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2021-06-17

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Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote>

Summary Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise so

Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote>

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It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.<blockquote>如果您与Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）软件的用户交谈（我们已经这样做了），他们会告诉您该公司技术的主要好处是它能够将来自多个来源的数据汇集在一起并理解所有这些既快速又轻松。它不需要坐在地下室的大量业务或数据分析师来制作顶层大办公室的人们可以理解的报告。这意味着，如果部署正确，这些产品将提供分析公司的梦想，因为“提取、转换、加载”是新的和酷的时代——降低报告制作的成本，提高这些报告的可操作性。到目前为止，我们还没有和一个不认为该软件让他们的业务变得更好的用户交谈过。毫无疑问，有一些不满意的用户，但我们还没有与任何人交谈。</blockquote> Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.<blockquote>部分原因是管理团队自己创造的（“我们热爱散户投资者”），部分原因是该公司在作为一家私营、中央情报局支持的企业的漫长孕育期内培养了“黑魔法大师”的声誉，部分原因是由于时代精神，Palantir是一只非常受欢迎的股票，似乎也引起了股东和非股东的焦虑。去看看你最喜欢的股票板，看看尖叫声。我们选择的毒药是StockTwits上的PLTR板，就在这里。我们可以以此为例，说明人们对这种企业软件股票的兴趣异常高。它在该板上拥有16.8万名粉丝，与平台上的其他粉丝相比，这一数字是微软的一半，而且可能更相关，是当前最受欢迎的迷因AMC的一半以上。帖子绝对令人窒息。还是那句话，这是一家企业软件公司，而不是山寨币。</blockquote> If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.<blockquote>如果你拥有或者正在考虑这样做，我们劝你退后一步，冷静下来，冷静地看待这些数字和股票图表。这是我们的方法，它导致这个名字成为我们非常喜欢的名字。当股票暴跌时，我们会放松；如果它在未来几天和几周内上升，我们就会放松。我们认为，Palantir是一只非常强劲的长期持有股票。如果在你读完我们的分析后，我们可以给你留下一个想法，那就是：关注信号，忽略噪音。毕竟，这就是Palantir Technologies客户付费帮助他们做的事情。作为股东？股票可以支付你做同样的事情。</blockquote> PLTR Stock Price<blockquote>PLTR股价</blockquote> Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.<blockquote>我们先来看看PLTR的股价及其自去年直接上市以来的演变情况。简而言之，它相当不稳定。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\">Source: YCharts.com<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts.com</blockquote> It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).<blockquote>正是波动性导致了一些股票董事会的尖叫。但如果你退后一步，你会说，到目前为止，这是一次非常成功的直接上市，自那时以来，该股上涨了150%，而主要指数的总回报率为20%左右（我们使用SPDR标普500指数ETF和QQQ ETF上面分别作为S&amp;P 500和纳斯达克的代理）。</blockquote> If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.<blockquote>如果你看短期，自2021年2月高点以来，你会发现短期持有者有更多担忧的理由。这张图表从今年2月1日开始至今。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\">Source: YCharts.com<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts.com</blockquote> Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.<blockquote>由于不可避免地，许多人在接近运行顶部时买入，这意味着有许多持有者坐在亏损并希望复苏，可能还有许多人已经卖出，吸收了损失。和往常一样，如果你放大得太远，你可能会错过大局。我们相信Palantir股票有着非常光明的未来。</blockquote> Palantir Valuation<blockquote>Palantir估值</blockquote> By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.<blockquote>作为背景，这是PLTR上的数字。下表是不完整的，因为作为一个新问题，该公司的SEC报告需要时间来建立过去的画面。在3-4个季度的时间里，我们将能够更清楚地了解季度历史以及增长飞轮的运行情况。首先，收入降至EBITDA。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\">Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis<blockquote>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</blockquote> Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.<blockquote>现在，资本支出降至净债务和剩余履约义务。