wow amazing_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Gaggoo
2021-06-21

wow amazing

How Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble<blockquote>史蒂夫·科恩如何应对互联网泡沫的破裂</blockquote>

This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief ane

How Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble<blockquote>史蒂夫·科恩如何应对互联网泡沫的破裂</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

推荐
最新

暂无评论

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":167649227,"tweetId":"167649227","gmtCreate":1624267238169,"gmtModify":1634008673608,"author":{"id":3582272232021521,"idStr":"3582272232021521","authorId":3582272232021521,"authorIdStr":"3582272232021521","name":"Gaggoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1e37505d342fd0d2ea94216065db33","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>wow amazing</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>wow amazing</body></html>","text":"wow amazing","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167649227","repostId":1105691189,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105691189","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624266134,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105691189?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble<blockquote>史蒂夫·科恩如何应对互联网泡沫的破裂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105691189","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief ane","content":"This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief anecdote from my time at SAC Capital back in 2000:<blockquote>本周周四的故事时间是关于“耐心”的，我（这里是尼克……）将从2000年我在SAC Capital时的一个简短轶事开始：</blockquote> Just after the peak of the dot com bubble in March, it was not immediately clear which way the US equity market was headed.<blockquote>就在三月份互联网泡沫达到顶峰之后，人们并不立即清楚美国股市的走向。</blockquote> Many thought the momentum would return soon enough. Others were more cautious, but most bears had been wrong for years. It was therefore hard to take them seriously.<blockquote>许多人认为这种势头很快就会恢复。其他人则更加谨慎，但大多数空头多年来一直是错误的。因此，很难认真对待它们。</blockquote> Going into a Fed meeting day in mid-2000, Steve had set up his portfolio very short S&amp;P futures.<blockquote>2000年年中，进入美联储会议日，史蒂夫建立了他的投资组合，做空S&amp;P期货。</blockquote> Because every trader in the room was allowed to see his pad, we all followed suit. Everyone was max-out short, confident in Steve’s market call even though it wasn’t exactly clear what he saw.<blockquote>因为房间里的每个交易者都被允许看到他的垫子，所以我们都跟着做了。每个人都是最大限度的空头，对史蒂夫的市场看涨期权充满信心，尽管不清楚他到底看到了什么。</blockquote> Stocks opened up that morning, and then headed higher still.<blockquote>那天早上股市开盘，然后继续走高。</blockquote> The room was dead quiet, as every trading desk will be when experiencing sharp, sudden losses.<blockquote>房间里一片寂静，就像每个交易台在经历突然大幅亏损时一样。</blockquote> Then Steve did something I had never seen him do before: he left the desk and went downstairs to have lunch with his family.At the time, SAC shared space with GE Capital in a Stamford, CT office building. When I went down to the cafeteria to get lunch a little while later, I saw Steve chatting with his kids and wife while munching on some fish sticks. He didn’t really seem to have a care in the world.<blockquote>然后史蒂夫做了一件我从未见过他做的事：他离开办公桌，下楼和家人一起吃午饭。当时，SAC与GE Capital共用康涅狄格州斯坦福德的一栋办公楼。过了一会儿，当我去自助餐厅吃午饭时，我看到史蒂夫一边嚼着鱼条，一边和他的孩子和妻子聊天。他似乎真的不在乎这个世界。</blockquote> At 2:00pm, with Steve back on the desk, we all waited for the Fed decision.It was another rate hike. But instead of selling off, the S&amp;P just kept going up. The only sound in the room was Steve’s assistant calling out S&amp;P levels, each one higher than the last, her voice growing more urgent with each number. Had Steve misread the tape?<blockquote>下午2:00，史蒂夫回到办公桌前，我们都在等待美联储的决定。这是又一次加息。但标普非但没有抛售，反而继续上涨。房间里唯一的声音是史蒂夫的助手喊出标准普尔的水平，一个比一个高，她的声音随着一个数字变得越来越急迫。史蒂夫是不是看错了录像带？</blockquote> After about 15 minutes, though, the S&amp;P leveled out and started to drop.<blockquote>然而，大约15分钟后，标准普尔指数趋于平稳并开始下跌。</blockquote> First by just a little, but then it went into free fall. The whole firm’s P&amp;L swung from dangerously in the red to deeply profitable.