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2021-12-29

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These 3 Indicators May Predict How the Stock Market Performs in 2022: Analyst<blockquote>分析师：这3个指标可能预测2022年股市的表现</blockquote>

Christmas may be over, but for investors, the gifts may have only just begun. The "Santa Claus Rally

These 3 Indicators May Predict How the Stock Market Performs in 2022: Analyst<blockquote>分析师：这3个指标可能预测2022年股市的表现</blockquote>

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The S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) set a record high for the second consecutive day on Tuesday,subsequently falling&nbsp;a bit in light of a small midday tech stock sell-off.<blockquote>“圣诞老人集会”看起来会让2021年成为股市的高潮。标普500(^GSPC)周二连续第二天创下历史新高，随后因午盘科技股小幅抛售而小幅下跌。</blockquote> ‘Ho, ho ho’, stocks on the rise?<blockquote>“嗬，嗬嗬”，股票在上涨？</blockquote> The last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year together are often the biggest week of the year for the market. The 1.2% average growth in the S&amp;P 500 over the period since 1945 is the largest of any seven-day period.<blockquote>一年的最后五个交易日和下一年的前两个交易日加在一起，往往是市场一年中最大的一周。自1945年以来，标普500 1.2%的平均增长率是任何七天期间最大的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c54ea712b8fce648fa682efa965a15a\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">A trader wears a Santa hat as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange the day before Christmas in New York December 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson<blockquote>2015年12月24日，圣诞节前一天，纽约，一名交易员戴着圣诞帽在纽约证券交易所工作。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊</blockquote> Why do these days perform so well historically?Animal spirits, as the 20th century economist John Maynard Keynes might put it, have a lot to do with the Santa Clause Rally.<blockquote>为什么这些日子在历史上表现如此出色？正如20世纪经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯可能会说的那样，动物精神与圣诞老人集会有很大关系。</blockquote> “It's [the result of] sentiment,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, on the causes of the rally. “Because [investors know that] if the market does well in the month of January, then it usually does well for the full year. But if we find that a lot of money has flowed into the markets, right off the bat, then the indication is that it's likely to be a very good year.”<blockquote>CFRA Research首席投资策略师Sam Stovall在谈到上涨原因时表示：“这是情绪的结果。”“因为（投资者知道）如果市场在一月份表现良好，那么全年通常都会表现良好。但如果我们发现大量资金立即流入市场，那么有迹象表明今年可能是非常好的一年。”</blockquote> Investors anticipate that the period is coming, and that equity prices are about to rise, so they are more likely to invest money to earn higher returns, Stovall explained.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔解释说，投资者预计这一时期即将到来，股价即将上涨，因此他们更有可能投资以获得更高的回报。</blockquote> Though the sentiments behind the Santa Clause Rally may appear to be begging-the-question, there is nothing mythical about its results.<blockquote>尽管圣诞老人集会背后的情绪似乎是在回避问题，但其结果并没有什么神秘之处。</blockquote> According to a recent research note published by Stovall, years following a Santa Claus Rally period with a price increase, experienced an S&amp;P 500 growth rate of 10.3%, higher than the average rate of 9.2% (since 1945).<blockquote>根据Stovall最近发布的一份研究报告，在价格上涨的圣诞老人反弹期之后的几年里，标普500增长率为10.3%，高于9.2%的平均增长率（自1945年以来）。</blockquote> January Barometers<blockquote>一月晴雨表</blockquote> Two other barometers exist for investors eager to predict the outlook for 2022’s market, both of them involving market performance during the month of January, Stovall wrote. The first five days of January are a great indicator for the rest of the month’s performance.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔写道，对于渴望预测2022年市场前景的投资者来说，还有另外两个晴雨表，这两个晴雨表都涉及1月份的市场表现。一月的前五天是该月剩余时间表现的一个很好的指标。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e3e7627b845414da42f555bc4db069\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">A screen displays a stock update on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., December 28, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly<blockquote>2021年12月28日，美国纽约市曼哈顿的纽约证券交易所(NYSE)交易大厅，屏幕显示股票更新。