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Jamessss
2021-09-07

Thinking Of Buying Coca-Cola? Think Again<blockquote>想买可口可乐吗？再想想</blockquote>

Summary KO looks like it wants to break out. But I'm skeptical right now given a number of fundamen

Thinking Of Buying Coca-Cola? Think Again<blockquote>想买可口可乐吗？再想想</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":880027823,"tweetId":"880027823","gmtCreate":1631002510662,"gmtModify":1631890785891,"author":{"id":3576734182904550,"idStr":"3576734182904550","authorId":3576734182904550,"authorIdStr":"3576734182904550","name":"Jamessss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c712eae8eccf0013cc7d0e594915c60","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>J</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>J</body></html>","text":"J","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880027823","repostId":1167423848,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167423848","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631000207,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167423848?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Thinking Of Buying Coca-Cola? Think Again<blockquote>想买可口可乐吗？再想想</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167423848","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nKO looks like it wants to break out.\nBut I'm skeptical right now given a number of fundamen","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>KO looks like it wants to break out.</li> <li>But I'm skeptical right now given a number of fundamental headwinds.</li> <li>With the valuation stretched, avoid KO.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebefc82af0f236beb1dcd9de3c554471\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>KO看起来想要爆发。</li><li>但鉴于一些基本阻力，我现在持怀疑态度。</li><li>估值捉襟见肘，避免KO。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Beverage companies are not always the most glamorous stocks to buy, but over time, they tend to do well. Steady demand from consumers in both at-home and away-from-home channels generally fuels not only reliable growth but some measure of recession resistance as well.<blockquote>饮料公司并不总是最值得购买的股票，但随着时间的推移，它们往往会表现良好。消费者在国内和国外渠道的稳定需求通常不仅会推动可靠的增长，还会在一定程度上增强抗衰退能力。</blockquote> Bubbly beverage OG&nbsp;Coca-Cola(KO) is just such a stock that has paid rising dividends longer than most of us have been on this earth, so it fits nicely into the “recession resistant” and “steady growth” categories to be sure.<blockquote>气泡饮料OG可口可乐(KO)就是这样一只股票，它支付股息的时间比我们大多数人在地球上的时间都要长，因此可以肯定的是，它非常适合“抗衰退”和“稳定增长”类别。</blockquote> But does that make the stock a buy today? In a world of elevated valuations and low yields, Coca-Cola today seems to fit the bill on both of those accounts as well, and given this, I’m not certain it’s a good use of your capital.<blockquote>但这是否意味着该股票今天值得买入？在一个估值高、收益率低的世界里，可口可乐今天似乎也符合这两个方面的要求，鉴于此，我不确定这是否是对你资本的良好利用。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bbebb19e477d4dc2dc1fced28dd1ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: StockCharts<blockquote>资料来源：股票图表</blockquote> We’ll start as we always do with a look at the chart to get a glimpse of where we are today. First, the stock broke out over its prior consolidation earlier this year after being pummeled down to $47 back in January. The rally took the stock up about ten bucks in a virtually straight line, which is a huge move for a stock like this. That rally was quite strong, but proved to be unsustainable, as evidenced by the momentum indicators.<blockquote>我们将像往常一样从看图表开始，以了解我们今天的情况。首先，该股在1月份跌至47美元后，在今年早些时候的盘整中爆发。这次反弹使该股几乎直线上涨了约10美元，对于这样的股票来说，这是一个巨大的波动。这次反弹相当强劲，但事实证明是不可持续的，动量指标就证明了这一点。</blockquote> The PPO made its high in April, months before the share price did, and even in the most recent stage of the rally, the PPO was actually declining fairly sharply, indicating that there was a meaningful negative divergence. That’s generally what the end of a rally looks like; the bulls are still fighting but not nearly as hard.<blockquote>PPO在4月份达到顶峰，比股价早了几个月，即使在最近的反弹阶段，PPO实际上也在大幅下跌，这表明存在显着的负背离。这通常是反弹结束的样子；公牛队仍在战斗，但没有那么努力。</blockquote> However, the PPO recently successfully tested centerline support (the blue oval) and looks like it wants to bounce. I’ve noted the trendline of the current rally, which is just about ready to bump heads with the prior high at $57. We’re going to get a showdown, and the stock will either break trend and decline, or break out and move higher.<blockquote>然而，PPO最近成功测试了中心线支撑（蓝色椭圆形），看起来它想要反弹。我注意到了当前反弹的趋势线，即将与之前的高点57美元相撞。我们将摊牌，该股要么突破趋势下跌，要么突破走高。</blockquote> It looks to me like the stock wants to break out, so that’s the way I’m leaning. However, I’m not certain enough to bet on that because the momentum divergences are concerning to me. But if Ihadto pick one, I’d say a breakout is slightly more likely.<blockquote>在我看来，这只股票想要突破，所以这就是我的倾向。