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\">Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis<blockquote>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</blockquote> The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.<blockquote>2021年上半年的特点是成长型股票大幅抛售，价值型股票是主要受益者。最近几周，市场对成长型公司变得更加友好，在我们看来，这种情况将持续到今年剩余时间。Palantir的估值倍数最近大幅上升，部分反映了市场对成长型公司的升温，部分反映了您在上面看到的PLTR自身增长率的改善。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\">Source: YCharts.com<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts.com</blockquote> Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock Xreallyworth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.<blockquote>人们对估值倍数感到非常愤怒——是股票X真的价值Y倍收入还是Z倍现金流？——但事实上，这并不科学。在成长型股票的牛市中，你增长得越快，利润越高，对未来增长的了解越多，你的股票相对于其他此类股票就越贵。在估值中，一切都是相对的，没有绝对。十年前，为一家软件公司支付10倍TTM收入被认为是昂贵的，而今天，大量交易的价格是40倍TTM收入以上。事情就是这样。</blockquote> Palantir today trades at the following multiples:<blockquote>Palantir今天的交易倍数如下：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\">Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis<blockquote>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</blockquote> The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.<blockquote>如果你认为折现现金流是衡量股票估值的任何方式，EBITDA和现金流倍数显然是荒谬的，但由于我们认为DCF与估值增长名称和公司标志的颜色一样相关，我们没有注意到这一点。对于一家拥有长期政府和企业合同的企业来说，TTM收入是35倍，具有产生会计和现金利润的能力，并且第一季度的收入比上一年增长了49%？在当前的市场背景下，这对我们来说似乎很好。</blockquote> Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?<blockquote>Palantir是长期股票吗？</blockquote> So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.<blockquote>那么，Palantir是一只好的长期股票吗？我们发现卖方分析师的目标帮助很少，12个月后的目标范围似乎在17-30美元之间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\">Source: TipRanks<blockquote>来源：TipRanks</blockquote> We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).<blockquote>我们认为答案在于进行两种实际分析（而不是仅仅决定股票可能上涨几美元或下跌几美元，这似乎是价格目标的基础！）.</blockquote> Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years<blockquote>Palantir 5年后股票预测</blockquote> Fundamental Analysis<blockquote>基本面分析</blockquote> The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked themupa little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).<blockquote>我们认为在这里有帮助的第一种分析是考虑基本面。在这里，我们听取了管理团队对可能的远期增长率的评论（他们的长期增长率目标是30%），但拒绝了他们向上一点是因为我们认为团队有点沙袋。然后，我们分配不断上升的EBITDA利润率，将其限制在过去对于运营良好的企业软件和服务业务来说是正确的水平——20%——如果PLTR将大部分服务工作移交给顾问合作伙伴，他们很有可能超越这一水平随着时间的推移，但目前我们假设终端EBITDA利润率为20%。然后，我们指定一个谨慎的EBITDA转换为无杠杆税前自由现金流（=EBITDA-资本支出-营运资本变化）的比率，以便大约20%的EBITDA以某种方式泄漏到乙醚中。（这只是一种保守地模拟现金生成的方法。如果20%在某个地方泄露，它会出现在资产负债表上的坏账或巨额预付款或其他东西中。是建模装置，不是真的）。</blockquote> Back to valuation multiples for a moment.<blockquote>暂时回到估值倍数。</blockquote> Where valuation multiplesdomatter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.<blockquote>其中估值倍数做物质在你买入股票和卖出股票之间的传播方向上。如果倍数扩大，这是你所希望的最大的免费资金来源。炼金术没有任何关于倍数膨胀的东西。如果它们压缩，你可以拥有一家财务报表表现出色的公司，但其股票可能根本不会上涨，或者更糟的是，会下跌。从基本面角度来看，这是长期投资者需要询问PLTR股票的关键问题。在我们看来，该公司将继续表现良好。回报的主要风险来自市盈率是扩大、压缩还是保持在水平。在我们的5年展望中，我们假设这些市盈率将有所下降。这不是基于任何美联储窃窃私语、通胀分析、货币流通速度调查或类似的东西。这只是一个适度谨慎的建模设备。倍数可能会上升很多，下降很多，保持持平。谁知道呢。但你必须提出一些假设来根据基本面预测股票，所以，这些是我们的工作假设。