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2021-10-07

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Skillz Stock: Is It A Buy, Or Is It A Value Trap?<blockquote>Skillz股票：是买入，还是价值陷阱？</blockquote>

Summary Skillz is a mobile gaming technology platform. The company focuses on enabling monetization

Skillz Stock: Is It A Buy, Or Is It A Value Trap?<blockquote>Skillz股票：是买入，还是价值陷阱？</blockquote>

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The company focuses on enabling monetization","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Skillz is a mobile gaming technology platform. The company focuses on enabling monetization opportunities through competition.</li> <li>It has been spending heavily on user acquisition. It has managed to improve its paying MAU ratio. However, its falling total MAU base could be a concern.</li> <li>The stock still trades at a premium despite a -61.8% YTD performance. We address in this article whether the stock is worth adding for investors now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/419db089ba5af30b574a8474cfb9050a\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">cokada/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Skillz是一个移动游戏技术平台。该公司专注于通过竞争创造货币化机会。</li><li>它一直在用户获取上投入巨资。它已成功提高了付费月活跃用户数比率。然而，其总月活跃用户基数的下降可能是一个令人担忧的问题。</li><li>尽管年初至今表现为-61.8%，但该股的交易价格仍然溢价。我们在本文中讨论该股票现在是否值得投资者增持。</li></ul>cokada/E+来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ)is a mobile gaming technology platform. The company focuses on enabling monetization opportunities through competition. In contrast to other gaming platforms that monetize through in-app purchases [IAP] or in-app advertising [IAA]. The company believes that the business model of such platforms is \"broken.\" Furthermore, the company believes that the future of gaming is moving towards eSports. Hence, Skillz Inc. is on a mission to \"democratize gaming&nbsp;by leveling the playing field for access [to developers] to build esports.\"<blockquote>Skillz（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKLZ）是一个移动游戏技术平台。该公司专注于通过竞争创造货币化机会。与其他通过应用内购买[IAP]或应用内广告[IAA]赚钱的游戏平台相比。该公司认为，此类平台的商业模式“被打破”。此外，该公司认为游戏的未来正在走向电子竞技。因此，Skillz Inc.的使命是“通过为（开发者）建立电子竞技创造公平的竞争环境来实现游戏民主化。”</blockquote> However,in our previous article, we explained that IAP and IAA are unlikely to be irrelevant anytime soon. Major game publishers continue to rely on these proven monetization models. We also showed that the majority of gamers are supportive of such models. Moreover, eSports is also not unique to SKLZ. Major game developers such as Garena(NYSE:SE)have also been leveraging on eSports. eSports allow game developers to build a highly engaged community of gamers.<blockquote>然而，在我们之前的文章中，我们解释过IAP和IAA不太可能在短期内不相关。主要游戏发行商继续依赖这些经过验证的货币化模式。我们还表明，大多数游戏玩家都支持这种模式。而且，电竞也不是SKLZ独有的。Garena（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）等主要游戏开发商也一直在利用电子竞技。电子竞技允许游戏开发者建立一个高度参与的游戏玩家社区。</blockquote> We continue to remain shareholders of SKLZ stock. However, the stock is down more than 20% from our initial buy price. In addition, we highlighted before that it's a speculative stock for our portfolio. Hence, the exposure is much smaller than our core holdings. Nevertheless, we have no qualms in continuing to hold it for the longer term.<blockquote>我们仍然是SKLZ股票的股东。然而，该股较我们最初的买入价格下跌了20%以上。此外，我们之前强调过，它是我们投资组合中的投机性股票。因此，风险敞口远小于我们的核心持股。然而，我们毫不犹豫地继续长期持有它。</blockquote> We will present our thesis on whether the stock's current weakness represents an opportunity for investors to add exposure.<blockquote>我们将就该股目前的疲软是否代表投资者增加投资的机会发表论文。</blockquote> SKLZ Stock YTD Performance<blockquote>SKLZ股票年初至今表现</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1845c53df3559cbde4c5840c38e760c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SKLZ Stock YTD performance (as of 5 Oct 21).<blockquote>SKLZ股票年初至今表现（截至21年10月5日）。</blockquote> Gaming stocks had a terrible year so far. SKLZ stock's YTD performance was the worst here. The stock returned -61.8% YTD. It had started so brightly as it raced close to a 100% YTD lead in February. Unfortunately, that momentum has turned bearish and wiped out all its gains within a month. Except for SE, gaming stocks have significantly underperformed the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY)in 2021.<blockquote>到目前为止，博彩股经历了糟糕的一年。SKLZ股票年初至今的表现是这里最差的。该股今年迄今的回报率为-61.8%。该公司开局非常出色，2月份年初至今的领先优势接近100%。不幸的是，这种势头已经转为看跌，并在一个月内抹去了所有涨幅。除SE外，博彩股在2021年的表现明显落后于SPDR标普500 ETF（NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF）。</blockquote> Skillz is Investing Aggressively for Growth<blockquote>Skillz正在积极投资以实现增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0638505559f43d708cf16af67fdc5ce4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Skillz gross margins and SG&amp;A margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Skillz毛利率和SG&amp;A利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845092c517937e2475c2dc9e3e993c9e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Skillz take rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Skillz采取率。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Skillz operates with an \"asset-light,\" low direct costs business model. It doesn't need to hire and retain expensively assembled developer teams. Instead, it's a platform for developers to build their games for monetization on Skillz's competition platform. Therefore, Skillz takes a commission from its net gross marketplace volume (GMV). The commission is defined as its take rate.<blockquote>Skillz采用“轻资产”、低直接成本的商业模式运营。它不需要雇佣和留住昂贵的开发团队。相反，它是开发者在Skillz的竞争平台上构建游戏以货币化的平台。因此，Skillz从其净市场总量(GMV)中收取佣金。佣金被定义为它的接受率。</blockquote> Skillz has maintained a consistent take rate over time. The company posted a take rate of 14.7% in FQ2'21. However, Skillz also highlighted that it could increase its take rate in the future to boost monetization. Such opportunities could arise if it could attract more paying users to its platform.<blockquote>随着时间的推移，Skillz一直保持着稳定的录取率。该公司21年第二季度的录取率为14.7%。然而，Skillz也强调，它可能会提高未来的采用率，以促进货币化。如果它能够吸引更多付费用户使用其平台，此类机会就可能出现。</blockquote> The company's gross profit is then derived from its take rate. So under its \"asset-light\" platform, it's not surprising that it has been reporting solid gross margins. The company has consistently reported gross margins of around 95%.