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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-27
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-26
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-25
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-25
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-12
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-08
  Awesome [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-07
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-07
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-02
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  ROKU: The Next Step
  Summary ROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time. The stock price d
  ROKU: The Next Step
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-02
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.
  Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the p
  The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.
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[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140293934","repostId":"1110626244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156540427,"gmtCreate":1625232477569,"gmtModify":1631889889449,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156540427","repostId":"1129664890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129664890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625232423,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129664890?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ROKU: The Next Step","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129664890","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.\nThe stock price d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>ROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.</li>\n <li>The stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.</li>\n <li>Astronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.</li>\n <li>We're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.</li>\n <li>Tread lightly with the risks involved.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b00a4fa1d444c1076f1bb7fa30c1199\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Arturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p>\n<p><b>Overview</b></p>\n<p>For those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over&nbsp;50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.</p>\n<p>The company operates through two segments namely platform and player.</p>\n<p>The platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.</p>\n<p>ROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors&nbsp;since listing&nbsp;on the Nasdaq in 2017.</p>\n<p><b>Financials&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b>Top-Line</b></p>\n<p>ROKU reported&nbsp;63.46%&nbsp;in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of&nbsp;40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with&nbsp;101%&nbsp;year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a&nbsp;strategic alliance&nbsp;with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.</p>\n<p>We think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.</p>\n<p><b>User Growth</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660020b92ea61b62566e9ac2ac6cd02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>ROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27f287b57a10fb5d043ef20b96b548a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p>\n<p>To consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.</p>\n<p><b>Bottom-Line</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe252a78a1b9f030d0518689d2bfb148\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731e79eb9769e07f6760b43a0670f444\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"129\"></p>\n<p>Very important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.</p>\n<p><b>Multiples</b></p>\n<p>Seeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on&nbsp;Seeking Alpha)</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Market Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Considering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.</p>\n<p>Another ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Share price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Again, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth&nbsp;181.51%&nbsp;over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of&nbsp;0.3%.</p>\n<p>The cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026ba34f1e658421a653fef0403c2ba5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Analysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.</p>\n<p><b>Use Of Residual</b></p>\n<p>Essential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&amp;A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.</p>\n<p>Let's look at acquisition strategies.</p>\n<p>To start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.</p>\n<p>Secondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.</p>\n<p>Now for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.</p>\n<p>Other uses of capital.</p>\n<p>ROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.</p>\n<p>The early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b8ae004c046f2ab6dae4dc02de6b25c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: Crunchbase</span></p>\n<p>Old House Ventures&nbsp;was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of&nbsp;dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom&nbsp;was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.</p>\n<p>If ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.</p>\n<p><b>Shareholder Value</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf094989971e65038753abbf9d78cb33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p>\n<p>It remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a&nbsp;dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.</p>\n<p><b>Our Take</b></p>\n<p>ROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ROKU: The Next Step</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nROKU: The Next Step\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 21:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437490-roku-the-next-step><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.\nThe stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.\nAstronomical gains in top-line ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437490-roku-the-next-step\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437490-roku-the-next-step","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129664890","content_text":"Summary\n\nROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.\nThe stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.\nAstronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.\nWe're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.\nTread lightly with the risks involved.\n\nArturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment\nOverview\nFor those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over 50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.\nThe company operates through two segments namely platform and player.\nThe platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.\nROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors since listing on the Nasdaq in 2017.\nFinancials \nTop-Line\nROKU reported 63.46% in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of 40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with 101% year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a strategic alliance with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.\nWe think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.\nUser Growth\nSource: Statista\nROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.\nSource: GuruFocus\nTo consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.\nBottom-Line\n\nVery important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.\nMultiples\nSeeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on Seeking Alpha)\n\nMarket Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27\n\nConsidering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.\nAnother ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.\n\nShare price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44\n\nAgain, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth 181.51% over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of 0.3%.\nThe cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.\n\nAnalysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.\nUse Of Residual\nEssential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.\nLet's look at acquisition strategies.\nTo start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.\nSecondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.\nNow for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.\nOther uses of capital.\nROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.\nThe early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.\nSource: Crunchbase\nOld House Ventures was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.\nIf ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.\nShareholder Value\nSource: GuruFocus\nIt remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.\nOur Take\nROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156540876,"gmtCreate":1625232450295,"gmtModify":1631889889463,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562662036291129","authorIdStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156540876","repostId":"1126312436","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126312436","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625212145,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126312436?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126312436","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the p","content":"<p>Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.</p>\n<p>Yet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.</p>\n<p>First, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a&nbsp;new multi-year high&nbsp;Thursday—even amid growing&nbsp;expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.</p>\n<p>“Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”</p>\n<p>Both those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>That means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.</p>\n<p>“Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.</p>\n<p>Peaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&amp;P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&amp;P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.</p>\n<p>“Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 15:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.\nThe S&P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126312436","content_text":"Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.\nThe S&P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.\nYet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.\nFirst, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a new multi-year high Thursday—even amid growing expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.\n“Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”\nBoth those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.\nThat means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.\n“Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&P 500 dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.\nPeaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.\n“Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}