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2021-09-23

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Whether It’s Fundamentals or Technicals, ContextLogic Stock Looks Scary

Either way, a big drop for WISH stock confirms its precariousness. There’s much aboutContextLogic(N

Whether It’s Fundamentals or Technicals, ContextLogic Stock Looks Scary

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So, just on the favorable winds of the greater fool theory, WISH stock has upside potential.\nThe question is, what’s the probability of said potential?\nIf you askInvestorPlacecontributor Dana Blankenhorn, the answer is apparently not much. He bluntly stated that WISH stock is “overvalued” and “possibly full of hot air,” descriptors that typically don’t materialize if one felt confident about a particular opportunity. Specifically, Blankenhorn states that relative to revenue, ContextLogic is selling at 50% more than the top line.\nIn his view, that’s not acceptable because the company is not growing on the bottom line — quite the opposite. To have that kind of a premium, a prospective buyer would need to see serious justification. So far, WISH stock hasn’t delivered; hence, my colleague’s hot air reference. Essentially, that’s what you’re buying in absence of a credible narrative.\nHowever, others take a differing view. For instance,Benzingacontributor Melanie Schaffer implied that you could gamble on ContextLogic shares on the long side of the equation, noting recently that WISH appeared to be charting “adouble bottom patterncreated on Aug. 19 and Sept. 15,” which has bullish implications.\nOf course, the backdrop didn’t quite turn out that way. As you’ve undoubtedly heard, fears have mounted that real-estate developerChina Evergrande Group(OTCMKTS:EGRNF) “might not pay its bonds this month,” perThe Wall Street Journal. That triggered a wave of selloffs in companies tied to China’s property market, includingBlackRock(NYSE:BLK).\nBut ContextLogic took a massive hit along with the rest of the market earlier this week, shedding over 7%. This raises concerns about its forward viability.\nWISH Stock Wages a Two-Front Battle\nWhile it’s possible that WISH stock could jump higher from here, I think it’s always significant when a stock betrays the implications of a well-established technical pattern. You’ll notice that technical analysts never guarantee a price move but instead talk in terms of if-then probabilities.\nIn this case, WISH stock will likely jump higherifthe double-bottom pattern holds. But if it doesn’t hold, investors need to go back to the drawing board and assess whether the core of the original thesis applies.\nThe questions from the technical element segues into the fundamental aspect. Per ContextLogic’s10-Q filed last month, “China accounted for substantially all of marketplace and logistics revenue during the three and six months ended June 30, 2021 and 2020 based on the location of the merchants’ operations.”\nBasically, ContextLogic’s success depends on a healthy and robust Chinese consumer economy. Therefore, the Evergrande news isn’t what the doctor ordered.\nThen again, how much of ContextLogic’s business is truly tied to what’s going on with China’s property market? I get that major economic news from that nation will impact its citizenry’s sentiment and spending behaviors. But at the end of the day, we’re talking about an e-commerce platform facilitating transactions between buyers and sellers. So, there should be some insulation from the Evergrande headwind.\nOn the day of the WSJ report above, Evergrande shares tanked 18.3%. So WISH stock losing 7.2% is a massive deal, meaning that it suffered 39% of the volatility of the shares that started the fallout.\nThat seems a bit harsh, which leads me to suspect that WISH stock isn’t really trading on the fundamentals but rather speculation. There’s nothing wrong with that, per se, but it does lead to circumstances like this, where stakeholders dump on fears that may be only loosely related to the target asset.\nTime To Run To the Sidelines\nFrom where I stand, I’m almost certain there will be some kind of bounce back. But unless you’re a risk-tolerant speculator, you might want to hit the sidelines.\nCertainly, a harsh impact to China will hurt ContextLogic. But the idea that the country’s property market woes are devastating WISH shares raises a question: Are people trading on the substance of the matter or are they just reacting emotionally to fearful news?\nBut the kicker is that even if ContextLogic is legitimately tied to China’s property market, that’s not a comforting thought because the Evergrande issue seems very serious from a bird’s eye view.\nWith this new information — along with WISH’s inability to hold true to its bullish technical pattern — I’m seeing very little reason to risk capital here other than for a dangerous play on a dead-cat bounce.","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Whether It’s Fundamentals or Technicals, ContextLogic Stock Looks Scary</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhether It’s Fundamentals or Technicals, ContextLogic Stock Looks Scary\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-23 19:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/09/fundamentally-or-technically-wish-stock-looks-scary/>InvestorPlace</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nEither way, a big drop for WISH stock confirms its precariousness.