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2021-09-08

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85% Of High Yield Bonds Have A Negative Real Yield<blockquote>85%的高收益债券实际收益率为负</blockquote>

Ahead of the publication of his periodic long-term study which is coming out next week, Deutsche Ban

85% Of High Yield Bonds Have A Negative Real Yield<blockquote>85%的高收益债券实际收益率为负</blockquote>

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(6.75% p.a. nominal). Well, not any more: the index currently sports a nominal yield of just 3.87% and with headline CPI at 5.4%, Reid says that we are seeing anegative gap of -1.53% between the two - around 6% below the long run excess real return.\"This pretty much ensures that historical returns are absolutely no template for the future\",according to the DB strategist.<blockquote>里德利用美国高收益市场25年的数据发现，过去25年的年实际回报率为4.48%。（名义年回报率为6.75%）。好吧，不再是了：该指数目前的名义收益率仅为3.87%，总体CPI为5.4%，里德表示，我们正在看到两者之间的负差距为-1.53%，比长期超额实际回报低约6%。\"这几乎确保了历史回报绝对不是未来的模板”，根据DB策略师的说法。</blockquote> Reid then shares the following chart showing that a \"stunning\" 85% of the US HY market has a yield below the current rate of inflation. While that proportion has been elevated for a few months now ever since the advent of the Fed's covid response policy,it had never been above 10%, and rarely been much above zero. In fact, at the end of last year it was less than 4%.<blockquote>Reid随后分享了下面的图表，显示美国HY市场85%的收益率低于当前通胀率。尽管自美联储新冠疫情应对政策出台以来，这一比例已经上升了几个月，它从未超过10%，也很少远高于零。事实上，去年年底还不到4%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61416447137d46a482b957c808bb1adf\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"419\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> While many expect CPI to start descending over the coming months, \"it will likely stay elevated for many quarters to come\" according to Reid, jeopardizing the Fed's \"transitory\" narrative. Yet even at 3%, CPI would still be above 35% of the US HY market by yield.<blockquote>里德表示，尽管许多人预计CPI将在未来几个月开始下降，但“未来许多季度它可能会保持在高位”，这危及了美联储的“暂时性”叙事。然而，即使为3%，按收益率计算，CPI仍将高于美国HY市场的35%。</blockquote> As Reid concludes, \"Financial repression has indeed stretched a long way down the credit curve and you have to take more and more risk to beat inflation these days. Indeed the current yield on US single-Bs is 4.3% and on CCCs 7.1%.\"<blockquote>正如里德总结的那样，“金融抑制确实在信贷曲线上延伸了很长一段时间，如今你必须承担越来越多的风险才能战胜通胀。事实上，目前美国单一债券的收益率为4.3%，CCC的收益率为7.1%。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>85% Of High Yield Bonds Have A Negative Real Yield<blockquote>85%的高收益债券实际收益率为负</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n85% Of High Yield Bonds Have A Negative Real Yield<blockquote>85%的高收益债券实际收益率为负</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-08 20:50\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAhead of the publication of his periodic long-term study which is coming out next week, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid has shared some advance highlights including one remarkable chart.<blockquote>在下周发布定期长期研究之前，德意志银行的吉姆·里德分享了一些预先亮点，包括一张引人注目的图表。</blockquote> Using 25 years of data for the US high yield market, Reid finds that the annual real return over the last quarter of a century has been 4.48% p.a. (6.75% p.a. nominal). Well, not any more: the index currently sports a nominal yield of just 3.87% and with headline CPI at 5.4%, Reid says that we are seeing anegative gap of -1.53% between the two - around 6% below the long run excess real return.\"This pretty much ensures that historical returns are absolutely no template for the future\",according to the DB strategist.<blockquote>里德利用美国高收益市场25年的数据发现，过去25年的年实际回报率为4.48%。（名义年回报率为6.75%）。好吧，不再是了：该指数目前的名义收益率仅为3.87%，总体CPI为5.4%，里德表示，我们正在看到两者之间的负差距为-1.53%，比长期超额实际回报低约6%。\"这几乎确保了历史回报绝对不是未来的模板”，根据DB策略师的说法。</blockquote> Reid then shares the following chart showing that a \"stunning\" 85% of the US HY market has a yield below the current rate of inflation. While that proportion has been elevated for a few months now ever since the advent of the Fed's covid response policy,it had never been above 10%, and rarely been much above zero. In fact, at the end of last year it was less than 4%.<blockquote>Reid随后分享了下面的图表，显示美国HY市场85%的收益率低于当前通胀率。尽管自美联储新冠疫情应对政策出台以来，这一比例已经上升了几个月，它从未超过10%，也很少远高于零。事实上，去年年底还不到4%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61416447137d46a482b957c808bb1adf\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"419\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> While many expect CPI to start descending over the coming months, \"it will likely stay elevated for many quarters to come\" according to Reid, jeopardizing the Fed's \"transitory\" narrative. Yet even at 3%, CPI would still be above 35% of the US HY market by yield.<blockquote>里德表示，尽管许多人预计CPI将在未来几个月开始下降，但“未来许多季度它可能会保持在高位”，这危及了美联储的“暂时性”叙事。然而，即使为3%，按收益率计算，CPI仍将高于美国HY市场的35%。</blockquote> As Reid concludes, \"Financial repression has indeed stretched a long way down the credit curve and you have to take more and more risk to beat inflation these days. Indeed the current yield on US single-Bs is 4.3% and on CCCs 7.1%.\"<blockquote>正如里德总结的那样，“金融抑制确实在信贷曲线上延伸了很长一段时间，如今你必须承担越来越多的风险才能战胜通胀。事实上，目前美国单一债券的收益率为4.3%，CCC的收益率为7.1%。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/85-high-yield-bonds-have-negative-real-yield\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/85-high-yield-bonds-have-negative-real-yield","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189790306","content_text":"Ahead of the publication of his periodic long-term study which is coming out next week, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid has shared some advance highlights including one remarkable chart.\nUsing 25 years of data for the US high yield market, Reid finds that the annual real return over the last quarter of a century has been 4.48% p.a. (6.75% p.a. nominal). Well, not any more: the index currently sports a nominal yield of just 3.87% and with headline CPI at 5.4%, Reid says that we are seeing anegative gap of -1.53% between the two - around 6% below the long run excess real return.\"This pretty much ensures that historical returns are absolutely no template for the future\",according to the DB strategist.\nReid then shares the following chart showing that a \"stunning\" 85% of the US HY market has a yield below the current rate of inflation. While that proportion has been elevated for a few months now ever since the advent of the Fed's covid response policy,it had never been above 10%, and rarely been much above zero. In fact, at the end of last year it was less than 4%.\n\nWhile many expect CPI to start descending over the coming months, \"it will likely stay elevated for many quarters to come\" according to Reid, jeopardizing the Fed's \"transitory\" narrative. Yet even at 3%, CPI would still be above 35% of the US HY market by yield.\nAs Reid concludes, \"Financial repression has indeed stretched a long way down the credit curve and you have to take more and more risk to beat inflation these days. Indeed the current yield on US single-Bs is 4.3% and on CCCs 7.1%.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3712,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

85% Of High Yield Bonds Have A Negative Real Yield<blockquote>85%的高收益债券实际收益率为负</blockquote>

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