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joeboh

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- joebohjoeboh
  ·2021-11-03
  $BABA 20211105 165.0 CALL(BABA)$iis it a home run?
  823 评论
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- joebohjoeboh
  ·2021-10-26
  $META MATLS INC PFD SER A(MMTLP)$ii think the shorts are buying back to close their position
  938 评论
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- joebohjoeboh
  ·2021-10-12
  $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$action after lunch
  1,139 评论
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- joebohjoeboh
  ·2021-10-12
  So anyone here going to arbitrage with lobin the hood?
  INVESTOR ALERT: Labaton Sucharow Pursuing Arbitration for Robinhood Trading Restrictions; Traders with Losses Encouraged to Contact the Firm
  NEW YORK, NY / ACCESSWIRE / October 8, 2021 / Labaton Sucharow LLP, a premier securities litigation
  INVESTOR ALERT: Labaton Sucharow Pursuing Arbitration for Robinhood Trading Restrictions; Traders with Losses Encouraged to Contact the Firm
  669 评论
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- joebohjoeboh
  ·2021-10-11
  $LUV 20211022 53.0 PUT(LUV)$ddown down down gogogo
  730 评论
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- joebohjoeboh
  ·2021-10-11
  $Micron Technology(MU)$looking at the chart, in addition with some "fool" write up to say this is a undervalue stock to buy now, I'm gonna buy (scalping) weekly put option for this.
  1,202 1
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- joebohjoeboh
  ·2021-10-11
  Omg, what am I reading........ Get ready for margin call biatch
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  621 评论
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- joebohjoeboh
  ·2021-10-11
  Thanks fool, I'm buying weekly put option
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- joebohjoeboh
  ·2021-10-11
  Still look bearish to me. Moreover it's fool, I'm gonna buy put option for weekly
  Stock Investors Fret Supply Chain Woes Could Knock Earnings
  (Bloomberg) -- Reopening demand and marooned containers have caused bottlenecks across supply chains
  Stock Investors Fret Supply Chain Woes Could Knock Earnings
  998 评论
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- joebohjoeboh
  ·2021-10-10
  I would say that the general market is going down first before more run up in this last quarter. Bearish to me. If this article is suggesting a "buy", hmmm that means a sell for me. I'm going to scalp put option next week's while watching the charts and price action for next week
  Micron: The Most Bullish Downside Guidance Ever
  Summary Investors and analysts pushed their way through Micron's FQ4 report to take in FQ1's guidan
  Micron: The Most Bullish Downside Guidance Ever
  834 评论
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Entertainment(AMC)$action after lunch","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826780081","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826401167,"gmtCreate":1634044720443,"gmtModify":1634044720671,"author":{"id":"3561427313448637","authorId":"3561427313448637","name":"joeboh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d9313b017c1766a8f61be59b97c972","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561427313448637","authorIdStr":"3561427313448637"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So anyone here going to arbitrage with lobin the hood?","listText":"So anyone here going to arbitrage with lobin the hood?","text":"So anyone here going to arbitrage with lobin the hood?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826401167","repostId":"2173925784","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2173925784","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633690800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2173925784?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"INVESTOR ALERT: Labaton Sucharow Pursuing Arbitration for Robinhood Trading Restrictions; Traders with Losses Encouraged to Contact the Firm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2173925784","media":"ACCESSWIRE","summary":"NEW YORK, NY / ACCESSWIRE / October 8, 2021 / Labaton Sucharow LLP, a premier securities litigation ","content":"<html><body><p><strong>NEW YORK, NY / ACCESSWIRE / October 8, 2021 / </strong>Labaton Sucharow LLP, a premier securities litigation law firm, announces it is pursuing claims on behalf of traders using Robinhood who suffered losses in Gamestop (NYSE:GME), AMC (NYSE:AMC), Nokia (NYSE:NOK), BlackBerry, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, Naked Brands, Koss, or Express following Robinhood's decision to restrict trading.</p>\n<img src=\"https://s1.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/DxFtfNkGiVLHkfIkioi1OQ--/cT03NTthcHBpZD15dmlkZW9mZWVkczs-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/accesswire.ca/23ec835e5142f257c085188fdf90565e\"/>\n<p>During the week of January 25, 2021, the price of Gamestop stock increased over 200% due to a large number of individual traders buying the stock, and other stocks saw similar increases. On January 28, Robinhood announced it was restricting its traders from opening new positions in Gamestop, AMC, Nokia, and other stocks. It allowed its customers to sell their positions only and closed other positions without warning. After Robinhood's announcement, the prices of Gamestop, AMC, Nokia, and many other stocks Robinhood restricted plummeted.</p>\n<p>Robinhood traders who held Gamestop, AMC, Nokia, BlackBerry, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, Naked Brands, Koss, or Express stock on January 27, 2021, are encouraged to sign up at https://clientconnect.labaton.com/case/robinhood-trading-restrictions/. Labaton Sucharow can analyze your claim and your losses, negotiate with the company, and pursue your claim in arbitration if necessary.</p>\n<p><strong>About the Firm</strong></p>\n<p>Labaton Sucharow LLP is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world's leading complex litigation firms representing clients in securities, antitrust, corporate governance and shareholder rights, and consumer cybersecurity and data privacy litigation. Labaton Sucharow has been recognized for its excellence by the courts and peers, and it is consistently ranked in leading industry publications. Offices are located in New York, NY, Wilmington, DE, and Washington, D.C. More information about Labaton Sucharow is available at https://www.labaton.com/.</p>\n<p><strong>CONTACT:</strong></p>\n<p>Labaton Sucharow LLP<br/>888-909-7222<br/>info@labaton.com</p>\n<p><strong>SOURCE: </strong>Labaton Sucharow LLP</p>\n<br/>\n<br/>View source version on accesswire.com: \n<br/>\nhttps://www.accesswire.com/667224/INVESTOR-ALERT-Labaton-Sucharow-Pursuing-Arbitration-for-Robinhood-Trading-Restrictions-Traders-with-Losses-Encouraged-to-Contact-the-Firm\n<br/>\n<br/>\n<img height=\"0\" src=\"https://www.accesswire.com/img.ashx?id=667224\" width=\"0\"/></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>INVESTOR ALERT: Labaton Sucharow Pursuing Arbitration for Robinhood Trading Restrictions; 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color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nINVESTOR ALERT: Labaton Sucharow Pursuing Arbitration for Robinhood Trading Restrictions; Traders with Losses Encouraged to Contact the Firm\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 19:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investor-alert-labaton-sucharow-pursuing-110000345.html><strong>ACCESSWIRE</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NEW YORK, NY / ACCESSWIRE / October 8, 2021 / Labaton Sucharow LLP, a premier securities litigation law firm, announces it is pursuing claims on behalf of traders using Robinhood who suffered losses ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investor-alert-labaton-sucharow-pursuing-110000345.