然而，我还没有足够的把握押注于此，因为动量分歧令我担忧。但如果我哈德要选择一个，我会说突破的可能性稍微大一些。</blockquote> Fundamental considerations<blockquote>基本考虑</blockquote> Now, with a stock like Coca-Cola, there are lots of other considerations besides just the chart. We know that away-from-home volumes dried up massively for the company during the pandemic, as things like restaurants, sports stadiums, and other places where you would go out and buy a zesty beverage were shut temporarily. That segment is still gradually recovering for Coca-Cola, and it has had to compensate with its other growth avenues that are focused at-home, such as coffee, tea, and its core sparkling beverages in smaller packages, for instance.<blockquote>现在，对于像可口可乐这样的股票，除了图表之外，还有很多其他的考虑因素。我们知道，在疫情期间，该公司的出门在外销量大幅减少，因为餐馆、体育场和其他你可以出去购买风味饮料的地方都暂时关闭了。对于可口可乐来说，这一细分市场仍在逐渐复苏，它必须通过专注于国内的其他增长途径来弥补，例如咖啡、茶及其小包装的核心起泡饮料。</blockquote> That has shown up in revenue estimates, which we can see below.<blockquote>这已经体现在收入估计中，我们可以在下面看到。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e4b3773c1e7e807127bbb82caa7da31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Ignore the massive declines in the early part of this chart; that was due to the company’s now-completed bottling refranchising effort. We can focus on the past couple of years, and see that the company’s revenue estimates are still struggling relative to expectations. As great of a company as Coca-Cola is, you cannot escape the fact that it has a tendency to struggle with revenue estimates. That creates the obvious problem of a lower top line, but also because that impacts things like margins.<blockquote>忽略此图表早期部分的大幅下跌；这是由于该公司现已完成的装瓶重新特许经营工作。我们可以关注过去几年，看到该公司的收入预期相对于预期仍然存在困难。尽管可口可乐是一家伟大的公司，但你无法回避这样一个事实：它往往会在收入估计上挣扎。这造成了营收较低的明显问题，但也因为这会影响利润率等因素。</blockquote> The goal of the company’s refranchising effort was to boost margins by divesting low-margin bottling revenue, and it has certainly worked. But that tailwind is no more as those gains have been lapped, and Coca-Cola will now need to find actual margin improvements through sales mix, volumes, or any other means possible.<blockquote>该公司重新特许经营的目标是通过剥离低利润的装瓶收入来提高利润率，这无疑奏效了。但这种顺风已经不复存在，因为这些收益已经被抵消，可口可乐现在需要通过销售组合、销量或任何其他可能的手段来找到实际的利润率改善。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68a522469c81b40f6c530d60cfe366bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> As we can see, it is working to some extent. Operating margins are in excess of 31% on a trailing-twelve-month basis, which is great. But that’s only marginally higher than it was before the bottling refranchising effort was complete. I’ll say that the company has been able to find profitability improvements in recent quarters, some of which were due to corporate layoffs to reduce headcount where it was apparently bloated. But for investors wanting to own this stock, operating margins are critical, particularly because revenue growth has been so weak.<blockquote>正如我们所看到的，它在某种程度上是有效的。过去12个月的营业利润率超过31%，这非常好。但这仅比装瓶重新特许经营工作完成前略高。我想说的是，该公司最近几个季度的盈利能力有所改善，其中一些是由于公司裁员以减少明显臃肿的员工人数。但对于想要持有这只股票的投资者来说，营业利润率至关重要，特别是因为收入增长如此疲软。</blockquote> I’m not certain where revenue growth will come from for Coca-Cola apart from the usual suspects of bottled water, coffee, tea, and other non-sparkling beverages. The trick is that sparkling isn’t growing for the most part but continues to make a huge proportion of revenue. That makes overall growth tricky, even if one or more segments are flying. Diversification works both ways, and in Coca-Cola’s case, it has been a years-long struggle with consumers shifting preferences to non-sparkling beverages.<blockquote>除了常见的瓶装水、咖啡、茶和其他非起泡饮料之外，我不确定可口可乐的收入增长将来自哪里。诀窍在于，起泡酒在很大程度上并没有增长，但仍在收入中占很大比例。这使得整体增长变得棘手，即使一个或多个细分市场正在蓬勃发展。多元化是双向的，就可口可乐而言，消费者将偏好转向非起泡饮料已经进行了多年的斗争。</blockquote> Now, let’s take a look at earnings.<blockquote>现在，让我们来看看收益。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05cc94d311a7e832b05260e28f4e02f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> We can see the same sort of behavior that we saw with revenue, and that is not a compliment. EPS estimates have nearly continuously fallen, and while there’s been an uptick in recent months, it is peanuts compared to the prior declines.<blockquote>我们可以看到与收入相同的行为，但这并不是一种恭维。每股收益预期几乎持续下降，虽然近几个月有所上升，但与之前的下降相比微不足道。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88bfd9cfba9cb917a9ba85f7c2b6bd1d\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"108\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> We can see that all 24 revisions that have been made in the past three months have been higher, and that’s fantastic. However, in this case, keep in mind it was because the company is simply retracing lost ground; these are not estimates that are carving out new highs by any stretch of the imagination. You must temper your bullishness as a result, and keep in mind that the stock is knocking on the door of new highs while EPS estimates languish; more on that in a bit.