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2021-05-13

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Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>

I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of i

Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>

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That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.<blockquote>我并不是说在通货膨胀完全到来之前，其他任何东西都无法完成这项工作，只是说如果没有其他东西，我所写的那种通货膨胀肯定会完成这项工作。这就是市场的恐惧，而且有一个很好的理由，这可能不是一些投资者首先想到的。</blockquote>Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.<blockquote>许多人谈论投资股票的“风险溢价”。随着通胀上升，债券收益率上升，以抵消通胀造成的损失。随着债券收益率上升，股票竞争力下降。</blockquote>That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.<blockquote>这是个问题，但不是大问题。这次不行。</blockquote>The big&nbsp;problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.<blockquote>最大的问题是，我们都知道购买股票的资金来自哪里——美联储和美国政府通过借入和分配美联储印刷的资金。所以，最大的问题是美联储。</blockquote>Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own making<blockquote>美联储正陷入自己造成的混乱之中</blockquote>Having made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.<blockquote>在证明高通胀已经成为必然之后，用不了多久，美联储就会陷入一个陷阱，需要继续创造货币以保持市场上涨并继续刺激经济，但它不会。这就是为什么我们听到美联储不停地谈论通胀现在是“暂时的”。美联储需要让所有投资者相信通胀的快速曙光期将会很短，因此可以忽略它。美联储需要市场相信它能够也将继续印钞。</blockquote>However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)<blockquote>然而，美联储只是在自欺欺人。它声称通货膨胀是暂时的，以便它可以忽略快速上升的数字，通货膨胀就会越失控，因为美联储和联邦政府继续印钞和运送钞票的装甲车昼夜不停地运行。（当然是比喻性的。）</blockquote>The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.<blockquote>美联储可能会欺骗自己（和我们）的长期伤害，但它不太可能欺骗市场太久，因为这些数字将太高，市场无法忽视。周三，我们在市场对多年来最高通胀消息的反应中看到了这一点——4月份的年化通胀为4.2%，远低于我们今年夏天即将看到的通胀水平。这只是球场的结束。</blockquote>How inflation will fight the Fed and win<blockquote>通胀将如何对抗美联储并获胜</blockquote>The danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.<blockquote>通胀带来的危险是，如果通胀升至我确定的水平（两位数），那么美联储将被迫提高利率目标，因为市场无论如何都会推高利率，这使得美联储看起来很愚蠢。声称自己无法持有的利率目标。美联储将无法在不通过创造新货币造成更大通胀的情况下压低利率。</blockquote>However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.<blockquote>然而，这不仅仅是债券义务警员会从美联储手中夺取利息控制权，股市也会迫使美联储通过担心通胀来应对通胀，无论美联储是否表示应该这样做。消费者还将向国会施压，要求美联储应对通胀。拖延的时间越长，美联储就必须加息的幅度就越大，就像保罗·沃尔克在80年代为控制通胀所做的那样。</blockquote>This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.<blockquote>在股市处于荒谬的危险高度之际，这个难题现在开始成为现实。通胀的微弱认识不再那么微弱，这就是市场动力不足的原因。投资者开始相信美联储将失去对利率的控制。投资者开始怀疑美联储的信心之言。</blockquote>Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.<blockquote>当然，要崩溃，势头必须转向下行，而在市场确定美联储将失去控制之前，这种情况不太可能发生；但这可能会像2018年那样缓慢发生，然后很快发生。</blockquote>Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.<blockquote>通胀是美联储背上的定时炸弹。我的论点是，现在每个月美联储都会发现越来越难维持这样的幻想：它可以继续创造货币，将其注入普通投资者（散户投资者、罗宾汉人群等）手中。）通过政府刺激计划（应政府的要求），并继续努力保持低利率，通过贷款资助的公司股票回购向股市注入资金。通货膨胀会压垮宽松的货币。它统治着。美联储可以统治它，但只能通过拿走资金并摧毁完全依赖这些资金的市场。</blockquote>The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The&nbsp;real&nbsp;fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.<blockquote>盘子旋转器开始失去对所有盘子的控制，它必须在小棍子的末端保持旋转。今天的市场走势表明，随着通胀表现得比投资者担心的更糟糕，市场开始关注板块下跌的声音。The真的恐惧——直到现在才被预示的深度瘫痪恐惧——不是来自债券收益率上升的竞争（尽管这肯定会到来），而是通胀将变得足够激烈，以至于美联储将被迫关闭所有的go果汁。