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2021-08-04

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3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is Currently Overvalued<blockquote>特斯拉股票目前被高估的3个原因</blockquote>

Summary: After a remarkable rally last year, Tesla stock has lost its momentum. The stock’s tepid r

3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is Currently Overvalued<blockquote>特斯拉股票目前被高估的3个原因</blockquote>

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The stock no longer reacts wildly to every positive development, disappointing investors who made fortunes while staying faithful to the world’s largest electric car-maker.<blockquote><ul><li>经过去年的显着上涨后，特斯拉股价已经失去了动力。</li><li>该股对令人印象深刻的第二季度盈利反应不温不火，表明牛市正在减弱。</li><li>芯片短缺、竞争加剧可能会让特斯拉今年面临压力。</li></ul>最近，特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的股票似乎失去了魔力。该股不再对每一个积极的发展做出疯狂的反应，这让那些在忠于这家全球最大电动汽车制造商的同时发财的投资者感到失望。</blockquote> The latest example of this dampening optimism came when Tesla announced itsquarterly earningson July 26. The company’s shares fell more than 4% after the earnings report, which handedly beat analysts’ consensus estimates.<blockquote>这种令人沮丧的乐观情绪的最新例子是特斯拉7月26日公布的季度收益。财报发布后，该公司股价下跌超过4%，大幅超出分析师普遍预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1d0e8a03c4269ff0c91bcaaf57e87d\" tg-width=\"1412\" tg-height=\"1172\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Tesla Weekly Chart.<blockquote>特斯拉周线图。</blockquote> During the quarter, in which the California-based car-maker produced a record 201,250 vehicles, its profit more than tripled to $1.45 a share on an adjusted basis, beating the $0.97 average analysts had estimated. It was also the company’s eighth straight profitable quarter.<blockquote>本季度，这家总部位于加州的汽车制造商生产了创纪录的201,250辆汽车，调整后的利润增长了两倍多，达到每股1.45美元，超过了分析师平均预期的0.97美元。这也是该公司连续第八个季度盈利。</blockquote> Tesla's net income in the second quarter was roughly equal to the prior four quarters combined. The company reported revenue of roughly $12 billion for the period that ended June 30, nearly double the amount in the corresponding period a year earlier.<blockquote>特斯拉第二季度的净利润大致相当于前四个季度的总和。该公司报告截至6月30日的期间收入约为120亿美元，几乎是去年同期的两倍。</blockquote> Despite this strong earnings momentum, the stock didn’t jump the way it once did on every shred of positive news. TSLA is up less than 6% during the past five days as of yesterday's close. From its record high in January, Tesla shares are down almost 23%.<blockquote>尽管盈利势头强劲，但该股并没有像以前那样因每一个利好消息而上涨。截至昨天收盘，特斯拉在过去五天内上涨了不到6%。特斯拉股价较1月份的历史高点下跌了近23%。</blockquote> So, what’s prompting investors to shun this market tech darling, even when its financials have shown a great turnaround?<blockquote>那么，是什么促使投资者回避这个市场科技宠儿，即使它的财务状况已经显示出巨大的好转呢？</blockquote> As we see it, there are both short- and long-term factors at play, causing Tesla enthusiasts to move to the sidelines. Here are three key catalysts that make this EV stalwart a risky bet right now, supporting our view that Tesla is not a buy in this environment:<blockquote>正如我们所看到的，有短期和长期因素在起作用，导致特斯拉爱好者转向观望。以下三个关键催化剂使这家电动汽车巨头目前成为一个冒险的赌注，支持我们的观点，即特斯拉在这种环境下不值得买入：</blockquote> 1. Chip Shortages<blockquote>一、芯片短缺</blockquote> The global chip shortages that have hurt production for many car-makers is beginning to pinch Tesla as well. During its earnings call, Tesla told investors that the company's future pace of growth won't be able to escape the ongoing supply-chain challenges.<blockquote>全球芯片短缺损害了许多汽车制造商的生产，也开始对特斯拉造成压力。在财报看涨期权上，特斯拉告诉投资者，公司未来的增长速度将无法逃脱持续的供应链挑战。</blockquote> The company, for example, is struggling to introduce new models and secure parts for all its vehicles. Tesla again delayed its semi-trailer truck—already two years late—with first deliveries now slated for 2022. The company attributed the delay to supply-chain issues and limited battery-cell supply, as well as trying to focus on getting new factories online.<blockquote>例如，该公司正在努力推出新车型并确保所有车辆的零部件。特斯拉再次推迟了其半挂卡车的发布——已经晚了两年——首批交付预计于2022年进行。