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/WehxrOQtSTBvqHSbYMmuOQ--~B/aD0xODA7dz0xODA7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/w1QdrEaIVkOpX9JrJ4ACiw--~B/aD0xODA7dz0xODA7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/accesswire.ca/23ec835e5142f257c085188fdf90565e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investor-alert-labaton-sucharow-pursuing-110000345.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2173925784","content_text":"NEW YORK, NY / ACCESSWIRE / October 8, 2021 / Labaton Sucharow LLP, a premier securities litigation law firm, announces it is pursuing claims on behalf of traders using Robinhood who suffered losses in Gamestop (NYSE:GME), AMC (NYSE:AMC), Nokia (NYSE:NOK), BlackBerry, Bed Bath & Beyond, Naked Brands, Koss, or Express following Robinhood's decision to restrict trading.\n\nDuring the week of January 25, 2021, the price of Gamestop stock increased over 200% due to a large number of individual traders buying the stock, and other stocks saw similar increases. On January 28, Robinhood announced it was restricting its traders from opening new positions in Gamestop, AMC, Nokia, and other stocks. It allowed its customers to sell their positions only and closed other positions without warning. After Robinhood's announcement, the prices of Gamestop, AMC, Nokia, and many other stocks Robinhood restricted plummeted.\nRobinhood traders who held Gamestop, AMC, Nokia, BlackBerry, Bed Bath & Beyond, Naked Brands, Koss, or Express stock on January 27, 2021, are encouraged to sign up at https://clientconnect.labaton.com/case/robinhood-trading-restrictions/. Labaton Sucharow can analyze your claim and your losses, negotiate with the company, and pursue your claim in arbitration if necessary.\nAbout the Firm\nLabaton Sucharow LLP is one of the world's leading complex litigation firms representing clients in securities, antitrust, corporate governance and shareholder rights, and consumer cybersecurity and data privacy litigation. Labaton Sucharow has been recognized for its excellence by the courts and peers, and it is consistently ranked in leading industry publications. Offices are located in New York, NY, Wilmington, DE, and Washington, D.C. More information about Labaton Sucharow is available at https://www.labaton.com/.\nCONTACT:\nLabaton Sucharow LLP888-909-7222info@labaton.com\nSOURCE: Labaton Sucharow LLP\n\nView source version on accesswire.com: \n\nhttps://www.accesswire.com/667224/INVESTOR-ALERT-Labaton-Sucharow-Pursuing-Arbitration-for-Robinhood-Trading-Restrictions-Traders-with-Losses-Encouraged-to-Contact-the-Firm","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826965807,"gmtCreate":1633965776713,"gmtModify":1633965776783,"author":{"id":"3561427313448637","authorId":"3561427313448637","name":"joeboh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d9313b017c1766a8f61be59b97c972","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561427313448637","authorIdStr":"3561427313448637"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$LUV 20211022 53.0 PUT(LUV)$</a>ddown down down gogogo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$LUV 20211022 53.0 PUT(LUV)$</a>ddown down down gogogo","text":"$LUV 20211022 53.0 PUT(LUV)$ddown down down gogogo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70faf4c3335401d3fc0ad5e6fd21a87f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826965807","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826000636,"gmtCreate":1633954140881,"gmtModify":1633957740023,"author":{"id":"3561427313448637","authorId":"3561427313448637","name":"joeboh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d9313b017c1766a8f61be59b97c972","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561427313448637","authorIdStr":"3561427313448637"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>looking at the chart, in addition with some \"fool\" write up to say this is a undervalue stock to buy now, I'm gonna buy (scalping)&nbsp;weekly put option for this.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>looking at the chart, in addition with some \"fool\" write up to say this is a undervalue stock to buy now, I'm gonna buy (scalping)&nbsp;weekly put option for this.&nbsp;","text":"$Micron Technology(MU)$looking at the chart, in addition with some \"fool\" write up to say this is a undervalue stock to buy now, I'm gonna buy (scalping) weekly put option for this.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826000636","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828775725,"gmtCreate":1633953952277,"gmtModify":1633953952347,"author":{"id":"3561427313448637","authorId":"3561427313448637","name":"joeboh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d9313b017c1766a8f61be59b97c972","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561427313448637","authorIdStr":"3561427313448637"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg, what am I reading........ Get ready for margin call biatch","listText":"Omg, what am I reading........ Get ready for margin call biatch","text":"Omg, what am I reading........ Get ready for margin call biatch","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828775725","repostId":"2174979797","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828710006,"gmtCreate":1633944684465,"gmtModify":1633948789289,"author":{"id":"3561427313448637","authorId":"3561427313448637","name":"joeboh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d9313b017c1766a8f61be59b97c972","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561427313448637","authorIdStr":"3561427313448637"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks fool, I'm buying weekly put option","listText":"Thanks fool, I'm buying weekly put option","text":"Thanks fool, I'm buying weekly put option","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828710006","repostId":"2174697979","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828737874,"gmtCreate":1633944629838,"gmtModify":1633948789241,"author":{"id":"3561427313448637","authorId":"3561427313448637","name":"joeboh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d9313b017c1766a8f61be59b97c972","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561427313448637","authorIdStr":"3561427313448637"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still look bearish to me. Moreover it's fool, I'm gonna buy put option for weekly","listText":"Still look bearish to me. Moreover it's fool, I'm gonna buy put option for weekly","text":"Still look bearish to me. Moreover it's fool, I'm gonna buy put option for weekly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828737874","repostId":"1138135043","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138135043","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633909454,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138135043?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 07:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Investors Fret Supply Chain Woes Could Knock Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138135043","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Reopening demand and marooned containers have caused bottlenecks across supply chains","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Reopening demand and marooned containers have caused bottlenecks across supply chains just as the holiday shopping season kicks off in North America. It’s also prompting downgrades across analysts estimates for the upcoming earnings season.