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2021-09-13

Need go be prepared for this

U.S. Stock Market Faces Risk of Bumpy Autumn, Wall Street Analysts Warn<blockquote>华尔街分析师警告美国股市面临跌跌撞撞的风险</blockquote>

After a record-breaking bull run for the U.S. stock market this year, many Wall Street analysts are

U.S. Stock Market Faces Risk of Bumpy Autumn, Wall Street Analysts Warn<blockquote>华尔街分析师警告美国股市面临跌跌撞撞的风险</blockquote>

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With the S&amp;P 500 already hitting 54 records this year through Thursday—the most during that period since 1995—several analysts said that they believe there is a growing possibility of a pullback or, at the least, flatter returns.<blockquote>摩根士丹利、花旗集团、德意志银行和美国银行等公司的分析师本月发表报告，警告美国股市当前的风险。截至周四，标普500今年已创下54项纪录，为1995年以来同期最高纪录，几位分析师表示，他们认为回调的可能性越来越大，或者至少回报率持平。</blockquote> Behind that cautious outlook, the researchers said, is a combination of things, including&nbsp;euphoric investment sentiment, extended valuations and anticipation that inflation and supply-chain disruptions will weigh on corporate margins.<blockquote>研究人员表示，这种谨慎前景的背后是多种因素的综合作用，包括乐观的投资情绪、持续的估值以及对通胀和供应链中断将拖累企业利润率的预期。</blockquote> In a Wednesday note, strategists at BofA Securities said they saw little to be excited about, asking, “What good news is left?” They added, “A lot of optimism is already priced in.”<blockquote>美国银行证券的策略师在周三的一份报告中表示，他们没有什么值得兴奋的，他们问道：“还剩下什么好消息？”他们补充道，“很多乐观情绪已经被消化了。”</blockquote> In the note, the Bank of America team led by Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, moved its year-end price target for the S&amp;P 500 price to 4250—a 4.7% reduction from the 4458.58 level at which the benchmark index closed Friday. For 2022, Bank of America set a 4600 price target for the end of the year.<blockquote>在报告中，由美国股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian领导的美银团队将标普500年终目标价上调至4250点，较基准指数收盘价4458.58点下跌4.7%周五。对于2022年，美国银行设定了年底4600点的目标价。</blockquote> The analysts’ cautious outlook for U.S. stocks presents a contrast to the so-called TINA—or “There Is No Alternative”—motto that has dominated investors’ outlook for much of the past year. Because yields on other assets such as bonds have been so low, many investors have justified their continuous bullish positioning in stocks.Accommodative monetary policy&nbsp;from the Federal Reserve has provided a continuous boost for equities this year, too, as has the lure of big investment returns from a swath of companies, ranging from&nbsp;meme stocks&nbsp;to&nbsp;Covid-19 beneficiaries.<blockquote>分析师对美股的谨慎前景与过去一年大部分时间主导投资者前景的所谓TINA（即“别无选择”）座右铭形成鲜明对比。由于债券等其他资产的收益率一直很低，许多投资者证明了他们持续看涨股票的合理性。美联储的宽松货币政策今年也为股市提供了持续提振，巨额投资的诱惑也是如此。从meme股票到Covid-19受益者等众多公司的回报。</blockquote> In their September notes, however, some strategists said they were looking at other parts of the market for future gains. In a note last week, Morgan Stanley strategists wrote that they were downgrading their rating on U.S. equities to “underweight,” saying they prefer stocks in Europe and Japan and view cash as increasingly attractive to hold.<blockquote>然而，一些策略师在9月份的报告中表示，他们正在关注市场的其他部分，以寻求未来的收益。在上周的一份报告中，大摩策略师写道，他们将美股评级下调至“跑输大盘”，称他们更喜欢欧日股票，并认为持有现金的吸引力越来越大。</blockquote> “We expect an understandable level of eye-rolling as we move overweight cash,” the Morgan Stanley team including Andrew Sheets wrote in the note, adding the caveat that select international equities and other assets are attractive relative to cash. The note continued, “Morgan Stanley strategists forecast cash to outperform U.S. equities, government bonds and credit over the next 12 months.”<blockquote>包括Andrew Sheets在内的摩根士丹利团队在报告中写道：“我们预计，当我们转移跑赢大盘现金时，会出现可以理解的翻白眼。”并补充说，部分国际股票和其他资产相对于现金具有吸引力。该报告继续说道，“摩根士丹利策略师预测，未来12个月现金的表现将优于美国股票、政府债券和信贷。”</blockquote> Parts of Morgan Stanley’s forecast are being put to work at New York Life Investments, the investment arm of New York Life Insurance Co. with more than $600 billion in assets under management.