路透社/安德鲁·凯利</blockquote> “The first five days offer an early warning signal as to how the market will likely perform during the entire month,” Stovall wrote in the CFRA report. “And it has done so with impressive accuracy, being correct two out of every three years for both up and down signals. What’s more, a positive showing for the equity market during the first five days of January improved the likelihood of an annual price increase by 12.8%, as well as an improvement in the FoA to 82%.”<blockquote>斯托瓦尔在CFRA报告中写道：“前五天为市场整个月的表现提供了早期预警信号。”“而且它的准确性令人印象深刻，每三年就有两次上涨和下跌信号是正确的。更重要的是，1月份前五天股市的积极表现提高了年度价格上涨的可能性12.8%，FoA提高至82%。”</blockquote> And as the old Wall Street adage goes, ‘So goes January, so goes the year.’ The third indicator, which Stovall dubbed “the January Barometer,” draws a correlation between the performance of the market in January and the succeeding 11 months.<blockquote>正如华尔街的一句老话所说，“一月如此，一年也如此。”第三个指标被斯托瓦尔称为“一月晴雨表”，它将1月份的市场表现与随后11个月的表现联系起来。</blockquote> “Should the S&amp;P 500 go on to record a positive performance in the entire month of January, it has historically enhanced the possibility of a positive full-year performance, as the average annual price gain rose to 15.9% and the FoA (Frequency of Advance) increased to 87%,” the report noted.<blockquote>“如果标普500在整个1月份继续录得积极表现，那么从历史上看，全年表现积极的可能性就会增强，因为年均价格涨幅升至15.9%，FoA（提前频率）增加到87%，”报告指出。</blockquote> The biggest conclusion investors should draw from the barometers is that there is significant enough data to presume a causal relationship between the late December/January market performance and the larger year’s performance, Stovall said.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示，投资者应该从晴雨表中得出的最大结论是，有足够重要的数据可以假设12月下旬/1月的市场表现与全年表现之间存在因果关系。</blockquote> “Not all of the year’s price gains were concentrated in the first month of the year, as a rise for the S&amp;P 500 in January was followed by an average 11.3% climb for the remaining 11 months of the year, with the market posting an 11-month FoA 83% of the time,” he wrote in the report.<blockquote>“并非今年的所有价格上涨都集中在今年的第一个月，因为1月份标普500上涨后，今年剩余11个月平均上涨11.3%，市场公布了11个月的FoA 83%的时间，”他在报告中写道。</blockquote> Though January’s gains appear to set the standard for the rest of the year by setting investor attitudes and expectations, Stovall stressed that these indicators are not guarantees.<blockquote>尽管1月份的涨幅似乎通过设定投资者的态度和预期为今年剩余时间设定了标准，但斯托瓦尔强调，这些指标并不是保证。</blockquote> “Investors should always view history as a great guide, but never gospel,” he said. Past performance “gives a pretty strong hint of what might happen, but certainly no guarantee.”<blockquote>“投资者应该始终将历史视为伟大的指南，但绝不是福音，”他说。过去的表现“很强烈地暗示了可能发生的事情，但肯定不能保证。”</blockquote> In 2022, the market will likely encounter challenges from the ongoing COVID pandemic as well as high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control it.<blockquote>2022年，市场可能会遇到持续的新冠疫情以及高通胀和美联储控制通胀的努力的挑战。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c6b1ff968cfd5507f8c17566398310\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">NEW YORK, USA - DECEMBER 28: A man is getting a Covid-19 test at a Covid-19 testing center next to the Queens Hospital Center as hundreds of residents line up to get Covid-19 test in Queens of New York, United States on December 28, 2021 as Omicron rises around the country. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)More<blockquote>美国纽约——12月28日：2021年12月28日，美国纽约皇后区，一名男子正在皇后区医院中心旁边的新冠肺炎检测中心接受新冠肺炎检测，数百名居民排队接受新冠肺炎检测，全国奥密克戎加剧。（摄影：Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency，盖蒂图片社）更多</blockquote> “When you think about some of the headwinds that could upset the track record of these different barometers, should they all be triggered,” Stovall said, adding the next COVID variant should be a top concern.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔说：“当你想到一些可能扰乱这些不同晴雨表记录的不利因素时，如果它们都被触发的话。”他补充说，下一个新冠病毒变种应该是最令人担忧的。