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- TiltedguyTiltedguy
  ·2021-09-08
  #garbage
  5 Stock Ideas From an Investor Who Predicted Tesla Would Rise to $1,000<blockquote>预测特斯拉将升至1,000美元的投资者的5个股票想法</blockquote>
  Investors listen to what Gary Black has to say about Tesla. But the investing veteran is more than j
  5 Stock Ideas From an Investor Who Predicted Tesla Would Rise to $1,000<blockquote>预测特斯拉将升至1,000美元的投资者的5个股票想法</blockquote>
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- TiltedguyTiltedguy
  ·2021-06-26
  hi
  Air Liquide, Airbus, ADP Sign MoU On Hydrogen In Airports<blockquote>液化空气集团、空中客车公司、ADP签署机场氢气谅解备忘录</blockquote>
  L'AIR LIQUIDE SOCIETE ANONYME POUR L'ETUDE ET L'EXPLOITATION DES PROCEDES GEORGE :Air Liquide, Airbu
  Air Liquide, Airbus, ADP Sign MoU On Hydrogen In Airports<blockquote>液化空气集团、空中客车公司、ADP签署机场氢气谅解备忘录</blockquote>
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- TiltedguyTiltedguy
  ·2021-06-11
  hi
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,231 评论
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- TiltedguyTiltedguy
  ·2021-06-11
  hi
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,002 评论
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- TiltedguyTiltedguy
  ·2021-06-11
  🙁
  Inflation Rate Climb Adds Impetus to Fed Policy Shift<blockquote>通胀率攀升为美联储政策转向增添动力</blockquote>
  Central bankers are set to begin talking about easing bond purchases as soaring prices test patience
  Inflation Rate Climb Adds Impetus to Fed Policy Shift<blockquote>通胀率攀升为美联储政策转向增添动力</blockquote>
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- TiltedguyTiltedguy
  ·2021-02-05
  👍
  Oil prices rise to highest in a year on U.S. growth optimism, crude supply restraint<blockquote>美国经济增长乐观、原油供应受限油价升至一年来最高</blockquote>
  Singapore (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Friday to their highest levels in a year, extending a ru
  Oil prices rise to highest in a year on U.S. growth optimism, crude supply restraint<blockquote>美国经济增长乐观、原油供应受限油价升至一年来最高</blockquote>
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17:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stock Ideas From an Investor Who Predicted Tesla Would Rise to $1,000<blockquote>预测特斯拉将升至1,000美元的投资者的5个股票想法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175171654","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors listen to what Gary Black has to say about Tesla. But the investing veteran is more than j","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> listen to what Gary Black has to say about Tesla. But the investing veteran is more than just a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-trick, or one-stock, pony.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>听听Gary Black对特斯拉的看法。但这位投资老手不仅仅是一位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-诡计，或一只股票，小马。</blockquote></p><p> He has other picks for growth investors as well as a new actively managed ETF: The Future Fund (ticker: FFND), designed to capitalized on 10 megatrends he sees changing the world.</p><p><blockquote>他为成长型投资者提供了其他选择，以及一只新的主动管理型ETF：未来基金（股票代码：FFND），旨在利用他认为正在改变世界的10个大趋势。</blockquote></p><p> That fund is only a couple of weeks old. Black has been at the investing game for about 30 years, starting as a research analyst at Bernstein in 1992.</p><p><blockquote>该基金才成立几周。布莱克从1992年开始在伯恩斯坦担任研究分析师，从事投资行业已有大约30年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> After Bernstein, Black moved to the buy-side with stints at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> Asset Management, Janus and Aegon, among others. After a brief respite following Aegon, Black jumped into the world of actively managed ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>在伯恩斯坦之后，布莱克转向买方，曾在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>资产管理公司、骏利和全球保险集团等。在Aegon之后短暂休息后，Black进入了主动管理型ETF的领域。</blockquote></p><p> He sat down with Barron’s to talk about his new fund, his approach to investing and some of the stocks he’s invested in. An edited version of the conversation follows.</p><p><blockquote>他与《巴伦周刊》坐下来谈论他的新基金、他的投资方法以及他投资的一些股票。以下是对话的编辑版本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Barron’s: </b>We probably have to start with Tesla (TSLA). How do you value Tesla stock?</p><p><blockquote><b>巴伦周刊：</b>我们可能要从特斯拉（TSLA）开始。您如何评估特斯拉股票？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Black:</b> I take where I think global [car sales are] going to be in about five years, and I take the EV adoption–it will get to 25% by 2025. This is the big investment controversy on Tesla: As competitors enter the market, can it keep its roughly 25% EV share? If it can, I get about $32 or so of earnings in 2025. And if I even put a 50 multiple on it, which is pretty low given projected 55% average annual earnings growth. I get a $1,600 price. And that’s worth about $1,100 today.</p><p><blockquote><b>黑色：</b>我认为全球[汽车销量]将在大约五年内达到什么水平，以及电动汽车的采用率——到2025年将达到25%。这就是特斯拉最大的投资争议：随着竞争对手进入市场，它能否保持大约25%的电动汽车份额？如果可以的话，到2025年我将获得大约32美元左右的收入。即使我给它打50倍，考虑到预计55%的平均年盈利增长率，这个数字也相当低。我得到1600美元的价格。今天这大约值1100美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market share is the big controversy? What about self-driving cars?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场份额是最大的争议？自动驾驶汽车呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Stop saying Tesla has valuation equal to $1,000 a share because of the EV business. And then another $1,000 because of robotaxis.</p><p><blockquote>不要因为电动汽车业务而说特斯拉的估值相当于每股1,000美元。然后又是1000美元，因为机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tesla robotaxis like Waymo won’t be a thing?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像Waymo这样的特斯拉机器人出租车不会成为现实？</b></blockquote></p><p> I think you’re going to have commercial robotaxi. And you’re going to have consumer robotaxi.</p><p><blockquote>我认为你将拥有商业机器人出租车。你将拥有消费者机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has a head start, but competitors, especially those from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a>, are offering more expensive systems with vision, lidar, radar and HD mapping allowing them to close the gap. Everyone will get there eventually–which Elon has said. Tesla’s features will still let Tesla sell more Teslas.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉处于领先地位，但竞争对手，尤其是来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>，正在提供具有视觉、激光雷达、雷达和高清测绘功能的更昂贵的系统，使他们能够缩小差距。每个人最终都会到达那里——埃隆已经说过了。特斯拉的功能仍然会让特斯拉卖出更多的特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why did you start the Future Fund ETF?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么要启动未来基金ETF？</b></blockquote></p><p> Secular growth [is] its cornerstone. We’re looking to capitalize on 10 secular megatrends that are changing the world.</p><p><blockquote>长期增长是其基石。我们希望利用正在改变世界的10个长期大趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What are they?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>它们是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> They are: [1] 24/7 information and entertainment, [2] social networking, [3] mobility–working from anywhere–[4] e-commerce, [5] fintech innovation, [6] big data and security, [7] people living longer, [8] lifestyle betterment, [9] automation and [10] sustainability. Those are the 10.</p><p><blockquote>它们是：[1]24/7信息和娱乐，[2]社交网络，[3]移动性-随时随地工作-[4]电子商务，[5]金融科技创新，[6]大数据和安全，[7]人们寿命更长，[8]生活方式改善，[9]自动化和[10]可持续发展。那是10个。</blockquote></p><p> And so what we try to do is find companies that [have] the megatrends as tailwinds. No. 1, we’re looking for high growth, 20% revenue growth. We’re looking for unlevered brands, meaning, brands that are very successful in, say, one segment, and they bring them into other segments, or brands that are successful in one geography, and can go global.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们试图做的是找到那些以大趋势为推动力的公司。第一，我们寻求高增长，20%的收入增长。我们正在寻找无杠杆品牌，即在一个细分市场非常成功的品牌，并将其带入其他细分市场，或者在一个地区取得成功并可以走向全球的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> No. 2, we’re looking for investment controversy. We’re looking for something where there is a fight, and where investors don’t agree. And that’s what creates opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>第二，我们在寻找投资争议。我们正在寻找存在争斗且投资者不同意的地方。这就是创造机会的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What’s your research process like?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的研究过程是怎样的？</b></blockquote></p><p> We go out, and I talk. We talk to a lot of competitors. When I was an analyst, I used to do focus groups. For 2,000 bucks, you could get 10 people in a room, and ask them why they don’t like about Beyond Meat [BYND] versus Impossible [Foods]. We can usually find information that gives me a research edge to answer the controversy.</p><p><blockquote>我们出去，我说话。我们和很多竞争对手谈过。当我还是分析师的时候，我经常做焦点小组。花2000美元，你可以让10个人呆在一个房间里，问他们为什么不喜欢Beyond Meat[BYND]和Impossible[Foods]。我们通常可以找到给我研究优势的信息来回答争议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>And how do you build your portfolio?