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2021-12-28

Defensive Stocks Are the Best Offense Against a Wobbly Economy Right Now<blockquote>防御性股票是目前对抗不稳定经济的最佳进攻</blockquote>

Defensive stocks are going great guns right now. And they should keep running for a while if indicat

Defensive Stocks Are the Best Offense Against a Wobbly Economy Right Now<blockquote>防御性股票是目前对抗不稳定经济的最佳进攻</blockquote>

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And they should keep running for a while if indicat","content":"Defensive stocks are going great guns right now. And they should keep running for a while if indicators are right.<blockquote>防御性股票现在表现出色。如果指标正确，它们应该会继续运行一段时间。</blockquote> Look at what they’ve done against the S&amp;P 500, for example.<blockquote>例如，看看他们对标普500做了什么。</blockquote> The Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund Exchange-Traded Fund (VDC), the&nbsp;Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(XLV), and the&nbsp;Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(XLU) are up between 3.1% and 5.4% since early November. The S&amp;P 500 is up0.6%.<blockquote>自11月初以来，先锋必需消费品指数基金交易所交易基金(VDC)、医疗保健精选行业SPDR基金(XLV)和公用事业精选行业SPDR基金(XLU)上涨了3.1%至5.4%。标普500上涨0.6%。</blockquote> Actually, defensive stocks are doing what they’re supposed to do—hold the line against economic risks, much like how in football the defense is supposed to keep the offense from scoring.<blockquote>事实上，防御性股票正在做它们应该做的事情——抵御经济风险，就像足球中防守应该阻止进攻得分一样。</blockquote> The funds have not only held the line but have thrived at a time when the market is jittery about the economic risks posed by shifts from the Fed. The central bank is projected to lift interest rates three times next year to stave off inflation, a move that could choke off growth. Consequently, investors often buy more staples, healthcare, and utilities stocks because those companies don’t see a dent to demand when consumers have less money to spend.<blockquote>在市场对美联储转变带来的经济风险感到紧张之际，这些基金不仅坚守阵地，而且蓬勃发展。预计央行明年将加息三次以避免通胀，此举可能会抑制经济增长。因此，投资者通常会购买更多的必需品、医疗保健和公用事业股票，因为当消费者可花的钱减少时，这些公司的需求不会受到影响。</blockquote> But the party might be just getting started for defensive stocks.<blockquote>但防御性股票的派对可能才刚刚开始。</blockquote> One indicator is the bond market: the difference in yield between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds has shrunk, suggesting less economic demand for markets in the long term. The difference is now 0.81 percentage points.<blockquote>一个指标是债券市场：10年期和2年期国债之间的收益率差已经缩小，表明长期经济对市场的需求减少。现在相差0.81个百分点。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley data show that when the difference falls to roughly where it is now defensive stocks outperform economically sensitive, or “cyclical,” stocks by a much wider margin. If the difference in long and short bond yields remains so low, “defensives will continue to lead and outperform cyclicals,” wrote Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist.<blockquote>摩根士丹利的数据显示，当利差大致降至目前水平时，防御性股票的表现优于经济敏感型或“周期性”股票的幅度要大得多。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson写道，如果多头和空头债券收益率之差仍然如此之低，“防御性股票将继续领先并跑赢周期性股票”。</blockquote> Wilson’s take makes sense considering the valuations of some defensive sectors. For instance, the aggregate forward price/earnings multiple for the consumer staples fund is 20.1 times vs. the S&amp;P 500’s 21.1 times, according to FactSet.<blockquote>考虑到一些防御性行业的估值，威尔逊的观点是有道理的。例如，根据FactSet的数据，必需消费品基金的总远期市盈率为20.1倍，而标普500为21.1倍。</blockquote> But in the several years leading into the pandemic, when economic growth was largely slowing down, the consumer staples fund traded at a slightly higher multiple than the S&amp;P 500’s. Assuming consumer staples’ valuations are reasonable, their earnings growth—analysts project the staples fund to average about 6% earnings growth for the next two years—could bring their stocks higher.<blockquote>但在疫情爆发前的几年里，当经济增长大幅放缓时，必需消费品基金的市盈率略高于标普500。假设必需消费品的估值合理，其盈利增长（分析师预计staples基金未来两年平均盈利增长约6%）可能会推高其股价。</blockquote> So, the outlook for defensive stocks looks promising. But as with almost everything, there’s a warning. The economy is still expected to grow faster&nbsp;than before the pandemic, which bodes well for cyclical stocks. S&amp;P 500 industrials, for example, are expected to boom, especially if Fed rate hikes don’t put the kibosh on demand.<blockquote>因此，防御性股票的前景看起来很有希望。但就像几乎所有事情一样，有一个警告。预计经济增长仍将快于疫情爆发前，这对周期性股票来说是个好兆头。例如，标普500工业预计将蓬勃发展，特别是如果美联储加息不抑制需求的话。