</p>\n<p>Few expect the supply snarls to end this year as an energy crisis stokes inflation fears. Caution abounds in the semiconductor, retail and raw material space.</p>\n<p>“The supply-chain problems are going to stay, leading to substantially higher prices, and major dislocations in parts of markets no <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is expecting,” said George <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLL\">Ball</a>, chairman of Houston-based investment firm Sanders Morris <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRS\">Harris</a>. “Almost all segments of the economy that are not pure service or pure technology driven will be struggling with supply-chain issues for a long time.”</p>\n<p>The Many Reasons Why Global Supply Chains Have Become So Snarled</p>\n<p>Here are some challenges and opportunities identified by investors for key sectors ahead of the earnings season:</p>\n<p>Semi Snags</p>\n<p>For the semiconductor industry, expectations are for more capacity to only trickle in by the latter part of 2022 due to factory closures and longer delivery times. A power crunch in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> could also worsen the situation as it shuts down factories.</p>\n<p>However, with hubs such as Malaysia reopening, the pricing power of some companies could weaken particularly at a time material costs such as silicon are soaring.</p>\n<p>Prices for DRAM and NAND chips already appear to be peaking, and 12-month forward earnings estimates for chipmaking giants Samsung Electronics Ltd., <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a> Inc. and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> Corp. have fluctuated or fallen in the past two months. Shares are down around 20% or more from recent peaks.</p>\n<p>“Even though many of them have had revenues surge to all-time records, the stocks have not followed suit,” said Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland. “That tells me that at this point some of this consternation is baked into shares more broadly.”</p>\n<p>The World Is Short of Computer Chips. Here’s Why: QuickTake</p>\n<p>Auto Woes</p>\n<p>Chip shortages are also behind the estimated $210 billion in lost sales for carmakers this year. Many have reported a slump in revenues in the third quarter, worsened by shipping logjams and port congestion. However, with the industry’s troubles well documented, some analysts see most of the downside already priced in.</p>\n<p>“We see 3Q as likely being the trough in terms of auto production” in the U.S. although there could be multiple guidance cuts by suppliers, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts including Adam Jonas wrote Wednesday. “But production cuts seem well telegraphed, so don’t be surprised to see investors buy the 3Q chip dip.”</p>\n<p>The MSCI AC World Automobiles &amp; Components Index has been climbing toward a seven-month relative high against the broader market since late August.</p>\n<p>Carmakers such as Tesla Inc. and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a> Motor Corp. appear to be handling the shortages better than others, with the Japanese carmaker reporting a 1.4% increase in sales in the latest quarter.</p>\n<p>“Toyota has managed their chip supply very well so far” because they’ve been addressing supplier relationships differently after an earthquake earlier this year halted production, said Tineke Frikkee, head of U.K. equity research at Waverton Investment Management.</p>\n<p>The Wait for Semiconductors Turns Ominous for Automakers</p>\n<p>Retail Trouble</p>\n<p>A 66% plunge in bellwether Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. shares since early June exemplifies the problems facing retailers globally, with multiple choke points in their supply chains just as they need to stock up for the most important time of the year. A gauge of the sector is trailing the broader market by more than seven percentage points this half, as companies cut forecasts for sales and profitability.</p>\n<p>The challenges will “modestly” impact margins for the third quarter and have a more significant effect in the next, which captures the holiday season, said Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernandez.</p>\n<p>Making matters worse are factory closures. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a> Inc. lowered its sales forecast in late September due to shutdowns in Vietnam, where tens of thousands of workers are now leaving the factory heartland. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DECK\">Deckers Outdoor</a> Corp., Skechers U.S.A. Inc., Adidas AG and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UA.C\">Under Armour</a> Inc. also have at least a quarter of their production in Vietnam, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Tom Nikic.</p>\n<p>“That said, the most-exposed stocks are down ~20% on average since mid-August, so we think investors have digested most of these issues,” Nikic wrote in a note Monday.</p>\n<p>Raw Pain</p>\n<p>What’s making matters worse for margins is a supply crunch within the commodity sector, driving raw material costs even higher for businesses already dealing with logistics issues.</p>\n<p>“The next supply and demand disruption is on the energy front,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “We may see further supply issues if energy rationing becomes more widespread.”</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>’s Global Earnings Revision Index -- a worldwide measure of analyst upgrades minus downgrades of profit expectations -- is plummeting toward negative territory after hitting an all-time high in May.</p>\n<p>Cotton climbed near a fresh decade high on Thursday, while decarbonization policies in China and India have led to an acute coal crunch and Europe’s natural gas prices are skyrocketing.</p>\n<p>Still, energy shortages and high oil prices should be a positive for green energy producers, electric vehicles, the battery industry, and the entire green energy supply chain, said Willem Sels, chief investment officer of private banking and wealth management at HSBC Holdings Plc.</p>\n<p>Not Spared</p>\n<p>Industrial and construction firms are expected to warn about supply-chain troubles as they begin reporting third-quarter results later this month. Supermarkets to consumer staples firms to e-commerce companies are dealing with a shortage of truck drivers in parts of the world.</p>\n<p>And shippers still face a lack of cargo containers at the right place for the right price.</p>\n<p>“The broader industrials, the food sector and the construction industry have largely been left unscathed and are vulnerable to some more correction to reflect the risks,” said Sanders Morris Harris’s Ball.</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Investors Fret Supply Chain Woes Could Knock Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Investors Fret Supply Chain Woes Could Knock Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-11 07:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-investors-fret-supply-chain-200000869.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Reopening demand and marooned containers have caused bottlenecks across supply chains just as the holiday shopping season kicks off in North America. It’s also prompting downgrades ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-investors-fret-supply-chain-200000869.