</blockquote> Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.<blockquote>将所有这些因素放在一起可能会导致价格从今天的24美元上涨到2024年的50美元左右，并在2025年上涨到60美元左右。现在，与他们中最好的人一起玩模因股票相比，这并不是很令人兴奋。但与大多数股票投资时期相比，三年内让你的钱翻倍并没有那么糟糕。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\">Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis<blockquote>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</blockquote> From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.<blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，我们认为主要风险相当简单。第一，公司能否走出自己的路，也就是说，它能否执行越来越多的纯软件模式，向集成商合作伙伴提供越来越多的服务。我们真的不希望看到该公司通过出售咨询时间来盈利——这是不可扩展的，因此不值得像上述假设软件商业模式的倍数那样。第二，这些倍数能持续下去吗？因此，每季度一次，在我们对业务的现场报道中，这就是我们所关注的。收入增长与毛利率与UFCF利润率（这告诉您有关收入类型及其估值潜力所需了解的所有信息），以及成长型公司的现行市场倍数。</blockquote> Chart Analysis<blockquote>图表分析</blockquote> Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been awholelot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.<blockquote>图表分析与PLTR的近期前景特别相关，而PLTR本身也与长期前景相关，因为对这个名字的普遍看法往往是高度分析性的，比如“它再也不会看到40美元了，哈哈”。尽管基本面有所改善且成长型股票市场正在解冻，但该股仍略低于25美元，这一事实并不是什么魔法。只是简单的需求和供给。下面的图表向您展示了在25美元邮政编码中有一个整体过去交易了很多股票。我们知道PLTR是零售业的最爱——上面的16.8万粉丝数量告诉你这一点。我们知道钻石手在散户投资者中是一个神话。当市场像2021年H1那样大幅下跌，然后回来时，你经常会发现人们非常高兴，只是为了赚回他们的钱，或者大部分钱。人们松了口气，以25-30美元的价格购买了PLTR，开始抛售，因为有一次他们看着17美元的手柄说，请不要现在给我看涨期权的保证金，非常好。</blockquote> This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.<blockquote>这张图表看起来非常复杂，但就像所有股票图表一样，一旦你解放思想并思考它告诉你市场参与者在做什么，它就不是真的了。</blockquote> If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you alotabout the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.<blockquote>如果你认为股票图表是废话，事实并非如此。如果准备得当，他们有时会告诉你很多关于一只股票未来的走向。所以，即使你认为这只是某种已经忘乎所以的幼儿园填色比赛，也请容忍我们。</blockquote> We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.<blockquote>我们认为PLTR上的这张图表很漂亮。因为我们认为它告诉你，在任何类型的市场顺风下，一旦PLTR升至30美元左右，它就可以飞得更远。更远。由于我们的基本面分析告诉我们50-60美元/股是可能的，我们的图表显示30美元是可以克服的，这对我们来说是另一个证据，表明这可能是一项非常好的长期投资。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\">Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView、Cestrian分析</blockquote> Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:<blockquote>现在，如果你是一个真正的技术分析师，你可以跳过下面的内容，因为要么（1）你已经想通了，要么更有可能（2）因为你是一个真正的技术分析师，你对图表有不同的更好的看法。我们不是技术分析师。我们只是喜欢摆弄克雷奥拉。但这是我们的看法：</blockquote> <ul> <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li> <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li> <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li> <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why welovestock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li> <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. Andthatmeans the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li> </ul> So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.<blockquote><ul><li>这张图表显示了从直接上市到今天的整个时期。</li><li>宽彩色水平带显示了所谓的斐波那契回撤位。这是一种复杂的说法，如果你看看该股从低点到高点的上涨，那么在回落的过程中，它可能会在什么水平找到支撑？由于（i）绝对数字和哺乳动物大脑结构之间的一些知之甚少（不，真的），更重要的是（ii）每个人都根据Fib水平进行交易的事实，你可以看到PLTR在下跌的过程中找到支撑，首先是在2月份短暂的50%回撤位（=损失了上涨时获得的价值的一半），然后在2月底迅速跌至61.8%回撤位，并在该回撤位附近徘徊，直到5月初，然后它真正开始挖掘，几乎触及78.6%回撤位。