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- BenstonkBenstonk
  ·2021-12-16
  Bullish for $Arrival(ARVL)$INNOVATION IS ALIVE
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- BenstonkBenstonk
  ·2021-12-16
  $ARK Multi-Sector(ARKG)$genome editing isnext gen
  1,754 评论
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- BenstonkBenstonk
  ·2021-12-15
  PDF is free!
  Why Adobe Stock Fell Nearly 7%
  What happened Shares of creativity software leader Adobe(NASDAQ:ADBE)were down by 6.6% as of 4 p.m.
  Why Adobe Stock Fell Nearly 7%
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- BenstonkBenstonk
  ·2021-12-13
  $Logitech International SA(LOGI)$LOGITECH is going to be the best Xmas gift
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- BenstonkBenstonk
  ·2021-12-13
  $Intel(INTC)$Intelligent choice is to buy and hold
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- BenstonkBenstonk
  ·2021-12-13
  $Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$Great gaming company with stable growth
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- BenstonkBenstonk
  ·2021-12-13
  $Arrival(ARVL)$It’s arriving soon!!!!
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- BenstonkBenstonk
  ·2021-12-11
  200 buy what sia
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- BenstonkBenstonk
  ·2021-12-10
  Nice
  The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst
  In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will be
  The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst
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- BenstonkBenstonk
  ·2021-12-10
  $GameStop(GME)$definitely
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">$Arrival(ARVL)$</a>INNOVATION IS ALIVE","listText":"Bullish for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">$Arrival(ARVL)$</a>INNOVATION IS ALIVE","text":"Bullish for $Arrival(ARVL)$INNOVATION IS ALIVE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690624137","repostId":"2191917554","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690832700,"gmtCreate":1639653068290,"gmtModify":1639653087328,"author":{"id":"3574851080358491","authorId":"3574851080358491","name":"Benstonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a964cfa9223e4704989c9a4b9b772e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574851080358491","authorIdStr":"3574851080358491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKG\">$ARK Multi-Sector(ARKG)$</a>genome editing isnext gen","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKG\">$ARK Multi-Sector(ARKG)$</a>genome editing isnext gen","text":"$ARK Multi-Sector(ARKG)$genome editing isnext gen","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690832700","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607235976,"gmtCreate":1639543582368,"gmtModify":1639543583060,"author":{"id":"3574851080358491","authorId":"3574851080358491","name":"Benstonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a964cfa9223e4704989c9a4b9b772e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574851080358491","authorIdStr":"3574851080358491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"PDF is free!","listText":"PDF is free!","text":"PDF is free!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607235976","repostId":"1126353314","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126353314","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639536208,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126353314?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 10:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Adobe Stock Fell Nearly 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126353314","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"What happened\nShares of creativity software leader Adobe(NASDAQ:ADBE)were down by 6.6% as of 4 p.m. ","content":"<p><b>What happened</b></p>\n<p>Shares of creativity software leader&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>(NASDAQ:ADBE)were down by 6.6% as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday. The culprit may have been&nbsp;<b>JPMorgan Chase</b>&nbsp;stock analyst Sterling Auty, who downgraded the stock to neutral and put a $680 one-year price target on it. Adobe and some of its software peers were hit by the prognosticator's view that there will be limited upside for them in 2022.</p>\n<p><b>So what</b></p>\n<p>Investors should always take individual predictions about stocks' near-term price movements with a grain of salt. Adobe will report its fiscal 2021 fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Thursday. During its fiscal Q3, which ended Sept. 3, revenue rose 22% year over year to $3.94 billion, and management predicted the Q4 pace of growth would also be in the low 20% range.</p>\n<p>Because Adobe is a mature software firm, its profitability tends to grow at an even faster rate than its revenue does (since each incremental software sale adds little in the way of new expenses, when excluding the company's spending on expansion initiatives). For example, adjusted earnings per share rose 28% in fiscal Q3. Based on management's guidance for fiscal Q4, adjusted earnings per share will only rise by about 13% year over year. But even if Adobe doesn't beat its own outlook, its full-year adjusted earnings would still be up by a very healthy mid-20% amount.</p>\n<p><b>Now what</b></p>\n<p>Since it's the end of its fiscal year, Adobe's management will also provide its initial guidance for its fiscal 2022 on its earnings call. The company will be lapping a strong 2021, but this long-term shareholder is optimistic. With digital creators beginning to build next-gen experiences for the web, streaming video services, and the workplace, demand for creativity software isn't going to abate any time soon.