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","ISBC":"投资者银行","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-investors-fret-supply-chain-200000869.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138135043","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Reopening demand and marooned containers have caused bottlenecks across supply chains just as the holiday shopping season kicks off in North America. It’s also prompting downgrades across analysts estimates for the upcoming earnings season.\nFew expect the supply snarls to end this year as an energy crisis stokes inflation fears. Caution abounds in the semiconductor, retail and raw material space.\n“The supply-chain problems are going to stay, leading to substantially higher prices, and major dislocations in parts of markets no one is expecting,” said George Ball, chairman of Houston-based investment firm Sanders Morris Harris. “Almost all segments of the economy that are not pure service or pure technology driven will be struggling with supply-chain issues for a long time.”\nThe Many Reasons Why Global Supply Chains Have Become So Snarled\nHere are some challenges and opportunities identified by investors for key sectors ahead of the earnings season:\nSemi Snags\nFor the semiconductor industry, expectations are for more capacity to only trickle in by the latter part of 2022 due to factory closures and longer delivery times. A power crunch in China could also worsen the situation as it shuts down factories.\nHowever, with hubs such as Malaysia reopening, the pricing power of some companies could weaken particularly at a time material costs such as silicon are soaring.\nPrices for DRAM and NAND chips already appear to be peaking, and 12-month forward earnings estimates for chipmaking giants Samsung Electronics Ltd., Micron Technology Inc. and Intel Corp. have fluctuated or fallen in the past two months. Shares are down around 20% or more from recent peaks.\n“Even though many of them have had revenues surge to all-time records, the stocks have not followed suit,” said Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland. “That tells me that at this point some of this consternation is baked into shares more broadly.”\nThe World Is Short of Computer Chips. Here’s Why: QuickTake\nAuto Woes\nChip shortages are also behind the estimated $210 billion in lost sales for carmakers this year. Many have reported a slump in revenues in the third quarter, worsened by shipping logjams and port congestion. However, with the industry’s troubles well documented, some analysts see most of the downside already priced in.\n“We see 3Q as likely being the trough in terms of auto production” in the U.S. although there could be multiple guidance cuts by suppliers, Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Jonas wrote Wednesday. “But production cuts seem well telegraphed, so don’t be surprised to see investors buy the 3Q chip dip.”\nThe MSCI AC World Automobiles & Components Index has been climbing toward a seven-month relative high against the broader market since late August.\nCarmakers such as Tesla Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. appear to be handling the shortages better than others, with the Japanese carmaker reporting a 1.4% increase in sales in the latest quarter.\n“Toyota has managed their chip supply very well so far” because they’ve been addressing supplier relationships differently after an earthquake earlier this year halted production, said Tineke Frikkee, head of U.K. equity research at Waverton Investment Management.\nThe Wait for Semiconductors Turns Ominous for Automakers\nRetail Trouble\nA 66% plunge in bellwether Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. shares since early June exemplifies the problems facing retailers globally, with multiple choke points in their supply chains just as they need to stock up for the most important time of the year. A gauge of the sector is trailing the broader market by more than seven percentage points this half, as companies cut forecasts for sales and profitability.\nThe challenges will “modestly” impact margins for the third quarter and have a more significant effect in the next, which captures the holiday season, said Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernandez.\nMaking matters worse are factory closures. Nike Inc. lowered its sales forecast in late September due to shutdowns in Vietnam, where tens of thousands of workers are now leaving the factory heartland. Deckers Outdoor Corp., Skechers U.S.A. Inc., Adidas AG and Under Armour Inc. also have at least a quarter of their production in Vietnam, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Tom Nikic.\n“That said, the most-exposed stocks are down ~20% on average since mid-August, so we think investors have digested most of these issues,” Nikic wrote in a note Monday.\nRaw Pain\nWhat’s making matters worse for margins is a supply crunch within the commodity sector, driving raw material costs even higher for businesses already dealing with logistics issues.\n“The next supply and demand disruption is on the energy front,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “We may see further supply issues if energy rationing becomes more widespread.”\nCitigroup’s Global Earnings Revision Index -- a worldwide measure of analyst upgrades minus downgrades of profit expectations -- is plummeting toward negative territory after hitting an all-time high in May.\nCotton climbed near a fresh decade high on Thursday, while decarbonization policies in China and India have led to an acute coal crunch and Europe’s natural gas prices are skyrocketing.\nStill, energy shortages and high oil prices should be a positive for green energy producers, electric vehicles, the battery industry, and the entire green energy supply chain, said Willem Sels, chief investment officer of private banking and wealth management at HSBC Holdings Plc.\nNot Spared\nIndustrial and construction firms are expected to warn about supply-chain troubles as they begin reporting third-quarter results later this month. Supermarkets to consumer staples firms to e-commerce companies are dealing with a shortage of truck drivers in parts of the world.\nAnd shippers still face a lack of cargo containers at the right place for the right price.\n“The broader industrials, the food sector and the construction industry have largely been left unscathed and are vulnerable to some more correction to reflect the risks,” said Sanders Morris Harris’s Ball.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828332502,"gmtCreate":1633842157648,"gmtModify":1633842157761,"author":{"id":"3561427313448637","authorId":"3561427313448637","name":"joeboh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d9313b017c1766a8f61be59b97c972","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561427313448637","authorIdStr":"3561427313448637"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I would say that the general market is going down first before more run up in this last quarter. Bearish to me. If this article is suggesting a \"buy\", hmmm that means a sell for me. I'm going to scalp put option next week's while watching the charts and price action for next week","listText":"I would say that the general market is going down first before more run up in this last quarter. Bearish to me. If this article is suggesting a \"buy\", hmmm that means a sell for me. I'm going to scalp put option next week's while watching the charts and price action for next week","text":"I would say that the general market is going down first before more run up in this last quarter. Bearish to me. If this article is suggesting a \"buy\", hmmm that means a sell for me. I'm going to scalp put option next week's while watching the charts and price action for next week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828332502","repostId":"1106771486","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1106771486","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633657257,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106771486?