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- ShaoWiShaoWi
  ·2021-06-17
  Exciting growth company
  Skillz Is Likely To Be On The Reddit Menu<blockquote>Skillz可能会出现在Reddit菜单上</blockquote>
  Summary Skillz is growing rapidly, with the potential for sales to accelerate as the company enhanc
  Skillz Is Likely To Be On The Reddit Menu<blockquote>Skillz可能会出现在Reddit菜单上</blockquote>
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growth company","listText":"Exciting growth company","text":"Exciting growth company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161025812","repostId":"1192239171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192239171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623896975,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192239171?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 10:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Skillz Is Likely To Be On The Reddit Menu<blockquote>Skillz可能会出现在Reddit菜单上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192239171","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSkillz is growing rapidly, with the potential for sales to accelerate as the company enhanc","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Skillz is growing rapidly, with the potential for sales to accelerate as the company enhances monetization and completes the Aarki acquisition.</li>  <li>The company enjoys fantastic margins which should lead to profitability without much struggle. Skillz has enough firepower to sustain several money-losing quarters without any dilution, regardless.</li>  <li>Additionally, the stock is position greatly for a short squeeze based on its technicals, at a time when the Reddit army is actively looking for such opportunities.</li>  <li>We are taking advantage of the increased volatility and high premiums to sell PUTs with the potential for massive returns.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17fc8399c8d3c4d438768450d993051e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Geber86/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Skillz正在快速增长，随着公司加强货币化并完成对Aarki的收购，销售额有可能加速增长。</li><li>该公司享有惊人的利润率，这应该会毫不费力地实现盈利。无论如何，Skillz有足够的火力在没有任何稀释的情况下维持几个亏损季度。</li><li>此外，在Reddit大军正在积极寻找此类机会之际，根据其技术面，该股非常适合做空。</li><li>我们正在利用波动性增加和高溢价出售有可能获得巨额回报的看跌期权。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Geber86/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you have been paying attention to market news lately, you may have noticed the short squeeze frenzy caused by Reddit's Wall Street Bets community. Wall St. Bets Redditors have collectively bought stocks featuring a high short interest in bulk, shooting the so-called \"meme stocks\" to the skies and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>如果你最近一直在关注市场新闻，你可能已经注意到了Reddit华尔街押注社区引发的轧空狂潮。华尔街押注Reddit用户集体购买了大宗空头兴趣较高的股票，将所谓的“模因股票”推向了天空甚至更远的地方。</blockquote></p><p> Examples include the following stocks:</p><p><blockquote>示例包括以下股票：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(NASDAQ:BBBY)</li>  <li>BlackBerry(NYSE:BB)</li>  <li>Virgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE)</li>  <li>Wendy's(NASDAQ:WEN)</li>  <li>Rocket Companies(NYSE:RKT)</li>  <li>ContextLogic(NASDAQ:WISH)</li>  <li>Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)</li>  <li>GameStop(NYSE:GME)</li> </ul> In this article, we want to share our thoughts on another highly shorted stock, Skillz (SKLZ), whose rapid growth and favorable technical indicators are likely to cause a short squeeze. This could send shares soaring in the short term as shorts begin purchasing stock in the panic of potentially higher losses.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Bed Bath&amp;Beyond（纳斯达克：BBBY）</li><li>黑莓（纽约证券交易所代码：BB）</li><li>维珍银河（纽约证券交易所代码：SPCE）</li><li>温蒂（纳斯达克：WEN）</li><li>火箭公司（纽约证券交易所代码：RKT）</li><li>ContextLogic（纳斯达克：WISH）</li><li>Palantir（纽约证券交易所代码：PLTR）</li><li>游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME）</li></ul>在本文中，我们想分享我们对另一只被高度做空的股票Skillz（SKLZ）的想法，该股票的快速增长和有利的技术指标很可能会导致轧空。这可能会在短期内导致股价飙升，因为空头在潜在更高损失的恐慌中开始购买股票。</blockquote></p><p> The possibility that Skillz may become one of the next targets of the Wall Street Bets army due to its high short interest is certainly a welcome factor, though not one we necessarily rely on it.</p><p><blockquote>由于其高空头兴趣，Skillz可能成为华尔街押注大军的下一个目标之一，这当然是一个受欢迎的因素，尽管我们不一定依赖它。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, we won't go through Skillz's business model and growing ecosystem as many S.A. authors have already sufficiently explained the company's merits with great detail. Instead, let's examine why Skillz's growth rates and technical indicators are likely to cause a short squeeze and how we have set up our own position.