<blockquote>然后，公司的毛利润从其接受率中得出。因此，在其“轻资产”平台下，其毛利率稳定也就不足为奇了。该公司的毛利率一直在95%左右。</blockquote> However, the main \"eyesore\" is its SG&amp;A margins. Its very high SG&amp;A margins are the main reason for its negative EBIT margins. Skillz CEO Andrew Paradise recently discussed the purpose of the company's aggressiveness in its SG&amp;A spending. He emphasized:<blockquote>然而，主要的“眼中钉”是其SG&amp;A利润率。其非常高的SG&amp;A利润率是其息税前利润率为负的主要原因。Skillz首席执行官Andrew Paradise最近讨论了该公司积极开展SG&amp;A支出的目的。他强调：</blockquote> Part of that is, as a reminder, our gross margin is 95% as a business. So we can be profitable today if we want to slow down our penetration of the massive market ahead of us. But when you think about our business, just like kind of thinking about Q2 of this year, our adjusted EBITDA margin before user acquisition was actually 17%. We just -- we believe that capturing the now $2.8 billion gamer opportunity in front of us by investing in growth with this discipline of understanding these paybacks, carefully monitoring cohort performance.(from Citi 2021 Global Technology Virtual Conference) Therefore, Paradise believes that SKLZ still has a massive opportunity to capture the growth in mobile gaming. Coupled with its eSports appeal, the company is definitely operating in a fast-growing market.<blockquote>提醒一下，其中一部分是，作为一家企业，我们的毛利率为95%。因此，如果我们想放慢对前面巨大市场的渗透速度，我们今天就可以盈利。但当你思考我们的业务时，就像思考今年第二季度一样，我们在用户获取前调整后的EBITDA利润率实际上为17%。我们只是——我们相信，通过投资增长，了解这些回报，仔细监控群体表现，抓住我们面前现在价值28亿美元的游戏玩家机会。（摘自花旗2021年全球科技虚拟大会）因此，Paradise认为SKLZ仍有巨大的机会抓住移动游戏的增长。再加上其电子竞技吸引力，该公司无疑是在一个快速增长的市场中运营。</blockquote> The important question facing investors is whether its aggressiveness makes sense. SG&amp;A margins above 140% are very costly to sustain. Importantly, SKLZ has a relatively healthy cash hoard of $693M, with no debt. Hence, the company is in a good financial position to conduct its aggressive user acquisition (UA) strategy.<blockquote>投资者面临的重要问题是，其激进主义是否有意义。SG&amp;A利润率高于140%的维持成本非常高。重要的是，SKLZ拥有相对健康的现金储备，为6.93亿美元，没有债务。因此，该公司处于良好的财务状况，可以实施其积极的用户获取（UA）战略。</blockquote> Moreover, the Aarki acquisition is also expected to help Skillz optimize its UA costs. The company highlighted that it expects to migrate about $200M in UA spending to Aarki this year. It's a sizeable amount as the company expended about $250M in SG&amp;A expenses in H1'21. The migrated spending would allow Aarki to optimize about $40M to $60M in UA costs. However, Skillz has also telegraphed that cost optimization would take time. The optimization process might take up to 24 months to complete. Therefore, the operational efficiencies from the migration to Aarki would take some time to show up.<blockquote>此外，收购Aarki也有望帮助Skillz优化其UA成本。该公司强调，预计今年将约2亿美元的UA支出转移到Aarki。这是一个相当大的数额，因为该公司在21年上半年花费了约2.5亿美元的SG&amp;A费用。迁移后的支出将使Aarki优化约4000万至6000万美元的UA成本。然而，Skillz也表示，成本优化需要时间。优化过程可能需要长达24个月才能完成。因此，迁移到Aarki的运营效率需要一段时间才能显现出来。</blockquote> But, Monthly Active Users are Falling<blockquote>但是，月活跃用户正在下降</blockquote> The company reported monthly active users (MAU) of 2.4M in FQ2'21. It followed a recent declining trend. In FQ1'21, the MAU was 2.7M. Hence, there was a marked 11.1% quarter-over-quarter ((QoQ)) drop. Moreover, YoY figures hardly changed. The company reported MAU of 2.6M in FQ1'20. It also reported MAU of 2.5M in Q2'20. Therefore, readers can easily glean that Skillz has difficulty attracting more MAU to its platform. As a result, the company might need to continue spending aggressively to maintain its MAU.<blockquote>该公司报告21年第二季度的月活跃用户(MAU)为240万。它遵循了最近的下降趋势。21年第一季度，月活跃用户数为270万。因此，环比下降了11.1%。此外，同比数据几乎没有变化。该公司报告20年第一季度的月活跃用户数为260万。该公司还报告称，20年第二季度的月活跃用户数为250万。因此，读者可以很容易地收集到Skillz很难吸引更多的MAU到其平台。因此，本公司可能需要继续大幅开支以维持其MAU。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a05cb47d9038c2fb7d912874c03a442\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"482\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Skillz Paying MAU. Source: Skillz<blockquote>斯基尔兹付钱给毛。资料来源：Skillz</blockquote> Of course, the focus of the company has always been on its Paying MAU. Paying MAU accounted for 19.3% of its total MAU base in FQ2'21. It was an improvement over FQ1'21's 17.3%. It shows that the company has been able to improve its user monetization ratio. It's also a significant improvement over FQ2'20's 12% ratio. From this perspective, it shows that the company's aggressive UA efforts seem to be making progress. Notwithstanding, we think it's still necessary for Skillz to address its declining trend of MAU. The company could certainly address the short-term gaps with improved monetization metrics. At the moment, we don't see anything amiss. But, it would likely get increasingly harder to monetize a falling MAU base.<blockquote>当然，该公司的重点一直是其付费MAU。21年第二季度，付费MAU占其总MAU基数的19.3%。这比21年第一季度的17.3%有所改善。说明公司已经能够提高用户变现率。这也比20年第二季度12%的比率有了显着改善。从这个角度来看，这表明该公司积极的UA努力似乎正在取得进展。尽管如此，我们认为Skillz仍然有必要解决MAU下降的趋势。该公司当然可以通过改进货币化指标来解决短期差距。目前，我们没有看到任何问题。但是，将不断下降的月活跃用户基数货币化可能会变得越来越困难。</blockquote> Would Venturing into Synchronous Gaming Be The Solution?<blockquote>冒险进入同步游戏会是解决方案吗？</blockquote> Skillz upped the ante by investing in Exit Games to accelerate its synchronous gaming ambitions. The most prominent genre is battle royale games. Such games include Fortnite, Garena Free Fire (SE), and PUBG Mobile(OTCPK:TCEHY). These are the most dominant mobile games in the battle royale genre today.SensorTower's Q3'21 revenue data&nbsp;shows PUBG Mobile and Garena Free Fire are the #1 and #8 games worldwide. However, it's important to note that game development has a long lead time.<blockquote>Skillz通过投资退出游戏加大了赌注，以加速其同步游戏的雄心。最突出的类型是皇家战役游戏。此类游戏包括Fortnite、Garena Free Fire(SE)和PUBG Mobile(OTCPK：TCEHY)。这些是当今皇家战役类型中最具主导地位的手机游戏。SensorTower的21年第三季度收入数据显示，PUBG Mobile和Garena Free Fire是全球排名第一和第八的游戏。然而，需要注意的是，游戏开发有很长的准备时间。</blockquote> Worldwide gaming leader Tencent clearly emphasized the challenge in developing \"original IPs.\" Tencent emphasized:<blockquote>全球游戏领导者腾讯控股明确强调了开发“原创IP”的挑战。