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2021-07-31

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Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快行动。但暂时搁置该股</blockquote>

Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and recl

Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快行动。但暂时搁置该股</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":806475980,"tweetId":"806475980","gmtCreate":1627691730640,"gmtModify":1633757130994,"author":{"id":4088653602275180,"idStr":"4088653602275180","authorId":4088653602275180,"authorIdStr":"4088653602275180","name":"Yayapapayap","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71e9e8ef4e83709c8d26870dd507c6f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Yes</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Yes</body></html>","text":"Yes","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806475980","repostId":1115580649,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115580649","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627687297,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115580649?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 07:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快行动。但暂时搁置该股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115580649","media":"Barron's","summary":"Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and recl","content":"Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官表示，英特尔将获得世界上最令人垂涎的下一代芯片制造机器的优先权，并在2025年之前重新夺回其技术领先地位。他认为该公司的价值可能会“增加三倍、四倍”。我有五倍的兴趣，四分之一的确信。</blockquote> This past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”<blockquote>上周，自2月份以来担任英特尔（股票代码：INTC）负责人的帕特·基辛格（Pat Gelsinger）接受了挑战，向一个认为医生有时会挤压这些东西的人解释了他的“节点”四年计划。事实证明，他们也是芯片制造一代，基辛格计划与他们中的许多人赛跑。“英特尔太傲慢了，”他告诉我。“我们正在迅速解决这个问题。”</blockquote> This year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.<blockquote>投资银行Raymond James预测，今年英特尔将销售85%的用于所谓客户端计算的芯片，包括笔记本电脑等。这将在两年内下降七个百分点，而其竞争对手Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)也以同样快的速度上升。</blockquote> The trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.<blockquote>服务器的趋势类似。评论网站Tom's Hardware和AnandTech表示，英特尔最新的服务器芯片是一个很大的改进，但AMD在性能上仍然领先。大型组织和数据中心的买家厌恶风险，看重支持和长期经验，而不仅仅是性价比，但这不会永远减缓英特尔的份额损失。与此同时，其在个人电脑领域的下滑已被Covid-19家庭办公室购买量的激增所抵消，但这种情况可能会改变。</blockquote> How did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.<blockquote>英特尔是如何落后的？它做出了要么全有要么全无的技术赌注，导致了死胡同，而竞争对手则频繁地进行渐进式改进。它通过了一种称为极紫外光刻（EUV）的新制造技术，与传统光刻相比，这种技术将更多的电路塞入硅中。</blockquote> And it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.<blockquote>而且它对权力向台积电（TSM）等代工厂转移的反应可能很慢。台积电不仅仅是订单接受者。其营业利润率是AMD的两倍。因此，英特尔一直在设计和制造上进行双线作战。</blockquote> There have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.<blockquote>还有其他更长的轮班。计算能力已经迁移到云端，所以我们用个人机器凑合的时间更长了。像人工智能这样的高级应用程序倾向于高度并行处理，这与视频游戏没有什么不同；英伟达(NVDA)将其长期成功与数据中心的财富进行了激烈的竞争。</blockquote> The stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&amp;P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.<blockquote>股市的判断是鲜明的。十年前，英特尔的市值为1180亿美元，比台积电、英伟达和AMD的总和还要高出400亿美元。现在，英特尔的市值接近2200亿美元，但其他公司的市值加起来为1.1万亿美元。在股票回购和股息之后，英特尔投资者在此期间的收益超过220%。但他们在标准普尔500指数上的表现本可以高出近100点，在PHLX半导体指数上的表现可以高出700点。</blockquote> A positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.<blockquote>一个积极的迹象是，近年来离开英特尔的顶级工程师正在回归。“他们感觉到魔力又回来了，”基辛格说。但这需要的不仅仅是魔力。</blockquote> The CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.<blockquote>这位首席执行官表示，他目前将部分依赖外部代工厂，同时建立一个为其他芯片制造商服务的代工厂业务。亚利桑那州正在建设两座新工厂，耗资200亿美元（不包括设备）。