If they are not greedy, you bu_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

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2021-09-09

If they are not greedy, you buy

Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋季持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote>

A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th

Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋季持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote>

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Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋季持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.<blockquote>两位华尔街策略师刚刚对今年秋季股市前景持谨慎态度。他们加入了一个日益壮大的合唱团。</blockquote> The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.<blockquote>宏观市场专家一如既往地看好正在进行的经济复苏，但对股市的看法就不那么乐观了。美联储缩减购债规模、政治戏剧和昂贵的估值都可能导致今年秋天的股市陷入困境。</blockquote> Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.<blockquote>摩根士丹利首席跨资产策略师安德鲁·希茨(Andrew Sheets)认为未来几个月将“坎坷”，因此将美股评级下调至相当于卖出。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)美国股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)发布了两个标普500目标，这意味着近期将出现亏损，并且到明年年底市场充其量将持平。</blockquote> “Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.<blockquote>“投资者情绪和估值都在扩大——很多乐观情绪已经被消化——我们的长期估值模型表明，自科技泡沫以来，未来十年标普500首次出现负回报（年化回报率为-0.8%），”她写道。</blockquote> Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.<blockquote>Subramanian预计，今年年底标普500将降至4250点，较目前4500点左右的水平下降约6%。她预计该指数到2022年底将反弹至4600点，较今天仅上涨2%。</blockquote> Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚衡量投资者情绪的指标——一个反向指标——正在发出兴奋的信号，而此时她正开始担心利润率和盈利增长。她指出，供应链中断以及工资和投入成本的通胀是盈利能力面临的阻力。除此之外：来年利率可能会更高而不是更低——这会影响估值倍数——而且萨勃拉曼尼亚在标普500指数水平上没有太多值得喜欢的地方。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source:FactSet<blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote> Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>Sheets预计，美联储将在本月晚些时候宣布开始减少每月资产购买的计划，官员们还将更新他们所谓的未来利率预测“点阵图”，以显示加息步伐快于预期。Sheets认为，这些应该会推高美国国债收益率，给美国股市带来压力。</blockquote> Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.<blockquote>国会关于传统和“社会”基础设施法案的争论——以及潜在的更高的公司税和个人税——将在未来几周产生一些负面头条新闻。希茨写道，当前周期的经济和盈利增长率可能已经见顶。</blockquote> Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.<blockquote>展望未来，他认为事情会以两种方式发展：更多的财政刺激，更少的新冠肺炎，以及美国经济持续快速增长将鼓励美联储收紧政策，推高收益率，降低股市。或者，增长放缓将对昂贵的股票构成挑战，并可能引发“增长恐慌”抛售。</blockquote> Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.<blockquote>不管怎样，这意味着股市回报为负，而Sheets更喜欢欧洲和日本股票而不是标普500。大摩策略师将2022年中期标普500目标定为4225点，较目前下跌约6%。</blockquote> “This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”<blockquote>“这是一个正常的困境，”希茨写道。“在衰退后最初的反弹之后，增长通常会放缓。随着需求上升和劳动力市场收紧，经济改善通常会带来更多的成本压力和通胀。这通常意味着央行转向收紧政策。”</blockquote> That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.<blockquote>这并不是说经济衰退即将来临或盈利将会下降。这只是周期中的一个新阶段，也是一个股票平均表现不佳的阶段。</blockquote> Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚对此表示同意：“这种环境有利于利率、通胀和面向美国经济增长的公司，”她写道。“尽管我们对股市的前景更加谨慎，但我们认为市场的几个领域也处于有利地位：购买通胀保值收益率和美国小盘股。”</blockquote> Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.<blockquote>当经济增长强劲时，小盘股往往表现良好，Subramanian认为未来一年政府增加基础设施支出和企业资本支出投资可能带来好处。此外，相对估值比大盘股便宜，使得小盘股的提振作用较小。</blockquote> The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.<blockquote>根据彭博社的数据，小盘股罗素2000指数目前的市盈率约为未来12个月预期市盈率的29倍，而过去25年的平均市盈率约为27.5倍。相比之下，标普500目前的预期市盈率超过22倍，长期平均市盈率约为17倍。</blockquote> Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”<blockquote>通胀保值收益率意味着股息增长型股票。萨勃拉曼尼亚写道：“债券提供没有通胀保护的收益率，大宗商品提供通胀风险但没有收益率。”“股票位于中间：与债券收益率不同，收益是名义上的，并随着通货膨胀而增长。”</blockquote> In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚特别喜欢能源、金融和材料等行业的股息增长股票，这些股票将受益于经济增长和高于平均水平的通胀。</blockquote> Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.