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 09:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron: The Most Bullish Downside Guidance Ever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106771486","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nInvestors and analysts pushed their way through Micron's FQ4 report to take in FQ1's guidan","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Investors and analysts pushed their way through Micron's FQ4 report to take in FQ1's guidance.</li>\n <li>The headlines saw sequentially lower and consensus missing revenue and earnings per share.</li>\n <li>However, I found four specific pieces of the guide that tell an utterly bullish story.</li>\n <li>The narrative Micron is entering a downcycle is not apparent to management as it forecasts record yearly revenue with corroborating numbers.</li>\n <li>The FQ1 guide marks the end of the stock's drop and the beginning of the recovery, all before contract DRAM pricing even moves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2240a243910ff9b4e28170b6bf8029\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chiradech/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>The focus on Micron's (MU) FQ4 earnings has been its FQ1 guidance. And for good reason, too, as everyone wanted to understand if calendar Q4 would have softer DRAM pricing, leading to weakness at the company. In the end, all the market saw was the sequentially lower guide in terms of revenue and earnings per share, seemingly confirming the bearish fear. But, have you noticed the market didn't crater on earnings - I mean actually crater, not drop a mere 3%? That's because under the covers of the conference call and guide were bullish headlines, more than if the company guided at or above consensus numbers. FQ1's guide marks the bottom in the stock as the call contained the most bullish numbers and forecasting I've ever heard Micron management utter. Therefore, don't look past Micron's FQ1 guidance; embrace it because it tells a very, very bullish future.</p>\n<p><b>More Bullish Than Sequential Growth</b></p>\n<p>The focus of this article is not FQ4. It's apparent the company cleared the bar on revenue, produced outsized return in terms of EPS, and met the top end of guidance on gross margins. The fact is the quarter was expected to be robust, and it delivered. Over the last few months, the market turmoil has been around expectations for FQ1 - and beyond - and if DRAM pricing would soften. A softening DRAM (and NAND) pricing market hurts Micron's ability to produce outsized revenue and net income.</p>\n<p>To this end, conferences leading up to the earnings report were structured to portray PC and consumer DRAM as seeing \"some pockets\" of inventory above normal levels as component shortages in certain areas held up final assembly of products on the OEM side. As a result, this was one reason to expect things to be weaker leading up to the FQ4 report than what consensus was portraying with sequentially higher revenue and earnings.</p>\n<p>That being said, the perceived weakness via a lower sequential guide quarter-to-quarter in revenue and earnings masked the bullishness management indicated not just by words but by numbers in the guide below the surface. As a refresher, the company guided FQ1 for $7.65B in revenue at the midpoint compared to FQ4's $8.27B along with $2.10 in EPS compared to the $2.42 it just reported. It also guided for gross margins of 47% +/- 1% versus 47.9% in FQ4.</p>\n<p>Saying things like \"we expect record revenue in FY22\" doesn't jive with a downturn in the memory cycle. But one must dig deeper than the headlines to understand there are four specific reasons why this quarter is not a foreshadowing of more weakness and an end to an up-cycle that never got wind in its sails. Those reasons are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Days of inventory (DOI) will remain under optimal levels</li>\n <li>CapEx foreshadows greater revenue</li>\n <li>\"Record\" FY22 revenue</li>\n <li>Gross margins were guided the same as FQ4</li>\n</ul>\n<p>These four pillars set investors up to buy shares while the beating is at its worst for a very lucrative investment just six months from now. Join me in detailing each tenant of this bullishness.</p>\n<p><b>Micron's Days Of Inventory</b></p>\n<p>There are a few key metrics to always look at to see how the memory supply and demand dynamic is playing out in as close to real-time as you can get. One of the biggest is days of inventory and overall producer inventory across the industry. CFO Dave Zinsner said the company exited FQ4 with 94 DOI, below the optimal level of 100 days. This means Micron has very few finished goods to supply the market; there isn't any excess to sell, and everything depends on the manufacturing line. But the key part here is the company doesn't expect to get to the optimal level until<i>the end of FY22.</i></p>\n<p>Pause. Think about that for a second.</p>\n<p>If the company can't replenish its inventory for three or four more quarters, it means there isn't any supply able to be allocated to it for quite a while.</p>\n<p>But allow me to go a level deeper.</p>\n<p>What's in the calculation for DOI? Well, at the second level, it's the cost of goods sold. There are two ways DOIs are pressured or go down. If the cost of inventory on the balance sheet decreases, DOI will - obviously - go down, COGS remaining equal. If COGS go up, DOI will also go down. In either situation, there are bullish underpinnings causing it.</p>\n<p>If the company expects DOI to remain steady, it means one of two things. Either inventory on the balance sheet will remain the same and COGS will remain the same, or inventory will increase proportionally to COGS. And since the company expects an even better year than FY21, we can conclude inventory and COGS will be rising together. And from that, COGS only rises when revenue rises or when costs increase disproportionately. So, considering management expects costs to come down by a few percentage points each quarter, revenue has to be growing quite a lot to bring the absolute dollar amount of COGS higher.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the company cannot increase its inventory faster than its revenue growth (increasing COGS), which means it does not expect the market to slow down for it to catch up. And even then, it sounds like COGS will inch lower toward the end of the year more disproportionately from revenue growth when some headwinds from COVID-19 on the back-end packaging and testing ease and when front-end cost-downs from node transitions fully mature.</p>\n<p>So, analyzing DOI touches on two significant facets of Micron's business: inventory and revenue. Remember, inventory rises in down parts of cycles. But, inventory is expected to be under pressure for the majority of the fiscal year, and even after that, only expected to be at \"normal\" levels (around 100 days).</p>\n<p><b>CapEx Guides FY22 Revenue</b></p>\n<p>The first thing the market likely saw was the \"dramatic\" increase in CapEx for FY22 over FY21. FY21 saw $9.7B in CapEx, and the company is guiding for $11-$12B in CapEx for FY22. And just when everyone is thinking demand is going to wane, Micron is poised to push CapEx higher by 18.5% this fiscal year.