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- flersgflersg
  ·2021-06-29
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  Airbnb: Not A Lot Of Upside At This Stage<blockquote>爱彼迎：现阶段上涨空间不大</blockquote>
  Summary We believe that the upside of owning Airbnb shares is fairly limited. There’s a risk that A
  Airbnb: Not A Lot Of Upside At This Stage<blockquote>爱彼迎：现阶段上涨空间不大</blockquote>
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- flersgflersg
  ·2021-06-29
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Members of Best Short Ideas get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Learn More »</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5c924c06e6e942d2f9570a908bd2cbc\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\"><span>stockcam/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们认为持有爱彼迎股票的上涨空间相当有限。</li><li>爱彼迎可能面临声誉危机，这将对其未来的股价产生负面影响。</li><li>考虑到爱彼迎的交易价格已经是其销售额的近17倍，我们认为现阶段最好避开它。</li><li>在市场上寻找援助之手？Best Short Ideas的成员可以获得应对任何气候的独家想法和指导。了解更多»</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>stockcam/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite being one of the hottest IPOs of the last years, we believe that the upside of owning Airbnb (ABNB) shares is fairly limited. Not only the company will struggle to return to the pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, but there’s also a risk that Airbnb could face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its share price in the future. Considering this and the fact that Airbnb already trades at nearly 17 times its sales, we believe that it’s better to avoid it at the current stage.</p><p><blockquote>尽管是近年来最热门的IPO之一，但我们认为持有爱彼迎（ABNB）股票的好处相当有限。该公司不仅将难以很快恢复到大流行前的水平，而且爱彼迎还面临声誉危机的风险，这将对其未来的股价产生负面影响。考虑到这一点以及爱彼迎的交易价格已经是其销售额的近17倍的事实，我们认为现阶段最好避免这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lots of Challenges Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来面临诸多挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2008 by students B. Chesky, J. Gebbia, and N. Blecharczyk, Airbnb has grown from couch-surfing service to one of the biggest hospitality companies in the world with 5.6 million listings and a market value of ~$90 billion. The company’s stock has appreciated by over 100% since it went public in December 2020 but in recent months Airbnb’s shares have declined by almost 40% since their peak and currently trade around ~$150 per share. Despite this, Airbnb’s stock still had a better performance than the S&amp;P 500 Index in the last few quarters, and at the current market capitalization the company is valued higher than Marriott International (MAR), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), and Hyatt Hotels (H) combined.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎于2008年由学生B.Chesky、J.Gebbia和N.Blecharczyk创立，现已从沙发冲浪服务发展成为世界上最大的酒店公司之一，拥有560万个房源，市值约为900亿美元。自2020年12月上市以来，该公司股价已上涨超过100%，但近几个月来，爱彼迎股价自峰值以来已下跌近40%，目前交易价格约为每股150美元。尽管如此，Airbnb的股票在过去几个季度的表现仍然好于标普500指数，按照目前的市值，该公司的估值高于万豪国际集团(MAR)、希尔顿全球集团(HLT)和凯悦酒店(H)的总和。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef3e4eb912dfcf2991dffb45bb17bbf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the stock had performed relatively well for those who managed to purchase Airbnb right after its IPO, the company’s financials show that its business is still far away from recovering to the pre-pandemic levels. While Airbnb’s management tried to minimize its losses to weather the pandemic by decreasing costs of revenues and optimizing the headcount last year, its R&amp;D expenses were still significantly up Y/Y.</p><p><blockquote>尽管对于那些在爱彼迎首次公开募股后立即购买该股的人来说，该股的表现相对较好，但该公司的财务数据显示，其业务距离恢复到大流行前的水平还很远。尽管爱彼迎管理层去年试图通过降低收入成本和优化员工人数来最大限度地减少损失以应对疫情，但其研发费用仍同比大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, in&nbsp;Q1&nbsp;alone Airbnb reported $1.17 billion in losses, as its major markets haven’t fully opened during the three months, while some countries even tightened movement restrictions, which led to the poor performance of the bottom line. On top of that, Airbnb also spent $377 million on debt repayment, $292 million in connection with the load agreement warrants, $113 million on operating lease assets and office space improvements, and $229 million on its stock-based compensation program.</p><p><blockquote>此外，仅在第一季度，爱彼迎就报告了11.7亿美元的亏损，因为其主要市场在这三个月内尚未完全开放，而一些国家甚至收紧了流动限制，导致盈利表现不佳。除此之外，爱彼迎还花费了3.77亿美元用于债务偿还，2.92亿美元用于负载协议认股权证，1.13亿美元用于经营租赁资产和办公空间改善，2.29亿美元用于股票薪酬计划。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, Airbnb has also reported a negative EBITDA of -$59 million in Q1, while its net operating margin fell to an unprecedented negative value. With such poor results, it’s safe to assume that it will take at least a couple of years for Airbnb’s business to return to its pre-COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，爱彼迎还报告第一季度EBITDA为负5900万美元，而净营业利润率则跌至前所未有的负值。