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2021-06-21

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Stock market's most popular trade faces 'perfect storm'<blockquote>股市最受欢迎的交易面临“完美风暴”</blockquote>

Wall Street’s favorite trade of the year is facing a "perfect storm" as theFederal Reserveprepares t

Stock market's most popular trade faces 'perfect storm'<blockquote>股市最受欢迎的交易面临“完美风暴”</blockquote>

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Cyclicals include sectors like industrials, energy and financials, whose performance is tied to the whims of the economy.<blockquote>周四，即消息公布后的第二天，与防御性股票相比，周期性股票遭遇了一年多来最糟糕的一天，因为投资者担心央行的缩减可能会破坏经济。周期性行业包括工业、能源和金融等行业，其表现与经济的波动有关。</blockquote> A \"cyclical correction is now underway,\" wrote a team led by Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America.<blockquote>美国银行首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特内特领导的团队写道，“周期性调整正在进行中”。</blockquote> He noted this week’s hawkish shift by the Fed is \"bad news\" and adds to the troubles that were presented by excess positioning, China tightening and fading hopes of additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S.<blockquote>他指出，美联储本周的鹰派转变是“坏消息”，并加剧了头寸过度、中国紧缩以及美国额外财政刺激希望消退所带来的麻烦。</blockquote> The Fed on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate near zero and maintained its bond-buying program at a pace of $120 billion per month, but moved up the forecast for its first rate hike to 2023 from 2024. More members, but not a majority, said the first rate hike could occur in 2022. The central bank also teased an end to its asset purchase program, but did not give any specifics as to when the tapering might begin.<blockquote>美联储周三将基准利率维持在接近零的水平，并维持每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划，但将首次加息的预期从2024年上调至2023年。更多成员（但不是大多数）表示，首次加息可能会在2022年发生。央行还调侃结束资产购买计划，但没有给出何时开始缩减规模的任何细节。</blockquote> The Fed last year cut interest rates to near zero and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of assets to support the U.S. economy through its sharpest economic slowdown of the post-World War II era.<blockquote>美联储去年将利率降至接近零的水平，并承诺购买无限量的资产，以支持美国经济度过二战后最严重的经济放缓。</blockquote> The yield on the 10-year bond note fell to 1.45% on Friday in response to the Fed’s tightening plans. It hit a high of 1.75% on March 31.<blockquote>作为对美联储紧缩计划的回应，10年期债券收益率周五跌至1.45%。3月31日触及1.75%的高点。</blockquote> David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Rosenberg Research says that adjusted for interest rates, the S&amp;P 500 is 20% above its intrinsic value.<blockquote>Rosenberg Research首席经济学家兼策略师David Rosenberg表示，经利率调整后，标普500比其内在价值高出20%。</blockquote> He believes investors would be foolish to ignore the signal that real rates, or those adjusted for inflation, are sending to the stock market.<blockquote>他认为，投资者忽视实际利率或经通胀调整后的利率向股市发出的信号是愚蠢的。</blockquote> \"Overweighting&nbsp;defensive sectors and secular growth segments that tend to benefit&nbsp;by a sharp slowing in GDP growth, is a sound strategy,\" he wrote. \"At the same&nbsp;time, if the message from real rates proves&nbsp;prescient, investors will&nbsp;be well advised to trim their cyclical exposures.\"<blockquote>他写道：“增持往往受益于GDP增长急剧放缓的防御性行业和长期增长行业是一个合理的策略。”“与此同时，如果实际利率的信息被证明是有先见之明的，那么投资者将被强烈建议削减周期性敞口。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610518597439","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market's most popular trade faces 'perfect storm'<blockquote>股市最受欢迎的交易面临“完美风暴”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market's most popular trade faces 'perfect storm'<blockquote>股市最受欢迎的交易面临“完美风暴”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nFoxBusiness2021-06-21 11:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWall Street’s favorite trade of the year is facing a \"perfect storm\" as theFederal Reserveprepares to exit the emergency measures put in place during the pandemic, according to Bank of America.<blockquote>美国银行表示，随着美联储准备退出大流行期间采取的紧急措施，华尔街今年最受欢迎的交易正面临一场“完美风暴”。</blockquote> The Fed’s decision to end the easy money era of the pandemic sent shockwaves through the market and put the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its worst week since January.<blockquote>美联储结束疫情宽松货币时代的决定给市场带来了冲击波，并使道琼斯工业平均指数有望迎来自1月份以来最糟糕的一周。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks on Thursday, the day after the announcement, suffered their worst day in over a year when compared to defensive stocks as investors feared the central bank’s tapering could derail the economy. Cyclicals include sectors like industrials, energy and financials, whose performance is tied to the whims of the economy.<blockquote>周四，即消息公布后的第二天，与防御性股票相比，周期性股票遭遇了一年多来最糟糕的一天，因为投资者担心央行的缩减可能会破坏经济。周期性行业包括工业、能源和金融等行业，其表现与经济的波动有关。</blockquote> A \"cyclical correction is now underway,\" wrote a team led by Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America.<blockquote>美国银行首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特内特领导的团队写道，“周期性调整正在进行中”。