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shawntanjx
2021-07-29

AMD Is The New Bellwether<blockquote>AMD是新的领头羊</blockquote>

Summary AMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to

AMD Is The New Bellwether<blockquote>AMD是新的领头羊</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":808199238,"tweetId":"808199238","gmtCreate":1627562776024,"gmtModify":1633763789539,"author":{"id":4090219324851220,"idStr":"4090219324851220","authorId":4090219324851220,"authorIdStr":"4090219324851220","name":"shawntanjx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7978862e02d8a1838ea3f48808ad8d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808199238","repostId":1131779285,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131779285","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627551074,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131779285?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Is The New Bellwether<blockquote>AMD是新的领头羊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131779285","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>AMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to be.</li> <li>The revenue growth and valuations prove the market wants one thing: Growth.</li> <li>Intel has lost the bellwether title as it grows below the industry and AMD grows above it.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a41ea3a1a9c98364332ee70330427e8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">nantonov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>AMD周二的收益报告让我不知所措，不知道我的钱需要花在哪里。</li><li>收入增长和估值证明市场想要一件事：增长。</li><li>英特尔失去了领头羊的头衔，因为它的增长低于行业，而AMD的增长高于行业。</li></ul>nantonov/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> It's hard to deny AMD (AMD) isn't the new up-and-coming bellwether of logic semiconductors, a position undoubtedly claimed by the chip king Intel (INTC). With AMD's&nbsp;latest earnings report&nbsp;on Tuesday, the title is no longer uncontested, even with the dramatic difference in absolute dollar figures between the two. One is growing big time while the other has been in a perpetual state of discord, in part or in whole, due to unresolved business direction. On Tuesday, AMD proved it isn't relenting any time soon in its pursuit of taking the semiconductor bellwether title. In fact, it may change the definition altogether as the growth it's producing in this sector is unheard of. It's time I give AMD the thumbs up and not just watch on the sidelines.<blockquote>不可否认的是，AMD(AMD)并不是逻辑半导体领域后起之秀，芯片之王英特尔(INTC)无疑占据了这一地位。随着AMD周二发布最新财报，尽管两者之间的绝对美元数字存在巨大差异，但这一头衔不再毫无争议。一个正在成长，而另一个由于未解决的业务方向，部分或全部处于永久的不和谐状态。周二，AMD证明了它不会很快放松对半导体领头羊头衔的追求。事实上，它可能会完全改变定义，因为它在这个行业产生的增长是闻所未闻的。现在是我给AMD竖起大拇指的时候了，而不仅仅是袖手旁观。</blockquote> Growth, Growth, Growth<blockquote>成长，成长，成长</blockquote> Much like the age-old adage for real estate of \"location, location, location\" to sell property, growth, growth, growth is the market's adage for share returns.<blockquote>就像房地产的古老格言“位置，位置，位置”出售房产一样，增长，增长，增长是市场对股票回报的格言。</blockquote> The market is simple when it comes to tech and anything to do with it: It pays for growth, not indecision. AMD is growing, Intel is indecisive. And not just decision-making indecisive, I'm talking business execution indecisive. AMD is proving it can produce monstrous growth, and Intel is proving incremental growth is all it can do.<blockquote>当谈到科技和任何与之相关的事情时，市场很简单：它为增长买单，而不是优柔寡断。AMD在成长，英特尔犹豫不决。不仅仅是决策优柔寡断，我说的是业务执行优柔寡断。AMD正在证明它可以产生巨大的增长，而英特尔正在证明它所能做的就是增量增长。</blockquote> The chart is simple. These are two very different companies:<blockquote>图表很简单。这是两家截然不同的公司：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64f87e5b692256d2b0c4584ad37e8fdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart mine, data from AMD and Intel earnings reports (non-GAAP for Intel)<blockquote>图表我的数据来自AMD和英特尔收益报告（英特尔的非公认会计准则）</blockquote> Both companies experienced a similar slowdown during the pandemic quarter of last year (Q2), but these two companies couldn't be any more different from there. While Intel struggled to find growth, especially in the data center division, AMD was stacking bills in all categories, including EPYC sales, except for a seasonal lull in semi-custom after a large gaming console launch.