As the U.S. government inches closer to funding a batch of incentives and subsidies designed to spur domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research, a J.P. Morgan analyst has figured out which stocks could stand to gain the most from it.
Amid global chip shortages, triggered in part by supply and demand fluctuations because of the Covid-19 pandemic as well as natural disasters, Congress authorized a series of programs and incentives for U.S.-based chip companies earlier this year. Lawmakers included the programs designed to bolster U.S. manufacturing, research, and development in the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 2021, which became law in January, but didn’t provide funding for those initiatives.
According to J.P. Morgan chip analyst Harlan Sur, it’s likely that funding for those programs may be included in President Joe Biden ‘s infrastructure bill, one of the next priorities for the administration. Sur expects the “Build Back Better” infrastructure plan to pass in the first half of the year, resulting in funding starting in the second half of 2021.
Sur’s team estimated the incentives and subsidies could total between $35 billion and $37 billion, with about $18 billion to $20 billion for domestic chip manufacturing and $15 billion to $17 billion for chip research and development.
Based on the current language in the National Defense Authorize Act, Sur wrote in a note published on Monday that he expects integrated device manufacturers based in the U.S. will likely be prioritized when it’s time to dole out funds and incentives.
Those would include manufacturers such as Intel (ticker: INTC), Micron Technology (MU), Texas Instruments (TXN), Analog Devices (ADI), and On Semiconductor (ON) are all likely to benefit, Sur wrote. Companies that have U.S. defense-related qualifications are well-positioned to benefit as well, he wrote. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), international-based chip manufacturers that operate in the U.S., should benefit too, he said, but to a lesser degree.
Companies that make chip manufacturing equipment such as Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX) should also receive a lift because of higher equipment purchasing resulting from the incentives.
The PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, advanced nearly 2% on Monday, led by NXP Semiconductors NXP, which rose 8.8% to $199.57, and Broadcom (AVGO), which jumped 4.3% to $470.66.
The Sox has gained 94% in the past year as demand for chips destined for products ranging from appliances and videogame consoles to vehicles and smartphones has outpaced the industry’s ability to produce semiconductors.