<blockquote>摩根士丹利的部分预测正在纽约人寿投资公司付诸实施，该公司是纽约人寿保险公司的投资部门，管理着超过6000亿美元的资产。</blockquote> In its investment portfolio, the firm currently has an overweight position in international developed equity. Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said there has been more economic upside in Europe and Canada—two areas in which the firm has increased its investments.<blockquote>在其投资组合中，该公司目前在国际发达股票中拥有跑赢大盘头寸。纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，欧洲和加拿大的经济上行空间更大，该公司已在这两个地区增加了投资。</blockquote> Domestically, Ms. Goodwin says she believes the best days for some portions of the market are likely behind us. Still, she says it is too early for investors to go fully defensive. She said the investment firm expects some value and small-cap companies to continue to perform well.<blockquote>古德温女士表示，在国内，她相信某些市场的最佳时期可能已经过去。不过，她表示，投资者现在采取全面防御还为时过早。她表示，该投资公司预计一些价值型和小盘股公司将继续表现良好。</blockquote> “The way we’re positioning our portfolios is that we are sticking with the reopening trade but believe...investors will have to invest more time and effort into finding quality companies that will continue to see earnings expansion,” said Ms. Goodwin.<blockquote>古德温女士表示：“我们定位投资组合的方式是，我们坚持重新开放交易，但相信……投资者将不得不投入更多时间和精力来寻找盈利将继续扩张的优质公司。”</blockquote> Already there have been signs of weakness within the U.S. stock market in recent trading sessions. All three major indexes declined last week and are currently down for the month. The trend, if continued, would mark the first monthly loss for the S&amp;P 500 since January. In general, September tends to be a historically weak period for the U.S. stock market. This year, in particular, investors are entering the choppy period with uncertainty.<blockquote>最近几个交易日，美国股市已经出现疲软迹象。三大指数上周均下跌，目前本月均下跌。如果这种趋势持续下去，将标志着标普500自一月份以来首次出现月度亏损。总的来说，9月往往是美股历史上的弱势时期。尤其是今年，投资者正在进入充满不确定性的震荡期。</blockquote> In the week ahead,&nbsp;investors will be parsing the latest inflation data that will come from the Labor Department’s consumer-price index, due out Tuesday. They will also be on the lookout for any fresh commentary from central bankers on their views of when the Fed will pull back on its asset-buying stimulus program. Some investors and analysts see the tightening of monetary policy as a potential risk for stocks.<blockquote>未来一周，投资者将分析来自劳工部消费者价格指数的最新通胀数据，该数据将于周二公布。他们还将关注央行行长们对美联储何时退出资产购买刺激计划的看法的任何新评论。一些投资者和分析师将货币政策收紧视为股市的潜在风险。</blockquote> In a note last week, analysts at Citi Research said they see another risk for the market: the concern that current bullish positioning could amplify a market selloff. Such long positions on the S&amp;P 500 outnumber shorts 10 to 1, a team of analysts including Chris Montagu wrote, adding that around half of long positions would be in a loss situation if the benchmark index moved below 4435, less than 1% away from Friday’s closing level.<blockquote>花旗研究部分析师在上周的一份报告中表示，他们看到了市场面临的另一个风险：担心当前的看涨头寸可能会加剧市场抛售。包括Chris Montagu在内的分析师团队写道，标普500的此类多头头寸数量与空头头寸数量为10比1，并补充说，如果基准指数跌破4435点，距离周五收盘水平不到1%，大约一半的多头头寸将处于亏损状态。</blockquote> “That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down,” the Citi note said.<blockquote>花旗报告称：“这意味着强制多头平仓可能会放大小幅回调，从而推动市场进一步下跌。”</blockquote> This month’s alarm bells from analysts aren’t the first to be sounded during the current bull market. Throughout 2021, wide-ranging market observers on Wall Street have raised concerns about signs of excess in the market, and investors have periodically braced for a pullback.<blockquote>本月分析师敲响的警钟并不是当前牛市期间第一次敲响。在整个2021年，华尔街广泛的市场观察人士对市场过剩的迹象表示担忧，投资者定期为回调做好准备。</blockquote> Still, U.S. stocks have largely kept rising, even in the midst of periodic stretches of declines. On Friday&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 fell&nbsp;for a fifth consecutive session, its longest losing streak since February, to post a 1.7% loss for the week.