<blockquote>一开始只是一点点，但后来就自由落体了。整个公司的损益从危险的亏损转为大幅盈利。</blockquote> At 4pm, with all his shorts covered, Steve stood up and addressed the room: “And that’s how you do it … I’m going home now”.We gave him a standing ovation.<blockquote>下午4点，史蒂夫穿着短裤站起来，对房间里的人说：“这就是你要做的……我现在要回家了”。我们起立为他鼓掌。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dc81a4bd27d4c16642589177ca9ad3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\">I’ve thought a lot about that day in the last 20 years, and not just because it so neatly encapsulates the experience of equity day trading in its late 1990s – early 2000s heyday.<blockquote>在过去的20年里，我对那一天想了很多，不仅仅是因为它如此巧妙地概括了20世纪90年代末至21世纪初全盛时期股票日交易的经验。</blockquote> It taught me that:<blockquote>它教会了我：</blockquote> #1) Conviction matters.<blockquote>#1）信念很重要。</blockquote> We used to have a debate on the desk at SAC: was Steve so good because he was already worth a billion dollars and could afford to take risk, or did his net worth come from his ability to only scale and stick with bets where he had the highest conviction? Days like the one I just described always made us realize it was the latter.<blockquote>我们曾经在SAC的办公桌上进行过一场辩论：史蒂夫之所以如此优秀，是因为他已经身价10亿美元，能够承担风险，还是他的净资产来自于他只扩大规模并坚持在他最有信心的地方下注的能力？像我刚才描述的那样的日子总是让我们意识到是后者。</blockquote> There is more to that point, though. Many years later, I met a data team that had done a deep diagnostic analysis of hundreds of hedge funds. They looked primarily at what separated top decile performing funds from the rest of the pack.<blockquote>不过，这一点还有更多。多年后，我遇到了一个数据团队，他们对数百家对冲基金进行了深度诊断分析。他们主要关注表现最好的十分之一基金与其他基金的区别。</blockquote> They found that much of the slippage in underperforming funds came from a myriad of small portfolio positions that collectively ate away at returns. Some were losers, yes, but many were winners that weren’t sized large enough to make a real difference in the portfolio. Top performing funds owned winners in size; lesser funds were involved as well, but only in a small way.<blockquote>他们发现，表现不佳的基金的下滑很大程度上来自于无数的小型投资组合头寸，这些头寸共同侵蚀了回报。是的，有些人是输家，但许多人是赢家，他们的规模不足以对投资组合产生真正的影响。表现最好的基金在规模上拥有赢家；涉及的资金也较少，但只是规模很小。</blockquote> No prizes for guessing why that happened: conviction.Mediocre funds had enough of an investment process to unearth good ideas, but not enough to size them correctly. They weren’t willing to make a larger bet because they knew they would not be able to patiently sit out any volatility that might arise if it were 5 percent of the portfolio rather than 0.5 percent.<blockquote>猜测为什么会发生这种情况没有奖励：信念。平庸的基金有足够的投资过程来发掘好的想法，但不足以正确地确定它们的规模他们不愿意下更大的赌注，因为他们知道，如果波动率是投资组合的5%而不是0.5%，他们将无法耐心地坐视不管。</blockquote> Takeaway: conviction and sizing are what separated Steve, and every other great investor I’ve ever met, from the merely “very good”. It’s not enough to find ideas that work. The real magic is in making them count.<blockquote>要点：信念和规模是史蒂夫和我见过的所有其他伟大投资者与仅仅“非常好”的区别。仅仅找到可行的想法是不够的。真正的魔力在于让它们变得有价值。</blockquote> #2: Use whatever mental hacks you need to foster patience.<blockquote>#2：使用任何你需要的心理技巧来培养耐心.</blockquote> Steve’s was getting off the desk for an hour. Other highly successful investors I’ve met over the years literally turned off their screens or took a symbol off their monitors.<blockquote>史蒂夫的已经离开桌子一个小时了。这些年来，我遇到的其他非常成功的投资者实际上关掉了屏幕，或者从显示器上取下了一个符号。</blockquote> This is not to say one can just blindly buy an asset and hold it whatever comes. Productive patience means following many rules. A few of my personal favorites:<blockquote>这并不是说一个人可以盲目购买一项资产并持有它。富有成效的耐心意味着遵循许多规则。我个人最喜欢的几个：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Don’t buy new lows.<blockquote><ul><li>不要买新低。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Don’t short new highs.<blockquote><li>不要做空新高。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Always scale in and out of positions.<blockquote><li>总是进出位置。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Set stop losses where you re-evaluate your point of view.<blockquote><li>在你重新评估你的观点的地方设置止损。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Always look for new ideas.<blockquote><li>总是寻找新的想法。