<blockquote>我们可以看到，过去三个月中进行的所有24次修订都更高了，这太棒了。然而，在这种情况下，请记住，这是因为该公司只是在收复失地；无论怎么想象，这些估计都不会创下新高。因此，你必须缓和你的看涨情绪，并记住，当每股收益预期低迷时，该股正在敲开新高的大门；稍后会有更多介绍。</blockquote> Other considerations<blockquote>其他考虑</blockquote> Apart from revenue concerns, I have others with Coca-Cola as well. Below I’ve plotted long-term debt over the past several years to illustrate one meaningful concern I have.<blockquote>除了收入问题，我对可口可乐也有其他担忧。下面我绘制了过去几年的长期债务图，以说明我的一个有意义的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7520b696d1155d8ad6f911efaaf25c3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> We’re now up to about $40 billion in long-term debt, which is much higher than it was even before the refranchising effort was kicked off. Debt has been steady for the past handful of quarters, but this is a lot of debt for any company, and that includes one of the world’s premier consumer brands. Coca-Cola has the credit to borrow almost whatever it wants, so it isn’t like we’re looking at default potential. But what it does mean is that the company is on the hook for an ever-rising amount of interest expense, which is also taking a bigger share of operating income.<blockquote>我们现在的长期债务高达约400亿美元，甚至比重新特许经营工作启动之前的水平还要高得多。过去几个季度债务一直保持稳定，但对于任何公司来说，这都是一笔很大的债务，其中包括世界顶级消费品牌之一。可口可乐有信用几乎可以借任何它想借的东西，所以我们并不是在考虑违约的可能性。但这确实意味着该公司面临着不断增加的利息支出，这也占营业收入的更大份额。</blockquote> Below, we have operating income and interest expense on a trailing-twelve-month basis to illustrate what I’m on about.<blockquote>下面，我们以过去12个月的营业收入和利息支出来说明我的观点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c1d03e3beebf7482067c62b336d865\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> Operating income has been remarkably flat over the years given the amount of change the company has undergone. The most recent quarter finally saw a new high in TTM operating income at $11.5 billion, but interest expense was also $2.2 billion. As a percentage of operating income, interest expense is now nearly 20%. So while the company has been busy trying to boost margins and scrape together some revenue increases, it continues to pay more to creditors.<blockquote>考虑到公司经历的巨大变化，多年来营业收入一直非常持平。最近一个季度TTM营业收入终于创下新高，达到115亿美元，但利息支出也为22亿美元。利息支出占营业收入的比例目前接近20%。因此，尽管该公司一直忙于提高利润率并努力增加一些收入，但它仍继续向债权人支付更多费用。</blockquote> This, in turn, reduces EPS because more and more operating income is going to creditors rather than shareholders. At a time when the company is struggling to grow EPS, this is yet another headwind it doesn’t need.<blockquote>这反过来又会降低每股收益，因为越来越多的营业收入流向债权人而不是股东。在该公司努力增加每股收益之际，这是它不需要的另一个阻力。</blockquote> There’s another consideration for Coca-Cola given its mostly non-US revenue base, and that is forex conversion.<blockquote>鉴于可口可乐的收入基础主要不在美国，它还有另一个考虑因素，那就是外汇兑换。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/051241c57ed64f0f6e8247c1cd69b4f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> Forex conversion has been a headwind given US dollar strength, and as long as the dollar is strong, the company will continue to have hundreds of millions of dollars of headwinds from forex conversion over time. This fluctuates a bunch given the unpredictable nature of forex crosses, but one thing is clear: Coca-Cola isn’t managing it well and it shows.<blockquote>鉴于美元走强，外汇兑换一直是一个阻力，只要美元走强，随着时间的推移，该公司将继续面临数亿美元的外汇兑换阻力。鉴于外汇交叉的不可预测性，这种情况波动很大，但有一点是明确的：可口可乐没有很好地管理它，这是显而易见的。</blockquote> Final thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote> Coca-Cola has some of the greatest consumer brands that have ever existed, and it is a terrific dividend stock. However, the points I’ve raised here make me wary of the stock as it tries to make new highs. I see the valuation as quite stretched, not only against historical norms but against the company’s ability to grow earnings given the points I’ve raised.<blockquote>可口可乐拥有一些有史以来最伟大的消费品牌，而且它是一只非常棒的股息股票。然而，我在这里提出的观点让我对该股试图创下新高保持警惕。我认为估值相当过高，不仅违背了历史规范，而且考虑到我提出的观点，也违背了公司盈利增长的能力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0749226ff0f1d634f7296539e0b11cdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"188\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> The stock is at ~24X forward earnings today, which is nearly its highest valuation ever. The stock was slightly more expensive at times in 2020 and 2021, but compared to historical valuations, I see the stock as overpriced. That doesn’t mean it cannot get more overpriced by any means, but I’d suggest caution at this stage.<blockquote>该股目前的预期市盈率约为24倍，几乎是有史以来的最高估值。该股在2020年和2021年有时会稍微贵一些，但与历史估值相比，我认为该股定价过高。这并不意味着它的价格无论如何都不会变得更高，但我建议现阶段要谨慎。