腾讯控股强调：</blockquote> Just one point to add, right. On the gaming side, I think you emphasized [the] point [of] new creation of IPs and true, is many years before you can see final product.I think if you look at our recent pipeline of games, which we have announced of more than 40 of them, I think it's a combination, right? Some are original IPs, which would take a very long time to develop.Some are actually existing IPs that we're going to take existing assets, a pretty proven game play, and we will add our innovation for mobile, and then we developed it for launch. (from Tencent FQ1'21 earnings call) It explains why game developers \"milk\" their top titles for a significant amount of time. Hence, we are not so sure how competitive would SKLZ's new gaming titles be? Top battle royale developers derive huge profits from their top titles. They also have no problems attracting new users. These are massive cash cows for them.<blockquote>只需补充一点，对吧。在游戏方面，我认为您强调了IP新创造的要点，需要很多年才能看到最终产品。我认为如果你看看我们最近的游戏管道，我们已经宣布了40多个，我认为这是一个组合，对吗？有些是原创知识产权，需要很长时间来开发。有些实际上是现有的IP，我们将利用现有的资产，一个非常成熟的游戏，我们将添加我们的移动创新，然后我们开发它进行发布。（来自腾讯控股21年第一季度收益看涨期权）这解释了为什么游戏开发商在很长一段时间内“榨取”他们的顶级游戏。因此，我们不太确定SKLZ的新游戏的竞争力如何？顶级皇家战役开发者从他们的顶级游戏中获得巨额利润。他们在吸引新用户方面也没有问题。这些对他们来说是巨大的摇钱树。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb7c95181f23ec88b008de9cf325f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Garena quarterly active users (QAU). Data source: SE company filings<blockquote>Garena季度活跃用户(QAU)。数据来源：SE公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a0e48af16ee92effa7f115ca9a30870\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Garena Adjusted EBITDA margins. Data source: SE company filings<blockquote>Garena调整了EBITDA利润率。数据来源：SE公司备案</blockquote> Garena's QAU growth is in huge contrast to SKLZ's metrics. Garena grew its QAU by 11.8% QoQ. Its QAU also grew by 45.1% YoY. Garena is a hugely profitable segment for Sea Limited. The company reported a 72.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin for FQ2'21. They don't need to allocate that kind of massive SG&amp;A spends for Free Fire. Yet, users kept on joining the Free Fire platform.<blockquote>Garena的QAU增长与SKLZ的指标形成鲜明对比。Garena的QAU环比增长11.8%。其QAU也同比增长45.1%。Garena对于Sea Limited来说是一个利润丰厚的部门。该公司报告21年第二季度调整后EBITDA利润率为72.3%。他们不需要为自由射击分配那么大的SG&amp;A支出。然而，用户继续加入Free Fire平台。</blockquote> We applaud Skillz for its ambitious push into new gaming genres. However, we are just unsure whether it could be viable for the company to compete in these highly lucrative segments. These are typically segments dominated by the best gaming publishers or developers. These are nothing like Tether or Big Run that have been driving SKLZ's revenue.<blockquote>我们赞扬Skillz雄心勃勃地进军新游戏类型。然而，我们只是不确定该公司在这些利润丰厚的领域竞争是否可行。这些通常由最好的游戏发行商或开发商主导。这些与推动SKLZ收入的泰达币或Big Run完全不同。</blockquote> We think it's up to SKLZ to prove us wrong here.<blockquote>我们认为应该由SKLZ来证明我们是错的。</blockquote> Garena's QAU growth is in huge contrast to SKLZ's metrics. Garena grew its QAU by 11.8% QoQ. Its QAU also grew by 45.1% YoY. Garena is a hugely profitable segment for Sea Limited. The company reported a 72.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin for FQ2'21. They don't need to allocate that kind of massive SG&amp;A spends for Free Fire. Yet, users kept on joining the Free Fire platform.<blockquote>Garena的QAU增长与SKLZ的指标形成鲜明对比。Garena的QAU环比增长11.8%。其QAU也同比增长45.1%。Garena对于Sea Limited来说是一个利润丰厚的部门。该公司报告21年第二季度调整后EBITDA利润率为72.3%。他们不需要为自由射击分配那么大的SG&amp;A支出。然而，用户继续加入Free Fire平台。</blockquote> We applaud Skillz for its ambitious push into new gaming genres. However, we are just unsure whether it could be viable for the company to compete in these highly lucrative segments. These are typically segments dominated by the best gaming publishers or developers. These are nothing like Tether or Big Run that have been driving SKLZ's revenue.<blockquote>我们赞扬Skillz雄心勃勃地进军新游戏类型。然而，我们只是不确定该公司在这些利润丰厚的领域竞争是否可行。这些通常由最好的游戏发行商或开发商主导。这些与推动SKLZ收入的泰达币或Big Run完全不同。</blockquote> We think it's up to SKLZ to prove us wrong here.<blockquote>我们认为应该由SKLZ来证明我们是错的。</blockquote> So, is SKLZ Stock a Buy, or is It a Value Trap?<blockquote>那么，SKLZ股票是值得买入，还是价值陷阱？</blockquote> Skillz is estimated to grow its revenue by a CAGR of 25.1% by FY25. However, it's only expected to turn GAAP EBITDA profitable by FY24. We don't think the revenue CAGR is outstanding by most \"speculative stocks\" measures. It looks average, in fact.<blockquote>预计到2025财年，Skillz的收入将以25.1%的复合年增长率增长。然而，预计到2024财年，GAAP EBITDA才能实现盈利。我们认为，从大多数“投机股票”指标来看，收入复合年增长率并不出色。事实上，看起来很一般。</blockquote> Skillz is estimated to grow its revenue by a CAGR of 25.1% by FY25. However, it's only expected to turn GAAP EBITDA profitable by FY24. We don't think the revenue CAGR is outstanding by most \"speculative stocks\" measures. It looks average, in fact.<blockquote>预计到2025财年，Skillz的收入将以25.1%的复合年增长率增长。然而，预计到2024财年，GAAP EBITDA才能实现盈利。我们认为，从大多数“投机股票”指标来看，收入复合年增长率并不出色。事实上，看起来很一般。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ccaf8a9d02c3b657af6e2422970e0c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SKLZ stock EV/Fwd Revenue trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>SKLZ股票EV/Fwd收入趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> As mentioned, SKLZ stock falls within the speculative category of our portfolio. However, we are willing to give the company the benefit of the doubt to prove us wrong here. After all, it has shown that it could monetize its users well. The monetization strategies are clearly working.<blockquote>如前所述，SKLZ股票属于我们投资组合的投机类别。然而，我们愿意假定公司是无辜的，以证明我们在这里是错的。毕竟，它已经表明它可以很好地利用用户赚钱。货币化策略显然正在发挥作用。</blockquote> However, it is still not a cheap stock despite the -61.8% YTD performance. It's still valued at a premium against the slower-growth Electronic Arts(NASDAQ:EA). But, EA is much more profitable. Moreover, it's still expected to grow its revenue by 10.4% by FY25. Hence, it's not that slow either for its size. For some investors, SKLZ stock might still be too expensive for what it's worth. It is definitely not a stock for conservative investors or even value investors.<blockquote>然而，尽管年初至今的表现为-61.8%，但它仍然不是一只便宜的股票。与增长较慢的艺电（纳斯达克：EA）相比，它的估值仍然存在溢价。但是，艺电的利润要高得多。此外，预计到2025财年，其收入仍将增长10.4%。因此，就其尺寸而言，它也没有那么慢。对于一些投资者来说，SKLZ股票可能仍然太贵。它绝对不是一只适合保守投资者甚至价值投资者的股票。</blockquote> Notwithstanding, we are retaining our Buy rating on SKLZ stock for now. However, we would like to remind you that this stock might only be appropriate as a speculative stock in your portfolio.