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Admit when you’re wrong and move on.<blockquote><li>当你错了的时候承认，然后继续前进。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Takeaway: the story about Steve on Fed Day is not meant to celebrate blind patience, but rather to show how patience fits in the context of a broader, disciplined approach.If Steve had been wrong on that day, he would have still stuck to his process the next day and the day after that. No one has a 100 percent hit rate in this business.<blockquote>要点：美联储日关于史蒂夫的故事并不是为了庆祝盲目的耐心，而是为了展示耐心如何适应更广泛、更有纪律的方法。如果史蒂夫那天错了，他第二天和后天仍然会坚持他的流程。在这个行业，没有人有100%的命中率。</blockquote> Final thought: the ability to be patient is, in the end, always a function of conviction and environment. Since we have little control over environment, especially with capital markets, the only effective way to cultivate patience is to build and follow a process that increases conviction in the context of prevailing circumstances.<blockquote>最后的想法：耐心的能力最终总是信念和环境的函数。由于我们对环境（尤其是资本市场）几乎没有控制权，培养耐心的唯一有效方法是建立并遵循一个在当前环境下增加信念的过程。</blockquote> Ironically, low volatility markets such as what we have now demand more patience and conviction than when prices are choppier. Even a 1 percent position in a spicy name can meaningfully help portfolio returns when the VIX is at 40. But when the VIX is below 20 (today’s close was 18), it’s an entirely different game. The current environment demands a focused investment approach, not a scattershot one.<blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，像我们现在这样的低波动性市场比价格波动更大时需要更多的耐心和信念。当VIX为40时，即使持有一个辣名字1%的头寸也可以有意义地帮助投资组合回报。但当VIX低于20时（今天的收盘价是18），这是一个完全不同的游戏。当前的环境需要有针对性的投资方法，而不是漫无目的的投资方法。</blockquote> Yes, this is hard, but as Steve said, “That’s how you do it”.<blockquote>是的，这很难，但正如史蒂夫所说，“这就是你要做的”。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble<blockquote>史蒂夫·科恩如何应对互联网泡沫的破裂</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble<blockquote>史蒂夫·科恩如何应对互联网泡沫的破裂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-06-21 17:02\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThis week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief anecdote from my time at SAC Capital back in 2000:<blockquote>本周周四的故事时间是关于“耐心”的，我（这里是尼克……）将从2000年我在SAC Capital时的一个简短轶事开始：</blockquote> Just after the peak of the dot com bubble in March, it was not immediately clear which way the US equity market was headed.<blockquote>就在三月份互联网泡沫达到顶峰之后，人们并不立即清楚美国股市的走向。</blockquote> Many thought the momentum would return soon enough. Others were more cautious, but most bears had been wrong for years. It was therefore hard to take them seriously.<blockquote>许多人认为这种势头很快就会恢复。其他人则更加谨慎，但大多数空头多年来一直是错误的。因此，很难认真对待它们。</blockquote> Going into a Fed meeting day in mid-2000, Steve had set up his portfolio very short S&amp;P futures.<blockquote>2000年年中，进入美联储会议日，史蒂夫建立了他的投资组合，做空S&amp;P期货。</blockquote> Because every trader in the room was allowed to see his pad, we all followed suit. Everyone was max-out short, confident in Steve’s market call even though it wasn’t exactly clear what he saw.<blockquote>因为房间里的每个交易者都被允许看到他的垫子，所以我们都跟着做了。每个人都是最大限度的空头，对史蒂夫的市场看涨期权充满信心，尽管不清楚他到底看到了什么。</blockquote> Stocks opened up that morning, and then headed higher still.<blockquote>那天早上股市开盘，然后继续走高。</blockquote> The room was dead quiet, as every trading desk will be when experiencing sharp, sudden losses.<blockquote>房间里一片寂静，就像每个交易台在经历突然大幅亏损时一样。</blockquote> Then Steve did something I had never seen him do before: he left the desk and went downstairs to have lunch with his family.At the time, SAC shared space with GE Capital in a Stamford, CT office building. When I went down to the cafeteria to get lunch a little while later, I saw Steve chatting with his kids and wife while munching on some fish sticks. He didn’t really seem to have a care in the world.<blockquote>然后史蒂夫做了一件我从未见过他做的事：他离开办公桌，下楼和家人一起吃午饭。当时，SAC与GE Capital共用康涅狄格州斯坦福德的一栋办公楼。过了一会儿，当我去自助餐厅吃午饭时，我看到史蒂夫一边嚼着鱼条，一边和他的孩子和妻子聊天。他似乎真的不在乎这个世界。