</blockquote>Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.<blockquote>通货膨胀有能力突然扭转市场情绪，因为，嗯，跟随资金回到它的来源。</blockquote>Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. MarketWatchInflation jitters will become inflation&nbsp;panic&nbsp;when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.<blockquote>一份报告显示，随着新冠疫情的复苏，截至4月份的一年里，美国通胀率以约13年来最快的速度上升，通胀担忧再次蔓延，股市大幅走低。市场观察通胀不安将变成通胀恐慌当很明显，升至4.2不仅仅是一个暂时现象，而是消费者方面未来许多步骤中的第一步。希望我的读者中没有人太关注那些预测只有3.6%的经济学家。</blockquote>“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.&nbsp; But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.<blockquote>Incapital交易主管帕特里克·利里(Patrick Leary)在接受MarketWatch采访时表示：“通货膨胀会摧毁财富。就这样。”“我们看到通货膨胀出现在市场上。如果它确实是暂时的，市场可以接受。但如果它不是暂时的，那么它就会成为股市的麻烦。“财富的破坏是一个担忧，但我认为，更大的担忧是亚马逊规模的、轻松流入市场的资金的损失。这就是为什么当就业报告非常糟糕时，市场会上涨。就业疲软的报告缓解了人们对通胀的担忧，导致美联储关闭了资金流动。这就是为什么今天市场因与通胀高于许多人预期相反的可靠消息而暴跌。</blockquote>The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten,&nbsp;regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.<blockquote>美联储的手可能很快就会被现实所迫；如果你一直在这里阅读——尤其是那些重点关注通货膨胀的顾客帖子，你就会对即将发生的事情有一个很好的了解。然而，人们不必等到美联储收紧政策才能阻止通胀；人们只需要等到股票投资者确信美联储将不得不收紧货币政策，不管美联储声称如何向投资者保证不会。</blockquote>As&nbsp;MarketWatch&nbsp;noted yesterday,<blockquote>作为市场观察昨天指出，</blockquote>Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,&nbsp; as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.&nbsp;After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear&nbsp; Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.<blockquote>周二股市看起来充满风险，尤其是科技股，随着通胀不安情绪继续波及整个市场。该行业一直首当其冲，人们担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束COVID-19大流行推动的宽松立场。在上周就业意外下滑之后，一些人感到担忧周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重冲击。市场在自身负荷下头重脚轻、紧张不安，如果仅仅相信美联储将被迫紧缩，市场就会崩溃。这就是为什么今天它像前震一样震动，但如果你一直在这里阅读，它根本不是一个冲击。这是意料之中的。</blockquote>Inflation is the “ worst-case &nbsp;scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors,&nbsp;warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the&nbsp;key:<blockquote>通货膨胀是“最坏情况情景”对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场，《股票交易者日报》总裁兼首席执行官兼Equity Logic投资组合经理Thomas H.Kee Jr.警告我们当天的看涨期权。这是钥匙：</blockquote>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.&nbsp; If inflation comes back, all &nbsp;of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able &nbsp;to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and &nbsp;if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen&nbsp;either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed&nbsp;wants&nbsp;higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.<blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施成为可能的唯一原因是因为没有通货膨胀。如果通胀卷土重来，全部投资者获得的保障措施（刺激计划中的免费资金）将被解散，而且不会能干回来拯救世界，”Kee告诉MarketWatch……他表示，最近的就业数据确实表明价格上涨将“比之前想象的更严重……”“下降幅度可能比25%严重得多如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因为通货膨胀而被束缚，投资者已经习惯的快速反弹将不会发生基说。“SPX SPX(^GSPC)的公允价值倍数不是30-[至]35倍。更像是15倍……”让这一点变得现实的是投资者自然风险认知的回归——目前这种认知严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划全面生效，投资者根本没有察觉到任何风险。那是最危险的事情！”