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2021-04-26

The psychology of a stock market bubble<blockquote>股市泡沫的心理</blockquote>

Worry about a bubble is widespread at the top of a bubbleSometimes people are drawn to investing bec

The psychology of a stock market bubble<blockquote>股市泡沫的心理</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":374917350,"tweetId":"374917350","gmtCreate":1619408828570,"gmtModify":1634273704224,"author":{"id":3563493722494708,"idStr":"3563493722494708","authorId":3563493722494708,"authorIdStr":"3563493722494708","name":"Benzims","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hi&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hi&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374917350","repostId":2129296363,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129296363","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619407680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129296363?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-26 11:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The psychology of a stock market bubble<blockquote>股市泡沫的心理</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129296363","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Worry about a bubble is widespread at the top of a bubbleSometimes people are drawn to investing bec","content":"Worry about a bubble is widespread at the top of a bubble<blockquote>对泡沫的担忧在泡沫顶部普遍存在</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aee1d89d41ff471a9548f988bd7c4fd\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Sometimes people are drawn to investing because of 'gambler's excitement' Getty Images/iStockphoto<blockquote>有时人们会因为“赌徒的兴奋”而被投资Getty Images/iStockphoto</blockquote>I have no idea whether the stock market is actually forming a bubble that's about to break.<blockquote>我不知道股市是否真的正在形成一个即将破裂的泡沫。</blockquote>But I do know that many bulls are fooling themselves when they think a bubble can't happen when so many of us are concerned about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>. In fact, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the distinguishing characteristics of a bubble is that such concern is widespread.<blockquote>但我确实知道，当许多多头认为泡沫不可能发生时，他们是在自欺欺人，而我们很多人都在担心<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>.事实上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>泡沫的显著特征之一是这种担忧是普遍的。</blockquote>This seems counterintuitive. You would think that a bubble is most vulnerable to forming and then popping when investors are oblivious to that possibility. But you would be wrong.<blockquote>这似乎违反直觉。你可能会认为，当投资者没有意识到泡沫的可能性时，泡沫最容易形成，然后破裂。但你就错了。</blockquote>It's important for all of us to be aware of this bubble psychology, but especially if you're a retiree or a near-retiree. That's because, in that case, your investment horizon will be shorter than for those who are younger, and you therefore are less able to recover from the deflation of a market bubble.<blockquote>对我们所有人来说，意识到这种泡沫心理很重要，尤其是如果你是一名退休人员或接近退休人员。这是因为，在这种情况下，您的投资期限将比年轻人短，因此您从市场泡沫通缩中恢复过来的能力较差。</blockquote>To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term \"stock market bubble.\" Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.<blockquote>要了解当前对泡沫的担忧有多普遍，请考虑随附的谷歌趋势数据图表。它根据“股市泡沫”一词绘制了谷歌搜索的相对频率。请注意，这一频率最近跃升至远高于过去五年中任何其他时间点的水平。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c79372e12449d1f3e00acd1666c914\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>This widespread concern is entirely consistent with a bubble's formation, according to a definition proposed several decades ago by Robert Shiller, the Yale finance professor and Nobel laureate. According to him, a bubble is \"a market situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, bringing in a larger and larger class of investors, who, despite doubts about fundamental value, are drawn to the investment partly through envy of others' successes and partly through a gambler's excitement.\" (I italicized the above phrase, not Shiller.)<blockquote>根据耶鲁大学金融学教授、诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·希勒几十年前提出的定义，这种普遍的担忧与泡沫的形成完全一致。他认为，泡沫是“一种市场状况，价格上涨的消息刺激了投资者的热情，这种热情通过心理传染在人与人之间传播，带来了越来越多的投资者，尽管他们对基本价值持怀疑态度，但他们被吸引到投资中，部分是出于对他人成功的嫉妒，部分是出于赌徒的兴奋。”（上面的短语是我用斜体写的，不是席勒。）</blockquote>Notice that recognition of overvaluation is an integral part of the definition.