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- 赢赢啊赢赢啊
  ·2021-07-02
  阿里巴巴
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 赢赢啊赢赢啊
  ·2021-07-02
  $Salesforce(CRM)$冲呀
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- 赢赢啊赢赢啊
  ·2021-02-14
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$冲鸭
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- 赢赢啊赢赢啊
  ·2021-02-11
  冲鸭
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- 赢赢啊赢赢啊
  ·2021-02-11
  欢乐
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- 赢赢啊赢赢啊
  ·2021-02-10
  $有道(DAO)$冲鸭
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- 赢赢啊赢赢啊
  ·2021-02-07
  苹果
  2021年的“阿尔法”在哪里？私募大佬如是说
  大类资产配置的热门讨论
  2021年的“阿尔法”在哪里？私募大佬如是说
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- 赢赢啊赢赢啊
  ·2021-02-07
  不要放弃呀
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 赢赢啊赢赢啊
  ·2021-02-06
  $Express(EXPR)$怎么办呀求助
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- 赢赢啊赢赢啊
  ·2021-02-05
  搞事情
  “就地过年”将如何影响大宗商品价格？
  鼠年金融市场交易仅剩四个交易日。“就地过年”将对宏观经济及相关产业产生怎样的影响？大宗商品中有哪些板块受益？行业人士认为，“就地过年”意味着今年不会出现大规模劳动力流动的现象，对消费的影响类似去年，“
  “就地过年”将如何影响大宗商品价格？
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16:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"2021年的“阿尔法”在哪里？私募大佬如是说","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2109701664","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大类资产配置的热门讨论","content":"<p>2021年大类资产配置的关键是什么？</p><p>在各大类资产均有显著涨幅后，2021年的“阿尔法”（超额收益机会）又在哪里？</p><p>近日，由朝阳永续主办的2020年度（第十五届）中国私募基金风云榜的策略论坛上，由半夏投资创始人李蓓担任主持人，知名私募从容投资、百亿债券私募银叶投资以及量化私募黑翼资产的合伙人一起围绕上述热门话题展开了精彩的讨论。</p><p><b>投资“右下角”的资产</b></p><p>从容投资董事长吕俊指出，2020年大类资产均出现上涨，处于估值区间靠上的位置。但要看到，债券资产仍处于便宜的位置，具有配置价值。</p><p>过去两年A股涨了很多，但并不是“全面的贵”，去年沪深300指数涨了20%，但涨幅集中于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603288\">海天味业</a>等核心资产，有大量的股票跌幅明显。因此，我们要去投资“右下角”的资产，在没涨的股票中挖掘机会。这反映了股票资产内部分化非常严重，整体市场的估值高，并没有发展到完全没有机会的程度。</p><p>吕俊还指出，虽然连续两年股市收益可观，但并不代表2021年机会就少。建议投资者不要乱折腾，特别是基金持有人要相信管理人的判断，更不要追随明星基金经理抄作业。</p><p><b>另类投资机会最大</b></p><p>百亿债券私募银叶投资许巳阳指出，2016年-2018年监管层主导去杠杆，市场在2018年出现“一半海水一半火焰”的情景，“火焰”就是指利率债资产，逐渐回到绝对值低点。</p><p>上个星期，中国央行的表态再次造成债券延续下跌局面。未来投资机会在利率债，现在正处于左侧阶段。如果十年期国债利率回到3.5%，这个水平处于过去二十年的中轴位置，今年存在波段做多的机会。要看到央行有着预期管理，全年有50个点的波动机会，需要投资者把握。</p><p>换言之，十年期国债利率到了3.5%才可能存在利率债交易机会，因此可预期的机会窗口是下半年，拐点还未出现。</p><p>今年上半年，我们将继续看到中国个人投资者200万亿财富持续转移，不断进入权益资产，风险偏好仍会上升。</p><p>债券资产最有显著机会的是不良资产和高收益债，属于一种另类投资。去年AAA国企信用风险暴露，央行投放了流动性，部分高收益债和不良资产出现好价格。</p><p>由于当前信用债市场容量很大，信用利差不大，但仍有阿尔法机会，市场阶段性承压的时候能够选到好券。</p><p>一个可以观望的拐点是今年年中。上半年经济预期将同比向上，央行流动性的方向盘转向将在上半年完成，债券在基金面也有出现高波动；此外，拜登上台后推出强刺激计划，将带来外需提振，幅度可能超预期，对中国出口规模也会有影响。</p><p><b>看好沪深300增强策略</b></p><p>黑翼资产合伙人邹倚天指出：今年沪深300指数增强的机会大于中证500。但近两年来，中证500增强策略的阿尔法都在衰减。</p><p>一个重要的问题是：2020年初量化私募资产从2000亿扩展至5000亿，直接影响到市场的阿尔法。目前，沪深300指数增强做的偏少，均集中于中证500增强，因此存在投资机会。</p><p>目前支持高频阿尔法策略的难度加大，整个因子的迭代速度非常快，未来量化要采取多元化的因子，包括偏市场行为的因子、动量因子、基本面因子和分析师因子。</p><p>量化基金的回报水平难以单看一年表现，量化策略不押注任何市场风格和行业，持仓有500-1000只股票，因此以三到五年为考察周期。</p><p>如果谈量化投资风险，主要就是策略过于拥挤，产生策略同质化，因此要确保管理人的策略容量与管理规模匹配，研发低相关性的策略。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021年的“阿尔法”在哪里？