纪说……”当大买家不在那里时…那就是对风险的自然感知回来的时候，如果发生这种情况…请注意下面！！“你看，通胀上升有能力让美联储屈服。我一直在写的那种通胀可能会让美联储失去魔力，这就是为什么鲍威尔已经在尽最大努力让金融市场相信美联储想要更高的通胀，并让他们相信它想要的更高通胀在开始之前就是暂时的。</blockquote>Market susceptibility<blockquote>市场易感性</blockquote>Notes Lance Roberts,<blockquote>兰斯·罗伯茨指出，</blockquote>There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market,&nbsp;but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” Seeking AlphaHow much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?<blockquote>这次牛市不可能不以非常糟糕的方式结束。我们都知道这是这个流动性推动的市场的现实，但我们继续投资是因为“害怕错过”。寻求阿尔法美联储和美联储涌入市场的所有刺激资金创造了多少现金流，使过去一年的疯狂成为可能？</blockquote>Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.<blockquote>过去5个月，涌入股市的资金比过去12年的总和还要多。算一算，问问你自己，如果货币不得不被关闭，会发生什么，因为通货膨胀迫使美联储停止在商品很少的环境中创造大量新货币，这是由于以前的COVID关闭短缺和他们已经建立的持续问题。</blockquote>And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):<blockquote>而且，如果您不认为市场因宽松资金而不稳定地走高，请看看保证金债务（欠经纪人的钱）上升导致市场上涨了多少：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca87d635f36dfaa1c989d7e459550d1\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>When the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.<blockquote>当美联储面临加息和停止印钞的压力时，经纪人就不会如此自由地放贷了。现在，以几乎免费的利率轻松赚钱。然而，更重要的是，当市场因担心美联储切断宽松货币供应而开始下跌时，所有保证金债务都开始匆忙平仓，因为人们被迫出售资产并减少保证金债务。</blockquote>As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:<blockquote>正如您还可以看到的，市场债务往往会在严重崩盘之前发生像这样的巨大、快速飙升：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff13864e0443e2a448952529cdf6e2c\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>In the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.<blockquote>短期来看，基本面并不重要。然而，从长远来看，它们非常重要。情绪可能会导致投资者长期忽视经济基本面，但在高利润率债务的环境下，对长期被忽视的基本面看法的突然变化会带来人们的快速修正框架参考。</blockquote>Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.<blockquote>目前，投资者忽视了经济和盈利将改善的基本面，以证明市场高估的合理性。这不太可能发生。即使是这样，大多数圈子对金融格局（货币的核心价值）的看法也过于乐观，正如今天的冲击所表明的那样；但你可以看到一年后的情况。</blockquote>The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.<blockquote>美联储说得好像它仍然没有看到即将发生的事情，但这是同一个美联储谈论紧缩将是多么容易。它似乎不知道自己没有一个不会导致市场情绪急剧下降并导致市场崩溃的退出计划。然而，那些不在费德神父脚下敬拜的人，多年后也能看到这一点。</blockquote>When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&amp;P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.<blockquote>当复苏预期落空时，市场将开始为其内在价值重新定价。鉴于市场目前的交易水平是潜在经济增长水平的两倍多，而潜在经济增长是企业利润的来源，这表明存在重大风险。这就是为什么道琼斯指数今天下跌682点（2%），标准普尔指数下跌2.14%，纳斯达克下跌368点（2.67%）。股票中没有太多安全的空间。</blockquote>Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.<blockquote>别告诉我通货膨胀对这个市场无关紧要。六个月来最糟糕的一天。在另一个顾客帖子中会有更多的介绍。</blockquote>Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:<blockquote>现在，让我再一次做我说过的在这个时候是必不可少的那种纠正性报告。一、假新闻：</blockquote>One big reason for the acceleration was&nbsp; base effects&nbsp;– at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,<blockquote>加速的一个重要原因是基础效应-一年前的这个时候，经济受到了新冠疫情最严重的打击，通货膨胀率异常低。CNBC这并不准确。正如我在上一篇赞助人帖子中所说，我还列出了统计事实和来源来支持我的声明，</blockquote>Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:<blockquote>尽管发生了疫情，食品价格和许多其他价格仍像去年三月一样上涨。事实上，3月份之后，它们的涨幅比正常情况更糟糕，2020年剩余时间里每个月的年化涨幅都在3.5%至4%之间。“通胀海啸警报正在尖叫！”