这是一次大规模的ol抛售，无论以何种标准衡量都太多了，这就是为什么你会在5月11日看到如此大而快速的逆转。考虑到小幅波动，该股此后一直在上涨。</li><li>图表右侧向上倾斜的粗黑线显示了整个五月和六月的支撑位上升。该股每天都在创下更高的低点，这是看涨的。</li><li>现在有趣的部分。这些从右向左突出的蓝色和黄色线告诉您在任何给定价格下股票的历史交易量。黑色粗横线即为“控制点”即。所有这些销售的重心。而且，你瞧，在上升的支撑线和控制线之间，你可以看到股票在上涨，并希望突破控制线的那个点。正如您所看到的，这是一条可以追溯到2020年11月的阻力或支撑线。这就是为什么我们爱股票图表，因为它们有时揭示的魔力。</li><li>Palantir股票目前正处于多头和空头之间的交火之中。每次价格上涨时，都会有很多人说，唷，加倍唷，我拿回了我的钱或大部分钱，然后卖掉了。这种急于清算的行为阻碍了该股的上涨。但在我们看来，待售股票的供应迟早会枯竭。因为，第一，市场对成长型股票的兴趣正在升温，第二，PLTR的基本面表现良好，市场情绪可能会有所改善。因此，如果该股能够上涨到你看到交易股票相对较少、失望的所有者相对较少的水平——30美元区域及以上——那么我们认为“待售”股票的持续供应可能会枯竭。和那个意味着该股从30-40美元上涨比从20-30美元上涨要容易得多。</li></ul>所以，我们的观点很简单。公司基本面强劲且不断改善。市场背景，成长股升温。股票图表显示，现在只要再往前一点，就像迷因兄弟会喜欢说的那样，“弱手”提供更多的待售股票，然后这只股票就可以真正上涨。</blockquote> Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?<blockquote>Palantir股票现在是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote> If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.<blockquote>如果您以40美元左右的价格购买了股票，而您最好的朋友变成了克星的经纪人打电话要求退还保证金，那么，您可能别无选择。但如果你在这件事上确实有选择，并且你的时间范围比周末更长（尽管有钻石手，这似乎是模因社区的前景），我们认为PLTR股票是一个响亮的买入。基本面良好，图表良好，市场正在改善，一旦该股开始走势，一大群散户投资者可能会突然对该股产生热情，一大群机构可能会在此盘整期间买入。购买。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-14 08:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.</li> <li>Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.</li> <li>In our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.</li> <li>Looking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.</li> <li>We remain at Buy on Palantir.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61d2356557cc39d32afc673a3ff65b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">kanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>尽管Palantir Technologies的股票引起了轩然大波，但它只是一家企业软件企业，而且是一家不错的企业。</li><li>财务基本面比该公司通常被认为的要好得多，而且我们认为股价处于有吸引力的买入点。</li><li>在我们看来，这个名字的关键是忽略你选择的股票板上的所有噪音。</li><li>展望五年后，我们认为这只股票可能会成为巨大的赢家，因此我们将这个名字保存在员工个人账户中。</li><li>我们维持对Palantir的买入评级。</li></ul>kanawatvector/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> Make Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise<blockquote>像Palantirian一样制作——关注信号，而不是噪音</blockquote> If you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.<blockquote>如果您与Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）软件的用户交谈（我们已经这样做了），他们会告诉您该公司技术的主要好处是它能够将来自多个来源的数据汇集在一起并理解所有这些既快速又轻松。它不需要坐在地下室的大量业务或数据分析师来制作顶层大办公室的人们可以理解的报告。这意味着，如果部署正确，这些产品将提供分析公司的梦想，因为“提取、转换、加载”是新的和酷的时代——降低报告制作的成本，提高这些报告的可操作性。到目前为止，我们还没有和一个不认为该软件让他们的业务变得更好的用户交谈过。毫无疑问，有一些不满意的用户，但我们还没有与任何人交谈。</blockquote> Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.<blockquote>部分原因是管理团队自己创造的（“我们热爱散户投资者”），部分原因是该公司在作为一家私营、中央情报局支持的企业的漫长孕育期内培养了“黑魔法大师”的声誉，部分原因是由于时代精神，Palantir是一只非常受欢迎的股票，似乎也引起了股东和非股东的焦虑。去看看你最喜欢的股票板，看看尖叫声。我们选择的毒药是StockTwits上的PLTR板，就在这里。我们可以以此为例，说明人们对这种企业软件股票的兴趣异常高。它在该板上拥有16.8万名粉丝，与平台上的其他粉丝相比，这一数字是微软的一半，而且可能更相关，是当前最受欢迎的迷因AMC的一半以上。帖子绝对令人窒息。还是那句话，这是一家企业软件公司，而不是山寨币。</blockquote> If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.<blockquote>如果你拥有或者正在考虑这样做，我们劝你退后一步，冷静下来，冷静地看待这些数字和股票图表。