\n\nThere’s much aboutContextLogic(NASDAQ:WISH) that doesn’t inspire much confidence, it’s also fair to point out that enthusiasm for ...\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/fundamentally-or-technically-wish-stock-looks-scary/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/fundamentally-or-technically-wish-stock-looks-scary/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148896742","content_text":"Either way, a big drop for WISH stock confirms its precariousness.\n\nThere’s much aboutContextLogic(NASDAQ:WISH) that doesn’t inspire much confidence, it’s also fair to point out that enthusiasm for the e-commerce marketplace is quite strong. So, just on the favorable winds of the greater fool theory, WISH stock has upside potential.\nThe question is, what’s the probability of said potential?\nIf you askInvestorPlacecontributor Dana Blankenhorn, the answer is apparently not much. He bluntly stated that WISH stock is “overvalued” and “possibly full of hot air,” descriptors that typically don’t materialize if one felt confident about a particular opportunity. Specifically, Blankenhorn states that relative to revenue, ContextLogic is selling at 50% more than the top line.\nIn his view, that’s not acceptable because the company is not growing on the bottom line — quite the opposite. To have that kind of a premium, a prospective buyer would need to see serious justification. So far, WISH stock hasn’t delivered; hence, my colleague’s hot air reference. Essentially, that’s what you’re buying in absence of a credible narrative.\nHowever, others take a differing view. For instance,Benzingacontributor Melanie Schaffer implied that you could gamble on ContextLogic shares on the long side of the equation, noting recently that WISH appeared to be charting “adouble bottom patterncreated on Aug. 19 and Sept. 15,” which has bullish implications.\nOf course, the backdrop didn’t quite turn out that way. As you’ve undoubtedly heard, fears have mounted that real-estate developerChina Evergrande Group(OTCMKTS:EGRNF) “might not pay its bonds this month,” perThe Wall Street Journal. That triggered a wave of selloffs in companies tied to China’s property market, includingBlackRock(NYSE:BLK).\nBut ContextLogic took a massive hit along with the rest of the market earlier this week, shedding over 7%. This raises concerns about its forward viability.\nWISH Stock Wages a Two-Front Battle\nWhile it’s possible that WISH stock could jump higher from here, I think it’s always significant when a stock betrays the implications of a well-established technical pattern. You’ll notice that technical analysts never guarantee a price move but instead talk in terms of if-then probabilities.\nIn this case, WISH stock will likely jump higherifthe double-bottom pattern holds. But if it doesn’t hold, investors need to go back to the drawing board and assess whether the core of the original thesis applies.\nThe questions from the technical element segues into the fundamental aspect. Per ContextLogic’s10-Q filed last month, “China accounted for substantially all of marketplace and logistics revenue during the three and six months ended June 30, 2021 and 2020 based on the location of the merchants’ operations.”\nBasically, ContextLogic’s success depends on a healthy and robust Chinese consumer economy. Therefore, the Evergrande news isn’t what the doctor ordered.\nThen again, how much of ContextLogic’s business is truly tied to what’s going on with China’s property market? I get that major economic news from that nation will impact its citizenry’s sentiment and spending behaviors. But at the end of the day, we’re talking about an e-commerce platform facilitating transactions between buyers and sellers. So, there should be some insulation from the Evergrande headwind.\nOn the day of the WSJ report above, Evergrande shares tanked 18.3%. So WISH stock losing 7.2% is a massive deal, meaning that it suffered 39% of the volatility of the shares that started the fallout.\nThat seems a bit harsh, which leads me to suspect that WISH stock isn’t really trading on the fundamentals but rather speculation. There’s nothing wrong with that, per se, but it does lead to circumstances like this, where stakeholders dump on fears that may be only loosely related to the target asset.\nTime To Run To the Sidelines\nFrom where I stand, I’m almost certain there will be some kind of bounce back. But unless you’re a risk-tolerant speculator, you might want to hit the sidelines.\nCertainly, a harsh impact to China will hurt ContextLogic. But the idea that the country’s property market woes are devastating WISH shares raises a question: Are people trading on the substance of the matter or are they just reacting emotionally to fearful news?\nBut the kicker is that even if ContextLogic is legitimately tied to China’s property market, that’s not a comforting thought because the Evergrande issue seems very serious from a bird’s eye view.\nWith this new information — along with WISH’s inability to hold true to its bullish technical pattern — I’m seeing very little reason to risk capital here other than for a dangerous play on a dead-cat bounce.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Whether It’s Fundamentals or Technicals, ContextLogic Stock Looks Scary

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