我特别注意到一位经济学家，他说食品杂货和燃料现在只是在弥补上次的损失：</blockquote>So,&nbsp; like groceries,&nbsp;gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that&nbsp;fuel&nbsp;prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but&nbsp;groceries? Come on!<blockquote>所以，比如食品杂货，气体正在赶上回到我们实际预期的位置…去年主要发生的是燃料由于没有任何东西被运输，缺乏度假和通勤，价格暴跌，但杂货？来吧！</blockquote>“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of factsif&nbsp;the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.<blockquote>如果你回顾2018年的价格，汽油的“追赶”可能是真的，但当你在评论中接受杂货时，这完全是马粪。食品杂货没有什么可做的。2020年全年食品的平均通胀率为3.4%，相比之下，自2011年以来，每年的平均通胀率为0.3%-2.5%。3.6%。虽然去年4月至6月的整体通胀率低于正常水平，但这与今年有什么关系呢？【总体】去年物价仍上涨；因此，这并不是说你在与一个反常的年份进行比较，在这几个月里，整体价格下跌，这意味着今年的一些涨幅只是弥补了去年的反常损失。那么你就可以如实地说有一个基数效应。因此，通货膨胀的到来比美联储让人们相信的要严重得多；而且，正如我最近的赞助人帖子所展示的那样，生产者方面已经酝酿了更多的通货膨胀，这肯定会被传递出去。我注意到你现在可以期待看到这一点开始出现在消费者方面，你也确实做到了。这将是一个通胀炎热的夏天，这可能会恶化市场情绪，因此股市不会很好地适应。可以肯定的是，无论如何，仍然有很多睾丸激素决心推高股市，但炎热潮湿的夏天将会摧毁这种情绪，就像今天一样；无论图表读者根据当前的情绪趋势做出什么预测，它都会继续波动。在事实面前，趋势会很快改变如果事实以足够的活力闯入。我认为高通胀是一个令人恐惧的事实，它可以通过阻止美联储计划的推进来突破。</blockquote>If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.<blockquote>如果美联储真的继续带着同样的盲目无知和顽固的决心前进，以证明自己是正确的，这导致它继续推行经济紧缩制度（正如我在2018年声称的那样，这与良好的判断相反），它真的会让事情变得更糟，更难驯服。我认为这不是不可能的。</blockquote>“ There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,<blockquote>“有些人认为美联储不仅仅落后于形势，他们可能没有抓住要点，当他们开始追赶时，已经太晚了，华尔街资深人士阿特·卡辛(Art Cashin)周三表示CNBCAS的一位经济学家指出，</blockquote>“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.&nbsp; “It’s just that there’s a lot more &nbsp;‘transitory’ than they were expecting.”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)美国高级经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯(Michael Pearce)写道：“我们怀疑这份报告能否改变官员们的看法，即通胀压力‘很大程度上是暂时的’。”“只是有一个更多比他们预期的“短暂”。“CNBC确实如此。更多。当他们用完一个假的基础效应来指责它时，他们会怎么做？</blockquote>Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!<blockquote>喜欢吗？花点时间在Patreon上支持大卫·哈吉斯！</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-05-13 16:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nI’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.<blockquote>我并不是说在通货膨胀完全到来之前，其他任何东西都无法完成这项工作，只是说如果没有其他东西，我所写的那种通货膨胀肯定会完成这项工作。这就是市场的恐惧，而且有一个很好的理由，这可能不是一些投资者首先想到的。</blockquote>Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.<blockquote>许多人谈论投资股票的“风险溢价”。随着通胀上升，债券收益率上升，以抵消通胀造成的损失。随着债券收益率上升，股票竞争力下降。</blockquote>That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.<blockquote>这是个问题，但不是大问题。这次不行。</blockquote>The big&nbsp;problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.<blockquote>最大的问题是，我们都知道购买股票的资金来自哪里——美联储和美国政府通过借入和分配美联储印刷的资金。所以，最大的问题是美联储。</blockquote>Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own making<blockquote>美联储正陷入自己造成的混乱之中</blockquote>Having made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.<blockquote>在证明高通胀已经成为必然之后，用不了多久，美联储就会陷入一个陷阱，需要继续创造货币以保持市场上涨并继续刺激经济，但它不会。这就是为什么我们听到美联储不停地谈论通胀现在是“暂时的”。美联储需要让所有投资者相信通胀的快速曙光期将会很短，因此可以忽略它。美联储需要市场相信它能够也将继续印钞。</blockquote>However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)<blockquote>然而，美联储只是在自欺欺人。它声称通货膨胀是暂时的，以便它可以忽略快速上升的数字，通货膨胀就会越失控，因为美联储和联邦政府继续印钞和运送钞票的装甲车昼夜不停地运行。（当然是比喻性的。）