私募大佬如是说\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-07 16:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619790><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2021年大类资产配置的关键是什么？在各大类资产均有显著涨幅后，2021年的“阿尔法”（超额收益机会）又在哪里？近日，由朝阳永续主办的2020年度（第十五届）中国私募基金风云榜的策略论坛上，由半夏投资创始人李蓓担任主持人，知名私募从容投资、百亿债券私募银叶投资以及量化私募黑翼资产的合伙人一起围绕上述热门话题展开了精彩的讨论。投资“右下角”的资产从容投资董事长吕俊指出，2020年大类资产均出现上涨，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619790\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af47ab6c10e46f0aea6733871f311696","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619790","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2109701664","content_text":"2021年大类资产配置的关键是什么？在各大类资产均有显著涨幅后，2021年的“阿尔法”（超额收益机会）又在哪里？近日，由朝阳永续主办的2020年度（第十五届）中国私募基金风云榜的策略论坛上，由半夏投资创始人李蓓担任主持人，知名私募从容投资、百亿债券私募银叶投资以及量化私募黑翼资产的合伙人一起围绕上述热门话题展开了精彩的讨论。投资“右下角”的资产从容投资董事长吕俊指出，2020年大类资产均出现上涨，处于估值区间靠上的位置。但要看到，债券资产仍处于便宜的位置，具有配置价值。过去两年A股涨了很多，但并不是“全面的贵”，去年沪深300指数涨了20%，但涨幅集中于贵州茅台、海天味业等核心资产，有大量的股票跌幅明显。因此，我们要去投资“右下角”的资产，在没涨的股票中挖掘机会。这反映了股票资产内部分化非常严重，整体市场的估值高，并没有发展到完全没有机会的程度。吕俊还指出，虽然连续两年股市收益可观，但并不代表2021年机会就少。建议投资者不要乱折腾，特别是基金持有人要相信管理人的判断，更不要追随明星基金经理抄作业。另类投资机会最大百亿债券私募银叶投资许巳阳指出，2016年-2018年监管层主导去杠杆，市场在2018年出现“一半海水一半火焰”的情景，“火焰”就是指利率债资产，逐渐回到绝对值低点。上个星期，中国央行的表态再次造成债券延续下跌局面。未来投资机会在利率债，现在正处于左侧阶段。如果十年期国债利率回到3.5%，这个水平处于过去二十年的中轴位置，今年存在波段做多的机会。要看到央行有着预期管理，全年有50个点的波动机会，需要投资者把握。换言之，十年期国债利率到了3.5%才可能存在利率债交易机会，因此可预期的机会窗口是下半年，拐点还未出现。今年上半年，我们将继续看到中国个人投资者200万亿财富持续转移，不断进入权益资产，风险偏好仍会上升。债券资产最有显著机会的是不良资产和高收益债，属于一种另类投资。去年AAA国企信用风险暴露，央行投放了流动性，部分高收益债和不良资产出现好价格。由于当前信用债市场容量很大，信用利差不大，但仍有阿尔法机会，市场阶段性承压的时候能够选到好券。一个可以观望的拐点是今年年中。上半年经济预期将同比向上，央行流动性的方向盘转向将在上半年完成，债券在基金面也有出现高波动；此外，拜登上台后推出强刺激计划，将带来外需提振，幅度可能超预期，对中国出口规模也会有影响。看好沪深300增强策略黑翼资产合伙人邹倚天指出：今年沪深300指数增强的机会大于中证500。但近两年来，中证500增强策略的阿尔法都在衰减。一个重要的问题是：2020年初量化私募资产从2000亿扩展至5000亿，直接影响到市场的阿尔法。目前，沪深300指数增强做的偏少，均集中于中证500增强，因此存在投资机会。目前支持高频阿尔法策略的难度加大，整个因子的迭代速度非常快，未来量化要采取多元化的因子，包括偏市场行为的因子、动量因子、基本面因子和分析师因子。量化基金的回报水平难以单看一年表现，量化策略不押注任何市场风格和行业，持仓有500-1000只股票，因此以三到五年为考察周期。如果谈量化投资风险，主要就是策略过于拥挤，产生策略同质化，因此要确保管理人的策略容量与管理规模匹配，研发低相关性的策略。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389374329,"gmtCreate":1612704947461,"gmtModify":1703764382962,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不要放弃呀","listText":"不要放弃呀","text":"不要放弃呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389374329","repostId":"1184379788","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380768956,"gmtCreate":1612592959975,"gmtModify":1703763907706,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a417d8f8304a2523b37c365f8d5a1a0","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8SqauLUTjqaeqhCJstI-6w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129514955","content_text":"鼠年金融市场交易仅剩四个交易日。“就地过年”将对宏观经济及相关产业产生怎样的影响？大宗商品中有哪些板块受益？行业人士认为，“就地过年”意味着今年不会出现大规模劳动力流动的现象，对消费的影响类似去年，“宅经济”、医药防疫、在线教育娱乐是最受益的三个行业，但对生产的影响却时全新的、不同的。\n从产业链供需看，劳动密集的中游制造生产最为持续，由此带动上游基础材料需求增长，终端制造需区分产品需求的可持续性，按受益幅度，依次包括中游制造（机械、建筑）＞基础材料（采掘、有色、钢铁、化纤）＞终端制造（电子设备、家具）。\n从用工人数来看，建筑业最受益，然后是基础材料、采掘、有色、钢铁行业。受影响最大的是以服务业为主的第三产业。尽管金融业和房地产业几乎不会受到“就地过年”政策的影响，但住宿餐饮、交通运输、零售批发、信息软件和租赁等服务业都将受到不同程度的影响。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}