</blockquote> Interest rate hikes. bond yields, cyclical stocks, defensive stocks. It’s a lot to sort through. The upshot is that investors who don’t like a lot of risk might just find a little peace of mind in these uncertain times by buying—or buying more— defensive stocks.<blockquote>加息。债券收益率、周期性股票、防御性股票。有很多东西要整理。结果是，不喜欢承担太多风险的投资者可能会在这个不确定的时期通过购买或购买更多防御性股票来找到一点内心的平静。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Defensive Stocks Are the Best Offense Against a Wobbly Economy Right Now<blockquote>防御性股票是目前对抗不稳定经济的最佳进攻</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDefensive Stocks Are the Best Offense Against a Wobbly Economy Right Now<blockquote>防御性股票是目前对抗不稳定经济的最佳进攻</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-28 19:39\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nDefensive stocks are going great guns right now. And they should keep running for a while if indicators are right.<blockquote>防御性股票现在表现出色。如果指标正确，它们应该会继续运行一段时间。</blockquote> Look at what they’ve done against the S&amp;P 500, for example.<blockquote>例如，看看他们对标普500做了什么。</blockquote> The Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund Exchange-Traded Fund (VDC), the&nbsp;Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(XLV), and the&nbsp;Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(XLU) are up between 3.1% and 5.4% since early November. The S&amp;P 500 is up0.6%.<blockquote>自11月初以来，先锋必需消费品指数基金交易所交易基金(VDC)、医疗保健精选行业SPDR基金(XLV)和公用事业精选行业SPDR基金(XLU)上涨了3.1%至5.4%。标普500上涨0.6%。</blockquote> Actually, defensive stocks are doing what they’re supposed to do—hold the line against economic risks, much like how in football the defense is supposed to keep the offense from scoring.<blockquote>事实上，防御性股票正在做它们应该做的事情——抵御经济风险，就像足球中防守应该阻止进攻得分一样。</blockquote> The funds have not only held the line but have thrived at a time when the market is jittery about the economic risks posed by shifts from the Fed. The central bank is projected to lift interest rates three times next year to stave off inflation, a move that could choke off growth. Consequently, investors often buy more staples, healthcare, and utilities stocks because those companies don’t see a dent to demand when consumers have less money to spend.<blockquote>在市场对美联储转变带来的经济风险感到紧张之际，这些基金不仅坚守阵地，而且蓬勃发展。预计央行明年将加息三次以避免通胀，此举可能会抑制经济增长。因此，投资者通常会购买更多的必需品、医疗保健和公用事业股票，因为当消费者可花的钱减少时，这些公司的需求不会受到影响。</blockquote> But the party might be just getting started for defensive stocks.<blockquote>但防御性股票的派对可能才刚刚开始。</blockquote> One indicator is the bond market: the difference in yield between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds has shrunk, suggesting less economic demand for markets in the long term. The difference is now 0.81 percentage points.<blockquote>一个指标是债券市场：10年期和2年期国债之间的收益率差已经缩小，表明长期经济对市场的需求减少。现在相差0.81个百分点。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley data show that when the difference falls to roughly where it is now defensive stocks outperform economically sensitive, or “cyclical,” stocks by a much wider margin. If the difference in long and short bond yields remains so low, “defensives will continue to lead and outperform cyclicals,” wrote Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist.<blockquote>摩根士丹利的数据显示，当利差大致降至目前水平时，防御性股票的表现优于经济敏感型或“周期性”股票的幅度要大得多。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson写道，如果多头和空头债券收益率之差仍然如此之低，“防御性股票将继续领先并跑赢周期性股票”。</blockquote> Wilson’s take makes sense considering the valuations of some defensive sectors. For instance, the aggregate forward price/earnings multiple for the consumer staples fund is 20.1 times vs. the S&amp;P 500’s 21.1 times, according to FactSet.<blockquote>考虑到一些防御性行业的估值，威尔逊的观点是有道理的。例如，根据FactSet的数据，必需消费品基金的总远期市盈率为20.1倍，而标普500为21.1倍。</blockquote> But in the several years leading into the pandemic, when economic growth was largely slowing down, the consumer staples fund traded at a slightly higher multiple than the S&amp;P 500’s. Assuming consumer staples’ valuations are reasonable, their earnings growth—analysts project the staples fund to average about 6% earnings growth for the next two years—could bring their stocks higher.<blockquote>但在疫情爆发前的几年里，当经济增长大幅放缓时，必需消费品基金的市盈率略高于标普500。假设必需消费品的估值合理，其盈利增长（分析师预计staples基金未来两年平均盈利增长约6%）可能会推高其股价。</blockquote> So, the outlook for defensive stocks looks promising. But as with almost everything, there’s a warning. The economy is still expected to grow faster&nbsp;than before the pandemic, which bodes well for cyclical stocks. S&amp;P 500 industrials, for example, are expected to boom, especially if Fed rate hikes don’t put the kibosh on demand.