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2021-07-20

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What If This Is The Economic End-Cycle<blockquote>如果这是经济周期结束怎么办</blockquote>

A few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged

What If This Is The Economic End-Cycle<blockquote>如果这是经济周期结束怎么办</blockquote>

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After all, yesterday the NBER determined that the covid recession - at just 2 months - was the fastest on record (even as 14 million Americans are out of a job and still collect unemployment benefits) and we are already well into the mid cycle, if not approaching the end.<blockquote>但如果他错了呢？毕竟，昨天NBER确定，covid衰退——仅2个月——是有记录以来最快的（尽管有1400万美国人失业，但仍在领取失业救济金），我们已经进入了周期的中期，如果不是接近尾声的话。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47d11bc07779a51cede0a73e7ddf627\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Also it is none other than Wilson's own employer Morgan Stanley, which has also said recently that this cycle will be \"hotter but shorter\" than usual.<blockquote>此外，正是威尔逊自己的雇主摩根士丹利，该公司最近也表示，这个周期将“更热但更短“比平常多了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Does it not stand to reason then, that the economic cycle is now so truncated - courtesy of $30 trillion in global stimulus - that we have blasted right through the midcycle phase and are now nearing the end?<blockquote>那么，由于30万亿美元的全球刺激计划，经济周期现在如此缩短，以至于我们已经度过了周期中期阶段，现在接近尾声，这难道不合理吗？</blockquote> That is the question Deutsche Bank's credit strategist Jim Reid asked overnight, when he described this recovery as \"undoubtedly the most unusual in history with many sectors of the economy already running ahead of their pre-recession trend\" even though several serviced based ones are still well behind though. More importantly, according to Reid and DB economists,the output and employment gap will likely close in the next couple of quarters which will be the quickest for both in observable economic history.<blockquote>这是德意志银行信贷策略师吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)隔夜提出的问题，他将这次复苏描述为“无疑是历史上最不寻常的，许多经济部门已经领先于衰退前的趋势”，尽管一些服务型部门仍然落后。更重要的是，根据Reid和DB经济学家的说法，产出和就业差距可能会在未来几个季度缩小，这将是可观察到的经济史上最快的。</blockquote> Reid then takes a look at where real GDP, nominal GDP, CPI, unemployment, retail sales, equities, household wealth, housing, treasuries and commodities are against all other recoveries for most variables goes back over 100 years. The chart below shows real GDP and as Reid explains, \"for most of these, this current post covid recovery is near the top\"making this recovery neck and neck with the fastest post-WWII expansion.<blockquote>然后，里德研究了实际GDP、名义GDP、CPI、失业率、零售销售、股票、家庭财富、住房、国债和大宗商品与100多年前大多数变量的所有其他复苏相比的情况。下图显示了实际GDP，正如里德所解释的那样，“对于其中大多数来说，当前的新冠疫情后复苏已接近顶峰”使这种复苏与二战后最快的扩张不相上下。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48279d702e3f7b92c743f063b26661ad\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As Reid puts it, \"clearly this cycle saw a big drawdown due to the pandemic but so did the GFC and its notable that the post-GFC recovery was around the weakest at the same stage\" which begs the question: \"should this be seen as the start of a new cycle or a continuation of the last cycle after a period of covid related hibernation?The answer to this will give us clues as to how long this cycle lasts, future Fed activity, and on the inflationary consequences of the current strong rebound.\"<blockquote>正如里德所说，“很明显，由于疫情，这个周期出现了大幅下降，但GFC也是如此，值得注意的是，后GFC时代的复苏在同一阶段是最弱的”，这就引出了一个问题：“这应该被视为一个新周期的开始，还是在一段与covid相关的冬眠期后上一个周期的延续？这个问题的答案将为我们提供线索，让我们了解这个周期会持续多久、美联储未来的活动以及当前强劲反弹的通胀后果。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat If This Is The Economic End-Cycle<blockquote>如果这是经济周期结束怎么办</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 22:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged as the biggest Wall Street bear warning that the \"rolling corrections\" in themarket presage a 10-20% drop in stocks, summarized the current economic state simply as \"mid cycle\"...<blockquote>几个月前，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)最近也成为华尔街最大的空头警告称，市场的“滚动调整”预示着股市将下跌10-20%，他将当前的经济状况简单地总结为“中期周期”……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">... which of course is the best place to be, as the initial euphoric surge higher in stocks tapers to a slow and steady grind as the economy chugs along at a modest pace.<blockquote>...这当然是最好的地方，因为随着经济以温和的速度突突前进，股市最初的兴奋飙升逐渐减弱为缓慢而稳定的研磨。</blockquote> But what if he is wrong? After all, yesterday the NBER determined that the covid recession - at just 2 months - was the fastest on record (even as 14 million Americans are out of a job and still collect unemployment benefits) and we are already well into the mid cycle, if not approaching the end.<blockquote>但如果他错了呢？毕竟，昨天NBER确定，covid衰退——仅2个月——是有记录以来最快的（尽管有1400万美国人失业，但仍在领取失业救济金），我们已经进入了周期的中期，如果不是接近尾声的话。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47d11bc07779a51cede0a73e7ddf627\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Also it is none other than Wilson's own employer Morgan Stanley, which has also said recently that this cycle will be \"hotter but shorter\" than usual.