由于业绩如此糟糕，可以肯定的是，爱彼迎的业务至少需要几年时间才能恢复到COVID-19之前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Airbnb is that it seems that it’s not gaining any market share in a post-pandemic world. As travel restrictions are lifted, Americans are looking to travel again and are already preparing for summer vacations. However, according to Statista’s survey, the most popular option of booking accommodations in 2021 is through the accommodation's own website rather than through Airbnb or Booking (BKNG). On top of that, with such a variety of choices and services, it will be significantly harder for Airbnb to outperform its more popular peers due to the lack of a pricing advantage.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎的另一个缺点是，它似乎没有在大流行后的世界中获得任何市场份额。随着旅行限制的取消，美国人希望再次旅行，并已经在为暑假做准备。然而，根据Statista的调查，2021年预订住宿最受欢迎的选择是通过住宿自己的网站，而不是通过爱彼迎或预订（BKNG）。最重要的是，由于缺乏定价优势，爱彼迎将更难超越更受欢迎的同行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425b1811b12027157d4dcd81ba478a0c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"1275\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What’s worse about Airbnb is that according to&nbsp;Bloomberg, the company is paying its clients, who are becoming victims of various crimes inside the booked apartments, millions of dollars for their silence. Bloomberg even found out that the company has a secret department with a budget of over $50 million, whose employees always try to resolve all incidents before they enter a public domain and before the press is involved, in order to keep its reputation intact.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎更糟糕的是，据彭博报道，该公司正在向其客户支付数百万美元，以换取他们的沉默，这些客户正在成为预订公寓内各种犯罪的受害者。彭博社甚至发现，该公司有一个预算超过5000万美元的秘密部门，其员工总是试图在所有事件进入公共领域和媒体介入之前解决这些事件，以保持其声誉完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As a result, hundreds of stories remain unreported, as the company pays to offended clients in exchange for a non-disclosure agreement. By doing so, Airbnb tries to hide facts about unsafe stays in rented apartments and various cases of violence. While so far, this helped Airbnb to avoid a major reputational crisis, it shows that the company’s business model has some major flaws, as it rests on the idea that strangers can trust one another.</p><p><blockquote>结果，数百个故事仍未被报道，因为该公司向被冒犯的客户付费以换取保密协议。通过这样做，爱彼迎试图掩盖在出租公寓中不安全住宿和各种暴力案件的事实。虽然到目前为止，这帮助爱彼迎避免了一场重大的声誉危机，但它表明该公司的商业模式存在一些重大缺陷，因为它建立在陌生人可以相互信任的理念之上。</blockquote></p><p> As the company grows further and the number of available listings increases every day, there’s a risk that there might be a situation where Airbnb won’t be able to silence some of its offended clients and as a result, it will face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its stock.</p><p><blockquote>随着公司的进一步发展，可用上市数量每天都在增加，爱彼迎可能无法让一些被冒犯的客户保持沉默，因此，它将面临声誉危机，这将对其股票产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> Considering all of this, we believe that Airbnb is a risky stock to own, especially since it&nbsp;trades&nbsp;at nearly 17 times its sales. The decline in its shares from the peak a couple of months ago shows that the momentum is slowly fading away and we don’t see a potential for a stock to trade higher from the current levels in the long run anytime soon. In addition, the possible reputational crisis along with the risk of further lockdowns in Europe due to the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 also outweighs the opportunities of owning the company. For that reason, we believe that it’s better to avoid Airbnb at the current levels, as the company faces numerous challenges that will make it even harder for it to recover to its pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们认为爱彼迎是一只有风险的股票，特别是因为它的交易价格接近其销售额的17倍。其股价从几个月前的峰值下跌表明，这种势头正在慢慢消退，我们认为从长远来看，该股短期内没有从当前水平走高的潜力。此外，由于COVID-19德尔塔变异毒株的传播，可能出现的声誉危机以及欧洲进一步封锁的风险也超过了拥有该公司的机会。因此，我们认为最好避免目前水平的爱彼迎，因为该公司面临着众多挑战，这将使其更难在短期内恢复到大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbnb: Not A Lot Of Upside At This Stage<blockquote>爱彼迎：现阶段上涨空间不大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbnb: Not A Lot Of Upside At This Stage<blockquote>爱彼迎：现阶段上涨空间不大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 17:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We believe that the upside of owning Airbnb shares is fairly limited.</li>  <li>There’s a risk that Airbnb could face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its share price in the future.</li>  <li>Considering that Airbnb already trades at nearly 17 times its sales, we believe that it’s better to avoid it at the current stage.</li>  <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Best Short Ideas get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Learn More »</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5c924c06e6e942d2f9570a908bd2cbc\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\"><span>stockcam/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们认为持有爱彼迎股票的上涨空间相当有限。