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tchaikovskia
2021-10-13

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Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市何时开始你不会知道</blockquote>

It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market AFP via Getty Images

Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市何时开始你不会知道</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":822190110,"tweetId":"822190110","gmtCreate":1634098166054,"gmtModify":1634099001883,"author":{"id":3582428558829452,"idStr":"3582428558829452","authorId":3582428558829452,"authorIdStr":"3582428558829452","name":"tchaikovskia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Sweet nuts</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Sweet nuts</body></html>","text":"Sweet nuts","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822190110","repostId":1198930462,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市何时开始你不会知道</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market<blockquote>制定一个可以度过熊市的策略至关重要</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AFP via Getty Images<blockquote>法新社来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.<blockquote>2007年10月9日，也就是14年前的这个星期，股市在金融危机引发的熊市开始之前触及牛市高点。</blockquote> I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.<blockquote>我敢打赌，那天你脑子里想的最后一件事就是新的熊市是否开始了。相反，你无疑分享了伴随另一个牛市新高而来的繁荣。标普500比五年前牛市开始时高出120%。</blockquote> And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.<blockquote>然而，美国历史上最严重的熊市之一就在那一天开始了。标普500在随后的16个月内将失去55%.</blockquote> This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.<blockquote>这种回忆很重要，因为它提醒我们牛市顶部并不是实时识别的。只有在事实发生之后，牛市才明显结束。</blockquote> Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.<blockquote>许多客户强烈反对我的观点，坚持认为他们实际上对牛市在2007年10月见顶有很好的感觉。但几乎可以肯定，他们正在改写历史，这是可以理解的。重写过去是人类的天性，让事情看起来很明显会像他们一样展开。</blockquote> But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.<blockquote>但2007-2009年熊市的开始在当时一点也不明显。</blockquote> If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.<blockquote>如果您有任何疑问，请考虑我的公司每天监控的近100个短期股市计时器子集中推荐的平均股票敞口。（这个平均值是赫伯特股票时事通讯情绪指数（HSNSI）所代表的。）平均而言，HSNSI在牛市见顶的当天达到最高水平。</blockquote> This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.<blockquote>这在附图中进行了说明。它对过去40年中每次牛市顶部之前六周和之后六周的HSNSI进行了平均值（根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历）。如您所见，HSNSI在平均牛市的最后六周上涨20个百分点，然后在随后的熊市的前六周暴跌40个百分点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?<blockquote>换句话说，平均而言，专业市场计时器在他们应该最悲观的日子里最乐观。他们是专业人士，每天都在跟踪市场。如果他们不能做得更好，那你凭什么认为你可以？</blockquote> Comments of market timers<blockquote>市场计时器的评论</blockquote> I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:<blockquote>我认为这些统计数据提供了令人信服的理由。但为了锦上添花，请考虑时事通讯编辑在2007年10月市场顶部当天或之前几天发表的具有代表性的评论样本：</blockquote> <ul> <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li> <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li> <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li> <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li> <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li> <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li> </ul> Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.<blockquote><ul><li>“如果你仔细听，你可以听到隆隆声。那隆隆声是这场大牛市第三阶段的遥远雷声……我看到了美好的时光在翻滚，我真的看到了。”</li><li>“我已经有一段时间没有对用我们的大笔资金获得巨大收益的潜力充满信心了。因此，如果您还没有这样做，那么您必须尽快将资金投入这个[股票]市场。时间不等人，你的钱在等着你。所以去吧。”</li><li>“全球股市牛市不仅仍在继续，而且……还进入了强劲阶段……既然美联储已经挥舞着利率下降的旗帜，确实没有什么可以阻碍市场。”</li><li>“道琼斯指数16,000点我们来了……在我们看来，股市将在未来3到6个月内展开竞争。”[2007年10月牛市顶部当天道指为14,165点。]</li><li>“周期性熊市跌幅超过20%的风险并未出现在雷达屏幕上。”</li><li>“长期牛市完好无损……你应该在任何疲软时买入。”</li></ul>他们的旺盛是显而易见的，不是吗？很有可能你那天也有这种感觉——不管你今天给自己讲了什么故事。</blockquote> Investment lesson<blockquote>投资课</blockquote> The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.<blockquote>投资含义很明确：不要指望能够为了避开熊市而减少股票敞口。</blockquote> This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.<blockquote>这就是为什么你应该设计并遵循一个你可以度过熊市的策略。如果你在牛市期间100%投资，直到标普500顶部的那一天，然后在牛市期间转为100%现金，那么它不一定能赚到理论上最大值那么多钱。熊市的持续时间。但是在现实世界中没有人能达到理论上的最大值。</blockquote> The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.