<blockquote>尽管如此，我们目前仍维持对SKLZ股票的买入评级。但是，我们想提醒您，这只股票可能只适合作为您投资组合中的投机股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Skillz Stock: Is It A Buy, Or Is It A Value Trap?<blockquote>Skillz股票：是买入，还是价值陷阱？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSkillz Stock: Is It A Buy, Or Is It A Value Trap?<blockquote>Skillz股票：是买入，还是价值陷阱？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-07 13:30\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Skillz is a mobile gaming technology platform. The company focuses on enabling monetization opportunities through competition.</li> <li>It has been spending heavily on user acquisition. It has managed to improve its paying MAU ratio. However, its falling total MAU base could be a concern.</li> <li>The stock still trades at a premium despite a -61.8% YTD performance. We address in this article whether the stock is worth adding for investors now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/419db089ba5af30b574a8474cfb9050a\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">cokada/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Skillz是一个移动游戏技术平台。该公司专注于通过竞争创造货币化机会。</li><li>它一直在用户获取上投入巨资。它已成功提高了付费月活跃用户数比率。然而，其总月活跃用户基数的下降可能是一个令人担忧的问题。</li><li>尽管年初至今表现为-61.8%，但该股的交易价格仍然溢价。我们在本文中讨论该股票现在是否值得投资者增持。</li></ul>cokada/E+来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ)is a mobile gaming technology platform. The company focuses on enabling monetization opportunities through competition. In contrast to other gaming platforms that monetize through in-app purchases [IAP] or in-app advertising [IAA]. The company believes that the business model of such platforms is \"broken.\" Furthermore, the company believes that the future of gaming is moving towards eSports. Hence, Skillz Inc. is on a mission to \"democratize gaming&nbsp;by leveling the playing field for access [to developers] to build esports.\"<blockquote>Skillz（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SKLZ）是一个移动游戏技术平台。该公司专注于通过竞争创造货币化机会。与其他通过应用内购买[IAP]或应用内广告[IAA]赚钱的游戏平台相比。该公司认为，此类平台的商业模式“被打破”。此外，该公司认为游戏的未来正在走向电子竞技。因此，Skillz Inc.的使命是“通过为（开发者）建立电子竞技创造公平的竞争环境来实现游戏民主化。”</blockquote> However,in our previous article, we explained that IAP and IAA are unlikely to be irrelevant anytime soon. Major game publishers continue to rely on these proven monetization models. We also showed that the majority of gamers are supportive of such models. Moreover, eSports is also not unique to SKLZ. Major game developers such as Garena(NYSE:SE)have also been leveraging on eSports. eSports allow game developers to build a highly engaged community of gamers.<blockquote>然而，在我们之前的文章中，我们解释过IAP和IAA不太可能在短期内不相关。主要游戏发行商继续依赖这些经过验证的货币化模式。我们还表明，大多数游戏玩家都支持这种模式。而且，电竞也不是SKLZ独有的。Garena（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）等主要游戏开发商也一直在利用电子竞技。电子竞技允许游戏开发者建立一个高度参与的游戏玩家社区。</blockquote> We continue to remain shareholders of SKLZ stock. However, the stock is down more than 20% from our initial buy price. In addition, we highlighted before that it's a speculative stock for our portfolio. Hence, the exposure is much smaller than our core holdings. Nevertheless, we have no qualms in continuing to hold it for the longer term.<blockquote>我们仍然是SKLZ股票的股东。然而，该股较我们最初的买入价格下跌了20%以上。此外，我们之前强调过，它是我们投资组合中的投机性股票。因此，风险敞口远小于我们的核心持股。然而，我们毫不犹豫地继续长期持有它。</blockquote> We will present our thesis on whether the stock's current weakness represents an opportunity for investors to add exposure.<blockquote>我们将就该股目前的疲软是否代表投资者增加投资的机会发表论文。</blockquote> SKLZ Stock YTD Performance<blockquote>SKLZ股票年初至今表现</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1845c53df3559cbde4c5840c38e760c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SKLZ Stock YTD performance (as of 5 Oct 21).<blockquote>SKLZ股票年初至今表现（截至21年10月5日）。</blockquote> Gaming stocks had a terrible year so far. SKLZ stock's YTD performance was the worst here. The stock returned -61.8% YTD. It had started so brightly as it raced close to a 100% YTD lead in February. Unfortunately, that momentum has turned bearish and wiped out all its gains within a month. Except for SE, gaming stocks have significantly underperformed the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY)in 2021.<blockquote>到目前为止，博彩股经历了糟糕的一年。SKLZ股票年初至今的表现是这里最差的。该股今年迄今的回报率为-61.8%。该公司开局非常出色，2月份年初至今的领先优势接近100%。不幸的是，这种势头已经转为看跌，并在一个月内抹去了所有涨幅。除SE外，博彩股在2021年的表现明显落后于SPDR标普500 ETF（NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF）。</blockquote> Skillz is Investing Aggressively for Growth<blockquote>Skillz正在积极投资以实现增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0638505559f43d708cf16af67fdc5ce4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Skillz gross margins and SG&amp;A margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Skillz毛利率和SG&amp;A利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845092c517937e2475c2dc9e3e993c9e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Skillz take rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Skillz采取率。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Skillz operates with an \"asset-light,\" low direct costs business model. It doesn't need to hire and retain expensively assembled developer teams. Instead, it's a platform for developers to build their games for monetization on Skillz's competition platform. Therefore, Skillz takes a commission from its net gross marketplace volume (GMV). The commission is defined as its take rate.<blockquote>Skillz采用“轻资产”、低直接成本的商业模式运营。它不需要雇佣和留住昂贵的开发团队。相反，它是开发者在Skillz的竞争平台上构建游戏以货币化的平台。因此，Skillz从其净市场总量(GMV)中收取佣金。佣金被定义为它的接受率。</blockquote> Skillz has maintained a consistent take rate over time. The company posted a take rate of 14.7% in FQ2'21. However, Skillz also highlighted that it could increase its take rate in the future to boost monetization. Such opportunities could arise if it could attract more paying users to its platform.<blockquote>随着时间的推移，Skillz一直保持着稳定的录取率。该公司21年第二季度的录取率为14.7%。然而，Skillz也强调，它可能会提高未来的采用率，以促进货币化。如果它能够吸引更多付费用户使用其平台，此类机会就可能出现。</blockquote> The company's gross profit is then derived from its take rate. So under its \"asset-light\" platform, it's not surprising that it has been reporting solid gross margins. The company has consistently reported gross margins of around 95%.