<blockquote>请注意，对高估的认识是定义的一个组成部分。</blockquote>This recognition was certainly present during the weeks and months prior to the popping of the Internet bubble in March 2000. During the early and middle years of the 1990s, you may recall, it was possible to justify higher prices while keeping a straight face. But that became less and less possible as prices continued going higher in the late 1990s, and especially as some dot-com companies went public with huge valuations despite having no assets, revenue or business plan.<blockquote>在2000年3月互联网泡沫破裂之前的几周和几个月里，这种认识肯定是存在的。你可能还记得，在20世纪90年代早期和中期，有可能在板着脸的同时证明更高的价格是合理的。但随着20世纪90年代末价格持续走高，尤其是一些互联网公司尽管没有资产、收入或商业计划，但仍以巨额估值上市，这种可能性变得越来越小。</blockquote>Rather than responding by taking some chips off the table, however, many began freely admitting that a bubble was forming. They no longer tried to justify higher prices on fundamentals, but began justifying it instead in terms of the market's momentum. Prices should keep going up as FOMO seduces more and more investors to jump on the bandwagon.<blockquote>然而，许多人并没有拿出一些筹码作为回应，而是开始坦率地承认泡沫正在形成。他们不再试图用基本面来证明价格上涨的合理性，而是开始用市场的势头来证明价格上涨的合理性。随着FOMO吸引越来越多的投资者加入这股潮流，价格应该会继续上涨。</blockquote>There is no shortage of current analogies, of course. Take dogecoin, which was created as a joke and has no fundamental value. As a recent Wall Street Journal article outlined , the dogecoin \"serves no purpose and, unlike Bitcoin, faces no limit on the number of coins that exist.\" Yet investors are flocking to it, for no other apparent reason than it has already gone up so much. Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin, was quoted in that Wall Street Journal article saying \"This is absurd. I haven't seen anything like it. It's one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.\"<blockquote>当然，当前不乏类比。以狗狗币为例，它是作为一个笑话创造的，没有根本价值。正如《华尔街日报》最近的一篇文章所概述的那样，狗狗币“没有任何用途，而且与比特币不同，存在的硬币数量没有限制。”然而，投资者正涌向它，没有其他明显的原因，只是它已经上涨了这么多。《华尔街日报》的那篇文章援引狗狗币联合创始人比利·马库斯的话说，“这太荒谬了。我从未见过类似的事情。这是那种一旦开始上涨，可能会继续上涨的事情。”</blockquote>Needless to say, things don't go up forever. Those who nevertheless continue to invest in such an environment do so with the implicit assumption that they will be able to recognize it, in advance, when the bubble is about to pop--and therefore able to leave the party before everyone else. This is a dangerous delusion, however; not everyone can be the first to leave the party.<blockquote>不用说，事情不会永远上涨。然而，那些继续在这样一个环境中投资的人隐含着这样一种假设，即当泡沫即将破裂时，他们将能够提前认识到这一点，因此能够在其他人之前离开聚会。然而，这是一种危险的错觉；不是每个人都能第一个离开聚会。</blockquote>The bottom line? Far from being a reason why a bubble isn't forming, the widespread current concern about a possible bubble is actually a reason to worry that it could be. Take heed.<blockquote>底线？目前对可能出现泡沫的广泛担忧远不是泡沫没有形成的原因，实际上是担心泡沫可能形成的原因。小心点。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The psychology of a stock market bubble<blockquote>股市泡沫的心理</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe psychology of a stock market bubble<blockquote>股市泡沫的心理</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-04-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWorry about a bubble is widespread at the top of a bubble<blockquote>对泡沫的担忧在泡沫顶部普遍存在</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aee1d89d41ff471a9548f988bd7c4fd\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Sometimes people are drawn to investing because of 'gambler's excitement' Getty Images/iStockphoto<blockquote>有时人们会因为“赌徒的兴奋”而被投资Getty Images/iStockphoto</blockquote>I have no idea whether the stock market is actually forming a bubble that's about to break.<blockquote>我不知道股市是否真的正在形成一个即将破裂的泡沫。</blockquote>But I do know that many bulls are fooling themselves when they think a bubble can't happen when so many of us are concerned about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>. In fact, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the distinguishing characteristics of a bubble is that such concern is widespread.<blockquote>但我确实知道，当许多多头认为泡沫不可能发生时，他们是在自欺欺人，而我们很多人都在担心<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>.事实上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>泡沫的显著特征之一是这种担忧是普遍的。</blockquote>This seems counterintuitive. You would think that a bubble is most vulnerable to forming and then popping when investors are oblivious to that possibility. But you would be wrong.