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2021-08-07

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"Enough For Tapering To Start": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>

With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just o

"Enough For Tapering To Start": Wall Street Reacts To A Blockbuster Jobs Report<blockquote>“足以开始缩减规模”：华尔街对重磅就业报告的反应</blockquote>

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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁：正如德美利证券(TD Ameritrade)的JJ·基纳汉(JJ Kinahan)所说，“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会带来不同的扳手在那里，我们就像，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业正在取得进展，经济也在取得进展——希望在下一份就业报告中，我们将知道经济是否能够继续以这种速度发展。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>别人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>凯瑟琳·贾奇(Katherine Judge)，CIBC资本市场：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补充计划将于9月初到期，健康的就业增长应该会继续下去，与职位空缺的增加相一致。这份报告应该足以让美联储在2022年初宣布缩减量化宽松。九月会议。”ING银行外汇策略主管Chris Turner：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上“发出强烈暗示”，即美联储可能准备在随后几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元相对于日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国10年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币的需求应该会下降”彭博资讯经济学家卡尔·里卡唐纳(Carl Riccadonna)：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告“稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7月份为703,000人，6月份为769,000人）之外，7月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而这种情况很容易因Covid-19而逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为323,000人，略低于上个月的375,000人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济势头是稳态的，而不是加速。”尼尔·杜塔(Neil Dutta)，文艺复兴宏观经济学家：</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>FOMC可能会升级9月份声明中的措辞，称经济“有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致宣布“最早在11月”取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在12月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很大的数字，这是无法回避的，这确实是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株即将到来，我们将进行的对话是，这是通货膨胀吗？这意味着我们将进入缩减规模等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此了解更多之前，我认为它会带来不同的影响，我们会想，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业正在进步，经济也在进步——希望在下一份就业报告中，我们将知道经济是否能继续以这样的速度进步。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro全球政策研究主管Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在九月会议之前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，一个合理的基本情况是，FOMC在9月会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展以最近的速度继续，委员会将能够在未来几个月开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减规模在12月底或1月初开始。“所以底线是，我认为时间表保持不变。很难在9月开始缩减规模，因为这既违背了7月声明中的‘即将举行的会议’（复数）语言，也违背了FOMC在实际开始缩减规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”<blockquote>然而，还有一个潜在的障碍：三角洲激增以及随之而来的限制和/或封锁：正如德美利证券(TD Ameritrade)的JJ·基纳汉(JJ Kinahan)所说，“由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此有更多了解之前，我认为它会带来不同的扳手在那里，我们就像，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业正在取得进展，经济也在取得进展——希望在下一份就业报告中，我们将知道经济是否能够继续以这种速度发展。现在看来会的。”</blockquote> Do others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.<blockquote>别人同意吗？下面我们摘录了一些分析师和策略师对今天报告的反应。</blockquote> Katherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:<blockquote>凯瑟琳·贾奇(Katherine Judge)，CIBC资本市场：</blockquote> “With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.” Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:<blockquote>“由于许多州的失业救济金补充计划将于9月初到期，健康的就业增长应该会继续下去，与职位空缺的增加相一致。这份报告应该足以让美联储在2022年初宣布缩减量化宽松。九月会议。”ING银行外汇策略主管Chris Turner：</blockquote> The stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips” Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:<blockquote>强于预期的就业报告使得美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔更有可能在本月晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上“发出强烈暗示”，即美联储可能准备在随后几个月开始缩减规模。该数据对美元相对于日元和欧元等低收益货币有利。尽管如此，美元的前景“不一定会损害风险环境……除非美国10年期国债收益率大幅飙升，否则高收益新兴市场货币的需求应该会下降”彭博资讯经济学家卡尔·里卡唐纳(Carl Riccadonna)：</blockquote> The jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000. This tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.” Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:<blockquote>就业报告“稳健，但并不像看起来那么强劲”。他说，除了私营部门招聘速度略有放缓（7月份为703,000人，6月份为769,000人）之外，7月份的大部分增长都发生在脆弱的休闲和酒店业，而这种情况很容易因Covid-19而逆转。这在OpenTable预订等指标中已经很明显了。“因此，如果我们看看休闲和酒店业以外的私营部门招聘情况，今天报告的增幅为323,000人，略低于上个月的375,000人。这告诉我们，潜在的经济势头是稳态的，而不是加速。”尼尔·杜塔(Neil Dutta)，文艺复兴宏观经济学家：</blockquote> The FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”&nbsp; Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:<blockquote>FOMC可能会升级9月份声明中的措辞，称经济“有望取得实质性进一步进展”，这将导致宣布“最早在11月”取得实质性进一步进展。在这种情况下，缩减规模最早可能在12月开始。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan：</blockquote> “It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.” Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:<blockquote>“这是一个很大的数字，这是无法回避的，这确实是一个令人印象深刻的数字。但我认为，如果我们没有新的德尔塔变异毒株即将到来，我们将进行的对话是，这是通货膨胀吗？这意味着我们将进入缩减规模等。但由于德尔塔变异毒株，在我们对此了解更多之前，我认为它会带来不同的影响，我们会想，好吧，现在我们处于观望模式。很高兴看到就业正在进步，经济也在进步——希望在下一份就业报告中，我们将知道经济是否能继续以这样的速度进步。现在看来会的。”Cornerstone Macro全球政策研究主管Roberto Perli：</blockquote> “The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.