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Which Bank Stocks Will Perform Best in 2025?

Here’s my take, blending data and a bit of intuition:

Top Pick: JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

JPMorgan’s dominance, diversified revenue streams, and ability to capitalize on both NII growth and investment banking make it the safest bet for outperformance. Its 56% gain in 2024 shows momentum, and it’s best positioned for a “cyclical inferno” (as BofA’s Savita Subramanian calls it) driven by Fed cuts, deregulation, and profit acceleration.

Strong Contender: Bank of America (BAC)

BAC offers a compelling mix of value and growth. At $47, it’s trading below some analyst targets (e.g., $52), and its NII forecast ($15.7 billion by Q4) plus a 2.51% dividend yield suggest total returns could hit 20-27% in 2025, per some X sentiment. It’s less flashy than JPM but a solid pick if you want exposure to both consumer and investment banking upside.

Dark Horse: Citigroup (C)

If Citi’s turnaround gains traction, it could outperform on a risk-adjusted basis. It’s cheaper than BAC or JPM and could see a bigger lift from regulatory relief or M&A activity.

Wildcard: Goldman Sachs (GS)

GS could lead if dealmaking explodes, but its volatility makes it riskier. It’s a boom-or-bust play compared to BAC’s steadier profile.

Conclusion

Bank of America is well-positioned for a strong 2025, with NII growth, wealth management gains, and deregulation tailwinds supporting a potential 20%+ return. However, JPMorgan Chase edges it out as the likely top performer due to its sheer scale and momentum. If you’re picking one, JPM’s the king; if you want a balanced bet, BAC’s your sleeper value. Citi and Goldman are worth watching, but regionals look like a pass unless you’re hunting bargains. Keep an eye on Fed moves and Trump’s policy rollout—those will be the real swing factors.