<blockquote>两家公司在去年的大流行季度（第二季度）都经历了类似的放缓，但这两家公司与此有着天壤之别。虽然英特尔努力寻求增长，特别是在数据中心部门，但AMD在所有类别中都在堆积账单，包括EPYC的销售，除了大型游戏机发布后半定制的季节性平静。</blockquote> Since then, the story has been very dull for Intel, with flatlined or negative growth while AMD nearly doubled growth over the trough of the pandemic with its latest report.<blockquote>从那时起，英特尔的情况就非常平淡，增长持平或出现负增长，而AMD在最新报告中的增长几乎比疫情低谷时期翻了一番。</blockquote> A slow down to 46%-50% in Q3 from 100% in Q2 and even from 55% to 50% year-over-year is to be expected as the great gaming console launch of 2020 will not repeat at the same level. But, to still guide for near 50% growth with that tough comp is what, in part, is driving my bullishness.<blockquote>预计第三季度将从第二季度的100%放缓至46%-50%，甚至同比从55%放缓至50%，因为2020年的大型游戏机发布不会在同一水平上重演。但是，在如此艰难的竞争中仍能实现近50%的增长，这在一定程度上推动了我的乐观情绪。</blockquote> The Valuation Proves It<blockquote>估值证明了</blockquote> Now, of course, the market is in fact paying differently for both companies. The crucial difference is growth paves the way for better returns while stagnating growth paves the way for declines. The stock prices reflect as much:<blockquote>当然，现在市场实际上为两家公司支付的费用不同。关键的区别在于，增长为更好的回报铺平了道路，而增长停滞为下降铺平了道路。股票价格反映了：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dad2d35040d78da964efd16dcb1a6c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> But the valuations also keep pace with the market's expectations:<blockquote>但估值也符合市场预期：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd156a2787d8c3774149c77bf71063b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> (AMD with Q2 and updated guidance should push the forward P/E to ~38)<blockquote>（AMD第二季度和更新的指引应会将预期市盈率推至约38）</blockquote> AMD's growth is worth (now) around 38 times earnings. But if you put the stock chart and the PE chart over each other, one continues to rise while the other continues to grow into it (compressing). On the other hand, Intel continues to meander as its valuation remains sideways and revenue continues to struggle, resulting in a diminishing stock return.<blockquote>AMD的增长价值（现在）约为市盈率的38倍。但是如果你把股票图表和PE图表放在一起，一个继续上涨，而另一个继续增长（压缩）。另一方面，英特尔继续徘徊，因为其估值仍然横盘整理，收入继续挣扎，导致股票回报递减。</blockquote> The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Intel bulls - you can say Intel has loads more cash flow and much higher revenue numbers (and it does), but the market isn't paying for that - clearly, as the stock price is stagnant over the last one-and-a-half years. The market is paying for growth. Period. Intel has very little to none, and AMD continues to prove it has it and more.<blockquote>看好英特尔——你可以说英特尔拥有更多的现金流和更高的收入数字（确实如此），但市场并没有为此买单——显然，因为股价在过去一年半的时间里停滞不前。市场正在为增长买单。周期。英特尔几乎没有，AMD继续证明它有，甚至更多。</blockquote> You can be a fanboy of either company, but what good is being a fanboy if you're not getting a return on your cheerleading?<blockquote>你可以成为任何一家公司的粉丝，但是如果你的啦啦队没有得到回报，做粉丝又有什么用呢？</blockquote> One can continue to keep their money in Intel and collect 8%, including dividends, over two years, or carefully invest it in growth, which AMD is providing. This doesn't mean I love AMD's products - its graphics division leaves a lot to be desired (true ray tracing, DLSS 2.0, etc.) - but I can't stand by and hope Intel figures it out while AMD puts up the numbers it has been.<blockquote>人们可以继续将资金留在英特尔并在两年内收取8%（包括股息），或者谨慎地将其投资于AMD提供的增长。这并不意味着我喜欢AMD的产品——它的图形部门还有很多不足之处（真光线跟踪、DLSS 2.0等。）–但我不能袖手旁观，希望英特尔在AMD公布数据时能解决这个问题。</blockquote> The Bellwether Title Up For Grabs<blockquote>领头羊头衔待争夺</blockquote> The basis for AMD taking over the bellwether position is because Intel can no longer provide the barometer for what the industry is doing. The semiconductor industry isn't shrinking. It's growing. From 2020 to 2021,the logic semiconductor industry is expected to grow 17%&nbsp;and over 6% from 2021 to 2022. Intel doesn't see that, it's below it. AMD doesn't see that, it's above it.<blockquote>AMD接过领头羊位置的基础是因为英特尔已经无法提供行业正在做什么的晴雨表。半导体行业并没有萎缩。它在增长。2020年至2021年，逻辑半导体行业预计增长17%，2021年至2022年增长超过6%。英特尔没有看到这一点，它在它下面。AMD没有看到这一点，它在它之上。</blockquote> I know which one is going to give me the heartbeat of the industry.<blockquote>我知道哪一个会给我行业的心跳。</blockquote> You tell me which one is going to produce returns over the next year to two years.<blockquote>你告诉我哪一个会在未来一到两年内产生回报。