</blockquote> As I mentioned, I think the path of least resistance short-term is probably higher, but I’m in no way interested in trying to trade it. There are numerous headwinds in place that make me doubt the rally, and the valuation is way too stretched for my liking. There are better consumer stocks to buy than Coca-Cola, and if you want the dividend, I think you wait for another larger selloff before pulling the trigger. Medium-term, I see the stock either pulling back to reflect the headwinds I’ve mentioned, or consolidating for a long time to allow EPS to catch up to the share price. Either way, there is no urgency to go out and buy today.<blockquote>正如我提到的，我认为短期阻力最小的路径可能更高，但我对尝试交易它毫无兴趣。有许多不利因素让我怀疑反弹，而且估值太高，不符合我的喜好。有比可口可乐更好的消费股值得购买，如果你想要股息，我认为你应该等待另一次更大规模的抛售后再扣动扳机。从中期来看，我认为该股要么回调以反映我提到的不利因素，要么长期盘整以使每股收益赶上股价。不管怎样，今天都没有出去买的紧迫感。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Thinking Of Buying Coca-Cola? Think Again<blockquote>想买可口可乐吗？再想想</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThinking Of Buying Coca-Cola? Think Again<blockquote>想买可口可乐吗？再想想</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-07 15:36\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>KO looks like it wants to break out.</li> <li>But I'm skeptical right now given a number of fundamental headwinds.</li> <li>With the valuation stretched, avoid KO.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebefc82af0f236beb1dcd9de3c554471\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>KO看起来想要爆发。</li><li>但鉴于一些基本阻力，我现在持怀疑态度。</li><li>估值捉襟见肘，避免KO。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Beverage companies are not always the most glamorous stocks to buy, but over time, they tend to do well. Steady demand from consumers in both at-home and away-from-home channels generally fuels not only reliable growth but some measure of recession resistance as well.<blockquote>饮料公司并不总是最值得购买的股票，但随着时间的推移，它们往往会表现良好。消费者在国内和国外渠道的稳定需求通常不仅会推动可靠的增长，还会在一定程度上增强抗衰退能力。</blockquote> Bubbly beverage OG&nbsp;Coca-Cola(KO) is just such a stock that has paid rising dividends longer than most of us have been on this earth, so it fits nicely into the “recession resistant” and “steady growth” categories to be sure.<blockquote>气泡饮料OG可口可乐(KO)就是这样一只股票，它支付股息的时间比我们大多数人在地球上的时间都要长，因此可以肯定的是，它非常适合“抗衰退”和“稳定增长”类别。</blockquote> But does that make the stock a buy today? In a world of elevated valuations and low yields, Coca-Cola today seems to fit the bill on both of those accounts as well, and given this, I’m not certain it’s a good use of your capital.<blockquote>但这是否意味着该股票今天值得买入？在一个估值高、收益率低的世界里，可口可乐今天似乎也符合这两个方面的要求，鉴于此，我不确定这是否是对你资本的良好利用。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bbebb19e477d4dc2dc1fced28dd1ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: StockCharts<blockquote>资料来源：股票图表</blockquote> We’ll start as we always do with a look at the chart to get a glimpse of where we are today. First, the stock broke out over its prior consolidation earlier this year after being pummeled down to $47 back in January. The rally took the stock up about ten bucks in a virtually straight line, which is a huge move for a stock like this. That rally was quite strong, but proved to be unsustainable, as evidenced by the momentum indicators.<blockquote>我们将像往常一样从看图表开始，以了解我们今天的情况。首先，该股在1月份跌至47美元后，在今年早些时候的盘整中爆发。这次反弹使该股几乎直线上涨了约10美元，对于这样的股票来说，这是一个巨大的波动。这次反弹相当强劲，但事实证明是不可持续的，动量指标就证明了这一点。</blockquote> The PPO made its high in April, months before the share price did, and even in the most recent stage of the rally, the PPO was actually declining fairly sharply, indicating that there was a meaningful negative divergence. That’s generally what the end of a rally looks like; the bulls are still fighting but not nearly as hard.<blockquote>PPO在4月份达到顶峰，比股价早了几个月，即使在最近的反弹阶段，PPO实际上也在大幅下跌，这表明存在显着的负背离。这通常是反弹结束的样子；公牛队仍在战斗，但没有那么努力。</blockquote> However, the PPO recently successfully tested centerline support (the blue oval) and looks like it wants to bounce. I’ve noted the trendline of the current rally, which is just about ready to bump heads with the prior high at $57. We’re going to get a showdown, and the stock will either break trend and decline, or break out and move higher.<blockquote>然而，PPO最近成功测试了中心线支撑（蓝色椭圆形），看起来它想要反弹。我注意到了当前反弹的趋势线，即将与之前的高点57美元相撞。我们将摊牌，该股要么突破趋势下跌，要么突破走高。</blockquote> It looks to me like the stock wants to break out, so that’s the way I’m leaning. However, I’m not certain enough to bet on that because the momentum divergences are concerning to me. But if Ihadto pick one, I’d say a breakout is slightly more likely.<blockquote>在我看来，这只股票想要突破，所以这就是我的倾向。然而，我还没有足够的把握押注于此，因为动量分歧令我担忧。但如果我哈德要选择一个，我会说突破的可能性稍微大一些。</blockquote> Fundamental considerations<blockquote>基本考虑</blockquote> Now, with a stock like Coca-Cola, there are lots of other considerations besides just the chart. We know that away-from-home volumes dried up massively for the company during the pandemic, as things like restaurants, sports stadiums, and other places where you would go out and buy a zesty beverage were shut temporarily. That segment is still gradually recovering for Coca-Cola, and it has had to compensate with its other growth avenues that are focused at-home, such as coffee, tea, and its core sparkling beverages in smaller packages, for instance.