</blockquote>The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.<blockquote>美联储可能会欺骗自己（和我们）的长期伤害，但它不太可能欺骗市场太久，因为这些数字将太高，市场无法忽视。周三，我们在市场对多年来最高通胀消息的反应中看到了这一点——4月份的年化通胀为4.2%，远低于我们今年夏天即将看到的通胀水平。这只是球场的结束。</blockquote>How inflation will fight the Fed and win<blockquote>通胀将如何对抗美联储并获胜</blockquote>The danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.<blockquote>通胀带来的危险是，如果通胀升至我确定的水平（两位数），那么美联储将被迫提高利率目标，因为市场无论如何都会推高利率，这使得美联储看起来很愚蠢。声称自己无法持有的利率目标。美联储将无法在不通过创造新货币造成更大通胀的情况下压低利率。</blockquote>However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.<blockquote>然而，这不仅仅是债券义务警员会从美联储手中夺取利息控制权，股市也会迫使美联储通过担心通胀来应对通胀，无论美联储是否表示应该这样做。消费者还将向国会施压，要求美联储应对通胀。拖延的时间越长，美联储就必须加息的幅度就越大，就像保罗·沃尔克在80年代为控制通胀所做的那样。</blockquote>This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.<blockquote>在股市处于荒谬的危险高度之际，这个难题现在开始成为现实。通胀的微弱认识不再那么微弱，这就是市场动力不足的原因。投资者开始相信美联储将失去对利率的控制。投资者开始怀疑美联储的信心之言。</blockquote>Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.<blockquote>当然，要崩溃，势头必须转向下行，而在市场确定美联储将失去控制之前，这种情况不太可能发生；但这可能会像2018年那样缓慢发生，然后很快发生。</blockquote>Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.<blockquote>通胀是美联储背上的定时炸弹。我的论点是，现在每个月美联储都会发现越来越难维持这样的幻想：它可以继续创造货币，将其注入普通投资者（散户投资者、罗宾汉人群等）手中。）通过政府刺激计划（应政府的要求），并继续努力保持低利率，通过贷款资助的公司股票回购向股市注入资金。通货膨胀会压垮宽松的货币。它统治着。美联储可以统治它，但只能通过拿走资金并摧毁完全依赖这些资金的市场。</blockquote>The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The&nbsp;real&nbsp;fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.<blockquote>盘子旋转器开始失去对所有盘子的控制，它必须在小棍子的末端保持旋转。今天的市场走势表明，随着通胀表现得比投资者担心的更糟糕，市场开始关注板块下跌的声音。The真的恐惧——直到现在才被预示的深度瘫痪恐惧——不是来自债券收益率上升的竞争（尽管这肯定会到来），而是通胀将变得足够激烈，以至于美联储将被迫关闭所有的go果汁。</blockquote>Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.<blockquote>通货膨胀有能力突然扭转市场情绪，因为，嗯，跟随资金回到它的来源。</blockquote>Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. MarketWatchInflation jitters will become inflation&nbsp;panic&nbsp;when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.<blockquote>一份报告显示，随着新冠疫情的复苏，截至4月份的一年里，美国通胀率以约13年来最快的速度上升，通胀担忧再次蔓延，股市大幅走低。市场观察通胀不安将变成通胀恐慌当很明显，升至4.2不仅仅是一个暂时现象，而是消费者方面未来许多步骤中的第一步。希望我的读者中没有人太关注那些预测只有3.6%的经济学家。</blockquote>“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.&nbsp; But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.<blockquote>Incapital交易主管帕特里克·利里(Patrick Leary)在接受MarketWatch采访时表示：“通货膨胀会摧毁财富。就这样。”“我们看到通货膨胀出现在市场上。如果它确实是暂时的，市场可以接受。但如果它不是暂时的，那么它就会成为股市的麻烦。“财富的破坏是一个担忧，但我认为，更大的担忧是亚马逊规模的、轻松流入市场的资金的损失。这就是为什么当就业报告非常糟糕时，市场会上涨。就业疲软的报告缓解了人们对通胀的担忧，导致美联储关闭了资金流动。这就是为什么今天市场因与通胀高于许多人预期相反的可靠消息而暴跌。</blockquote>The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten,&nbsp;regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.<blockquote>美联储的手可能很快就会被现实所迫；如果你一直在这里阅读——尤其是那些重点关注通货膨胀的顾客帖子，你就会对即将发生的事情有一个很好的了解。然而，人们不必等到美联储收紧政策才能阻止通胀；人们只需要等到股票投资者确信美联储将不得不收紧货币政策，不管美联储声称如何向投资者保证不会。</blockquote>As&nbsp;MarketWatch&nbsp;noted yesterday,<blockquote>作为市场观察昨天指出，</blockquote>Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,&nbsp; as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.