</blockquote> At 2:00pm, with Steve back on the desk, we all waited for the Fed decision.It was another rate hike. But instead of selling off, the S&amp;P just kept going up. The only sound in the room was Steve’s assistant calling out S&amp;P levels, each one higher than the last, her voice growing more urgent with each number. Had Steve misread the tape?<blockquote>下午2:00，史蒂夫回到办公桌前，我们都在等待美联储的决定。这是又一次加息。但标普非但没有抛售，反而继续上涨。房间里唯一的声音是史蒂夫的助手喊出标准普尔的水平，一个比一个高，她的声音随着一个数字变得越来越急迫。史蒂夫是不是看错了录像带？</blockquote> After about 15 minutes, though, the S&amp;P leveled out and started to drop.<blockquote>然而，大约15分钟后，标准普尔指数趋于平稳并开始下跌。</blockquote> First by just a little, but then it went into free fall. The whole firm’s P&amp;L swung from dangerously in the red to deeply profitable.<blockquote>一开始只是一点点，但后来就自由落体了。整个公司的损益从危险的亏损转为大幅盈利。</blockquote> At 4pm, with all his shorts covered, Steve stood up and addressed the room: “And that’s how you do it … I’m going home now”.We gave him a standing ovation.<blockquote>下午4点，史蒂夫穿着短裤站起来，对房间里的人说：“这就是你要做的……我现在要回家了”。我们起立为他鼓掌。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dc81a4bd27d4c16642589177ca9ad3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\">I’ve thought a lot about that day in the last 20 years, and not just because it so neatly encapsulates the experience of equity day trading in its late 1990s – early 2000s heyday.<blockquote>在过去的20年里，我对那一天想了很多，不仅仅是因为它如此巧妙地概括了20世纪90年代末至21世纪初全盛时期股票日交易的经验。</blockquote> It taught me that:<blockquote>它教会了我：</blockquote> #1) Conviction matters.<blockquote>#1）信念很重要。</blockquote> We used to have a debate on the desk at SAC: was Steve so good because he was already worth a billion dollars and could afford to take risk, or did his net worth come from his ability to only scale and stick with bets where he had the highest conviction? Days like the one I just described always made us realize it was the latter.<blockquote>我们曾经在SAC的办公桌上进行过一场辩论：史蒂夫之所以如此优秀，是因为他已经身价10亿美元，能够承担风险，还是他的净资产来自于他只扩大规模并坚持在他最有信心的地方下注的能力？像我刚才描述的那样的日子总是让我们意识到是后者。</blockquote> There is more to that point, though. Many years later, I met a data team that had done a deep diagnostic analysis of hundreds of hedge funds. They looked primarily at what separated top decile performing funds from the rest of the pack.<blockquote>不过，这一点还有更多。多年后，我遇到了一个数据团队，他们对数百家对冲基金进行了深度诊断分析。他们主要关注表现最好的十分之一基金与其他基金的区别。</blockquote> They found that much of the slippage in underperforming funds came from a myriad of small portfolio positions that collectively ate away at returns. Some were losers, yes, but many were winners that weren’t sized large enough to make a real difference in the portfolio. Top performing funds owned winners in size; lesser funds were involved as well, but only in a small way.<blockquote>他们发现，表现不佳的基金的下滑很大程度上来自于无数的小型投资组合头寸，这些头寸共同侵蚀了回报。是的，有些人是输家，但许多人是赢家，他们的规模不足以对投资组合产生真正的影响。表现最好的基金在规模上拥有赢家；涉及的资金也较少，但只是规模很小。</blockquote> No prizes for guessing why that happened: conviction.Mediocre funds had enough of an investment process to unearth good ideas, but not enough to size them correctly. They weren’t willing to make a larger bet because they knew they would not be able to patiently sit out any volatility that might arise if it were 5 percent of the portfolio rather than 0.5 percent.<blockquote>猜测为什么会发生这种情况没有奖励：信念。平庸的基金有足够的投资过程来发掘好的想法，但不足以正确地确定它们的规模他们不愿意下更大的赌注，因为他们知道，如果波动率是投资组合的5%而不是0.5%，他们将无法耐心地坐视不管。</blockquote> Takeaway: conviction and sizing are what separated Steve, and every other great investor I’ve ever met, from the merely “very good”. It’s not enough to find ideas that work. The real magic is in making them count.<blockquote>要点：信念和规模是史蒂夫和我见过的所有其他伟大投资者与仅仅“非常好”的区别。仅仅找到可行的想法是不够的。真正的魔力在于让它们变得有价值。</blockquote> #2: Use whatever mental hacks you need to foster patience.<blockquote>#2：使用任何你需要的心理技巧来培养耐心.</blockquote> Steve’s was getting off the desk for an hour. Other highly successful investors I’ve met over the years literally turned off their screens or took a symbol off their monitors.<blockquote>史蒂夫的已经离开桌子一个小时了。这些年来，我遇到的其他非常成功的投资者实际上关掉了屏幕，或者从显示器上取下了一个符号。</blockquote> This is not to say one can just blindly buy an asset and hold it whatever comes. Productive patience means following many rules. A few of my personal favorites:<blockquote>这并不是说一个人可以盲目购买一项资产并持有它。