该公司将延迟归因于供应链问题和电池供应有限，以及试图专注于让新工厂上线。</blockquote> The company’s plans for its first pickup truck, once expected to go to customers as early as this year, are also being affected by parts issues, said Chief Executive Elon Musk on an earnings call, without giving a revised first delivery date.<blockquote>该公司首席执行官Elon Musk在财报看涨期权上表示，该公司首款皮卡的计划曾预计最早将于今年交付给客户，但也受到零部件问题的影响，但没有给出修改后的首次交付日期。</blockquote> How long chip-supply issues will persist is anybody’s guess right now. Chip-makers are trying to eke out more supply through changes to manufacturing processes and by opening up spare capacity to rivals, auditing customer orders to prevent hoarding and swapping over production lines, according to a recent report by theWall Street Journal. The bad news: there are no quick fixes, as building new production capacity usually takes years.<blockquote>现在谁也说不准芯片供应问题会持续多久。据《华尔街日报》最近的一篇报道，芯片制造商正试图通过改变制造工艺、向竞争对手开放闲置产能、审核客户订单以防止囤积和更换生产线来维持更多供应。坏消息是：没有快速解决方案，因为建设新产能通常需要数年时间。</blockquote> 2. Competition Heating Up<blockquote>2.竞争升温</blockquote> Another threat challenging Tesla’s dominance in the EV market is coming from new sources of competition. Overall, five of the biggest automakers—Daimler(OTC:DDAIF), Ford (NYSE:F),General Motors(NYSE:GM), Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) and Volkswagen (OTC:VWAGY)—have each laid out plans to spend an average $6.5 billion annually on electrification efforts over the next five to 10 years, according toBloomberg.<blockquote>挑战特斯拉在电动汽车市场主导地位的另一个威胁来自新的竞争来源。总体而言，五家最大的汽车制造商——戴姆勒(OTC：DDAIF)、福特(NYSE：F)、通用汽车(NYSE：GM)、Stellantis(NYSE：STLA)和大众汽车(OTC：VWAGY)——都制定了计划据彭博社报道，未来5到10年，平均每年在电气化方面花费65亿美元。</blockquote> In April, VW launched its new Audi Q4 e-tron model to compete with Tesla in the fast-growing market of compact crossover SUVs. The Audi’s EV model is among a dozen vehicles the German auto-maker has planned, including VW’s ID.4 and an electric version of the Porsche Macan. VW is aiming to sell roughly 600,000 purely battery-powered cars this year.<blockquote>4月，大众推出了新款奥迪Q4 e-tron车型，在快速增长的紧凑型跨界SUV市场与特斯拉竞争。奥迪的电动车型是这家德国汽车制造商计划推出的十几款汽车之一，其中包括大众的ID.4和保时捷Macan的电动版。大众汽车的目标是今年销售约60万辆纯电池驱动的汽车。</blockquote> While traditional auto-makers, like Volkswagen and GM accelerate their EV efforts, smaller Chinese upstarts like Nio (NYSE:NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) are also vying for tech-savvy customers.<blockquote>虽然大众汽车和通用汽车等传统汽车制造商正在加速电动汽车的发展，但蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）等规模较小的中国新贵也在争夺精通技术的客户。</blockquote> According to media reports, GM’s EV plans will accelerate starting later this year as a Hummer pickup truck and Cadillac Lyriq sport utility vehicle begin rolling off the Detroit carmaker's production lines. An electric Chevy Silverado pickup is also on the way.<blockquote>据媒体报道，随着悍马皮卡和凯迪拉克Lyriq运动型多功能车开始从底特律汽车制造商的生产线下线，通用汽车的电动汽车计划将从今年晚些时候开始加速。一款电动雪佛兰索罗德皮卡也即将上市。</blockquote> In China, GM’s lower-priced Hongguang Mini EV, which it’s producing with two state-owned companies, has been a hit. More than a quarter of a million of the models have been sold since the vehicle launched last July, outperforming international rivals like Tesla’s Model 3 and local competitors, including Great Wall's (OTC:GWLLY) Ora Black Cat.<blockquote>在中国，通用汽车与两家国有企业合作生产的价格较低的宏光迷你电动汽车大受欢迎。自去年7月推出以来，该车型已售出超过25万辆，表现优于特斯拉Model 3等国际竞争对手和长城（场外交易代码：GWLLY）奥拉黑猫等本地竞争对手。</blockquote> 3. Lofty Valuations<blockquote>3.高估值</blockquote> Tesla’s valuation has also been a major source of friction among Wall Street’s top analysts. Those who see Tesla as a highly overpriced stock argue that the company has no room to make an error when its stock is priced for perfection.<blockquote>特斯拉的估值也一直是华尔街顶级分析师之间摩擦的主要来源。那些认为特斯拉股票定价过高的人认为，当其股票定价完美时，该公司没有犯错的余地。