这是我们的方法，它导致这个名字成为我们非常喜欢的名字。当股票暴跌时，我们会放松；如果它在未来几天和几周内上升，我们就会放松。我们认为，Palantir是一只非常强劲的长期持有股票。如果在你读完我们的分析后，我们可以给你留下一个想法，那就是：关注信号，忽略噪音。毕竟，这就是Palantir Technologies客户付费帮助他们做的事情。作为股东？股票可以支付你做同样的事情。</blockquote> PLTR Stock Price<blockquote>PLTR股价</blockquote> Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.<blockquote>我们先来看看PLTR的股价及其自去年直接上市以来的演变情况。简而言之，它相当不稳定。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\">Source: YCharts.com<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts.com</blockquote> It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).<blockquote>正是波动性导致了一些股票董事会的尖叫。但如果你退后一步，你会说，到目前为止，这是一次非常成功的直接上市，自那时以来，该股上涨了150%，而主要指数的总回报率为20%左右（我们使用SPDR标普500指数ETF和QQQ ETF上面分别作为S&amp;P 500和纳斯达克的代理）。</blockquote> If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.<blockquote>如果你看短期，自2021年2月高点以来，你会发现短期持有者有更多担忧的理由。这张图表从今年2月1日开始至今。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\">Source: YCharts.com<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts.com</blockquote> Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.<blockquote>由于不可避免地，许多人在接近运行顶部时买入，这意味着有许多持有者坐在亏损并希望复苏，可能还有许多人已经卖出，吸收了损失。和往常一样，如果你放大得太远，你可能会错过大局。我们相信Palantir股票有着非常光明的未来。</blockquote> Palantir Valuation<blockquote>Palantir估值</blockquote> By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.<blockquote>作为背景，这是PLTR上的数字。下表是不完整的，因为作为一个新问题，该公司的SEC报告需要时间来建立过去的画面。在3-4个季度的时间里，我们将能够更清楚地了解季度历史以及增长飞轮的运行情况。首先，收入降至EBITDA。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\">Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis<blockquote>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</blockquote> Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.<blockquote>现在，资本支出降至净债务和剩余履约义务。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\">Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis<blockquote>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</blockquote> The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.<blockquote>2021年上半年的特点是成长型股票大幅抛售，价值型股票是主要受益者。最近几周，市场对成长型公司变得更加友好，在我们看来，这种情况将持续到今年剩余时间。Palantir的估值倍数最近大幅上升，部分反映了市场对成长型公司的升温，部分反映了您在上面看到的PLTR自身增长率的改善。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\">Source: YCharts.com<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts.com</blockquote> Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock Xreallyworth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.<blockquote>人们对估值倍数感到非常愤怒——是股票X真的价值Y倍收入还是Z倍现金流？——但事实上，这并不科学。在成长型股票的牛市中，你增长得越快，利润越高，对未来增长的了解越多，你的股票相对于其他此类股票就越贵。在估值中，一切都是相对的，没有绝对。十年前，为一家软件公司支付10倍TTM收入被认为是昂贵的，而今天，大量交易的价格是40倍TTM收入以上。事情就是这样。</blockquote> Palantir today trades at the following multiples:<blockquote>Palantir今天的交易倍数如下：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\">Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis<blockquote>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</blockquote> The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.<blockquote>如果你认为折现现金流是衡量股票估值的任何方式，EBITDA和现金流倍数显然是荒谬的，但由于我们认为DCF与估值增长名称和公司标志的颜色一样相关，我们没有注意到这一点。