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2021-08-02

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Commodities Week Ahead: Oil, Gold Eye U.S. Jobs Report As China PMI Slides<blockquote>未来一周大宗商品：随着中国PMI下滑，石油、黄金关注美国就业报告</blockquote>

It’s that time again. The release of the monthly US jobs report. And the direction of gold, oil and

Commodities Week Ahead: Oil, Gold Eye U.S. Jobs Report As China PMI Slides<blockquote>未来一周大宗商品：随着中国PMI下滑，石油、黄金关注美国就业报告</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":805580995,"tweetId":"805580995","gmtCreate":1627891862817,"gmtModify":1631889860095,"author":{"id":3577522329316309,"idStr":"3577522329316309","authorId":3577522329316309,"authorIdStr":"3577522329316309","name":"pompeepee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>wowew</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>wowew</body></html>","text":"wowew","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805580995","repostId":1188442648,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188442648","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627890543,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188442648?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 15:49","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Commodities Week Ahead: Oil, Gold Eye U.S. Jobs Report As China PMI Slides<blockquote>未来一周大宗商品：随着中国PMI下滑，石油、黄金关注美国就业报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188442648","media":"investing.com","summary":"It’s that time again. The release of the monthly US jobs report. And the direction of gold, oil and ","content":"It’s that time again. The release of the monthly&nbsp;US jobs report. And the direction of&nbsp;gold,&nbsp;oil&nbsp;and a few other key commodities could well depend on how healthy the labor market in the world’s leading economy is.<blockquote>又到那个时候了。美国月度就业报告的发布。黄金、石油和其他一些关键大宗商品的走势很可能取决于世界领先经济体劳动力市场的健康程度。</blockquote> It can be argued that every US jobs report holds markets hostage 'til its release.<blockquote>可以说，每一份美国就业报告在发布之前都会挟持市场。</blockquote> But this report for July might be unusually important for three reasons: One, it will show how well America is hiring amid suspicion that government aid for the unemployed is keeping many from getting jobs; two, it will be a referendum on the US economy amid the resurgence of COVID cases from the Delta variant of the virus; and three, it will also demonstrate if the United States will assure the world of growth just as China’s economy was slacking.<blockquote>但这份7月份的报告可能异常重要，原因有三：第一，它将显示美国的招聘情况如何，因为人们怀疑政府对失业者的援助阻碍了许多人找到工作；第二，在病毒德尔塔变异毒株新冠病例死灰复燃之际，这将是对美国经济的一次公投；第三，它还将证明美国是否会在中国经济放缓的时候保证世界的增长。</blockquote> China's&nbsp;factory data, released on Monday, showed activity expanded in July at the slowest pace in 17 months as higher raw material costs, equipment maintenance and extreme weather weighed on business activity.&nbsp; The data added to concerns about a slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy.<blockquote>周一公布的中国工厂数据显示，由于原材料成本上涨、设备维护和极端天气给商业活动带来压力，7月份工厂活动扩张速度为17个月来最慢。该数据加剧了人们对全球第二大经济体放缓的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e4e598a6558955419506b0cfefc5975\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"744\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Oil Weekly TTM<blockquote>石油周刊TTM</blockquote> Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA, said oil prices, particularly, were sensitive to talk of any China slowdown, adding:<blockquote>OANDA高级分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)表示，油价对有关中国经济放缓的言论尤其敏感，并补充道：</blockquote> \"China's been leading economic recovery in Asia and if the pullback deepens, concerns will grow that the global outlook will see a significant decline.\"The crude demand outlook is on shaky ground and that probably will not improve until global vaccinations improve.\" New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude and London’s&nbsp;Brentwere both down about 1% each in Monday’s afternoon trade in Asia, after posting modest gains for July, making it oil’s positive run to a fourth straight month.