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你如何建立你的投资组合？</b></blockquote></p><p> We want a portfolio that’s high conviction, meaning no more than about 40 names. The top 10 names are about 40% of the portfolio. So that’s high conviction to me.</p><p><blockquote>我们想要一个高度可信的投资组合，这意味着不超过40个名字。排名前10的名字约占投资组合的40%。所以这对我来说是高度的信念。</blockquote></p><p> We think we have very strong buy and sell discipline. When we put something in the portfolio, we want it to have at least 2:1 risk-adjusted upside versus downside.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为我们有非常严格的买卖纪律。当我们将某样东西放入投资组合时，我们希望它的风险调整后上行空间与下行空间至少为2：1。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else do you like, besides Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>除了特斯拉，你还喜欢什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> We have Google [parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> ], which is changing the world. Google is a mega cap stock just like Tesla is. But we think You Tube is 24/7 information and entertainment. YouTube is way undervalued. They’re still monetizing [search]. It has good 15% to 20% revenue growth. At 22 times projected earnings, it’s still [an attractive] price to us.</p><p><blockquote>我们有谷歌[父<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>]，这正在改变世界。谷歌和特斯拉一样都是大盘股。但我们认为You Tube是24/7的信息和娱乐。YouTube被严重低估了。他们仍在通过[搜索]赚钱。它有15%到20%的良好收入增长。预计市盈率为22倍，对我们来说仍然是一个[有吸引力的]价格。</blockquote></p><p> Another name we have is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">Chipotle Mexican Grill</a> [CMG]. It fits with this megatrend of eating healthy, staying fit. We call it lifestyle betterment. Their product innovation has been superb–they launched these rolled quesadillas, which are going to have monster 15% same-store sales comps for them in the third quarter. It’s a great stock for us. Not cheap. But it has high growth.</p><p><blockquote>另一个名字是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">墨西哥烤肉店</a>[CMG]。它符合健康饮食、保持身材的大趋势。我们看涨期权it生活方式的改善。他们的产品创新非常出色——他们推出了这些卷油炸玉米饼，第三季度同店销售额将达到15%。这对我们来说是一只很棒的股票。不便宜。但它有很高的成长性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How about a couple more?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>再来几个怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One of the names that’s controversial we own is Tencent [TCEHY]. It’s one of the largest Internet companies in the world. It has 1.2 billion WeChat users. We believe that Chinese regulatory fears are overdone. Tencent is now trading at about 25 times next year’s earnings. We view it as having probably 20% revenue growth for at least the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>我们拥有的一个有争议的名字是腾讯控股[TCEHY]。它是世界上最大的互联网公司之一。它拥有12亿微信用户。我们认为，中国监管的担忧有些过头了。腾讯控股目前的市盈率约为明年市盈率的25倍。我们认为至少在未来几年内，它的收入可能会增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNRC\">Generac</a> [GNRC] is another one. We’ll call it a climate change stock. Because climate change is happening, you have a lot of wildfires. You have a lot of weather patterns that aren’t normal. And in new homes today, one of the most common features that people are putting is a generator.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNRC\">通用</a>[GNRC]是另一个。我们将其看涨期权为气候变化股票。因为气候变化正在发生，所以有很多野火。你有很多不正常的天气模式。在今天的新房子里，人们最常见的特征之一就是发电机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Generac sales be disrupted by battery storage in homes?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>家庭中的电池存储会扰乱Generac的销售吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Battery and solar powered walls and roofs are still expensive–$40,000. A Generac system starts at $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>电池和太阳能供电的墙壁和屋顶仍然很贵——4万美元。Generac系统起价为2,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One more?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>再来一个？</b></blockquote></p><p> Snap [SNAP] is another name. If you have kids, Snap is one of the [apps] everybody’s using. The ARPU [or average revenue per user] is $13 annually, up about 30% over a year ago. Active users will be up about 20% this year. Do you use Tik Tok?</p><p><blockquote>SNAP【SNAP】是另一个名字。如果你有孩子，Snap是每个人都在使用的应用程序之一。ARPU（或每用户平均收入）为每年13美元，比一年前增长约30%。今年活跃用户将增长约20%。你用抖音吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>No.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>没有。</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest risk to Snap is something else comes along that the 18 to 25-year-old crowd wants to use that’s better. And Tik Tok is a disrupter to Snap. But I have kids in this age group, three of them, and they all use Snap.</p><p><blockquote>Snap面临的最大风险是18至25岁人群想要使用的更好的其他东西。而Tik Tok是Snap的颠覆者。但是我有这个年龄段的孩子，他们三个，他们都用Snap。</blockquote></p><p> The monetization has just begun. The global expansion has just begun. I think you have got at least three or four years of [growth].</p><p><blockquote>货币化才刚刚开始。全球扩张才刚刚开始。我认为你至少有三四年的[增长]。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks, Gary.</p><p><blockquote>谢谢，加里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stock Ideas From an Investor Who Predicted Tesla Would Rise to $1,000<blockquote>预测特斯拉将升至1,000美元的投资者的5个股票想法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stock Ideas From an Investor Who Predicted Tesla Would Rise to $1,000<blockquote>预测特斯拉将升至1,000美元的投资者的5个股票想法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 17:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> listen to what Gary Black has to say about Tesla. But the investing veteran is more than just a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-trick, or one-stock, pony.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>听听Gary Black对特斯拉的看法。但这位投资老手不仅仅是一位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-诡计，或一只股票，小马。</blockquote></p><p> He has other picks for growth investors as well as a new actively managed ETF: The Future Fund (ticker: FFND), designed to capitalized on 10 megatrends he sees changing the world.</p><p><blockquote>他为成长型投资者提供了其他选择，以及一只新的主动管理型ETF：未来基金（股票代码：FFND），旨在利用他认为正在改变世界的10个大趋势。</blockquote></p><p> That fund is only a couple of weeks old. Black has been at the investing game for about 30 years, starting as a research analyst at Bernstein in 1992.</p><p><blockquote>该基金才成立几周。布莱克从1992年开始在伯恩斯坦担任研究分析师，从事投资行业已有大约30年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> After Bernstein, Black moved to the buy-side with stints at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> Asset Management, Janus and Aegon, among others. After a brief respite following Aegon, Black jumped into the world of actively managed ETFs.</p><p><blockquote>在伯恩斯坦之后，布莱克转向买方，曾在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>资产管理公司、骏利和全球保险集团等。在Aegon之后短暂休息后，Black进入了主动管理型ETF的领域。</blockquote></p><p> He sat down with Barron’s to talk about his new fund, his approach to investing and some of the stocks he’s invested in. An edited version of the conversation follows.</p><p><blockquote>他与《巴伦周刊》坐下来谈论他的新基金、他的投资方法以及他投资的一些股票。以下是对话的编辑版本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Barron’s: </b>We probably have to start with Tesla (TSLA). How do you value Tesla stock?</p><p><blockquote><b>巴伦周刊：</b>我们可能要从特斯拉（TSLA）开始。您如何评估特斯拉股票？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Black:</b> I take where I think global [car sales are] going to be in about five years, and I take the EV adoption–it will get to 25% by 2025. This is the big investment controversy on Tesla: As competitors enter the market, can it keep its roughly 25% EV share? If it can, I get about $32 or so of earnings in 2025. And if I even put a 50 multiple on it, which is pretty low given projected 55% average annual earnings growth. I get a $1,600 price. And that’s worth about $1,100 today.</p><p><blockquote><b>黑色：</b>我认为全球[汽车销量]将在大约五年内达到什么水平，以及电动汽车的采用率——到2025年将达到25%。这就是特斯拉最大的投资争议：随着竞争对手进入市场，它能否保持大约25%的电动汽车份额？如果可以的话，到2025年我将获得大约32美元左右的收入。即使我给它打50倍，考虑到预计55%的平均年盈利增长率，这个数字也相当低。我得到1600美元的价格。今天这大约值1100美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market share is the big controversy? What about self-driving cars?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场份额是最大的争议？自动驾驶汽车呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Stop saying Tesla has valuation equal to $1,000 a share because of the EV business. And then another $1,000 because of robotaxis.</p><p><blockquote>不要因为电动汽车业务而说特斯拉的估值相当于每股1,000美元。然后又是1000美元，因为机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tesla robotaxis like Waymo won’t be a thing?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像Waymo这样的特斯拉机器人出租车不会成为现实？</b></blockquote></p><p> I think you’re going to have commercial robotaxi. And you’re going to have consumer robotaxi.</p><p><blockquote>我认为你将拥有商业机器人出租车。你将拥有消费者机器人出租车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has a head start, but competitors, especially those from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a>, are offering more expensive systems with vision, lidar, radar and HD mapping allowing them to close the gap. Everyone will get there eventually–which Elon has said. Tesla’s features will still let Tesla sell more Teslas.