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我们不会介绍Skillz的商业模式和不断增长的生态系统，因为许多S.A.作者已经非常详细地解释了该公司的优点。相反，让我们研究一下为什么Skillz的增长率和技术指标可能会导致轧空以及我们如何建立自己的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A rapidly growing company</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速发展的公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Skillz&nbsp;deliveredanother quarter of strong performance in Q1, achieving its 21st consecutive quarter of revenue growth. The company generated 92% of revenue growth year-over-year, primarily as a result of 81% growth in paying monthly active users. In addition, we want to highlight that revenue growth was much more substantial than the one achieved in Q1-2020 (67%), suggesting an acceleration.</p><p><blockquote>Skillz在第一季度又一个季度表现强劲，实现了连续21个季度的收入增长。该公司的收入同比增长了92%，主要是由于付费月活跃用户增长了81%。此外，我们想强调的是，收入增长比2020年第一季度的增长（67%）要强劲得多，这表明收入增长正在加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b50edacf11accd9b32fd5c3dc7b8e15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source:Q1 Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第一季度演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hence, the revenue growth projected by analysts over the next couple of years seems a bit gloomier than it should. Especially considering that the company has not even begun monetizing its non-paying users, which could accelerate revenue growth further if it decided to do so.</p><p><blockquote>因此，分析师预测的未来几年收入增长似乎比预期的要黯淡一些。特别是考虑到该公司甚至还没有开始将其非付费用户货币化，如果它决定这样做，可能会进一步加速收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d2f8e90727958c83f790fa5f157ce4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"164\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>As a side note, not monetizing its non-paying users also speaks of two qualities by the company worth. First, Skillz does not attempt to squeeze every bit of extra revenue immediately after its public listing to impress investors quickly. Secondly, the companyoptimizesits marketing budget to acquire paying users, not installs. This is very distinct from other mobile gaming companies that monetize via advertising, mindlessly trying to attract the largest number of eyeballs possible. This tells us that the company is in it for the long term, executing thoughtfully.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>顺便说一句，不将非付费用户货币化也说明了该公司的两个品质。首先，Skillz并不试图在公开上市后立即榨取每一点额外收入来迅速打动投资者。其次，该公司优化营销预算以获取付费用户，而不是安装。这与其他通过广告赚钱的移动游戏公司非常不同，他们盲目地试图吸引尽可能多的眼球。这告诉我们，公司是长期的，执行周到。</i></blockquote></p><p> In any case, analyst expectations make little sense based on the company's current growth trajectory, and we expect sales growth to be more substantial. Moreover, sales growth becomes even more exciting when we consider the company's potential profitability powered by its ultra high-margin business model. The company enjoys gross margins of 94%, which indicates plenty of room for a rich bottom line as the company continues to scale.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，基于该公司目前的增长轨迹，分析师的预期意义不大，我们预计销售额增长将更加可观。此外，当我们考虑到该公司超高利润商业模式推动的潜在盈利能力时，销售增长变得更加令人兴奋。该公司的毛利率为94%，这表明随着公司规模的不断扩大，利润还有很大的空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f0ae33838bdd16f867917a1fe90d9c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"><span>Source:Q1 results</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第一季度业绩</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, the company ended the quarter with a strong balance sheet, including $613 million of cash. The company also recently struck a&nbsp;deal&nbsp;to acquire Aarki for $150 in cash and stock (another catalyst for accelerated revenue growth) as well). Thus, even if the whole company was to be acquired in cash only, Skillz would still have enough gun powder to sustain several quarters of losses (at its current run rate) without the need to raise extra funds.</p><p><blockquote>最后，该公司在本季度末拥有强劲的资产负债表，其中包括6.13亿美元的现金。该公司最近还达成了一项协议，以150美元的现金和股票收购Aarki（这也是收入加速增长的另一个催化剂）。因此，即使仅以现金收购整个公司，Skillz仍有足够的火药来维持几个季度的亏损（以目前的运营速度），而无需筹集额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> We hence don't expect any further dilution, which could support the short case amid the additional sale of shares. This, of course, does not include dilution resulting from more acquisitions, which are going to (hopefully) benefit the company financially, and in which case they are welcome.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计不会出现任何进一步的稀释，这可能会在额外出售股票的情况下支持做空情况。当然，这不包括更多收购导致的稀释，这些收购将（希望）使公司在财务上受益，在这种情况下，它们是受欢迎的。