<blockquote>“中国一直引领亚洲经济复苏，如果回调加深，人们将越来越担心全球前景将大幅下滑。原油需求前景岌岌可危，在全球疫苗接种情况改善之前，这种情况可能不会改善。”纽约交易的西德克萨斯中质原油和伦敦布伦特原油在7月份小幅上涨后，在周一下午的亚洲交易中均下跌约1%，使其连续第四个月上涨。</blockquote> Also weighing on oil was a Reuters survey that found production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries hitting 16 month highs last month as the group further eased production curbs under a pact with its allies and top exporter Saudi Arabia.<blockquote>路透社的一项调查也给油价带来压力，该调查发现，石油输出国组织上个月的产量触及16个月高点，因为该组织根据与其盟友和最大出口国沙特阿拉伯的协议进一步放松了产量限制。</blockquote> While coronavirus cases continue to climb globally, analysts said higher vaccination rates would limit the need for the harsh lockdowns that gutted demand during the peak of the pandemic last year. The United States will not lock down again to curb COVID-19 but \"things are going to get worse\" as the Delta variant fuels a surge in cases, mostly among the unvaccinated, top US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci said Sunday.<blockquote>尽管冠状病毒病例在全球范围内继续攀升，但分析师表示，更高的疫苗接种率将限制去年疫情高峰期间导致需求枯竭的严厉封锁的必要性。美国顶级传染病专家Anthony Fauci周日表示，美国不会再次封锁以遏制新冠肺炎，但随着德尔塔变异毒株加剧病例激增，“情况将会变得更糟”，其中大部分是未接种疫苗的病例。</blockquote> Hence, the importance of the July nonfarm payrolls report due Friday.<blockquote>因此，周五公布的7月非农就业报告非常重要。</blockquote> Economists are expecting the economy to have added 900,000 jobs in July after a forecast-beating 850,000 in June.<blockquote>经济学家预计7月份经济将增加90万个就业岗位，高于6月份的85万个。</blockquote> Last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the job market still had \"some ground to cover\" before it would be time to start scaling back stimulus measures the central bank enacted in the spring of 2020 to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.<blockquote>上周，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，在开始缩减美联储于2020年春季为应对冠状病毒大流行的经济影响而制定的刺激措施之前，就业市场仍有“一些进展”。</blockquote> In June Fed officials began debating how to wind down bond purchases, but there is no clear timetable yet for when it will begin pulling back emergency market support measures.<blockquote>今年6月，美联储官员们开始辩论如何缩减债券购买，但是何时开始撤回紧急市场支持措施目前尚无明确时间表。</blockquote> Treacherous Waters For Gold If Jobs Numbers Surprise<blockquote>如果就业数据出人意料，黄金将面临危险水域</blockquote> Oil aside, gold and&nbsp;copper&nbsp;will also likely be heavily influenced by the July payrolls report.<blockquote>除了石油，黄金和铜也可能受到7月份就业报告的严重影响。</blockquote> After two weeks of anemic action, gold longs got a break last week when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank wasn’t ready to raise US interest rates as it was still focused on buying assets to support an economy recovering from the coronavirus pandemic.<blockquote>经过两周的乏力行动后，黄金多头上周得到了喘息，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储尚未准备好提高美国利率，因为它仍专注于购买资产以支持从冠状病毒大流行中复苏的经济。</blockquote> Powell also refused to discuss when the Fed might consider tapering the combined $120 billion it was plonking down each month into Treasury bonds and agency mortgage‑backed securities. His mantra: It wasn’t time for that.<blockquote>鲍威尔还拒绝讨论美联储何时可能考虑缩减每月向国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券投入的总计1200亿美元。他的口头禅是：现在不是时候。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef5b83aa16320d74287cd6de18a59bd\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"746\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Gold Weekly TTM<blockquote>黄金周TTM</blockquote> Front-month gold on New York’s Comex was down 0.2% in Monday’s afternoon trade in Asia, hovering at under $1,815 an ounce.<blockquote>周一亚洲午盘，纽约商品交易所近月黄金下跌0.2%，徘徊在每盎司1,815美元以下。</blockquote> If gold clears $1,850, it might be able to make a run toward $1,900, analysts say.<blockquote>分析师表示，如果金价突破1,850美元，可能会升至1,900美元。</blockquote> The risk, however, is US jobs showing a bigger-than-expected gain for July in the Labor Department’s monthly nonfarm payroll report due at the end of this week. If that overshoots forecasts, it could complicate the Fed’s aim of keeping the stimulus on for the foreseeable future and rates lower for longer. Gold might be caught in treacherous waters again if the job numbers surprise.