<blockquote>然后，公司的毛利润从其接受率中得出。因此，在其“轻资产”平台下，其毛利率稳定也就不足为奇了。该公司的毛利率一直在95%左右。</blockquote> However, the main \"eyesore\" is its SG&amp;A margins. Its very high SG&amp;A margins are the main reason for its negative EBIT margins. Skillz CEO Andrew Paradise recently discussed the purpose of the company's aggressiveness in its SG&amp;A spending. He emphasized:<blockquote>然而，主要的“眼中钉”是其SG&amp;A利润率。其非常高的SG&amp;A利润率是其息税前利润率为负的主要原因。Skillz首席执行官Andrew Paradise最近讨论了该公司积极开展SG&amp;A支出的目的。他强调：</blockquote> Part of that is, as a reminder, our gross margin is 95% as a business. So we can be profitable today if we want to slow down our penetration of the massive market ahead of us. But when you think about our business, just like kind of thinking about Q2 of this year, our adjusted EBITDA margin before user acquisition was actually 17%. We just -- we believe that capturing the now $2.8 billion gamer opportunity in front of us by investing in growth with this discipline of understanding these paybacks, carefully monitoring cohort performance.(from Citi 2021 Global Technology Virtual Conference) Therefore, Paradise believes that SKLZ still has a massive opportunity to capture the growth in mobile gaming. Coupled with its eSports appeal, the company is definitely operating in a fast-growing market.<blockquote>提醒一下，其中一部分是，作为一家企业，我们的毛利率为95%。因此，如果我们想放慢对前面巨大市场的渗透速度，我们今天就可以盈利。但当你思考我们的业务时，就像思考今年第二季度一样，我们在用户获取前调整后的EBITDA利润率实际上为17%。我们只是——我们相信，通过投资增长，了解这些回报，仔细监控群体表现，抓住我们面前现在价值28亿美元的游戏玩家机会。（摘自花旗2021年全球科技虚拟大会）因此，Paradise认为SKLZ仍有巨大的机会抓住移动游戏的增长。再加上其电子竞技吸引力，该公司无疑是在一个快速增长的市场中运营。</blockquote> The important question facing investors is whether its aggressiveness makes sense. SG&amp;A margins above 140% are very costly to sustain. Importantly, SKLZ has a relatively healthy cash hoard of $693M, with no debt. Hence, the company is in a good financial position to conduct its aggressive user acquisition (UA) strategy.<blockquote>投资者面临的重要问题是，其激进主义是否有意义。SG&amp;A利润率高于140%的维持成本非常高。重要的是，SKLZ拥有相对健康的现金储备，为6.93亿美元，没有债务。因此，该公司处于良好的财务状况，可以实施其积极的用户获取（UA）战略。</blockquote> Moreover, the Aarki acquisition is also expected to help Skillz optimize its UA costs. The company highlighted that it expects to migrate about $200M in UA spending to Aarki this year. It's a sizeable amount as the company expended about $250M in SG&amp;A expenses in H1'21. The migrated spending would allow Aarki to optimize about $40M to $60M in UA costs. However, Skillz has also telegraphed that cost optimization would take time. The optimization process might take up to 24 months to complete. Therefore, the operational efficiencies from the migration to Aarki would take some time to show up.<blockquote>此外，收购Aarki也有望帮助Skillz优化其UA成本。该公司强调，预计今年将约2亿美元的UA支出转移到Aarki。这是一个相当大的数额，因为该公司在21年上半年花费了约2.5亿美元的SG&amp;A费用。迁移后的支出将使Aarki优化约4000万至6000万美元的UA成本。然而，Skillz也表示，成本优化需要时间。优化过程可能需要长达24个月才能完成。因此，迁移到Aarki的运营效率需要一段时间才能显现出来。</blockquote> But, Monthly Active Users are Falling<blockquote>但是，月活跃用户正在下降</blockquote> The company reported monthly active users (MAU) of 2.4M in FQ2'21. It followed a recent declining trend. In FQ1'21, the MAU was 2.7M. Hence, there was a marked 11.1% quarter-over-quarter ((QoQ)) drop. Moreover, YoY figures hardly changed. The company reported MAU of 2.6M in FQ1'20. It also reported MAU of 2.5M in Q2'20. Therefore, readers can easily glean that Skillz has difficulty attracting more MAU to its platform. As a result, the company might need to continue spending aggressively to maintain its MAU.<blockquote>该公司报告21年第二季度的月活跃用户(MAU)为240万。它遵循了最近的下降趋势。21年第一季度，月活跃用户数为270万。因此，环比下降了11.1%。此外，同比数据几乎没有变化。该公司报告20年第一季度的月活跃用户数为260万。该公司还报告称，20年第二季度的月活跃用户数为250万。因此，读者可以很容易地收集到Skillz很难吸引更多的MAU到其平台。因此，本公司可能需要继续大幅开支以维持其MAU。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a05cb47d9038c2fb7d912874c03a442\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"482\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Skillz Paying MAU. Source: Skillz<blockquote>斯基尔兹付钱给毛。资料来源：Skillz</blockquote> Of course, the focus of the company has always been on its Paying MAU. Paying MAU accounted for 19.3% of its total MAU base in FQ2'21. It was an improvement over FQ1'21's 17.3%. It shows that the company has been able to improve its user monetization ratio. It's also a significant improvement over FQ2'20's 12% ratio. From this perspective, it shows that the company's aggressive UA efforts seem to be making progress. Notwithstanding, we think it's still necessary for Skillz to address its declining trend of MAU. The company could certainly address the short-term gaps with improved monetization metrics. At the moment, we don't see anything amiss. But, it would likely get increasingly harder to monetize a falling MAU base.<blockquote>当然，该公司的重点一直是其付费MAU。21年第二季度，付费MAU占其总MAU基数的19.3%。这比21年第一季度的17.3%有所改善。说明公司已经能够提高用户变现率。这也比20年第二季度12%的比率有了显着改善。从这个角度来看，这表明该公司积极的UA努力似乎正在取得进展。尽管如此，我们认为Skillz仍然有必要解决MAU下降的趋势。该公司当然可以通过改进货币化指标来解决短期差距。目前，我们没有看到任何问题。但是，将不断下降的月活跃用户基数货币化可能会变得越来越困难。</blockquote> Would Venturing into Synchronous Gaming Be The Solution?<blockquote>冒险进入同步游戏会是解决方案吗？</blockquote> Skillz upped the ante by investing in Exit Games to accelerate its synchronous gaming ambitions. The most prominent genre is battle royale games. Such games include Fortnite, Garena Free Fire (SE), and PUBG Mobile(OTCPK:TCEHY). These are the most dominant mobile games in the battle royale genre today.SensorTower's Q3'21 revenue data&nbsp;shows PUBG Mobile and Garena Free Fire are the #1 and #8 games worldwide. However, it's important to note that game development has a long lead time.<blockquote>Skillz通过投资退出游戏加大了赌注，以加速其同步游戏的雄心。最突出的类型是皇家战役游戏。此类游戏包括Fortnite、Garena Free Fire(SE)和PUBG Mobile(OTCPK：TCEHY)。这些是当今皇家战役类型中最具主导地位的手机游戏。SensorTower的21年第三季度收入数据显示，PUBG Mobile和Garena Free Fire是全球排名第一和第八的游戏。然而，需要注意的是，游戏开发有很长的准备时间。</blockquote> Worldwide gaming leader Tencent clearly emphasized the challenge in developing \"original IPs.\" Tencent emphasized:<blockquote>全球游戏领导者腾讯控股明确强调了开发“原创IP”的挑战。