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉处于领先地位，但竞争对手，尤其是来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>，正在提供具有视觉、激光雷达、雷达和高清测绘功能的更昂贵的系统，使他们能够缩小差距。每个人最终都会到达那里——埃隆已经说过了。特斯拉的功能仍然会让特斯拉卖出更多的特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why did you start the Future Fund ETF?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么要启动未来基金ETF？</b></blockquote></p><p> Secular growth [is] its cornerstone. We’re looking to capitalize on 10 secular megatrends that are changing the world.</p><p><blockquote>长期增长是其基石。我们希望利用正在改变世界的10个长期大趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What are they?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>它们是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> They are: [1] 24/7 information and entertainment, [2] social networking, [3] mobility–working from anywhere–[4] e-commerce, [5] fintech innovation, [6] big data and security, [7] people living longer, [8] lifestyle betterment, [9] automation and [10] sustainability. Those are the 10.</p><p><blockquote>它们是：[1]24/7信息和娱乐，[2]社交网络，[3]移动性-随时随地工作-[4]电子商务，[5]金融科技创新，[6]大数据和安全，[7]人们寿命更长，[8]生活方式改善，[9]自动化和[10]可持续发展。那是10个。</blockquote></p><p> And so what we try to do is find companies that [have] the megatrends as tailwinds. No. 1, we’re looking for high growth, 20% revenue growth. We’re looking for unlevered brands, meaning, brands that are very successful in, say, one segment, and they bring them into other segments, or brands that are successful in one geography, and can go global.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们试图做的是找到那些以大趋势为推动力的公司。第一，我们寻求高增长，20%的收入增长。我们正在寻找无杠杆品牌，即在一个细分市场非常成功的品牌，并将其带入其他细分市场，或者在一个地区取得成功并可以走向全球的品牌。</blockquote></p><p> No. 2, we’re looking for investment controversy. We’re looking for something where there is a fight, and where investors don’t agree. And that’s what creates opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>第二，我们在寻找投资争议。我们正在寻找存在争斗且投资者不同意的地方。这就是创造机会的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What’s your research process like?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的研究过程是怎样的？</b></blockquote></p><p> We go out, and I talk. We talk to a lot of competitors. When I was an analyst, I used to do focus groups. For 2,000 bucks, you could get 10 people in a room, and ask them why they don’t like about Beyond Meat [BYND] versus Impossible [Foods]. We can usually find information that gives me a research edge to answer the controversy.</p><p><blockquote>我们出去，我说话。我们和很多竞争对手谈过。当我还是分析师的时候，我经常做焦点小组。花2000美元，你可以让10个人呆在一个房间里，问他们为什么不喜欢Beyond Meat[BYND]和Impossible[Foods]。我们通常可以找到给我研究优势的信息来回答争议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>And how do you build your portfolio?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你如何建立你的投资组合？</b></blockquote></p><p> We want a portfolio that’s high conviction, meaning no more than about 40 names. The top 10 names are about 40% of the portfolio. So that’s high conviction to me.</p><p><blockquote>我们想要一个高度可信的投资组合，这意味着不超过40个名字。排名前10的名字约占投资组合的40%。所以这对我来说是高度的信念。</blockquote></p><p> We think we have very strong buy and sell discipline. When we put something in the portfolio, we want it to have at least 2:1 risk-adjusted upside versus downside.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为我们有非常严格的买卖纪律。当我们将某样东西放入投资组合时，我们希望它的风险调整后上行空间与下行空间至少为2：1。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else do you like, besides Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>除了特斯拉，你还喜欢什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> We have Google [parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> ], which is changing the world. Google is a mega cap stock just like Tesla is. But we think You Tube is 24/7 information and entertainment. YouTube is way undervalued. They’re still monetizing [search]. It has good 15% to 20% revenue growth. At 22 times projected earnings, it’s still [an attractive] price to us.</p><p><blockquote>我们有谷歌[父<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>]，这正在改变世界。谷歌和特斯拉一样都是大盘股。但我们认为You Tube是24/7的信息和娱乐。YouTube被严重低估了。他们仍在通过[搜索]赚钱。它有15%到20%的良好收入增长。预计市盈率为22倍，对我们来说仍然是一个[有吸引力的]价格。</blockquote></p><p> Another name we have is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">Chipotle Mexican Grill</a> [CMG]. It fits with this megatrend of eating healthy, staying fit. We call it lifestyle betterment. Their product innovation has been superb–they launched these rolled quesadillas, which are going to have monster 15% same-store sales comps for them in the third quarter. It’s a great stock for us. Not cheap. But it has high growth.</p><p><blockquote>另一个名字是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">墨西哥烤肉店</a>[CMG]。它符合健康饮食、保持身材的大趋势。我们看涨期权it生活方式的改善。他们的产品创新非常出色——他们推出了这些卷油炸玉米饼，第三季度同店销售额将达到15%。这对我们来说是一只很棒的股票。不便宜。但它有很高的成长性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How about a couple more?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>再来几个怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One of the names that’s controversial we own is Tencent [TCEHY]. It’s one of the largest Internet companies in the world. It has 1.2 billion WeChat users. We believe that Chinese regulatory fears are overdone. Tencent is now trading at about 25 times next year’s earnings. We view it as having probably 20% revenue growth for at least the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>我们拥有的一个有争议的名字是腾讯控股[TCEHY]。它是世界上最大的互联网公司之一。它拥有12亿微信用户。我们认为，中国监管的担忧有些过头了。腾讯控股目前的市盈率约为明年市盈率的25倍。我们认为至少在未来几年内，它的收入可能会增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNRC\">Generac</a> [GNRC] is another one. We’ll call it a climate change stock. Because climate change is happening, you have a lot of wildfires. You have a lot of weather patterns that aren’t normal. And in new homes today, one of the most common features that people are putting is a generator.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNRC\">通用</a>[GNRC]是另一个。我们将其看涨期权为气候变化股票。因为气候变化正在发生，所以有很多野火。你有很多不正常的天气模式。在今天的新房子里，人们最常见的特征之一就是发电机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Generac sales be disrupted by battery storage in homes?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>家庭中的电池存储会扰乱Generac的销售吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Battery and solar powered walls and roofs are still expensive–$40,000. A Generac system starts at $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>电池和太阳能供电的墙壁和屋顶仍然很贵——4万美元。Generac系统起价为2,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One more?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>再来一个？</b></blockquote></p><p> Snap [SNAP] is another name. If you have kids, Snap is one of the [apps] everybody’s using. The ARPU [or average revenue per user] is $13 annually, up about 30% over a year ago. Active users will be up about 20% this year. Do you use Tik Tok?</p><p><blockquote>SNAP【SNAP】是另一个名字。如果你有孩子，Snap是每个人都在使用的应用程序之一。ARPU（或每用户平均收入）为每年13美元，比一年前增长约30%。今年活跃用户将增长约20%。你用抖音吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>No.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>没有。</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest risk to Snap is something else comes along that the 18 to 25-year-old crowd wants to use that’s better. And Tik Tok is a disrupter to Snap. But I have kids in this age group, three of them, and they all use Snap.</p><p><blockquote>Snap面临的最大风险是18至25岁人群想要使用的更好的其他东西。而Tik Tok是Snap的颠覆者。但是我有这个年龄段的孩子，他们三个，他们都用Snap。</blockquote></p><p> The monetization has just begun. The global expansion has just begun. I think you have got at least three or four years of [growth].</p><p><blockquote>货币化才刚刚开始。全球扩张才刚刚开始。我认为你至少有三四年的[增长]。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks, Gary.</p><p><blockquote>谢谢，加里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-ideas-gary-black-tesla-51631058814?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FFND":"One Global ETF","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","GNRC":"Generac控股","SNAP":"Snap Inc","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-ideas-gary-black-tesla-51631058814?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175171654","content_text":"Investors listen to what Gary Black has to say about Tesla. But the investing veteran is more than just a one-trick, or one-stock, pony.\nHe has other picks for growth investors as well as a new actively managed ETF: The Future Fund (ticker: FFND), designed to capitalized on 10 megatrends he sees changing the world.\nThat fund is only a couple of weeks old. Black has been at the investing game for about 30 years, starting as a research analyst at Bernstein in 1992.\nAfter Bernstein, Black moved to the buy-side with stints at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Janus and Aegon, among others. After a brief respite following Aegon, Black jumped into the world of actively managed ETFs.