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Is The New Bellwether<blockquote>AMD是新的领头羊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Is The New Bellwether<blockquote>AMD是新的领头羊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-07-29 17:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>AMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to be.</li> <li>The revenue growth and valuations prove the market wants one thing: Growth.</li> <li>Intel has lost the bellwether title as it grows below the industry and AMD grows above it.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a41ea3a1a9c98364332ee70330427e8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">nantonov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>AMD周二的收益报告让我不知所措，不知道我的钱需要花在哪里。</li><li>收入增长和估值证明市场想要一件事：增长。</li><li>英特尔失去了领头羊的头衔，因为它的增长低于行业，而AMD的增长高于行业。</li></ul>nantonov/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> It's hard to deny AMD (AMD) isn't the new up-and-coming bellwether of logic semiconductors, a position undoubtedly claimed by the chip king Intel (INTC). With AMD's&nbsp;latest earnings report&nbsp;on Tuesday, the title is no longer uncontested, even with the dramatic difference in absolute dollar figures between the two. One is growing big time while the other has been in a perpetual state of discord, in part or in whole, due to unresolved business direction. On Tuesday, AMD proved it isn't relenting any time soon in its pursuit of taking the semiconductor bellwether title. In fact, it may change the definition altogether as the growth it's producing in this sector is unheard of. It's time I give AMD the thumbs up and not just watch on the sidelines.<blockquote>不可否认的是，AMD(AMD)并不是逻辑半导体领域后起之秀，芯片之王英特尔(INTC)无疑占据了这一地位。随着AMD周二发布最新财报，尽管两者之间的绝对美元数字存在巨大差异，但这一头衔不再毫无争议。一个正在成长，而另一个由于未解决的业务方向，部分或全部处于永久的不和谐状态。周二，AMD证明了它不会很快放松对半导体领头羊头衔的追求。事实上，它可能会完全改变定义，因为它在这个行业产生的增长是闻所未闻的。现在是我给AMD竖起大拇指的时候了，而不仅仅是袖手旁观。</blockquote> Growth, Growth, Growth<blockquote>成长，成长，成长</blockquote> Much like the age-old adage for real estate of \"location, location, location\" to sell property, growth, growth, growth is the market's adage for share returns.<blockquote>就像房地产的古老格言“位置，位置，位置”出售房产一样，增长，增长，增长是市场对股票回报的格言。</blockquote> The market is simple when it comes to tech and anything to do with it: It pays for growth, not indecision. AMD is growing, Intel is indecisive. And not just decision-making indecisive, I'm talking business execution indecisive. AMD is proving it can produce monstrous growth, and Intel is proving incremental growth is all it can do.<blockquote>当谈到科技和任何与之相关的事情时，市场很简单：它为增长买单，而不是优柔寡断。AMD在成长，英特尔犹豫不决。不仅仅是决策优柔寡断，我说的是业务执行优柔寡断。AMD正在证明它可以产生巨大的增长，而英特尔正在证明它所能做的就是增量增长。</blockquote> The chart is simple. These are two very different companies:<blockquote>图表很简单。这是两家截然不同的公司：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64f87e5b692256d2b0c4584ad37e8fdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart mine, data from AMD and Intel earnings reports (non-GAAP for Intel)<blockquote>图表我的数据来自AMD和英特尔收益报告（英特尔的非公认会计准则）</blockquote> Both companies experienced a similar slowdown during the pandemic quarter of last year (Q2), but these two companies couldn't be any more different from there. While Intel struggled to find growth, especially in the data center division, AMD was stacking bills in all categories, including EPYC sales, except for a seasonal lull in semi-custom after a large gaming console launch.<blockquote>两家公司在去年的大流行季度（第二季度）都经历了类似的放缓，但这两家公司与此有着天壤之别。虽然英特尔努力寻求增长，特别是在数据中心部门，但AMD在所有类别中都在堆积账单，包括EPYC的销售，除了大型游戏机发布后半定制的季节性平静。</blockquote> Since then, the story has been very dull for Intel, with flatlined or negative growth while AMD nearly doubled growth over the trough of the pandemic with its latest report.<blockquote>从那时起，英特尔的情况就非常平淡，增长持平或出现负增长，而AMD在最新报告中的增长几乎比疫情低谷时期翻了一番。</blockquote> A slow down to 46%-50% in Q3 from 100% in Q2 and even from 55% to 50% year-over-year is to be expected as the great gaming console launch of 2020 will not repeat at the same level. But, to still guide for near 50% growth with that tough comp is what, in part, is driving my bullishness.<blockquote>预计第三季度将从第二季度的100%放缓至46%-50%，甚至同比从55%放缓至50%，因为2020年的大型游戏机发布不会在同一水平上重演。但是，在如此艰难的竞争中仍能实现近50%的增长，这在一定程度上推动了我的乐观情绪。