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- Jackson12572Jackson12572
  ·2021-06-22
  This is really good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Jackson12572Jackson12572
  ·2021-06-22
  This one is going Great
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- Jackson12572Jackson12572
  ·2021-06-22
  Wow
  American investors are trying to buy a UK supermarket. Here's why
  London Britain's fourth biggest supermarket chain Morrisons has become the takeover target of an American private equity firm in the latest sign of a strong appetite among investors for UK assets.Morrisons confirmed over the weekend that New York-headquartered Clayton, Dubilier & Rice last week made an unsolicited offer of 2.30 per share in cash for the grocery retailer. That's a 29% premium to Morrisons' closing price on Friday, giving it a market value of around 5.5 billion .Shares in the co
  American investors are trying to buy a UK supermarket. Here's why
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- Jackson12572Jackson12572
  ·2021-06-16
  Great
  Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets
  Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis
  Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets
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11:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"American investors are trying to buy a UK supermarket. Here's why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116834236","media":"cnn","summary":"London Britain's fourth biggest supermarket chain Morrisons has become the takeover target of an American private equity firm in the latest sign of a strong appetite among investors for UK assets.Morrisons confirmed over the weekend that New York-headquartered Clayton, Dubilier & Rice last week made an unsolicited offer of 2.30  per share in cash for the grocery retailer. That's a 29% premium to Morrisons'  closing price on Friday, giving it a market value of around 5.5 billion .Shares in the co","content":"<p>London (CNN Business)Britain's fourth biggest supermarket chain Morrisons has become the takeover target of an American private equity firm in the latest sign of a strong appetite among investors for UK assets.</p>\n<p>Morrisons confirmed over the weekend that New York-headquartered Clayton, Dubilier &amp; Rice last week made an unsolicited offer of £2.30 ($3.19) per share in cash for the grocery retailer. That's a 29% premium to Morrisons' (MRWSF) closing price on Friday, giving it a market value of around £5.5 billion ($7.6 billion).</p>\n<p>Shares in the company surged more than 30% in London on Monday, taking the share price above the takeover offer and lifting other stocks in the sector. Sainsbury's (JSNSF) and Ocado (OCDDY) climbed over 4%, with Marks &amp; Spencer (MAKSY) rising nearly 3% and Tesco (TSCDF) up more than 1%.</p>\n<p>Morrisons rejected the proposal in its statement on Saturday, saying that it \"significantly undervalued\" the company and its future prospects. Clayton, Dubilier &amp; Rice now has until July 17 to make a firm offer.</p>\n<p>The move comes amid heightened investor activity in UK retail and a spate of takeover bids for British companies, undervalued for years because of poor returns linked to drab growth and a weak pound following the Brexit referendum of 2016.</p>\n<p>In October, Walmart (WMT) sold supermarket chain Asda to European private equity group TDR Capital and the founders of a global convenience store business. Separately, Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky recently increased his stake in Sainsbury's to 10%, adding to speculation that it could be the next takeover target.</p>\n<p>Analysts are speculating that Tesco, Britain's biggest supermarket chain, might also attract a buyer.</p>\n<p>\"The volume of liquidity, reflecting monetary policy, and the uptake of capital by family offices, high net worth investors and private equity, means that even Tesco, with its £18 billion ($25 billion) market capitalization, is not too big to be subject to an offer,\" Clive Black, head of research at Shore Capital said in a note on Monday.</p>\n<p>Sainsbury's and Tesco, which benefited from a surge in demand during lockdowns, are now poised to benefit from a strong economic recovery in Britain following the pandemic. Analysts say shoppers are likely to continue eating more meals at home even with restaurants reopening, particularly as many offices remain closed.</p>\n<p>Tesco CEO Ken Murphy told analysts on a call on Friday that online demand has been \"incredibly resilient even with the easing of restrictions.\"</p>\n<p>\"We expect sales to remain well above pre Covid-19 level through the remainder of the year,\" he added.