</li><li>爱彼迎可能面临声誉危机，这将对其未来的股价产生负面影响。</li><li>考虑到爱彼迎的交易价格已经是其销售额的近17倍，我们认为现阶段最好避开它。</li><li>在市场上寻找援助之手？Best Short Ideas的成员可以获得应对任何气候的独家想法和指导。了解更多»</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>stockcam/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite being one of the hottest IPOs of the last years, we believe that the upside of owning Airbnb (ABNB) shares is fairly limited. Not only the company will struggle to return to the pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, but there’s also a risk that Airbnb could face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its share price in the future. Considering this and the fact that Airbnb already trades at nearly 17 times its sales, we believe that it’s better to avoid it at the current stage.</p><p><blockquote>尽管是近年来最热门的IPO之一，但我们认为持有爱彼迎（ABNB）股票的好处相当有限。该公司不仅将难以很快恢复到大流行前的水平，而且爱彼迎还面临声誉危机的风险，这将对其未来的股价产生负面影响。考虑到这一点以及爱彼迎的交易价格已经是其销售额的近17倍的事实，我们认为现阶段最好避免这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lots of Challenges Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来面临诸多挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2008 by students B. Chesky, J. Gebbia, and N. Blecharczyk, Airbnb has grown from couch-surfing service to one of the biggest hospitality companies in the world with 5.6 million listings and a market value of ~$90 billion. The company’s stock has appreciated by over 100% since it went public in December 2020 but in recent months Airbnb’s shares have declined by almost 40% since their peak and currently trade around ~$150 per share. Despite this, Airbnb’s stock still had a better performance than the S&amp;P 500 Index in the last few quarters, and at the current market capitalization the company is valued higher than Marriott International (MAR), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), and Hyatt Hotels (H) combined.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎于2008年由学生B.Chesky、J.Gebbia和N.Blecharczyk创立，现已从沙发冲浪服务发展成为世界上最大的酒店公司之一，拥有560万个房源，市值约为900亿美元。自2020年12月上市以来，该公司股价已上涨超过100%，但近几个月来，爱彼迎股价自峰值以来已下跌近40%，目前交易价格约为每股150美元。尽管如此，Airbnb的股票在过去几个季度的表现仍然好于标普500指数，按照目前的市值，该公司的估值高于万豪国际集团(MAR)、希尔顿全球集团(HLT)和凯悦酒店(H)的总和。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef3e4eb912dfcf2991dffb45bb17bbf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the stock had performed relatively well for those who managed to purchase Airbnb right after its IPO, the company’s financials show that its business is still far away from recovering to the pre-pandemic levels. While Airbnb’s management tried to minimize its losses to weather the pandemic by decreasing costs of revenues and optimizing the headcount last year, its R&amp;D expenses were still significantly up Y/Y.</p><p><blockquote>尽管对于那些在爱彼迎首次公开募股后立即购买该股的人来说，该股的表现相对较好，但该公司的财务数据显示，其业务距离恢复到大流行前的水平还很远。尽管爱彼迎管理层去年试图通过降低收入成本和优化员工人数来最大限度地减少损失以应对疫情，但其研发费用仍同比大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, in&nbsp;Q1&nbsp;alone Airbnb reported $1.17 billion in losses, as its major markets haven’t fully opened during the three months, while some countries even tightened movement restrictions, which led to the poor performance of the bottom line. On top of that, Airbnb also spent $377 million on debt repayment, $292 million in connection with the load agreement warrants, $113 million on operating lease assets and office space improvements, and $229 million on its stock-based compensation program.</p><p><blockquote>此外，仅在第一季度，爱彼迎就报告了11.7亿美元的亏损，因为其主要市场在这三个月内尚未完全开放，而一些国家甚至收紧了流动限制，导致盈利表现不佳。除此之外，爱彼迎还花费了3.77亿美元用于债务偿还，2.92亿美元用于负载协议认股权证，1.13亿美元用于经营租赁资产和办公空间改善，2.29亿美元用于股票薪酬计划。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, Airbnb has also reported a negative EBITDA of -$59 million in Q1, while its net operating margin fell to an unprecedented negative value. With such poor results, it’s safe to assume that it will take at least a couple of years for Airbnb’s business to return to its pre-COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，爱彼迎还报告第一季度EBITDA为负5900万美元，而净营业利润率则跌至前所未有的负值。由于业绩如此糟糕，可以肯定的是，爱彼迎的业务至少需要几年时间才能恢复到COVID-19之前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Airbnb is that it seems that it’s not gaining any market share in a post-pandemic world. As travel restrictions are lifted, Americans are looking to travel again and are already preparing for summer vacations. However, according to Statista’s survey, the most popular option of booking accommodations in 2021 is through the accommodation's own website rather than through Airbnb or Booking (BKNG). On top of that, with such a variety of choices and services, it will be significantly harder for Airbnb to outperform its more popular peers due to the lack of a pricing advantage.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎的另一个缺点是，它似乎没有在大流行后的世界中获得任何市场份额。