<blockquote>此外，正是威尔逊自己的雇主摩根士丹利，该公司最近也表示，这个周期将“更热但更短“比平常多了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Does it not stand to reason then, that the economic cycle is now so truncated - courtesy of $30 trillion in global stimulus - that we have blasted right through the midcycle phase and are now nearing the end?<blockquote>那么，由于30万亿美元的全球刺激计划，经济周期现在如此缩短，以至于我们已经度过了周期中期阶段，现在接近尾声，这难道不合理吗？</blockquote> That is the question Deutsche Bank's credit strategist Jim Reid asked overnight, when he described this recovery as \"undoubtedly the most unusual in history with many sectors of the economy already running ahead of their pre-recession trend\" even though several serviced based ones are still well behind though. More importantly, according to Reid and DB economists,the output and employment gap will likely close in the next couple of quarters which will be the quickest for both in observable economic history.<blockquote>这是德意志银行信贷策略师吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)隔夜提出的问题，他将这次复苏描述为“无疑是历史上最不寻常的，许多经济部门已经领先于衰退前的趋势”，尽管一些服务型部门仍然落后。更重要的是，根据Reid和DB经济学家的说法，产出和就业差距可能会在未来几个季度缩小，这将是可观察到的经济史上最快的。</blockquote> Reid then takes a look at where real GDP, nominal GDP, CPI, unemployment, retail sales, equities, household wealth, housing, treasuries and commodities are against all other recoveries for most variables goes back over 100 years. The chart below shows real GDP and as Reid explains, \"for most of these, this current post covid recovery is near the top\"making this recovery neck and neck with the fastest post-WWII expansion.<blockquote>然后，里德研究了实际GDP、名义GDP、CPI、失业率、零售销售、股票、家庭财富、住房、国债和大宗商品与100多年前大多数变量的所有其他复苏相比的情况。下图显示了实际GDP，正如里德所解释的那样，“对于其中大多数来说，当前的新冠疫情后复苏已接近顶峰”使这种复苏与二战后最快的扩张不相上下。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48279d702e3f7b92c743f063b26661ad\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As Reid puts it, \"clearly this cycle saw a big drawdown due to the pandemic but so did the GFC and its notable that the post-GFC recovery was around the weakest at the same stage\" which begs the question: \"should this be seen as the start of a new cycle or a continuation of the last cycle after a period of covid related hibernation?The answer to this will give us clues as to how long this cycle lasts, future Fed activity, and on the inflationary consequences of the current strong rebound.\"<blockquote>正如里德所说，“很明显，由于疫情，这个周期出现了大幅下降，但GFC也是如此，值得注意的是，后GFC时代的复苏在同一阶段是最弱的”，这就引出了一个问题：“这应该被视为一个新周期的开始，还是在一段与covid相关的冬眠期后上一个周期的延续？这个问题的答案将为我们提供线索，让我们了解这个周期会持续多久、美联储未来的活动以及当前强劲反弹的通胀后果。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-if-economic-end-cycle\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-if-economic-end-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184882386","content_text":"A few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged as the biggest Wall Street bear warning that the \"rolling corrections\" in themarket presage a 10-20% drop in stocks, summarized the current economic state simply as \"mid cycle\"...\n... which of course is the best place to be, as the initial euphoric surge higher in stocks tapers to a slow and steady grind as the economy chugs along at a modest pace.\nBut what if he is wrong? After all, yesterday the NBER determined that the covid recession - at just 2 months - was the fastest on record (even as 14 million Americans are out of a job and still collect unemployment benefits) and we are already well into the mid cycle, if not approaching the end.\nAlso it is none other than Wilson's own employer Morgan Stanley, which has also said recently that this cycle will be \"hotter but shorter\" than usual.\n\nDoes it not stand to reason then, that the economic cycle is now so truncated - courtesy of $30 trillion in global stimulus - that we have blasted right through the midcycle phase and are now nearing the end?\nThat is the question Deutsche Bank's credit strategist Jim Reid asked overnight, when he described this recovery as \"undoubtedly the most unusual in history with many sectors of the economy already running ahead of their pre-recession trend\" even though several serviced based ones are still well behind though. More importantly, according to Reid and DB economists,the output and employment gap will likely close in the next couple of quarters which will be the quickest for both in observable economic history.\nReid then takes a look at where real GDP, nominal GDP, CPI, unemployment, retail sales, equities, household wealth, housing, treasuries and commodities are against all other recoveries for most variables goes back over 100 years. The chart below shows real GDP and as Reid explains, \"for most of these, this current post covid recovery is near the top\"making this recovery neck and neck with the fastest post-WWII expansion.\nAs Reid puts it, \"clearly this cycle saw a big drawdown due to the pandemic but so did the GFC and its notable that the post-GFC recovery was around the weakest at the same stage\" which begs the question: \"should this be seen as the start of a new cycle or a continuation of the last cycle after a period of covid related hibernation?The answer to this will give us clues as to how long this cycle lasts, future Fed activity, and on the inflationary consequences of the current strong rebound.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1518,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}