<blockquote>因此，防御性股票的前景看起来很有希望。但就像几乎所有事情一样，有一个警告。预计经济增长仍将快于疫情爆发前，这对周期性股票来说是个好兆头。例如，标普500工业预计将蓬勃发展，特别是如果美联储加息不抑制需求的话。</blockquote> Interest rate hikes. bond yields, cyclical stocks, defensive stocks. It’s a lot to sort through. The upshot is that investors who don’t like a lot of risk might just find a little peace of mind in these uncertain times by buying—or buying more— defensive stocks.<blockquote>加息。债券收益率、周期性股票、防御性股票。有很多东西要整理。结果是，不喜欢承担太多风险的投资者可能会在这个不确定的时期通过购买或购买更多防御性股票来找到一点内心的平静。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/defensive-stocks-economy-51640637610?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VDC":"日常消费品ETF-Vanguard",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","XLV":"健康照护类股ETF-SPDR",".DJI":"道琼斯","XLU":"公共事业指数ETF-SPDR",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/defensive-stocks-economy-51640637610?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162624999","content_text":"Defensive stocks are going great guns right now. And they should keep running for a while if indicators are right.\nLook at what they’ve done against the S&P 500, for example.\nThe Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund Exchange-Traded Fund (VDC), the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV), and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) are up between 3.1% and 5.4% since early November. The S&P 500 is up0.6%.\nActually, defensive stocks are doing what they’re supposed to do—hold the line against economic risks, much like how in football the defense is supposed to keep the offense from scoring.\nThe funds have not only held the line but have thrived at a time when the market is jittery about the economic risks posed by shifts from the Fed. The central bank is projected to lift interest rates three times next year to stave off inflation, a move that could choke off growth. Consequently, investors often buy more staples, healthcare, and utilities stocks because those companies don’t see a dent to demand when consumers have less money to spend.\nBut the party might be just getting started for defensive stocks.\nOne indicator is the bond market: the difference in yield between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds has shrunk, suggesting less economic demand for markets in the long term. The difference is now 0.81 percentage points.\nMorgan Stanley data show that when the difference falls to roughly where it is now defensive stocks outperform economically sensitive, or “cyclical,” stocks by a much wider margin. If the difference in long and short bond yields remains so low, “defensives will continue to lead and outperform cyclicals,” wrote Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist.\nWilson’s take makes sense considering the valuations of some defensive sectors. For instance, the aggregate forward price/earnings multiple for the consumer staples fund is 20.1 times vs. the S&P 500’s 21.1 times, according to FactSet.\nBut in the several years leading into the pandemic, when economic growth was largely slowing down, the consumer staples fund traded at a slightly higher multiple than the S&P 500’s. Assuming consumer staples’ valuations are reasonable, their earnings growth—analysts project the staples fund to average about 6% earnings growth for the next two years—could bring their stocks higher.\nSo, the outlook for defensive stocks looks promising. But as with almost everything, there’s a warning. The economy is still expected to grow faster than before the pandemic, which bodes well for cyclical stocks. S&P 500 industrials, for example, are expected to boom, especially if Fed rate hikes don’t put the kibosh on demand.\nInterest rate hikes. bond yields, cyclical stocks, defensive stocks. It’s a lot to sort through. The upshot is that investors who don’t like a lot of risk might just find a little peace of mind in these uncertain times by buying—or buying more— defensive stocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0,".DJI":0,"XLV":0,"VDC":0,"XLU":0,".IXIC":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Defensive Stocks Are the Best Offense Against a Wobbly Economy Right Now<blockquote>防御性股票是目前对抗不稳定经济的最佳进攻</blockquote>

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热议股票