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2021-07-20

Goldman Says "Don't Buy This Dip" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛表示“不要逢低买入”，原因如下...</blockquote>

At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we

Goldman Says "Don't Buy This Dip" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛表示“不要逢低买入”，原因如下...</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":178316927,"tweetId":"178316927","gmtCreate":1626788164569,"gmtModify":1633771048544,"author":{"id":3572083328749084,"idStr":"3572083328749084","authorId":3572083328749084,"authorIdStr":"3572083328749084","name":"kianfoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178316927","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛表示“不要逢低买入”，原因如下...</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗洛德（John Flood）正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前18天传统上是市场最强劲的时期...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后预测空头将不得不回补，在此期间，我们看到16个交易日中有13个交易日创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去3天里，当S&amp;P加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，并在周一的可怕溃败中达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济正直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货反弹，交易者明显表现出抓住几个月来最快下跌的刀的愿望，我们惊讶地发现，正确预测7月上半月市场上涨的约翰·弗洛德(John Flood)现在已经完全翻转了，并在隔夜发表的一份说明中写道“不要买这个蘸酱。”他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我是一个持续的逢低买入者，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱的磁带做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇论文越来越难从我的座位上放置（在上周与发行相关的一些波涛汹涌的px行动之后）。99%的S&amp;P 500公司将进入下周的回购封锁期，供应方面的量化流动仍然不对称（也就是CTA卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是收益期最繁忙的两周。随着FAAMG综合体背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，7月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售出价正在减弱）。从1年的回顾来看，高频长度最近有了显著的增长，但从3年的基础上来看，净和毛都远高于第50百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。在中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国ADR后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都认为10年期国债收益率将在2021年首次远低于200日均线1.26。没有必要按下恐慌按钮，但我计划在接下来的几次会议中耐心购买门票。以下是10个关键看跌洪水正在监测的事态发展：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1)周末的Covid头条新闻是我在2021年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个...</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增超过60%，超过全球16%的增幅。FDA前局长斯科特·戈特利布(Scott Gottlieb)表示，Delta病例可能被低估。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估”了COVID delta在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>疾病预防控制中心警告称，随着该国接种率较低地区的病例、住院和死亡人数上升，将出现“未接种疫苗的大流行”。BBG</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠疫情统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在东京奥运会预计开始前几天，第一批东京奥运会运动员的新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出奥运会的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅行者都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这张纸越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月底尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3)第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们要期待好消息，但不要指望这些好消息会得到回报。又名卖方的估计仍然太低，头寸仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行财报（基本上全面上涨）以来，银行指数已下跌355个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购封锁期，这将持续到2011年7月23日....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流是不对称的...（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6）市场广度继续恶化（上个月ATH为100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7)又名，如果没有FAAMG最近的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8)与中国的紧张局势不断升级，我们看到ADR的风险持续降低：白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。纽约时报</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9)零售支持MTD一直在减弱....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）回顾1年，基本L/S定位有了显着提高....回顾3年，仍然很高....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛表示“不要逢低买入”，原因如下...</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗洛德（John Flood）正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前18天传统上是市场最强劲的时期...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后预测空头将不得不回补，在此期间，我们看到16个交易日中有13个交易日创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去3天里，当S&amp;P加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，并在周一的可怕溃败中达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济正直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货反弹，交易者明显表现出抓住几个月来最快下跌的刀的愿望，我们惊讶地发现，正确预测7月上半月市场上涨的约翰·弗洛德(John Flood)现在已经完全翻转了，并在隔夜发表的一份说明中写道“不要买这个蘸酱。”他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我是一个持续的逢低买入者，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱的磁带做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇论文越来越难从我的座位上放置（在上周与发行相关的一些波涛汹涌的px行动之后）。99%的S&amp;P 500公司将进入下周的回购封锁期，供应方面的量化流动仍然不对称（也就是CTA卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是收益期最繁忙的两周。随着FAAMG综合体背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，7月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售出价正在减弱）。从1年的回顾来看，高频长度最近有了显著的增长，但从3年的基础上来看，净和毛都远高于第50百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。在中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国ADR后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都认为10年期国债收益率将在2021年首次远低于200日均线1.26。没有必要按下恐慌按钮，但我计划在接下来的几次会议中耐心购买门票。以下是10个关键看跌洪水正在监测的事态发展：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1)周末的Covid头条新闻是我在2021年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个...</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增超过60%，超过全球16%的增幅。FDA前局长斯科特·戈特利布(Scott Gottlieb)表示，Delta病例可能被低估。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估”了COVID delta在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>疾病预防控制中心警告称，随着该国接种率较低地区的病例、住院和死亡人数上升，将出现“未接种疫苗的大流行”。BBG</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠疫情统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在东京奥运会预计开始前几天，第一批东京奥运会运动员的新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出奥运会的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅行者都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这张纸越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月底尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3)第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们要期待好消息，但不要指望这些好消息会得到回报。又名卖方的估计仍然太低，头寸仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行财报（基本上全面上涨）以来，银行指数已下跌355个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购封锁期，这将持续到2011年7月23日....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流是不对称的...（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6）市场广度继续恶化（上个月ATH为100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7)又名，如果没有FAAMG最近的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8)与中国的紧张局势不断升级，我们看到ADR的风险持续降低：白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。纽约时报</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9)零售支持MTD一直在减弱....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）回顾1年，基本L/S定位有了显着提高....回顾3年，仍然很高....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2636,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}