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elichai
2021-02-23

Excellent! More time to spend in the market.

Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote>

Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indica

Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":363099699,"tweetId":"363099699","gmtCreate":1614080404911,"gmtModify":1634551265164,"author":{"id":3562838625839654,"idStr":"3562838625839654","authorId":3562838625839654,"authorIdStr":"3562838625839654","name":"elichai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b246d2a2e9491260b7612226b3e180d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Excellent! More time to spend in the market.</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Excellent! More time to spend in the market.</body></html>","text":"Excellent! More time to spend in the market.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363099699","repostId":1116870824,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116870824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614051228,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116870824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116870824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indica","content":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’<blockquote>Ray Dalio的泡沫指标表示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77百分位</blockquote> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.<blockquote>最近，一些投资者感觉股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷·达里奥(Ray Dalio)的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那么泡沫。</blockquote> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.<blockquote>达里奥在周一发表的一篇博客文章中写道：“简而言之，今天美国股市整体的总体泡沫指标约为第77百分位。在2000年的泡沫和1929年的泡沫中，这一总体指标的读数为第100百分位。”在LinkedIn上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"><blockquote></blockquote> RAY DALIO<blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.<blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水基金的创始人，这使他成为亿万富翁，他的评论一直吸引着人们的注意力。</blockquote> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:<blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他创建了一个指标，通过使用六项指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote> <ol> <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li> <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li> <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li> <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li> <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li> <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\">VIA RAY DALIO<blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否低估了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即那些以前不在市场上的人）进入了市场？</li><li>市场情绪有多乐观？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期购买（例如，建立库存、签订远期购买合同等。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol>通过雷·达里奥</blockquote> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.<blockquote>基于这些因素，并使用20世纪10年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明市场存在泡沫，但根据他的定义，不一定处于泡沫之中。</blockquote> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.<blockquote>达里奥发表这份报告之际，股市投资者正在努力应对债券收益率上升的问题，10年期美国国债触及约一年来的最高水平，投资者正在为通胀上升和因COVID-19疫情而陷入困境的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.<blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，此后的估值高得离谱。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre we in a bubble? How founder of world’s largest hedge fund says 2021 stock market stacks up<blockquote>我们是在泡沫中吗？全球最大对冲基金创始人如何评价2021年股市走势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-23 11:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRay Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’<blockquote>Ray Dalio的泡沫指标表示，2021年市场在他的“泡沫指标”中排名第77百分位</blockquote> The stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.<blockquote>最近，一些投资者感觉股市泡沫严重，这一事实在过去一周左右的时间里打压了市场的看涨情绪，但雷·达里奥(Ray Dalio)的一份报告暗示，股市并不像人们想象的那么泡沫。</blockquote> “In brief,&nbsp;the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.&nbsp;In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in&nbsp;a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.<blockquote>达里奥在周一发表的一篇博客文章中写道：“简而言之，今天美国股市整体的总体泡沫指标约为第77百分位。在2000年的泡沫和1929年的泡沫中，这一总体指标的读数为第100百分位。”在LinkedIn上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab41b9c50d3b241dd38ad744ba96b22\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"597\"><blockquote></blockquote> RAY DALIO<blockquote>雷·达里奥</blockquote> Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.<blockquote>达里奥是全球最大的对冲基金公司桥水基金的创始人，这使他成为亿万富翁，他的评论一直吸引着人们的注意力。</blockquote> The hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:<blockquote>这位对冲基金投资者表示，他创建了一个指标，通过使用六项指标来帮助他确定股市是否处于泡沫中，他将泡沫定义为不可持续的高价：</blockquote> <ol> <li>How high are prices relative to traditional measures?</li> <li>Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?</li> <li>How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?</li> <li>How broadly bullish is sentiment?</li> <li>Are purchases being financed by high leverage?</li> <li>Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?</li> </ol> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ffcb17a9670acba9a6816361da9fb0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"301\">VIA RAY DALIO<blockquote><ol><li>相对于传统措施，价格有多高？</li><li>价格是否低估了不可持续的条件？</li><li>有多少新买家（即那些以前不在市场上的人）进入了市场？</li><li>市场情绪有多乐观？</li><li>购买是否通过高杠杆融资？</li><li>买家是否进行了异常延长的远期购买（例如，建立库存、签订远期购买合同等。）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</li></ol>通过雷·达里奥</blockquote> Based on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.<blockquote>基于这些因素，并使用20世纪10年代的数据，达里奥的指标表明市场存在泡沫，但根据他的定义，不一定处于泡沫之中。</blockquote> Dalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.<blockquote>达里奥发表这份报告之际，股市投资者正在努力应对债券收益率上升的问题，10年期美国国债触及约一年来的最高水平，投资者正在为通胀上升和因COVID-19疫情而陷入困境的经济复苏做好准备。</blockquote> Fiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.<blockquote>投资者认为，财政支出和有利于市场的政策是道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数保持在或接近历史高位的因素，尽管从某些指标来看，此后的估值高得离谱。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-a-bubble-how-founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-2021-stock-market-stacks-up-11614010302?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116870824","content_text":"Ray Dalio’s bubble indicator says the 2021 market ranks in the 77th percentile in his ‘bubble indicator’\nThe stock market is feeling awfully frothy to some investors lately, a fact that has helped to weigh on the market’s bullish sentiment in the past week or so, but a report by Ray Dalio implies that equities aren’t as bubblicious as one might think.\n“In brief, the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall. In the bubble of 2000 and the bubble of 1929 this aggregate gauge had a 100th percentile read,” wrote Dalio in a blog post published on Monday on LinkedIn.\n\nRAY DALIO\nDalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire and comments consistent attention grabbers.\nThe hedge-fund investor says that he created an indicator to help him determine whether the stock market is in a bubble, which he defines as an unsustainably high price, by using six measures:\n\nHow high are prices relative to traditional measures?\nAre prices discounting unsustainable conditions?\nHow many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?\nHow broadly bullish is sentiment?\nAre purchases being financed by high leverage?\nHave buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?\n\nVIA RAY DALIO\nBased on those factors, and using data that go back to the 1910s, Dalio’s indicator suggests that markets are frothy but not necessarily in a bubble by his definition.\nDalio’s note comes as stock-market investors are wrestling with rising bonds yields, with the 10-year Treasury note flirts with its highest level in about a year as investors brace for rising inflation and recovery in the economy that has been swooning from the COVID-19 pandemic.\nFiscal spending and market-favorable policies have been factors that investors have argued have kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index at or near record highs, despite valuations since as absurdly rich by some measures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2816,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":37,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}