<blockquote>这似乎违反直觉。你可能会认为，当投资者没有意识到泡沫的可能性时，泡沫最容易形成，然后破裂。但你就错了。</blockquote>It's important for all of us to be aware of this bubble psychology, but especially if you're a retiree or a near-retiree. That's because, in that case, your investment horizon will be shorter than for those who are younger, and you therefore are less able to recover from the deflation of a market bubble.<blockquote>对我们所有人来说，意识到这种泡沫心理很重要，尤其是如果你是一名退休人员或接近退休人员。这是因为，在这种情况下，您的投资期限将比年轻人短，因此您从市场泡沫通缩中恢复过来的能力较差。</blockquote>To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term \"stock market bubble.\" Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.<blockquote>要了解当前对泡沫的担忧有多普遍，请考虑随附的谷歌趋势数据图表。它根据“股市泡沫”一词绘制了谷歌搜索的相对频率。请注意，这一频率最近跃升至远高于过去五年中任何其他时间点的水平。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c79372e12449d1f3e00acd1666c914\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>This widespread concern is entirely consistent with a bubble's formation, according to a definition proposed several decades ago by Robert Shiller, the Yale finance professor and Nobel laureate. According to him, a bubble is \"a market situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, bringing in a larger and larger class of investors, who, despite doubts about fundamental value, are drawn to the investment partly through envy of others' successes and partly through a gambler's excitement.\" (I italicized the above phrase, not Shiller.)<blockquote>根据耶鲁大学金融学教授、诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·希勒几十年前提出的定义，这种普遍的担忧与泡沫的形成完全一致。他认为，泡沫是“一种市场状况，价格上涨的消息刺激了投资者的热情，这种热情通过心理传染在人与人之间传播，带来了越来越多的投资者，尽管他们对基本价值持怀疑态度，但他们被吸引到投资中，部分是出于对他人成功的嫉妒，部分是出于赌徒的兴奋。”（上面的短语是我用斜体写的，不是席勒。）</blockquote>Notice that recognition of overvaluation is an integral part of the definition.<blockquote>请注意，对高估的认识是定义的一个组成部分。</blockquote>This recognition was certainly present during the weeks and months prior to the popping of the Internet bubble in March 2000. During the early and middle years of the 1990s, you may recall, it was possible to justify higher prices while keeping a straight face. But that became less and less possible as prices continued going higher in the late 1990s, and especially as some dot-com companies went public with huge valuations despite having no assets, revenue or business plan.<blockquote>在2000年3月互联网泡沫破裂之前的几周和几个月里，这种认识肯定是存在的。你可能还记得，在20世纪90年代早期和中期，有可能在板着脸的同时证明更高的价格是合理的。但随着20世纪90年代末价格持续走高，尤其是一些互联网公司尽管没有资产、收入或商业计划，但仍以巨额估值上市，这种可能性变得越来越小。</blockquote>Rather than responding by taking some chips off the table, however, many began freely admitting that a bubble was forming. They no longer tried to justify higher prices on fundamentals, but began justifying it instead in terms of the market's momentum. Prices should keep going up as FOMO seduces more and more investors to jump on the bandwagon.<blockquote>然而，许多人并没有拿出一些筹码作为回应，而是开始坦率地承认泡沫正在形成。他们不再试图用基本面来证明价格上涨的合理性，而是开始用市场的势头来证明价格上涨的合理性。随着FOMO吸引越来越多的投资者加入这股潮流，价格应该会继续上涨。</blockquote>There is no shortage of current analogies, of course. Take dogecoin, which was created as a joke and has no fundamental value. As a recent Wall Street Journal article outlined , the dogecoin \"serves no purpose and, unlike Bitcoin, faces no limit on the number of coins that exist.\" Yet investors are flocking to it, for no other apparent reason than it has already gone up so much. Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin, was quoted in that Wall Street Journal article saying \"This is absurd. I haven't seen anything like it. It's one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.\"<blockquote>当然，当前不乏类比。以狗狗币为例，它是作为一个笑话创造的，没有根本价值。正如《华尔街日报》最近的一篇文章所概述的那样，狗狗币“没有任何用途，而且与比特币不同，存在的硬币数量没有限制。”然而，投资者正涌向它，没有其他明显的原因，只是它已经上涨了这么多。《华尔街日报》的那篇文章援引狗狗币联合创始人比利·马库斯的话说，“这太荒谬了。我从未见过类似的事情。这是那种一旦开始上涨，可能会继续上涨的事情。”</blockquote>Needless to say, things don't go up forever. Those who nevertheless continue to invest in such an environment do so with the implicit assumption that they will be able to recognize it, in advance, when the bubble is about to pop--and therefore able to leave the party before everyone else. This is a dangerous delusion, however; not everyone can be the first to leave the party.<blockquote>不用说，事情不会永远上涨。然而，那些继续在这样一个环境中投资的人隐含着这样一种假设，即当泡沫即将破裂时，他们将能够提前认识到这一点，因此能够在其他人之前离开聚会。然而，这是一种危险的错觉；不是每个人都能第一个离开聚会。