据报道，该公司还就以300亿美元收购GlobalFoundries进行了谈判。</blockquote> Speaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”<blockquote>基辛格表示，总的来说，“随着时间的推移，将会出现整合，我们将成为整合者。”</blockquote> Now, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.<blockquote>现在，关于这些节点：英特尔一直在使用不断缩小的长度来命名它们，比如“10纳米”。这些数字用于指代特定的晶体管部件，但在现代架构中，芯片制造商一直在随意地进行测量。因此，从这里开始，它只是数字：今年晚些时候英特尔7，然后是4，然后是3。然后我们到了英特尔20A和18A，唤起了“埃时代”。一埃是十分之一纳米，那么这些名字会基于测量吗？不：它们只是为了营销。为了清晰起见，我给新的命名方案打了4分，从橙色到圆周率。</blockquote> The new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.<blockquote>然而，新的nodemap不仅仅是一个重命名。提议的芯片改进将是快速而稳定的。英特尔将从明年的批次开始采用EUV。2024年，它将进行十多年来的首次重大架构变革，并表示将在性能上赶上竞争对手。第二年，它将通过竞争转向EUV的继任者，称为high-NA EUV。NA代表数值孔径，但它可以代表牛轧糖和杏仁，只要性能提升如承诺的那样大。</blockquote> Bulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.Barron’shas been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.<blockquote>多头和空头都认为该计划是激进的。看空者表示，这将花费太多，结果在几年内都不会知道，而且从现在到那时，英特尔将继续失去市场份额。看多者表示，英特尔将稳定其份额，风险反映在其股价是今年预计收益的11倍，约为大盘价格的一半。巴伦周刊一直看好英特尔的重塑努力。犹豫不决的投资者可能想等到11月份，届时英特尔将召开分析师会议，并可能为其计划定价。</blockquote> Plenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.<blockquote>大量资金将花在设备上。EUV机器由ASML控股公司(ASML)制造，该公司现在拥有巨大的权力。看好英特尔的Needham分析师奎因·博尔顿(Quinn Bolton)表示：“就ASML想要决定代工领域的市场份额而言，它将这些制造席位分配给谁将具有相当大的影响力。”</blockquote> Gelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”<blockquote>基辛格表示，他现在已经拥有了所需的EUV机器。谈到high-NA以及他与ASML的合同关系，他表示，“我们将成为这些工具的第一批生产用户。”</blockquote> ASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.<blockquote>正如您可能想象的那样，ASML股票的定价是今年盈利预测的48倍，距离天堂还差一埃。EUV机器的买家也需要其他公司的设备。博尔顿最喜欢的股票投资者是应用材料公司（AMAT）。多年来，它的价格已经上涨了五倍，但市盈率仍为20倍左右。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快行动。但暂时搁置该股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快行动。但暂时搁置该股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-07-31 07:21\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIntelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官表示，英特尔将获得世界上最令人垂涎的下一代芯片制造机器的优先权，并在2025年之前重新夺回其技术领先地位。他认为该公司的价值可能会“增加三倍、四倍”。我有五倍的兴趣，四分之一的确信。</blockquote> This past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”<blockquote>上周，自2月份以来担任英特尔（股票代码：INTC）负责人的帕特·基辛格（Pat Gelsinger）接受了挑战，向一个认为医生有时会挤压这些东西的人解释了他的“节点”四年计划。事实证明，他们也是芯片制造一代，基辛格计划与他们中的许多人赛跑。“英特尔太傲慢了，”他告诉我。“我们正在迅速解决这个问题。”</blockquote> This year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.<blockquote>投资银行Raymond James预测，今年英特尔将销售85%的用于所谓客户端计算的芯片，包括笔记本电脑等。这将在两年内下降七个百分点，而其竞争对手Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)也以同样快的速度上升。</blockquote> The trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.<blockquote>服务器的趋势类似。评论网站Tom's Hardware和AnandTech表示，英特尔最新的服务器芯片是一个很大的改进，但AMD在性能上仍然领先。大型组织和数据中心的买家厌恶风险，看重支持和长期经验，而不仅仅是性价比，但这不会永远减缓英特尔的份额损失。与此同时，其在个人电脑领域的下滑已被Covid-19家庭办公室购买量的激增所抵消，但这种情况可能会改变。</blockquote> How did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.<blockquote>英特尔是如何落后的？它做出了要么全有要么全无的技术赌注，导致了死胡同，而竞争对手则频繁地进行渐进式改进。它通过了一种称为极紫外光刻（EUV）的新制造技术，与传统光刻相比，这种技术将更多的电路塞入硅中。</blockquote> And it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.<blockquote>而且它对权力向台积电（TSM）等代工厂转移的反应可能很慢。台积电不仅仅是订单接受者。其营业利润率是AMD的两倍。因此，英特尔一直在设计和制造上进行双线作战。</blockquote> There have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.<blockquote>还有其他更长的轮班。计算能力已经迁移到云端，所以我们用个人机器凑合的时间更长了。像人工智能这样的高级应用程序倾向于高度并行处理，这与视频游戏没有什么不同；英伟达(NVDA)将其长期成功与数据中心的财富进行了激烈的竞争。</blockquote> The stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&amp;P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.<blockquote>股市的判断是鲜明的。十年前，英特尔的市值为1180亿美元，比台积电、英伟达和AMD的总和还要高出400亿美元。