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2021-12-13

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Taper pace and path to liftoff set the themes for Fed meeting this week<blockquote>缩减步伐和起飞路径为本周美联储会议设定了主题</blockquote>

Last week's consumer inflation reading reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve will quicke

Taper pace and path to liftoff set the themes for Fed meeting this week<blockquote>缩减步伐和起飞路径为本周美联储会议设定了主题</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":604341968,"tweetId":"604341968","gmtCreate":1639354721573,"gmtModify":1639354721699,"author":{"id":3578003727844992,"idStr":"3578003727844992","authorId":3578003727844992,"authorIdStr":"3578003727844992","name":"olddirtbag","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Comment</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Comment</body></html>","text":"Comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604341968","repostId":1155743884,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155743884","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639353588,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155743884?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taper pace and path to liftoff set the themes for Fed meeting this week<blockquote>缩减步伐和起飞路径为本周美联储会议设定了主题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155743884","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Last week's consumer inflation reading reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve will quicke","content":" Last week's consumer inflation reading reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve will quicken its pace to taper asset purchases, setting the stage for an earlier rate increase when the central banks' policymakers meet on Tuesday and Wednesday.<blockquote>上周的消费者通胀数据强化了美联储将加快缩减资产购买步伐的说法，为央行政策制定者周二和周三开会时提前加息奠定了基础。</blockquote> Investors will also gain insight on the central bankers' expectations for when rates will rise with the release of the \"Summary of Economic Projections,\" especially the closely watched \"dot-plot.\"<blockquote>随着“经济预测摘要”的发布，尤其是备受关注的“点阵图”，投资者还将深入了解央行官员对何时加息的预期。</blockquote> Expect to see a change in timing for winding down its purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. At their November meeting, the Fed said it planned to reduce purchases by $15B per month, setting a pace to end the purchases in mid-2022.<blockquote>预计逐步减少购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的时间会发生变化。在11月的会议上，美联储表示计划每月减少15B美元的购买，为2022年中期结束购买设定了步伐。</blockquote> Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already said it's time to talk about speeding up the taper by a few months. \"At this point, the economy is very strong\" and inflation is elevated, he said at his testimony in Congress on Nov. 30.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已经表示，是时候讨论将缩减规模加快几个月了。他11月30日在国会作证时表示，“目前经济非常强劲”，通胀也很高。</blockquote> Since those comments, the November jobs and inflation numbers have come out. The jobs report presented mixed signals, with the number of jobs created last month far below the consensus, but the unemployment rate better than expected (at 4.2%, approaching its prepandemic rate of 3.5%) and an improved labor force participation rate.<blockquote>自这些评论发表以来，11月份的就业和通胀数据已经公布。就业报告给出了喜忧参半的信号，上个月创造的就业岗位数量远低于共识，但失业率好于预期（4.2%，接近疫情前3.5%的水平），劳动力参与率也有所改善。</blockquote> The consumer price index, which gauges inflation, jumped the most in 39 years in November, but came in about as expected. Especially with the jobs number, keep in mind that month-to-month numbers can be volatile. For example, the number of jobs created in November could be revised up when the December numbers come out in early January.<blockquote>衡量通胀的消费者价格指数11月份出现39年来最大涨幅，但与预期大致相同。尤其是就业数字，请记住，逐月的数字可能会波动。例如，当1月初公布12月份的数据时，11月份创造的就业岗位数量可能会被上调。</blockquote> The inflation report \"confirms that the Fed is on track to begin hiking rates at some point next year,\" Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo told Bloomberg News. \"I think this keeps them on track to see the dots move up pretty notably when we get the forecast next week.\"<blockquote>富国银行高级经济学家莎拉·豪斯(Sarah House)告诉彭博新闻社，通胀报告“证实美联储有望在明年某个时候开始加息”。“我认为这使他们能够在下周得到预测时看到这些点显着上升。”