</blockquote> The Omicron variant has been the latest strain of the coronavirus to spread throughout&nbsp;all 50 U.S. states. Though recent research suggests that Omicron cases are&nbsp;less severe&nbsp;than previous strains of the virus, it is highly transmissible and has already had an effect on consumer demand insome industries&nbsp;while some remain relatively&nbsp;unaffected.<blockquote>奥密克戎变种是在美国所有50个州传播的最新冠状病毒株。尽管最近的研究表明，奥密克戎病例没有以前的病毒株严重，但它具有高度传染性，已经对一些行业的消费者需求产生了影响，而另一些行业则相对未受影响。</blockquote> Secondly, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to raise interest rates in response to high inflation. Many economists expect these rate hikes to begin sometime next year.<blockquote>其次，美联储明确表示有意加息以应对高通胀。许多经济学家预计这些加息将在明年某个时候开始。</blockquote> “That's a concern because if the Fed is too aggressive raising rates, that could throw the market into a tailspin,” Stovall said. “Also, historically, we have seen PE multiple contraction in a rising interest rate environment.”<blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示：“这令人担忧，因为如果美联储过于激进地加息，可能会让市场陷入混乱。”“此外，从历史上看，我们在利率上升的环境下看到PE倍数收缩。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 3 Indicators May Predict How the Stock Market Performs in 2022: Analyst<blockquote>分析师：这3个指标可能预测2022年股市的表现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 3 Indicators May Predict How the Stock Market Performs in 2022: Analyst<blockquote>分析师：这3个指标可能预测2022年股市的表现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nfinance.yahoo2021-12-29 08:39\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nChristmas may be over, but for investors, the gifts may have only just begun.<blockquote>圣诞节可能已经结束，但对于投资者来说，礼物可能才刚刚开始。</blockquote> The \"Santa Claus Rally\" looks to send 2021 off on a high note for the stock market. The S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) set a record high for the second consecutive day on Tuesday,subsequently falling&nbsp;a bit in light of a small midday tech stock sell-off.<blockquote>“圣诞老人集会”看起来会让2021年成为股市的高潮。标普500(^GSPC)周二连续第二天创下历史新高，随后因午盘科技股小幅抛售而小幅下跌。</blockquote> ‘Ho, ho ho’, stocks on the rise?<blockquote>“嗬，嗬嗬”，股票在上涨？</blockquote> The last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year together are often the biggest week of the year for the market. The 1.2% average growth in the S&amp;P 500 over the period since 1945 is the largest of any seven-day period.<blockquote>一年的最后五个交易日和下一年的前两个交易日加在一起，往往是市场一年中最大的一周。自1945年以来，标普500 1.2%的平均增长率是任何七天期间最大的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c54ea712b8fce648fa682efa965a15a\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">A trader wears a Santa hat as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange the day before Christmas in New York December 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson<blockquote>2015年12月24日，圣诞节前一天，纽约，一名交易员戴着圣诞帽在纽约证券交易所工作。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊</blockquote> Why do these days perform so well historically?Animal spirits, as the 20th century economist John Maynard Keynes might put it, have a lot to do with the Santa Clause Rally.<blockquote>为什么这些日子在历史上表现如此出色？正如20世纪经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯可能会说的那样，动物精神与圣诞老人集会有很大关系。</blockquote> “It's [the result of] sentiment,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, on the causes of the rally. “Because [investors know that] if the market does well in the month of January, then it usually does well for the full year. But if we find that a lot of money has flowed into the markets, right off the bat, then the indication is that it's likely to be a very good year.”<blockquote>CFRA Research首席投资策略师Sam Stovall在谈到上涨原因时表示：“这是情绪的结果。”“因为（投资者知道）如果市场在一月份表现良好，那么全年通常都会表现良好。但如果我们发现大量资金立即流入市场，那么有迹象表明今年可能是非常好的一年。”</blockquote> Investors anticipate that the period is coming, and that equity prices are about to rise, so they are more likely to invest money to earn higher returns, Stovall explained.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔解释说，投资者预计这一时期即将到来，股价即将上涨，因此他们更有可能投资以获得更高的回报。</blockquote> Though the sentiments behind the Santa Clause Rally may appear to be begging-the-question, there is nothing mythical about its results.<blockquote>尽管圣诞老人集会背后的情绪似乎是在回避问题，但其结果并没有什么神秘之处。