</p>\n<p>Sound the alarms!</p>\n<p>But, put it into context. Remember&nbsp;when Micron's CFO Dave Zinsner said CapEx would generally be 30-35% of revenue&nbsp;each fiscal year?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>...what we're trying to do from a CapEx intensity is invest somewhere between 30% and 35% of revenue.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n - Barclays Americas Select Franchise Virtual Conference, May 19th, 2021\n</blockquote>\n<p>Simply taking $11.5B and backing into revenue figures gives us a high-level guide for FY22. That exercise gets us $32.86B for 35% of revenue and $38.35B for 30%. Let's take the low end of revenue and compare it to the year we just had. FY21 finished with $27.71B in revenue, so we're looking at an 18.5% revenue increase, the same amount CapEx is being raised - which was evident based on algebra - so, at the very least, we're expecting over $32B in revenue for FY22.</p>\n<p>That amount of revenue doesn't foreshadow a downturn.</p>\n<p>But allow me to drill down further to prove a repeated point I've made about&nbsp;not all CapEx being bearish. The increase is primarily set to be in NAND as NAND has been purposely underinvested as it transitioned to replacement gate in FY20. In FY21, it was bumped a bit, but now management is saying NAND will be back at full investment. At the same time, DRAM equipment manufacturing CapEx will be<i>down</i>year-over-year.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, we continue to hear no new wafer starts. The company believes it's still several years away from needing additional wafer starts to supply the demand environment of the future. So with higher CapEx going toward more expensive equipment like EUV and more pilot programs and not much toward increases in bit supply beyond node transitions, the disciplined supply program rages on.</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's hard to argue an increase in CapEx absolutely means throwing off the supply and demand balance in the memory market. Not only is the key the link between revenue and CapEx, but additional investments in back-end packaging and testing only provide upside to the company's margins later on. Add in equipment, like EUV, being very expensive, and it's easy to see higher CapEx isn't what it used to mean. In fact, it likely means a<i>better</i>year ahead.</p>\n<p><b>Micron Forecasts Record FY22 Revenue</b></p>\n<p>When a company discusses record numbers, it means higher numbers - higher than ever. Micron is giving full-year guidance by saying it sees record revenue in FY22. This is not something I've ever heard this management team say before. Who flipped the confidence button in the board room?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Bit shipping growth will resume in the second half of the fiscal year,</i>\n <i><b>and we're planning to deliver record revenue with solid profitability</b></i>\n <i>in fiscal 2022.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n - Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO, FQ4 '21&nbsp;Earnings Call\n</blockquote>\n<p>Record revenue would mean exceeding the last upcycle in FY18, where the company did $30.39B in revenue. This agrees with my expectations from the CapEx calculations, where the company is shooting for ~$32B in revenue. This would also mean a prolonged decline in pricing is not possible as pricing is a significant factor in Micron's revenue and profitability. If customer inventories remained high past the 2021 calendar year, pricing declines would set in enough that FQ1 would be the highest revenue quarter for FY22 at $7.65B. Even if FQ1 were annualized, it would only amount to $30.6B. Yes, enough to qualify as record revenue, but not if pricing declines have yet to set in. If DRAM pricing is set to collapse, $7.65B would be the high watermark and likely see revenue closer to $7B and $6.5B in quarters as the year goes on. This wouldn't even amount to $27.65B and would come in under what FY21 just amounted to ($27.71B).</p>\n<p>Considering the confidence to provide full-year guidance (unheard of) along with a dividend, I'd say management has some decent visibility into the demand picture for this new year. What it says about \"<i>small</i>pockets\" of higher customer inventory must be accurate if this is the case.</p>\n<p><b>Micron's Gross Margins, The Pièce De Résistance</b></p>\n<p>The best news to come out of the guide was the gross margin guidance. In what I find to be the most impressive part of FQ1's guidance, the gross margin guide exactly mirrors what the FQ4 guide was: 47.0% +/- 1%. With revenue set to be sequentially down 7.5% and EPS down ~13%, gross margins coming in the same was not expected but was very bullish.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fd6739003fb5a9caf8bf0b4acd2e178\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"146\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha's version of Micron's FQ3 '21 Press Release</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20976546c4e61e92cb40e694b4ae4542\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"189\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha's version of Micron's FQ4 '21 Press Release</span></p>\n<p>How is that possible? I wondered the same thing.</p>\n<p>Clearly, pricing isn't going to be coming down much in FQ1 for many of its products, if at all.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>While we will benefit from our node transitions on both DRAM and NAND, we will continue to see near-term headwinds from COVID-related expenses in assembly and packaging. As a result, we expect the gross margins in FQ1</i>&nbsp;\n <i><b>to be largely a function of the mix</b></i>\n <i>.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n - Dave Zinsner\n</blockquote>\n<p>If it's dependent on the mix and the gross margins will be identical, well, there must be some product reason. More specifically, the mix must be shifting toward DRAM and more so toward server and cloud, where margins are inherently higher. Having less PC and consumer DRAM can be a blessing in disguise as it doesn't weigh on gross margins due to the thinner margins they tend to carry.</p>\n<p>I can't stress enough how vital the gross margin guide is here as normal circumstances contend a decline in bits shipped and/or average selling prices (ASPs) reduces gross margins with it. However, the mix is working in its favor and reveals many diverse end markets with solid demand remaining elsewhere for CQ4.</p>\n<p>Remember, the market has been hammering the stock due to<i>PC DRAM</i>pricing weakening. The focus on PC DRAM is causing a red herring for investors. Micron is proving weak PC DRAM might take away some revenue with this guide, but other end markets are staying solid and keeping things afloat. Read as: the theory of dependency on PC DRAM has overstayed its welcome.</p>\n<p><b>MU Stock - Not So Bad After All</b></p>\n<p>We wouldn't have been able to glean some of these bullish tenants if Micron guided sequentially higher for FQ1. The diversification away from PC and the robustness of other end markets would have been masked if things went status quo. But because of the weakness in one end market, it opened the window to see how well and how diversified Micron's business has become. When PC is showing weakness, it no longer means everything else must be weak also.