富有成效的耐心意味着遵循许多规则。我个人最喜欢的几个：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Don’t buy new lows.<blockquote><ul><li>不要买新低。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Don’t short new highs.<blockquote><li>不要做空新高。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Always scale in and out of positions.<blockquote><li>总是进出位置。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Set stop losses where you re-evaluate your point of view.<blockquote><li>在你重新评估你的观点的地方设置止损。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Always look for new ideas.<blockquote><li>总是寻找新的想法。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Admit when you’re wrong and move on.<blockquote><li>当你错了的时候承认，然后继续前进。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Takeaway: the story about Steve on Fed Day is not meant to celebrate blind patience, but rather to show how patience fits in the context of a broader, disciplined approach.If Steve had been wrong on that day, he would have still stuck to his process the next day and the day after that. No one has a 100 percent hit rate in this business.<blockquote>要点：美联储日关于史蒂夫的故事并不是为了庆祝盲目的耐心，而是为了展示耐心如何适应更广泛、更有纪律的方法。如果史蒂夫那天错了，他第二天和后天仍然会坚持他的流程。在这个行业，没有人有100%的命中率。</blockquote> Final thought: the ability to be patient is, in the end, always a function of conviction and environment. Since we have little control over environment, especially with capital markets, the only effective way to cultivate patience is to build and follow a process that increases conviction in the context of prevailing circumstances.<blockquote>最后的想法：耐心的能力最终总是信念和环境的函数。由于我们对环境（尤其是资本市场）几乎没有控制权，培养耐心的唯一有效方法是建立并遵循一个在当前环境下增加信念的过程。</blockquote> Ironically, low volatility markets such as what we have now demand more patience and conviction than when prices are choppier. Even a 1 percent position in a spicy name can meaningfully help portfolio returns when the VIX is at 40. But when the VIX is below 20 (today’s close was 18), it’s an entirely different game. The current environment demands a focused investment approach, not a scattershot one.<blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，像我们现在这样的低波动性市场比价格波动更大时需要更多的耐心和信念。当VIX为40时，即使持有一个辣名字1%的头寸也可以有意义地帮助投资组合回报。但当VIX低于20时（今天的收盘价是18），这是一个完全不同的游戏。当前的环境需要有针对性的投资方法，而不是漫无目的的投资方法。</blockquote> Yes, this is hard, but as Steve said, “That’s how you do it”.<blockquote>是的，这很难，但正如史蒂夫所说，“这就是你要做的”。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-steve-cohen-traded-bursting-dot-com-bubble?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-steve-cohen-traded-bursting-dot-com-bubble?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105691189","content_text":"This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief anecdote from my time at SAC Capital back in 2000:\nJust after the peak of the dot com bubble in March, it was not immediately clear which way the US equity market was headed.\nMany thought the momentum would return soon enough. Others were more cautious, but most bears had been wrong for years. It was therefore hard to take them seriously.\nGoing into a Fed meeting day in mid-2000, Steve had set up his portfolio very short S&P futures.\nBecause every trader in the room was allowed to see his pad, we all followed suit. Everyone was max-out short, confident in Steve’s market call even though it wasn’t exactly clear what he saw.\nStocks opened up that morning, and then headed higher still.\nThe room was dead quiet, as every trading desk will be when experiencing sharp, sudden losses.\nThen Steve did something I had never seen him do before: he left the desk and went downstairs to have lunch with his family.At the time, SAC shared space with GE Capital in a Stamford, CT office building. When I went down to the cafeteria to get lunch a little while later, I saw Steve chatting with his kids and wife while munching on some fish sticks. He didn’t really seem to have a care in the world.\nAt 2:00pm, with Steve back on the desk, we all waited for the Fed decision.It was another rate hike. But instead of selling off, the S&P just kept going up. The only sound in the room was Steve’s assistant calling out S&P levels, each one higher than the last, her voice growing more urgent with each number. Had Steve misread the tape?