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the company has no debt on its balance sheet to pressure its bottom line further. Considering the fat gross margins, it should not struggle to turn green if the company pursues the profitability road.</p><p><blockquote>最后，该公司的资产负债表上没有债务来进一步给其利润带来压力。考虑到丰厚的毛利率，如果公司追求盈利之路，应该不会很难实现绿色。</blockquote></p><p> When everything is taken into consideration, the stock could easily attract a higher valuation multiple. We believe that Skillz's revenue growth rate and juicy margins could easily support a P/S ratio of around 25, suggesting upside regardless of a possible short squeeze scenario.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑到所有因素时，该股票很容易吸引更高的估值倍数。我们认为，Skillz的收入增长率和丰厚的利润率可以轻松支撑25左右的市盈率，这表明无论可能出现轧空情况如何，都有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd7d35a8374e6800e160c33fa12607a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The technicals and our play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术和我们的发挥</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's move to the technicals, which, combined with Skillz's growth metrics and healthy financials, could result in a short interest decline in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向技术面，结合Skillz的增长指标和健康的财务状况，可能会导致短期内空头兴趣下降。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, we chose to sell PUTs to take advantage of the stock's high volatility, which translates to higher premiums. By selling PUTs here, we are finding the optimum point between a low price (of the underlying stock) and the high volatility (normally, there is a trade-off between the two.)</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们选择卖出看跌期权以利用股票的高波动性，这意味着更高的溢价。通过在这里卖出看跌期权，我们找到了（标的股票的）低价和高波动性之间的最佳点（通常，两者之间存在权衡。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca5826ab6b6cddd6817a265b9bbcc01c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then we are checking most (in this case, all) the main (technical) boxes. One could argue that these don't guarantee anything, of course, but the technicals here are surely looking encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>然后，我们检查大多数（在本例中，所有）主要（技术）框。当然，有人可能会说这些并不能保证任何事情，但这里的技术面看起来确实令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7748749c82392cdecc305f45b2b008ea\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, we are checking the stock's short interest, which is peaking/has peaked.</p><p><blockquote>然后，我们正在检查该股票的空头利息，该利息正在见顶/已经见顶。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34ad6765006c4cc62f648a511949788b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everything combined creates the perfect setup for a short squeeze at a time when the Reddit army is attacking anything that looks like a potential.</p><p><blockquote>当Reddit大军正在攻击任何看起来有潜力的东西时，一切结合在一起，为空头挤压创造了完美的设置。</blockquote></p><p> However, we are always aiming for an additional margin of safety to mitigate our risk and narrow our total return expectations. By selling PUTs, we are not jumping in at all costs. Either making massive returns (see below) on these short-term options or buying the stock at a lower price while enhancing the predictability of our total returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们始终致力于获得额外的安全边际，以降低风险并缩小总回报预期。通过卖出看跌期权，我们不会不惜一切代价买入。要么通过这些短期期权获得巨额回报（见下文），要么以较低的价格购买股票，同时提高我们总回报的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the possible scenarios out of selling our PUTs:</p><p><blockquote>以下是出售看跌期权的可能情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>SELL (to open) SKLZ 07/16/2021 22.50 PUT @ $4.20</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d112fde75fe80aa1197e23191c3885f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>卖出（开仓）SKLZ 07/16/2021 22.50 PUT@$4.20</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>SELL (to open) SKLZ 08/20/2021 22.50 PUT @ $5.50</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1417a9a5e822d9bb64cbf94ac169ab00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>卖出（开仓）SKLZ 08/20/2021 22.50 PUT@$5.50</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Skillz Is Likely To Be On The Reddit Menu<blockquote>Skillz可能会出现在Reddit菜单上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSkillz Is Likely To Be On The Reddit Menu<blockquote>Skillz可能会出现在Reddit菜单上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 10:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Skillz is growing rapidly, with the potential for sales to accelerate as the company enhances monetization and completes the Aarki acquisition.</li>  <li>The company enjoys fantastic margins which should lead to profitability without much struggle. Skillz has enough firepower to sustain several money-losing quarters without any dilution, regardless.