&nbsp;After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear&nbsp; Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.<blockquote>周二股市看起来充满风险，尤其是科技股，随着通胀不安情绪继续波及整个市场。该行业一直首当其冲，人们担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束COVID-19大流行推动的宽松立场。在上周就业意外下滑之后，一些人感到担忧周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重冲击。市场在自身负荷下头重脚轻、紧张不安，如果仅仅相信美联储将被迫紧缩，市场就会崩溃。这就是为什么今天它像前震一样震动，但如果你一直在这里阅读，它根本不是一个冲击。这是意料之中的。</blockquote>Inflation is the “ worst-case &nbsp;scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors,&nbsp;warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the&nbsp;key:<blockquote>通货膨胀是“最坏情况情景”对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场，《股票交易者日报》总裁兼首席执行官兼Equity Logic投资组合经理Thomas H.Kee Jr.警告我们当天的看涨期权。这是钥匙：</blockquote>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.&nbsp; If inflation comes back, all &nbsp;of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able &nbsp;to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and &nbsp;if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen&nbsp;either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed&nbsp;wants&nbsp;higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.<blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施成为可能的唯一原因是因为没有通货膨胀。如果通胀卷土重来，全部投资者获得的保障措施（刺激计划中的免费资金）将被解散，而且不会能干回来拯救世界，”Kee告诉MarketWatch……他表示，最近的就业数据确实表明价格上涨将“比之前想象的更严重……”“下降幅度可能比25%严重得多如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因为通货膨胀而被束缚，投资者已经习惯的快速反弹将不会发生基说。“SPX SPX(^GSPC)的公允价值倍数不是30-[至]35倍。更像是15倍……”让这一点变得现实的是投资者自然风险认知的回归——目前这种认知严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划全面生效，投资者根本没有察觉到任何风险。那是最危险的事情！”纪说……”当大买家不在那里时…那就是对风险的自然感知回来的时候，如果发生这种情况…请注意下面！！“你看，通胀上升有能力让美联储屈服。我一直在写的那种通胀可能会让美联储失去魔力，这就是为什么鲍威尔已经在尽最大努力让金融市场相信美联储想要更高的通胀，并让他们相信它想要的更高通胀在开始之前就是暂时的。</blockquote>Market susceptibility<blockquote>市场易感性</blockquote>Notes Lance Roberts,<blockquote>兰斯·罗伯茨指出，</blockquote>There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market,&nbsp;but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” Seeking AlphaHow much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?<blockquote>这次牛市不可能不以非常糟糕的方式结束。我们都知道这是这个流动性推动的市场的现实，但我们继续投资是因为“害怕错过”。寻求阿尔法美联储和美联储涌入市场的所有刺激资金创造了多少现金流，使过去一年的疯狂成为可能？</blockquote>Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.<blockquote>过去5个月，涌入股市的资金比过去12年的总和还要多。算一算，问问你自己，如果货币不得不被关闭，会发生什么，因为通货膨胀迫使美联储停止在商品很少的环境中创造大量新货币，这是由于以前的COVID关闭短缺和他们已经建立的持续问题。</blockquote>And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):<blockquote>而且，如果您不认为市场因宽松资金而不稳定地走高，请看看保证金债务（欠经纪人的钱）上升导致市场上涨了多少：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca87d635f36dfaa1c989d7e459550d1\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>When the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.<blockquote>当美联储面临加息和停止印钞的压力时，经纪人就不会如此自由地放贷了。现在，以几乎免费的利率轻松赚钱。然而，更重要的是，当市场因担心美联储切断宽松货币供应而开始下跌时，所有保证金债务都开始匆忙平仓，因为人们被迫出售资产并减少保证金债务。</blockquote>As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:<blockquote>正如您还可以看到的，市场债务往往会在严重崩盘之前发生像这样的巨大、快速飙升：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff13864e0443e2a448952529cdf6e2c\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>In the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.