腾讯控股强调：</blockquote> Just one point to add, right. On the gaming side, I think you emphasized [the] point [of] new creation of IPs and true, is many years before you can see final product.I think if you look at our recent pipeline of games, which we have announced of more than 40 of them, I think it's a combination, right? Some are original IPs, which would take a very long time to develop.Some are actually existing IPs that we're going to take existing assets, a pretty proven game play, and we will add our innovation for mobile, and then we developed it for launch. (from Tencent FQ1'21 earnings call) It explains why game developers \"milk\" their top titles for a significant amount of time. Hence, we are not so sure how competitive would SKLZ's new gaming titles be? Top battle royale developers derive huge profits from their top titles. They also have no problems attracting new users. These are massive cash cows for them.<blockquote>只需补充一点，对吧。在游戏方面，我认为您强调了IP新创造的要点，需要很多年才能看到最终产品。我认为如果你看看我们最近的游戏管道，我们已经宣布了40多个，我认为这是一个组合，对吗？有些是原创知识产权，需要很长时间来开发。有些实际上是现有的IP，我们将利用现有的资产，一个非常成熟的游戏，我们将添加我们的移动创新，然后我们开发它进行发布。（来自腾讯控股21年第一季度收益看涨期权）这解释了为什么游戏开发商在很长一段时间内“榨取”他们的顶级游戏。因此，我们不太确定SKLZ的新游戏的竞争力如何？顶级皇家战役开发者从他们的顶级游戏中获得巨额利润。他们在吸引新用户方面也没有问题。这些对他们来说是巨大的摇钱树。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb7c95181f23ec88b008de9cf325f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Garena quarterly active users (QAU). Data source: SE company filings<blockquote>Garena季度活跃用户(QAU)。数据来源：SE公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a0e48af16ee92effa7f115ca9a30870\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Garena Adjusted EBITDA margins. Data source: SE company filings<blockquote>Garena调整了EBITDA利润率。数据来源：SE公司备案</blockquote> Garena's QAU growth is in huge contrast to SKLZ's metrics. Garena grew its QAU by 11.8% QoQ. Its QAU also grew by 45.1% YoY. Garena is a hugely profitable segment for Sea Limited. The company reported a 72.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin for FQ2'21. They don't need to allocate that kind of massive SG&amp;A spends for Free Fire. Yet, users kept on joining the Free Fire platform.<blockquote>Garena的QAU增长与SKLZ的指标形成鲜明对比。Garena的QAU环比增长11.8%。其QAU也同比增长45.1%。Garena对于Sea Limited来说是一个利润丰厚的部门。该公司报告21年第二季度调整后EBITDA利润率为72.3%。他们不需要为自由射击分配那么大的SG&amp;A支出。然而，用户继续加入Free Fire平台。</blockquote> We applaud Skillz for its ambitious push into new gaming genres. However, we are just unsure whether it could be viable for the company to compete in these highly lucrative segments. These are typically segments dominated by the best gaming publishers or developers. These are nothing like Tether or Big Run that have been driving SKLZ's revenue.<blockquote>我们赞扬Skillz雄心勃勃地进军新游戏类型。然而，我们只是不确定该公司在这些利润丰厚的领域竞争是否可行。这些通常由最好的游戏发行商或开发商主导。这些与推动SKLZ收入的泰达币或Big Run完全不同。</blockquote> We think it's up to SKLZ to prove us wrong here.<blockquote>我们认为应该由SKLZ来证明我们是错的。</blockquote> Garena's QAU growth is in huge contrast to SKLZ's metrics. Garena grew its QAU by 11.8% QoQ. Its QAU also grew by 45.1% YoY. Garena is a hugely profitable segment for Sea Limited. The company reported a 72.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin for FQ2'21. They don't need to allocate that kind of massive SG&amp;A spends for Free Fire. Yet, users kept on joining the Free Fire platform.<blockquote>Garena的QAU增长与SKLZ的指标形成鲜明对比。Garena的QAU环比增长11.8%。其QAU也同比增长45.1%。Garena对于Sea Limited来说是一个利润丰厚的部门。该公司报告21年第二季度调整后EBITDA利润率为72.3%。他们不需要为自由射击分配那么大的SG&amp;A支出。然而，用户继续加入Free Fire平台。</blockquote> We applaud Skillz for its ambitious push into new gaming genres. However, we are just unsure whether it could be viable for the company to compete in these highly lucrative segments. These are typically segments dominated by the best gaming publishers or developers. These are nothing like Tether or Big Run that have been driving SKLZ's revenue.<blockquote>我们赞扬Skillz雄心勃勃地进军新游戏类型。然而，我们只是不确定该公司在这些利润丰厚的领域竞争是否可行。这些通常由最好的游戏发行商或开发商主导。这些与推动SKLZ收入的泰达币或Big Run完全不同。</blockquote> We think it's up to SKLZ to prove us wrong here.<blockquote>我们认为应该由SKLZ来证明我们是错的。</blockquote> So, is SKLZ Stock a Buy, or is It a Value Trap?<blockquote>那么，SKLZ股票是值得买入，还是价值陷阱？</blockquote> Skillz is estimated to grow its revenue by a CAGR of 25.1% by FY25. However, it's only expected to turn GAAP EBITDA profitable by FY24. We don't think the revenue CAGR is outstanding by most \"speculative stocks\" measures. It looks average, in fact.<blockquote>预计到2025财年，Skillz的收入将以25.1%的复合年增长率增长。然而，预计到2024财年，GAAP EBITDA才能实现盈利。我们认为，从大多数“投机股票”指标来看，收入复合年增长率并不出色。事实上，看起来很一般。</blockquote> Skillz is estimated to grow its revenue by a CAGR of 25.1% by FY25. However, it's only expected to turn GAAP EBITDA profitable by FY24. We don't think the revenue CAGR is outstanding by most \"speculative stocks\" measures. It looks average, in fact.<blockquote>预计到2025财年，Skillz的收入将以25.1%的复合年增长率增长。然而，预计到2024财年，GAAP EBITDA才能实现盈利。我们认为，从大多数“投机股票”指标来看，收入复合年增长率并不出色。事实上，看起来很一般。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ccaf8a9d02c3b657af6e2422970e0c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SKLZ stock EV/Fwd Revenue trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>SKLZ股票EV/Fwd收入趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> As mentioned, SKLZ stock falls within the speculative category of our portfolio. However, we are willing to give the company the benefit of the doubt to prove us wrong here. After all, it has shown that it could monetize its users well. The monetization strategies are clearly working.<blockquote>如前所述，SKLZ股票属于我们投资组合的投机类别。然而，我们愿意假定公司是无辜的，以证明我们在这里是错的。毕竟，它已经表明它可以很好地利用用户赚钱。货币化策略显然正在发挥作用。</blockquote> However, it is still not a cheap stock despite the -61.8% YTD performance. It's still valued at a premium against the slower-growth Electronic Arts(NASDAQ:EA). But, EA is much more profitable. Moreover, it's still expected to grow its revenue by 10.4% by FY25. Hence, it's not that slow either for its size. For some investors, SKLZ stock might still be too expensive for what it's worth. It is definitely not a stock for conservative investors or even value investors.<blockquote>然而，尽管年初至今的表现为-61.8%，但它仍然不是一只便宜的股票。与增长较慢的艺电（纳斯达克：EA）相比，它的估值仍然存在溢价。但是，艺电的利润要高得多。此外，预计到2025财年，其收入仍将增长10.4%。因此，就其尺寸而言，它也没有那么慢。对于一些投资者来说，SKLZ股票可能仍然太贵。它绝对不是一只适合保守投资者甚至价值投资者的股票。</blockquote> Notwithstanding, we are retaining our Buy rating on SKLZ stock for now. However, we would like to remind you that this stock might only be appropriate as a speculative stock in your portfolio.