\nHe sat down with Barron’s to talk about his new fund, his approach to investing and some of the stocks he’s invested in. An edited version of the conversation follows.\nBarron’s: We probably have to start with Tesla (TSLA). How do you value Tesla stock?\nBlack: I take where I think global [car sales are] going to be in about five years, and I take the EV adoption–it will get to 25% by 2025. This is the big investment controversy on Tesla: As competitors enter the market, can it keep its roughly 25% EV share? If it can, I get about $32 or so of earnings in 2025. And if I even put a 50 multiple on it, which is pretty low given projected 55% average annual earnings growth. I get a $1,600 price. And that’s worth about $1,100 today.\nMarket share is the big controversy? What about self-driving cars?\nStop saying Tesla has valuation equal to $1,000 a share because of the EV business. And then another $1,000 because of robotaxis.\nTesla robotaxis like Waymo won’t be a thing?\nI think you’re going to have commercial robotaxi. And you’re going to have consumer robotaxi.\nTesla has a head start, but competitors, especially those from China, are offering more expensive systems with vision, lidar, radar and HD mapping allowing them to close the gap. Everyone will get there eventually–which Elon has said. Tesla’s features will still let Tesla sell more Teslas.\nWhy did you start the Future Fund ETF?\nSecular growth [is] its cornerstone. We’re looking to capitalize on 10 secular megatrends that are changing the world.\nWhat are they?\nThey are: [1] 24/7 information and entertainment, [2] social networking, [3] mobility–working from anywhere–[4] e-commerce, [5] fintech innovation, [6] big data and security, [7] people living longer, [8] lifestyle betterment, [9] automation and [10] sustainability. Those are the 10.\nAnd so what we try to do is find companies that [have] the megatrends as tailwinds. No. 1, we’re looking for high growth, 20% revenue growth. We’re looking for unlevered brands, meaning, brands that are very successful in, say, one segment, and they bring them into other segments, or brands that are successful in one geography, and can go global.\nNo. 2, we’re looking for investment controversy. We’re looking for something where there is a fight, and where investors don’t agree. And that’s what creates opportunity.\nWhat’s your research process like?\nWe go out, and I talk. We talk to a lot of competitors. When I was an analyst, I used to do focus groups. For 2,000 bucks, you could get 10 people in a room, and ask them why they don’t like about Beyond Meat [BYND] versus Impossible [Foods]. We can usually find information that gives me a research edge to answer the controversy.\nAnd how do you build your portfolio?\nWe want a portfolio that’s high conviction, meaning no more than about 40 names. The top 10 names are about 40% of the portfolio. So that’s high conviction to me.\nWe think we have very strong buy and sell discipline. When we put something in the portfolio, we want it to have at least 2:1 risk-adjusted upside versus downside.\nWhat else do you like, besides Tesla?\nWe have Google [parent Alphabet ], which is changing the world. Google is a mega cap stock just like Tesla is. But we think You Tube is 24/7 information and entertainment. YouTube is way undervalued. They’re still monetizing [search]. It has good 15% to 20% revenue growth. At 22 times projected earnings, it’s still [an attractive] price to us.\nAnother name we have is Chipotle Mexican Grill [CMG]. It fits with this megatrend of eating healthy, staying fit. We call it lifestyle betterment. Their product innovation has been superb–they launched these rolled quesadillas, which are going to have monster 15% same-store sales comps for them in the third quarter. It’s a great stock for us. Not cheap. But it has high growth.\nHow about a couple more?\nOne of the names that’s controversial we own is Tencent [TCEHY]. It’s one of the largest Internet companies in the world. It has 1.2 billion WeChat users. We believe that Chinese regulatory fears are overdone. Tencent is now trading at about 25 times next year’s earnings. We view it as having probably 20% revenue growth for at least the next few years.\nGenerac [GNRC] is another one. We’ll call it a climate change stock. Because climate change is happening, you have a lot of wildfires. You have a lot of weather patterns that aren’t normal. And in new homes today, one of the most common features that people are putting is a generator.\nCan Generac sales be disrupted by battery storage in homes?\nBattery and solar powered walls and roofs are still expensive–$40,000. A Generac system starts at $2,000.\nOne more?\nSnap [SNAP] is another name. If you have kids, Snap is one of the [apps] everybody’s using. The ARPU [or average revenue per user] is $13 annually, up about 30% over a year ago. Active users will be up about 20% this year. Do you use Tik Tok?\nNo.\nThe biggest risk to Snap is something else comes along that the 18 to 25-year-old crowd wants to use that’s better. And Tik Tok is a disrupter to Snap. But I have kids in this age group, three of them, and they all use Snap.\nThe monetization has just begun. The global expansion has just begun. I think you have got at least three or four years of [growth].\nThanks, Gary.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"GNRC":0.9,"FFND":0.9,"SNAP":0.9,"TCEHY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125393712,"gmtCreate":1624647627836,"gmtModify":1633950101185,"author":{"id":"3555077406572366","authorId":"3555077406572366","name":"Tiltedguy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6297b71cc103811214fd585f61f3a8f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555077406572366","idStr":"3555077406572366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125393712","repostId":"2145508543","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2145508543","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1624258236,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145508543?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 14:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Air Liquide, Airbus, ADP Sign MoU On Hydrogen In Airports<blockquote>液化空气集团、空中客车公司、ADP签署机场氢气谅解备忘录</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145508543","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"L'AIR LIQUIDE SOCIETE ANONYME POUR L'ETUDE ET L'EXPLOITATION DES PROCEDES GEORGE :Air Liquide, Airbu","content":"<p><html><body>L'AIR LIQUIDE SOCIETE ANONYME POUR L'ETUDE ET L'EXPLOITATION DES PROCEDES GEORGE <adp.pa>:Air Liquide, Airbus And Groupe Adp Partner To Prepare Paris Airports For The Hydrogen Era.Air Liquide, Airbus And Groupe Adp Have Signed Mou To Prepare For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">Arrival</a> Of Hydrogen In Airports By 2035.Further Company Coverage: Airp.Paair.Paadp.Pa. (Gdansk Newsroom). ((Gdansk.Newsroom@Thomsonreuters.Com; +48 58 778 51 10;)).</adp.pa></p><p><blockquote><html><body>液化空气公司乔治工艺研究和开发有限公司<adp.pa>：液化空气集团、空中客车公司和Groupe Adp合作，为巴黎机场迎接氢时代做好准备。液化空气集团、空中客车公司和Groupe Adp已签署谅解备忘录，为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">到来</a>到2035年，机场中的氢气。进一步的公司报道：Airp.Paair.Paadp.Pa。（格但斯克新闻编辑室）。（（Gdansk.Newsroom@Thomsonreuters.Com；+48 58 778 51 10；））。</adp.pa></body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Air Liquide, Airbus, ADP Sign MoU On Hydrogen In Airports<blockquote>液化空气集团、空中客车公司、ADP签署机场氢气谅解备忘录</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAir Liquide, Airbus, ADP Sign MoU On Hydrogen In Airports<blockquote>液化空气集团、空中客车公司、ADP签署机场氢气谅解备忘录</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-21 14:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>L'AIR LIQUIDE SOCIETE ANONYME POUR L'ETUDE ET L'EXPLOITATION DES PROCEDES GEORGE <adp.pa>:Air Liquide, Airbus And Groupe Adp Partner To Prepare Paris Airports For The Hydrogen Era.Air Liquide, Airbus And Groupe Adp Have Signed Mou To Prepare For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">Arrival</a> Of Hydrogen In Airports By 2035.Further Company Coverage: Airp.Paair.Paadp.Pa. (Gdansk Newsroom). ((Gdansk.Newsroom@Thomsonreuters.Com; +48 58 778 51 10;)).</adp.pa></p><p><blockquote><html><body>液化空气公司乔治工艺研究和开发有限公司<adp.pa>：液化空气集团、空中客车公司和Groupe Adp合作，为巴黎机场迎接氢时代做好准备。液化空气集团、空中客车公司和Groupe Adp已签署谅解备忘录，为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">到来</a>到2035年，机场中的氢气。进一步的公司报道：Airp.Paair.Paadp.Pa。（格但斯克新闻编辑室）。（（Gdansk.Newsroom@Thomsonreuters.Com；+48 58 778 51 10；））。</adp.pa></body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","AIRI":"Air Industries Group"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145508543","content_text":"L'AIR LIQUIDE SOCIETE ANONYME POUR L'ETUDE ET L'EXPLOITATION DES PROCEDES GEORGE :Air Liquide, Airbus And Groupe Adp Partner To Prepare Paris Airports For The Hydrogen Era.Air Liquide, Airbus And Groupe Adp Have Signed Mou To Prepare For Arrival Of Hydrogen In Airports By 2035.Further Company Coverage: Airp.Paair.Paadp.Pa. (Gdansk Newsroom). ((Gdansk.Newsroom@Thomsonreuters.Com; +48 58 778 51 10;)).