</blockquote> JPMorgan, which has an underweight rating on Tesla with a price target of $160, said in a recent note:<blockquote>摩根大通对特斯拉给予跑输大盘评级，目标价为160美元，该公司在最近的一份报告中表示：</blockquote> “Tesla’s high valuation leaves little room for less-than-perfect execution, as evidenced by a relatively tepid reaction in the aftermarket Monday to what was a fairly sizable EBITA beat, and we did see some less than perfect takeaways, including the official delay of the Tesla Semi into 2022 (albeit likely already almost entirely baked in); the seeming delay of the Cybertruck from late 2021 into 2022 (likely mostly baked in).” Even after its recent selloff, Tesla has a $680-billion market capitalization, making it worth more than the combined value of GM, Ford, Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen.<blockquote>“特斯拉的高估值几乎没有给不完美的执行留下空间，周一售后市场对相当大的EBITA超出预期的反应相对不温不火就证明了这一点，我们确实看到了一些不太完美的收获，包括官方推迟特斯拉Semi到2022年（尽管可能已经几乎完全成熟）；Cybertruck似乎从2021年底推迟到2022年（可能大部分时间都是内置的）。”即使在最近的抛售之后，特斯拉的市值仍为6800亿美元，超过了通用汽车、福特、丰田汽车(NYSE：TM)和大众汽车的总价值。</blockquote> Bernstein Research, which has a sell rating on Tesla with a price target of $175, said in its note:<blockquote>Bernstein Research对特斯拉给予卖出评级，目标价为175美元，该公司在报告中表示：</blockquote> “We continue to struggle to justify TSLA’s valuation, which is higher than all other major automakers combined and appears to imply huge volume and industry leading profitability going forward, which is historically unprecedented.” These bearish views, however, shouldn’t hide the fact that many analysts believe Tesla is more than a car company and its stock has more upside.<blockquote>“我们继续努力证明特斯拉的估值是合理的，该估值高于所有其他主要汽车制造商的总和，似乎意味着未来巨大的销量和行业领先的盈利能力，这是历史上前所未有的。”然而，这些看跌观点不应掩盖这样一个事实：许多分析师认为特斯拉不仅仅是一家汽车公司，其股票还有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas says Tesla shouldn’t be valued as a legacy car-maker. As cars become more connected to the internet, that opens up a lot of other addressable markets and Tesla is well-positioned to take advantage of those new opportunities.<blockquote>Morgan Stanley的Adam Jonas表示，特斯拉不应被视为一家传统汽车制造商。随着汽车与互联网的连接越来越紧密，这开辟了许多其他潜在市场，特斯拉处于有利地位，可以利用这些新机遇。</blockquote> Said Jonas in a Bloomberg report:<blockquote>乔纳斯在彭博社的一篇报道中说：</blockquote> “In the process, it takes you away from comparing Tesla to car companies and should rather be compared to software-as-a-service companies.” This divergence is evident fromInvesting.compoll of analystsregarding Tesla’s share price. Of 35 analysts, 15 have a buy rating on the stock, while 12 have neutral ratings and eight have a sell recommendation, with a 12-month consensus price target of $730.59.<blockquote>“在这个过程中，它让你不再将特斯拉与汽车公司进行比较，而应该将其与软件即服务公司进行比较。”这种差异从Investing.com分析师对特斯拉股价的民意调查。在35名分析师中，15名分析师对该股给予买入评级，12名分析师给予中性评级，8名分析师给予卖出建议，12个月一致目标价为730.59美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e03552d09d605eee4bcfefd531f11080\" tg-width=\"1332\" tg-height=\"856\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart: Investing.com<blockquote>图表：Investing.com</blockquote> For investors, who look to technical signals to help make short-term investment decisions, the most popular indicators—moving averages, oscillators and pivots—are currently providing a buy signal, especially after Tesla’s strong earnings beat.<blockquote>对于寻求技术信号来帮助做出短期投资决策的投资者来说，最受欢迎的指标——移动平均线、振荡指标和支点——目前正在提供买入信号，尤其是在特斯拉强劲盈利超出预期之后。</blockquote> Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Tesla has remained the only credible player in the high-quality EV market in recent years, but that equation is changing quickly after the entry of new players and the massive spending plans being put forward by the legacy car-makers. These dynamics don’t justify the company’s current valuation, which assumes that Tesla will become the biggest seller of cars in the U.S., while competitors won’t be able to succeed.<blockquote>近年来，特斯拉仍然是高质量电动汽车市场上唯一可靠的参与者，但在新参与者的进入以及传统汽车制造商提出的大规模支出计划之后，这种情况正在迅速发生变化。这些动态并不能证明该公司目前的估值是合理的，该估值假设特斯拉将成为美国最大的汽车销售商，而竞争对手将无法成功。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is Currently Overvalued<blockquote>特斯拉股票目前被高估的3个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Tesla Stock Is Currently Overvalued<blockquote>特斯拉股票目前被高估的3个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nInvesting.com2021-08-04 14:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary:<blockquote>摘要：</blockquote> <ul> <li>After a remarkable rally last year, Tesla stock has lost its momentum.