<blockquote>尽管如此，即使在周期性下跌的情况下，美国股市仍基本保持上涨。周五，标普500连续第五个交易日下跌，这是自2月份以来最长的连跌，本周下跌1.7%。</blockquote> The last time the benchmark index had a weekly loss around that size was the week ended June 18, when it fell 1.9% for the week. The index then went on to rally 4.9% over the next three weeks.<blockquote>该基准指数上一次出现如此规模的周跌幅是在截至6月18日的一周，当时该指数当周下跌1.9%。该指数在接下来的三周内继续上涨4.9%。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stock Market Faces Risk of Bumpy Autumn, Wall Street Analysts Warn<blockquote>华尔街分析师警告美国股市面临跌跌撞撞的风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stock Market Faces Risk of Bumpy Autumn, Wall Street Analysts Warn<blockquote>华尔街分析师警告美国股市面临跌跌撞撞的风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nWSJ2021-09-13 08:13\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAfter a record-breaking bull run for the U.S. stock market this year, many Wall Street analysts are starting to warn that investors could be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks and months.<blockquote>在今年美国股市创纪录的牛市之后，许多华尔街分析师开始警告称，投资者在未来几周和几个月可能会经历坎坷。</blockquote> Analysts at firms including Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Corp. published notes this month cautioning about current risks in the U.S. equity market. With the S&amp;P 500 already hitting 54 records this year through Thursday—the most during that period since 1995—several analysts said that they believe there is a growing possibility of a pullback or, at the least, flatter returns.<blockquote>摩根士丹利、花旗集团、德意志银行和美国银行等公司的分析师本月发表报告，警告美国股市当前的风险。截至周四，标普500今年已创下54项纪录，为1995年以来同期最高纪录，几位分析师表示，他们认为回调的可能性越来越大，或者至少回报率持平。</blockquote> Behind that cautious outlook, the researchers said, is a combination of things, including&nbsp;euphoric investment sentiment, extended valuations and anticipation that inflation and supply-chain disruptions will weigh on corporate margins.<blockquote>研究人员表示，这种谨慎前景的背后是多种因素的综合作用，包括乐观的投资情绪、持续的估值以及对通胀和供应链中断将拖累企业利润率的预期。</blockquote> In a Wednesday note, strategists at BofA Securities said they saw little to be excited about, asking, “What good news is left?” They added, “A lot of optimism is already priced in.”<blockquote>美国银行证券的策略师在周三的一份报告中表示，他们没有什么值得兴奋的，他们问道：“还剩下什么好消息？”他们补充道，“很多乐观情绪已经被消化了。”</blockquote> In the note, the Bank of America team led by Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, moved its year-end price target for the S&amp;P 500 price to 4250—a 4.7% reduction from the 4458.58 level at which the benchmark index closed Friday. For 2022, Bank of America set a 4600 price target for the end of the year.<blockquote>在报告中，由美国股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian领导的美银团队将标普500年终目标价上调至4250点，较基准指数收盘价4458.58点下跌4.7%周五。对于2022年，美国银行设定了年底4600点的目标价。</blockquote> The analysts’ cautious outlook for U.S. stocks presents a contrast to the so-called TINA—or “There Is No Alternative”—motto that has dominated investors’ outlook for much of the past year. Because yields on other assets such as bonds have been so low, many investors have justified their continuous bullish positioning in stocks.Accommodative monetary policy&nbsp;from the Federal Reserve has provided a continuous boost for equities this year, too, as has the lure of big investment returns from a swath of companies, ranging from&nbsp;meme stocks&nbsp;to&nbsp;Covid-19 beneficiaries.<blockquote>分析师对美股的谨慎前景与过去一年大部分时间主导投资者前景的所谓TINA（即“别无选择”）座右铭形成鲜明对比。由于债券等其他资产的收益率一直很低，许多投资者证明了他们持续看涨股票的合理性。美联储的宽松货币政策今年也为股市提供了持续提振，巨额投资的诱惑也是如此。从meme股票到Covid-19受益者等众多公司的回报。</blockquote> In their September notes, however, some strategists said they were looking at other parts of the market for future gains. In a note last week, Morgan Stanley strategists wrote that they were downgrading their rating on U.S. equities to “underweight,” saying they prefer stocks in Europe and Japan and view cash as increasingly attractive to hold.