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(July 22) U.S. initial jobless claims jump 51,000 to 419,000 in mid-July, vs. 350,000 estimate.

Total Number Of Americans On The Dole Plunges By 1.2 Million As States Cut Off Emergency Aid

This was not supposed to happen.

Initial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time(well above the prior week's 368k and expectations of a 350k print)...

Source: Bloomberg

Michigan and Texas saw the biggest jump in claims while New York and Oklahoma saw the best improvement...

'Traditional'continuing claims were basically unchanged over the prior week's revision.

There is some good news though,the total number of claims plunged by over 1.2 million last week(driven by a plunge in pandemic specific aid as states began shutting off the handouts)...

But, we note that overall, there remains over 12.5 million Americans on some form of government dole...

Source: Bloomberg

For context, that compares to the less than 2 million pre-pandemic-lockdowns.