</li> <li>The stock’s tepid reaction to impressive Q2 earnings shows that the bull case is weakening.</li> <li>Chip shortages, rising competition could keep Tesla under pressure this year.</li> </ul> Lately, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares seem to have lost their magic. The stock no longer reacts wildly to every positive development, disappointing investors who made fortunes while staying faithful to the world’s largest electric car-maker.<blockquote><ul><li>经过去年的显着上涨后，特斯拉股价已经失去了动力。</li><li>该股对令人印象深刻的第二季度盈利反应不温不火，表明牛市正在减弱。</li><li>芯片短缺、竞争加剧可能会让特斯拉今年面临压力。</li></ul>最近，特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的股票似乎失去了魔力。该股不再对每一个积极的发展做出疯狂的反应，这让那些在忠于这家全球最大电动汽车制造商的同时发财的投资者感到失望。</blockquote> The latest example of this dampening optimism came when Tesla announced itsquarterly earningson July 26. The company’s shares fell more than 4% after the earnings report, which handedly beat analysts’ consensus estimates.<blockquote>这种令人沮丧的乐观情绪的最新例子是特斯拉7月26日公布的季度收益。财报发布后，该公司股价下跌超过4%，大幅超出分析师普遍预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1d0e8a03c4269ff0c91bcaaf57e87d\" tg-width=\"1412\" tg-height=\"1172\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Tesla Weekly Chart.<blockquote>特斯拉周线图。</blockquote> During the quarter, in which the California-based car-maker produced a record 201,250 vehicles, its profit more than tripled to $1.45 a share on an adjusted basis, beating the $0.97 average analysts had estimated. It was also the company’s eighth straight profitable quarter.<blockquote>本季度，这家总部位于加州的汽车制造商生产了创纪录的201,250辆汽车，调整后的利润增长了两倍多，达到每股1.45美元，超过了分析师平均预期的0.97美元。这也是该公司连续第八个季度盈利。</blockquote> Tesla's net income in the second quarter was roughly equal to the prior four quarters combined. The company reported revenue of roughly $12 billion for the period that ended June 30, nearly double the amount in the corresponding period a year earlier.<blockquote>特斯拉第二季度的净利润大致相当于前四个季度的总和。该公司报告截至6月30日的期间收入约为120亿美元，几乎是去年同期的两倍。</blockquote> Despite this strong earnings momentum, the stock didn’t jump the way it once did on every shred of positive news. TSLA is up less than 6% during the past five days as of yesterday's close. From its record high in January, Tesla shares are down almost 23%.<blockquote>尽管盈利势头强劲，但该股并没有像以前那样因每一个利好消息而上涨。截至昨天收盘，特斯拉在过去五天内上涨了不到6%。特斯拉股价较1月份的历史高点下跌了近23%。</blockquote> So, what’s prompting investors to shun this market tech darling, even when its financials have shown a great turnaround?<blockquote>那么，是什么促使投资者回避这个市场科技宠儿，即使它的财务状况已经显示出巨大的好转呢？</blockquote> As we see it, there are both short- and long-term factors at play, causing Tesla enthusiasts to move to the sidelines. Here are three key catalysts that make this EV stalwart a risky bet right now, supporting our view that Tesla is not a buy in this environment:<blockquote>正如我们所看到的，有短期和长期因素在起作用，导致特斯拉爱好者转向观望。以下三个关键催化剂使这家电动汽车巨头目前成为一个冒险的赌注，支持我们的观点，即特斯拉在这种环境下不值得买入：</blockquote> 1. Chip Shortages<blockquote>一、芯片短缺</blockquote> The global chip shortages that have hurt production for many car-makers is beginning to pinch Tesla as well. During its earnings call, Tesla told investors that the company's future pace of growth won't be able to escape the ongoing supply-chain challenges.<blockquote>全球芯片短缺损害了许多汽车制造商的生产，也开始对特斯拉造成压力。在财报看涨期权上，特斯拉告诉投资者，公司未来的增长速度将无法逃脱持续的供应链挑战。</blockquote> The company, for example, is struggling to introduce new models and secure parts for all its vehicles. Tesla again delayed its semi-trailer truck—already two years late—with first deliveries now slated for 2022. The company attributed the delay to supply-chain issues and limited battery-cell supply, as well as trying to focus on getting new factories online.<blockquote>例如，该公司正在努力推出新车型并确保所有车辆的零部件。特斯拉再次推迟了其半挂卡车的发布——已经晚了两年——首批交付预计于2022年进行。该公司将延迟归因于供应链问题和电池供应有限，以及试图专注于让新工厂上线。