<blockquote>然而，一些策略师在9月份的报告中表示，他们正在关注市场的其他部分，以寻求未来的收益。在上周的一份报告中，大摩策略师写道，他们将美股评级下调至“跑输大盘”，称他们更喜欢欧日股票，并认为持有现金的吸引力越来越大。</blockquote> “We expect an understandable level of eye-rolling as we move overweight cash,” the Morgan Stanley team including Andrew Sheets wrote in the note, adding the caveat that select international equities and other assets are attractive relative to cash. The note continued, “Morgan Stanley strategists forecast cash to outperform U.S. equities, government bonds and credit over the next 12 months.”<blockquote>包括Andrew Sheets在内的摩根士丹利团队在报告中写道：“我们预计，当我们转移跑赢大盘现金时，会出现可以理解的翻白眼。”并补充说，部分国际股票和其他资产相对于现金具有吸引力。该报告继续说道，“摩根士丹利策略师预测，未来12个月现金的表现将优于美国股票、政府债券和信贷。”</blockquote> Parts of Morgan Stanley’s forecast are being put to work at New York Life Investments, the investment arm of New York Life Insurance Co. with more than $600 billion in assets under management.<blockquote>摩根士丹利的部分预测正在纽约人寿投资公司付诸实施，该公司是纽约人寿保险公司的投资部门，管理着超过6000亿美元的资产。</blockquote> In its investment portfolio, the firm currently has an overweight position in international developed equity. Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said there has been more economic upside in Europe and Canada—two areas in which the firm has increased its investments.<blockquote>在其投资组合中，该公司目前在国际发达股票中拥有跑赢大盘头寸。纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，欧洲和加拿大的经济上行空间更大，该公司已在这两个地区增加了投资。</blockquote> Domestically, Ms. Goodwin says she believes the best days for some portions of the market are likely behind us. Still, she says it is too early for investors to go fully defensive. She said the investment firm expects some value and small-cap companies to continue to perform well.<blockquote>古德温女士表示，在国内，她相信某些市场的最佳时期可能已经过去。不过，她表示，投资者现在采取全面防御还为时过早。她表示，该投资公司预计一些价值型和小盘股公司将继续表现良好。</blockquote> “The way we’re positioning our portfolios is that we are sticking with the reopening trade but believe...investors will have to invest more time and effort into finding quality companies that will continue to see earnings expansion,” said Ms. Goodwin.<blockquote>古德温女士表示：“我们定位投资组合的方式是，我们坚持重新开放交易，但相信……投资者将不得不投入更多时间和精力来寻找盈利将继续扩张的优质公司。”</blockquote> Already there have been signs of weakness within the U.S. stock market in recent trading sessions. All three major indexes declined last week and are currently down for the month. The trend, if continued, would mark the first monthly loss for the S&amp;P 500 since January. In general, September tends to be a historically weak period for the U.S. stock market. This year, in particular, investors are entering the choppy period with uncertainty.<blockquote>最近几个交易日，美国股市已经出现疲软迹象。三大指数上周均下跌，目前本月均下跌。如果这种趋势持续下去，将标志着标普500自一月份以来首次出现月度亏损。总的来说，9月往往是美股历史上的弱势时期。尤其是今年，投资者正在进入充满不确定性的震荡期。</blockquote> In the week ahead,&nbsp;investors will be parsing the latest inflation data that will come from the Labor Department’s consumer-price index, due out Tuesday. They will also be on the lookout for any fresh commentary from central bankers on their views of when the Fed will pull back on its asset-buying stimulus program. Some investors and analysts see the tightening of monetary policy as a potential risk for stocks.<blockquote>未来一周，投资者将分析来自劳工部消费者价格指数的最新通胀数据，该数据将于周二公布。他们还将关注央行行长们对美联储何时退出资产购买刺激计划的看法的任何新评论。一些投资者和分析师将货币政策收紧视为股市的潜在风险。</blockquote> In a note last week, analysts at Citi Research said they see another risk for the market: the concern that current bullish positioning could amplify a market selloff. Such long positions on the S&amp;P 500 outnumber shorts 10 to 1, a team of analysts including Chris Montagu wrote, adding that around half of long positions would be in a loss situation if the benchmark index moved below 4435, less than 1% away from Friday’s closing level.<blockquote>花旗研究部分析师在上周的一份报告中表示，他们看到了市场面临的另一个风险：担心当前的看涨头寸可能会加剧市场抛售。包括Chris Montagu在内的分析师团队写道，标普500的此类多头头寸数量与空头头寸数量为10比1，并补充说，如果基准指数跌破4435点，距离周五收盘水平不到1%，大约一半的多头头寸将处于亏损状态。