</blockquote>The bottom line? Far from being a reason why a bubble isn't forming, the widespread current concern about a possible bubble is actually a reason to worry that it could be. Take heed.<blockquote>底线？目前对可能出现泡沫的广泛担忧远不是泡沫没有形成的原因，实际上是担心泡沫可能形成的原因。小心点。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-psychology-of-a-stock-market-bubble-11619198164?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-psychology-of-a-stock-market-bubble-11619198164?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129296363","content_text":"Worry about a bubble is widespread at the top of a bubbleSometimes people are drawn to investing because of 'gambler's excitement' Getty Images/iStockphotoI have no idea whether the stock market is actually forming a bubble that's about to break.But I do know that many bulls are fooling themselves when they think a bubble can't happen when so many of us are concerned about one. In fact, one of the distinguishing characteristics of a bubble is that such concern is widespread.This seems counterintuitive. You would think that a bubble is most vulnerable to forming and then popping when investors are oblivious to that possibility. But you would be wrong.It's important for all of us to be aware of this bubble psychology, but especially if you're a retiree or a near-retiree. That's because, in that case, your investment horizon will be shorter than for those who are younger, and you therefore are less able to recover from the deflation of a market bubble.To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term \"stock market bubble.\" Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.This widespread concern is entirely consistent with a bubble's formation, according to a definition proposed several decades ago by Robert Shiller, the Yale finance professor and Nobel laureate. According to him, a bubble is \"a market situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, bringing in a larger and larger class of investors, who, despite doubts about fundamental value, are drawn to the investment partly through envy of others' successes and partly through a gambler's excitement.\" (I italicized the above phrase, not Shiller.)Notice that recognition of overvaluation is an integral part of the definition.This recognition was certainly present during the weeks and months prior to the popping of the Internet bubble in March 2000. During the early and middle years of the 1990s, you may recall, it was possible to justify higher prices while keeping a straight face. But that became less and less possible as prices continued going higher in the late 1990s, and especially as some dot-com companies went public with huge valuations despite having no assets, revenue or business plan.Rather than responding by taking some chips off the table, however, many began freely admitting that a bubble was forming. They no longer tried to justify higher prices on fundamentals, but began justifying it instead in terms of the market's momentum. Prices should keep going up as FOMO seduces more and more investors to jump on the bandwagon.There is no shortage of current analogies, of course. Take dogecoin, which was created as a joke and has no fundamental value. As a recent Wall Street Journal article outlined , the dogecoin \"serves no purpose and, unlike Bitcoin, faces no limit on the number of coins that exist.\" Yet investors are flocking to it, for no other apparent reason than it has already gone up so much. Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin, was quoted in that Wall Street Journal article saying \"This is absurd. I haven't seen anything like it. It's one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.\"Needless to say, things don't go up forever. Those who nevertheless continue to invest in such an environment do so with the implicit assumption that they will be able to recognize it, in advance, when the bubble is about to pop--and therefore able to leave the party before everyone else. This is a dangerous delusion, however; not everyone can be the first to leave the party.The bottom line? Far from being a reason why a bubble isn't forming, the widespread current concern about a possible bubble is actually a reason to worry that it could be. Take heed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1515,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}