\nAfter about 15 minutes, though, the S&P leveled out and started to drop.\nFirst by just a little, but then it went into free fall. The whole firm’s P&L swung from dangerously in the red to deeply profitable.\nAt 4pm, with all his shorts covered, Steve stood up and addressed the room: “And that’s how you do it … I’m going home now”.We gave him a standing ovation.\nI’ve thought a lot about that day in the last 20 years, and not just because it so neatly encapsulates the experience of equity day trading in its late 1990s – early 2000s heyday.\nIt taught me that:\n#1) Conviction matters.\nWe used to have a debate on the desk at SAC: was Steve so good because he was already worth a billion dollars and could afford to take risk, or did his net worth come from his ability to only scale and stick with bets where he had the highest conviction? Days like the one I just described always made us realize it was the latter.\nThere is more to that point, though. Many years later, I met a data team that had done a deep diagnostic analysis of hundreds of hedge funds. They looked primarily at what separated top decile performing funds from the rest of the pack.\nThey found that much of the slippage in underperforming funds came from a myriad of small portfolio positions that collectively ate away at returns. Some were losers, yes, but many were winners that weren’t sized large enough to make a real difference in the portfolio. Top performing funds owned winners in size; lesser funds were involved as well, but only in a small way.\nNo prizes for guessing why that happened: conviction.Mediocre funds had enough of an investment process to unearth good ideas, but not enough to size them correctly. They weren’t willing to make a larger bet because they knew they would not be able to patiently sit out any volatility that might arise if it were 5 percent of the portfolio rather than 0.5 percent.\nTakeaway: conviction and sizing are what separated Steve, and every other great investor I’ve ever met, from the merely “very good”. It’s not enough to find ideas that work. The real magic is in making them count.\n#2: Use whatever mental hacks you need to foster patience.\nSteve’s was getting off the desk for an hour. Other highly successful investors I’ve met over the years literally turned off their screens or took a symbol off their monitors.\nThis is not to say one can just blindly buy an asset and hold it whatever comes. Productive patience means following many rules. A few of my personal favorites:\n\nDon’t buy new lows.\nDon’t short new highs.\nAlways scale in and out of positions.\nSet stop losses where you re-evaluate your point of view.\nAlways look for new ideas.\nAdmit when you’re wrong and move on.\n\nTakeaway: the story about Steve on Fed Day is not meant to celebrate blind patience, but rather to show how patience fits in the context of a broader, disciplined approach.If Steve had been wrong on that day, he would have still stuck to his process the next day and the day after that. No one has a 100 percent hit rate in this business.\nFinal thought: the ability to be patient is, in the end, always a function of conviction and environment. Since we have little control over environment, especially with capital markets, the only effective way to cultivate patience is to build and follow a process that increases conviction in the context of prevailing circumstances.\nIronically, low volatility markets such as what we have now demand more patience and conviction than when prices are choppier. Even a 1 percent position in a spicy name can meaningfully help portfolio returns when the VIX is at 40. But when the VIX is below 20 (today’s close was 18), it’s an entirely different game. The current environment demands a focused investment approach, not a scattershot one.\nYes, this is hard, but as Steve said, “That’s how you do it”.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}