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2021-10-14

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How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season

At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analys

How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season

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Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.\nThe economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.\nWhat is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.\nAfter 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put&nbsp;might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.\nThe good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.\nThere are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.\nJohn Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).\nMeanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.\nThe elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.\nTo trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.\nGoldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes&nbsp;Starbucks&nbsp;(ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources&nbsp;(CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy&nbsp;(CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank&nbsp;(SBNY),Align Technology&nbsp;(ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings&nbsp;(MRVI),Fortune Brands Home &amp; Security&nbsp;(FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group&nbsp;(SHLS),CF Industries&nbsp;(CF),Okta&nbsp;(OKTA),Playtika Holding&nbsp;(PLTK), and&nbsp;Republic Services&nbsp;(RSG).\nAt a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-14 16:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST>Barrons</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nAt the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTK":"Playtika Holding Corp.","CNQ":"加国自然资源","YETI":"YETI Holdings Inc.","RSG":"共和废品处理","CVE":"Cenovus能源",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ALGN":"艾利科技","OKTA":"Okta Inc.","SHLS":"Shoals Technologies Group","SBUX":"星巴克","CF":"CF工业","MRVI":"Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.","SBNY":"签字银行","CG":"凯雷",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161146997","content_text":"At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.\nThe cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.\nThe economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.\nWhat is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.\nAfter 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.\nThe good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.\nThere are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The S&P 500 index is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.\nJohn Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).\nMeanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.\nThe elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.\nTo trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.\nGoldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes Starbucks (ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy (CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank (SBNY),Align Technology (ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings (MRVI),Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS),CF Industries (CF),Okta (OKTA),Playtika Holding (PLTK), and Republic Services (RSG).\nAt a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":97,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}