</blockquote> According to a recent research note published by Stovall, years following a Santa Claus Rally period with a price increase, experienced an S&amp;P 500 growth rate of 10.3%, higher than the average rate of 9.2% (since 1945).<blockquote>根据Stovall最近发布的一份研究报告，在价格上涨的圣诞老人反弹期之后的几年里，标普500增长率为10.3%，高于9.2%的平均增长率（自1945年以来）。</blockquote> January Barometers<blockquote>一月晴雨表</blockquote> Two other barometers exist for investors eager to predict the outlook for 2022’s market, both of them involving market performance during the month of January, Stovall wrote. The first five days of January are a great indicator for the rest of the month’s performance.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔写道，对于渴望预测2022年市场前景的投资者来说，还有另外两个晴雨表，这两个晴雨表都涉及1月份的市场表现。一月的前五天是该月剩余时间表现的一个很好的指标。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e3e7627b845414da42f555bc4db069\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">A screen displays a stock update on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., December 28, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly<blockquote>2021年12月28日，美国纽约市曼哈顿的纽约证券交易所(NYSE)交易大厅，屏幕显示股票更新。路透社/安德鲁·凯利</blockquote> “The first five days offer an early warning signal as to how the market will likely perform during the entire month,” Stovall wrote in the CFRA report. “And it has done so with impressive accuracy, being correct two out of every three years for both up and down signals. What’s more, a positive showing for the equity market during the first five days of January improved the likelihood of an annual price increase by 12.8%, as well as an improvement in the FoA to 82%.”<blockquote>斯托瓦尔在CFRA报告中写道：“前五天为市场整个月的表现提供了早期预警信号。”“而且它的准确性令人印象深刻，每三年就有两次上涨和下跌信号是正确的。更重要的是，1月份前五天股市的积极表现提高了年度价格上涨的可能性12.8%，FoA提高至82%。”</blockquote> And as the old Wall Street adage goes, ‘So goes January, so goes the year.’ The third indicator, which Stovall dubbed “the January Barometer,” draws a correlation between the performance of the market in January and the succeeding 11 months.<blockquote>正如华尔街的一句老话所说，“一月如此，一年也如此。”第三个指标被斯托瓦尔称为“一月晴雨表”，它将1月份的市场表现与随后11个月的表现联系起来。</blockquote> “Should the S&amp;P 500 go on to record a positive performance in the entire month of January, it has historically enhanced the possibility of a positive full-year performance, as the average annual price gain rose to 15.9% and the FoA (Frequency of Advance) increased to 87%,” the report noted.<blockquote>“如果标普500在整个1月份继续录得积极表现，那么从历史上看，全年表现积极的可能性就会增强，因为年均价格涨幅升至15.9%，FoA（提前频率）增加到87%，”报告指出。</blockquote> The biggest conclusion investors should draw from the barometers is that there is significant enough data to presume a causal relationship between the late December/January market performance and the larger year’s performance, Stovall said.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示，投资者应该从晴雨表中得出的最大结论是，有足够重要的数据可以假设12月下旬/1月的市场表现与全年表现之间存在因果关系。</blockquote> “Not all of the year’s price gains were concentrated in the first month of the year, as a rise for the S&amp;P 500 in January was followed by an average 11.3% climb for the remaining 11 months of the year, with the market posting an 11-month FoA 83% of the time,” he wrote in the report.<blockquote>“并非今年的所有价格上涨都集中在今年的第一个月，因为1月份标普500上涨后，今年剩余11个月平均上涨11.3%，市场公布了11个月的FoA 83%的时间，”他在报告中写道。</blockquote> Though January’s gains appear to set the standard for the rest of the year by setting investor attitudes and expectations, Stovall stressed that these indicators are not guarantees.<blockquote>尽管1月份的涨幅似乎通过设定投资者的态度和预期为今年剩余时间设定了标准，但斯托瓦尔强调，这些指标并不是保证。</blockquote> “Investors should always view history as a great guide, but never gospel,” he said. Past performance “gives a pretty strong hint of what might happen, but certainly no guarantee.”<blockquote>“投资者应该始终将历史视为伟大的指南，但绝不是福音，”他说。过去的表现“很强烈地暗示了可能发生的事情，但肯定不能保证。”</blockquote> In 2022, the market will likely encounter challenges from the ongoing COVID pandemic as well as high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control it.<blockquote>2022年，市场可能会遇到持续的新冠疫情以及高通胀和美联储控制通胀的努力的挑战。