<blockquote>现在，对于像可口可乐这样的股票，除了图表之外，还有很多其他的考虑因素。我们知道，在疫情期间，该公司的出门在外销量大幅减少，因为餐馆、体育场和其他你可以出去购买风味饮料的地方都暂时关闭了。对于可口可乐来说，这一细分市场仍在逐渐复苏，它必须通过专注于国内的其他增长途径来弥补，例如咖啡、茶及其小包装的核心起泡饮料。</blockquote> That has shown up in revenue estimates, which we can see below.<blockquote>这已经体现在收入估计中，我们可以在下面看到。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e4b3773c1e7e807127bbb82caa7da31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Ignore the massive declines in the early part of this chart; that was due to the company’s now-completed bottling refranchising effort. We can focus on the past couple of years, and see that the company’s revenue estimates are still struggling relative to expectations. As great of a company as Coca-Cola is, you cannot escape the fact that it has a tendency to struggle with revenue estimates. That creates the obvious problem of a lower top line, but also because that impacts things like margins.<blockquote>忽略此图表早期部分的大幅下跌；这是由于该公司现已完成的装瓶重新特许经营工作。我们可以关注过去几年，看到该公司的收入预期相对于预期仍然存在困难。尽管可口可乐是一家伟大的公司，但你无法回避这样一个事实：它往往会在收入估计上挣扎。这造成了营收较低的明显问题，但也因为这会影响利润率等因素。</blockquote> The goal of the company’s refranchising effort was to boost margins by divesting low-margin bottling revenue, and it has certainly worked. But that tailwind is no more as those gains have been lapped, and Coca-Cola will now need to find actual margin improvements through sales mix, volumes, or any other means possible.<blockquote>该公司重新特许经营的目标是通过剥离低利润的装瓶收入来提高利润率，这无疑奏效了。但这种顺风已经不复存在，因为这些收益已经被抵消，可口可乐现在需要通过销售组合、销量或任何其他可能的手段来找到实际的利润率改善。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68a522469c81b40f6c530d60cfe366bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> As we can see, it is working to some extent. Operating margins are in excess of 31% on a trailing-twelve-month basis, which is great. But that’s only marginally higher than it was before the bottling refranchising effort was complete. I’ll say that the company has been able to find profitability improvements in recent quarters, some of which were due to corporate layoffs to reduce headcount where it was apparently bloated. But for investors wanting to own this stock, operating margins are critical, particularly because revenue growth has been so weak.<blockquote>正如我们所看到的，它在某种程度上是有效的。过去12个月的营业利润率超过31%，这非常好。但这仅比装瓶重新特许经营工作完成前略高。我想说的是，该公司最近几个季度的盈利能力有所改善，其中一些是由于公司裁员以减少明显臃肿的员工人数。但对于想要持有这只股票的投资者来说，营业利润率至关重要，特别是因为收入增长如此疲软。</blockquote> I’m not certain where revenue growth will come from for Coca-Cola apart from the usual suspects of bottled water, coffee, tea, and other non-sparkling beverages. The trick is that sparkling isn’t growing for the most part but continues to make a huge proportion of revenue. That makes overall growth tricky, even if one or more segments are flying. Diversification works both ways, and in Coca-Cola’s case, it has been a years-long struggle with consumers shifting preferences to non-sparkling beverages.<blockquote>除了常见的瓶装水、咖啡、茶和其他非起泡饮料之外，我不确定可口可乐的收入增长将来自哪里。诀窍在于，起泡酒在很大程度上并没有增长，但仍在收入中占很大比例。这使得整体增长变得棘手，即使一个或多个细分市场正在蓬勃发展。多元化是双向的，就可口可乐而言，消费者将偏好转向非起泡饮料已经进行了多年的斗争。</blockquote> Now, let’s take a look at earnings.<blockquote>现在，让我们来看看收益。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05cc94d311a7e832b05260e28f4e02f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> We can see the same sort of behavior that we saw with revenue, and that is not a compliment. EPS estimates have nearly continuously fallen, and while there’s been an uptick in recent months, it is peanuts compared to the prior declines.<blockquote>我们可以看到与收入相同的行为，但这并不是一种恭维。每股收益预期几乎持续下降，虽然近几个月有所上升，但与之前的下降相比微不足道。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88bfd9cfba9cb917a9ba85f7c2b6bd1d\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"108\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> We can see that all 24 revisions that have been made in the past three months have been higher, and that’s fantastic. However, in this case, keep in mind it was because the company is simply retracing lost ground; these are not estimates that are carving out new highs by any stretch of the imagination. You must temper your bullishness as a result, and keep in mind that the stock is knocking on the door of new highs while EPS estimates languish; more on that in a bit.<blockquote>我们可以看到，过去三个月中进行的所有24次修订都更高了，这太棒了。然而，在这种情况下，请记住，这是因为该公司只是在收复失地；无论怎么想象，这些估计都不会创下新高。因此，你必须缓和你的看涨情绪，并记住，当每股收益预期低迷时，该股正在敲开新高的大门；稍后会有更多介绍。</blockquote> Other considerations<blockquote>其他考虑</blockquote> Apart from revenue concerns, I have others with Coca-Cola as well. Below I’ve plotted long-term debt over the past several years to illustrate one meaningful concern I have.<blockquote>除了收入问题，我对可口可乐也有其他担忧。