷歌（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）的Waymo在地图密集的地区使用专门的汽车来运营区域出租车网络，这需要花钱。然而，特斯拉的客户在购买车辆后，向特斯拉提供了有价值的数据，供该公司处理将其转化为自动驾驶汽车技术。此外，特斯拉可以从客户那里收集的数据量是无与伦比的。我认为长期优势是显而易见的，因为特斯拉积累和利用的数据量将继续远远超过任何竞争对手，这可能使特斯拉成为首批全面推出4级或以上FSD的公司之一。</blockquote> Risk<blockquote>风险</blockquote> I think the most obvious risk to my investment thesis is bias. Although I do not own any Tesla shares today, I have a very positive view of this company and plan to purchase shares in the coming weeks as I reallocate a portion of my portfolio to growth and tech stocks; thus, I may have introduced significant bias in my article by downplaying the competitive risk that Tesla faces. Also, because of my bias, I may have overstated the brand power that Tesla has.<blockquote>我认为我的投资论文最明显的风险是偏见。尽管我目前没有持有任何特斯拉股票，但我对这家公司持非常积极的看法，并计划在未来几周内购买股票，因为我将部分投资组合重新分配到成长型和科技股；因此，我可能在文章中淡化了特斯拉面临的竞争风险，从而引入了重大偏见。另外，由于我的偏见，我可能夸大了特斯拉的品牌影响力。</blockquote> Other than my bias, I believe political risk concerning China is one of Tesla's greatest threats. Political tensions between the countries led by the United States and China, are growing. During the past weekend,the G7 meeting further solidified this tension&nbsp;as the group of 7 nations targeted China’s human rights and coronavirus problems. The politics may change consumer sentiment in China or lead to Chinese government risk. For example, the&nbsp;Chinese government accused Tesla of spying on China using its cameras.It is clear that tensions are worsening and geopolitical threats will not be easing any time soon causing immense risk to Tesla.<blockquote>除了我的偏见，我认为涉华政治风险是特斯拉最大的威胁之一。以美国和中国为首的国家之间的政治紧张局势正在加剧。在过去的周末，七国集团会议进一步巩固了这种紧张局势，因为七国集团将目标对准了中国的人权和冠状病毒问题。政治可能会改变中国的消费者情绪或导致中国政府风险。例如，中国政府指责特斯拉利用其摄像头对中国进行间谍活动。很明显，紧张局势正在恶化，地缘政治威胁不会很快缓解，给特斯拉带来巨大风险。</blockquote> Valuation and Financials<blockquote>估值和财务</blockquote> Multiple bearish arguments target that Tesla has an extremely high valuation at about 130 times the forward price to earnings. I believe that one must pay high prices for high-growth companies. Tesla is expected to grow its delivery volume by about 50% in 2021. I believe that his goal is achievable because Tesla is still selling less than 1 million vehicles a year, which is very small compared to competitors in the automobile industry. Also, the completion of Gigafactory Berlin and Austin later this year will contribute to the growth forecast. Finally, investors must take into account that Tesla is in its growth phases not growing profitability. As building EVs becomes profitable and Tesla enjoys the extra margin from its FSD software sale, profits have the potential to exponentially rise. Thus, I believe that the current argument on high valuation is not a huge concern. Investors need to look at Tesla as a high-growth company in its early stages.<blockquote>多个看跌论点的目标是特斯拉的估值极高，约为预期市盈率的130倍。我认为，高增长的公司必须付出高昂的代价。特斯拉预计2021年交付量将增长约50%。我相信他的目标是可以实现的，因为特斯拉一年的销量还不到100万辆，与汽车行业的竞争对手相比是非常小的。此外，今年晚些时候柏林和奥斯汀超级工厂的竣工将有助于增长预测。最后，投资者必须考虑到特斯拉正处于增长阶段，而不是盈利能力的增长。随着制造电动汽车变得有利可图，并且特斯拉从其FSD软件销售中获得额外利润，利润有可能呈指数级增长。因此，我认为目前关于高估值的争论并不是一个大问题。投资者需要将特斯拉视为一家处于早期阶段的高增长公司。</blockquote> Tesla's financials&nbsp;are fairly good suggesting that risks regarding financial health are limited. The company had about 17 billion dollars in cash and equivalents, which accounted for about 2.8% of the market cap. Tesla had a total asset of about 53 billion dollars and a total liability of about 28.5 billion dollars equating to a shareholder equity value of about 23 billion dollars and a liability to asset ratio (L/A) of about 53.7. The overall balance sheet poses no threat, and the immense cash pile is enough to support Tesla's growth; thus, I believe that Tesla's financials do not pose any threat to the company's future.<blockquote>特斯拉的财务状况相当良好，表明财务健康风险有限。该公司拥有约170亿美元现金及等价物，约占市值的2.8%。特斯拉的总资产约为530亿美元，总负债约为285亿美元，相当于股东权益价值约为230亿美元，资产负债率（L/A）约为53.7。整体资产负债表不构成威胁，庞大的现金储备足以支持特斯拉的增长；因此，我认为特斯拉的财务状况不会对公司的未来构成任何威胁。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> I believe that recent consolidation and weakness in Tesla is creating opportunities for long-term investors. Tesla is indeed unprofitable without regulatory credits and that competition is starting to heat up in the market. However, because Tesla is and was a growth company from the beginning, I believe that the profit levels today are acceptable. The company is simply choosing future growth over today's profits. Also, along with an EV market that can support multiple players, Tesla's unique ecosystem, brand loyalty, and data utilization will shield the company from experience any slow down. Rising competition is natural and should not be feared. Finally, the valuation and risk regarding China may be a concern; however, I believe, for reasons that I have discussed, Tesla is a buy today.<blockquote>我相信特斯拉最近的盘整和疲软正在为长期投资者创造机会。如果没有监管信用，特斯拉确实无法盈利，而且市场竞争开始升温。