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c6b1ff968cfd5507f8c17566398310\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">NEW YORK, USA - DECEMBER 28: A man is getting a Covid-19 test at a Covid-19 testing center next to the Queens Hospital Center as hundreds of residents line up to get Covid-19 test in Queens of New York, United States on December 28, 2021 as Omicron rises around the country. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)More<blockquote>美国纽约——12月28日：2021年12月28日，美国纽约皇后区，一名男子正在皇后区医院中心旁边的新冠肺炎检测中心接受新冠肺炎检测，数百名居民排队接受新冠肺炎检测，全国奥密克戎加剧。（摄影：Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency，盖蒂图片社）更多</blockquote> “When you think about some of the headwinds that could upset the track record of these different barometers, should they all be triggered,” Stovall said, adding the next COVID variant should be a top concern.<blockquote>斯托瓦尔说：“当你想到一些可能扰乱这些不同晴雨表记录的不利因素时，如果它们都被触发的话。”他补充说，下一个新冠病毒变种应该是最令人担忧的。</blockquote> The Omicron variant has been the latest strain of the coronavirus to spread throughout&nbsp;all 50 U.S. states. Though recent research suggests that Omicron cases are&nbsp;less severe&nbsp;than previous strains of the virus, it is highly transmissible and has already had an effect on consumer demand insome industries&nbsp;while some remain relatively&nbsp;unaffected.<blockquote>奥密克戎变种是在美国所有50个州传播的最新冠状病毒株。尽管最近的研究表明，奥密克戎病例没有以前的病毒株严重，但它具有高度传染性，已经对一些行业的消费者需求产生了影响，而另一些行业则相对未受影响。</blockquote> Secondly, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to raise interest rates in response to high inflation. Many economists expect these rate hikes to begin sometime next year.<blockquote>其次，美联储明确表示有意加息以应对高通胀。许多经济学家预计这些加息将在明年某个时候开始。</blockquote> “That's a concern because if the Fed is too aggressive raising rates, that could throw the market into a tailspin,” Stovall said. “Also, historically, we have seen PE multiple contraction in a rising interest rate environment.”<blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示：“这令人担忧，因为如果美联储过于激进地加息，可能会让市场陷入混乱。”“此外，从历史上看，我们在利率上升的环境下看到PE倍数收缩。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/these-three-indicators-may-predict-how-the-stock-market-performs-in-2022-analyst-201508279.html\">finance.yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/these-three-indicators-may-predict-how-the-stock-market-performs-in-2022-analyst-201508279.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157924593","content_text":"Christmas may be over, but for investors, the gifts may have only just begun.\nThe \"Santa Claus Rally\" looks to send 2021 off on a high note for the stock market. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) set a record high for the second consecutive day on Tuesday,subsequently falling a bit in light of a small midday tech stock sell-off.\n‘Ho, ho ho’, stocks on the rise?\nThe last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year together are often the biggest week of the year for the market. The 1.2% average growth in the S&P 500 over the period since 1945 is the largest of any seven-day period.\nA trader wears a Santa hat as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange the day before Christmas in New York December 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson\nWhy do these days perform so well historically?Animal spirits, as the 20th century economist John Maynard Keynes might put it, have a lot to do with the Santa Clause Rally.\n“It's [the result of] sentiment,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, on the causes of the rally. “Because [investors know that] if the market does well in the month of January, then it usually does well for the full year. But if we find that a lot of money has flowed into the markets, right off the bat, then the indication is that it's likely to be a very good year.”\nInvestors anticipate that the period is coming, and that equity prices are about to rise, so they are more likely to invest money to earn higher returns, Stovall explained.\nThough the sentiments behind the Santa Clause Rally may appear to be begging-the-question, there is nothing mythical about its results.