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- InvestforgetInvestforget
  ·2021-12-16
  $KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$hold or sell?
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- InvestforgetInvestforget
  ·2021-12-16
  Like please
  In a Bad Year for Biotech Stocks, Deals and Vaccines Were Winners
  Biotech stocks have crumbled this year and a number of prominent hedge funds have suffered deep loss
  In a Bad Year for Biotech Stocks, Deals and Vaccines Were Winners
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- InvestforgetInvestforget
  ·2021-12-16
  Like please
  Airbus unseats Boeing to replace aging fleet of Qantas 737s
  CHICAGO (BLOOMBERG) - Airbus clean swept a multi-billion dollar aircraft deal with Qantas Airways in
  Airbus unseats Boeing to replace aging fleet of Qantas 737s
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- InvestforgetInvestforget
  ·2021-12-15
  Like please
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- InvestforgetInvestforget
  ·2021-12-14
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  PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks
  Summary PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap. I wa
  PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks
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- InvestforgetInvestforget
  ·2021-12-12
  Like please
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- InvestforgetInvestforget
  ·2021-12-11
  Like please
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- InvestforgetInvestforget
  ·2021-12-10
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- InvestforgetInvestforget
  ·2021-12-09
  Like please
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- InvestforgetInvestforget
  ·2021-12-08
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AJBU.SI\">$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$</a>hold or sell?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AJBU.SI\">$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$</a>hold or sell?","text":"$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$hold or sell?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690865437","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690380455,"gmtCreate":1639634263034,"gmtModify":1639634799106,"author":{"id":"3575853370111148","authorId":"3575853370111148","name":"Investforget","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a64305a0450ab84353543effbdf867","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853370111148","idStr":"3575853370111148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690380455","repostId":"1151734731","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151734731","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639632498,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151734731?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 13:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"In a Bad Year for Biotech Stocks, Deals and Vaccines Were Winners","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151734731","media":"WSJ","summary":"Biotech stocks have crumbled this year and a number of prominent hedge funds have suffered deep loss","content":"<p>Biotech stocks have crumbled this year and a number of prominent hedge funds have suffered deep losses.</p>\n<p>But some biotech investors are thriving by focusing on mergers, short selling and Covid-19 stocks. Some analysts and investors say these three strategies will prove successful for biotech investors once again in 2022.</p>\n<p>Hedge funds including Perceptive Advisors, OrbiMed Partners, Logos Capital and Cormorant Asset Management run funds that&nbsp;have suffered double-digit percentage losses&nbsp;this year. The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Biotech ETF, an equal-weighted index of biotech stocks, has fallen nearly 23% so far this year, an indication of how widespread the losses have been.</p>\n<p>But biotech investors have benefited from some big takeovers in the sector. One popular hedge-fund investment: GW Pharmaceuticals PLC, a British company that develops cannabinoid-based prescription medicines,was acquired&nbsp;by&nbsp;Jazz Pharmaceuticals&nbsp;in May for over $7 billion.&nbsp;Dicerna Pharmaceuticals&nbsp;was another takeover play that worked for investors during the year.</p>\n<p>GW Pharma rose about 90% during 2021, before it was acquired, while Dicerna, which recently announced plans to be acquired, is up about 72%. And this week,Pfizer&nbsp;Inc.announced it would buyArena PharmaceuticalsInc.,&nbsp;news that&nbsp;almost doubled Arena shares.</p>\n<p>There may be more of these kinds of deals in 2022, investors say, as cash-heavy pharmaceutical companies look to buy growing biotech companies. Smaller biotech companies may be more inclined to sell after suffering in 2021, the investors say.</p>\n<p>Biotech short sellers profited in 2021, as well. Cancer company&nbsp;Rafael HoldingsInc.,which gained interest among individual investors due to early signs it might develop a drug to combat pancreatic cancer, tumbled after reporting disappointing Phase 3 data for its drug and experiencing some executive departures. Rafael is down about 77% so far in 2021.</p>\n<p>Some traders lost money because they hedged their biotech portfolios with bets against the S&amp;P 500, which is up over 20% on the year.</p>\n<p>Of course, Covid-19 vaccine stocks were the stars of 2021, though many have fallen sharply from recent highs.