</li>  <li>Additionally, the stock is position greatly for a short squeeze based on its technicals, at a time when the Reddit army is actively looking for such opportunities.</li>  <li>We are taking advantage of the increased volatility and high premiums to sell PUTs with the potential for massive returns.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17fc8399c8d3c4d438768450d993051e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Geber86/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Skillz正在快速增长，随着公司加强货币化并完成对Aarki的收购，销售额有可能加速增长。</li><li>该公司享有惊人的利润率，这应该会毫不费力地实现盈利。无论如何，Skillz有足够的火力在没有任何稀释的情况下维持几个亏损季度。</li><li>此外，在Reddit大军正在积极寻找此类机会之际，根据其技术面，该股非常适合做空。</li><li>我们正在利用波动性增加和高溢价出售有可能获得巨额回报的看跌期权。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Geber86/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you have been paying attention to market news lately, you may have noticed the short squeeze frenzy caused by Reddit's Wall Street Bets community. Wall St. Bets Redditors have collectively bought stocks featuring a high short interest in bulk, shooting the so-called \"meme stocks\" to the skies and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>如果你最近一直在关注市场新闻，你可能已经注意到了Reddit华尔街押注社区引发的轧空狂潮。华尔街押注Reddit用户集体购买了大宗空头兴趣较高的股票，将所谓的“模因股票”推向了天空甚至更远的地方。</blockquote></p><p> Examples include the following stocks:</p><p><blockquote>示例包括以下股票：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(NASDAQ:BBBY)</li>  <li>BlackBerry(NYSE:BB)</li>  <li>Virgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE)</li>  <li>Wendy's(NASDAQ:WEN)</li>  <li>Rocket Companies(NYSE:RKT)</li>  <li>ContextLogic(NASDAQ:WISH)</li>  <li>Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)</li>  <li>GameStop(NYSE:GME)</li> </ul> In this article, we want to share our thoughts on another highly shorted stock, Skillz (SKLZ), whose rapid growth and favorable technical indicators are likely to cause a short squeeze. This could send shares soaring in the short term as shorts begin purchasing stock in the panic of potentially higher losses.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Bed Bath&amp;Beyond（纳斯达克：BBBY）</li><li>黑莓（纽约证券交易所代码：BB）</li><li>维珍银河（纽约证券交易所代码：SPCE）</li><li>温蒂（纳斯达克：WEN）</li><li>火箭公司（纽约证券交易所代码：RKT）</li><li>ContextLogic（纳斯达克：WISH）</li><li>Palantir（纽约证券交易所代码：PLTR）</li><li>游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME）</li></ul>在本文中，我们想分享我们对另一只被高度做空的股票Skillz（SKLZ）的想法，该股票的快速增长和有利的技术指标很可能会导致轧空。这可能会在短期内导致股价飙升，因为空头在潜在更高损失的恐慌中开始购买股票。</blockquote></p><p> The possibility that Skillz may become one of the next targets of the Wall Street Bets army due to its high short interest is certainly a welcome factor, though not one we necessarily rely on it.</p><p><blockquote>由于其高空头兴趣，Skillz可能成为华尔街押注大军的下一个目标之一，这当然是一个受欢迎的因素，尽管我们不一定依赖它。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, we won't go through Skillz's business model and growing ecosystem as many S.A. authors have already sufficiently explained the company's merits with great detail. Instead, let's examine why Skillz's growth rates and technical indicators are likely to cause a short squeeze and how we have set up our own position.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我们不会介绍Skillz的商业模式和不断增长的生态系统，因为许多S.A.作者已经非常详细地解释了该公司的优点。相反，让我们研究一下为什么Skillz的增长率和技术指标可能会导致轧空以及我们如何建立自己的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A rapidly growing company</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速发展的公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Skillz&nbsp;deliveredanother quarter of strong performance in Q1, achieving its 21st consecutive quarter of revenue growth. The company generated 92% of revenue growth year-over-year, primarily as a result of 81% growth in paying monthly active users. In addition, we want to highlight that revenue growth was much more substantial than the one achieved in Q1-2020 (67%), suggesting an acceleration.</p><p><blockquote>Skillz在第一季度又一个季度表现强劲，实现了连续21个季度的收入增长。该公司的收入同比增长了92%，主要是由于付费月活跃用户增长了81%。此外，我们想强调的是，收入增长比2020年第一季度的增长（67%）要强劲得多，这表明收入增长正在加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b50edacf11accd9b32fd5c3dc7b8e15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source:Q1 Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第一季度演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hence, the revenue growth projected by analysts over the next couple of years seems a bit gloomier than it should. Especially considering that the company has not even begun monetizing its non-paying users, which could accelerate revenue growth further if it decided to do so.</p><p><blockquote>因此，分析师预测的未来几年收入增长似乎比预期的要黯淡一些。