</blockquote> “That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down,” the Citi note said.<blockquote>花旗报告称：“这意味着强制多头平仓可能会放大小幅回调，从而推动市场进一步下跌。”</blockquote> This month’s alarm bells from analysts aren’t the first to be sounded during the current bull market. Throughout 2021, wide-ranging market observers on Wall Street have raised concerns about signs of excess in the market, and investors have periodically braced for a pullback.<blockquote>本月分析师敲响的警钟并不是当前牛市期间第一次敲响。在整个2021年，华尔街广泛的市场观察人士对市场过剩的迹象表示担忧，投资者定期为回调做好准备。</blockquote> Still, U.S. stocks have largely kept rising, even in the midst of periodic stretches of declines. On Friday&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 fell&nbsp;for a fifth consecutive session, its longest losing streak since February, to post a 1.7% loss for the week.<blockquote>尽管如此，即使在周期性下跌的情况下，美国股市仍基本保持上涨。周五，标普500连续第五个交易日下跌，这是自2月份以来最长的连跌，本周下跌1.7%。</blockquote> The last time the benchmark index had a weekly loss around that size was the week ended June 18, when it fell 1.9% for the week. The index then went on to rally 4.9% over the next three weeks.<blockquote>该基准指数上一次出现如此规模的周跌幅是在截至6月18日的一周，当时该指数当周下跌1.9%。该指数在接下来的三周内继续上涨4.9%。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-market-faces-potentially-bumpy-autumn-wall-street-analysts-warn-11631439002?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">WSJ</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-market-faces-potentially-bumpy-autumn-wall-street-analysts-warn-11631439002?mod=hp_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190225456","content_text":"After a record-breaking bull run for the U.S. stock market this year, many Wall Street analysts are starting to warn that investors could be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks and months.\nAnalysts at firms including Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Corp. published notes this month cautioning about current risks in the U.S. equity market. With the S&P 500 already hitting 54 records this year through Thursday—the most during that period since 1995—several analysts said that they believe there is a growing possibility of a pullback or, at the least, flatter returns.\nBehind that cautious outlook, the researchers said, is a combination of things, including euphoric investment sentiment, extended valuations and anticipation that inflation and supply-chain disruptions will weigh on corporate margins.\nIn a Wednesday note, strategists at BofA Securities said they saw little to be excited about, asking, “What good news is left?” They added, “A lot of optimism is already priced in.”\nIn the note, the Bank of America team led by Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, moved its year-end price target for the S&P 500 price to 4250—a 4.7% reduction from the 4458.58 level at which the benchmark index closed Friday. For 2022, Bank of America set a 4600 price target for the end of the year.\nThe analysts’ cautious outlook for U.S. stocks presents a contrast to the so-called TINA—or “There Is No Alternative”—motto that has dominated investors’ outlook for much of the past year. Because yields on other assets such as bonds have been so low, many investors have justified their continuous bullish positioning in stocks.Accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve has provided a continuous boost for equities this year, too, as has the lure of big investment returns from a swath of companies, ranging from meme stocks to Covid-19 beneficiaries.\nIn their September notes, however, some strategists said they were looking at other parts of the market for future gains. In a note last week, Morgan Stanley strategists wrote that they were downgrading their rating on U.S. equities to “underweight,” saying they prefer stocks in Europe and Japan and view cash as increasingly attractive to hold.