</blockquote> The company’s plans for its first pickup truck, once expected to go to customers as early as this year, are also being affected by parts issues, said Chief Executive Elon Musk on an earnings call, without giving a revised first delivery date.<blockquote>该公司首席执行官Elon Musk在财报看涨期权上表示，该公司首款皮卡的计划曾预计最早将于今年交付给客户，但也受到零部件问题的影响，但没有给出修改后的首次交付日期。</blockquote> How long chip-supply issues will persist is anybody’s guess right now. Chip-makers are trying to eke out more supply through changes to manufacturing processes and by opening up spare capacity to rivals, auditing customer orders to prevent hoarding and swapping over production lines, according to a recent report by theWall Street Journal. The bad news: there are no quick fixes, as building new production capacity usually takes years.<blockquote>现在谁也说不准芯片供应问题会持续多久。据《华尔街日报》最近的一篇报道，芯片制造商正试图通过改变制造工艺、向竞争对手开放闲置产能、审核客户订单以防止囤积和更换生产线来维持更多供应。坏消息是：没有快速解决方案，因为建设新产能通常需要数年时间。</blockquote> 2. Competition Heating Up<blockquote>2.竞争升温</blockquote> Another threat challenging Tesla’s dominance in the EV market is coming from new sources of competition. Overall, five of the biggest automakers—Daimler(OTC:DDAIF), Ford (NYSE:F),General Motors(NYSE:GM), Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) and Volkswagen (OTC:VWAGY)—have each laid out plans to spend an average $6.5 billion annually on electrification efforts over the next five to 10 years, according toBloomberg.<blockquote>挑战特斯拉在电动汽车市场主导地位的另一个威胁来自新的竞争来源。总体而言，五家最大的汽车制造商——戴姆勒(OTC：DDAIF)、福特(NYSE：F)、通用汽车(NYSE：GM)、Stellantis(NYSE：STLA)和大众汽车(OTC：VWAGY)——都制定了计划据彭博社报道，未来5到10年，平均每年在电气化方面花费65亿美元。</blockquote> In April, VW launched its new Audi Q4 e-tron model to compete with Tesla in the fast-growing market of compact crossover SUVs. The Audi’s EV model is among a dozen vehicles the German auto-maker has planned, including VW’s ID.4 and an electric version of the Porsche Macan. VW is aiming to sell roughly 600,000 purely battery-powered cars this year.<blockquote>4月，大众推出了新款奥迪Q4 e-tron车型，在快速增长的紧凑型跨界SUV市场与特斯拉竞争。奥迪的电动车型是这家德国汽车制造商计划推出的十几款汽车之一，其中包括大众的ID.4和保时捷Macan的电动版。大众汽车的目标是今年销售约60万辆纯电池驱动的汽车。</blockquote> While traditional auto-makers, like Volkswagen and GM accelerate their EV efforts, smaller Chinese upstarts like Nio (NYSE:NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) are also vying for tech-savvy customers.<blockquote>虽然大众汽车和通用汽车等传统汽车制造商正在加速电动汽车的发展，但蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）等规模较小的中国新贵也在争夺精通技术的客户。</blockquote> According to media reports, GM’s EV plans will accelerate starting later this year as a Hummer pickup truck and Cadillac Lyriq sport utility vehicle begin rolling off the Detroit carmaker's production lines. An electric Chevy Silverado pickup is also on the way.<blockquote>据媒体报道，随着悍马皮卡和凯迪拉克Lyriq运动型多功能车开始从底特律汽车制造商的生产线下线，通用汽车的电动汽车计划将从今年晚些时候开始加速。一款电动雪佛兰索罗德皮卡也即将上市。</blockquote> In China, GM’s lower-priced Hongguang Mini EV, which it’s producing with two state-owned companies, has been a hit. More than a quarter of a million of the models have been sold since the vehicle launched last July, outperforming international rivals like Tesla’s Model 3 and local competitors, including Great Wall's (OTC:GWLLY) Ora Black Cat.<blockquote>在中国，通用汽车与两家国有企业合作生产的价格较低的宏光迷你电动汽车大受欢迎。自去年7月推出以来，该车型已售出超过25万辆，表现优于特斯拉Model 3等国际竞争对手和长城（场外交易代码：GWLLY）奥拉黑猫等本地竞争对手。</blockquote> 3. Lofty Valuations<blockquote>3.高估值</blockquote> Tesla’s valuation has also been a major source of friction among Wall Street’s top analysts. Those who see Tesla as a highly overpriced stock argue that the company has no room to make an error when its stock is priced for perfection.<blockquote>特斯拉的估值也一直是华尔街顶级分析师之间摩擦的主要来源。那些认为特斯拉股票定价过高的人认为，当其股票定价完美时，该公司没有犯错的余地。