<blockquote>据报道，其中可能包括美国银行（股票代码：BAC）、花旗集团（C）、纽蒙特公司（NEM）、EOG Resources（EOG）或先锋自然资源公司（PXD）巴伦周刊筛选这些行业中股息增长的股票。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋季持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋季持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-09-09 10:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.<blockquote>两位华尔街策略师刚刚对今年秋季股市前景持谨慎态度。他们加入了一个日益壮大的合唱团。</blockquote> The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.<blockquote>宏观市场专家一如既往地看好正在进行的经济复苏，但对股市的看法就不那么乐观了。美联储缩减购债规模、政治戏剧和昂贵的估值都可能导致今年秋天的股市陷入困境。</blockquote> Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.<blockquote>摩根士丹利首席跨资产策略师安德鲁·希茨(Andrew Sheets)认为未来几个月将“坎坷”，因此将美股评级下调至相当于卖出。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)美国股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)发布了两个标普500目标，这意味着近期将出现亏损，并且到明年年底市场充其量将持平。</blockquote> “Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.<blockquote>“投资者情绪和估值都在扩大——很多乐观情绪已经被消化——我们的长期估值模型表明，自科技泡沫以来，未来十年标普500首次出现负回报（年化回报率为-0.8%），”她写道。</blockquote> Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.<blockquote>Subramanian预计，今年年底标普500将降至4250点，较目前4500点左右的水平下降约6%。她预计该指数到2022年底将反弹至4600点，较今天仅上涨2%。</blockquote> Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚衡量投资者情绪的指标——一个反向指标——正在发出兴奋的信号，而此时她正开始担心利润率和盈利增长。她指出，供应链中断以及工资和投入成本的通胀是盈利能力面临的阻力。除此之外：来年利率可能会更高而不是更低——这会影响估值倍数——而且萨勃拉曼尼亚在标普500指数水平上没有太多值得喜欢的地方。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source:FactSet<blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote> Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>Sheets预计，美联储将在本月晚些时候宣布开始减少每月资产购买的计划，官员们还将更新他们所谓的未来利率预测“点阵图”，以显示加息步伐快于预期。Sheets认为，这些应该会推高美国国债收益率，给美国股市带来压力。</blockquote> Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.<blockquote>国会关于传统和“社会”基础设施法案的争论——以及潜在的更高的公司税和个人税——将在未来几周产生一些负面头条新闻。希茨写道，当前周期的经济和盈利增长率可能已经见顶。</blockquote> Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.<blockquote>展望未来，他认为事情会以两种方式发展：更多的财政刺激，更少的新冠肺炎，以及美国经济持续快速增长将鼓励美联储收紧政策，推高收益率，降低股市。或者，增长放缓将对昂贵的股票构成挑战，并可能引发“增长恐慌”抛售。</blockquote> Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.<blockquote>不管怎样，这意味着股市回报为负，而Sheets更喜欢欧洲和日本股票而不是标普500。大摩策略师将2022年中期标普500目标定为4225点，较目前下跌约6%。</blockquote> “This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”<blockquote>“这是一个正常的困境，”希茨写道。“在衰退后最初的反弹之后，增长通常会放缓。随着需求上升和劳动力市场收紧，经济改善通常会带来更多的成本压力和通胀。这通常意味着央行转向收紧政策。”</blockquote> That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.<blockquote>这并不是说经济衰退即将来临或盈利将会下降。这只是周期中的一个新阶段，也是一个股票平均表现不佳的阶段。</blockquote> Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚对此表示同意：“这种环境有利于利率、通胀和面向美国经济增长的公司，”她写道。“尽管我们对股市的前景更加谨慎，但我们认为市场的几个领域也处于有利地位：购买通胀保值收益率和美国小盘股。”</blockquote> Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.<blockquote>当经济增长强劲时，小盘股往往表现良好，Subramanian认为未来一年政府增加基础设施支出和企业资本支出投资可能带来好处。此外，相对估值比大盘股便宜，使得小盘股的提振作用较小。</blockquote> The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.<blockquote>根据彭博社的数据，小盘股罗素2000指数目前的市盈率约为未来12个月预期市盈率的29倍，而过去25年的平均市盈率约为27.5倍。相比之下，标普500目前的预期市盈率超过22倍，长期平均市盈率约为17倍。</blockquote> Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”<blockquote>通胀保值收益率意味着股息增长型股票。萨勃拉曼尼亚写道：“债券提供没有通胀保护的收益率，大宗商品提供通胀风险但没有收益率。”“股票位于中间：与债券收益率不同，收益是名义上的，并随着通货膨胀而增长。”</blockquote> In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚特别喜欢能源、金融和材料等行业的股息增长股票，这些股票将受益于经济增长和高于平均水平的通胀。</blockquote> Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.<blockquote>据报道，其中可能包括美国银行（股票代码：BAC）、花旗集团（C）、纽蒙特公司（NEM）、EOG Resources（EOG）或先锋自然资源公司（PXD）巴伦周刊筛选这些行业中股息增长的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1440,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.<blockquote>华尔街策略师对今年秋季持谨慎态度。他们为什么担心。</blockquote>

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