特别是考虑到该公司甚至还没有开始将其非付费用户货币化，如果它决定这样做，可能会进一步加速收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d2f8e90727958c83f790fa5f157ce4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"164\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>As a side note, not monetizing its non-paying users also speaks of two qualities by the company worth. First, Skillz does not attempt to squeeze every bit of extra revenue immediately after its public listing to impress investors quickly. Secondly, the companyoptimizesits marketing budget to acquire paying users, not installs. This is very distinct from other mobile gaming companies that monetize via advertising, mindlessly trying to attract the largest number of eyeballs possible. This tells us that the company is in it for the long term, executing thoughtfully.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>顺便说一句，不将非付费用户货币化也说明了该公司的两个品质。首先，Skillz并不试图在公开上市后立即榨取每一点额外收入来迅速打动投资者。其次，该公司优化营销预算以获取付费用户，而不是安装。这与其他通过广告赚钱的移动游戏公司非常不同，他们盲目地试图吸引尽可能多的眼球。这告诉我们，公司是长期的，执行周到。</i></blockquote></p><p> In any case, analyst expectations make little sense based on the company's current growth trajectory, and we expect sales growth to be more substantial. Moreover, sales growth becomes even more exciting when we consider the company's potential profitability powered by its ultra high-margin business model. The company enjoys gross margins of 94%, which indicates plenty of room for a rich bottom line as the company continues to scale.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，基于该公司目前的增长轨迹，分析师的预期意义不大，我们预计销售额增长将更加可观。此外，当我们考虑到该公司超高利润商业模式推动的潜在盈利能力时，销售增长变得更加令人兴奋。该公司的毛利率为94%，这表明随着公司规模的不断扩大，利润还有很大的空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f0ae33838bdd16f867917a1fe90d9c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"><span>Source:Q1 results</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第一季度业绩</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, the company ended the quarter with a strong balance sheet, including $613 million of cash. The company also recently struck a&nbsp;deal&nbsp;to acquire Aarki for $150 in cash and stock (another catalyst for accelerated revenue growth) as well). Thus, even if the whole company was to be acquired in cash only, Skillz would still have enough gun powder to sustain several quarters of losses (at its current run rate) without the need to raise extra funds.</p><p><blockquote>最后，该公司在本季度末拥有强劲的资产负债表，其中包括6.13亿美元的现金。该公司最近还达成了一项协议，以150美元的现金和股票收购Aarki（这也是收入加速增长的另一个催化剂）。因此，即使仅以现金收购整个公司，Skillz仍有足够的火药来维持几个季度的亏损（以目前的运营速度），而无需筹集额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> We hence don't expect any further dilution, which could support the short case amid the additional sale of shares. This, of course, does not include dilution resulting from more acquisitions, which are going to (hopefully) benefit the company financially, and in which case they are welcome.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计不会出现任何进一步的稀释，这可能会在额外出售股票的情况下支持做空情况。当然，这不包括更多收购导致的稀释，这些收购将（希望）使公司在财务上受益，在这种情况下，它们是受欢迎的。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the company has no debt on its balance sheet to pressure its bottom line further. Considering the fat gross margins, it should not struggle to turn green if the company pursues the profitability road.</p><p><blockquote>最后，该公司的资产负债表上没有债务来进一步给其利润带来压力。考虑到丰厚的毛利率，如果公司追求盈利之路，应该不会很难实现绿色。</blockquote></p><p> When everything is taken into consideration, the stock could easily attract a higher valuation multiple. We believe that Skillz's revenue growth rate and juicy margins could easily support a P/S ratio of around 25, suggesting upside regardless of a possible short squeeze scenario.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑到所有因素时，该股票很容易吸引更高的估值倍数。我们认为，Skillz的收入增长率和丰厚的利润率可以轻松支撑25左右的市盈率，这表明无论可能出现轧空情况如何，都有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd7d35a8374e6800e160c33fa12607a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The technicals and our play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术和我们的发挥</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's move to the technicals, which, combined with Skillz's growth metrics and healthy financials, could result in a short interest decline in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向技术面，结合Skillz的增长指标和健康的财务状况，可能会导致短期内空头兴趣下降。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, we chose to sell PUTs to take advantage of the stock's high volatility, which translates to higher premiums. By selling PUTs here, we are finding the optimum point between a low price (of the underlying stock) and the high volatility (normally, there is a trade-off between the two.)</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们选择卖出看跌期权以利用股票的高波动性，这意味着更高的溢价。通过在这里卖出看跌期权，我们找到了（标的股票的）低价和高波动性之间的最佳点（通常，两者之间存在权衡。