然而，由于特斯拉从一开始就是一家成长型公司，我相信今天的利润水平是可以接受的。该公司只是选择未来的增长而不是今天的利润。此外，除了可以支持多个参与者的电动汽车市场之外，特斯拉独特的生态系统、品牌忠诚度和数据利用率将使该公司免受任何放缓的影响。竞争加剧是自然的，不应该害怕。最后，中国的估值和风险可能令人担忧；然而，我相信，出于我已经讨论过的原因，特斯拉今天值得买入。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436805-tesla-recent-weakness-is-an-opportunity\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436805-tesla-recent-weakness-is-an-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163132894","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla has been declining during the recent months, creating opportunities for patient investors.\nRising competition and profit concerns are not a problem for Tesla due to its key advantages.\nTesla's unique ecosystem and the size of the market will allow Tesla to continue its growth despite rising competition.\nAlthough risks remain, I believe that Tesla is a long-term buy because the company is still in its growth phases.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nOver the past few months, Tesla stock has been struggling to move upwards. This could be seen as normal since the stock saw a massive bull run in 2020 and some noticeable risks started arising. One of these risks was inflationary pressure leading to investors speculating that the FED will taper and raise rates earlier than expected. This fear caused the overall tech and growth sector to decline. However, the inflationary fears dragging the tech and growth sector have been weakening over the past few months. Although the actual inflation seen in the CPI data worsened year-over-year, investors are reacting less negatively to the news, lessening the pressure on overall tech and growth stocks. Also, the 10-year treasury yield is declining finally setting up a potential for a rotation back into tech and growth. Thus, as the overall market is turning favorable for tech and growth stocks, I would like to discuss one of the most famous growth stocks, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).\nInvestment Thesis\nTesla recently has been under attack as investors started questioning valuations and competitive risks. Some bearish arguments pointed out that the competition was intensifying in the BEV (battery electric vehicle) industry, and that Tesla is still unprofitable without selling Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and carbon emissions credit. While I agree that these risks are legitimate and should be considered, I believe that these risks are insignificant to Tesla’s future opportunities. In fact, I think this short-term turmoil is only causing buying opportunities. Here’s why:\n\nTesla is creating its own ecosystem that no other automakers can replicate.\nIn the age where data is the new oil, Tesla is the only automaker utilizing the valuable data.\n\nBears Say: Tesla Is Still Unprofitable\nBy now, it is well known that Tesla’s profitability does not come from selling cars. Tesla, despite improvements over the years, still relies heavily on regulatory credits to generate income. I believe that this does not pose any problem. Tesla simply does not need to make money today; this may continue to be a threat in the short term, but I think the current profitability structure is fine from a long-term investor perspective. Tesla has been treading along the profitability breakeven point; I think Tesla is leveraging its ability to generate cash from selling regulatory credits to invest back into its growth. The BEV market is just getting started and as bears have pointed out, the competition is starting to roll in; thus, there is no reason for Tesla to sacrifice growth for profits today.\nAn example of Tesla focusing on growth instead of profits is Tesla’s commitment to making a 25,000$ vehicle.This cheap vehicle will not be good for Tesla’s margins or net income; however, the vehicle will further strengthen Tesla’s ecosystem, which will be discussed later, and expand the overall BEV market. As the overall BEV market expands, the volume will soon follow, allowing Tesla to be more efficient with scale as the most expensive component in the vehicle, lithium-ion battery price decreases over time. Tesla’s strategy has been clear since the beginning: focus on growth. Nothing has changed but investors' expectations; profits will naturally follow as the market matures. Now is simply not the time to focus on profits.\nBloomberg: Quoting GM CEO Mary\n\n EV margins will match what they are today for combustion-engine cars by the “mid or later part of the decade.”\n\nFurthermore, as the quote shows, EV profitability is not only Tesla’s problem. No automaker is making significant positive net income selling BEV vehicles today. Thus, Tesla's focus on growth and the economies of scale should not be criticized.