<blockquote>然而，风险在于，美国劳工部将于本周末发布的月度非农就业报告显示，美国7月份就业增长超出预期。如果超出预期，可能会使美联储在可预见的未来保持刺激措施并在更长时间内降低利率的目标变得复杂。如果就业数据出人意料，黄金可能会再次陷入危险的境地。</blockquote> Aside from the jobs report, the economic calendar also features other important data including the Institute for Supply Management’s&nbsp;manufacturing&nbsp;data Monday and&nbsp;service sector&nbsp;data on Wednesday. The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to remain robust, but to again underline supply side strains in the economy that are contributing to higherinflation.<blockquote>除了就业报告，经济日历还包括其他重要数据，包括供应管理协会周一的制造业数据和周三的服务业数据。ISM制造业PMI预计将保持强劲，但将再次凸显经济中导致通胀上升的供给侧压力。</blockquote> Data on&nbsp;factory orders&nbsp;is slated for Tuesday and the weekly report oninitial jobless claimsis on Thursday. Jobless claims have fallen considerably since the start of the year amid growing labor demand, but the Delta variant that’s fueled a recent surge in new infections across the country poses a risk.<blockquote>工厂订单数据定于周二公布，首次申请失业救济人数周报将于周四公布。由于劳动力需求不断增长，自今年年初以来，初请失业金人数大幅下降，但近期全国新增感染病例激增的德尔塔变异毒株带来了风险。</blockquote> Several Fed officials are also scheduled to speak during the week, including Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Fed Vice Chair&nbsp;Richard Clarida&nbsp;and Fed Governor&nbsp;Christopher Waller.<blockquote>几位美联储官员也计划在本周发表讲话，包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、美联储副主席理查德·克拉里达和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1594375853987","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Commodities Week Ahead: Oil, Gold Eye U.S. Jobs Report As China PMI Slides<blockquote>未来一周大宗商品：随着中国PMI下滑，石油、黄金关注美国就业报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCommodities Week Ahead: Oil, Gold Eye U.S. Jobs Report As China PMI Slides<blockquote>未来一周大宗商品：随着中国PMI下滑，石油、黄金关注美国就业报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\ninvesting.com2021-08-02 15:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt’s that time again. The release of the monthly&nbsp;US jobs report. And the direction of&nbsp;gold,&nbsp;oil&nbsp;and a few other key commodities could well depend on how healthy the labor market in the world’s leading economy is.<blockquote>又到那个时候了。美国月度就业报告的发布。黄金、石油和其他一些关键大宗商品的走势很可能取决于世界领先经济体劳动力市场的健康程度。</blockquote> It can be argued that every US jobs report holds markets hostage 'til its release.<blockquote>可以说，每一份美国就业报告在发布之前都会挟持市场。</blockquote> But this report for July might be unusually important for three reasons: One, it will show how well America is hiring amid suspicion that government aid for the unemployed is keeping many from getting jobs; two, it will be a referendum on the US economy amid the resurgence of COVID cases from the Delta variant of the virus; and three, it will also demonstrate if the United States will assure the world of growth just as China’s economy was slacking.<blockquote>但这份7月份的报告可能异常重要，原因有三：第一，它将显示美国的招聘情况如何，因为人们怀疑政府对失业者的援助阻碍了许多人找到工作；第二，在病毒德尔塔变异毒株新冠病例死灰复燃之际，这将是对美国经济的一次公投；第三，它还将证明美国是否会在中国经济放缓的时候保证世界的增长。</blockquote> China's&nbsp;factory data, released on Monday, showed activity expanded in July at the slowest pace in 17 months as higher raw material costs, equipment maintenance and extreme weather weighed on business activity.&nbsp; The data added to concerns about a slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy.<blockquote>周一公布的中国工厂数据显示，由于原材料成本上涨、设备维护和极端天气给商业活动带来压力，7月份工厂活动扩张速度为17个月来最慢。该数据加剧了人们对全球第二大经济体放缓的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e4e598a6558955419506b0cfefc5975\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"744\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Oil Weekly TTM<blockquote>石油周刊TTM</blockquote> Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA, said oil prices, particularly, were sensitive to talk of any China slowdown, adding:<blockquote>OANDA高级分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)表示，油价对有关中国经济放缓的言论尤其敏感，并补充道：</blockquote> \"China's been leading economic recovery in Asia and if the pullback deepens, concerns will grow that the global outlook will see a significant decline.