<blockquote>尽管如此，我们目前仍维持对SKLZ股票的买入评级。但是，我们想提醒您，这只股票可能只适合作为您投资组合中的投机股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458690-skillz-stock-is-it-a-buy-or-is-it-a-value-trap\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SKLZ":"Skillz Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458690-skillz-stock-is-it-a-buy-or-is-it-a-value-trap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118519462","content_text":"Summary\n\nSkillz is a mobile gaming technology platform. The company focuses on enabling monetization opportunities through competition.\nIt has been spending heavily on user acquisition. It has managed to improve its paying MAU ratio. However, its falling total MAU base could be a concern.\nThe stock still trades at a premium despite a -61.8% YTD performance. We address in this article whether the stock is worth adding for investors now.\n\ncokada/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nSkillz(NYSE:SKLZ)is a mobile gaming technology platform. The company focuses on enabling monetization opportunities through competition. In contrast to other gaming platforms that monetize through in-app purchases [IAP] or in-app advertising [IAA]. The company believes that the business model of such platforms is \"broken.\" Furthermore, the company believes that the future of gaming is moving towards eSports. Hence, Skillz Inc. is on a mission to \"democratize gaming by leveling the playing field for access [to developers] to build esports.\"\nHowever,in our previous article, we explained that IAP and IAA are unlikely to be irrelevant anytime soon. Major game publishers continue to rely on these proven monetization models. We also showed that the majority of gamers are supportive of such models. Moreover, eSports is also not unique to SKLZ. Major game developers such as Garena(NYSE:SE)have also been leveraging on eSports. eSports allow game developers to build a highly engaged community of gamers.\nWe continue to remain shareholders of SKLZ stock. However, the stock is down more than 20% from our initial buy price. In addition, we highlighted before that it's a speculative stock for our portfolio. Hence, the exposure is much smaller than our core holdings. Nevertheless, we have no qualms in continuing to hold it for the longer term.\nWe will present our thesis on whether the stock's current weakness represents an opportunity for investors to add exposure.\nSKLZ Stock YTD Performance\nSKLZ Stock YTD performance (as of 5 Oct 21).\nGaming stocks had a terrible year so far. SKLZ stock's YTD performance was the worst here. The stock returned -61.8% YTD. It had started so brightly as it raced close to a 100% YTD lead in February. Unfortunately, that momentum has turned bearish and wiped out all its gains within a month. Except for SE, gaming stocks have significantly underperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY)in 2021.\nSkillz is Investing Aggressively for Growth\nSkillz gross margins and SG&A margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSkillz take rate. Data source: Company filings\nSkillz operates with an \"asset-light,\" low direct costs business model. It doesn't need to hire and retain expensively assembled developer teams. Instead, it's a platform for developers to build their games for monetization on Skillz's competition platform. Therefore, Skillz takes a commission from its net gross marketplace volume (GMV). The commission is defined as its take rate.\nSkillz has maintained a consistent take rate over time. The company posted a take rate of 14.7% in FQ2'21. However, Skillz also highlighted that it could increase its take rate in the future to boost monetization. Such opportunities could arise if it could attract more paying users to its platform.\nThe company's gross profit is then derived from its take rate. So under its \"asset-light\" platform, it's not surprising that it has been reporting solid gross margins. The company has consistently reported gross margins of around 95%.\nHowever, the main \"eyesore\" is its SG&A margins. Its very high SG&A margins are the main reason for its negative EBIT margins. Skillz CEO Andrew Paradise recently discussed the purpose of the company's aggressiveness in its SG&A spending. He emphasized:\n\n Part of that is, as a reminder, our gross margin is 95% as a business. So we can be profitable today if we want to slow down our penetration of the massive market ahead of us. But when you think about our business, just like kind of thinking about Q2 of this year, our adjusted EBITDA margin before user acquisition was actually 17%.\n We just -- we believe that capturing the now $2.8 billion gamer opportunity in front of us by investing in growth with this discipline of understanding these paybacks, carefully monitoring cohort performance.(from Citi 2021 Global Technology Virtual Conference)\n\nTherefore, Paradise believes that SKLZ still has a massive opportunity to capture the growth in mobile gaming. Coupled with its eSports appeal, the company is definitely operating in a fast-growing market.\nThe important question facing investors is whether its aggressiveness makes sense. SG&A margins above 140% are very costly to sustain. Importantly, SKLZ has a relatively healthy cash hoard of $693M, with no debt. Hence, the company is in a good financial position to conduct its aggressive user acquisition (UA) strategy.\nMoreover, the Aarki acquisition is also expected to help Skillz optimize its UA costs. The company highlighted that it expects to migrate about $200M in UA spending to Aarki this year. It's a sizeable amount as the company expended about $250M in SG&A expenses in H1'21. The migrated spending would allow Aarki to optimize about $40M to $60M in UA costs. However, Skillz has also telegraphed that cost optimization would take time. The optimization process might take up to 24 months to complete. Therefore, the operational efficiencies from the migration to Aarki would take some time to show up.