</p>\n<p>This bodes well for Adobe's continued success. The&nbsp;cloud-computing company&nbsp;has built itself into a&nbsp;hub for digital transformation, helping its users unlock new efficiencies and update their digital toolsets. Trillions of additional dollars will be spent on digital transformation in the coming decade, and capturing even a small fraction of that will deliver big gains for Adobe. 2022 may or may not be great for Adobe stock, but investors should stay focused on this company's potential over periods of many years -- not just one.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Adobe Stock Fell Nearly 7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Adobe Stock Fell Nearly 7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-15 10:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/14/why-adobe-stock-fell-nearly-8-today/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happened\nShares of creativity software leader Adobe(NASDAQ:ADBE)were down by 6.6% as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday. The culprit may have been JPMorgan Chase stock analyst Sterling Auty, who downgraded the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/14/why-adobe-stock-fell-nearly-8-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/14/why-adobe-stock-fell-nearly-8-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126353314","content_text":"What happened\nShares of creativity software leader Adobe(NASDAQ:ADBE)were down by 6.6% as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday. The culprit may have been JPMorgan Chase stock analyst Sterling Auty, who downgraded the stock to neutral and put a $680 one-year price target on it. Adobe and some of its software peers were hit by the prognosticator's view that there will be limited upside for them in 2022.\nSo what\nInvestors should always take individual predictions about stocks' near-term price movements with a grain of salt. Adobe will report its fiscal 2021 fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Thursday. During its fiscal Q3, which ended Sept. 3, revenue rose 22% year over year to $3.94 billion, and management predicted the Q4 pace of growth would also be in the low 20% range.\nBecause Adobe is a mature software firm, its profitability tends to grow at an even faster rate than its revenue does (since each incremental software sale adds little in the way of new expenses, when excluding the company's spending on expansion initiatives). For example, adjusted earnings per share rose 28% in fiscal Q3. Based on management's guidance for fiscal Q4, adjusted earnings per share will only rise by about 13% year over year. But even if Adobe doesn't beat its own outlook, its full-year adjusted earnings would still be up by a very healthy mid-20% amount.\nNow what\nSince it's the end of its fiscal year, Adobe's management will also provide its initial guidance for its fiscal 2022 on its earnings call. The company will be lapping a strong 2021, but this long-term shareholder is optimistic. With digital creators beginning to build next-gen experiences for the web, streaming video services, and the workplace, demand for creativity software isn't going to abate any time soon.\nThis bodes well for Adobe's continued success. The cloud-computing company has built itself into a hub for digital transformation, helping its users unlock new efficiencies and update their digital toolsets. Trillions of additional dollars will be spent on digital transformation in the coming decade, and capturing even a small fraction of that will deliver big gains for Adobe. 2022 may or may not be great for Adobe stock, but investors should stay focused on this company's potential over periods of many years -- not just one.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604252789,"gmtCreate":1639406451741,"gmtModify":1639406454712,"author":{"id":"3574851080358491","authorId":"3574851080358491","name":"Benstonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a964cfa9223e4704989c9a4b9b772e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574851080358491","authorIdStr":"3574851080358491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LOGI\">$Logitech International SA(LOGI)$</a>LOGITECH is going to be the best Xmas gift&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LOGI\">$Logitech International SA(LOGI)$</a>LOGITECH is going to be the best Xmas gift&nbsp;","text":"$Logitech International SA(LOGI)$LOGITECH is going to be the best Xmas gift","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604252789","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604256780,"gmtCreate":1639406377511,"gmtModify":1639406380410,"author":{"id":"3574851080358491","authorId":"3574851080358491","name":"Benstonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a964cfa9223e4704989c9a4b9b772e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574851080358491","authorIdStr":"3574851080358491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a>Intelligent choice is to buy and hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a>Intelligent choice is to buy and hold","text":"$Intel(INTC)$Intelligent choice is to buy and hold","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6e105e40a0f4534639b9ca97e0cae4","width":"1125","height":"3523"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604256780","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604256001,"gmtCreate":1639406325807,"gmtModify":1639406370298,"author":{"id":"3574851080358491","authorId":"3574851080358491","name":"Benstonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a964cfa9223e4704989c9a4b9b772e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574851080358491","authorIdStr":"3574851080358491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">$Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$</a>Great gaming company with stable growth","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">$Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$</a>Great gaming company with stable growth","text":"$Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$Great gaming company with stable growth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604256001","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604251423,"gmtCreate":1639406278063,"gmtModify":1639406360861,"author":{"id":"3574851080358491","authorId":"3574851080358491","name":"Benstonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a964cfa9223e4704989c9a4b9b772e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574851080358491","authorIdStr":"3574851080358491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">$Arrival(ARVL)$</a>It’s arriving soon!!