</blockquote> The Valuation Proves It<blockquote>估值证明了</blockquote> Now, of course, the market is in fact paying differently for both companies. The crucial difference is growth paves the way for better returns while stagnating growth paves the way for declines. The stock prices reflect as much:<blockquote>当然，现在市场实际上为两家公司支付的费用不同。关键的区别在于，增长为更好的回报铺平了道路，而增长停滞为下降铺平了道路。股票价格反映了：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dad2d35040d78da964efd16dcb1a6c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> But the valuations also keep pace with the market's expectations:<blockquote>但估值也符合市场预期：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd156a2787d8c3774149c77bf71063b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> (AMD with Q2 and updated guidance should push the forward P/E to ~38)<blockquote>（AMD第二季度和更新的指引应会将预期市盈率推至约38）</blockquote> AMD's growth is worth (now) around 38 times earnings. But if you put the stock chart and the PE chart over each other, one continues to rise while the other continues to grow into it (compressing). On the other hand, Intel continues to meander as its valuation remains sideways and revenue continues to struggle, resulting in a diminishing stock return.<blockquote>AMD的增长价值（现在）约为市盈率的38倍。但是如果你把股票图表和PE图表放在一起，一个继续上涨，而另一个继续增长（压缩）。另一方面，英特尔继续徘徊，因为其估值仍然横盘整理，收入继续挣扎，导致股票回报递减。</blockquote> The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Intel bulls - you can say Intel has loads more cash flow and much higher revenue numbers (and it does), but the market isn't paying for that - clearly, as the stock price is stagnant over the last one-and-a-half years. The market is paying for growth. Period. Intel has very little to none, and AMD continues to prove it has it and more.<blockquote>看好英特尔——你可以说英特尔拥有更多的现金流和更高的收入数字（确实如此），但市场并没有为此买单——显然，因为股价在过去一年半的时间里停滞不前。市场正在为增长买单。周期。英特尔几乎没有，AMD继续证明它有，甚至更多。</blockquote> You can be a fanboy of either company, but what good is being a fanboy if you're not getting a return on your cheerleading?<blockquote>你可以成为任何一家公司的粉丝，但是如果你的啦啦队没有得到回报，做粉丝又有什么用呢？</blockquote> One can continue to keep their money in Intel and collect 8%, including dividends, over two years, or carefully invest it in growth, which AMD is providing. This doesn't mean I love AMD's products - its graphics division leaves a lot to be desired (true ray tracing, DLSS 2.0, etc.) - but I can't stand by and hope Intel figures it out while AMD puts up the numbers it has been.<blockquote>人们可以继续将资金留在英特尔并在两年内收取8%（包括股息），或者谨慎地将其投资于AMD提供的增长。这并不意味着我喜欢AMD的产品——它的图形部门还有很多不足之处（真光线跟踪、DLSS 2.0等。）–但我不能袖手旁观，希望英特尔在AMD公布数据时能解决这个问题。</blockquote> The Bellwether Title Up For Grabs<blockquote>领头羊头衔待争夺</blockquote> The basis for AMD taking over the bellwether position is because Intel can no longer provide the barometer for what the industry is doing. The semiconductor industry isn't shrinking. It's growing. From 2020 to 2021,the logic semiconductor industry is expected to grow 17%&nbsp;and over 6% from 2021 to 2022. Intel doesn't see that, it's below it. AMD doesn't see that, it's above it.<blockquote>AMD接过领头羊位置的基础是因为英特尔已经无法提供行业正在做什么的晴雨表。半导体行业并没有萎缩。它在增长。2020年至2021年，逻辑半导体行业预计增长17%，2021年至2022年增长超过6%。英特尔没有看到这一点，它在它下面。AMD没有看到这一点，它在它之上。</blockquote> I know which one is going to give me the heartbeat of the industry.<blockquote>我知道哪一个会给我行业的心跳。</blockquote> You tell me which one is going to produce returns over the next year to two years.<blockquote>你告诉我哪一个会在未来一到两年内产生回报。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442043-amd-is-the-new-bellwether\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442043-amd-is-the-new-bellwether","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131779285","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to be.\nThe revenue growth and valuations prove the market wants one thing: Growth.\nIntel has lost the bellwether title as it grows below the industry and AMD grows above it.