随着旅行限制的取消，美国人希望再次旅行，并已经在为暑假做准备。然而，根据Statista的调查，2021年预订住宿最受欢迎的选择是通过住宿自己的网站，而不是通过爱彼迎或预订（BKNG）。最重要的是，由于缺乏定价优势，爱彼迎将更难超越更受欢迎的同行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425b1811b12027157d4dcd81ba478a0c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"1275\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What’s worse about Airbnb is that according to&nbsp;Bloomberg, the company is paying its clients, who are becoming victims of various crimes inside the booked apartments, millions of dollars for their silence. Bloomberg even found out that the company has a secret department with a budget of over $50 million, whose employees always try to resolve all incidents before they enter a public domain and before the press is involved, in order to keep its reputation intact.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎更糟糕的是，据彭博报道，该公司正在向其客户支付数百万美元，以换取他们的沉默，这些客户正在成为预订公寓内各种犯罪的受害者。彭博社甚至发现，该公司有一个预算超过5000万美元的秘密部门，其员工总是试图在所有事件进入公共领域和媒体介入之前解决这些事件，以保持其声誉完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As a result, hundreds of stories remain unreported, as the company pays to offended clients in exchange for a non-disclosure agreement. By doing so, Airbnb tries to hide facts about unsafe stays in rented apartments and various cases of violence. While so far, this helped Airbnb to avoid a major reputational crisis, it shows that the company’s business model has some major flaws, as it rests on the idea that strangers can trust one another.</p><p><blockquote>结果，数百个故事仍未被报道，因为该公司向被冒犯的客户付费以换取保密协议。通过这样做，爱彼迎试图掩盖在出租公寓中不安全住宿和各种暴力案件的事实。虽然到目前为止，这帮助爱彼迎避免了一场重大的声誉危机，但它表明该公司的商业模式存在一些重大缺陷，因为它建立在陌生人可以相互信任的理念之上。</blockquote></p><p> As the company grows further and the number of available listings increases every day, there’s a risk that there might be a situation where Airbnb won’t be able to silence some of its offended clients and as a result, it will face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its stock.</p><p><blockquote>随着公司的进一步发展，可用上市数量每天都在增加，爱彼迎可能无法让一些被冒犯的客户保持沉默，因此，它将面临声誉危机，这将对其股票产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> Considering all of this, we believe that Airbnb is a risky stock to own, especially since it&nbsp;trades&nbsp;at nearly 17 times its sales. The decline in its shares from the peak a couple of months ago shows that the momentum is slowly fading away and we don’t see a potential for a stock to trade higher from the current levels in the long run anytime soon. In addition, the possible reputational crisis along with the risk of further lockdowns in Europe due to the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 also outweighs the opportunities of owning the company. For that reason, we believe that it’s better to avoid Airbnb at the current levels, as the company faces numerous challenges that will make it even harder for it to recover to its pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们认为爱彼迎是一只有风险的股票，特别是因为它的交易价格接近其销售额的17倍。其股价从几个月前的峰值下跌表明，这种势头正在慢慢消退，我们认为从长远来看，该股短期内没有从当前水平走高的潜力。此外，由于COVID-19德尔塔变异毒株的传播，可能出现的声誉危机以及欧洲进一步封锁的风险也超过了拥有该公司的机会。因此，我们认为最好避免目前水平的爱彼迎，因为该公司面临着众多挑战，这将使其更难在短期内恢复到大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436955-airbnb-not-a-lot-of-upside-at-this-stage\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436955-airbnb-not-a-lot-of-upside-at-this-stage","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106703008","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe believe that the upside of owning Airbnb shares is fairly limited.\nThere’s a risk that Airbnb could face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its share price in the future.\nConsidering that Airbnb already trades at nearly 17 times its sales, we believe that it’s better to avoid it at the current stage.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Best Short Ideas get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Learn More »\n\nstockcam/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nDespite being one of the hottest IPOs of the last years, we believe that the upside of owning Airbnb (ABNB) shares is fairly limited. Not only the company will struggle to return to the pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, but there’s also a risk that Airbnb could face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its share price in the future. Considering this and the fact that Airbnb already trades at nearly 17 times its sales, we believe that it’s better to avoid it at the current stage.