</blockquote> JPMorgan, which has an underweight rating on Tesla with a price target of $160, said in a recent note:<blockquote>摩根大通对特斯拉给予跑输大盘评级，目标价为160美元，该公司在最近的一份报告中表示：</blockquote> “Tesla’s high valuation leaves little room for less-than-perfect execution, as evidenced by a relatively tepid reaction in the aftermarket Monday to what was a fairly sizable EBITA beat, and we did see some less than perfect takeaways, including the official delay of the Tesla Semi into 2022 (albeit likely already almost entirely baked in); the seeming delay of the Cybertruck from late 2021 into 2022 (likely mostly baked in).” Even after its recent selloff, Tesla has a $680-billion market capitalization, making it worth more than the combined value of GM, Ford, Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen.<blockquote>“特斯拉的高估值几乎没有给不完美的执行留下空间，周一售后市场对相当大的EBITA超出预期的反应相对不温不火就证明了这一点，我们确实看到了一些不太完美的收获，包括官方推迟特斯拉Semi到2022年（尽管可能已经几乎完全成熟）；Cybertruck似乎从2021年底推迟到2022年（可能大部分时间都是内置的）。”即使在最近的抛售之后，特斯拉的市值仍为6800亿美元，超过了通用汽车、福特、丰田汽车(NYSE：TM)和大众汽车的总价值。</blockquote> Bernstein Research, which has a sell rating on Tesla with a price target of $175, said in its note:<blockquote>Bernstein Research对特斯拉给予卖出评级，目标价为175美元，该公司在报告中表示：</blockquote> “We continue to struggle to justify TSLA’s valuation, which is higher than all other major automakers combined and appears to imply huge volume and industry leading profitability going forward, which is historically unprecedented.” These bearish views, however, shouldn’t hide the fact that many analysts believe Tesla is more than a car company and its stock has more upside.<blockquote>“我们继续努力证明特斯拉的估值是合理的，该估值高于所有其他主要汽车制造商的总和，似乎意味着未来巨大的销量和行业领先的盈利能力，这是历史上前所未有的。”然而，这些看跌观点不应掩盖这样一个事实：许多分析师认为特斯拉不仅仅是一家汽车公司，其股票还有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas says Tesla shouldn’t be valued as a legacy car-maker. As cars become more connected to the internet, that opens up a lot of other addressable markets and Tesla is well-positioned to take advantage of those new opportunities.<blockquote>Morgan Stanley的Adam Jonas表示，特斯拉不应被视为一家传统汽车制造商。随着汽车与互联网的连接越来越紧密，这开辟了许多其他潜在市场，特斯拉处于有利地位，可以利用这些新机遇。</blockquote> Said Jonas in a Bloomberg report:<blockquote>乔纳斯在彭博社的一篇报道中说：</blockquote> “In the process, it takes you away from comparing Tesla to car companies and should rather be compared to software-as-a-service companies.” This divergence is evident fromInvesting.compoll of analystsregarding Tesla’s share price. Of 35 analysts, 15 have a buy rating on the stock, while 12 have neutral ratings and eight have a sell recommendation, with a 12-month consensus price target of $730.59.<blockquote>“在这个过程中，它让你不再将特斯拉与汽车公司进行比较，而应该将其与软件即服务公司进行比较。”这种差异从Investing.com分析师对特斯拉股价的民意调查。在35名分析师中，15名分析师对该股给予买入评级，12名分析师给予中性评级，8名分析师给予卖出建议，12个月一致目标价为730.59美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e03552d09d605eee4bcfefd531f11080\" tg-width=\"1332\" tg-height=\"856\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart: Investing.com<blockquote>图表：Investing.com</blockquote> For investors, who look to technical signals to help make short-term investment decisions, the most popular indicators—moving averages, oscillators and pivots—are currently providing a buy signal, especially after Tesla’s strong earnings beat.<blockquote>对于寻求技术信号来帮助做出短期投资决策的投资者来说，最受欢迎的指标——移动平均线、振荡指标和支点——目前正在提供买入信号，尤其是在特斯拉强劲盈利超出预期之后。</blockquote> Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Tesla has remained the only credible player in the high-quality EV market in recent years, but that equation is changing quickly after the entry of new players and the massive spending plans being put forward by the legacy car-makers. These dynamics don’t justify the company’s current valuation, which assumes that Tesla will become the biggest seller of cars in the U.S., while competitors won’t be able to succeed.<blockquote>近年来，特斯拉仍然是高质量电动汽车市场上唯一可靠的参与者，但在新参与者的进入以及传统汽车制造商提出的大规模支出计划之后，这种情况正在迅速发生变化。这些动态并不能证明该公司目前的估值是合理的，该估值假设特斯拉将成为美国最大的汽车销售商，而竞争对手将无法成功。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/3-reasons-tesla-stock-is-currently-overvalued-200595598\">Investing.com</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.investing.com/analysis/3-reasons-tesla-stock-is-currently-overvalued-200595598","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195860961","content_text":"Summary:\n\nAfter a remarkable rally last year, Tesla stock has lost its momentum.