&nbsp; That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.&nbsp; It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.” <blockquote>“美联储将在九月会议之前再发布一份就业报告。假设情况也不错，一个合理的基本情况是，FOMC在9月会议上表示，劳动力市场继续取得良好进展，如果进展以最近的速度继续，委员会将能够在未来几个月开始缩减资产购买规模。这将使缩减规模在12月底或1月初开始。“所以底线是，我认为时间表保持不变。很难在9月开始缩减规模，因为这既违背了7月声明中的‘即将举行的会议’（复数）语言，也违背了FOMC在实际开始缩减规模之前会提供充分通知的理念。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/enough-tapering-start-wall-street-reacts-blockbuster-jobs-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145298738","content_text":"With the jobs report coming in at just shy of 1 million jobs on the establishment survey (and just over 1 million on the Household survey), with strong job creation, a big drop in unemployment rate, higher employment-to-population, rising wages and hours worked, and favorable revisions, consensus - at least judging by the market reaction - is that we have entered the \"substantial progress\" phase, greenlighting a tapering signal by the Fed at the end of the month during the Jackson Hole symposium.\nAnd yet there is one potential hurdle: the Delta surge and ensuing restrictions and/or lockdowns: as TD Ameritrade's JJ Kinahan says, \"because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\nDo others agree? Below we have excerpted some analyst and strategist reactions to today's report.\nKatherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets:\n\n“With many states set to see the unemployment benefit top-ups expire in early September, healthy job gains should continue ahead, in line with elevated job openings. This print should be enough to allow the Fed to announce an early 2022 tapering of QE at the September meeting.”\n\nChris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank:\n\nThe stronger-than-expected jobs report makes it more likely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may “drop heavy hints” at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, that the central bank may prepare to start tapering over subsequent months. The data is positive for the dollar versus the low-yielders such as the yen and euro. Still, the outlook for the greenback “should not necessarily damage the risk environment....Unless U.S. 10 year yields spike aggressively, high yield EM currencies should see demand on dips”\n\nCarl Riccadonna, Bloomberg Intelligence economist:\n\nThe jobs report is “sturdy, but not as strong as it looks.” In addition to the modest fade in the pace of private-sector hiring (703,000 in July vs. 769,000 in June), much of the July gain occurred in the tenuous leisure and hospitality sector -- and that could easily reverse due to Covid-19, he said. This already appears to be evident in metrics such as OpenTable bookings. “So if we look at private-sector hiring outside of leisure and hospitality, today’s reported gain was 323,000, a bit slower than the prior month’s 375,000.\nThis tells us that underlying economic momentum is steady-state, not accelerating.”\n\nNeil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro:\n\nThe FOMC could upgrade its language in the September statement to say that the economy is “on track for substantial further progress,” which would lead to a declaration of achievement of substantial further progress in “November at the earliest.”  Tapering, in that event, could begin as early as December.\n\nJJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade:\n\n“It’s a great number, there’s no way around that, it really is an impressive number. But I think if we didn’t have this new delta variant coming up, the conversation we’d be having is, is this inflationary, does this mean we’ll go into a taper, etc. But because of the delta variant, until we know a little bit more about that, I think it throws a different wrench in there, where we’re like, OK, now we’re in wait-and-see mode there. Great to see that the jobs are progressing and the economy is progressing -- hopefully by the next jobs report we’ll know if the economy can keep progressing at this pace. Right now it looks like it will.”\n\nRoberto Perli, head of global policy research at Cornerstone Macro:\n\n“The Fed will have one more employment report before the September meeting. Assuming it will be good as well, a plausible base case is for the FOMC to say at the September meeting that the labor market continued to make good progress, and if the progress continues at the recent pace the committee will be in a position to start tapering its asset purchases over the next few months.  That would put the onset of tapering in late December or early January.“So bottom line I think the timeline remains the same.  It would be hard to start tapering in September because it would go against both the ‘coming meetings’ (plural) language in the July statement and the notion that the FOMC would provide ample notice before actually starting tapering.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1124,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}