对于一家拥有长期政府和企业合同的企业来说，TTM收入是35倍，具有产生会计和现金利润的能力，并且第一季度的收入比上一年增长了49%？在当前的市场背景下，这对我们来说似乎很好。</blockquote> Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?<blockquote>Palantir是长期股票吗？</blockquote> So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.<blockquote>那么，Palantir是一只好的长期股票吗？我们发现卖方分析师的目标帮助很少，12个月后的目标范围似乎在17-30美元之间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\">Source: TipRanks<blockquote>来源：TipRanks</blockquote> We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).<blockquote>我们认为答案在于进行两种实际分析（而不是仅仅决定股票可能上涨几美元或下跌几美元，这似乎是价格目标的基础！）.</blockquote> Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years<blockquote>Palantir 5年后股票预测</blockquote> Fundamental Analysis<blockquote>基本面分析</blockquote> The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked themupa little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).<blockquote>我们认为在这里有帮助的第一种分析是考虑基本面。在这里，我们听取了管理团队对可能的远期增长率的评论（他们的长期增长率目标是30%），但拒绝了他们向上一点是因为我们认为团队有点沙袋。然后，我们分配不断上升的EBITDA利润率，将其限制在过去对于运营良好的企业软件和服务业务来说是正确的水平——20%——如果PLTR将大部分服务工作移交给顾问合作伙伴，他们很有可能超越这一水平随着时间的推移，但目前我们假设终端EBITDA利润率为20%。然后，我们指定一个谨慎的EBITDA转换为无杠杆税前自由现金流（=EBITDA-资本支出-营运资本变化）的比率，以便大约20%的EBITDA以某种方式泄漏到乙醚中。（这只是一种保守地模拟现金生成的方法。如果20%在某个地方泄露，它会出现在资产负债表上的坏账或巨额预付款或其他东西中。是建模装置，不是真的）。</blockquote> Back to valuation multiples for a moment.<blockquote>暂时回到估值倍数。</blockquote> Where valuation multiplesdomatter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.<blockquote>其中估值倍数做物质在你买入股票和卖出股票之间的传播方向上。如果倍数扩大，这是你所希望的最大的免费资金来源。炼金术没有任何关于倍数膨胀的东西。如果它们压缩，你可以拥有一家财务报表表现出色的公司，但其股票可能根本不会上涨，或者更糟的是，会下跌。从基本面角度来看，这是长期投资者需要询问PLTR股票的关键问题。在我们看来，该公司将继续表现良好。回报的主要风险来自市盈率是扩大、压缩还是保持在水平。在我们的5年展望中，我们假设这些市盈率将有所下降。这不是基于任何美联储窃窃私语、通胀分析、货币流通速度调查或类似的东西。这只是一个适度谨慎的建模设备。倍数可能会上升很多，下降很多，保持持平。谁知道呢。但你必须提出一些假设来根据基本面预测股票，所以，这些是我们的工作假设。</blockquote> Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.<blockquote>将所有这些因素放在一起可能会导致价格从今天的24美元上涨到2024年的50美元左右，并在2025年上涨到60美元左右。现在，与他们中最好的人一起玩模因股票相比，这并不是很令人兴奋。但与大多数股票投资时期相比，三年内让你的钱翻倍并没有那么糟糕。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\">Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis<blockquote>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</blockquote> From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.<blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，我们认为主要风险相当简单。第一，公司能否走出自己的路，也就是说，它能否执行越来越多的纯软件模式，向集成商合作伙伴提供越来越多的服务。我们真的不希望看到该公司通过出售咨询时间来盈利——这是不可扩展的，因此不值得像上述假设软件商业模式的倍数那样。第二，这些倍数能持续下去吗？因此，每季度一次，在我们对业务的现场报道中，这就是我们所关注的。收入增长与毛利率与UFCF利润率（这告诉您有关收入类型及其估值潜力所需了解的所有信息），以及成长型公司的现行市场倍数。</blockquote> Chart Analysis<blockquote>图表分析</blockquote> Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been awholelot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.<blockquote>图表分析与PLTR的近期前景特别相关，而PLTR本身也与长期前景相关，因为对这个名字的普遍看法往往是高度分析性的，比如“它再也不会看到40美元了，哈哈”。尽管基本面有所改善且成长型股票市场正在解冻，但该股仍略低于25美元，这一事实并不是什么魔法。只是简单的需求和供给。下面的图表向您展示了在25美元邮政编码中有一个整体过去交易了很多股票。我们知道PLTR是零售业的最爱——上面的16.8万粉丝数量告诉你这一点。我们知道钻石手在散户投资者中是一个神话。当市场像2021年H1那样大幅下跌，然后回来时，你经常会发现人们非常高兴，只是为了赚回他们的钱，或者大部分钱。人们松了口气，以25-30美元的价格购买了PLTR，开始抛售，因为有一次他们看着17美元的手柄说，请不要现在给我看涨期权的保证金，非常好。