</p>\n<p>This is probably the most bullish downgrade I've seen with Micron over the last several years, if not the most bullish. The tone of Mehrotra and Zinsner was very upbeat, not usual for a team that has guided down before. I remember hearing despair and shakiness in their tone in prior similar situations, but not this time. The team truly believes the coming weakness in pricing, albeit small, will be a short-lived event where the continued strength in demand will continue on the other side.</p>\n<p>I'm inclined to build my Micron position here, given that in just a few short months, the market will start bringing in to view the other side of this PC DRAM pricing blip. And when it does, the stock price will rise in anticipation of it coming to fruition, just like it did for this expected weakness in calendar Q4.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron: The Most Bullish Downside Guidance Ever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron: The Most Bullish Downside Guidance Ever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 09:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458815-micron-the-most-bullish-downside-guidance-ever><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nInvestors and analysts pushed their way through Micron's FQ4 report to take in FQ1's guidance.\nThe headlines saw sequentially lower and consensus missing revenue and earnings per share.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458815-micron-the-most-bullish-downside-guidance-ever\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458815-micron-the-most-bullish-downside-guidance-ever","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106771486","content_text":"Summary\n\nInvestors and analysts pushed their way through Micron's FQ4 report to take in FQ1's guidance.\nThe headlines saw sequentially lower and consensus missing revenue and earnings per share.\nHowever, I found four specific pieces of the guide that tell an utterly bullish story.\nThe narrative Micron is entering a downcycle is not apparent to management as it forecasts record yearly revenue with corroborating numbers.\nThe FQ1 guide marks the end of the stock's drop and the beginning of the recovery, all before contract DRAM pricing even moves.\n\nChiradech/iStock via Getty Images\nThe focus on Micron's (MU) FQ4 earnings has been its FQ1 guidance. And for good reason, too, as everyone wanted to understand if calendar Q4 would have softer DRAM pricing, leading to weakness at the company. In the end, all the market saw was the sequentially lower guide in terms of revenue and earnings per share, seemingly confirming the bearish fear. But, have you noticed the market didn't crater on earnings - I mean actually crater, not drop a mere 3%? That's because under the covers of the conference call and guide were bullish headlines, more than if the company guided at or above consensus numbers. FQ1's guide marks the bottom in the stock as the call contained the most bullish numbers and forecasting I've ever heard Micron management utter. Therefore, don't look past Micron's FQ1 guidance; embrace it because it tells a very, very bullish future.\nMore Bullish Than Sequential Growth\nThe focus of this article is not FQ4. It's apparent the company cleared the bar on revenue, produced outsized return in terms of EPS, and met the top end of guidance on gross margins. The fact is the quarter was expected to be robust, and it delivered. Over the last few months, the market turmoil has been around expectations for FQ1 - and beyond - and if DRAM pricing would soften. A softening DRAM (and NAND) pricing market hurts Micron's ability to produce outsized revenue and net income.\nTo this end, conferences leading up to the earnings report were structured to portray PC and consumer DRAM as seeing \"some pockets\" of inventory above normal levels as component shortages in certain areas held up final assembly of products on the OEM side. As a result, this was one reason to expect things to be weaker leading up to the FQ4 report than what consensus was portraying with sequentially higher revenue and earnings.\nThat being said, the perceived weakness via a lower sequential guide quarter-to-quarter in revenue and earnings masked the bullishness management indicated not just by words but by numbers in the guide below the surface. As a refresher, the company guided FQ1 for $7.65B in revenue at the midpoint compared to FQ4's $8.27B along with $2.10 in EPS compared to the $2.42 it just reported. It also guided for gross margins of 47% +/- 1% versus 47.9% in FQ4.\nSaying things like \"we expect record revenue in FY22\" doesn't jive with a downturn in the memory cycle. But one must dig deeper than the headlines to understand there are four specific reasons why this quarter is not a foreshadowing of more weakness and an end to an up-cycle that never got wind in its sails. Those reasons are:\n\nDays of inventory (DOI) will remain under optimal levels\nCapEx foreshadows greater revenue\n\"Record\" FY22 revenue\nGross margins were guided the same as FQ4\n\nThese four pillars set investors up to buy shares while the beating is at its worst for a very lucrative investment just six months from now. Join me in detailing each tenant of this bullishness.\nMicron's Days Of Inventory\nThere are a few key metrics to always look at to see how the memory supply and demand dynamic is playing out in as close to real-time as you can get. One of the biggest is days of inventory and overall producer inventory across the industry. CFO Dave Zinsner said the company exited FQ4 with 94 DOI, below the optimal level of 100 days. This means Micron has very few finished goods to supply the market; there isn't any excess to sell, and everything depends on the manufacturing line. But the key part here is the company doesn't expect to get to the optimal level untilthe end of FY22.\nPause. Think about that for a second.\nIf the company can't replenish its inventory for three or four more quarters, it means there isn't any supply able to be allocated to it for quite a while.\nBut allow me to go a level deeper.\nWhat's in the calculation for DOI? Well, at the second level, it's the cost of goods sold. There are two ways DOIs are pressured or go down. If the cost of inventory on the balance sheet decreases, DOI will - obviously - go down, COGS remaining equal. If COGS go up, DOI will also go down. In either situation, there are bullish underpinnings causing it.\nIf the company expects DOI to remain steady, it means one of two things. Either inventory on the balance sheet will remain the same and COGS will remain the same, or inventory will increase proportionally to COGS. And since the company expects an even better year than FY21, we can conclude inventory and COGS will be rising together. And from that, COGS only rises when revenue rises or when costs increase disproportionately. So, considering management expects costs to come down by a few percentage points each quarter, revenue has to be growing quite a lot to bring the absolute dollar amount of COGS higher.\nTherefore, the company cannot increase its inventory faster than its revenue growth (increasing COGS), which means it does not expect the market to slow down for it to catch up. And even then, it sounds like COGS will inch lower toward the end of the year more disproportionately from revenue growth when some headwinds from COVID-19 on the back-end packaging and testing ease and when front-end cost-downs from node transitions fully mature.\nSo, analyzing DOI touches on two significant facets of Micron's business: inventory and revenue. Remember, inventory rises in down parts of cycles. But, inventory is expected to be under pressure for the majority of the fiscal year, and even after that, only expected to be at \"normal\" levels (around 100 days).