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca5826ab6b6cddd6817a265b9bbcc01c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then we are checking most (in this case, all) the main (technical) boxes. One could argue that these don't guarantee anything, of course, but the technicals here are surely looking encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>然后，我们检查大多数（在本例中，所有）主要（技术）框。当然，有人可能会说这些并不能保证任何事情，但这里的技术面看起来确实令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7748749c82392cdecc305f45b2b008ea\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, we are checking the stock's short interest, which is peaking/has peaked.</p><p><blockquote>然后，我们正在检查该股票的空头利息，该利息正在见顶/已经见顶。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34ad6765006c4cc62f648a511949788b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everything combined creates the perfect setup for a short squeeze at a time when the Reddit army is attacking anything that looks like a potential.</p><p><blockquote>当Reddit大军正在攻击任何看起来有潜力的东西时，一切结合在一起，为空头挤压创造了完美的设置。</blockquote></p><p> However, we are always aiming for an additional margin of safety to mitigate our risk and narrow our total return expectations. By selling PUTs, we are not jumping in at all costs. Either making massive returns (see below) on these short-term options or buying the stock at a lower price while enhancing the predictability of our total returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们始终致力于获得额外的安全边际，以降低风险并缩小总回报预期。通过卖出看跌期权，我们不会不惜一切代价买入。要么通过这些短期期权获得巨额回报（见下文），要么以较低的价格购买股票，同时提高我们总回报的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the possible scenarios out of selling our PUTs:</p><p><blockquote>以下是出售看跌期权的可能情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>SELL (to open) SKLZ 07/16/2021 22.50 PUT @ $4.20</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d112fde75fe80aa1197e23191c3885f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>卖出（开仓）SKLZ 07/16/2021 22.50 PUT@$4.20</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>SELL (to open) SKLZ 08/20/2021 22.50 PUT @ $5.50</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1417a9a5e822d9bb64cbf94ac169ab00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>卖出（开仓）SKLZ 08/20/2021 22.50 PUT@$5.50</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435106-skillz-stock-sklz-likely-on-reddit-menu\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SKLZ":"Skillz Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435106-skillz-stock-sklz-likely-on-reddit-menu","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192239171","content_text":"Summary\n\nSkillz is growing rapidly, with the potential for sales to accelerate as the company enhances monetization and completes the Aarki acquisition.\nThe company enjoys fantastic margins which should lead to profitability without much struggle. Skillz has enough firepower to sustain several money-losing quarters without any dilution, regardless.\nAdditionally, the stock is position greatly for a short squeeze based on its technicals, at a time when the Reddit army is actively looking for such opportunities.\nWe are taking advantage of the increased volatility and high premiums to sell PUTs with the potential for massive returns.\n\nGeber86/E+ via Getty Images\nIf you have been paying attention to market news lately, you may have noticed the short squeeze frenzy caused by Reddit's Wall Street Bets community. Wall St. Bets Redditors have collectively bought stocks featuring a high short interest in bulk, shooting the so-called \"meme stocks\" to the skies and beyond.\nExamples include the following stocks:\n\nBed Bath & Beyond(NASDAQ:BBBY)\nBlackBerry(NYSE:BB)\nVirgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE)\nWendy's(NASDAQ:WEN)\nRocket Companies(NYSE:RKT)\nContextLogic(NASDAQ:WISH)\nPalantir(NYSE:PLTR)\nGameStop(NYSE:GME)\n\nIn this article, we want to share our thoughts on another highly shorted stock, Skillz (SKLZ), whose rapid growth and favorable technical indicators are likely to cause a short squeeze. This could send shares soaring in the short term as shorts begin purchasing stock in the panic of potentially higher losses.\nThe possibility that Skillz may become one of the next targets of the Wall Street Bets army due to its high short interest is certainly a welcome factor, though not one we necessarily rely on it.\nIn this article, we won't go through Skillz's business model and growing ecosystem as many S.A. authors have already sufficiently explained the company's merits with great detail. Instead, let's examine why Skillz's growth rates and technical indicators are likely to cause a short squeeze and how we have set up our own position.