</blockquote> The strong November CPI data \"only solidify the case for a faster tapering of asset purchases,\" Rubeela Farooqi, Highway Frequency Economics' chief U.S. economist, told Reuters. \"More important will be Chair Powell's message on tightening of policy going forward.\"<blockquote>Highway Frequency Economics首席美国经济学家鲁比拉·法鲁奇(Rubeela Farooqi)对路透社表示，强劲的11月CPI数据“只会巩固更快缩减资产购买的理由”。“更重要的是鲍威尔主席关于未来收紧政策的信息。”</blockquote> \"I think that their plan right now probably is three rate hikes next year, four rate hikes in 2023,\" David Kelly, J.P. Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理首席全球策略师David Kelly在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“我认为他们现在的计划可能是明年加息三次，2023年加息四次。”</blockquote> In the September meeting dot-plot, most Fed officials expected the first rate increase in 2023, with a few pulling the first rate hike to 2022.<blockquote>在9月会议点阵图中，大多数美联储官员预计2023年首次加息，少数官员将首次加息推迟到2022年。</blockquote> The federal funds rate target range currently stands at 0.0%-0.25%. The central bankers said it expected to increase its Treasury holdings by at least $60B per month and increase it agency MBS holdings by at least $30B month, down from its prior pace of $80B of Treasurys and $40B of MBS in October.<blockquote>联邦基金利率目标区间目前为0.0%-0.25%。央行行长们表示，预计每月将至少增加600亿美元的国债持有量，每月将至少增加300亿美元的it机构MBS持有量，低于10月份800亿美元的国债和400亿美元的MBS持有量。</blockquote> The CME FedWatch tool shows that more traders are pulling up their expectation for a rate hike. The probability of a 25-50 basis-point rate hike for the March meeting rises to 34.2%, up from a 25.9% probability a week ago.<blockquote>CME FedWatch工具显示，更多交易员正在上调加息预期。3月会议加息25-50个基点的概率升至34.2%，高于一周前的25.9%。</blockquote> The probability of a 25-50 bps hike in May increased to 43.2% from 38.4% a week ago, and there's a 13.1% probability of a 50-75 bps increase.<blockquote>5月份加息25-50个基点的概率从一周前的38.4%上升至43.2%，加息50-75个基点的概率为13.1%。</blockquote> SGH Macro Advisors Chief U.S. Economist Tim Duy sees a \"high probability that the Fed hikes rates in March,\" although he doesn't expect the policymakers will pencil in that timeline on the dot-plot. \"Where the Fed is now and where the Fed is in three months are two different things,\" he wrote in a note dated Dec. 7.<blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors首席美国经济学家Tim Duy认为“美联储很有可能在3月份加息”，尽管他预计政策制定者不会在点阵图上写下这一时间表。他在12月7日的一份报告中写道：“美联储现在的处境和三个月后的处境是两回事。”</blockquote> SA contributor John M. Mason sees complications in the Fed's taper due to the massive amounts of reverse repurchase agreements it has used to keep the effective federal funds rate positive.<blockquote>SA撰稿人约翰·M·梅森(John M.Mason)认为，由于美联储使用大量逆回购协议来保持有效联邦基金利率为正值，美联储缩减规模会变得复杂。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taper pace and path to liftoff set the themes for Fed meeting this week<blockquote>缩减步伐和起飞路径为本周美联储会议设定了主题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaper pace and path to liftoff set the themes for Fed meeting this week<blockquote>缩减步伐和起飞路径为本周美联储会议设定了主题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-12-13 07:59\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Last week's consumer inflation reading reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve will quicken its pace to taper asset purchases, setting the stage for an earlier rate increase when the central banks' policymakers meet on Tuesday and Wednesday.<blockquote>上周的消费者通胀数据强化了美联储将加快缩减资产购买步伐的说法，为央行政策制定者周二和周三开会时提前加息奠定了基础。</blockquote> Investors will also gain insight on the central bankers' expectations for when rates will rise with the release of the \"Summary of Economic Projections,\" especially the closely watched \"dot-plot.\"<blockquote>随着“经济预测摘要”的发布，尤其是备受关注的“点阵图”，投资者还将深入了解央行官员对何时加息的预期。</blockquote> Expect to see a change in timing for winding down its purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. At their November meeting, the Fed said it planned to reduce purchases by $15B per month, setting a pace to end the purchases in mid-2022.<blockquote>预计逐步减少购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的时间会发生变化。在11月的会议上，美联储表示计划每月减少15B美元的购买，为2022年中期结束购买设定了步伐。</blockquote> Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already said it's time to talk about speeding up the taper by a few months. \"At this point, the economy is very strong\" and inflation is elevated, he said at his testimony in Congress on Nov. 30.