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HYDG.UK":1,"AI":0.9,"AIRI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181483625,"gmtCreate":1623406741967,"gmtModify":1634033667014,"author":{"id":"3555077406572366","authorId":"3555077406572366","name":"Tiltedguy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6297b71cc103811214fd585f61f3a8f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555077406572366","idStr":"3555077406572366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181483625","repostId":"2142721782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181490536,"gmtCreate":1623405266125,"gmtModify":1634033684508,"author":{"id":"3555077406572366","authorId":"3555077406572366","name":"Tiltedguy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6297b71cc103811214fd585f61f3a8f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555077406572366","idStr":"3555077406572366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181490536","repostId":"2142228082","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181406861,"gmtCreate":1623404915053,"gmtModify":1634033687782,"author":{"id":"3555077406572366","authorId":"3555077406572366","name":"Tiltedguy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6297b71cc103811214fd585f61f3a8f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555077406572366","idStr":"3555077406572366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙁","listText":"🙁","text":"🙁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181406861","repostId":"1114956060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114956060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623403683,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114956060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 17:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Rate Climb Adds Impetus to Fed Policy Shift<blockquote>通胀率攀升为美联储政策转向增添动力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114956060","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Central bankers are set to begin talking about easing bond purchases as soaring prices test patience","content":"<p>  Central bankers are set to begin talking about easing bond purchases as soaring prices test patience.  WASHINGTON—The recent inflation surge gives Federal Reserve officials further reason to begin discussing an eventual wind-down of their pandemic-driven easy-money policies at their meeting next week.</p><p><blockquote>随着物价飙升考验耐心，央行行长们将开始讨论放松债券购买。华盛顿——最近的通胀飙升让美联储官员有更多理由在下周的会议上开始讨论最终结束由大流行驱动的宽松货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> A growing number of economists are becoming concerned that the Fed could fall behind the curve on inflation as it seeks to aid the labor market’s recovery. If that happened, the central bank would have to tighten policy more abruptly than economists and market participants currently anticipate, dealing a potential blow to the economy and fueling market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>越来越多的经济学家开始担心，美联储在寻求帮助劳动力市场复苏时可能会落后于通胀曲线。如果发生这种情况，央行将不得不比经济学家和市场参与者目前预期的更突然地收紧政策，这可能会对经济造成打击，并加剧市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> “The intensity of the current inflation and the current bottlenecks in supply chains and labor markets is greater than I had anticipated,” said former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, adding that he still shares the central bank’s belief that the inflation pickup is temporary. “But it also could be that the underlying demand-supply balance will not correct as readily or as comfortably as the Fed and I had expected earlier. It’s got my inflation antenna quivering.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储前副主席唐纳德·科恩表示：“当前通胀的强度以及当前供应链和劳动力市场的瓶颈比我预期的要大。”他补充说，他仍然同意央行的观点，即通胀回升是暂时的。“但也有可能潜在的供需平衡不会像美联储和我之前预期的那样容易或轻松地纠正。这让我的通胀天线颤抖。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49af371440294f4e99311c66545c2930\" tg-width=\"333\" tg-height=\"417\">The first step in what is expected to be a gradual process of scaling back easy money would be to slow Fed purchases of mortgage and government bonds, something Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said he’s not in a hurry to do.</p><p><blockquote>预计逐步缩减宽松货币政策的第一步将是减缓美联储购买抵押贷款和政府债券的速度，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，他并不急于这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Consumerprices rose 5% in Mayfrom a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy components, rose 3.8%, the largest annual jump since 1992. That followed strong price increases in April as well. The Fed seeks 2% inflation over the medium term, though it uses a different index as a gauge.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四表示，5月份消费者价格同比上涨5%。所谓的核心价格（不包括波动较大的食品和能源成分）上涨3.8%，为1992年以来最大年度涨幅。此前，四月份价格也出现了强劲上涨。美联储寻求中期通胀率达到2%，尽管它使用不同的指数作为衡量标准。</blockquote></p><p> Central bankers note that the recent increase in inflation has been powered by an unusual combination of supply bottlenecks and pent-up demand from consumers emerging from their homes—pressures that should ease on their own later this year.</p><p><blockquote>央行行长们指出，近期通胀上升是由供应瓶颈和消费者从家中出现的被压抑需求的不同寻常的组合推动的——这种压力应该会在今年晚些时候自行缓解。</blockquote></p><p> But Thursday’s data raise the stakes for the Fed as it begins to weigh pulling back on stimulative policies rolled out early in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>但周四的数据增加了美联储的风险，因为美联储开始权衡撤回疫情初期推出的刺激政策。</blockquote></p><p> Since last year, the Fed has held its key overnight interest rate near zero and has been buying at least $120 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds. Its goal is to fuel the economy’s recovery by providing cheap credit.</p><p><blockquote>自去年以来，美联储一直将关键隔夜利率维持在接近零的水平，并每月购买至少1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款债券。其目标是通过提供廉价信贷来推动经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Economists say the easy money is likely exacerbating some of the imbalances that are pushing up prices, since it fuels demand without directly boosting the supply of workers, cars or airplane tickets. A key risk is that price increases become large or persistent enough that consumers and businesses begin to expect and accept higher inflation. If that happens, the Fed would likely have to raise interest rates more than it currently anticipates to bring down those expectations.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，宽松货币政策可能会加剧一些推高物价的失衡，因为它刺激了需求，但没有直接增加工人、汽车或机票的供应。一个关键的风险是，价格上涨变得足够大或持续，以至于消费者和企业开始预期并接受更高的通胀。如果发生这种情况，美联储可能不得不加息超过目前预期的幅度才能降低这些预期。</blockquote></p><p> For decades, the Fed relied on forecasts of inflation to guide its monetary policy, knowing that interest-rate increases or cuts can take months or years to filter through the economy. If the forecasts showed excessive inflation looming, the Fed tightened policy to prevent inflation from rising that much.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，美联储一直依靠通胀预测来指导其货币政策，因为它知道加息或降息可能需要数月或数年的时间才能渗透到经济中。如果预测显示过度通胀迫在眉睫，美联储就会收紧政策以防止通胀上升那么多。</blockquote></p><p> But last August, after more than a decade of below-target inflation, the Fed scrapped that strategy for one that prioritizes a strong labor market. Under the new strategy, if the economy is below full employment, the Fed will wait until it sees evidence of persistently above-target inflation before tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote>但去年8月，在经历了十多年低于目标的通胀后，美联储放弃了这一战略，转而优先考虑强劲的劳动力市场。在新策略下，如果经济低于充分就业，美联储将等到看到通胀持续高于目标的证据后再收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have said since December that they won’t raise interest rates until the labor market has returned to maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to rise moderately higher for some time.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员自去年12月以来一直表示，在劳动力市场恢复到最大就业水平、通胀率升至2%并有望在一段时间内温和走高之前，他们不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> They haven’t said how high they would be comfortable letting inflation go or for how long, but the sheer size of the recent price increases suggests it is on track to meet or exceed the Fed’s target sooner than was expected just a few months ago.</p><p><blockquote>他们没有说他们愿意让通胀上升到多高或持续多长时间，但最近物价上涨的规模表明，美联储有望比几个月前的预期更快地达到或超过美联储的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Central bankers have warned in recent remarks that they would act sooner if inflation becomes a problem.</p><p><blockquote>央行行长们在最近的讲话中警告说，如果通胀成为一个问题，他们将更快采取行动。</blockquote></p><p> Julia Coronado, a former Fed economist and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC, said she doesn’t think recent inflation data call for the Fed to change course.