\nAccording to a recent research note published by Stovall, years following a Santa Claus Rally period with a price increase, experienced an S&P 500 growth rate of 10.3%, higher than the average rate of 9.2% (since 1945).\nJanuary Barometers\nTwo other barometers exist for investors eager to predict the outlook for 2022’s market, both of them involving market performance during the month of January, Stovall wrote. The first five days of January are a great indicator for the rest of the month’s performance.\nA screen displays a stock update on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., December 28, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly\n“The first five days offer an early warning signal as to how the market will likely perform during the entire month,” Stovall wrote in the CFRA report. “And it has done so with impressive accuracy, being correct two out of every three years for both up and down signals. What’s more, a positive showing for the equity market during the first five days of January improved the likelihood of an annual price increase by 12.8%, as well as an improvement in the FoA to 82%.”\nAnd as the old Wall Street adage goes, ‘So goes January, so goes the year.’ The third indicator, which Stovall dubbed “the January Barometer,” draws a correlation between the performance of the market in January and the succeeding 11 months.\n“Should the S&P 500 go on to record a positive performance in the entire month of January, it has historically enhanced the possibility of a positive full-year performance, as the average annual price gain rose to 15.9% and the FoA (Frequency of Advance) increased to 87%,” the report noted.\nThe biggest conclusion investors should draw from the barometers is that there is significant enough data to presume a causal relationship between the late December/January market performance and the larger year’s performance, Stovall said.\n“Not all of the year’s price gains were concentrated in the first month of the year, as a rise for the S&P 500 in January was followed by an average 11.3% climb for the remaining 11 months of the year, with the market posting an 11-month FoA 83% of the time,” he wrote in the report.\nThough January’s gains appear to set the standard for the rest of the year by setting investor attitudes and expectations, Stovall stressed that these indicators are not guarantees.\n“Investors should always view history as a great guide, but never gospel,” he said. Past performance “gives a pretty strong hint of what might happen, but certainly no guarantee.”\nIn 2022, the market will likely encounter challenges from the ongoing COVID pandemic as well as high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control it.\nNEW YORK, USA - DECEMBER 28: A man is getting a Covid-19 test at a Covid-19 testing center next to the Queens Hospital Center as hundreds of residents line up to get Covid-19 test in Queens of New York, United States on December 28, 2021 as Omicron rises around the country. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)More\n“When you think about some of the headwinds that could upset the track record of these different barometers, should they all be triggered,” Stovall said, adding the next COVID variant should be a top concern.\nThe Omicron variant has been the latest strain of the coronavirus to spread throughout all 50 U.S. states. Though recent research suggests that Omicron cases are less severe than previous strains of the virus, it is highly transmissible and has already had an effect on consumer demand insome industries while some remain relatively unaffected.\nSecondly, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to raise interest rates in response to high inflation. Many economists expect these rate hikes to begin sometime next year.\n“That's a concern because if the Fed is too aggressive raising rates, that could throw the market into a tailspin,” Stovall said. “Also, historically, we have seen PE multiple contraction in a rising interest rate environment.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2794,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}