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已经表示，是时候讨论将缩减规模加快几个月了。他11月30日在国会作证时表示，“目前经济非常强劲”，通胀也很高。</blockquote> Since those comments, the November jobs and inflation numbers have come out. The jobs report presented mixed signals, with the number of jobs created last month far below the consensus, but the unemployment rate better than expected (at 4.2%, approaching its prepandemic rate of 3.5%) and an improved labor force participation rate.<blockquote>自这些评论发表以来，11月份的就业和通胀数据已经公布。就业报告给出了喜忧参半的信号，上个月创造的就业岗位数量远低于共识，但失业率好于预期（4.2%，接近疫情前3.5%的水平），劳动力参与率也有所改善。</blockquote> The consumer price index, which gauges inflation, jumped the most in 39 years in November, but came in about as expected. Especially with the jobs number, keep in mind that month-to-month numbers can be volatile. For example, the number of jobs created in November could be revised up when the December numbers come out in early January.<blockquote>衡量通胀的消费者价格指数11月份出现39年来最大涨幅，但与预期大致相同。尤其是就业数字，请记住，逐月的数字可能会波动。例如，当1月初公布12月份的数据时，11月份创造的就业岗位数量可能会被上调。</blockquote> The inflation report \"confirms that the Fed is on track to begin hiking rates at some point next year,\" Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo told Bloomberg News. \"I think this keeps them on track to see the dots move up pretty notably when we get the forecast next week.\"<blockquote>富国银行高级经济学家莎拉·豪斯(Sarah House)告诉彭博新闻社，通胀报告“证实美联储有望在明年某个时候开始加息”。“我认为这使他们能够在下周得到预测时看到这些点显着上升。”</blockquote> The strong November CPI data \"only solidify the case for a faster tapering of asset purchases,\" Rubeela Farooqi, Highway Frequency Economics' chief U.S. economist, told Reuters. \"More important will be Chair Powell's message on tightening of policy going forward.\"<blockquote>Highway Frequency Economics首席美国经济学家鲁比拉·法鲁奇(Rubeela Farooqi)对路透社表示，强劲的11月CPI数据“只会巩固更快缩减资产购买的理由”。“更重要的是鲍威尔主席关于未来收紧政策的信息。”</blockquote> \"I think that their plan right now probably is three rate hikes next year, four rate hikes in 2023,\" David Kelly, J.P. Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理首席全球策略师David Kelly在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“我认为他们现在的计划可能是明年加息三次，2023年加息四次。”</blockquote> In the September meeting dot-plot, most Fed officials expected the first rate increase in 2023, with a few pulling the first rate hike to 2022.<blockquote>在9月会议点阵图中，大多数美联储官员预计2023年首次加息，少数官员将首次加息推迟到2022年。</blockquote> The federal funds rate target range currently stands at 0.0%-0.25%. The central bankers said it expected to increase its Treasury holdings by at least $60B per month and increase it agency MBS holdings by at least $30B month, down from its prior pace of $80B of Treasurys and $40B of MBS in October.<blockquote>联邦基金利率目标区间目前为0.0%-0.25%。央行行长们表示，预计每月将至少增加600亿美元的国债持有量，每月将至少增加300亿美元的it机构MBS持有量，低于10月份800亿美元的国债和400亿美元的MBS持有量。</blockquote> The CME FedWatch tool shows that more traders are pulling up their expectation for a rate hike. The probability of a 25-50 basis-point rate hike for the March meeting rises to 34.2%, up from a 25.9% probability a week ago.<blockquote>CME FedWatch工具显示，更多交易员正在上调加息预期。3月会议加息25-50个基点的概率升至34.2%，高于一周前的25.9%。</blockquote> The probability of a 25-50 bps hike in May increased to 43.2% from 38.4% a week ago, and there's a 13.1% probability of a 50-75 bps increase.<blockquote>5月份加息25-50个基点的概率从一周前的38.4%上升至43.2%，加息50-75个基点的概率为13.1%。</blockquote> SGH Macro Advisors Chief U.S. Economist Tim Duy sees a \"high probability that the Fed hikes rates in March,\" although he doesn't expect the policymakers will pencil in that timeline on the dot-plot. \"Where the Fed is now and where the Fed is in three months are two different things,\" he wrote in a note dated Dec. 7.<blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors首席美国经济学家Tim Duy认为“美联储很有可能在3月份加息”，尽管他预计政策制定者不会在点阵图上写下这一时间表。他在12月7日的一份报告中写道：“美联储现在的处境和三个月后的处境是两回事。”</blockquote> SA contributor John M. Mason sees complications in the Fed's taper due to the massive amounts of reverse repurchase agreements it has used to keep the effective federal funds rate positive.<blockquote>SA撰稿人约翰·M·梅森(John M.Mason)认为，由于美联储使用大量逆回购协议来保持有效联邦基金利率为正值，美联储缩减规模会变得复杂。