</p><p><blockquote>前美联储经济学家、MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC总裁Julia Coronado表示，她不认为最近的通胀数据是美联储改变路线的看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> “These price pressures are very narrowly focused on things that seem like they will be obviously transitory,” Ms. Coronado said. “Think about this: We are at the most intense moment. It will not get more intense than this. We are reopening. We are blasting stimulus into the economy with a fire hose. We’ve got monetary policy at maximum stimulation.”</p><p><blockquote>科罗纳多女士说：“这些价格压力非常狭隘地集中在那些似乎显然是暂时的事情上。”“想想看：我们正处于最激烈的时刻。不会比这更激烈了。我们正在重新开放。我们正在用消防水管向经济注入刺激措施。我们已经采取了最大程度的刺激货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p> Mark Carney, a veteran central banker who led the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020 and the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, said he sees growing evidence that the tightness in the U.S. labor market and related price pressures could extend beyond the short term.</p><p><blockquote>曾在2013年至2020年领导英国央行和2008年至2013年领导加拿大央行的资深央行行长马克·卡尼表示，他看到越来越多的证据表明，美国劳动力市场的紧张和相关的价格压力可能会超出短期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “The prospect of inflation being above target for longer than the makeup of the past undershoot—I think the balance of risks is headed in that direction at this stage,” Mr. Carney said in a Brookings Institution event Monday.</p><p><blockquote>卡尼周一在布鲁金斯学会的一次活动中表示：“通胀高于目标的时间比过去低于目标的时间还要长——我认为现阶段风险平衡正在朝着这个方向发展。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Rate Climb Adds Impetus to Fed Policy Shift<blockquote>通胀率攀升为美联储政策转向增添动力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Rate Climb Adds Impetus to Fed Policy Shift<blockquote>通胀率攀升为美联储政策转向增添动力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 17:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Central bankers are set to begin talking about easing bond purchases as soaring prices test patience.  WASHINGTON—The recent inflation surge gives Federal Reserve officials further reason to begin discussing an eventual wind-down of their pandemic-driven easy-money policies at their meeting next week.</p><p><blockquote>随着物价飙升考验耐心，央行行长们将开始讨论放松债券购买。华盛顿——最近的通胀飙升让美联储官员有更多理由在下周的会议上开始讨论最终结束由大流行驱动的宽松货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> A growing number of economists are becoming concerned that the Fed could fall behind the curve on inflation as it seeks to aid the labor market’s recovery. If that happened, the central bank would have to tighten policy more abruptly than economists and market participants currently anticipate, dealing a potential blow to the economy and fueling market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>越来越多的经济学家开始担心，美联储在寻求帮助劳动力市场复苏时可能会落后于通胀曲线。如果发生这种情况，央行将不得不比经济学家和市场参与者目前预期的更突然地收紧政策，这可能会对经济造成打击，并加剧市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> “The intensity of the current inflation and the current bottlenecks in supply chains and labor markets is greater than I had anticipated,” said former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, adding that he still shares the central bank’s belief that the inflation pickup is temporary. “But it also could be that the underlying demand-supply balance will not correct as readily or as comfortably as the Fed and I had expected earlier. It’s got my inflation antenna quivering.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储前副主席唐纳德·科恩表示：“当前通胀的强度以及当前供应链和劳动力市场的瓶颈比我预期的要大。”他补充说，他仍然同意央行的观点，即通胀回升是暂时的。“但也有可能潜在的供需平衡不会像美联储和我之前预期的那样容易或轻松地纠正。这让我的通胀天线颤抖。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49af371440294f4e99311c66545c2930\" tg-width=\"333\" tg-height=\"417\">The first step in what is expected to be a gradual process of scaling back easy money would be to slow Fed purchases of mortgage and government bonds, something Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said he’s not in a hurry to do.</p><p><blockquote>预计逐步缩减宽松货币政策的第一步将是减缓美联储购买抵押贷款和政府债券的速度，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，他并不急于这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Consumerprices rose 5% in Mayfrom a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy components, rose 3.8%, the largest annual jump since 1992. That followed strong price increases in April as well. The Fed seeks 2% inflation over the medium term, though it uses a different index as a gauge.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四表示，5月份消费者价格同比上涨5%。所谓的核心价格（不包括波动较大的食品和能源成分）上涨3.8%，为1992年以来最大年度涨幅。此前，四月份价格也出现了强劲上涨。美联储寻求中期通胀率达到2%，尽管它使用不同的指数作为衡量标准。</blockquote></p><p> Central bankers note that the recent increase in inflation has been powered by an unusual combination of supply bottlenecks and pent-up demand from consumers emerging from their homes—pressures that should ease on their own later this year.</p><p><blockquote>央行行长们指出，近期通胀上升是由供应瓶颈和消费者从家中出现的被压抑需求的不同寻常的组合推动的——这种压力应该会在今年晚些时候自行缓解。</blockquote></p><p> But Thursday’s data raise the stakes for the Fed as it begins to weigh pulling back on stimulative policies rolled out early in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>但周四的数据增加了美联储的风险，因为美联储开始权衡撤回疫情初期推出的刺激政策。</blockquote></p><p> Since last year, the Fed has held its key overnight interest rate near zero and has been buying at least $120 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds. Its goal is to fuel the economy’s recovery by providing cheap credit.</p><p><blockquote>自去年以来，美联储一直将关键隔夜利率维持在接近零的水平，并每月购买至少1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款债券。其目标是通过提供廉价信贷来推动经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Economists say the easy money is likely exacerbating some of the imbalances that are pushing up prices, since it fuels demand without directly boosting the supply of workers, cars or airplane tickets. A key risk is that price increases become large or persistent enough that consumers and businesses begin to expect and accept higher inflation. If that happens, the Fed would likely have to raise interest rates more than it currently anticipates to bring down those expectations.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，宽松货币政策可能会加剧一些推高物价的失衡，因为它刺激了需求，但没有直接增加工人、汽车或机票的供应。一个关键的风险是，价格上涨变得足够大或持续，以至于消费者和企业开始预期并接受更高的通胀。如果发生这种情况，美联储可能不得不加息超过目前预期的幅度才能降低这些预期。</blockquote></p><p> For decades, the Fed relied on forecasts of inflation to guide its monetary policy, knowing that interest-rate increases or cuts can take months or years to filter through the economy. If the forecasts showed excessive inflation looming, the Fed tightened policy to prevent inflation from rising that much.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，美联储一直依靠通胀预测来指导其货币政策，因为它知道加息或降息可能需要数月或数年的时间才能渗透到经济中。如果预测显示过度通胀迫在眉睫，美联储就会收紧政策以防止通胀上升那么多。</blockquote></p><p> But last August, after more than a decade of below-target inflation, the Fed scrapped that strategy for one that prioritizes a strong labor market. Under the new strategy, if the economy is below full employment, the Fed will wait until it sees evidence of persistently above-target inflation before tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote>但去年8月，在经历了十多年低于目标的通胀后，美联储放弃了这一战略，转而优先考虑强劲的劳动力市场。在新策略下，如果经济低于充分就业，美联储将等到看到通胀持续高于目标的证据后再收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have said since December that they won’t raise interest rates until the labor market has returned to maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to rise moderately higher for some time.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员自去年12月以来一直表示，在劳动力市场恢复到最大就业水平、通胀率升至2%并有望在一段时间内温和走高之前，他们不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> They haven’t said how high they would be comfortable letting inflation go or for how long, but the sheer size of the recent price increases suggests it is on track to meet or exceed the Fed’s target sooner than was expected just a few months ago.</p><p><blockquote>他们没有说他们愿意让通胀上升到多高或持续多长时间，但最近物价上涨的规模表明，美联储有望比几个月前的预期更快地达到或超过美联储的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Central bankers have warned in recent remarks that they would act sooner if inflation becomes a problem.</p><p><blockquote>央行行长们在最近的讲话中警告说，如果通胀成为一个问题，他们将更快采取行动。</blockquote></p><p> Julia Coronado, a former Fed economist and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC, said she doesn’t think recent inflation data call for the Fed to change course.</p><p><blockquote>前美联储经济学家、MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC总裁Julia Coronado表示，她不认为最近的通胀数据是美联储改变路线的看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> “These price pressures are very narrowly focused on things that seem like they will be obviously transitory,” Ms. Coronado said. “Think about this: We are at the most intense moment. It will not get more intense than this. We are reopening. We are blasting stimulus into the economy with a fire hose. We’ve got monetary policy at maximum stimulation.”</p><p><blockquote>科罗纳多女士说：“这些价格压力非常狭隘地集中在那些似乎显然是暂时的事情上。”“想想看：我们正处于最激烈的时刻。不会比这更激烈了。我们正在重新开放。我们正在用消防水管向经济注入刺激措施。