\nBut, Monthly Active Users are Falling\nThe company reported monthly active users (MAU) of 2.4M in FQ2'21. It followed a recent declining trend. In FQ1'21, the MAU was 2.7M. Hence, there was a marked 11.1% quarter-over-quarter ((QoQ)) drop. Moreover, YoY figures hardly changed. The company reported MAU of 2.6M in FQ1'20. It also reported MAU of 2.5M in Q2'20. Therefore, readers can easily glean that Skillz has difficulty attracting more MAU to its platform. As a result, the company might need to continue spending aggressively to maintain its MAU.\nSkillz Paying MAU. Source: Skillz\nOf course, the focus of the company has always been on its Paying MAU. Paying MAU accounted for 19.3% of its total MAU base in FQ2'21. It was an improvement over FQ1'21's 17.3%. It shows that the company has been able to improve its user monetization ratio. It's also a significant improvement over FQ2'20's 12% ratio. From this perspective, it shows that the company's aggressive UA efforts seem to be making progress. Notwithstanding, we think it's still necessary for Skillz to address its declining trend of MAU. The company could certainly address the short-term gaps with improved monetization metrics. At the moment, we don't see anything amiss. But, it would likely get increasingly harder to monetize a falling MAU base.\nWould Venturing into Synchronous Gaming Be The Solution?\nSkillz upped the ante by investing in Exit Games to accelerate its synchronous gaming ambitions. The most prominent genre is battle royale games. Such games include Fortnite, Garena Free Fire (SE), and PUBG Mobile(OTCPK:TCEHY). These are the most dominant mobile games in the battle royale genre today.SensorTower's Q3'21 revenue data shows PUBG Mobile and Garena Free Fire are the #1 and #8 games worldwide. However, it's important to note that game development has a long lead time.\nWorldwide gaming leader Tencent clearly emphasized the challenge in developing \"original IPs.\" Tencent emphasized:\n\n Just one point to add, right. On the gaming side, I think you emphasized [the] point [of] new creation of IPs and true,\n is many years before you can see final product.I think if you look at our recent pipeline of games, which we have announced of more than 40 of them, I think it's a combination, right?\n Some are original IPs, which would take a very long time to develop.Some are actually existing IPs that we're going to take existing assets, a pretty proven game play, and we will add our innovation for mobile, and then we developed it for launch. (from Tencent FQ1'21 earnings call)\n\nIt explains why game developers \"milk\" their top titles for a significant amount of time. Hence, we are not so sure how competitive would SKLZ's new gaming titles be? Top battle royale developers derive huge profits from their top titles. They also have no problems attracting new users. These are massive cash cows for them.\nGarena quarterly active users (QAU). Data source: SE company filings\nGarena Adjusted EBITDA margins. Data source: SE company filings\nGarena's QAU growth is in huge contrast to SKLZ's metrics. Garena grew its QAU by 11.8% QoQ. Its QAU also grew by 45.1% YoY. Garena is a hugely profitable segment for Sea Limited. The company reported a 72.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin for FQ2'21. They don't need to allocate that kind of massive SG&A spends for Free Fire. Yet, users kept on joining the Free Fire platform.\nWe applaud Skillz for its ambitious push into new gaming genres. However, we are just unsure whether it could be viable for the company to compete in these highly lucrative segments. These are typically segments dominated by the best gaming publishers or developers. These are nothing like Tether or Big Run that have been driving SKLZ's revenue.\nWe think it's up to SKLZ to prove us wrong here.\nGarena's QAU growth is in huge contrast to SKLZ's metrics. Garena grew its QAU by 11.8% QoQ. Its QAU also grew by 45.1% YoY. Garena is a hugely profitable segment for Sea Limited. The company reported a 72.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin for FQ2'21. They don't need to allocate that kind of massive SG&A spends for Free Fire. Yet, users kept on joining the Free Fire platform.\nWe applaud Skillz for its ambitious push into new gaming genres. However, we are just unsure whether it could be viable for the company to compete in these highly lucrative segments. These are typically segments dominated by the best gaming publishers or developers. These are nothing like Tether or Big Run that have been driving SKLZ's revenue.\nWe think it's up to SKLZ to prove us wrong here.\nSo, is SKLZ Stock a Buy, or is It a Value Trap?\nSkillz is estimated to grow its revenue by a CAGR of 25.1% by FY25. However, it's only expected to turn GAAP EBITDA profitable by FY24. We don't think the revenue CAGR is outstanding by most \"speculative stocks\" measures. It looks average, in fact.\nSkillz is estimated to grow its revenue by a CAGR of 25.1% by FY25. However, it's only expected to turn GAAP EBITDA profitable by FY24. We don't think the revenue CAGR is outstanding by most \"speculative stocks\" measures. It looks average, in fact.\nSKLZ stock EV/Fwd Revenue trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nAs mentioned, SKLZ stock falls within the speculative category of our portfolio. However, we are willing to give the company the benefit of the doubt to prove us wrong here. After all, it has shown that it could monetize its users well. The monetization strategies are clearly working.\nHowever, it is still not a cheap stock despite the -61.8% YTD performance. It's still valued at a premium against the slower-growth Electronic Arts(NASDAQ:EA). But, EA is much more profitable. Moreover, it's still expected to grow its revenue by 10.4% by FY25. Hence, it's not that slow either for its size. For some investors, SKLZ stock might still be too expensive for what it's worth. It is definitely not a stock for conservative investors or even value investors.\nNotwithstanding, we are retaining our Buy rating on SKLZ stock for now. However, we would like to remind you that this stock might only be appropriate as a speculative stock in your portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SKLZ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1931,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}