</p>\n<p>Both leading retailers have also managed to keep costs under control, are generating large amounts of cash and have narrowed price gaps with German discounters Aldi and Lidl, according to Shore Capital's Black.</p>\n<p>This could make them prime targets for the likes of Amazon (AMZN), he added. \"The Asda bid and the Kretinsky investment means that the topic of Amazon's plans will also be one of ongoing discussion around Sainsbury and Tesco,\" Black said.</p>\n<p>The online retailer, which has been expanding its grocery offering since buying Whole Foods in 2017, already has a close relationship with Morrisons, which supplies its Prime and Pantry customers in the United Kingdom with dry, fresh and frozen products.</p>\n<p>But the market is not betting on a rival bid from Amazon. \"There is no indication in the [Morrisons] share price today that Amazon will come in and outbid Clayton, Dubilier &amp; Rice,\" said Russ Mould, investment director at stockbroker AJ Bell.</p>\n<p>With a languishing share price and over £7 billion ($9.7 billion) in assets, including a real estate portfolio worth more than the company's market value, Morrisons \"ticks a lot of private equity boxes,\" he told CNN Business.</p>\n<p>Returning to favor?</p>\n<p>Investor interest in UK assets extends beyond grocers. There have been over 50 bids for UK-listed companies in the last eight months, only six of which have since been abandoned, according to Mould.</p>\n<p>The average premium offered has been 34%, indicating that many of these companies may be undervalued by the market following years of weak shareholder returns. Over the last 12 months, there have been 95 announced offers for UK-listed companies with a combined value of $107 billion, according to Dealogic data.</p>\n<p>\"The UK has consistently underperformed on the global stage since June 2016's Brexit vote and sterling has failed to regain the levels at which it traded before Britain decide to leave the EU,\" Mould said in a recent note. \"That rotten effort may mean that UK stocks are unloved and therefore potentially undervalued,\" he added.</p>\n<p>UK and European stock market indexes stand to benefit from the post-pandemic recovery, given the high representation of companies such as automakers and banks that perform well when the economy is on the upswing.</p>\n<p>They may also offer better value for investors following much more robust gains in US indexes over the past decade, when European markets have been held back by a dearth of tech companies and lackluster economic growth in the region.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 (UKX) has climbed just 26% over the past decade, while Europe's STOXX 600 (SXXL) is up 85%. That compares with a gain of more than 230% for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>American investors are trying to buy a UK supermarket. Here's why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmerican investors are trying to buy a UK supermarket. Here's why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 11:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/investing/morrisons-takeover-approach/index.html><strong>cnn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>London (CNN Business)Britain's fourth biggest supermarket chain Morrisons has become the takeover target of an American private equity firm in the latest sign of a strong appetite among investors for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/investing/morrisons-takeover-approach/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRWSY":"WM Morrison Supermarkets Plc."},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/investing/morrisons-takeover-approach/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116834236","content_text":"London (CNN Business)Britain's fourth biggest supermarket chain Morrisons has become the takeover target of an American private equity firm in the latest sign of a strong appetite among investors for UK assets.\nMorrisons confirmed over the weekend that New York-headquartered Clayton, Dubilier & Rice last week made an unsolicited offer of £2.30 ($3.19) per share in cash for the grocery retailer. That's a 29% premium to Morrisons' (MRWSF) closing price on Friday, giving it a market value of around £5.5 billion ($7.6 billion).\nShares in the company surged more than 30% in London on Monday, taking the share price above the takeover offer and lifting other stocks in the sector. Sainsbury's (JSNSF) and Ocado (OCDDY) climbed over 4%, with Marks & Spencer (MAKSY) rising nearly 3% and Tesco (TSCDF) up more than 1%.\nMorrisons rejected the proposal in its statement on Saturday, saying that it \"significantly undervalued\" the company and its future prospects. Clayton, Dubilier & Rice now has until July 17 to make a firm offer.