我们已经采取了最大程度的刺激货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p> Mark Carney, a veteran central banker who led the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020 and the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, said he sees growing evidence that the tightness in the U.S. labor market and related price pressures could extend beyond the short term.</p><p><blockquote>曾在2013年至2020年领导英国央行和2008年至2013年领导加拿大央行的资深央行行长马克·卡尼表示，他看到越来越多的证据表明，美国劳动力市场的紧张和相关的价格压力可能会超出短期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “The prospect of inflation being above target for longer than the makeup of the past undershoot—I think the balance of risks is headed in that direction at this stage,” Mr. Carney said in a Brookings Institution event Monday.</p><p><blockquote>卡尼周一在布鲁金斯学会的一次活动中表示：“通胀高于目标的时间比过去低于目标的时间还要长——我认为现阶段风险平衡正在朝着这个方向发展。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-rate-climb-adds-impetus-to-fed-policy-shift-11623341429?mod=markets_lead_pos1\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-rate-climb-adds-impetus-to-fed-policy-shift-11623341429?mod=markets_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114956060","content_text":"Central bankers are set to begin talking about easing bond purchases as soaring prices test patience.\n\nWASHINGTON—The recent inflation surge gives Federal Reserve officials further reason to begin discussing an eventual wind-down of their pandemic-driven easy-money policies at their meeting next week.\nA growing number of economists are becoming concerned that the Fed could fall behind the curve on inflation as it seeks to aid the labor market’s recovery. If that happened, the central bank would have to tighten policy more abruptly than economists and market participants currently anticipate, dealing a potential blow to the economy and fueling market volatility.\n“The intensity of the current inflation and the current bottlenecks in supply chains and labor markets is greater than I had anticipated,” said former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, adding that he still shares the central bank’s belief that the inflation pickup is temporary. “But it also could be that the underlying demand-supply balance will not correct as readily or as comfortably as the Fed and I had expected earlier. It’s got my inflation antenna quivering.”\nThe first step in what is expected to be a gradual process of scaling back easy money would be to slow Fed purchases of mortgage and government bonds, something Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said he’s not in a hurry to do.\nConsumerprices rose 5% in Mayfrom a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy components, rose 3.8%, the largest annual jump since 1992. That followed strong price increases in April as well. The Fed seeks 2% inflation over the medium term, though it uses a different index as a gauge.\nCentral bankers note that the recent increase in inflation has been powered by an unusual combination of supply bottlenecks and pent-up demand from consumers emerging from their homes—pressures that should ease on their own later this year.\nBut Thursday’s data raise the stakes for the Fed as it begins to weigh pulling back on stimulative policies rolled out early in the pandemic.\nSince last year, the Fed has held its key overnight interest rate near zero and has been buying at least $120 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds. Its goal is to fuel the economy’s recovery by providing cheap credit.\nEconomists say the easy money is likely exacerbating some of the imbalances that are pushing up prices, since it fuels demand without directly boosting the supply of workers, cars or airplane tickets. A key risk is that price increases become large or persistent enough that consumers and businesses begin to expect and accept higher inflation. If that happens, the Fed would likely have to raise interest rates more than it currently anticipates to bring down those expectations.\nFor decades, the Fed relied on forecasts of inflation to guide its monetary policy, knowing that interest-rate increases or cuts can take months or years to filter through the economy. If the forecasts showed excessive inflation looming, the Fed tightened policy to prevent inflation from rising that much.\nBut last August, after more than a decade of below-target inflation, the Fed scrapped that strategy for one that prioritizes a strong labor market. Under the new strategy, if the economy is below full employment, the Fed will wait until it sees evidence of persistently above-target inflation before tightening policy.\nFed officials have said since December that they won’t raise interest rates until the labor market has returned to maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to rise moderately higher for some time.\nThey haven’t said how high they would be comfortable letting inflation go or for how long, but the sheer size of the recent price increases suggests it is on track to meet or exceed the Fed’s target sooner than was expected just a few months ago.\nCentral bankers have warned in recent remarks that they would act sooner if inflation becomes a problem.\nJulia Coronado, a former Fed economist and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC, said she doesn’t think recent inflation data call for the Fed to change course.\n“These price pressures are very narrowly focused on things that seem like they will be obviously transitory,” Ms. Coronado said. “Think about this: We are at the most intense moment. It will not get more intense than this. We are reopening. We are blasting stimulus into the economy with a fire hose. We’ve got monetary policy at maximum stimulation.”\nMark Carney, a veteran central banker who led the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020 and the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, said he sees growing evidence that the tightness in the U.S. labor market and related price pressures could extend beyond the short term.\n“The prospect of inflation being above target for longer than the makeup of the past undershoot—I think the balance of risks is headed in that direction at this stage,” Mr. Carney said in a Brookings Institution event Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380914669,"gmtCreate":1612503198351,"gmtModify":1703762795378,"author":{"id":"3555077406572366","authorId":"3555077406572366","name":"Tiltedguy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6297b71cc103811214fd585f61f3a8f2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555077406572366","idStr":"3555077406572366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380914669","repostId":"1189425388","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189425388","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612501510,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189425388?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-05 13:05","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Oil prices rise to highest in a year on U.S. growth optimism, crude supply restraint<blockquote>美国经济增长乐观、原油供应受限油价升至一年来最高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189425388","media":"reuters","summary":"Singapore (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Friday to their highest levels in a year, extending a ru","content":"<p>Singapore (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Friday to their highest levels in a year, extending a run of strong gains on signs of economic growth in the United States and a continued commitment by producers to hold back crude supply.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡（路透社）-油价周五攀升至一年来的最高水平，延续了美国经济增长迹象和产油国继续承诺抑制原油供应的强劲涨势。</blockquote></p><p> “Rising confidence in an upturn in economic and oil demand recovery around the corner is a major impetus for crude,” said Vandana Hari, energy analyst at Vanda Insights.</p><p><blockquote>Vanda Insights能源分析师Vandana Hari表示：“人们对经济好转和石油需求复苏的信心不断增强，这是原油的主要推动力。”</blockquote></p><p> “Right now, the concurrent tightening of supply due to the additional Saudi cuts is adding to the tailwinds,” Hari said. “Brent may be well on its way to the $60 milestone.”</p><p><blockquote>哈里表示：“目前，由于沙特额外减产，供应同时收紧，这增加了有利因素。”“布伦特原油可能正在迈向60美元的里程碑。”</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude futures climbed 40 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.24 a barrel by 0428 GMT, after hitting a high of $59.41, its highest since Feb. 20 last year. Brent is on track to rise 6% this week.</p><p><blockquote>截至格林威治时间0428，布伦特原油期货上涨40美分，或0.7%，至每桶59.24美元，此前曾触及59.41美元的高点，为去年2月20日以来的最高水平。布伦特原油本周有望上涨6%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped 42 cents, or 0.8%, to $56.65 a barrel, after touching a high of $56.84, its top since Jan. 22 last year. The benchmark contract is on track for a weekly gain of nearly 9%, which would be its biggest weekly gain since October.</p><p><blockquote>美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货上涨42美分，或0.8%，至每桶56.65美元，此前曾触及56.84美元的高点，为去年1月22日以来的最高水平。