\"The crude demand outlook is on shaky ground and that probably will not improve until global vaccinations improve.\" New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude and London’s&nbsp;Brentwere both down about 1% each in Monday’s afternoon trade in Asia, after posting modest gains for July, making it oil’s positive run to a fourth straight month.<blockquote>“中国一直引领亚洲经济复苏，如果回调加深，人们将越来越担心全球前景将大幅下滑。原油需求前景岌岌可危，在全球疫苗接种情况改善之前，这种情况可能不会改善。”纽约交易的西德克萨斯中质原油和伦敦布伦特原油在7月份小幅上涨后，在周一下午的亚洲交易中均下跌约1%，使其连续第四个月上涨。</blockquote> Also weighing on oil was a Reuters survey that found production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries hitting 16 month highs last month as the group further eased production curbs under a pact with its allies and top exporter Saudi Arabia.<blockquote>路透社的一项调查也给油价带来压力，该调查发现，石油输出国组织上个月的产量触及16个月高点，因为该组织根据与其盟友和最大出口国沙特阿拉伯的协议进一步放松了产量限制。</blockquote> While coronavirus cases continue to climb globally, analysts said higher vaccination rates would limit the need for the harsh lockdowns that gutted demand during the peak of the pandemic last year. The United States will not lock down again to curb COVID-19 but \"things are going to get worse\" as the Delta variant fuels a surge in cases, mostly among the unvaccinated, top US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci said Sunday.<blockquote>尽管冠状病毒病例在全球范围内继续攀升，但分析师表示，更高的疫苗接种率将限制去年疫情高峰期间导致需求枯竭的严厉封锁的必要性。美国顶级传染病专家Anthony Fauci周日表示，美国不会再次封锁以遏制新冠肺炎，但随着德尔塔变异毒株加剧病例激增，“情况将会变得更糟”，其中大部分是未接种疫苗的病例。</blockquote> Hence, the importance of the July nonfarm payrolls report due Friday.<blockquote>因此，周五公布的7月非农就业报告非常重要。</blockquote> Economists are expecting the economy to have added 900,000 jobs in July after a forecast-beating 850,000 in June.<blockquote>经济学家预计7月份经济将增加90万个就业岗位，高于6月份的85万个。</blockquote> Last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the job market still had \"some ground to cover\" before it would be time to start scaling back stimulus measures the central bank enacted in the spring of 2020 to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.<blockquote>上周，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，在开始缩减美联储于2020年春季为应对冠状病毒大流行的经济影响而制定的刺激措施之前，就业市场仍有“一些进展”。</blockquote> In June Fed officials began debating how to wind down bond purchases, but there is no clear timetable yet for when it will begin pulling back emergency market support measures.<blockquote>今年6月，美联储官员们开始辩论如何缩减债券购买，但是何时开始撤回紧急市场支持措施目前尚无明确时间表。</blockquote> Treacherous Waters For Gold If Jobs Numbers Surprise<blockquote>如果就业数据出人意料，黄金将面临危险水域</blockquote> Oil aside, gold and&nbsp;copper&nbsp;will also likely be heavily influenced by the July payrolls report.<blockquote>除了石油，黄金和铜也可能受到7月份就业报告的严重影响。</blockquote> After two weeks of anemic action, gold longs got a break last week when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank wasn’t ready to raise US interest rates as it was still focused on buying assets to support an economy recovering from the coronavirus pandemic.<blockquote>经过两周的乏力行动后，黄金多头上周得到了喘息，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储尚未准备好提高美国利率，因为它仍专注于购买资产以支持从冠状病毒大流行中复苏的经济。</blockquote> Powell also refused to discuss when the Fed might consider tapering the combined $120 billion it was plonking down each month into Treasury bonds and agency mortgage‑backed securities. His mantra: It wasn’t time for that.<blockquote>鲍威尔还拒绝讨论美联储何时可能考虑缩减每月向国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券投入的总计1200亿美元。他的口头禅是：现在不是时候。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef5b83aa16320d74287cd6de18a59bd\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"746\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Gold Weekly TTM<blockquote>黄金周TTM</blockquote> Front-month gold on New York’s Comex was down 0.2% in Monday’s afternoon trade in Asia, hovering at under $1,815 an ounce.