&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;started the year over $100, approached $500 in the summer, and now trades around $275, still up sharply on the year.</p>\n<p>“Anything that’s Covid-related has done well, or at least held up,” says Brad Loncar at Loncar Investments, which created two biotech exchange-traded funds.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11261b7a0f9858c916f503bddf94a00b\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"735\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>A new urgency for booster shots, as well as a potential need for reworked vaccines&nbsp;to protect against Omicron, could boost sales for Moderna,Pfizer&nbsp;and other Covid-19 vaccine companies.</p>\n<p>“There will be a strong and continued push for people to get boosted,” says Michael Yee of Jefferies. He adds that there will be strong consideration from health authorities and others for new versions of an Omicron-specific vaccine.</p>\n<p>Mr. Yee notes that both Moderna and Pfizer have plans to update their vaccines, if needed. But he has long had a “hold” rating on Moderna, due to what he describes as the stock’s already high valuation, a sign that strong prospects for these companies may not lead to strong gains.</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In a Bad Year for Biotech Stocks, Deals and Vaccines Were Winners</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn a Bad Year for Biotech Stocks, Deals and Vaccines Were Winners\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-16 13:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-bad-year-for-biotech-stocks-deals-and-vaccines-were-winners-11639564381?mod=markets_lead_pos5><strong>WSJ</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Biotech stocks have crumbled this year and a number of prominent hedge funds have suffered deep losses.\nBut some biotech investors are thriving by focusing on mergers, short selling and Covid-19 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-bad-year-for-biotech-stocks-deals-and-vaccines-were-winners-11639564381?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-bad-year-for-biotech-stocks-deals-and-vaccines-were-winners-11639564381?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151734731","content_text":"Biotech stocks have crumbled this year and a number of prominent hedge funds have suffered deep losses.\nBut some biotech investors are thriving by focusing on mergers, short selling and Covid-19 stocks. Some analysts and investors say these three strategies will prove successful for biotech investors once again in 2022.\nHedge funds including Perceptive Advisors, OrbiMed Partners, Logos Capital and Cormorant Asset Management run funds that have suffered double-digit percentage losses this year. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF, an equal-weighted index of biotech stocks, has fallen nearly 23% so far this year, an indication of how widespread the losses have been.\nBut biotech investors have benefited from some big takeovers in the sector. One popular hedge-fund investment: GW Pharmaceuticals PLC, a British company that develops cannabinoid-based prescription medicines,was acquired by Jazz Pharmaceuticals in May for over $7 billion. Dicerna Pharmaceuticals was another takeover play that worked for investors during the year.\nGW Pharma rose about 90% during 2021, before it was acquired, while Dicerna, which recently announced plans to be acquired, is up about 72%. And this week,Pfizer Inc.announced it would buyArena PharmaceuticalsInc., news that almost doubled Arena shares.\nThere may be more of these kinds of deals in 2022, investors say, as cash-heavy pharmaceutical companies look to buy growing biotech companies. Smaller biotech companies may be more inclined to sell after suffering in 2021, the investors say.\nBiotech short sellers profited in 2021, as well. Cancer company Rafael HoldingsInc.,which gained interest among individual investors due to early signs it might develop a drug to combat pancreatic cancer, tumbled after reporting disappointing Phase 3 data for its drug and experiencing some executive departures. Rafael is down about 77% so far in 2021.\nSome traders lost money because they hedged their biotech portfolios with bets against the S&P 500, which is up over 20% on the year.\nOf course, Covid-19 vaccine stocks were the stars of 2021, though many have fallen sharply from recent highs. Moderna started the year over $100, approached $500 in the summer, and now trades around $275, still up sharply on the year.\n“Anything that’s Covid-related has done well, or at least held up,” says Brad Loncar at Loncar Investments, which created two biotech exchange-traded funds.\n\nA new urgency for booster shots, as well as a potential need for reworked vaccines to protect against Omicron, could boost sales for Moderna,Pfizer and other Covid-19 vaccine companies.\n“There will be a strong and continued push for people to get boosted,” says Michael Yee of Jefferies. He adds that there will be strong consideration from health authorities and others for new versions of an Omicron-specific vaccine.\nMr. Yee notes that both Moderna and Pfizer have plans to update their vaccines, if needed. But he has long had a “hold” rating on Moderna, due to what he describes as the stock’s already high valuation, a sign that strong prospects for these companies may not lead to strong gains.