\n\nnantonov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIt's hard to deny AMD (AMD) isn't the new up-and-coming bellwether of logic semiconductors, a position undoubtedly claimed by the chip king Intel (INTC). With AMD's latest earnings report on Tuesday, the title is no longer uncontested, even with the dramatic difference in absolute dollar figures between the two. One is growing big time while the other has been in a perpetual state of discord, in part or in whole, due to unresolved business direction. On Tuesday, AMD proved it isn't relenting any time soon in its pursuit of taking the semiconductor bellwether title. In fact, it may change the definition altogether as the growth it's producing in this sector is unheard of. It's time I give AMD the thumbs up and not just watch on the sidelines.\nGrowth, Growth, Growth\nMuch like the age-old adage for real estate of \"location, location, location\" to sell property, growth, growth, growth is the market's adage for share returns.\nThe market is simple when it comes to tech and anything to do with it: It pays for growth, not indecision. AMD is growing, Intel is indecisive. And not just decision-making indecisive, I'm talking business execution indecisive. AMD is proving it can produce monstrous growth, and Intel is proving incremental growth is all it can do.\nThe chart is simple. These are two very different companies:\nChart mine, data from AMD and Intel earnings reports (non-GAAP for Intel)\nBoth companies experienced a similar slowdown during the pandemic quarter of last year (Q2), but these two companies couldn't be any more different from there. While Intel struggled to find growth, especially in the data center division, AMD was stacking bills in all categories, including EPYC sales, except for a seasonal lull in semi-custom after a large gaming console launch.\nSince then, the story has been very dull for Intel, with flatlined or negative growth while AMD nearly doubled growth over the trough of the pandemic with its latest report.\nA slow down to 46%-50% in Q3 from 100% in Q2 and even from 55% to 50% year-over-year is to be expected as the great gaming console launch of 2020 will not repeat at the same level. But, to still guide for near 50% growth with that tough comp is what, in part, is driving my bullishness.\nThe Valuation Proves It\nNow, of course, the market is in fact paying differently for both companies. The crucial difference is growth paves the way for better returns while stagnating growth paves the way for declines. The stock prices reflect as much:\nData by YCharts\nBut the valuations also keep pace with the market's expectations:\nData by YCharts\n(AMD with Q2 and updated guidance should push the forward P/E to ~38)\nAMD's growth is worth (now) around 38 times earnings. But if you put the stock chart and the PE chart over each other, one continues to rise while the other continues to grow into it (compressing). On the other hand, Intel continues to meander as its valuation remains sideways and revenue continues to struggle, resulting in a diminishing stock return.\nThe Bottom Line\nIntel bulls - you can say Intel has loads more cash flow and much higher revenue numbers (and it does), but the market isn't paying for that - clearly, as the stock price is stagnant over the last one-and-a-half years. The market is paying for growth. Period. Intel has very little to none, and AMD continues to prove it has it and more.\nYou can be a fanboy of either company, but what good is being a fanboy if you're not getting a return on your cheerleading?\nOne can continue to keep their money in Intel and collect 8%, including dividends, over two years, or carefully invest it in growth, which AMD is providing. This doesn't mean I love AMD's products - its graphics division leaves a lot to be desired (true ray tracing, DLSS 2.0, etc.) - but I can't stand by and hope Intel figures it out while AMD puts up the numbers it has been.\nThe Bellwether Title Up For Grabs\nThe basis for AMD taking over the bellwether position is because Intel can no longer provide the barometer for what the industry is doing. The semiconductor industry isn't shrinking. It's growing. From 2020 to 2021,the logic semiconductor industry is expected to grow 17% and over 6% from 2021 to 2022. Intel doesn't see that, it's below it. AMD doesn't see that, it's above it.\nI know which one is going to give me the heartbeat of the industry.\nYou tell me which one is going to produce returns over the next year to two years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1571,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}