\n\nAs the picture above shows, Lithium-ion battery pack costs are continuing to decrease significantly, and as this trend accelerates, Tesla’s margin will naturally go up. Thus, Tesla’s best interest is still in growth and expansion rather than achieving limited profitability today.\nUnique Ecosystem\nMoving on to my bullish argument, Tesla has a unique ecosystem that can not be replicated by any other legacy automobile manufacturers. To know the importance of an ecosystem, we need to look at Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). What makes Apple so different? Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) sells more phones than Apple, yet Apple makes more money, by far. Furthermore, iPhone does not have the highest specs. iPhones do not have the best camera (in terms of megapixels), biggest RAM, biggest storage, or best screen refresh rate. Then, why is Apple making so much money and why can't other manufacturers with similar technology replicate Apple’s success? The answer to this question, in my opinion, is that Apple has an ecosystem that can not be replicated by Samsung or any other phone maker. Consumers love Apple’s ecosystem that offers every service in a simple, immersive, and frictionless manner. Once a consumer enters this ecosystem, it is almost impossible to leave. Apple makes its own chips, operating system, music services, tablets, laptops, app stores, and many more services locking in loyal customers and selling products at higher margins. Then, what is Tesla’s ecosystem? It is still in the early stages, but Tesla is the only automaker that operates its own charging station allowing consumers to experience the frictionless ecosystem or connectivity. Tesla cars preheat the battery and get the battery ready for supercharging while the car locates the chargers and leads the driver to the superchargers. The ecosystem does not stop here, Tesla, like Apple, designs its own chips, own operating system, and autonomous driving technology, which creates an immersive and frictionless ecosystem like Apple. The software and charging experience is unmatched, and it is only getting better with the eventual rise of autonomous technology and rumored Tesla restaurants.\nThis ecosystem will not only make Tesla unique, but it will also prevent consumers from moving over to its competitors because for consumers, it's all about modernized simplistic design with a frictionless experience that feels luxurious. I can't imagine any other automaker that can replicate Tesla’s brand and ecosystem. No automaker today is even close to providing its own superchargers, autonomous driving technologies, and unique software. Plus, no legacy automakers are or can sell FSD software for additional ten thousand dollars. The brand power, in my opinion, is strong enough to minimize the threat from the competition.\nThus, I believe investors do not need to worry too much about net income as long as the operational efficiencies do not get significantly worse. Tesla, in my opinion, is creating an ecosystem that will generate significant profitability through higher margins and more loyal customers in the future. Tesla is simply in its growth phases.\nRising Competition\nRising competition is a serious threat despite Tesla's unique ecosystem. I think it is true that the legacy automakers are posing some risks to Tesla; however, I believe that the risk is not great enough to hinder Tesla’s growth. I do agree that more prominent competitors like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) do pose an immense threat, but I do not see this as the end of Tesla. In fact, I think both companies will thrive at the end of the day.\nI will not go into details on why I believe that both Volkswagen and Tesla will succeed in the BEV market today because I will be focusing on why I think Tesla’s growth will not be affected by Volkswagen.\nFirst,the sheer size of the electric vehicle market is big enough to support multiple major players. In the age of ICE vehicles, Volkswagen was not the only major company. Similarly, I believe that the size of the EV market will support both Tesla, Volkswagen, and a few more companies. By 2025, the EV sales in the U.S. alone are expected to reach 6.9 million, far above 500,000 Tesla vehicle sales in 2020.\nSecond, I believe Tesla has unique advantages like selling its FSD software for 10,000 dollars. We all know that selling EVs is not profitable yet, which makes Tesla selling its software extremely important. The Tesla brand is strong enough to sell an FSD software for 10,000 dollars. I believe that this advantage can not easily be implemented by other companies because it is the result of brand power and loyalty that comes from its ecosystem. By selling its software, Tesla can decrease the price of its vehicles, like in Japan and South Korea, while maintaining some levels of margin for growth Detering some threats from the competition.