社区

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$  

Global Equity Markets

- **US Markets**:  

  - **S&P 500**: Trading near **5,180**, up 0.3% pre-market, led by tech (NVIDIA +2%, Meta +1.5%) as AI optimism persists. Resistance at **5,200**; support at **5,150**.  

  - **Nasdaq**: Gained 0.8%, driven by semiconductor stocks (AMD +3%) and cloud giants (Microsoft +1.2%).  

  - **Dow Jones**: Flat as Boeing (-2%) and Walmart (-1%) offset gains in financials (JPMorgan +1%).  

- **Asia-Pacific**:  

  - **Nikkei**: Rose 0.9% to **40,800**, supported by yen weakness (USD/JPY at **151.00**) and strong machinery orders.  

  - **Hang Seng**: Fell 1.5% on China’s weak trade data (exports -7.5% YoY). Tech (Tencent -3%) and property stocks slumped.  

  - **ASX 200**: Down 0.2% as mining stocks (BHP -2%) dragged on iron ore price declines.  

- **Europe**:  

  - **DAX**: Up 0.4% to **18,100**, led by industrials (Siemens +2%) and green energy plays (Siemens Energy +4%).  

  - **FTSE 100**: Flat as energy (BP -1%) offset gains in consumer staples (Unilever +1.5%).  

Forex & Central Banks

- **USD (DXY)**: Steady at **103.70** post-Powell’s testimony (hinted at "no rush" to cut rates). Focus shifts to Friday’s jobs data.  

- **EUR/USD**: Testing **1.0900** resistance; ECB’s Lagarde signals June rate cut if inflation eases to 2%.  

- **USD/JPY**: Holds **151.00** as BOJ maintains ultra-loose policy despite rising wage pressures.  

- **GBP/USD**: Down 0.2% to **1.2700** after weak UK services PMI (53.8 vs. 54.3 expected).  

Commodities

- **Oil**: **Brent crude** fell 1% to **$81.50/bbl** on rising US inventories (+5.3M barrels) and Gaza ceasefire talks.  

- **Gold**: Edged up to **$2,130/oz** amid Middle East tensions; resistance at **$2,150**.  

- **Copper**: Dropped 1.5% to **$8,750/ton** on China’s sluggish industrial demand.  

Key Events & Data Today

1. **US Jobless Claims (8:30 ET)**: Forecast **210K** (prior 215K). A miss could revive rate-cut bets.  

2. **Fed’s Mester Speech (12:00 ET)**: Hawkish tone expected to temper market optimism.  

3. **Eurozone GDP Revision (5:00 ET)**: Expected to confirm **0.0% QoQ growth** (stagnation).  

Technical Outlook

- **S&P 500**: Bullish above **5,150**; break above **5,200** opens path to **5,250**.  

- **Bitcoin**: Volatile near **$66,000** (resistance at **$68,000**; support at **$63,000**).  

- **Gold (XAU/USD)**: Bullish above **$2,100**; next target **$2,150**.  

Risks & Trends

1. **Fed Patience**: Strong jobs data Friday could delay rate cuts, pressuring growth stocks.  

2. **China Trade Woes**: Export slump signals weaker global demand, hitting commodities and EM equities.  

3. **Tech Valuations**: AI-driven rally faces scrutiny as NVIDIA’s P/E nears **70x**.  

Conclusion: 

Markets await **US jobs data** and Fed signals, with tech leading gains amid mixed global sentiment. Gold and Bitcoin remain hedges against geopolitical risks, while oil struggles with oversupply.  

- **Jobless claims**: A surprise drop could strengthen the USD.  

- **Fed rhetoric**: Hawkish comments may trigger profit-taking in equities.  

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Bearish $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Bullish