<blockquote>短期来看，基本面并不重要。然而，从长远来看，它们非常重要。情绪可能会导致投资者长期忽视经济基本面，但在高利润率债务的环境下，对长期被忽视的基本面看法的突然变化会带来人们的快速修正框架参考。</blockquote>Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.<blockquote>目前，投资者忽视了经济和盈利将改善的基本面，以证明市场高估的合理性。这不太可能发生。即使是这样，大多数圈子对金融格局（货币的核心价值）的看法也过于乐观，正如今天的冲击所表明的那样；但你可以看到一年后的情况。</blockquote>The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.<blockquote>美联储说得好像它仍然没有看到即将发生的事情，但这是同一个美联储谈论紧缩将是多么容易。它似乎不知道自己没有一个不会导致市场情绪急剧下降并导致市场崩溃的退出计划。然而，那些不在费德神父脚下敬拜的人，多年后也能看到这一点。</blockquote>When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&amp;P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.<blockquote>当复苏预期落空时，市场将开始为其内在价值重新定价。鉴于市场目前的交易水平是潜在经济增长水平的两倍多，而潜在经济增长是企业利润的来源，这表明存在重大风险。这就是为什么道琼斯指数今天下跌682点（2%），标准普尔指数下跌2.14%，纳斯达克下跌368点（2.67%）。股票中没有太多安全的空间。</blockquote>Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.<blockquote>别告诉我通货膨胀对这个市场无关紧要。六个月来最糟糕的一天。在另一个顾客帖子中会有更多的介绍。</blockquote>Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:<blockquote>现在，让我再一次做我说过的在这个时候是必不可少的那种纠正性报告。一、假新闻：</blockquote>One big reason for the acceleration was&nbsp; base effects&nbsp;– at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,<blockquote>加速的一个重要原因是基础效应-一年前的这个时候，经济受到了新冠疫情最严重的打击，通货膨胀率异常低。CNBC这并不准确。正如我在上一篇赞助人帖子中所说，我还列出了统计事实和来源来支持我的声明，</blockquote>Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:<blockquote>尽管发生了疫情，食品价格和许多其他价格仍像去年三月一样上涨。事实上，3月份之后，它们的涨幅比正常情况更糟糕，2020年剩余时间里每个月的年化涨幅都在3.5%至4%之间。“通胀海啸警报正在尖叫！”我特别注意到一位经济学家，他说食品杂货和燃料现在只是在弥补上次的损失：</blockquote>So,&nbsp; like groceries,&nbsp;gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that&nbsp;fuel&nbsp;prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but&nbsp;groceries? Come on!<blockquote>所以，比如食品杂货，气体正在赶上回到我们实际预期的位置…去年主要发生的是燃料由于没有任何东西被运输，缺乏度假和通勤，价格暴跌，但杂货？来吧！</blockquote>“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of factsif&nbsp;the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.<blockquote>如果你回顾2018年的价格，汽油的“追赶”可能是真的，但当你在评论中接受杂货时，这完全是马粪。食品杂货没有什么可做的。2020年全年食品的平均通胀率为3.4%，相比之下，自2011年以来，每年的平均通胀率为0.3%-2.5%。3.6%。虽然去年4月至6月的整体通胀率低于正常水平，但这与今年有什么关系呢？【总体】去年物价仍上涨；因此，这并不是说你在与一个反常的年份进行比较，在这几个月里，整体价格下跌，这意味着今年的一些涨幅只是弥补了去年的反常损失。那么你就可以如实地说有一个基数效应。因此，通货膨胀的到来比美联储让人们相信的要严重得多；而且，正如我最近的赞助人帖子所展示的那样，生产者方面已经酝酿了更多的通货膨胀，这肯定会被传递出去。我注意到你现在可以期待看到这一点开始出现在消费者方面，你也确实做到了。这将是一个通胀炎热的夏天，这可能会恶化市场情绪，因此股市不会很好地适应。可以肯定的是，无论如何，仍然有很多睾丸激素决心推高股市，但炎热潮湿的夏天将会摧毁这种情绪，就像今天一样；无论图表读者根据当前的情绪趋势做出什么预测，它都会继续波动。在事实面前，趋势会很快改变如果事实以足够的活力闯入。我认为高通胀是一个令人恐惧的事实，它可以通过阻止美联储计划的推进来突破。</blockquote>If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.<blockquote>如果美联储真的继续带着同样的盲目无知和顽固的决心前进，以证明自己是正确的，这导致它继续推行经济紧缩制度（正如我在2018年声称的那样，这与良好的判断相反），它真的会让事情变得更糟，更难驯服。我认为这不是不可能的。</blockquote>“ There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,<blockquote>“有些人认为美联储不仅仅落后于形势，他们可能没有抓住要点，当他们开始追赶时，已经太晚了，华尔街资深人士阿特·卡辛(Art Cashin)周三表示CNBCAS的一位经济学家指出，</blockquote>“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.