<blockquote>周一亚洲午盘，纽约商品交易所近月黄金下跌0.2%，徘徊在每盎司1,815美元以下。</blockquote> If gold clears $1,850, it might be able to make a run toward $1,900, analysts say.<blockquote>分析师表示，如果金价突破1,850美元，可能会升至1,900美元。</blockquote> The risk, however, is US jobs showing a bigger-than-expected gain for July in the Labor Department’s monthly nonfarm payroll report due at the end of this week. If that overshoots forecasts, it could complicate the Fed’s aim of keeping the stimulus on for the foreseeable future and rates lower for longer. Gold might be caught in treacherous waters again if the job numbers surprise.<blockquote>然而，风险在于，美国劳工部将于本周末发布的月度非农就业报告显示，美国7月份就业增长超出预期。如果超出预期，可能会使美联储在可预见的未来保持刺激措施并在更长时间内降低利率的目标变得复杂。如果就业数据出人意料，黄金可能会再次陷入危险的境地。</blockquote> Aside from the jobs report, the economic calendar also features other important data including the Institute for Supply Management’s&nbsp;manufacturing&nbsp;data Monday and&nbsp;service sector&nbsp;data on Wednesday. The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to remain robust, but to again underline supply side strains in the economy that are contributing to higherinflation.<blockquote>除了就业报告，经济日历还包括其他重要数据，包括供应管理协会周一的制造业数据和周三的服务业数据。ISM制造业PMI预计将保持强劲，但将再次凸显经济中导致通胀上升的供给侧压力。</blockquote> Data on&nbsp;factory orders&nbsp;is slated for Tuesday and the weekly report oninitial jobless claimsis on Thursday. Jobless claims have fallen considerably since the start of the year amid growing labor demand, but the Delta variant that’s fueled a recent surge in new infections across the country poses a risk.<blockquote>工厂订单数据定于周二公布，首次申请失业救济人数周报将于周四公布。由于劳动力需求不断增长，自今年年初以来，初请失业金人数大幅下降，但近期全国新增感染病例激增的德尔塔变异毒株带来了风险。</blockquote> Several Fed officials are also scheduled to speak during the week, including Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Fed Vice Chair&nbsp;Richard Clarida&nbsp;and Fed Governor&nbsp;Christopher Waller.<blockquote>几位美联储官员也计划在本周发表讲话，包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、美联储副主席理查德·克拉里达和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/commodities-week-ahead-oil-gold-eye-us-jobs-report-as-china-pmi-slides-200595381\">investing.com</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.investing.com/analysis/commodities-week-ahead-oil-gold-eye-us-jobs-report-as-china-pmi-slides-200595381","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188442648","content_text":"It’s that time again. The release of the monthly US jobs report. And the direction of gold, oil and a few other key commodities could well depend on how healthy the labor market in the world’s leading economy is.\nIt can be argued that every US jobs report holds markets hostage 'til its release.\nBut this report for July might be unusually important for three reasons: One, it will show how well America is hiring amid suspicion that government aid for the unemployed is keeping many from getting jobs; two, it will be a referendum on the US economy amid the resurgence of COVID cases from the Delta variant of the virus; and three, it will also demonstrate if the United States will assure the world of growth just as China’s economy was slacking.\nChina's factory data, released on Monday, showed activity expanded in July at the slowest pace in 17 months as higher raw material costs, equipment maintenance and extreme weather weighed on business activity.  The data added to concerns about a slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy.\nOil Weekly TTM\nEdward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA, said oil prices, particularly, were sensitive to talk of any China slowdown, adding:\n\n \"China's been leading economic recovery in Asia and if the pullback deepens, concerns will grow that the global outlook will see a significant decline.\"The crude demand outlook is on shaky ground and that probably will not improve until global vaccinations improve.