\n“We expect an understandable level of eye-rolling as we move overweight cash,” the Morgan Stanley team including Andrew Sheets wrote in the note, adding the caveat that select international equities and other assets are attractive relative to cash. The note continued, “Morgan Stanley strategists forecast cash to outperform U.S. equities, government bonds and credit over the next 12 months.”\nParts of Morgan Stanley’s forecast are being put to work at New York Life Investments, the investment arm of New York Life Insurance Co. with more than $600 billion in assets under management.\nIn its investment portfolio, the firm currently has an overweight position in international developed equity. Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said there has been more economic upside in Europe and Canada—two areas in which the firm has increased its investments.\nDomestically, Ms. Goodwin says she believes the best days for some portions of the market are likely behind us. Still, she says it is too early for investors to go fully defensive. She said the investment firm expects some value and small-cap companies to continue to perform well.\n“The way we’re positioning our portfolios is that we are sticking with the reopening trade but believe...investors will have to invest more time and effort into finding quality companies that will continue to see earnings expansion,” said Ms. Goodwin.\nAlready there have been signs of weakness within the U.S. stock market in recent trading sessions. All three major indexes declined last week and are currently down for the month. The trend, if continued, would mark the first monthly loss for the S&P 500 since January. In general, September tends to be a historically weak period for the U.S. stock market. This year, in particular, investors are entering the choppy period with uncertainty.\nIn the week ahead, investors will be parsing the latest inflation data that will come from the Labor Department’s consumer-price index, due out Tuesday. They will also be on the lookout for any fresh commentary from central bankers on their views of when the Fed will pull back on its asset-buying stimulus program. Some investors and analysts see the tightening of monetary policy as a potential risk for stocks.\nIn a note last week, analysts at Citi Research said they see another risk for the market: the concern that current bullish positioning could amplify a market selloff. Such long positions on the S&P 500 outnumber shorts 10 to 1, a team of analysts including Chris Montagu wrote, adding that around half of long positions would be in a loss situation if the benchmark index moved below 4435, less than 1% away from Friday’s closing level.\n“That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down,” the Citi note said.\nThis month’s alarm bells from analysts aren’t the first to be sounded during the current bull market. Throughout 2021, wide-ranging market observers on Wall Street have raised concerns about signs of excess in the market, and investors have periodically braced for a pullback.\nStill, U.S. stocks have largely kept rising, even in the midst of periodic stretches of declines. On Friday the S&P 500 fell for a fifth consecutive session, its longest losing streak since February, to post a 1.7% loss for the week.\nThe last time the benchmark index had a weekly loss around that size was the week ended June 18, when it fell 1.9% for the week. The index then went on to rally 4.9% over the next three weeks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1671,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":23,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

U.S. Stock Market Faces Risk of Bumpy Autumn, Wall Street Analysts Warn<blockquote>华尔街分析师警告美国股市面临跌跌撞撞的风险</blockquote>

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