<blockquote>换句话说，完美是好的敌人。</blockquote> For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.<blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道熊市是否已经开始。距离标普500触及迄今为止的牛市高点已经过去一个多月了，目前的交易价格比该高点低了近3%。</blockquote> But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.<blockquote>但如果它已经开始，我们要到几个月后市场大幅下跌时才能确定。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市何时开始你不会知道</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市何时开始你不会知道</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-10-12 21:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market<blockquote>制定一个可以度过熊市的策略至关重要</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AFP via Getty Images<blockquote>法新社来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.<blockquote>2007年10月9日，也就是14年前的这个星期，股市在金融危机引发的熊市开始之前触及牛市高点。</blockquote> I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.<blockquote>我敢打赌，那天你脑子里想的最后一件事就是新的熊市是否开始了。相反，你无疑分享了伴随另一个牛市新高而来的繁荣。标普500比五年前牛市开始时高出120%。</blockquote> And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.<blockquote>然而，美国历史上最严重的熊市之一就在那一天开始了。标普500在随后的16个月内将失去55%.</blockquote> This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.<blockquote>这种回忆很重要，因为它提醒我们牛市顶部并不是实时识别的。只有在事实发生之后，牛市才明显结束。</blockquote> Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.<blockquote>许多客户强烈反对我的观点，坚持认为他们实际上对牛市在2007年10月见顶有很好的感觉。但几乎可以肯定，他们正在改写历史，这是可以理解的。重写过去是人类的天性，让事情看起来很明显会像他们一样展开。</blockquote> But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.<blockquote>但2007-2009年熊市的开始在当时一点也不明显。</blockquote> If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.<blockquote>如果您有任何疑问，请考虑我的公司每天监控的近100个短期股市计时器子集中推荐的平均股票敞口。（这个平均值是赫伯特股票时事通讯情绪指数（HSNSI）所代表的。）平均而言，HSNSI在牛市见顶的当天达到最高水平。</blockquote> This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.<blockquote>这在附图中进行了说明。它对过去40年中每次牛市顶部之前六周和之后六周的HSNSI进行了平均值（根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历）。如您所见，HSNSI在平均牛市的最后六周上涨20个百分点，然后在随后的熊市的前六周暴跌40个百分点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?<blockquote>换句话说，平均而言，专业市场计时器在他们应该最悲观的日子里最乐观。他们是专业人士，每天都在跟踪市场。如果他们不能做得更好，那你凭什么认为你可以？</blockquote> Comments of market timers<blockquote>市场计时器的评论</blockquote> I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:<blockquote>我认为这些统计数据提供了令人信服的理由。但为了锦上添花，请考虑时事通讯编辑在2007年10月市场顶部当天或之前几天发表的具有代表性的评论样本：</blockquote> <ul> <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li> <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li> <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li> <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li> <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li> <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li> </ul> Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.<blockquote><ul><li>“如果你仔细听，你可以听到隆隆声。那隆隆声是这场大牛市第三阶段的遥远雷声……我看到了美好的时光在翻滚，我真的看到了。”</li><li>“我已经有一段时间没有对用我们的大笔资金获得巨大收益的潜力充满信心了。因此，如果您还没有这样做，那么您必须尽快将资金投入这个[股票]市场。时间不等人，你的钱在等着你。所以去吧。”</li><li>“全球股市牛市不仅仍在继续，而且……还进入了强劲阶段……既然美联储已经挥舞着利率下降的旗帜，确实没有什么可以阻碍市场。”</li><li>“道琼斯指数16,000点我们来了……在我们看来，股市将在未来3到6个月内展开竞争。”[2007年10月牛市顶部当天道指为14,165点。]</li><li>“周期性熊市跌幅超过20%的风险并未出现在雷达屏幕上。”</li><li>“长期牛市完好无损……你应该在任何疲软时买入。”</li></ul>他们的旺盛是显而易见的，不是吗？很有可能你那天也有这种感觉——不管你今天给自己讲了什么故事。</blockquote> Investment lesson<blockquote>投资课</blockquote> The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.<blockquote>投资含义很明确：不要指望能够为了避开熊市而减少股票敞口。</blockquote> This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.<blockquote>这就是为什么你应该设计并遵循一个你可以度过熊市的策略。如果你在牛市期间100%投资，直到标普500顶部的那一天，然后在牛市期间转为100%现金，那么它不一定能赚到理论上最大值那么多钱。熊市的持续时间。但是在现实世界中没有人能达到理论上的最大值。</blockquote> The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.<blockquote>换句话说，完美是好的敌人。</blockquote> For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.<blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道熊市是否已经开始。距离标普500触及迄今为止的牛市高点已经过去一个多月了，目前的交易价格比该高点低了近3%。</blockquote> But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.<blockquote>但如果它已经开始，我们要到几个月后市场大幅下跌时才能确定。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2023,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}