下面我绘制了过去几年的长期债务图，以说明我的一个有意义的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7520b696d1155d8ad6f911efaaf25c3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> We’re now up to about $40 billion in long-term debt, which is much higher than it was even before the refranchising effort was kicked off. Debt has been steady for the past handful of quarters, but this is a lot of debt for any company, and that includes one of the world’s premier consumer brands. Coca-Cola has the credit to borrow almost whatever it wants, so it isn’t like we’re looking at default potential. But what it does mean is that the company is on the hook for an ever-rising amount of interest expense, which is also taking a bigger share of operating income.<blockquote>我们现在的长期债务高达约400亿美元，甚至比重新特许经营工作启动之前的水平还要高得多。过去几个季度债务一直保持稳定，但对于任何公司来说，这都是一笔很大的债务，其中包括世界顶级消费品牌之一。可口可乐有信用几乎可以借任何它想借的东西，所以我们并不是在考虑违约的可能性。但这确实意味着该公司面临着不断增加的利息支出，这也占营业收入的更大份额。</blockquote> Below, we have operating income and interest expense on a trailing-twelve-month basis to illustrate what I’m on about.<blockquote>下面，我们以过去12个月的营业收入和利息支出来说明我的观点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c1d03e3beebf7482067c62b336d865\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> Operating income has been remarkably flat over the years given the amount of change the company has undergone. The most recent quarter finally saw a new high in TTM operating income at $11.5 billion, but interest expense was also $2.2 billion. As a percentage of operating income, interest expense is now nearly 20%. So while the company has been busy trying to boost margins and scrape together some revenue increases, it continues to pay more to creditors.<blockquote>考虑到公司经历的巨大变化，多年来营业收入一直非常持平。最近一个季度TTM营业收入终于创下新高，达到115亿美元，但利息支出也为22亿美元。利息支出占营业收入的比例目前接近20%。因此，尽管该公司一直忙于提高利润率并努力增加一些收入，但它仍继续向债权人支付更多费用。</blockquote> This, in turn, reduces EPS because more and more operating income is going to creditors rather than shareholders. At a time when the company is struggling to grow EPS, this is yet another headwind it doesn’t need.<blockquote>这反过来又会降低每股收益，因为越来越多的营业收入流向债权人而不是股东。在该公司努力增加每股收益之际，这是它不需要的另一个阻力。</blockquote> There’s another consideration for Coca-Cola given its mostly non-US revenue base, and that is forex conversion.<blockquote>鉴于可口可乐的收入基础主要不在美国，它还有另一个考虑因素，那就是外汇兑换。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/051241c57ed64f0f6e8247c1cd69b4f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> Forex conversion has been a headwind given US dollar strength, and as long as the dollar is strong, the company will continue to have hundreds of millions of dollars of headwinds from forex conversion over time. This fluctuates a bunch given the unpredictable nature of forex crosses, but one thing is clear: Coca-Cola isn’t managing it well and it shows.<blockquote>鉴于美元走强，外汇兑换一直是一个阻力，只要美元走强，随着时间的推移，该公司将继续面临数亿美元的外汇兑换阻力。鉴于外汇交叉的不可预测性，这种情况波动很大，但有一点是明确的：可口可乐没有很好地管理它，这是显而易见的。</blockquote> Final thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote> Coca-Cola has some of the greatest consumer brands that have ever existed, and it is a terrific dividend stock. However, the points I’ve raised here make me wary of the stock as it tries to make new highs. I see the valuation as quite stretched, not only against historical norms but against the company’s ability to grow earnings given the points I’ve raised.<blockquote>可口可乐拥有一些有史以来最伟大的消费品牌，而且它是一只非常棒的股息股票。然而，我在这里提出的观点让我对该股试图创下新高保持警惕。我认为估值相当过高，不仅违背了历史规范，而且考虑到我提出的观点，也违背了公司盈利增长的能力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0749226ff0f1d634f7296539e0b11cdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"188\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> The stock is at ~24X forward earnings today, which is nearly its highest valuation ever. The stock was slightly more expensive at times in 2020 and 2021, but compared to historical valuations, I see the stock as overpriced. That doesn’t mean it cannot get more overpriced by any means, but I’d suggest caution at this stage.<blockquote>该股目前的预期市盈率约为24倍，几乎是有史以来的最高估值。该股在2020年和2021年有时会稍微贵一些，但与历史估值相比，我认为该股定价过高。这并不意味着它的价格无论如何都不会变得更高，但我建议现阶段要谨慎。</blockquote> As I mentioned, I think the path of least resistance short-term is probably higher, but I’m in no way interested in trying to trade it. There are numerous headwinds in place that make me doubt the rally, and the valuation is way too stretched for my liking. There are better consumer stocks to buy than Coca-Cola, and if you want the dividend, I think you wait for another larger selloff before pulling the trigger. Medium-term, I see the stock either pulling back to reflect the headwinds I’ve mentioned, or consolidating for a long time to allow EPS to catch up to the share price. Either way, there is no urgency to go out and buy today.<blockquote>正如我提到的，我认为短期阻力最小的路径可能更高，但我对尝试交易它毫无兴趣。有许多不利因素让我怀疑反弹，而且估值太高，不符合我的喜好。有比可口可乐更好的消费股值得购买，如果你想要股息，我认为你应该等待另一次更大规模的抛售后再扣动扳机。从中期来看，我认为该股要么回调以反映我提到的不利因素，要么长期盘整以使每股收益赶上股价。