\nA rapidly growing company\nSkillz deliveredanother quarter of strong performance in Q1, achieving its 21st consecutive quarter of revenue growth. The company generated 92% of revenue growth year-over-year, primarily as a result of 81% growth in paying monthly active users. In addition, we want to highlight that revenue growth was much more substantial than the one achieved in Q1-2020 (67%), suggesting an acceleration.\nSource:Q1 Presentation\nHence, the revenue growth projected by analysts over the next couple of years seems a bit gloomier than it should. Especially considering that the company has not even begun monetizing its non-paying users, which could accelerate revenue growth further if it decided to do so.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAs a side note, not monetizing its non-paying users also speaks of two qualities by the company worth. First, Skillz does not attempt to squeeze every bit of extra revenue immediately after its public listing to impress investors quickly. Secondly, the companyoptimizesits marketing budget to acquire paying users, not installs. This is very distinct from other mobile gaming companies that monetize via advertising, mindlessly trying to attract the largest number of eyeballs possible. This tells us that the company is in it for the long term, executing thoughtfully.\nIn any case, analyst expectations make little sense based on the company's current growth trajectory, and we expect sales growth to be more substantial. Moreover, sales growth becomes even more exciting when we consider the company's potential profitability powered by its ultra high-margin business model. The company enjoys gross margins of 94%, which indicates plenty of room for a rich bottom line as the company continues to scale.\nSource:Q1 results\nFinally, the company ended the quarter with a strong balance sheet, including $613 million of cash. The company also recently struck a deal to acquire Aarki for $150 in cash and stock (another catalyst for accelerated revenue growth) as well). Thus, even if the whole company was to be acquired in cash only, Skillz would still have enough gun powder to sustain several quarters of losses (at its current run rate) without the need to raise extra funds.\nWe hence don't expect any further dilution, which could support the short case amid the additional sale of shares. This, of course, does not include dilution resulting from more acquisitions, which are going to (hopefully) benefit the company financially, and in which case they are welcome.\nFinally, the company has no debt on its balance sheet to pressure its bottom line further. Considering the fat gross margins, it should not struggle to turn green if the company pursues the profitability road.\nWhen everything is taken into consideration, the stock could easily attract a higher valuation multiple. We believe that Skillz's revenue growth rate and juicy margins could easily support a P/S ratio of around 25, suggesting upside regardless of a possible short squeeze scenario.\n\nThe technicals and our play\nNow, let's move to the technicals, which, combined with Skillz's growth metrics and healthy financials, could result in a short interest decline in the short term.\nFirstly, we chose to sell PUTs to take advantage of the stock's high volatility, which translates to higher premiums. By selling PUTs here, we are finding the optimum point between a low price (of the underlying stock) and the high volatility (normally, there is a trade-off between the two.)\n\nThen we are checking most (in this case, all) the main (technical) boxes. One could argue that these don't guarantee anything, of course, but the technicals here are surely looking encouraging.\n\nThen, we are checking the stock's short interest, which is peaking/has peaked.\nData byYCharts\nEverything combined creates the perfect setup for a short squeeze at a time when the Reddit army is attacking anything that looks like a potential.\nHowever, we are always aiming for an additional margin of safety to mitigate our risk and narrow our total return expectations. By selling PUTs, we are not jumping in at all costs. Either making massive returns (see below) on these short-term options or buying the stock at a lower price while enhancing the predictability of our total returns.\nHere are the possible scenarios out of selling our PUTs:\n\nSELL (to open) SKLZ 07/16/2021 22.50 PUT @ $4.20\n\nSource: Author\n\nSELL (to open) SKLZ 08/20/2021 22.50 PUT @ $5.50\n\nSource: Author","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SKLZ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}