</blockquote> He noted this week’s hawkish shift by the Fed is \"bad news\" and adds to the troubles that were presented by excess positioning, China tightening and fading hopes of additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S.<blockquote>他指出，美联储本周的鹰派转变是“坏消息”，并加剧了头寸过度、中国紧缩以及美国额外财政刺激希望消退所带来的麻烦。</blockquote> The Fed on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate near zero and maintained its bond-buying program at a pace of $120 billion per month, but moved up the forecast for its first rate hike to 2023 from 2024. More members, but not a majority, said the first rate hike could occur in 2022. The central bank also teased an end to its asset purchase program, but did not give any specifics as to when the tapering might begin.<blockquote>美联储周三将基准利率维持在接近零的水平，并维持每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划，但将首次加息的预期从2024年上调至2023年。更多成员（但不是大多数）表示，首次加息可能会在2022年发生。央行还调侃结束资产购买计划，但没有给出何时开始缩减规模的任何细节。</blockquote> The Fed last year cut interest rates to near zero and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of assets to support the U.S. economy through its sharpest economic slowdown of the post-World War II era.<blockquote>美联储去年将利率降至接近零的水平，并承诺购买无限量的资产，以支持美国经济度过二战后最严重的经济放缓。</blockquote> The yield on the 10-year bond note fell to 1.45% on Friday in response to the Fed’s tightening plans. It hit a high of 1.75% on March 31.<blockquote>作为对美联储紧缩计划的回应，10年期债券收益率周五跌至1.45%。3月31日触及1.75%的高点。</blockquote> David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Rosenberg Research says that adjusted for interest rates, the S&amp;P 500 is 20% above its intrinsic value.<blockquote>Rosenberg Research首席经济学家兼策略师David Rosenberg表示，经利率调整后，标普500比其内在价值高出20%。</blockquote> He believes investors would be foolish to ignore the signal that real rates, or those adjusted for inflation, are sending to the stock market.<blockquote>他认为，投资者忽视实际利率或经通胀调整后的利率向股市发出的信号是愚蠢的。</blockquote> \"Overweighting&nbsp;defensive sectors and secular growth segments that tend to benefit&nbsp;by a sharp slowing in GDP growth, is a sound strategy,\" he wrote. \"At the same&nbsp;time, if the message from real rates proves&nbsp;prescient, investors will&nbsp;be well advised to trim their cyclical exposures.\"<blockquote>他写道：“增持往往受益于GDP增长急剧放缓的防御性行业和长期增长行业是一个合理的策略。”“与此同时，如果实际利率的信息被证明是有先见之明的，那么投资者将被强烈建议削减周期性敞口。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-market-most-popular-trade-being-turned-upside-down\">FoxBusiness</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-market-most-popular-trade-being-turned-upside-down","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134946846","content_text":"Wall Street’s favorite trade of the year is facing a \"perfect storm\" as theFederal Reserveprepares to exit the emergency measures put in place during the pandemic, according to Bank of America.\nThe Fed’s decision to end the easy money era of the pandemic sent shockwaves through the market and put the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its worst week since January.\nCyclical stocks on Thursday, the day after the announcement, suffered their worst day in over a year when compared to defensive stocks as investors feared the central bank’s tapering could derail the economy. Cyclicals include sectors like industrials, energy and financials, whose performance is tied to the whims of the economy.\nA \"cyclical correction is now underway,\" wrote a team led by Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America.\nHe noted this week’s hawkish shift by the Fed is \"bad news\" and adds to the troubles that were presented by excess positioning, China tightening and fading hopes of additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S.\nThe Fed on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate near zero and maintained its bond-buying program at a pace of $120 billion per month, but moved up the forecast for its first rate hike to 2023 from 2024. More members, but not a majority, said the first rate hike could occur in 2022. The central bank also teased an end to its asset purchase program, but did not give any specifics as to when the tapering might begin.\nThe Fed last year cut interest rates to near zero and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of assets to support the U.S. economy through its sharpest economic slowdown of the post-World War II era.\nThe yield on the 10-year bond note fell to 1.45% on Friday in response to the Fed’s tightening plans. It hit a high of 1.75% on March 31.\nDavid Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Rosenberg Research says that adjusted for interest rates, the S&P 500 is 20% above its intrinsic value.\nHe believes investors would be foolish to ignore the signal that real rates, or those adjusted for inflation, are sending to the stock market.\n\"Overweighting defensive sectors and secular growth segments that tend to benefit by a sharp slowing in GDP growth, is a sound strategy,\" he wrote. \"At the same time, if the message from real rates proves prescient, investors will be well advised to trim their cyclical exposures.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}