不管怎样，今天都没有出去买的紧迫感。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453756-thinking-of-buying-coca-cola-think-again\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KO":"可口可乐"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453756-thinking-of-buying-coca-cola-think-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167423848","content_text":"Summary\n\nKO looks like it wants to break out.\nBut I'm skeptical right now given a number of fundamental headwinds.\nWith the valuation stretched, avoid KO.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nBeverage companies are not always the most glamorous stocks to buy, but over time, they tend to do well. Steady demand from consumers in both at-home and away-from-home channels generally fuels not only reliable growth but some measure of recession resistance as well.\nBubbly beverage OG Coca-Cola(KO) is just such a stock that has paid rising dividends longer than most of us have been on this earth, so it fits nicely into the “recession resistant” and “steady growth” categories to be sure.\nBut does that make the stock a buy today? In a world of elevated valuations and low yields, Coca-Cola today seems to fit the bill on both of those accounts as well, and given this, I’m not certain it’s a good use of your capital.\nSource: StockCharts\nWe’ll start as we always do with a look at the chart to get a glimpse of where we are today. First, the stock broke out over its prior consolidation earlier this year after being pummeled down to $47 back in January. The rally took the stock up about ten bucks in a virtually straight line, which is a huge move for a stock like this. That rally was quite strong, but proved to be unsustainable, as evidenced by the momentum indicators.\nThe PPO made its high in April, months before the share price did, and even in the most recent stage of the rally, the PPO was actually declining fairly sharply, indicating that there was a meaningful negative divergence. That’s generally what the end of a rally looks like; the bulls are still fighting but not nearly as hard.\nHowever, the PPO recently successfully tested centerline support (the blue oval) and looks like it wants to bounce. I’ve noted the trendline of the current rally, which is just about ready to bump heads with the prior high at $57. We’re going to get a showdown, and the stock will either break trend and decline, or break out and move higher.\nIt looks to me like the stock wants to break out, so that’s the way I’m leaning. However, I’m not certain enough to bet on that because the momentum divergences are concerning to me. But if Ihadto pick one, I’d say a breakout is slightly more likely.\nFundamental considerations\nNow, with a stock like Coca-Cola, there are lots of other considerations besides just the chart. We know that away-from-home volumes dried up massively for the company during the pandemic, as things like restaurants, sports stadiums, and other places where you would go out and buy a zesty beverage were shut temporarily. That segment is still gradually recovering for Coca-Cola, and it has had to compensate with its other growth avenues that are focused at-home, such as coffee, tea, and its core sparkling beverages in smaller packages, for instance.\nThat has shown up in revenue estimates, which we can see below.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nIgnore the massive declines in the early part of this chart; that was due to the company’s now-completed bottling refranchising effort. We can focus on the past couple of years, and see that the company’s revenue estimates are still struggling relative to expectations. As great of a company as Coca-Cola is, you cannot escape the fact that it has a tendency to struggle with revenue estimates. That creates the obvious problem of a lower top line, but also because that impacts things like margins.\nThe goal of the company’s refranchising effort was to boost margins by divesting low-margin bottling revenue, and it has certainly worked. But that tailwind is no more as those gains have been lapped, and Coca-Cola will now need to find actual margin improvements through sales mix, volumes, or any other means possible.\nSource: TIKR.com\nAs we can see, it is working to some extent. Operating margins are in excess of 31% on a trailing-twelve-month basis, which is great. But that’s only marginally higher than it was before the bottling refranchising effort was complete. I’ll say that the company has been able to find profitability improvements in recent quarters, some of which were due to corporate layoffs to reduce headcount where it was apparently bloated. But for investors wanting to own this stock, operating margins are critical, particularly because revenue growth has been so weak.