&nbsp; “It’s just that there’s a lot more &nbsp;‘transitory’ than they were expecting.”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)美国高级经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯(Michael Pearce)写道：“我们怀疑这份报告能否改变官员们的看法，即通胀压力‘很大程度上是暂时的’。”“只是有一个更多比他们预期的“短暂”。“CNBC确实如此。更多。当他们用完一个假的基础效应来指责它时，他们会怎么做？</blockquote>Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!<blockquote>喜欢吗？花点时间在Patreon上支持大卫·哈吉斯！</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-12/inflation-will-kill-stock-market\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-12/inflation-will-kill-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134419676","content_text":"I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.The big problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own makingHaving made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.How inflation will fight the Fed and winThe danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The real fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. MarketWatchInflation jitters will become inflation panic when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.  But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten, regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.As MarketWatch noted yesterday,Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,  as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance. After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear  Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.Inflation is the “ worst-case  scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors, warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the key:“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.  If inflation comes back, all  of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able  to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and  if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed wants higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.Market susceptibilityNotes Lance Roberts,There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market, but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” Seeking AlphaHow much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):Seeking AlphaWhen the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:Seeking AlphaIn the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:One big reason for the acceleration was  base effects – at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:So,  like groceries, gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that fuel prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but groceries? Come on!“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of factsif the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.“ There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.  “It’s just that there’s a lot more  ‘transitory’ than they were expecting.”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":699,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}