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">$Arrival(ARVL)$</a>It’s arriving soon!!!!","text":"$Arrival(ARVL)$It’s arriving soon!!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604251423","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605509611,"gmtCreate":1639186240845,"gmtModify":1639186241523,"author":{"id":"3574851080358491","authorId":"3574851080358491","name":"Benstonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a964cfa9223e4704989c9a4b9b772e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574851080358491","authorIdStr":"3574851080358491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"200 buy what sia","listText":"200 buy what sia","text":"200 buy what sia","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605509611","repostId":"2190296066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605313737,"gmtCreate":1639111824266,"gmtModify":1639113078804,"author":{"id":"3574851080358491","authorId":"3574851080358491","name":"Benstonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a964cfa9223e4704989c9a4b9b772e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574851080358491","authorIdStr":"3574851080358491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605313737","repostId":"1173696854","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173696854","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639100666,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173696854?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 09:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173696854","media":"Fortune","summary":"In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will be","content":"<p>In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.</p>\n<p>A caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.</p>\n<p>If a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who&nbsp;warned the public&nbsp;that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?</p>\n<p>Consumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!</p>\n<p>As inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.</p>\n<p>To accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed&nbsp;raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.</p>\n<p><b>Pinpointing the moment</b></p>\n<p>One of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.</p>\n<p>Currently,<b>the unemployment rate</b>&nbsp;has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the&nbsp;historical pattern&nbsp;reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746377b702eacfdfaa019222f8161b85\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>The yield curve</b>&nbsp;is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.</p>\n<p>When the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was&nbsp;virtually inverted&nbsp;at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.</p>\n<p>Now the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein&nbsp;jected $4 trillion&nbsp;of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.</p>\n<p>My fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.</p>\n<p>Without price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-10 09:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html><strong>Fortune</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173696854","content_text":"In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.\nA caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.\nIf a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who warned the public that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?\nConsumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!\nAs inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.\nTo accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.\nPinpointing the moment\nOne of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.\nCurrently,the unemployment rate has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the historical pattern reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.\n\nThe yield curve is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.\nWhen the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was virtually inverted at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.\nNow the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein jected $4 trillion of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.\nMy fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.\nWithout price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602714722,"gmtCreate":1639066723072,"gmtModify":1639066723668,"author":{"id":"3574851080358491","authorId":"3574851080358491","name":"Benstonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a964cfa9223e4704989c9a4b9b772e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574851080358491","authorIdStr":"3574851080358491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>definitely","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>definitely","text":"$GameStop(GME)$definitely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602714722","repostId":"2190617302","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}