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690317781,"gmtCreate":1639634152270,"gmtModify":1639634797141,"author":{"id":"3575853370111148","authorId":"3575853370111148","name":"Investforget","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a64305a0450ab84353543effbdf867","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853370111148","idStr":"3575853370111148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690317781","repostId":"2191916563","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2191916563","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639633501,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2191916563?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airbus unseats Boeing to replace aging fleet of Qantas 737s","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191916563","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"CHICAGO (BLOOMBERG) - Airbus clean swept a multi-billion dollar aircraft deal with Qantas Airways in","content":"<div>\n<p>CHICAGO (BLOOMBERG) - Airbus clean swept a multi-billion dollar aircraft deal with Qantas Airways in a blow to Boeing Co. and its 737 Max narrow-body jet.\nThe Australian carrier said Thursday (Dec 16)...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/airbus-unseats-boeing-to-replace-aging-fleet-of-qantas-737s\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbus unseats Boeing to replace aging fleet of Qantas 737s</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbus unseats Boeing to replace aging fleet of Qantas 737s\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-16 13:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/airbus-unseats-boeing-to-replace-aging-fleet-of-qantas-737s><strong>The Straits Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CHICAGO (BLOOMBERG) - Airbus clean swept a multi-billion dollar aircraft deal with Qantas Airways in a blow to Boeing Co. and its 737 Max narrow-body jet.\nThe Australian carrier said Thursday (Dec 16)...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/airbus-unseats-boeing-to-replace-aging-fleet-of-qantas-737s\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4187":"航天航空与国防","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BA":"波音","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4564":"太空概念"},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/airbus-unseats-boeing-to-replace-aging-fleet-of-qantas-737s","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191916563","content_text":"CHICAGO (BLOOMBERG) - Airbus clean swept a multi-billion dollar aircraft deal with Qantas Airways in a blow to Boeing Co. and its 737 Max narrow-body jet.\nThe Australian carrier said Thursday (Dec 16) it plans to buy Airbus's A320neo line of aircraft to replace the 75 aging Boeing 737s that serve as Qantas's domestic workhorses. It will also purchase Airbus A220 planes to replace 20 Boeing 717s that ply regional routes inside Australia.\nThe decision is a coup for Airbus as it races to match Boeing's Max order bonanza by year-end. The European planemaker also landed a commitment from Singapore Airlines for its A350 freighter Wednesday and has an opportunity to make headway with Air France-KLM, which is set to announce replacements for its aging Boeing 737s.\nQantas committed to buy 40 planes with a list price of at least US$4.6 billion before discounts. The carrier also has purchase-right options on 94 additional aircraft spanning more than a decade. In total, the order is set to be the largest in Australian aviation history, the airline said.\nThe fleet decision means Qantas and its low-cost Jetstar division are likely to be flying mostly Airbus planes on their domestic and international networks for decades to come. Boeing's Dreamliner, still favored by Qantas on some popular long-haul routes, is now set to be the U.S. company's main model at the Australian airline.\nQantas shares climbed as much as 2.3 per cent in early trading, before reversing gains to be down 1.2 per cent at A$4.81 at 11:03 a.m. in Sydney, giving the airline a market value of about A$9.1 billion.\nIn a statement, Mr Christian Scherer, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer and Head of International, said competition for the deal with Qantas had \"pushed the boundaries\" of \"operational and financial evaluation.\"\nShares of Chicago-based Boeing fell in New York trading before erasing declines in the wake of a Federal Reserve announcement that it expects to raise interest rates in 2022 at a faster pace than expected.\n\"Although we are disappointed, we respect Qantas' decision and look forward to continuing our long-standing partnership,\" Boeing said in a statement.\nQantas is the latest carrier to bet that travel will eventually rebound even with the threat of the new Covid-19 variant omicron hanging over the world. Virgin Australia, a domestic rival emerging from a restructuring, has already unveiled an order for 25 of Boeing's largest 737 Max model.\nAccording to Mr Alan Joyce, Qantas's chief executive officer, it's a great time to buy aircraft because manufacturers are eager to nail down sales and are offering advantageous pricing.\nThe new aircraft will also reduce fuel and maintenance costs, while cutting carbon emissions. \"This is a clear sign of our confidence in the future,\" Joyce said in the statement. \"We've locked in pricing just ahead of what's likely to be a big uptick in demand for next-generation narrow-body aircraft.