\nThe stock’s tepid reaction to impressive Q2 earnings shows that the bull case is weakening.\nChip shortages, rising competition could keep Tesla under pressure this year.\n\nLately, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares seem to have lost their magic. The stock no longer reacts wildly to every positive development, disappointing investors who made fortunes while staying faithful to the world’s largest electric car-maker.\nThe latest example of this dampening optimism came when Tesla announced itsquarterly earningson July 26. The company’s shares fell more than 4% after the earnings report, which handedly beat analysts’ consensus estimates.\nTesla Weekly Chart.\nDuring the quarter, in which the California-based car-maker produced a record 201,250 vehicles, its profit more than tripled to $1.45 a share on an adjusted basis, beating the $0.97 average analysts had estimated. It was also the company’s eighth straight profitable quarter.\nTesla's net income in the second quarter was roughly equal to the prior four quarters combined. The company reported revenue of roughly $12 billion for the period that ended June 30, nearly double the amount in the corresponding period a year earlier.\nDespite this strong earnings momentum, the stock didn’t jump the way it once did on every shred of positive news. TSLA is up less than 6% during the past five days as of yesterday's close. From its record high in January, Tesla shares are down almost 23%.\nSo, what’s prompting investors to shun this market tech darling, even when its financials have shown a great turnaround?\nAs we see it, there are both short- and long-term factors at play, causing Tesla enthusiasts to move to the sidelines. Here are three key catalysts that make this EV stalwart a risky bet right now, supporting our view that Tesla is not a buy in this environment:\n1. Chip Shortages\nThe global chip shortages that have hurt production for many car-makers is beginning to pinch Tesla as well. During its earnings call, Tesla told investors that the company's future pace of growth won't be able to escape the ongoing supply-chain challenges.\nThe company, for example, is struggling to introduce new models and secure parts for all its vehicles. Tesla again delayed its semi-trailer truck—already two years late—with first deliveries now slated for 2022. The company attributed the delay to supply-chain issues and limited battery-cell supply, as well as trying to focus on getting new factories online.\nThe company’s plans for its first pickup truck, once expected to go to customers as early as this year, are also being affected by parts issues, said Chief Executive Elon Musk on an earnings call, without giving a revised first delivery date.\nHow long chip-supply issues will persist is anybody’s guess right now. Chip-makers are trying to eke out more supply through changes to manufacturing processes and by opening up spare capacity to rivals, auditing customer orders to prevent hoarding and swapping over production lines, according to a recent report by theWall Street Journal. The bad news: there are no quick fixes, as building new production capacity usually takes years.\n2. Competition Heating Up\nAnother threat challenging Tesla’s dominance in the EV market is coming from new sources of competition. Overall, five of the biggest automakers—Daimler(OTC:DDAIF), Ford (NYSE:F),General Motors(NYSE:GM), Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) and Volkswagen (OTC:VWAGY)—have each laid out plans to spend an average $6.5 billion annually on electrification efforts over the next five to 10 years, according toBloomberg.\nIn April, VW launched its new Audi Q4 e-tron model to compete with Tesla in the fast-growing market of compact crossover SUVs. The Audi’s EV model is among a dozen vehicles the German auto-maker has planned, including VW’s ID.4 and an electric version of the Porsche Macan. VW is aiming to sell roughly 600,000 purely battery-powered cars this year.