\nI’m not certain where revenue growth will come from for Coca-Cola apart from the usual suspects of bottled water, coffee, tea, and other non-sparkling beverages. The trick is that sparkling isn’t growing for the most part but continues to make a huge proportion of revenue. That makes overall growth tricky, even if one or more segments are flying. Diversification works both ways, and in Coca-Cola’s case, it has been a years-long struggle with consumers shifting preferences to non-sparkling beverages.\nNow, let’s take a look at earnings.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nWe can see the same sort of behavior that we saw with revenue, and that is not a compliment. EPS estimates have nearly continuously fallen, and while there’s been an uptick in recent months, it is peanuts compared to the prior declines.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nWe can see that all 24 revisions that have been made in the past three months have been higher, and that’s fantastic. However, in this case, keep in mind it was because the company is simply retracing lost ground; these are not estimates that are carving out new highs by any stretch of the imagination. You must temper your bullishness as a result, and keep in mind that the stock is knocking on the door of new highs while EPS estimates languish; more on that in a bit.\nOther considerations\nApart from revenue concerns, I have others with Coca-Cola as well. Below I’ve plotted long-term debt over the past several years to illustrate one meaningful concern I have.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe’re now up to about $40 billion in long-term debt, which is much higher than it was even before the refranchising effort was kicked off. Debt has been steady for the past handful of quarters, but this is a lot of debt for any company, and that includes one of the world’s premier consumer brands. Coca-Cola has the credit to borrow almost whatever it wants, so it isn’t like we’re looking at default potential. But what it does mean is that the company is on the hook for an ever-rising amount of interest expense, which is also taking a bigger share of operating income.\nBelow, we have operating income and interest expense on a trailing-twelve-month basis to illustrate what I’m on about.\nSource: TIKR.com\nOperating income has been remarkably flat over the years given the amount of change the company has undergone. The most recent quarter finally saw a new high in TTM operating income at $11.5 billion, but interest expense was also $2.2 billion. As a percentage of operating income, interest expense is now nearly 20%. So while the company has been busy trying to boost margins and scrape together some revenue increases, it continues to pay more to creditors.\nThis, in turn, reduces EPS because more and more operating income is going to creditors rather than shareholders. At a time when the company is struggling to grow EPS, this is yet another headwind it doesn’t need.\nThere’s another consideration for Coca-Cola given its mostly non-US revenue base, and that is forex conversion.\nSource: TIKR.com\nForex conversion has been a headwind given US dollar strength, and as long as the dollar is strong, the company will continue to have hundreds of millions of dollars of headwinds from forex conversion over time. This fluctuates a bunch given the unpredictable nature of forex crosses, but one thing is clear: Coca-Cola isn’t managing it well and it shows.\nFinal thoughts\nCoca-Cola has some of the greatest consumer brands that have ever existed, and it is a terrific dividend stock. However, the points I’ve raised here make me wary of the stock as it tries to make new highs. I see the valuation as quite stretched, not only against historical norms but against the company’s ability to grow earnings given the points I’ve raised.\nSource: TIKR.com\nThe stock is at ~24X forward earnings today, which is nearly its highest valuation ever. The stock was slightly more expensive at times in 2020 and 2021, but compared to historical valuations, I see the stock as overpriced. That doesn’t mean it cannot get more overpriced by any means, but I’d suggest caution at this stage.\nAs I mentioned, I think the path of least resistance short-term is probably higher, but I’m in no way interested in trying to trade it. There are numerous headwinds in place that make me doubt the rally, and the valuation is way too stretched for my liking. There are better consumer stocks to buy than Coca-Cola, and if you want the dividend, I think you wait for another larger selloff before pulling the trigger. Medium-term, I see the stock either pulling back to reflect the headwinds I’ve mentioned, or consolidating for a long time to allow EPS to catch up to the share price. Either way, there is no urgency to go out and buy today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2683,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}