\nData Advantage\nData, without any doubt, is becoming the new oil, getting more valuable by the seconds. The company that can correctly control and utilize data will be the winner going forward, and the very company utilizing massive amounts of user data is Tesla. Unlike any other autonomous driving technology developers, users pay Tesla to provide the company with the necessary data to improve the autonomous driving system. Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Waymo uses specialized cars in heavily mapped areas to operate regional taxi networks, which costs money. However, Tesla’s customer, upon purchasing the vehicle, provides Tesla with valuable data for the company to process turning it into an autonomous vehicle technology. Also, the volume of the data Tesla can collect from its customers is simply unmatched. I think the advantage over the long term is obvious because the amount of data Tesla accumulates and utilizes will continue to far outpace any of its competitors potentially allowing Tesla to become one of the first companies to fully launch level 4 or above FSD.\nRisk\nI think the most obvious risk to my investment thesis is bias. Although I do not own any Tesla shares today, I have a very positive view of this company and plan to purchase shares in the coming weeks as I reallocate a portion of my portfolio to growth and tech stocks; thus, I may have introduced significant bias in my article by downplaying the competitive risk that Tesla faces. Also, because of my bias, I may have overstated the brand power that Tesla has.\nOther than my bias, I believe political risk concerning China is one of Tesla's greatest threats. Political tensions between the countries led by the United States and China, are growing. During the past weekend,the G7 meeting further solidified this tension as the group of 7 nations targeted China’s human rights and coronavirus problems. The politics may change consumer sentiment in China or lead to Chinese government risk. For example, the Chinese government accused Tesla of spying on China using its cameras.It is clear that tensions are worsening and geopolitical threats will not be easing any time soon causing immense risk to Tesla.\nValuation and Financials\nMultiple bearish arguments target that Tesla has an extremely high valuation at about 130 times the forward price to earnings. I believe that one must pay high prices for high-growth companies. Tesla is expected to grow its delivery volume by about 50% in 2021. I believe that his goal is achievable because Tesla is still selling less than 1 million vehicles a year, which is very small compared to competitors in the automobile industry. Also, the completion of Gigafactory Berlin and Austin later this year will contribute to the growth forecast. Finally, investors must take into account that Tesla is in its growth phases not growing profitability. As building EVs becomes profitable and Tesla enjoys the extra margin from its FSD software sale, profits have the potential to exponentially rise. Thus, I believe that the current argument on high valuation is not a huge concern. Investors need to look at Tesla as a high-growth company in its early stages.\nTesla's financials are fairly good suggesting that risks regarding financial health are limited. The company had about 17 billion dollars in cash and equivalents, which accounted for about 2.8% of the market cap. Tesla had a total asset of about 53 billion dollars and a total liability of about 28.5 billion dollars equating to a shareholder equity value of about 23 billion dollars and a liability to asset ratio (L/A) of about 53.7. The overall balance sheet poses no threat, and the immense cash pile is enough to support Tesla's growth; thus, I believe that Tesla's financials do not pose any threat to the company's future.\nSummary\nI believe that recent consolidation and weakness in Tesla is creating opportunities for long-term investors. Tesla is indeed unprofitable without regulatory credits and that competition is starting to heat up in the market. However, because Tesla is and was a growth company from the beginning, I believe that the profit levels today are acceptable. The company is simply choosing future growth over today's profits. Also, along with an EV market that can support multiple players, Tesla's unique ecosystem, brand loyalty, and data utilization will shield the company from experience any slow down. Rising competition is natural and should not be feared. Finally, the valuation and risk regarding China may be a concern; however, I believe, for reasons that I have discussed, Tesla is a buy today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1199,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":22,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Tesla: Recent Weakness Is An Opportunity<blockquote>特斯拉：近期的疲软是一个机会</blockquote>

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