\nWhile traditional auto-makers, like Volkswagen and GM accelerate their EV efforts, smaller Chinese upstarts like Nio (NYSE:NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) are also vying for tech-savvy customers.\nAccording to media reports, GM’s EV plans will accelerate starting later this year as a Hummer pickup truck and Cadillac Lyriq sport utility vehicle begin rolling off the Detroit carmaker's production lines. An electric Chevy Silverado pickup is also on the way.\nIn China, GM’s lower-priced Hongguang Mini EV, which it’s producing with two state-owned companies, has been a hit. More than a quarter of a million of the models have been sold since the vehicle launched last July, outperforming international rivals like Tesla’s Model 3 and local competitors, including Great Wall's (OTC:GWLLY) Ora Black Cat.\n3. Lofty Valuations\nTesla’s valuation has also been a major source of friction among Wall Street’s top analysts. Those who see Tesla as a highly overpriced stock argue that the company has no room to make an error when its stock is priced for perfection.\nJPMorgan, which has an underweight rating on Tesla with a price target of $160, said in a recent note:\n\n “Tesla’s high valuation leaves little room for less-than-perfect execution, as evidenced by a relatively tepid reaction in the aftermarket Monday to what was a fairly sizable EBITA beat, and we did see some less than perfect takeaways, including the official delay of the Tesla Semi into 2022 (albeit likely already almost entirely baked in); the seeming delay of the Cybertruck from late 2021 into 2022 (likely mostly baked in).”\n\nEven after its recent selloff, Tesla has a $680-billion market capitalization, making it worth more than the combined value of GM, Ford, Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen.\nBernstein Research, which has a sell rating on Tesla with a price target of $175, said in its note:\n\n “We continue to struggle to justify TSLA’s valuation, which is higher than all other major automakers combined and appears to imply huge volume and industry leading profitability going forward, which is historically unprecedented.”\n\nThese bearish views, however, shouldn’t hide the fact that many analysts believe Tesla is more than a car company and its stock has more upside.\nMorgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas says Tesla shouldn’t be valued as a legacy car-maker. As cars become more connected to the internet, that opens up a lot of other addressable markets and Tesla is well-positioned to take advantage of those new opportunities.\nSaid Jonas in a Bloomberg report:\n\n “In the process, it takes you away from comparing Tesla to car companies and should rather be compared to software-as-a-service companies.”\n\nThis divergence is evident fromInvesting.compoll of analystsregarding Tesla’s share price. Of 35 analysts, 15 have a buy rating on the stock, while 12 have neutral ratings and eight have a sell recommendation, with a 12-month consensus price target of $730.59.\nChart: Investing.com\nFor investors, who look to technical signals to help make short-term investment decisions, the most popular indicators—moving averages, oscillators and pivots—are currently providing a buy signal, especially after Tesla’s strong earnings beat.\nBottom Line\nTesla has remained the only credible player in the high-quality EV market in recent years, but that equation is changing quickly after the entry of new players and the massive spending plans being put forward by the legacy car-makers. These dynamics don’t justify the company’s current valuation, which assumes that Tesla will become the biggest seller of cars in the U.S., while competitors won’t be able to succeed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1977,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}