该基准合约有望实现近9%的周涨幅，这将是自10月份以来的最大周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> In a sign of tightening crude oil supplies, the six-month backwardation in Brent and WTI futures - when the price for prompt delivery is higher than the price for future delivery - jumped to 13-month highs for both contracts at $2.41 and $2.30 a barrel, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>作为原油供应收紧的迹象，布伦特原油和WTI期货的六个月现货溢价（即即时交割价格高于未来交割价格）跃升至13个月高点，分别为每桶2.41美元和2.30美元。</blockquote></p><p> Markets were encouraged by stronger-than-expected orders for U.S. goods in December, pointing to strength in manufacturing, and hopes for swift approval by lawmakers of President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid plan.</p><p><blockquote>市场受到12月份美国商品订单强于预期的鼓舞，表明制造业强劲，并希望立法者迅速批准总统乔·拜登提出的1.9万亿美元冠状病毒援助计划。</blockquote></p><p> “OPEC+ discipline has been a real positive,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia. The alliance this week reaffirmed its support for deep supply cuts which have helped to bring down swollen global crude stockpiles.</p><p><blockquote>CMC Markets首席市场策略师迈克尔·麦卡锡(Michael McCarthy)表示：“欧佩克+的纪律确实是一个积极因素。”他指的是石油输出国组织和以俄罗斯为首的盟友。该联盟本周重申支持大幅削减供应，这有助于降低全球原油库存。</blockquote></p><p> “And then when we have signs of better economic growth, then it’s up and away (for prices),” said McCarthy.</p><p><blockquote>麦卡锡说：“当我们有经济增长改善的迹象时，（价格）就会上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> Chinese demand for crude oil is also helping support the market, as shown by industry tracking that reports two tankers of North Sea crude oil heading to China for March 22 and March 24, said Axi global market strategist Stephen Innes.</p><p><blockquote>Axi全球市场策略师Stephen Innes表示，中国对原油的需求也有助于支撑市场，行业跟踪显示，3月22日和3月24日有两艘北海原油油轮前往中国。</blockquote></p><p> “When demand drives commodity prices, it has a more bullish impact and leaves a more lasting reflection on price action,” Innes said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>Innes在一份报告中表示：“当需求推动大宗商品价格时，它会产生更看涨的影响，并对价格走势产生更持久的反映。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil prices rise to highest in a year on U.S. growth optimism, crude supply restraint<blockquote>美国经济增长乐观、原油供应受限油价升至一年来最高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil prices rise to highest in a year on U.S. growth optimism, crude supply restraint<blockquote>美国经济增长乐观、原油供应受限油价升至一年来最高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-05 13:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Singapore (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Friday to their highest levels in a year, extending a run of strong gains on signs of economic growth in the United States and a continued commitment by producers to hold back crude supply.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡（路透社）-油价周五攀升至一年来的最高水平，延续了美国经济增长迹象和产油国继续承诺抑制原油供应的强劲涨势。</blockquote></p><p> “Rising confidence in an upturn in economic and oil demand recovery around the corner is a major impetus for crude,” said Vandana Hari, energy analyst at Vanda Insights.</p><p><blockquote>Vanda Insights能源分析师Vandana Hari表示：“人们对经济好转和石油需求复苏的信心不断增强，这是原油的主要推动力。”</blockquote></p><p> “Right now, the concurrent tightening of supply due to the additional Saudi cuts is adding to the tailwinds,” Hari said. “Brent may be well on its way to the $60 milestone.”</p><p><blockquote>哈里表示：“目前，由于沙特额外减产，供应同时收紧，这增加了有利因素。”“布伦特原油可能正在迈向60美元的里程碑。”</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude futures climbed 40 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.24 a barrel by 0428 GMT, after hitting a high of $59.41, its highest since Feb. 20 last year. Brent is on track to rise 6% this week.</p><p><blockquote>截至格林威治时间0428，布伦特原油期货上涨40美分，或0.7%，至每桶59.24美元，此前曾触及59.41美元的高点，为去年2月20日以来的最高水平。布伦特原油本周有望上涨6%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped 42 cents, or 0.8%, to $56.65 a barrel, after touching a high of $56.84, its top since Jan. 22 last year. The benchmark contract is on track for a weekly gain of nearly 9%, which would be its biggest weekly gain since October.</p><p><blockquote>美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货上涨42美分，或0.8%，至每桶56.65美元，此前曾触及56.84美元的高点，为去年1月22日以来的最高水平。该基准合约有望实现近9%的周涨幅，这将是自10月份以来的最大周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> In a sign of tightening crude oil supplies, the six-month backwardation in Brent and WTI futures - when the price for prompt delivery is higher than the price for future delivery - jumped to 13-month highs for both contracts at $2.41 and $2.30 a barrel, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>作为原油供应收紧的迹象，布伦特原油和WTI期货的六个月现货溢价（即即时交割价格高于未来交割价格）跃升至13个月高点，分别为每桶2.41美元和2.30美元。</blockquote></p><p> Markets were encouraged by stronger-than-expected orders for U.S. goods in December, pointing to strength in manufacturing, and hopes for swift approval by lawmakers of President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid plan.</p><p><blockquote>市场受到12月份美国商品订单强于预期的鼓舞，表明制造业强劲，并希望立法者迅速批准总统乔·拜登提出的1.9万亿美元冠状病毒援助计划。</blockquote></p><p> “OPEC+ discipline has been a real positive,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia. The alliance this week reaffirmed its support for deep supply cuts which have helped to bring down swollen global crude stockpiles.</p><p><blockquote>CMC Markets首席市场策略师迈克尔·麦卡锡(Michael McCarthy)表示：“欧佩克+的纪律确实是一个积极因素。”他指的是石油输出国组织和以俄罗斯为首的盟友。该联盟本周重申支持大幅削减供应，这有助于降低全球原油库存。</blockquote></p><p> “And then when we have signs of better economic growth, then it’s up and away (for prices),” said McCarthy.</p><p><blockquote>麦卡锡说：“当我们有经济增长改善的迹象时，（价格）就会上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> Chinese demand for crude oil is also helping support the market, as shown by industry tracking that reports two tankers of North Sea crude oil heading to China for March 22 and March 24, said Axi global market strategist Stephen Innes.</p><p><blockquote>Axi全球市场策略师Stephen Innes表示，中国对原油的需求也有助于支撑市场，行业跟踪显示，3月22日和3月24日有两艘北海原油油轮前往中国。</blockquote></p><p> “When demand drives commodity prices, it has a more bullish impact and leaves a more lasting reflection on price action,” Innes said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>Innes在一份报告中表示：“当需求推动大宗商品价格时，它会产生更看涨的影响，并对价格走势产生更持久的反映。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-prices-rise-to-highest-in-a-year-on-u-s-growth-optimism-crude-supply-restraint-idUSKBN2A508I?il=0\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-prices-rise-to-highest-in-a-year-on-u-s-growth-optimism-crude-supply-restraint-idUSKBN2A508I?il=0","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189425388","content_text":"Singapore (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Friday to their highest levels in a year, extending a run of strong gains on signs of economic growth in the United States and a continued commitment by producers to hold back crude supply.\n“Rising confidence in an upturn in economic and oil demand recovery around the corner is a major impetus for crude,” said Vandana Hari, energy analyst at Vanda Insights.\n“Right now, the concurrent tightening of supply due to the additional Saudi cuts is adding to the tailwinds,” Hari said. “Brent may be well on its way to the $60 milestone.”\nBrent crude futures climbed 40 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.24 a barrel by 0428 GMT, after hitting a high of $59.41, its highest since Feb. 20 last year. Brent is on track to rise 6% this week.\nU.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped 42 cents, or 0.8%, to $56.65 a barrel, after touching a high of $56.84, its top since Jan. 22 last year. The benchmark contract is on track for a weekly gain of nearly 9%, which would be its biggest weekly gain since October.\nIn a sign of tightening crude oil supplies, the six-month backwardation in Brent and WTI futures - when the price for prompt delivery is higher than the price for future delivery - jumped to 13-month highs for both contracts at $2.41 and $2.30 a barrel, respectively.\nMarkets were encouraged by stronger-than-expected orders for U.S. goods in December, pointing to strength in manufacturing, and hopes for swift approval by lawmakers of President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid plan.\n“OPEC+ discipline has been a real positive,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia. The alliance this week reaffirmed its support for deep supply cuts which have helped to bring down swollen global crude stockpiles.\n“And then when we have signs of better economic growth, then it’s up and away (for prices),” said McCarthy.\nChinese demand for crude oil is also helping support the market, as shown by industry tracking that reports two tankers of North Sea crude oil heading to China for March 22 and March 24, said Axi global market strategist Stephen Innes.\n“When demand drives commodity prices, it has a more bullish impact and leaves a more lasting reflection on price action,” Innes said in a note.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}