\"\n\nNew York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude and London’s Brentwere both down about 1% each in Monday’s afternoon trade in Asia, after posting modest gains for July, making it oil’s positive run to a fourth straight month.\nAlso weighing on oil was a Reuters survey that found production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries hitting 16 month highs last month as the group further eased production curbs under a pact with its allies and top exporter Saudi Arabia.\nWhile coronavirus cases continue to climb globally, analysts said higher vaccination rates would limit the need for the harsh lockdowns that gutted demand during the peak of the pandemic last year. The United States will not lock down again to curb COVID-19 but \"things are going to get worse\" as the Delta variant fuels a surge in cases, mostly among the unvaccinated, top US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci said Sunday.\nHence, the importance of the July nonfarm payrolls report due Friday.\nEconomists are expecting the economy to have added 900,000 jobs in July after a forecast-beating 850,000 in June.\nLast week Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the job market still had \"some ground to cover\" before it would be time to start scaling back stimulus measures the central bank enacted in the spring of 2020 to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.\nIn June Fed officials began debating how to wind down bond purchases, but there is no clear timetable yet for when it will begin pulling back emergency market support measures.\nTreacherous Waters For Gold If Jobs Numbers Surprise\nOil aside, gold and copper will also likely be heavily influenced by the July payrolls report.\nAfter two weeks of anemic action, gold longs got a break last week when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank wasn’t ready to raise US interest rates as it was still focused on buying assets to support an economy recovering from the coronavirus pandemic.\nPowell also refused to discuss when the Fed might consider tapering the combined $120 billion it was plonking down each month into Treasury bonds and agency mortgage‑backed securities. His mantra: It wasn’t time for that.\nGold Weekly TTM\nFront-month gold on New York’s Comex was down 0.2% in Monday’s afternoon trade in Asia, hovering at under $1,815 an ounce.\nIf gold clears $1,850, it might be able to make a run toward $1,900, analysts say.\nThe risk, however, is US jobs showing a bigger-than-expected gain for July in the Labor Department’s monthly nonfarm payroll report due at the end of this week. If that overshoots forecasts, it could complicate the Fed’s aim of keeping the stimulus on for the foreseeable future and rates lower for longer. Gold might be caught in treacherous waters again if the job numbers surprise.\nAside from the jobs report, the economic calendar also features other important data including the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing data Monday and service sector data on Wednesday. The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to remain robust, but to again underline supply side strains in the economy that are contributing to higherinflation.\nData on factory orders is slated for Tuesday and the weekly report oninitial jobless claimsis on Thursday. Jobless claims have fallen considerably since the start of the year amid growing labor demand, but the Delta variant that’s fueled a recent surge in new infections across the country poses a risk.\nSeveral Fed officials are also scheduled to speak during the week, including Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida and Fed Governor Christopher Waller.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HGmain":0.9,"GOLDmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1296,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Commodities Week Ahead: Oil, Gold Eye U.S. Jobs Report As China PMI Slides<blockquote>未来一周大宗商品：随着中国PMI下滑，石油、黄金关注美国就业报告</blockquote>

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