\nLots of Challenges Ahead\nFounded in 2008 by students B. Chesky, J. Gebbia, and N. Blecharczyk, Airbnb has grown from couch-surfing service to one of the biggest hospitality companies in the world with 5.6 million listings and a market value of ~$90 billion. The company’s stock has appreciated by over 100% since it went public in December 2020 but in recent months Airbnb’s shares have declined by almost 40% since their peak and currently trade around ~$150 per share. Despite this, Airbnb’s stock still had a better performance than the S&P 500 Index in the last few quarters, and at the current market capitalization the company is valued higher than Marriott International (MAR), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), and Hyatt Hotels (H) combined.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nWhile the stock had performed relatively well for those who managed to purchase Airbnb right after its IPO, the company’s financials show that its business is still far away from recovering to the pre-pandemic levels. While Airbnb’s management tried to minimize its losses to weather the pandemic by decreasing costs of revenues and optimizing the headcount last year, its R&D expenses were still significantly up Y/Y.\nIn addition, in Q1 alone Airbnb reported $1.17 billion in losses, as its major markets haven’t fully opened during the three months, while some countries even tightened movement restrictions, which led to the poor performance of the bottom line. On top of that, Airbnb also spent $377 million on debt repayment, $292 million in connection with the load agreement warrants, $113 million on operating lease assets and office space improvements, and $229 million on its stock-based compensation program.\nOn top of that, Airbnb has also reported a negative EBITDA of -$59 million in Q1, while its net operating margin fell to an unprecedented negative value. With such poor results, it’s safe to assume that it will take at least a couple of years for Airbnb’s business to return to its pre-COVID-19 levels.\nAnother downside of Airbnb is that it seems that it’s not gaining any market share in a post-pandemic world. As travel restrictions are lifted, Americans are looking to travel again and are already preparing for summer vacations. However, according to Statista’s survey, the most popular option of booking accommodations in 2021 is through the accommodation's own website rather than through Airbnb or Booking (BKNG). On top of that, with such a variety of choices and services, it will be significantly harder for Airbnb to outperform its more popular peers due to the lack of a pricing advantage.\nSource: Statista\nWhat’s worse about Airbnb is that according to Bloomberg, the company is paying its clients, who are becoming victims of various crimes inside the booked apartments, millions of dollars for their silence. Bloomberg even found out that the company has a secret department with a budget of over $50 million, whose employees always try to resolve all incidents before they enter a public domain and before the press is involved, in order to keep its reputation intact.\nAs a result, hundreds of stories remain unreported, as the company pays to offended clients in exchange for a non-disclosure agreement. By doing so, Airbnb tries to hide facts about unsafe stays in rented apartments and various cases of violence. While so far, this helped Airbnb to avoid a major reputational crisis, it shows that the company’s business model has some major flaws, as it rests on the idea that strangers can trust one another.\nAs the company grows further and the number of available listings increases every day, there’s a risk that there might be a situation where Airbnb won’t be able to silence some of its offended clients and as a result, it will face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its stock.\nConsidering all of this, we believe that Airbnb is a risky stock to own, especially since it trades at nearly 17 times its sales. The decline in its shares from the peak a couple of months ago shows that the momentum is slowly fading away and we don’t see a potential for a stock to trade higher from the current levels in the long run anytime soon. In addition, the possible reputational crisis along with the risk of further lockdowns in Europe due to the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 also outweighs the opportunities of owning the company. For that reason, we believe that it’s better to avoid Airbnb at the current levels, as the company faces numerous challenges that will make it even harder for it to recover to its pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ABNB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159601325,"gmtCreate":1624959452067,"gmtModify":1633946517191,"author":{"id":"3571022441007124","authorId":"3571022441007124","name":"flersg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c6ea16f7b570c4380b80f32bb5a266","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571022441007124","authorIdStr":"3571022441007124"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159601325","repostId":"2146388793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}