\nCapEx Guides FY22 Revenue\nThe first thing the market likely saw was the \"dramatic\" increase in CapEx for FY22 over FY21. FY21 saw $9.7B in CapEx, and the company is guiding for $11-$12B in CapEx for FY22. And just when everyone is thinking demand is going to wane, Micron is poised to push CapEx higher by 18.5% this fiscal year.\nSound the alarms!\nBut, put it into context. Remember when Micron's CFO Dave Zinsner said CapEx would generally be 30-35% of revenue each fiscal year?\n\n...what we're trying to do from a CapEx intensity is invest somewhere between 30% and 35% of revenue.\n\n\n - Barclays Americas Select Franchise Virtual Conference, May 19th, 2021\n\nSimply taking $11.5B and backing into revenue figures gives us a high-level guide for FY22. That exercise gets us $32.86B for 35% of revenue and $38.35B for 30%. Let's take the low end of revenue and compare it to the year we just had. FY21 finished with $27.71B in revenue, so we're looking at an 18.5% revenue increase, the same amount CapEx is being raised - which was evident based on algebra - so, at the very least, we're expecting over $32B in revenue for FY22.\nThat amount of revenue doesn't foreshadow a downturn.\nBut allow me to drill down further to prove a repeated point I've made about not all CapEx being bearish. The increase is primarily set to be in NAND as NAND has been purposely underinvested as it transitioned to replacement gate in FY20. In FY21, it was bumped a bit, but now management is saying NAND will be back at full investment. At the same time, DRAM equipment manufacturing CapEx will bedownyear-over-year.\nFurthermore, we continue to hear no new wafer starts. The company believes it's still several years away from needing additional wafer starts to supply the demand environment of the future. So with higher CapEx going toward more expensive equipment like EUV and more pilot programs and not much toward increases in bit supply beyond node transitions, the disciplined supply program rages on.\nTherefore, it's hard to argue an increase in CapEx absolutely means throwing off the supply and demand balance in the memory market. Not only is the key the link between revenue and CapEx, but additional investments in back-end packaging and testing only provide upside to the company's margins later on. Add in equipment, like EUV, being very expensive, and it's easy to see higher CapEx isn't what it used to mean. In fact, it likely means abetteryear ahead.\nMicron Forecasts Record FY22 Revenue\nWhen a company discusses record numbers, it means higher numbers - higher than ever. Micron is giving full-year guidance by saying it sees record revenue in FY22. This is not something I've ever heard this management team say before. Who flipped the confidence button in the board room?\n\nBit shipping growth will resume in the second half of the fiscal year,\nand we're planning to deliver record revenue with solid profitability\nin fiscal 2022.\n\n\n - Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO, FQ4 '21 Earnings Call\n\nRecord revenue would mean exceeding the last upcycle in FY18, where the company did $30.39B in revenue. This agrees with my expectations from the CapEx calculations, where the company is shooting for ~$32B in revenue. This would also mean a prolonged decline in pricing is not possible as pricing is a significant factor in Micron's revenue and profitability. If customer inventories remained high past the 2021 calendar year, pricing declines would set in enough that FQ1 would be the highest revenue quarter for FY22 at $7.65B. Even if FQ1 were annualized, it would only amount to $30.6B. Yes, enough to qualify as record revenue, but not if pricing declines have yet to set in. If DRAM pricing is set to collapse, $7.65B would be the high watermark and likely see revenue closer to $7B and $6.5B in quarters as the year goes on. This wouldn't even amount to $27.65B and would come in under what FY21 just amounted to ($27.71B).\nConsidering the confidence to provide full-year guidance (unheard of) along with a dividend, I'd say management has some decent visibility into the demand picture for this new year. What it says about \"smallpockets\" of higher customer inventory must be accurate if this is the case.\nMicron's Gross Margins, The Pièce De Résistance\nThe best news to come out of the guide was the gross margin guidance. In what I find to be the most impressive part of FQ1's guidance, the gross margin guide exactly mirrors what the FQ4 guide was: 47.0% +/- 1%. With revenue set to be sequentially down 7.5% and EPS down ~13%, gross margins coming in the same was not expected but was very bullish.\nSource: Seeking Alpha's version of Micron's FQ3 '21 Press Release\nSource: Seeking Alpha's version of Micron's FQ4 '21 Press Release\nHow is that possible? I wondered the same thing.\nClearly, pricing isn't going to be coming down much in FQ1 for many of its products, if at all.\n\nWhile we will benefit from our node transitions on both DRAM and NAND, we will continue to see near-term headwinds from COVID-related expenses in assembly and packaging. As a result, we expect the gross margins in FQ1 \n to be largely a function of the mix\n.\n\n\n - Dave Zinsner\n\nIf it's dependent on the mix and the gross margins will be identical, well, there must be some product reason. More specifically, the mix must be shifting toward DRAM and more so toward server and cloud, where margins are inherently higher. Having less PC and consumer DRAM can be a blessing in disguise as it doesn't weigh on gross margins due to the thinner margins they tend to carry.\nI can't stress enough how vital the gross margin guide is here as normal circumstances contend a decline in bits shipped and/or average selling prices (ASPs) reduces gross margins with it. However, the mix is working in its favor and reveals many diverse end markets with solid demand remaining elsewhere for CQ4.\nRemember, the market has been hammering the stock due toPC DRAMpricing weakening. The focus on PC DRAM is causing a red herring for investors. Micron is proving weak PC DRAM might take away some revenue with this guide, but other end markets are staying solid and keeping things afloat. Read as: the theory of dependency on PC DRAM has overstayed its welcome.\nMU Stock - Not So Bad After All\nWe wouldn't have been able to glean some of these bullish tenants if Micron guided sequentially higher for FQ1. The diversification away from PC and the robustness of other end markets would have been masked if things went status quo. But because of the weakness in one end market, it opened the window to see how well and how diversified Micron's business has become. When PC is showing weakness, it no longer means everything else must be weak also.\nThis is probably the most bullish downgrade I've seen with Micron over the last several years, if not the most bullish. The tone of Mehrotra and Zinsner was very upbeat, not usual for a team that has guided down before. I remember hearing despair and shakiness in their tone in prior similar situations, but not this time. The team truly believes the coming weakness in pricing, albeit small, will be a short-lived event where the continued strength in demand will continue on the other side.\nI'm inclined to build my Micron position here, given that in just a few short months, the market will start bringing in to view the other side of this PC DRAM pricing blip. And when it does, the stock price will rise in anticipation of it coming to fruition, just like it did for this expected weakness in calendar Q4.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}