</blockquote> This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.<blockquote>这张图表看起来非常复杂，但就像所有股票图表一样，一旦你解放思想并思考它告诉你市场参与者在做什么，它就不是真的了。</blockquote> If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you alotabout the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.<blockquote>如果你认为股票图表是废话，事实并非如此。如果准备得当，他们有时会告诉你很多关于一只股票未来的走向。所以，即使你认为这只是某种已经忘乎所以的幼儿园填色比赛，也请容忍我们。</blockquote> We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.<blockquote>我们认为PLTR上的这张图表很漂亮。因为我们认为它告诉你，在任何类型的市场顺风下，一旦PLTR升至30美元左右，它就可以飞得更远。更远。由于我们的基本面分析告诉我们50-60美元/股是可能的，我们的图表显示30美元是可以克服的，这对我们来说是另一个证据，表明这可能是一项非常好的长期投资。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\">Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView、Cestrian分析</blockquote> Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:<blockquote>现在，如果你是一个真正的技术分析师，你可以跳过下面的内容，因为要么（1）你已经想通了，要么更有可能（2）因为你是一个真正的技术分析师，你对图表有不同的更好的看法。我们不是技术分析师。我们只是喜欢摆弄克雷奥拉。但这是我们的看法：</blockquote> <ul> <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li> <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li> <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li> <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why welovestock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li> <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. Andthatmeans the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li> </ul> So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.<blockquote><ul><li>这张图表显示了从直接上市到今天的整个时期。</li><li>宽彩色水平带显示了所谓的斐波那契回撤位。这是一种复杂的说法，如果你看看该股从低点到高点的上涨，那么在回落的过程中，它可能会在什么水平找到支撑？由于（i）绝对数字和哺乳动物大脑结构之间的一些知之甚少（不，真的），更重要的是（ii）每个人都根据Fib水平进行交易的事实，你可以看到PLTR在下跌的过程中找到支撑，首先是在2月份短暂的50%回撤位（=损失了上涨时获得的价值的一半），然后在2月底迅速跌至61.8%回撤位，并在该回撤位附近徘徊，直到5月初，然后它真正开始挖掘，几乎触及78.6%回撤位。这是一次大规模的ol抛售，无论以何种标准衡量都太多了，这就是为什么你会在5月11日看到如此大而快速的逆转。考虑到小幅波动，该股此后一直在上涨。</li><li>图表右侧向上倾斜的粗黑线显示了整个五月和六月的支撑位上升。该股每天都在创下更高的低点，这是看涨的。</li><li>现在有趣的部分。这些从右向左突出的蓝色和黄色线告诉您在任何给定价格下股票的历史交易量。黑色粗横线即为“控制点”即。所有这些销售的重心。而且，你瞧，在上升的支撑线和控制线之间，你可以看到股票在上涨，并希望突破控制线的那个点。正如您所看到的，这是一条可以追溯到2020年11月的阻力或支撑线。这就是为什么我们爱股票图表，因为它们有时揭示的魔力。</li><li>Palantir股票目前正处于多头和空头之间的交火之中。每次价格上涨时，都会有很多人说，唷，加倍唷，我拿回了我的钱或大部分钱，然后卖掉了。这种急于清算的行为阻碍了该股的上涨。但在我们看来，待售股票的供应迟早会枯竭。因为，第一，市场对成长型股票的兴趣正在升温，第二，PLTR的基本面表现良好，市场情绪可能会有所改善。因此，如果该股能够上涨到你看到交易股票相对较少、失望的所有者相对较少的水平——30美元区域及以上——那么我们认为“待售”股票的持续供应可能会枯竭。和那个意味着该股从30-40美元上涨比从20-30美元上涨要容易得多。</li></ul>所以，我们的观点很简单。公司基本面强劲且不断改善。市场背景，成长股升温。股票图表显示，现在只要再往前一点，就像迷因兄弟会喜欢说的那样，“弱手”提供更多的待售股票，然后这只股票就可以真正上涨。</blockquote> Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?<blockquote>Palantir股票现在是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote> If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.<blockquote>如果您以40美元左右的价格购买了股票，而您最好的朋友变成了克星的经纪人打电话要求退还保证金，那么，您可能别无选择。但如果你在这件事上确实有选择，并且你的时间范围比周末更长（尽管有钻石手，这似乎是模因社区的前景），我们认为PLTR股票是一个响亮的买入。基本面良好，图表良好，市场正在改善，一旦该股开始走势，一大群散户投资者可能会突然对该股产生热情，一大群机构可能会在此盘整期间买入。购买。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135926549","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.\nFinancial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.\nIn our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.\nLooking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.\nWe remain at Buy on Palantir.\n\nkanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images\nMake Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise\nIf you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.\nPartly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.\nIf you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.\nPLTR Stock Price\nLet's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.\nSource: YCharts.com\nIt's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).\nIf you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.\nSource: YCharts.com\nSince, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.\nPalantir Valuation\nBy way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.\nSource: YCharts.com\nFolks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock Xreallyworth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.\nPalantir today trades at the following multiples:\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.\nIs Palantir A Long-Term Stock?\nSo, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.\nSource: TipRanks\nWe think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).\nPalantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nFundamental Analysis\nThe first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked themupa little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).\nBack to valuation multiples for a moment.\nWhere valuation multiplesdomatter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.\nPut all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nFrom a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.\nChart Analysis\nChart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been awholelot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.\nThis chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.\nIf you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you alotabout the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.\nWe think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.\nSource: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:\n\nThis chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.\nThe wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.\nThe upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.\nNow the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why welovestock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.\nPalantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. Andthatmeans the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.\n\nSo, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.\nIs Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?\nIf you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2356,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}