\nThe move comes amid heightened investor activity in UK retail and a spate of takeover bids for British companies, undervalued for years because of poor returns linked to drab growth and a weak pound following the Brexit referendum of 2016.\nIn October, Walmart (WMT) sold supermarket chain Asda to European private equity group TDR Capital and the founders of a global convenience store business. Separately, Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky recently increased his stake in Sainsbury's to 10%, adding to speculation that it could be the next takeover target.\nAnalysts are speculating that Tesco, Britain's biggest supermarket chain, might also attract a buyer.\n\"The volume of liquidity, reflecting monetary policy, and the uptake of capital by family offices, high net worth investors and private equity, means that even Tesco, with its £18 billion ($25 billion) market capitalization, is not too big to be subject to an offer,\" Clive Black, head of research at Shore Capital said in a note on Monday.\nSainsbury's and Tesco, which benefited from a surge in demand during lockdowns, are now poised to benefit from a strong economic recovery in Britain following the pandemic. Analysts say shoppers are likely to continue eating more meals at home even with restaurants reopening, particularly as many offices remain closed.\nTesco CEO Ken Murphy told analysts on a call on Friday that online demand has been \"incredibly resilient even with the easing of restrictions.\"\n\"We expect sales to remain well above pre Covid-19 level through the remainder of the year,\" he added.\nBoth leading retailers have also managed to keep costs under control, are generating large amounts of cash and have narrowed price gaps with German discounters Aldi and Lidl, according to Shore Capital's Black.\nThis could make them prime targets for the likes of Amazon (AMZN), he added. \"The Asda bid and the Kretinsky investment means that the topic of Amazon's plans will also be one of ongoing discussion around Sainsbury and Tesco,\" Black said.\nThe online retailer, which has been expanding its grocery offering since buying Whole Foods in 2017, already has a close relationship with Morrisons, which supplies its Prime and Pantry customers in the United Kingdom with dry, fresh and frozen products.\nBut the market is not betting on a rival bid from Amazon. \"There is no indication in the [Morrisons] share price today that Amazon will come in and outbid Clayton, Dubilier & Rice,\" said Russ Mould, investment director at stockbroker AJ Bell.\nWith a languishing share price and over £7 billion ($9.7 billion) in assets, including a real estate portfolio worth more than the company's market value, Morrisons \"ticks a lot of private equity boxes,\" he told CNN Business.\nReturning to favor?\nInvestor interest in UK assets extends beyond grocers. There have been over 50 bids for UK-listed companies in the last eight months, only six of which have since been abandoned, according to Mould.\nThe average premium offered has been 34%, indicating that many of these companies may be undervalued by the market following years of weak shareholder returns. Over the last 12 months, there have been 95 announced offers for UK-listed companies with a combined value of $107 billion, according to Dealogic data.\n\"The UK has consistently underperformed on the global stage since June 2016's Brexit vote and sterling has failed to regain the levels at which it traded before Britain decide to leave the EU,\" Mould said in a recent note. \"That rotten effort may mean that UK stocks are unloved and therefore potentially undervalued,\" he added.\nUK and European stock market indexes stand to benefit from the post-pandemic recovery, given the high representation of companies such as automakers and banks that perform well when the economy is on the upswing.\nThey may also offer better value for investors following much more robust gains in US indexes over the past decade, when European markets have been held back by a dearth of tech companies and lackluster economic growth in the region.\nThe FTSE 100 (UKX) has climbed just 26% over the past decade, while Europe's STOXX 600 (SXXL) is up 85%. That compares with a gain of more than 230% for the S&P 500 (SPX).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160866115,"gmtCreate":1623781138137,"gmtModify":1634028306118,"author":{"id":"3578948104264469","authorId":"3578948104264469","name":"Jackson12572","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b127a2ab579717925a7211f897a670","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578948104264469","authorIdStr":"3578948104264469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160866115","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}