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2021-07-29

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Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>

When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors

Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>

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What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.<blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.<blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.<blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.<blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.<blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.<blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.<blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. 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What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-07-29 18:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhen the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.<blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.<blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.<blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.<blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.<blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.<blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.<blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1456,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}