\"\nThe Australian flag carrier is eyeing even more planes as it pushes ahead with plans to start long-haul flights halfway around the globe. Non-stop services connecting Sydney with New York and London, a project thrown into doubt by Covid, are due to start as soon as 2024.\nQantas has already picked Airbus's A350-1000 as its preferred aircraft for the flights and is due to decide on a firm jet order in early 2022. Separately, Qantas forecast it will post a fiscal first-half loss of A$250 million to A$300 million.\nWith most of Australia's internal borders now open, domestic capacity is expected to exceed pre-Covid levels in the first six months of next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607260487,"gmtCreate":1639547823205,"gmtModify":1639547823399,"author":{"id":"3575853370111148","authorId":"3575853370111148","name":"Investforget","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a64305a0450ab84353543effbdf867","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853370111148","idStr":"3575853370111148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607260487","repostId":"1181903786","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607019458,"gmtCreate":1639456137571,"gmtModify":1639456137732,"author":{"id":"3575853370111148","authorId":"3575853370111148","name":"Investforget","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a64305a0450ab84353543effbdf867","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853370111148","idStr":"3575853370111148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607019458","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>\n <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>\n <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>\n <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p>\n<p>The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p>\n<p>This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p>\n<p>The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p>\n<p>In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p>\n<p>As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p>\n<p>Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p>\n<p><b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p>\n<p>In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p>\n<p><b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p>\n<p>We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p>\n<p>There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p>\n<p>The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p>\n<p>Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p>\n<p>Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p>\n<p><b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p>\n<p>Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p>\n<p>My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p>\n<p><b>Additional Considerations</b></p>\n<p>I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p>\n<p>First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p>\n<p>Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p>\n<p>The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p>\n<p>When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604058059,"gmtCreate":1639287378922,"gmtModify":1639287379086,"author":{"id":"3575853370111148","authorId":"3575853370111148","name":"Investforget","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a64305a0450ab84353543effbdf867","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853370111148","idStr":"3575853370111148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604058059","repostId":"2190679207","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605552006,"gmtCreate":1639196770822,"gmtModify":1639196771026,"author":{"id":"3575853370111148","authorId":"3575853370111148","name":"Investforget","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a64305a0450ab84353543effbdf867","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853370111148","idStr":"3575853370111148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605552006","repostId":"2190767366","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605322826,"gmtCreate":1639117817439,"gmtModify":1639117817649,"author":{"id":"3575853370111148","authorId":"3575853370111148","name":"Investforget","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a64305a0450ab84353543effbdf867","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853370111148","idStr":"3575853370111148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605322826","repostId":"2190964556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602224009,"gmtCreate":1639030784079,"gmtModify":1639030784263,"author":{"id":"3575853370111148","authorId":"3575853370111148","name":"Investforget","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a64305a0450ab84353543effbdf867","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853370111148","idStr":"3575853370111148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602224009","repostId":"2190169579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602029246,"gmtCreate":1638943503983,"gmtModify":1638943504125,"author":{"id":"3575853370111148","authorId":"3575853370111148","name":"Investforget","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a64305a0450ab84353543effbdf867","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853370111148","idStr":"3575853370111148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602029246","repostId":"2189719656","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}