现在，英特尔的市值接近2200亿美元，但其他公司的市值加起来为1.1万亿美元。在股票回购和股息之后，英特尔投资者在此期间的收益超过220%。但他们在标准普尔500指数上的表现本可以高出近100点，在PHLX半导体指数上的表现可以高出700点。</blockquote> A positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.<blockquote>一个积极的迹象是，近年来离开英特尔的顶级工程师正在回归。“他们感觉到魔力又回来了，”基辛格说。但这需要的不仅仅是魔力。</blockquote> The CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.<blockquote>这位首席执行官表示，他目前将部分依赖外部代工厂，同时建立一个为其他芯片制造商服务的代工厂业务。亚利桑那州正在建设两座新工厂，耗资200亿美元（不包括设备）。据报道，该公司还就以300亿美元收购GlobalFoundries进行了谈判。</blockquote> Speaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”<blockquote>基辛格表示，总的来说，“随着时间的推移，将会出现整合，我们将成为整合者。”</blockquote> Now, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.<blockquote>现在，关于这些节点：英特尔一直在使用不断缩小的长度来命名它们，比如“10纳米”。这些数字用于指代特定的晶体管部件，但在现代架构中，芯片制造商一直在随意地进行测量。因此，从这里开始，它只是数字：今年晚些时候英特尔7，然后是4，然后是3。然后我们到了英特尔20A和18A，唤起了“埃时代”。一埃是十分之一纳米，那么这些名字会基于测量吗？不：它们只是为了营销。为了清晰起见，我给新的命名方案打了4分，从橙色到圆周率。</blockquote> The new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.<blockquote>然而，新的nodemap不仅仅是一个重命名。提议的芯片改进将是快速而稳定的。英特尔将从明年的批次开始采用EUV。2024年，它将进行十多年来的首次重大架构变革，并表示将在性能上赶上竞争对手。第二年，它将通过竞争转向EUV的继任者，称为high-NA EUV。NA代表数值孔径，但它可以代表牛轧糖和杏仁，只要性能提升如承诺的那样大。</blockquote> Bulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.Barron’shas been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.<blockquote>多头和空头都认为该计划是激进的。看空者表示，这将花费太多，结果在几年内都不会知道，而且从现在到那时，英特尔将继续失去市场份额。看多者表示，英特尔将稳定其份额，风险反映在其股价是今年预计收益的11倍，约为大盘价格的一半。巴伦周刊一直看好英特尔的重塑努力。犹豫不决的投资者可能想等到11月份，届时英特尔将召开分析师会议，并可能为其计划定价。</blockquote> Plenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.<blockquote>大量资金将花在设备上。EUV机器由ASML控股公司(ASML)制造，该公司现在拥有巨大的权力。看好英特尔的Needham分析师奎因·博尔顿(Quinn Bolton)表示：“就ASML想要决定代工领域的市场份额而言，它将这些制造席位分配给谁将具有相当大的影响力。”</blockquote> Gelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”<blockquote>基辛格表示，他现在已经拥有了所需的EUV机器。谈到high-NA以及他与ASML的合同关系，他表示，“我们将成为这些工具的第一批生产用户。”</blockquote> ASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.<blockquote>正如您可能想象的那样，ASML股票的定价是今年盈利预测的48倍，距离天堂还差一埃。EUV机器的买家也需要其他公司的设备。博尔顿最喜欢的股票投资者是应用材料公司（AMAT）。多年来，它的价格已经上涨了五倍，但市盈率仍为20倍左右。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/intel-new-ceo-wait-to-buy-stock-51627685968?mod=mw_latestnews&tesla=y\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/intel-new-ceo-wait-to-buy-stock-51627685968?mod=mw_latestnews&tesla=y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115580649","content_text":"Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.\nThis past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”\nThis year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.\nThe trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.\nHow did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.\nAnd it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.\nThere have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.\nThe stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.\nA positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.\nThe CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.\nSpeaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”\nNow, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.\nThe new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.\nBulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.Barron’shas been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.\nPlenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.\nGelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”\nASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}