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779240-taper-pace-and-path-to-liftoff-set-to-the-themes-for-fed-meeting-this-week\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779240-taper-pace-and-path-to-liftoff-set-to-the-themes-for-fed-meeting-this-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155743884","content_text":"Last week's consumer inflation reading reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve will quicken its pace to taper asset purchases, setting the stage for an earlier rate increase when the central banks' policymakers meet on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nInvestors will also gain insight on the central bankers' expectations for when rates will rise with the release of the \"Summary of Economic Projections,\" especially the closely watched \"dot-plot.\"\nExpect to see a change in timing for winding down its purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. At their November meeting, the Fed said it planned to reduce purchases by $15B per month, setting a pace to end the purchases in mid-2022.\nFed Chair Jerome Powell has already said it's time to talk about speeding up the taper by a few months. \"At this point, the economy is very strong\" and inflation is elevated, he said at his testimony in Congress on Nov. 30.\nSince those comments, the November jobs and inflation numbers have come out. The jobs report presented mixed signals, with the number of jobs created last month far below the consensus, but the unemployment rate better than expected (at 4.2%, approaching its prepandemic rate of 3.5%) and an improved labor force participation rate.\nThe consumer price index, which gauges inflation, jumped the most in 39 years in November, but came in about as expected. Especially with the jobs number, keep in mind that month-to-month numbers can be volatile. For example, the number of jobs created in November could be revised up when the December numbers come out in early January.\nThe inflation report \"confirms that the Fed is on track to begin hiking rates at some point next year,\" Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo told Bloomberg News. \"I think this keeps them on track to see the dots move up pretty notably when we get the forecast next week.\"\nThe strong November CPI data \"only solidify the case for a faster tapering of asset purchases,\" Rubeela Farooqi, Highway Frequency Economics' chief U.S. economist, told Reuters. \"More important will be Chair Powell's message on tightening of policy going forward.\"\n\"I think that their plan right now probably is three rate hikes next year, four rate hikes in 2023,\" David Kelly, J.P. Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.\nIn the September meeting dot-plot, most Fed officials expected the first rate increase in 2023, with a few pulling the first rate hike to 2022.\nThe federal funds rate target range currently stands at 0.0%-0.25%. The central bankers said it expected to increase its Treasury holdings by at least $60B per month and increase it agency MBS holdings by at least $30B month, down from its prior pace of $80B of Treasurys and $40B of MBS in October.\nThe CME FedWatch tool shows that more traders are pulling up their expectation for a rate hike. The probability of a 25-50 basis-point rate hike for the March meeting rises to 34.2%, up from a 25.9% probability a week ago.\nThe probability of a 25-50 bps hike in May increased to 43.2% from 38.4% a week ago, and there's a 13.1% probability of a 50-75 bps increase.\nSGH Macro Advisors Chief U.S. Economist Tim Duy sees a \"high probability that the Fed hikes rates in March,\" although he doesn't expect the policymakers will pencil in that timeline on the dot-plot. \"Where the Fed is now and where the Fed is in three months are two different things,\" he wrote in a note dated Dec. 7.\nSA contributor John M. Mason sees complications in the Fed's taper due to the massive amounts of reverse repurchase agreements it has used to keep the effective federal funds rate positive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2459,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Taper pace and path to liftoff set the themes for Fed meeting this week<blockquote>缩减步伐和起飞路径为本周美联储会议设定了主题</blockquote>

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